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Bingaman Safe, Johnson Dems' Only Threat in Open Seat Race

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Bingaman Safe, Johnson Dems' Only Threat in Open Seat Race FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 8, 2011 INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen) QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312 Bingaman safe, Johnson Dems’ only threat in open seat race Raleigh, N.C. – New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman generally cruises to re-election, and if he chooses to go for a sixth term, he would start off as a heavy favorite. But there has been some speculation he will instead retire. In his stead, Democrats should still be in strong shape to hold his seat unless popular former Governor Gary Johnson declines a run for president to make a bid for Congress’ upper chamber instead. With a 56-27 approval-disapproval margin, Bingaman is more popular at home than all but four of the 77 colleagues which PPP has measured in the last year or so. This strong favor with his voters gives Bingaman formidable odds to walk to re-election, even against Johson, whose 44-32 favorability rating makes him considerably the best liked of the non-Bingaman candidates, and who is almost equally popular with Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Johnson comes closest to beating the incumbent, yet still trails, 51-40. By comparison, Rep. Steve Pearce lags Bingaman, 57-34, and Rep. Heather Wilson trails, 56-37. The Republicans all do what would make them far more competitive in almost any other state: they at least match the incumbent in party unity and take more of his voters from him than he does of theirs. But the Democrats’ 26-point turnout advantage and independents’ Democratic leanings make these matchups blowouts. Bingaman wins unaffiliated voters’ support by 7 points over Johnson, 28 over Wilson, and 30 over Pearce. If Bingaman retires, prospective replacements Reps. Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan would also post strong leads against Pearce and Wilson (53-38 and 50-39 for Heinrich and 49-37 and 48-40 for Lujan). But Heinrich would narrowly lag Johnson, 43-44, and Lujan would fall behind, 40-45. Heinrich and Lujan lose more of their voters to the Republicans than does Bingaman, but they post double-digit leads with independents, except when Lujan faces Johnson, who takes independents by eight points. “Jeff Bingaman is a near lock for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Gary Johnson could be competitive in an open seat situation but whether some of his unorthodox views would allow him to get the Republican nomination is a different question.” PPP surveyed 545 New Mexico voters from February 4th to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] New Mexico Survey Results Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were of Gary Johnson? Democrat Jeff Bingaman and Republican Gary Johnson, who would you vote for? Favorable........................................................ 44% Jeff Bingaman................................................. 51% Unfavorable .................................................... 32% Gary Johnson ................................................. 40% Not sure .......................................................... 24% Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff Undecided....................................................... 9% Bingaman’s job performance? Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were 56% Democrat Jeff Bingaman and Republican Approve .......................................................... Steve Pearce, who would you vote for? Disapprove...................................................... 27% Jeff Bingaman................................................. 57% Not sure .......................................................... 17% Steve Pearce .................................................. 34% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Martin Heinrich? Undecided....................................................... 9% 39% Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Favorable........................................................ Democrat Jeff Bingaman and Republican Unfavorable .................................................... 34% Heather Wilson, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 28% Jeff Bingaman................................................. 56% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Heather Wilson ............................................... 37% of Ben Ray Lujan? Undecided....................................................... 7% 36% Favorable........................................................ Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Unfavorable .................................................... 34% Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Gary Johnson, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 30% 43% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Martin Heinrich................................................ of Steve Pearce? Gary Johnson ................................................. 44% Favorable........................................................ 35% Undecided....................................................... 14% Unfavorable .................................................... 44% Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were 21% Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Not sure .......................................................... Steve Pearce, who would you vote for? Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Heather Wilson? Martin Heinrich................................................ 53% 38% Favorable........................................................ 39% Steve Pearce .................................................. 10% Unfavorable .................................................... 45% Undecided....................................................... Not sure .......................................................... 16% February 4-6, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 545 New Mexico voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican moderate, or conservative? Heather Wilson, who would you vote for? Liberal............................................................. 23% Martin Heinrich................................................ 50% Moderate......................................................... 46% Heather Wilson ............................................... 39% Conservative................................................... 32% Undecided....................................................... 11% Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were 54% Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Gary Woman ........................................................... Johnson, who would you vote for? Man................................................................. 46% Ben Ray Lujan ................................................ 40% Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent Gary Johnson ................................................. 45% or identify with another party, press 3. 15% Undecided....................................................... Democrat ........................................................ 55% Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were 29% Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Republican...................................................... Steve Pearce, who would you vote for? Independent/Other.......................................... 16% Ben Ray Lujan ................................................ 49% Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If other, press 3. Steve Pearce .................................................. 37% Hispanic.......................................................... 39% Undecided....................................................... 14% 53% Q15 If the candidates for US Senate next year were White .............................................................. Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Other............................................................... 8% Heather Wilson, who would you vote for? Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to Ben Ray Lujan ................................................ 48% 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. Heather Wilson ............................................... 40% 18 to 29........................................................... 12% Undecided....................................................... 12% 24% Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008? 30 to 45........................................................... 46 to 65........................................................... 44% John McCain................................................... 39% Older than 65 .................................................. 20% Barack Obama................................................ 55% Someone Else/Don't Remember..................... 6% February 4-6, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 545 New Mexico voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected]
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