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Rock River Basin Streamflow Assessment Model

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Rock River Basin Streamflow Assessment Model Contract Report 2004-02 Rock River Basin Streamflow Assessment Model by H. Vernon Knapp and Amy M. Russell Prepared for the Illinois Department of Natural Resources Office of Water Resources February 2004 Illinois State Water Survey Watershed Science Section Champaign, Illinois A Division of the Illinois Department of Natural Resources Rock River Basin Streamflow Assessment Model by H. Vernon Knapp and Amy M. Russell Watershed Science Section Illinois State Water Survey Illinois Department of Natural Resources Prepared for the Illinois Department of Natural Resources Office of Water Resources February 2004 Rock River Basin Streamflow Assessment Model By H. Vernon Knapp and Amy M. Russell Watershed Science Section Illinois State Water Survey Abstract The Illinois Streamflow Assessment Model (ILSAM) is an analytical and information tool developed to predict the frequency of streamflows, and water-use impacts on streamflows, for every stream in selected major watersheds in Illinois. Streamflow frequency predictions produced by the model are useful for evaluating in-stream flow levels for the protection of aquatic habitat, providing streamflow estimates for water-quality analyses and regulations, evaluating drought and its impact on water supplies, and classifying Illinois streams by their hydrologic character for use in watershed management. The current version of ILSAM was developed to operate on a personal computer having a Microsoft Windows 98/2000/XP operating system. The model user can obtain streamflow frequency estimates for any location in the watershed by identifying the desired stream and location. The ILSAM currently is developed for use with streams in eight watersheds: the Fox, Kankakee, Kaskaskia, Little Wabash, Mackinaw, Rock, Sangamon, and Vermilion-Illinois River basins. This report includes a description of the steps used to develop ILSAM for application to the Illinois portion of the Rock River basin, along with a description of the physical characteristics of the watershed, its surface water hydrology, and the factors that influence streamflow variability. The Rock River basin in northern Illinois and south-central Wisconsin has a total area of approximately 10,915 square miles (mi2), with about half (5317 mi2) in Illinois. Variations in landscape, soils, and land use have a substantial influence on the streamflow hydrology within any region. The landscape of the Rock River basin is quite varied and complex when compared to that of most other regions of Illinois, including the dissected, hilly terrain west of the Rock River, rolling hills covering much of the central portion of the basin, and the broad, flat outwash plain of the Green River Lowland. There is also considerable spatial variability in the permeability and drainage characteristics of the soils in the basin. In contrast, land use is comparatively homogeneous, with more than 80 percent of the basin in row crops or rural grassland. Urban and forest areas each account for an additional 5 percent of the land use. Several distinct hydrologic regions were identified as a result of physiographic variations in the basin. iii The hydrologic analyses used to develop the model include evaluating the streamflow record from gaging stations in the vicinity of the Rock River basin; evaluating impacts to flow quantity from dams, water supply, and treated wastewaters; and developing regional equations to estimate flows at ungaged sites throughout the watershed. The effects of the various human modifications to the flow in the basin have changed substantially over the history of the available streamflow records. Each flow record was analyzed to separate the effect of these human modifications from unaltered or “virgin flow” conditions influenced primarily by the climate, topography, hydrogeology, and prevailing land-use conditions in the watershed. The regional equations to estimate flow at ungaged sites are based on the virgin flow conditions, which are expected to be relatively homogenous throughout each region. The “present flow” conditions produced by ILSAM are flow frequency estimates that incorporate both the virgin flow and the present level of human modification in the basin as of 2001. Flow frequency estimates for each gaging record are adjusted to account for differences in period of record and other factors such as the interannual dependence (hydrologic persistence) of low flows. All ILSAM streamflow frequency estimates are representative of the long-term expected flow conditions of streams in the Rock River basin, reflecting hydrologic conditions over a base period of 61 years (1939-2000). iv Contents Page Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. 2 ILSAM Overview .......................................................................................................................... 3 Basic ILSAM Hydrologic Concepts .................................................................................. 3 Streamflow Information Produced by ILSAM .................................................................. 4 Database Used by ILSAM ................................................................................................. 6 Description of the Rock River Basin .............................................................................................7 Population .......................................................................................................................... 7 Land Cover......................................................................................................................... 7 Basin Physiography........................................................................................................... 9 Soil Characteristics .......................................................................................................... 11 Streams and Rivers .......................................................................................................... 13 Hydrologic Budget........................................................................................................... 18 Water Use......................................................................................................................... 23 Characteristics of Observed Streamflows.................................................................................... 25 Streamgaging Records..................................................................................................... 25 Streamflow Variability.................................................................................................... 25 Human Effects on Streamflows ....................................................................................... 28 Daily and Seasonal Variation in Flows............................................................................ 31 Statistical Trend Analysis ................................................................................................ 38 Factors in Estimating Flow Frequency at Gaged Sites................................................................ 41 Selecting a Representative Period for Estimating Long-Term Conditions...................... 41 Estimating Frequencies of Low Flows and Drought Flows ............................................ 41 Record Extension Techniques ......................................................................................... 44 Evaluating Human Modifications to Streamflows........................................................... 47 Results of Analysis .......................................................................................................... 47 Value of Gaging Data in Defining Flow Conditions in the Watershed........................... 49 Factors in Estimating Flow Frequency at Ungaged Sites............................................................ 51 Regional Equations for Estimating Virgin Flow at Ungaged Sites ................................. 51 Application of Regression Equations .............................................................................. 57 Error in Regression Model............................................................................................... 58 Estimation of Present Flow.............................................................................................. 58 Model Operation.......................................................................................................................... 61 Conclusions.................................................................................................................................. 63 References .................................................................................................................................... 65 Appendix A. Control Points: Location and Estimated 2001 Flow Conditions............................ 67 Appendix B. Withdrawals and Effluent Discharges: Location and Estimated 2001 Flow Conditions...................................................................................................... 93 Appendix C. NETWORK File Describing the Location of Streams, Control Points, Withdrawals, and Discharges in the Rock River basin.................................................. 135 Appendix D. Coefficients for Virgin Flow Equations..............................................................
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