SOME DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS FOR COMMERCIAL EXPLOITATION OF [INTERACTIVE) MICROCOMPUTER BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

by Scott Bleackley B.Sc., Simon Fraser University, 1 979

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in the Department of Computing Science

o Scott Bleackley 1984 Simon Fraser University December 1984

A1 1 rights reserved. This thesis may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. APPROVAL

Name: Scott Bleackley

Degree: Master of Science

Title of Thesis: Some Design Considerat ions for Commercial Expioitation of (interactive) Microcomputer based Decision Support Systen-ts

Examining Committee:

Senior Supervisor

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Title of Thesis/Project/Extended Essay

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Author: .4 Abstract

This thesis explores some design considerat ions for commercial exploitation of Decision Support systems for powerful, inexpensive microcomputers. We examine software packages which contain elements of Decision Support but are not sold as Decision Support software. From these packages we learn that the decision maker must have enough control to change the system so that the system reflects his or her world, rather than being fixed to the designer's concept of the decision maker's world. We w i1 l look at the source of the know ledge in the Decision Support system. Public knowledge about the context and the source of the data allows decision makers to judge the credibility of the information used within a Decision Support system. We discuss the problems of turning private knowledge about the decision making domain into public knowledge and embedding this knowedge into a Decision Support system. We also examine artificial intelligence programming in order to gain some understanding of existing techniques for dealing with uncertainty. We explore the possibility of using some of these techniques to deal with the inherent uncertainty of decision making. During the design of a Decision Support system the product's market must be careful ly considered. Otherwise, even a we1 l designed and implemented system will not be commercially viable. We look at several factors which affect the market for Decision Support systems including the rapidly increasing power of microcomputersandtheeffe~tofexistingsoftwareonbyers'ex~ectations. Taking all of the factors into account, we expect the trend in the future to be toward more powerful and intelligent Decision Support tools on micro computers. Table of Contents

Approval ...... ii

Abstract ...... iii

Table of Contents ...... iv List of Tables ...... v List of Figures ...... vi List of Trademarks ...... vii

Chapter 1 : l ntroduction ...... I SystemsReview ...... 10 Market Considerations ...... 24 Chapter 2 : Human Computer Interaction ...... 30

Chapter 3 : Important Aspects of Unconventional Decision Support Systems ...... 45 Chapter 4 : Design as a Process of Problem Solving ...... 56 Chapter 5 : Dealing with Uncertainty ...... 73

Chapter 6 : Know ledge in a Decision Support system: views and extendabili ty ...... 80 Chapter 7 : Communication and Interaction ...... 96 Chapter 8 : Conclusions ...... 108 References ...... 120 List of Tables