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Why the Broncos cannot afford Flacco to be an average Joe at By Mark Kiszla Denver Post March 10, 2019

Please allow me to be the first to warmly welcome quarterback Joe Flacco to Denver, backed with this friendly piece of advice.

Walk into the Broncos locker room like you own the joint, Joe. Or be prepared to get run out of town quicker than we can say: Don’t let the screen door hit ya, Mr. Keenum.

An NFL team that loses 21 games in two seasons has too many problems to count. But know the biggest issue around here?

The Broncos are a team without a voice … or an identity.

The No-Fly Zone is dead. The most dangerous playmaker on offense is recovering from an Achilles injury. For three years, the position of quarterback has been a stink show, as disposable as a diaper. By his own admission, linebacker is all-league at telling jokes and sacking the quarterback. But as a leader, Miller would rather get along than kick butt.

I recently asked Vic Fangio how a team with a first-time head coach, new coordinators and a quarterback who hasn’t played a down for the Broncos could reasonably expect to operate at full efficiency from the first snap of the regular season.

Without hesitation, Fangio responded: “We’re at full speed from Day 1.”

I hope that proves to be true. But it would be foolhardy to bet on it.

The Denver roster that won 50 was so deep in big personalities and big talent, from to to Wade Phillips, that keeping it all in check was one of former coach ’s primary duties.

While Fangio already seems more comfortable in the job, with a clearer vision of how to run a winning program than Vance Joseph ever had, which veterans can the new coach count on to spread his gospel in the locker room?

I don’t pretend to be an expert in X’s and O’s, but I have observed team dynamics long enough to understand this could be a significant challenge for Fangio in establishing how he wants the Broncos to conduct their football business. Receiver , defensive lineman Derek Wolfe and Chris Harris all have both the alpha dog mentality and the proven athletic chops to not only speak up but grab the ears of Denver teammates.

The rub? Sanders, Wolfe and Harris are all entering the final season of a contract with the Broncos in a sport where there are precious little guarantees for tomorrow.

These are competitive men who love to win. But as it stands right now, the No. 1 business responsibility for Harris, Wolfe and Sanders must be to look out for No. 1. It would be naïve to expect any of them to buy in on Fangio’s long-term plan without a accompanying long-term commitment from the team to three veterans who have served the Broncos well.

That alone should compel general manager to give a new deal to Harris, who is the conscience of the team in a way that doesn’t come naturally to Miller.

But who will be the face of Denver’s offense? This team desperately needs Flacco to take control of the locker room, the huddle and the red zone in a way never did.

After Denver boldly rewarded his one productive season in Minnesota with $25 million guaranteed, Keenum did not grow in the job as Denver’s starting quarterback. He instead shrank from the responsibility.

Keenum tried so hard to color inside the lines he tripped over his own painful self-restraint. Rather than looking to make big plays as the season began slipping away for the Broncos, Keenum seemed bent on avoiding mistakes. He never looked comfortable under the bright lights of the big city that Elway built.

Broncos Country is tough on . We expect legendary performance worthy of the Hall of Fame, and refuse to accept weak imitations.

If Flacco is just another average Joe, he will only be in Denver long enough for us to take his name in vain.

Kickin’ it with Kiz: Is it fantasy football for Broncos to believe Joe Flacco is better than Case Keenum? By Mark Kiszla Denver Post March 10, 2019

I’m not glad to see Case Keenum go and have no negative feelings toward him. But he was set up for failure, was never the answer, and I don’t know why the Broncos pretended he was.

Jacob, perplexed

Kiz: Keenum was a career backup quarterback until one magical year in Minnesota. What he did in Denver was regress to the mean. And I fear the Broncos’ belief that new quarterback Joe Flacco can recapture the magic of a Super Bowl played six years ago is nothing more than a football fantasy.

I think Keenum got a raw deal for sure. Offensive coordinator ’s system didn’t fit him at all. Keenum is a much better player at this point than Flacco.

Ryan, making a case for Keenum

Kiz: If Keenum wins more games as the starting quarterback in Washington than Flacco does for the Broncos, John Elway might not be around for the end of his contract as director of football operations. And nobody wants that.

Raw deal? Keenum fleeced the Broncos! He was overpaid, didn’t produce, took the money and then got paid to leave.

M.L.M., doin’ the math

Kiz: Since joining the NFL in 2012, Keenum has won 26 games as a starting quarterback and been paid more than $25 million in career earnings. I’m no good at math, but any way you figure it, that’s nearly a million bucks for every victory. Beats working, don’t you think?

Sportswriter Dan Jenkins passed away. In my bookcase are 13, at least, of his books. I have so many of his quotes in my mind, from the time I was so lost in “Semi-Tough” that my wife’s purse got left behind at a rest to stop, with Shake Tiller telling Billy Clyde Puckett: “Don’t save me any meatloaf.” I say this with much respect and affection: Jenkins was politically incorrect before politically correct was forced on the world.

R.J., playing hurt

Kiz: As a writer, Jenkins was so far out of my league I couldn’t learn much from him no matter how much I laughed while reading his novels. But I am eternally grateful to Jim Tom Pinch, his alter ego in “You Gotta Play Hurt,” for teaching me an expense report might be the most important work any sportswriter ever does.

I survived a massive stroke last year at age 57, so your column on CU basketball player Evan Battey was inspiring. I’m very impressed and happy for Battey, as I know how difficult it is to come back from a stroke.

David, one tough cookie

Kiz: Dunking a basketball is cool. But there are far more difficult feats. You and Battey are living proof.

And today’s parting shot offers this advice to Nuggets point guard Isaiah Thomas: Take a seat.

I was all for giving him a shot with the Nuggets, but we are in the stretch run now, going for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. At this point, the best players should play, and I.T. is a liability on defense. Add his turnovers to jacking up horrible-percentage shots, and the negatives outweigh the positives.

K.D., Los Angeles

Woody Paige: must march in when NFL year starts Wednesday By Woody Paige Colorado Springs Gazette March 10, 2019

Don’t beware the Ides of March.

Be aware, instead, of March 13, 2019 — New Year’s Day on the calendar.

Wednesday is when the Broncos endeavor to become relevant in the room again.

Feb. 7, 2016 seems so distant ago. Set your clocks ahead.

Since Peyton Manning retired three years ago in March, the Broncos have won only 20 of 48 games and wasted with — preposterously! — 10 quarterbacks. Count ‘em: , , , , Kyle Sloter, Case Keenum, Kevin Hogan, Garrett Grayson and, lest we forget, Chad Kelly and Nick Stevens. Only Hogan and Grayson, who’ve never played a game for the Broncos and likely never will, remain.

Broncos antihero Joe Flacco officially will become the 11th quarterback of the P.M. (Post-Manning) Era Wednesday.

That’s also the day the Broncos can sign unrestricted free agents, make offers to restricted free agents and make trades.

Big Day.

The Broncos should strive to lure four -caliber players to Denver in the semblance of 2014 when Aqib Talib, Emmanuel Sanders, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware agreed to contracts.

From 2016-2018, the Broncos managed to get only two worthwhile free agents — Ron Leary and Domata Peko. Last year they signed Keenum and Clinton McDonald. One didn’t play a down, and the other has played his last down here. It’s been a way-down forgettable period.

After the free agency frenzy, next is the draft April 25-27. The Broncos can’t miss.

They have only two players — Von Miller and Derek Wolfe — left from John Elway’s first five drafts (2011- 2015), and 18 from the past three.

Coach Vic Fangio told The Gazette in an extensive exclusive interview he’s willing to be patient, but the word “rebuild’’ is not in Elway’s vocabulary. After three seasons of decrepitude, the Duke of Denver is anxious and agitated over the Broncos’ fall from grace.

So, he acquired Flacco, hoping to replicate the Momentous Manning Move. If his name were John Smith or Fred Elway, the Broncos’ president of football operations would be in deep trouble if the Broncos are shunned from the postseason for a fourth season. But Elway is polytetrafluoroethylene.

Although the league’s salary cap will increase significantly from $177 million to $188.2 million, and the Broncos have rolled over $8.3 million from last season, the franchise, I project, won’t have a ton of cap money — perhaps $30 million-$40 million max. They will add Flacco’s $18.5M salary. They can subtract $3 million after dumping Keenum, but still retain $7 mil of dead money on him and be stuck with a total of $14 mil in zombie hits.

The Broncos will pick up $4.8 million on the release of Brandon Marshall, could dismiss Ron Leary for another $7.5 million gain and might try to convert a percentage of contracts for Miller, Sanders and Wolfe to bonuses for more cap relief.

As usual, a horde of free agents, including 18 from the Broncos, are available. The Broncos should emphasize a quartet that includes a cornerback and a safety, and two offensive linemen or one and an inside linebacker.

The recruitment should start with a pair of Fangio prodigies — safety and slot corner , late of the Bears.

They could be Vic’s Salve in the Broncos’ secondary and certainly would want to play for him.

The 25-year-old Amos is an archetype strong safety in the Fangio- coverage scheme, and Callahan, 27, was exceptional last season until breaking his foot in the 13th game. Both made $1.9 million in ’18.

C.J. Mosley is the popular candidate at inside linebacker, but the Eagles’ , who is a superior cover linebacker, would be more affordable. He also had a $1.9 million deal last season.

Right tackle Daryl Williams would be the big-ticket item, but the correct choice for Mike Munchak’s offensive line. He tore his ACL in the Panthers’ opening game last season, but the ex-Pro Bowler is recovering and will command about $8 million a year.

To fill out the line and replace Matt Paradis, who will receive a massive payday ($11 mil per), the Broncos ought to pilfer free agent Mitch Morse, the Chiefs’ starter at center for four years. Morse, 26, hasn’t allowed a sack since he was a rookie.

Four of those five would be a coups de grass.

The Broncos must march in in March.

Fifteen to know for free agency: Defense By Andrew Mason DenverBroncos.com March 10, 2019

1. S , NEW YORK GIANTS

How often does a player who is arguably the best at his position hit the market -- and do so as he enters what should be his prime years?

In the 2016 season, buzz circled around Collins as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate as the Giants rolled to their only double-digit-win regular season since 2008. The chatter wasn't idle; it was backed up by five , 13 passes defensed, four sacks and 125 total tackles. He is the only defensive back in the last 12 years to intercept at least five passes and notch at least four sacks in a single season.

A shoulder injury cost Collins four games late last year, but he's not injury-prone; he played in all but five games during his four seasons with the Giants.

2. LB KWON ALEXANDER, TAMPA BAY

Alexander looked to be headed toward a big payday from the Bucs before he tore an anterior cruciate ligament last October. The injury is the biggest concern about him; his play is not, although he did better in pass coverage in 2017 than he did prior to his injury last fall.

Alexander's value is enhanced by his leadership. He was a Bucs team captain, and could be in the same role with a new team if he departs.

3. S EARL THOMAS, SEATTLE

Lost in the 2018 hubbub of his preseason holdout, his rapid return to the starting lineup for a Week 1 game at Denver and a fractured leg that ended his season after just four games was the fact that he was the NFL's leader in interceptions to that point. He picked off three passes in the first four weeks of the season, including one against the Broncos.

Yes, the team that signs Thomas must accept that he turns 30 in May and has missed 19 games in the last three years. But he remains a potential Hall of Fame safety who appears capable of at least three more outstanding seasons.

4. S ADRIAN AMOS, CHICAGO

Amos could provide similar play to Collins, but for a fraction of the price. He is not to be overlooked, and just like T.J. Ward in 2014, could be the best buy at his position, even with other names attracting more attention in what could be a flooded safety market.

His instincts and study habits allow him to be one step ahead of the offense against the run and in coverage. Few safeties are better all-around than the five-year veteran, whose best days should still be ahead.

5. LB C.J. MOSLEY, BALTIMORE

Mosley should end up being the highest-paid 3-4 inside linebacker on the market because of his good health and aggression against the run. In coverage, he's excellent at limiting the damage, as evidenced by the fact that he ranked third among 50 linebackers with at least 300 coverage snaps in yardage after the catch allowed on a per-reception basis, according to Pro Football Focus.

6. EDGE RUSHER EZEKIEL ANSAH, DETROIT

Ansah hits the market after an injury-shortened season in which he posted four sacks in seven games. His career pattern tends to be one year on, one year off, as his three highest sack totals came in 2013 (8), 2015 (14.5) and 2017 (12), so the team that signs him will count on that trend continuing.

Last year, Eric Ebron left the Lions for the Colts in free agency and immediately played better. It's possible that Ansah could make the same leap; the Colts are flush with cap room and possess a need on the edge. One factor to consider is Ansah's age; he turns 30 in May. He also hasn't played a full 16- game schedule since 2015.

7. CB RONALD DARBY, PHILADELPHIA

A torn anterior cruciate ligament ended his 2018 season in November, but until that moment it was another outstanding campaign for the young cornerback. According to the numbers compiled by Pro Football Focus, Darby allowed just 5.89 yards per attempt on plays targeted toward him, placing him ninth among 84 with at least 350 coverage snaps.

Injury history is the concern with Darby, as he has missed 17 of a possible 37 games (including postseason) the past two seasons.

8. EDGE RUSHER TREY FLOWERS, NEW ENGLAND

Only 12 players have forced more in the last two seasons than Flowers, who has five. He's consistent at generating pressure, as Pro Football Focus credited him with at least four pressures in 23 of 35 games (including postseason) in which he played during the last two seasons,

9. LB JORDAN HICKS, PHILADELPHIA

Among 53 linebackers credited by Pro Football Focus with at least 50 tackles last season, Hicks' percentage of missed tackles was fourth-best, with just four in 66 opportunities. Hicks was crucial in the Eagles' efforts against the run.

10. LB ANTHONY BARR, MINNESOTA

In 2015, when the Broncos played the Vikings in Week 4, I couldn't have imagined a scenario in which the Vikings let Barr eventually test the market. Then a second-year player, Barr dominated, capping his day with an of Peyton Manning, leading to a 32-yard return that set up a Vikings two plays later.

But despite four consecutive Pro Bowls, Barr's form has yet to return to that 2015 apex. In particular, his work in coverage has struggled; according to Pro Football Focus, he has allowed eight touchdown passes and a 115.3 rating when targeted. The team that signs him must find a way to allow him to recapture his 2014-15 form.

11. DL , MINNESOTA

Richardson recaptured his Jets form after joining the Vikings, posting his highest sack total (4.5) since the 2015 season. His ability to disrupt opposing ground games and provide an interior pass rush should ensure that his next contract is longer than the one-year deal he got from Minnesota in 2018.

12. CB BRYCE CALLAHAN, CHICAGO

Darby was ninth in yardage per attempt last year. Callahan was 11th, giving up 6.13 yards per pass thrown at him, according to Pro Football Focus. He missed the final three games of the 2018 regular season with a broken foot, but he should be at full speed for 2019 and remains an ideal slot cornerback.

13. DL JOHNATHAN HANKINS, OAKLAND

The past two seasons with the Raiders and Colts have not seen Hankins recapture his dominant form with the Giants, particularly in the 2014 season, when he exploded for career highs in sacks (7) and total tackles (51). He's known more as a run defender, but if he's in an environment rich in pass rushers, he can capitalize off one-on-ones against center and provide a punch of pass rushing to go along with his stout work against the run.

14. CB PIERRE DESIR, INDIANAPOLIS

A reliable tackler in the open field, Desir's missed-tackle percentage of 3.2 percent is the lowest for any of the 59 cornerbacks who played at least 700 snaps last year, according to the numbers compiled by Pro Football Focus.

Yet it is interesting that the Colts do not already have Desir re-signed by now. According to overthecap.com, Indianapolis is projected to have over $102 million in salary-cap space, the most of any team in the NFL. With that much room, the Colts can be active, but retaining Desir would seem to be a good place to start.

15. EDGE RUSHER , BALTIMORE

The team that signs Suggs won't add him for what he was. What he is, even as he prepares for his 17th NFL season, is an efficient and effective pass rusher who has missed just one game in the last three years. In the last eight seasons when he's managed to play at least 15 games, he has never failed to post at least seven sacks, the total he hit in 2018. Along with Flowers and several others, Suggs has five forced fumbles the last two years, more than all but a dozen NFL defenders. Teams will probably regard the 36-year-old Suggs as situational rusher, but he can be effective, especially for a team that already possesses at least one edge rusher capable of double-digit sacks.

Sacco Sez: How the Broncos' first free-agent signing led to a monumental trade By Jim Saccomano DenverBroncos.com March 10, 2019

With the start of the new NFL calendar year coming up on March 13, that means free agency starts anew, and every team is working on a list of players it may sign.

The NFL had "Plan B" free agency — which allowed teams to retain the rights to 37 players each year — from 1989 through 1992, but full-fledged free agency that allowed players to hit the open market without restriction began in 1993.

Free agency can be a huge boon to the hopes of a team, but sometimes not in the exact ways one imagined.

The Broncos' free-agent signees in that first year were running backs Rod Bernstine and Robert Delpino, guard Brian Habib, tackle Don Maggs and linebacker Dave Wyman.

But do you remember which of them was the first free agent signed by the Broncos — and how he indirectly helped us to our first world championship in Super Bowl XXXII?

The answer is Don Maggs, who had been an excellent left tackle protecting future Hall of Famer Warren Moon in the Houston Oilers' run-and-shoot offense.

Denver strongly felt it needed to get a first-class left tackle to protect our own future Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway, and Maggs was tabbed as the man.

The Broncos succeeded in signing Maggs, but it did not work out anywhere like we expected.

Almost immediately after he signed, Maggs suffered an offseason injury and started just two games in 1993. He would play just 16 games for Denver over the course of 1993 and 1994.

So by the start of the 1993 campaign, the team still had a huge hole at left tackle and our personnel people had significant concerns about how much the injuries would affect Maggs.

However, the had the best left tackle in football in future Hall of Famer , who was in the midst of a contract dispute with the team.

Zimmerman was not in camp with the Vikings, and the Broncos were looking for a solution at left tackle.

With the preseason schedule already underway, the Broncos traded for Zimmerman, giving the Vikings' their first- and sixth-round draft choices in 1994 and a second-round pick in 1995.

I vividly remember Zimmerman's arrival and approaching him to meet the Denver press.

The taciturn Zimmerman said, "Let's get this media stuff out of the way."

He was not the most vocal player on the team, but he was a genuinely great player and set an example for everyone.

When Head Coach Wade Phillips was asked if Zimmerman would play in that week's game, despite having had no practice time in training camp, Phillips remarked that not only would Zimmerman play, but he likely would be the second-best player on the field — second only to Elway.

After the game, Phillips was asked how Zimmerman played, and the coach said Zimmerman had indeed been the second-best player on the field.

In fact, Zimmerman is one of a select group of players to have been named to the NFL All-Decade team in two different decades. He was named as the starting left tackle on both the 1980s and 1990s All- Decade teams.

The Broncos had solved their left tackle situation for the next five years, but had it not been for the injury to Maggs, the team likely would never have pursued Zimmerman.

Those free agents signed by the Broncos during the 1993 offseason all contributed to varying degrees, but only Habib stayed with the team through 1997, helping anchor the offensive line that paved the way for to be Super Bowl MVP and Denver to beat the for that first world title.

None of us can predict who the Broncos will sign this coming week or in following in weeks — nor how they will all work out.

What we do know, however, is that sometimes the results show up in a way that no one expects.

Opinion: Latest NFL prospects know the dangers of concussions. But they dismiss them By Jarrett Bell USA Today March 10, 2019

Sure, football’s culture is changing when it comes to concussions.

It typically takes longer than it used to in getting cleared to return to play. The helmets are getting better. More rules are instituted for safety. Self-reporting of symptoms is seemingly on the rise.

Yet the more things change, the more they stay the same.

"It doesn’t impact me at all,” Notre Dame tight end Alize Mack declared during the NFL Scouting Combine last weekend in Indianapolis, asked if increasing awareness about long-term risks associated with head injuries affect his view of the football career he’s pursuing.

"I think I speak for everyone in this room when I say this is a game most of us have been playing since we were seven years old,” added Mack, who suffered two concussions in college. “So, at the end of the day, that’s not going to change how I attack a defense or choose to go after a player. This is football. It’s a physical game. That’s what you sign up for.”

Have no fear. Never mind that, with horror stories involving chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) found in deceased ex-players, institutional changes related to protocols and the billion-dollar settlement of a class-action lawsuit by former players that took effect in 2017 – after years of denial by the NFL that there was a link between football and long-term brain issues -- you might think there should be a warning label when signing up to play football.

Yet as we’ve come to the point where players in the latest crop of prospects for the NFL Draft have grown up in an age of enlightenment, playing under concussion protocols since they first took up the sport, it isn’t hard to find bravado from players dismissing serious concerns about long-term health.

Any extra precaution?

"No, not that all,” said receiver Miles Boykin, one of Mack’s college teammates. “This is the wrong game to play if you’re afraid.”

I’m not suggesting players shouldn’t pursue football as a dream career. While it’s tough to quantify, anecdotally there could be many who played the sport without any long-term issues from head trauma. And concussions occur in a lot of different sports and activities – not just football.

Still, as roughly 300 players assembled in Indianapolis for the annual event that evaluates and essentially processes a new crop for entry into the NFL, I was curious to seek a sense of how concussion awareness resonates with a new generation.

Like those from previous generations, the handful of players queried by USA TODAY during the combine – all of whom suffered concussions in college -- downplayed risks as an occupational hazard that comes with the potential for multi-million-dollar salaries.

“That’s the game,” Mack said. “A head injury can happen at any moment, not just (from) football. You know that’s a risk. An ankle injury, a head injury, all types of things are risks. But at the end of the day, this is football.”

Boykin, MVP of the Citrus Bowl, has a deeper perspective than most. His older brother, George, was forced to quit playing football after he suffered a brain contusion while playing the sport during his sophomore year in high school.

“That’s a real thing,” said Boykin. “He understood the risk he took when he was playing. It’s awful when it happens, but you understand.”

Boykin said his brother, 24, has thrived without football. George Boykin is a commercial pilot and currently pursuing a master’s degree. Rather than view his brother’s experience as a deterrent, Miles – who suffered one concussion playing football and another playing basketball – said it helped him gain a better appreciation that he is healthy enough to play.

“It’s tough,” he said. “We put ourselves in harm’s way. I understand that. We sign up to play this sport. But without this sport, I wouldn’t be standing in front of you. I wouldn’t have gone to Notre Dame without that sport. So, I’m extremely thankful for it.”

Allen Sills, the NFL’s chief medical officer, is encouraged that data tracing concussions is trending in a positive direction. The 214 concussions league-wide during in 2018 – including regular-season and preseason games, plus practices during the offseason, training camp and through the season – were the lowest since 2014.

While Sills acknowledges year-to-year data is more relevant as part of longer-term patterns, he believes the NFL’s proactive safety efforts, in conjunction with the NFL Players Association (NFLPA), are paying dividends. Last year, the league instituted a rule similar to ’s “targeting” measure that bans players from lowering their head in striking a blow. The NFL has also outlawed outdated helmets in recent years as technology has improved. Last offseason, the NFL had intervention sessions with seven teams – meeting with general managers, coaches and others – that included emphasis on practice patterns that may affect concussion rates. This follows the sea change that occurred after the last labor deal was struck in 2011 that significantly curbed contact in practices.

"This is a holistic league-wide effort,” Sills said during the combine. “Everybody is part of the solution with this issue.”

Sills touts the work of engineers who have driven data that reflects various patterns, and he is bullish on educational efforts, bolstered by the NFLPA, that have fueled a cultural shift that he maintains has resulted in more players self-reporting symptoms.

"Most of our players have grown up with the concussion protocol, like their entire football career, and in college they’ve been a part of a concussion protocol,” Sills said. “So, I think they understand why we do it and are very accepting of it for how we do business.”

Still, it’s an ongoing education.

Consider the case of Jalen Hurd, a Baylor wide receiver who transferred from Tennessee following a bizarre incident in 2016 that raised questions about his former school’s handling of concussion protocol. Hurd, then a running back, was sidelined during a game against Georgia with a concussion – yet grabbed his helmet and ran on the field anyway to participate in a desperation kickoff return in the final seconds.

After that, Hurd remained isolated in his room for the better part of a week while dealing with concussion symptoms. He missed the following week’s game. Before he bolted from the team in midseason, he experienced further concussive symptoms.

“It definitely impacted me my last year at Tennessee with my concussion,” Hurd reflected during the combine. “You’ve got to be aware. I think at some points in my career, I wasn’t aware of what it could do. Luckily, it hasn’t done anything.”

Hurd said he’s learned lessons from the two concussions he suffered at Tennessee.

“All you can do with concussions is rest,” he said.

Another lesson: “Just being aware of your body,” he said, “making sure to know when you have a concussion, when to play … when not to play.”

Sometimes, the culture changes from within.

Why Cardinals aren't fooling anyone about No. 1 pick, the ineptitude of so many recent QB moves and more By Jason La Canfora CBSSpors.com March 10, 2019

In this league, and especially this time of year, there tends to be a ridiculous amount of smoke. And, sometimes, well, all it amounts to – "it" being a steadily-building cacophony of whispers and tweets and texts and, eventually, outright screams about a particular rumor – is smoke. And sometimes, well, what we are obsessing about is in fact just the worst kept secret in the history of the world.

In the case of Kyler Murray to the Cardinals with the first-overall pick, it is decidedly the latter. Something that steadily built and then caught fire at the combine last week refuses to go away. And that is because it is going to happen. Every conversation I have had since getting back from Indianapolis – including several with people who would have first-hand knowledge of such an arrangement between said player and team – has led me to believe, thoroughly and completely, that this is going to happen.

The Cardinals ownership knows it. Kliff Kingsbury knows it. Kyler Murray knows it. It is happening.

It's been in the works since the Cardinals decided to take a leap on the offensive-minded head coach who just got fired in the Big 12 with a losing record and who had just been brought on as an offensive coordinator at USC. This is Kingsbury's quarterback, and, by virtue of their lost season and 3-13 record, the Cardinals have the first selection in the draft, and so it's case closed. Done deal.

Whereas a week ago I would have told you Murray is definitely going top five, and whereas three days ago I would have told you Murray is going first overall – but perhaps not to Arizona if someone blew them away with a trade offer – I am now thoroughly convinced that this is the surest first-overall-QB lock in March since . And, trust me, by this point Josh Rosen, the kid the Cardinals traded up to select 10th overall less than a year ago, absolutely, positively must know it as well. How can he not?

(Brief aside: Waste not any more breath or time or brain power on the report about Murray's lack of leadership and ability to lead and, apparently, make a half-decent impression on NFL teams. He is going first overall. None of that matters even if true – it's not – and let's try not to reach peak Silly Season less than a week after the combine, okay? There are still, like, seven weeks until the draft. Let's pace ourselves).

Of course, the Cardinals won't proclaim it now. It serves them no purpose to do so. They have already devalued Rosen exponentially on their own. No reason to further crush their own limited trade market by announcing their intent. And a lot could happen, in theory, between now and late April, when they actually turn in the card with Murray's name on it.

But they also aren't fooling anyone, either. And it would behoove them to go ahead and deal Rosen now, lest some college quarterbacks boost their stock at their pro days or on their personal visits. No reason to let Rosen dangle; he didn't ask for any of this and doesn't deserve any of this, and he's not the guy who spent last training camp suspended, and he didn't hire Steve Wilks only to fire him like 10 months later and he didn't give Sam Bradford $15M to start games and fire offensive coordinator Mike McCoy in October.

Yet it is very much he who got pummeled behind a faux offensive line and had no talent and little scheme around him to boost him up and it is he who, probably, lost confidence with an entire organization now caught up very publicly in this Murray escapade. It is he who must be wondering if the Cardinals would have simply traded up to 10th overall (it was clear by this time a year ago the Raiders were incredibly motivated to trade out of that pick and were shopping it all over) for whomever the fourth QB off the board in the 2018 draft was going to be. If/when the Cards draft Murray how could you presume anything but that?

And, sadly for Rosen, it is he who is still probably headed to Washington – where quarterbacks go to get broken, and where no one who has followed this sport for any amount of time could expect him to succeed. This Case Keenum trade changes nothing and, if anything, gives the Skins a little more cover to offer no more than a third-round pick for Rosen.

Where else is he going?

Washington still needs a young potential starter and is hampered by Alex Smith's injury guarantees, limiting them to cheap options like Rosen (and at 15th overall they are in no-man's land for QBs in this draft). Miami might make some sense … but they may have eyes on Tua Tagovailoa or in 2020. Otherwise, what am I missing? Jacksonville is in win-now mode when it should be rebuilding, and makes the most sense for them (at, say $15M per year). Some have suggested New England – newsflash: if Brady goes down they ain't winning anything with Rosen and they could sign Jacoby Brissett as a UFA a year from now to be Brady's heir, again.

Are you following all of this? We are now at a point where the following have taken place in less than a year:

The Broncos gave Case Keenum $25M fully guaranteed over two years at a point in free agency in which they had little competition for his services, with at least some eye toward Gary Kubiak being his OC by 2019. Kubiak and John Elway had another falling out. Kubiak left for Minnesota, where Keenum had his breakthrough 2017 season, and Elway traded a fourth-round pick for a quarterback making $18M who has a worse QB rating than Case Keenum since 2012 (Joe Flacco) at a time when the Ravens had no other real trade options for Flacco, who they would have cut had Denver not dealt for him given his $26M cap charge.

The Skins paid Alex Smith $54M guaranteed in future years when they could have rented Smith for one year at $17M and then franchised him twice in a row for less money than what they gave him at the time of the trade (oh, and they traded a starting slot corner as well). So when Smith gets hurt – career- ending, in all likelihood – they now take Keenum off Elway's hands, even though Denver would have had to merely cut him shortly because it couldn't carry Flacco and Keenum at $18M each and still rebuild a roster.

And, with Keenum and Colt McCoy "competing" for a starting job, they still need a young QB of any stature, so they are the best bet to trade for Rosen, who the Cardinals moved up to draft 10th overall, just, like, 10 months ago, and are now primed to take yet another quarterback first-overall.

Somewhere in New England, Bill Belichick is laughing himself silly. No need to wonder why certain teams compete with regularity and others constantly flail. No mystery as to why inefficiency plagues this league despite every part of the NFL's structure built to ensure parity and corporate welfare for billionaires. And the league year hasn't even officially opened yet.

Antonio Brown gets $30 million guaranteed over the next three years By Mike Florio Pro Football Talk March 10, 2019

Soon-to-be Raiders receiver Antonio Brown was due to earn zero dollar and zero cents of guaranteed money over the next three years. Instead, he’ll get $30 million, fully guaranteed.

Per a source with knowledge of the terms of the looming contract restructuring, the Raiders will guarantee $30 million of Brown’s future payout. Also, the total amount he was due to earn through 2021 will increase from $38.925 million to $50.125 million.

There are multiple ways to assess the new deal. Brown will make $16.7 million per year in hard dollars over the next three seasons. But when the $11.2 million is added to the $68 million in new money that Brown received two years ago from the Steelers, the new-money average on the entire deal spikes from $17 million to $19.8 million.

Brown also can trigger $4 million in incentives, which would be paid in 2020 and 2021. If earned, he’ll receive an extra $15.2 million over the next three years, and the new-money average of the deal he signed with Pittsburgh in 2017 will be $20.8 million.

Regardless of how the cat is skinned, Brown had made $33.79 million over the last two years and he was due to make $38.925 million, with no guarantees. That number has now gone up by $11.2 million, with $30 million of the $50.125 million he’ll make over the next three seasons now fully guaranteed.

It’s not a bad outcome for a guy who was tied to the Steelers for three more seasons, and who presumably had no leverage to either demand a trade or finagle a new deal.

Which player should demand a trade next? By Mike Florio Pro Football Talk March 10, 2019

With Steelers receiver Antonio Brown closing in on his much-desired trade to a new team, Friday’s PFT Live spun things forward, as it relates to other players wanting trades.

Specifically, we did a draft of which other players should want trades.

Big Cat and yours truly drafted the guys we’d most like to see demand trades. Not that any of them will or should or could. They’re just the guys we’d like to see give it a try.

The results can been seen and heard in the attached video. Watch it and then share some of your own thoughts in the comments.

And remember to tune in every Monday through Friday for PFT Live. The show starts on NBC Sports Radio at 6:00 a.m. ET, and with the final two hours simulcast on NBCSN from 7:00 a.m. ET to 9:00 a.m. ET. As you may have noticed, the two-hour TV simulcast is now re-aired on NBCSN from 9:00 a.m. ET to 11:00 a.m. ET.