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FOREIGN HOLDINGS of US DEBT: IS OUR ECONOMY VULNERABLE?’’ I Want to Thank the Members of the Committee for Inviting Me to Testify

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FOREIGN HOLDINGS of US DEBT: IS OUR ECONOMY VULNERABLE?’’ I Want to Thank the Members of the Committee for Inviting Me to Testify FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF U.S. DEBT: IS OUR ECONOMY VULNERABLE? HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON THE BUDGET HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION HEARING HELD IN WASHINGTON, DC, JUNE 26, 2007 Serial No. 110–13 Printed for the use of the Committee on the Budget ( Available on the Internet: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/house/budget/index.html U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 38–251 PDF WASHINGTON : 2008 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate 0ct 09 2002 17:16 Jan 08, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 J:\DOCS\HEARINGS\110TH\110-13\38251.TXT HBUD1 PsN: DICK COMMITTEE ON THE BUDGET JOHN M. SPRATT, JR., South Carolina, Chairman ROSA L. DELAURO, Connecticut, PAUL RYAN, Wisconsin, CHET EDWARDS, Texas Ranking Minority Member JIM COOPER, Tennessee J. GRESHAM BARRETT, South Carolina THOMAS H. ALLEN, Maine JO BONNER, Alabama ALLYSON Y. SCHWARTZ, Pennsylvania SCOTT GARRETT, New Jersey MARCY KAPTUR, Ohio MARIO DIAZ–BALART, Florida XAVIER BECERRA, California JEB HENSARLING, Texas LLOYD DOGGETT, Texas DANIEL E. LUNGREN, California EARL BLUMENAUER, Oregon MICHAEL K. SIMPSON, Idaho MARION BERRY, Arkansas PATRICK T. MCHENRY, North Carolina ALLEN BOYD, Florida CONNIE MACK, Florida JAMES P. MCGOVERN, Massachusetts K. MICHAEL CONAWAY, Texas BETTY SUTTON, Ohio JOHN CAMPBELL, California ROBERT E. ANDREWS, New Jersey PATRICK J. TIBERI, Ohio ROBERT C. ‘‘BOBBY’’ SCOTT, Virginia JON C. PORTER, Nevada BOB ETHERIDGE, North Carolina RODNEY ALEXANDER, Louisiana DARLENE HOOLEY, Oregon ADRIAN SMITH, Nebraska BRIAN BAIRD, Washington [Vacancy] DENNIS MOORE, Kansas TIMOTHY H. BISHOP, New York GWEN MOORE, Wisconsin PROFESSIONAL STAFF THOMAS S. KAHN, Staff Director and Chief Counsel JAMES T. BATES, Minority Chief of Staff (II) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 17:16 Jan 08, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 J:\DOCS\HEARINGS\110TH\110-13\38251.TXT HBUD1 PsN: DICK C O N T E N T S Page Hearing held in Washington, DC, June 26, 2007 ................................................. 1 Statement of: Hon. John M. Spratt, Jr., Chairman, House Committee on the Budget ..... 1 Hon. Paul Ryan, ranking minority member, House Committee on the Budget ............................................................................................................ 2 Peter R. Orszag, Director, Congressional Budget Office (CBO) ................... 5 Prepared statement of ............................................................................... 7 Robert D. Hormats, vice chairman, Goldman Sachs (International) ........... 43 Prepared statement of ............................................................................... 45 Mickey D. Levy, chief economist, Bank of America ....................................... 49 Prepared statement of ............................................................................... 52 Kenneth Rogoff, Thomas D. Cabot professor of public policy and professor of economics, Harvard University, and visiting fellow, Brookings Insti- tution .............................................................................................................. 57 Prepared statement of ............................................................................... 60 Brad Setser, senior economist, Roubini Global Economics and research associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford ............................................................................................................ 62 Prepared statement of ............................................................................... 65 (III) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 17:16 Jan 08, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 J:\DOCS\HEARINGS\110TH\110-13\38251.TXT HBUD1 PsN: DICK VerDate 0ct 09 2002 17:16 Jan 08, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 J:\DOCS\HEARINGS\110TH\110-13\38251.TXT HBUD1 PsN: DICK FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF U.S. DEBT: IS OUR ECONOMY VULNERABLE? TUESDAY, JUNE 26, 2007 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, COMMITTEE ON THE BUDGET, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to call, at 2:04 p.m., in room 210, Cannon House Office Building, Hon. John M. Spratt, Jr. [Chairman of the committee] presiding. Present: Representatives Spratt, Edwards, Cooper, Kaptur, Becerra, Doggett, Blumenauer, Berry, Sutton, Scott, Etheridge, Hooley, Ryan, Lungren, Simpson, Tiberi, Porter, Alexander, and Smith. Chairman SPRATT. I would like to open the hearing and thank everyone for their coming and attendance. And I have a brief open- ing statement. Then we will turn to Mr. Ryan and then to Mr. Orszag to begin our hearing today. We are here to talk for a change about the elephant in the room. Our subject is foreign holdings of U.S. debt and the question is our economy vulnerable? We touched on this issue last January when we held a hearing on why deficits matter. Today we explore the subject further. At our January hearing, we heard from Ed Gramlick and Ted Truman that budget deficits are part of a broader problem, low na- tional savings, which diminishes the prospect of long-term growth and, in particular, the well-being of our children and grand- children. We heard that our entire economy, both public and private sec- tors, are relying to an unprecedented extent on foreign debt, for- eign capital to fund current investment and consumption because other countries are much more diligent than we are at saving. We were reminded that national saving is the sum of public and private saving and that recent budget deficits are negative public saving and are driving down overall national savings which is al- ready woefully inadequate. Our reliance on foreign capital to fund our budget deficits has grown tremendously since 2001. Foreign holdings of Treasury secu- rities have more than doubled to a level of $2.2 trillion, accounting for nearly half of marketable Treasury debt. For every dollar of additional funds the federal government has borrowed since 2001, an estimated 80 cents is owed to foreign in- vestors. Most economists now believe that perennially growing deficits are unsustainable, certainly that endless growing foreign debt is (1) VerDate 0ct 09 2002 17:16 Jan 08, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 J:\DOCS\HEARINGS\110TH\110-13\38251.TXT HBUD1 PsN: DICK 2 unsustainable, and that our worsening and deepening current ac- count deficit is unsustainable. No one can predict exactly when our economy hits the wall or whether there will be a soft landing or a hard landing. We have asked today’s witnesses to testify on this topic so that we can bet- ter understand the gravity of this problem, what the federal debt and deficit spending have to do with it, and what deficits policy role should be to mitigate the adverse economic effects. We are fortunate to have an impressive panel of witnesses today. First we will hear from Dr. Peter Orszag, the Director of the CBO. And then we will hear from a panel of very distinguished econo- mists and foreign policy experts, Dr. Robert Hormats, Dr. Mickey Levy, Dr. Kenneth Rogoff, and Dr. Brad Setser. We thank each one of you for coming, for agreeing to testify, and for the time you are taking. We look forward to your testimony and the answers to our questions that follow. Before turning to Dr. Orszag, however, let me turn to Mr. Ryan for any opening statement he would like to make. Mr. Ryan. Mr. RYAN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And first of all, I want to thank you for getting the hearings up and running here. I think we have a number of interesting hearings and I am looking for- ward to participating in those. Clearly members on both sides of the aisle share a concern about the effects of chronic deficit spending and the resulting accumula- tion of debt that we are discussing here today. So it is fitting we have this hearing. It is not simply enough to rail against deficits, to rail against debt, and then rail against the fact that foreigners are buying it up. Yes, we have a debt and, yes, we have chronic deficits and a considerable share of that debt is held by foreign investors. These are the facts that are before us today. The question is, and I imagine the purpose of this hearing is, what are we going to do about it? First, we have got to understand why we have the deficits and why we have the debt today. Clearly there are some political points that are going to be had by some who want to play the blame game, claiming the U.S. gov- ernment would be rolling in money had, say, Republicans not squandered through our reckless tax cuts and spending the often quoted 2001 projected $5.6 trillion surplus. But, once again, if you go back and look at the facts, we never actually had that money. It was a projection of what our number crunchers thought we have if everything went according to their assumptions. Clearly it did not. Their assumptions did not foresee the bursting of the dot com bubble, the eruption of corporate scandals, or the economic slow- down and the recession that had already begun, and, of course, the forecasters did not foresee the attacks of 9/11 and ensuing War on Terror. Tax relief was not the problem. Well-timed tax relief not only helped buoy the economy out of recession, it also fostered invest- ment leading the way to significant job creation and sustained eco- nomic growth that we continue to enjoy today. VerDate 0ct 09 2002 17:16 Jan 08, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 J:\DOCS\HEARINGS\110TH\110-13\38251.TXT HBUD1 PsN: DICK 3 That growth has fueled double digit revenue growth and has been the key factor in not only dramatically driving down the def- icit but also to getting within striking distance of balancing the budget. The cause of the deficit and debt is that Congress has and con- tinues to spend too much money. I will be the first one here today to acknowledge that Republicans spent too much money when we were in the majority. After 9/11, we said largely in a bipartisan way whatever it takes and we deliberately spent enormous amounts and took on debt.
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