UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE ARQUITECTURA DE MADRID Floating Structures as a Means of Safeguarding Coastal Urbanizations Sovereignty Against the Rising Seas: A Floating Community for Egypt Doctoral Thesis Ahmed Ashraf Mohamed ElShihy, Architectural Engineer, and Master’s in Advanced Architecture and City Planning 2019 INTERDEPARTAMENTAL ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE ARQUITECTURA DE MADRID Floating Structures as a Means of Safeguarding Coastal Urbanizations Sovereignty Against the Rising Seas: A Floating Community for Egypt Author: Ahmed Ashraf Mohamed ElShihy, Architectural Engineer, and Master’s in Advanced Architecture and City Planning Thesis Director: José María Ezquiaga Domínguez, Ph.D. Architect 2019 Tribunal nombrado por el Magnifico y Excelentísimo Sr. Rector de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid el día………………………de………………………de 2019. Presidente D. ……………………………………….……………………… Vocal D. ……………………………………….……………………… Vocal D. ……………………………………….……………………… Vocal D. ……………………………………….……………………… Secretario D. ……………………………………….……………………… Realizado el acto de defensa y lectura de la tesis el día……………………… de………………………de 2019 en la Escuela Técnica Superior de Arquitectura de Madrid. Calificación: ……………………………………….……………………… EI PRESIDENTE LOS VOCALES EI SECRETARIO ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my director and tutor, Prof. Dr. José María Ezquiaga Domínguez for your guiding and support throughout this thesis. You have set a great example of excellence as a researcher, mentor and tutor. I would like to give a special thanks to my family for the love and support they have provided me. In particular, I would like to thank and dedicate this Ph.D. thesis to my father and role model Prof. Dr. Ashraf Mohamed El Shihy, Minister of Higher Education and Minister of Scientific Research of Egypt, and my mother Prof. Dr. Eman Ahmed Aly Ismail. I would also like to thank my sister Dr. Dina El Shihy, my brother Youssef El Shihy, and my aunts Prof. Dr. Rasha Ahmed Aly Ismail and Prof. Dr. Heba Ahmed Aly Ismail. Also, I would like to thank Dr. Mohamed AbdelKader. Finally, I would like to thank and dedicate this thesis to my grandfather, Prof. Dr. Ahmed Aly Ismail and my grandmother Hemmat El Hendawy. It was you who originally generated my love for geography, history, culture and nature that is reflected in my passion to architecture, urbanism, city and heritage. Even though it has been years since you both have passed away, I still remember your lessons and learn from it everyday. v vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................... vii RESUMEN...........................................................................................................................xvii ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... xix 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Context ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 Previous Studies ..................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Motivation and Scope of the Research ............................................................... 4 1.3.1 Research Gaps......................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 Hypothesis ............................................................................................................... 6 1.3.3 Significance of the Research Topic ......................................................................... 7 1.4 Analytical Research Framework ......................................................................... 8 1.4.1 Objectives and Research Questions ........................................................................ 8 1.4.2 Limitations and Constraints .................................................................................10 1.4.3 Methodology ...........................................................................................................12 1.4.4 Evaluation ..............................................................................................................13 1.4.5 Outline of the Thesis ..............................................................................................13 2. STATE OF THE ART REVIEW ................................................................................... 15 vii 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 15 2.2 History of SLR Impacts on the Nile Delta ........................................................ 16 2.2.1 Population, Expansion, and Land-shortage in the Nile Delta ..............................17 2.3 SLR Impacts on the Most Vulnerable Mega-deltas ........................................ 18 2.3.1 Long-term SLR Impacts on the Most Vulnerable Regions ...................................22 2.4 SLR Impacts on Egypt and Adaptation Approaches ..................................... 24 2.4.1 Egypt’s Plans Against SLR Impacts ......................................................................26 2.4.2 Adaptation Approaches Executed Against SLR Impacts in the Nile Delta of Egypt 27 2.4.3 Most Common Adaptation Approaches Against SLR ...........................................28 2.4.4 Floating Structures as a Solution for Tackling SLR Impacts ...............................30 2.5 Outline and Summary .......................................................................................... 32 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ................................................................................... 35 3.1 Research Outline .................................................................................................. 35 3.2 Data and Methods ................................................................................................. 37 3.3 Design Methodology and Guidelines for Case Study .................................... 45 3.3.1 Research Methodology for Sustainability .............................................................47 3.4 Constraints, Limitations, and Assumptions .................................................... 48 3.4.1 Constraints .............................................................................................................48 3.4.2 Limitations .............................................................................................................49 3.4.3 Assumptions ...........................................................................................................51 3.4.4 Alternative Solutions for VLFS .............................................................................52 3.5 Analytical Framework and Interpretation ...................................................... 52 4. ANALYSIS ON SOLUTIONS TO SLR IMPACTS AND FLOATING COMMUNITY CASES .................................................................................................................................... 57 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 57 4.2 Evaluation on Adaptation Approaches and Mitigation Solutions Against SLR Impacts ..................................................................................................................... 59 4.2.1 Barriers .................................................................................................................61 4.2.2 Coastal Armoring ..................................................................................................64 4.2.3 Elevated Development ..........................................................................................67 4.2.4 Floating Structures ...............................................................................................69 4.2.5 Floodable Developments .......................................................................................71 4.2.6 Living Nearshore ..................................................................................................74 4.2.7 Managed Retreat ..................................................................................................76 4.2.8 Findings and Further Solutions to SLR Impacts .................................................78 4.3 Types of Floating Houses .................................................................................... 84 viii 4.3.1 Benefits of Building on Water ...............................................................................85 4.3.2 Basic Types of Floating Houses .............................................................................86 4.4 Comparative Analysis on in-Depth Case Studies ........................................... 88 4.4.1 Uros Islands, pre-Incan Floating Community in Lake Titicaca, Peru and Bolivia 89 4.4.2 The Ha Long Floating Fishing Communities, Vietnam ........................................93 4.4.3 The Floating