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China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book

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China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book HK Property Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 14 January 2019 Local developers dominated the land HSI: 26,667 market • Kai Tak is the key source of land supply ANALYST Jeff YAU CFA, +852 3668 4180 • MTRC stepping up project launches [email protected] • Local developers dominated the land market Ian CHUI +852 3668 4174 Kai Tak is the key source of land supply. In 2018, the government sold [email protected] 11 residential or residential/commercial sites via public tender for HK$70.6bn. Upon completion, these projects are expected to provide Jason LAM +852 3668 4179 >5,500 residential units, of which about 74% will come from the Kai [email protected] Tak area. After SHKP (16.HK) paid a record price for the sizeable residential/retail lot adjacent to Kai Tak MTR Station, the government released three waterfront residential sites along the runway of the old airport onto the market for tender during Nov-Dec 18. A consortium equally owned by Henderson Land (12.HK), Wheelock (20.HK), New World Development (17.HK), and Empire Group won the tender for one of the sites. The joint venture arrangement allows the consortium members to diversify their investment risk. The other two went to Chinese companies, China Overseas Land (688.HK) and Goldin Financial (530.HK). MTRC stepping up project launches. In 2H18, MTRC (66.HK) offered two projects for tender. Cheung Kong Asset Holdings (1113.HK) defeated four other developers to secure the development rights of Wong Chuk Hang Station Package 3 in Aug-18. Compared to Packages 1&2, fewer developers participated in this tender because of the large lump sum involved. The profit-sharing ratio is lower than Packages 1&2, reflecting that MTRC has turned more conservative. In Oct-18, MTRC awarded the development rights of Ho Man Tin Station Package 2 to Chinachem. This marked the second residential lot Chinachem acquired in 2018. In Jan-18, this private developer won the tender for a residential site in Kwun Tong with a winning bid of HK$3.11bn. In 2018, Urban Renewal Authority (URA) put two redevelopment projects in Sham Shui Po for tender which altogether would produce about 470 units. The projects finally went to Henderson group of companies. After Hong Kong Ferry (50.HK, one of Henderson Land’s listed associates) secured the redevelopment rights of Tung Chau Street project, Henderson Land won the tender for Castle Peak Road project in Oct-18. Overall, we estimate c.8,600 units can be built on the sites sold via tenders by the government, MTRC and URA. Local developers dominated the land market. All major local developers replenished their land bank via various channels. On the other hand, China-based developers have become less active in land banking in Hong Kong after the State Council restricted domestic enterprises from making overseas real estate investments. In 2018, only three residential lots, two in Kai Tak and the other in Yau Tong, went to Chinese developers. In terms of land premium, the share from Chinese developers represented just 21% of land sales. ed - JS / sa- CS / AH China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book HK Property Land sales in 2018 Date Project/Lot No Location Location Usage GF A Land Land Dev elopers Est. no Premium Premium of units (sf) (HK$m) (HK$psf) Government Tender Jan-18 NKIL 6579 Kowloon Tong Kln R 436,400 12,451 28,531 Wharf 120 Jan-18 LN 1068 in survey district No.3 Kwun Tong Kln R 259,337 3,113 12,003 Chinachem Group 500 Apr-18 TYTL 192 Tsing Yi NT R 102,145 867 8,491 Wang On Group 300 May-18 NKIL 6568 Kai Tak Kln R/C 1,328,007 25,161 18,946 SHKP 1,470 Aug-18 NKIL 6593 Yau Tong Kln R/C 356,504 3,300 9,257 Poly Property (HK) 480 Oct-18 RBL 1211 The Peak HK R 404,303 Withdrawn Oct-18 LN 2883 in DD 130 Tuen Mun NT R 10,160 83 8,188 Private developer 40 Oct-18 LN 766 in DD 332 Cheung Sha NT R 23,691 160 6,754 Private developer 10 Nov-18 NKIL 6574 Kai Tak Kln R 574,609 8,333 14,502 Wheelock, New World, 850 Henderson Land, Empire Dev Nov-18 NKIL 6591 Kai Tak Kln R 574,728 8,907 15,497 Goldin Financial 850 Dec-18 LN 765 in DD 332 Cheung Sha NT R 11,582 204 17,604 Sino Land 5 Dec-18 NKIL 6575 Kai Tak Kln R 594,081 8,034 13,523 China Overseas Land 900 Railway Project Tender May-18 Yau Tong Ventilation Building Yau Tong Kln R 325,342 1,515 4,657 Sino Land/CSI consortium 500 site Aug-18 Wong Chuk Hang Station Ph 3 Wong Chuk Hang HK R/C 1,505,870 12,971 8,614 Cheung Kong Asset Holdings 1,200 Oct-18 Ho Man Tin Station Ph 2 Ho Man Tin Kln R 639,382 7,487 11,709 Chinachem Group 900 URA T ender Jun-18 Tung Chau Street redevelopment Sham Shui Po Kln R/C 144,345 1,029 10,519 * Hong Kong Ferry 209 Oct-18 Castle Peak Road redevelopment Sham Shui Po Kln R/C 159,738 1,368 10,907 Henderson Land 261 Source: Lands Department Page 2 China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book HK Property TABLE OF CONTENTS Share price performance 4 What were the transaction trends in primary and secondary markets? 7 What are the factors affecting residential demand and supply? 9 What projects were launched? 11 Where are the upcoming projects? 12 How about the office market? 13 How about the retail market? 14 What did corporates do? 16 Discount to NAV – Property developers & investors 19 Discount to NAV band – Property developers & investors 22 Price to book NAV band - REITs 25 Historical yield band - REITs 26 Any important dates to look out for? 27 Our past publications 28 Page 3 China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book HK Property Share price performance Property developer index vs HSI Property developer index vs HSI (6 month) 350 105 300 100 250 95 200 90 150 85 100 80 50 75 0 70 Jul/18 Jan/19 Oct/18 Sep/18 Dec/18 Nov/18 Jan/01 Jan/02 Jan/03 Jan/04 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Aug/18 HK property developers share price index HSI HK property developers share price index HSI Property investor vs HSI Property investor index vs HSI (6 month) 500 110 450 400 350 100 300 250 200 150 90 100 50 0 80 Jul/18 Jan/19 Jan/01 Jan/02 Jan/03 Jan/04 Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Oct/18 Sep/18 Dec/18 Nov/18 Aug/18 HK property investors share price index HSI HK property investors share price index HSI REIT vs HSI REIT index vs HSI (6 month) 390 105 340 290 100 240 95 190 140 90 90 40 85 Jul/18 Jul/07 Jul/08 Jul/09 Jul/10 Jul/12 Jul/13 Jul/14 Jul/16 Jul/17 Jul/18 Jul/11 Jul/15 Jan/19 Oct/18 Sep/18 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Dec/18 Nov/18 Aug/18 REITs share price index HSI REITs share price index HSI Source: Thomson Reuters; DBS HK Page 4 China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book HK Property Valuation – Property developers Disc. to Mk t Last 12-m PE PE F orw ard F orw ard Yield Yield Company Code FYE Cap Price target Recom F Y18 F Y19 NA V NA V F Y18 F Y19 HK$bn HK$ HK$ x x HK$ % % % CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK Dec 237 64.10 71.40 BUY 7.1 8.7 113.8 (44) 2.9 3.1 CSI Property 497 HK Mar 3 0.34 0.41 BUY 3.3 3.2 1.7 (80) 4.2 3.7 Henderson Land 12 HK Dec 187 42.40 47.35 BUY 9.9 13.4 86.1 (51) 4.1 4.1 K Wah Int'l 173 HK Dec 12 3.94 4.98 BUY 3.8 3.2 14.2 (72) 5.1 5.1 Kerry Props 683 HK Dec 40 27.80 29.25 HOLD 9.5 6.7 83.6 (67) 4.7 4.5 Lai Sun Dev 488 HK Jul 8 13.00 12.90 BUY 41.8 7.4 43.0 (70) 0.8 0.8 MTR Corp 66 HK Dec 258 42.00 41.25 HOLD 24.2 22.6 53.2 (21) 2.7 2.7 New World Dev 17 HK Jun 116 11.38 13.40 BUY 14.2 12.2 26.8 (58) 4.2 4.5 Sino Land 83 HK Jun 98 14.52 14.54 BUY 8.4 23.9 26.4 (45) 6.7 ^ 3.7 SHKP 16 HK Jun 353 122.00 134.00 BUY 11.6 11.5 243.7 (50) 3.8 3.8 Tai Cheung 88 HK Mar 5 7.80 9.00 BUY 13.6 7.4 23.2 (66) 4.5 4.5 Wharf 4 HK Dec 68 22.35 26.10 HOLD 10.3 10.9 53.4 (58) 3.0 2.8 Wheelock & Co.
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