SOME DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS FOR COMMERCIAL EXPLOITATION OF [INTERACTIVE) MICROCOMPUTER BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS by Scott Bleackley B.Sc., Simon Fraser University, 1 979 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in the Department of Computing Science o Scott Bleackley 1984 Simon Fraser University December 1984 A1 1 rights reserved. This thesis may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. APPROVAL Name: Scott Bleackley Degree: Master of Science Title of Thesis: Some Design Considerat ions for Commercial Expioitation of (interactive) Microcomputer based Decision Support Systen-ts Examining Committee: Senior Supervisor . - PART I AL COPYR l GHT L l CEMSE I hereby grant to Simon Fraser University the right to lend my thesis, project or extended essay (the title of which is shown below) to users of the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of Its users. I further agree that permission for multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by me or the Dean of Graduate Studies. It is understood that copying or publication of this work for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Title of Thesis/Project/Extended Essay I ero ~ornduV2 b~deh r-cZris;dd S Author: .4 Abstract This thesis explores some design considerat ions for commercial exploitation of Decision Support systems for powerful, inexpensive microcomputers. We examine software packages which contain elements of Decision Support but are not sold as Decision Support software. From these packages we learn that the decision maker must have enough control to change the system so that the system reflects his or her world, rather than being fixed to the designer's concept of the decision maker's world. We w i1 l look at the source of the know ledge in the Decision Support system. Public knowledge about the context and the source of the data allows decision makers to judge the credibility of the information used within a Decision Support system. We discuss the problems of turning private knowledge about the decision making domain into public knowledge and embedding this knowedge into a Decision Support system. We also examine artificial intelligence programming in order to gain some understanding of existing techniques for dealing with uncertainty. We explore the possibility of using some of these techniques to deal with the inherent uncertainty of decision making. During the design of a Decision Support system the product's market must be careful ly considered. Otherwise, even a we1 l designed and implemented system will not be commercially viable. We look at several factors which affect the market for Decision Support systems including the rapidly increasing power of microcomputersandtheeffe~tofexistingsoftwareonbyers'ex~ectations. Taking all of the factors into account, we expect the trend in the future to be toward more powerful and intelligent Decision Support tools on micro computers. Table of Contents Approval ........................................................................................................................ ii Abstract ........................................................................................................................ iii Table of Contents ...................................................................................................... iv List of Tables .............................................................................................................. v List of Figures ............................................................................................................. vi List of Trademarks .................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1 : l ntroduction ........................................................................................ I SystemsReview .................................................................................. 10 Market Considerations ...................................................................... 24 Chapter 2 : Human Computer Interaction .......................................................... 30 Chapter 3 : Important Aspects of Unconventional Decision Support Systems ............................................................... 45 Chapter 4 : Design as a Process of Problem Solving .................................. 56 Chapter 5 : Dealing with Uncertainty ............................................................... 73 Chapter 6 : Know ledge in a Decision Support system: views and extendabili ty .................................................................. 80 Chapter 7 : Communication and Interaction ................................................... 96 Chapter 8 : Conclusions .............................................................................................. 108 References ..................................................................................................................... 120 List of Tables Table 1 : Characteristics of some traditional and non-traditional Decision Support systems ............................................................... 22 Table 2 : Important aspects of Unconventional Decision Support systems .................................................................. 46 Table 3 : Techniques for Dealing with Uncertainty .................................. 78 Table 4: Available Knowledge Development Tools .................................. 92 List of Figures Figure 1 : Traditional decision support concepts ....................................... Figure 2 : Programming by Rehearsal application : Clocks ........................ Figure 3 : Macintosh sets new standard for interaction : MacPaint ...... Figure 4 : Simplistic Decision Making ............................................................... Figure 5 : Linear Process of Design ...................................................................... Figure 6 : Circular Process of Design ................................................................ Figure 7 : Feedback Process of Design .............................................................. Figure 8 : Branching Process of Design ............................................................ Figure 9 : Natural Process of Design ................................................................. Figure 0 : Project Chart ..................................................................................... 68 Figure 1 : Resource Chart ...................................................................................... 69 Figure 2: Planning: Possible approaches / Project Plan ........................ 73 Fi gure 3: Existing low cost decision support: Odesta Helix ................ 84 Figure 4 : Major Components of a Contemporary Know ledge system ................................................................................ 91 F igure 5 : Graphics for know ledge capture ...................................................... 94 Figure 6 : What aspects of Decision Support are Important to Whom ................................................................................ 109 Figure 1 7 : Three Views of Decision Support ................................................... 110 List of Trademarks Apple, Lisa, MacPaint & MacProject are trademarks of Apple Computer Inc. Macintosh is a trademark licensed to Apple Computer, Inc. VisiCalc and Vision are the trademarks of VisiCorp. Thinktank is the trademark of Living Videotext, Inc. Mindsight and Planning Laboratory are trademarks of Execucom System Corporation Conquer, Manager's Baseball and Money Trader are trademarks of Sydney Development Corporation. Context MBA is the trademark of Context Management Systems Chapter One Introduction Decision Support is a term originally used within the business community to refer to any computer function that could provide some useful information to the decision maker. Generally, these functions are represented by: data base query analysis for retrieving appropriate data, spread sheet operations for manipulating the data, and charting for presenting the data in a meaningful form. In addition, project management systems like 'Pro jacs" ( ISM ) and domain specific expert systems like 'Explorer" (Lehnert 1 982) are also being used to support decision making. Decision Support is a complex, real-world problem that currently has only fragmented and not well understood solutions. As an area of study, Decision Support is another way of viewing problems that have been studied in artificial intell igence and cogni t ive science for many years. The basic orientation of Decision Support is to provide an environment and tools that assist an individual's methods of making decisions in an ongoing fashion. Note that while expert systems may be used as a component of Decision Support, the basic orientation of the two disciplines are different. Expert systems attempt to empower the computer with enough knowledge to make decisions while Decision Support systems attempt to empower the individual with enough know \edge to make decisions. Decision Support is much more than aiding a decision-maker through a series of isolated decisions. It encompasses the problem of integrating constantly changing information into th~e decision making environment.