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Terrorism in North Africa: Examination of the Threat

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Terrorism in North Africa: Examination of the Threat Congressional hairman King, Ranking Member Rice, and distinguished Members of the Testimony C subcommittee, thank you for the opportunity to testify before you today. My name is Geoff Porter. I am the president of North TERRORISM IN Africa Risk Consulting, the political and security risk analysis firm specializing exclusively in North NORTH AFRICA: Africa. North Africa Risk Consulting provides analysis of evolving political and security AN contexts in Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia to private sector corporations and EXAMINATION different US government agencies and departments. In addition, from 2013-2016, I was OF THE THREAT an assistant professor at the United States Military Academy at West Point in the Testimony before the Department of Social Sciences and an instructor with the Combating Terrorism Center. In my House Committee on capacity as president of North Africa Risk Homeland Security, Consulting and previously as a faculty member at Subcommittee on West Point, I made more than three dozen trips to Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, as well as Counterterrorism & multiple trips to Libya before and after the 2011 Intelligence revolution that resulted in the overthrow of Col. Muammar Qadhafi’s regime. I have had the good 29 March 2017 fortune of having briefed U.S. ambassadors to Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya regarding political and security developments in those countries prior Geoff D. Porter to their assuming their posts. It is a privilege and an honor to share my analysis of the threat President posed by terrorism in North Africa with you. North Africa Risk Consulting, Inc. North Africa Risk Consulting, Inc. [email protected] www.northafricarisk.com Terrorism in North Africa Defining North Africa Terrorism in North Africa in recent years is The definition of North Africa can vary from one entirely jihadi salafi in nature. Although there institution to another. For some U.S. agencies, are differences among jihadi salafi terrorist North Africa includes not only the conventional organizations, they all stem from an Maghreb countries (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, interpretation of Islam that argues that there is Morocco, Tunisia), but also Saharan and a very narrow canon from which Islamic tenets Sahelian countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and duties should be derived and that among Niger, Nigeria, Senegal). For the purposes of those tenets and obligations is the duty to this examination of the threat posed by confront by any means necessary non-Muslims terrorism in North Africa, the definition of or Muslims that these organizations deem to be North Africa will be a hybrid of regional insufficiently religious. The goal of these jihadi stakeholders’ own definition of North Africa as salafi organizations is inherently political. They “the Maghreb” and North African terrorist want to oust the political leadership in the organizations’ definition of their area of nation states in which they operate because operations, which includes Burkina Faso, Chad, 2 that leadership does not share their same Mali, and Niger. This definition accommodates interpretation of how political systems should the cross-border, transnational nature of operate. In addition, they want to erode the terrorist organizations and of the diplomatic influence of the United States and its European and military approaches adopted to combat it allies in areas in which they operate. by the U.S., France, and regional governments. The persistence of jihadi salafi terrorist Al-Qaeda and Affiliated Groups organizations in North Africa poses a direct In January 2017, al-Qaeda’s regional affiliation, threat to U.S. national interests overseas and an al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM (Ar. th marked its 10 ,(القاعدة في بﻻد المغرب اﻹسﻻمي indirect and longer-term threat to the homeland. For al-Qaeda affiliated groups and anniversary. AQIM emerged in moment of Islamic State allies alike, the U.S. remains the desperation out of a pre-existing salafi enemy. nationalist terrorist organization (the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, or GSPC) that Jihadi salafi terrorist groups in North Africa can was increasingly without a viable mission.3 The be divided into two large rubrics. There are GSPC was dedicated to fighting the Algerian those allied with al-Qaeda, which continues to government allegedly in order to restore the be led by Ayman al-Zawahiri. And there are aborted 1991 legislative elections. By 2004, the those who have pledged allegiance to the government and the Algerian population had Islamic State under the leadership of Abu Bakr moved on and were focused on restoring peace al-Baghdadi. Tactical disagreements and and stability. The GSPC’s leader in 2005, different loyalties keep these two groups apart, Abdelmalek Droukdel, initiated the process but there is slippage between them and whereby the GSPC first became formally 1 individuals and affiliates move back and forth. affiliated with al-Qaeda, and then in 2007 1 Thomas, Dominique, “État islamique vs. Al-Qaïda : autopsie d’une lutte fratricide,” Politique étrangère, N. 1, printemps 2016 2 http://www.maghrebarabe.org/ar/ 3 Porter, Geoff D., “AQIM Ten Years On,” The Cipher Brief, 12 January 2017 North Africa Risk Consulting, Inc. 2 [email protected] www.northafricarisk.com announced that it had become AQIM.4 Over the platoon of al-Mourabitoun fighters attacked the course of the last ten years, AQIM’s strategy, Tigantourine Gas Plant at In Amenas in Algeria. tactics, and area of operations have evolved, The attackers originated in northern Mali, responding to changes in the broader jihadi transited eastward across the country, passed movement and to political and security through northeastern Niger, and entered developments in the region. southwestern Libya where they staged their operation. The attackers subsequently crossed Droukdel remains the organization’s leader, but Algeria’s border and attacked the gas facility. it has expanded its operations beyond just More than three dozen expatriates were killed Algeria to include a broad swath of North Africa. at the site, including three U.S. citizens.7 In fact, its operations in Algeria itself are curtailed and the group has struggled recently Following the In Amenas attack, al-Mourabitoun to remain relevant in the Algerian context. That went to ground, possibly as a result of having being said, as evinced by the 18 March 2016 lost so many men in the attack, but also attack against the In Salah Gas asset at Krechba, because it was being doggedly hunted. From AQIM retains some domestic support in Algeria January 2013 to July 2014, France had deployed and still has the capacity to carry out episodic roughly 4,000 troops as part of Opération Serval strikes against high-value targets, especially far whose objective was to stabilize northern Mali from urban centers where security measures in the wake of a jihadi salafi offensive. The are less rigorous.5 French presence on the ground and its assets in the air hindered Belmokhtar and al- AQIM’s evolution has not been seamless and Mourabitoun’s movements. the organization has experienced schisms and leadership fracture. In particular, in 2012 In the aftermath of the 2011 Libyan revolution, Droukdel quarreled with one of his AQIM also tried to make inroads among jihadi commanders in northern Mali, and that salafi groups in Libya, including with Ansar al- the jihadi salafi group ,(أنصار الشريعة .commander, Mokhtar Belmokhtar, quit AQIM Sharia (Ar to form his own organization, al-Mourabitoun involved in the attack against the US compound made up of AQIM fighters as well in Benghazi.8 Belmokhtar was allegedly charged ,(المرابطون .Ar) as fighters from the Movement for Unity in with initiating relations between AQIM and Jihad in West Africa or MUJAO (Fr. Mouvement Ansar al-Sharia.9 While Belmokhtar’s overtures pour l'unicité et le jihad en Afrique de l'Ouest; were likely well-received, they did not result in Four any operational coordination between AQIM 6.(حركة التوحيد والجهاد في غرب أفريقيا .Ar months after its formation, a heavily armed and Ansar al-Sharia. Ansar al-Sharia itself has 4 Tawil, Camille, Brothers in Arms: The Story of al-Qa`ida and the Arab Jihadists (London : Saqi, 2011), trans. Robin Bray 5 Hadjer Guenanfa, “Attaque contre le site gazier de Krechba : la piste d’un terroriste de la region,” Tout sur l’Algérie, 22 March 2016 6 Ould Salem, Lamine, Ben Laden du Sahara. Sur les traces du jihadiste Mokhtar Belmokhtar (éd. de La Martinière, 2014) 7 Statoil, In Amenas Investigation Report (2013) 8 Rogers, Mike, and Ruppersberger, Dutch, Investigative Report on the Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Facilities in Benghazi, Libya, September 11-12, 2012, U.S. House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, 21 November 2014 9 Rémi Carayol, “Mokhtar Belmokhtar, le parrain du Sahelistan,” Jeune Afrique, 4 February 2015 North Africa Risk Consulting, Inc. 3 [email protected] www.northafricarisk.com since been absorbed into other jihadi salafi leading jihadi salafi organization in North Africa, organizations in Libya, including the Mujahids’ the Sahara, and the Sahel. (مجلس شورى مجاهدي درنة .Shura Council Darna (Ar Droukdel has recently further consolidated and the Mujahids’ Shura Council Benghazi (Ar. AQIM’s position in Saharan and Sahelian Libya’s descent into 10.(مجلس شورى مجاهدي بنغازي countries. A communique on 2 March 2017 civil war by late 2014 and the emergence of the announced the regrouping of disparate but Islamic State in Sirte in 2015 both undermined related jihadi salafi groups in North Africa. The Ansar al-Sharia’s ongoing viability. As a result, announcement was made by Iyad Ag Ghali, the AQIM does not have a sustained presence in leader of Ansar Dine, a local front for AQIM in northern Libya. It is likely, though, that al- Mali. Ag Ghali was accompanied by AQIM Mourabitoun continue to have a limited commander Yahya Abu Hammam, al- presence in southwestern Libya.11 Mourabitoun second-in-command Hassan al- While AQIM failed to maintain a presence in Ansari, Amadou Koufa, the leader of the Macina Libya, it has had greater success with its Brigade (Ansar Dine’s Peul battalion), and Tunisian affiliate, the Uqba Ibn Nafi Brigade (Ar.
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