Baseline Statistics & Evidence Base

Baseline and Evidence Base

Annea_A_cover.indd 1 15/03/2017 09:10 Where verbatim extracts from reports are presented within this document they do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors or DCSDC but are there for information purposes only. These are contained within shaded boxes and referenced accordingly.

Stats_01.indd 2 03/06/2015 11:22 Contents

7 Purpose of the Briefing Paper 8 Key Findings

11 Structure of the Report 12 Statistical Sources 13 Choice of Geography 14 Context and Background for Analysis and Interpretation of Data 14 Relationship between Multiple Deprivation Measure domains 15 The Use of Spatial Measures for the Targeting of Need: OFMDFM:2013

17 Context: Social 17 General Demographic Trends, DCSDC, NI, Donegal

26 Context: Economic 26 Economy and Society OFMDFM - Impact of Welfare Reform on NI, 2013 30 Universal Credit in Northern Ireland: what will its impact be, and what are the challenges? 33 DCSDC SOA 2010 Deprivation – Domains and Sub-Domains Ranked 35 Multiple Deprivation Measures for DCSDC (2010)

40 Community Planning: THEME 1: SOCIAL 40 1.1: Health 51 1.2 Cultural Deprivation Index 62 1.3: Sport 63 1.4: Volunteering 79 2.3: Suicide

81 Community Planning: THEME 2: ECONOMY 81 2.1: Employment/Economic Activity 93 2.2 Tourism 97 2.2: Education 105 2.3 Skills

109 Community Planning: THEME 3: ENVIRONMENTAL Derry District Housing Plan & Local Housing Strategy 2014/2015, NIHE

117 Fuel Poverty 129 Rurality 139 Equality

Stats_01.indd 3 03/06/2015 11:22 139 Ethnicity: Detailed Characteristics for NI on Ethnicity, Country of Birth and Language – Census 2011 127 Disability 128 Gender 142 Older People 144 Children 146 Health –Sub-Regional Data, DHSSPS

17 Graph 1: Birth Rate per 1,000 female population aged 15-44 years, 2003-05 to 2011-13 (broken axis) 18 Graph 2: Total Period Fertility Rate, 2003-05 to 2011-13 18 Graph 3: Crude death rate per 1,000 population, 2008-2013 19 Graph 4: Population Pyramid - Derry City and Strabane District Council, 2015 19 Graph 5: Population Pyramid - Derry City and Strabane District Council, 2037 21 Graph 6: Derry City and Strabane District Council population projections (breaks in series) 2002-2037 22 Graph 7: Percentage change in population for Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI, 2013-2037 24 Graph 8: Cross-border commuters (work or study), 2011 Censuses (RoI and NI) 49 Graph 9: Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2005 & 2010 62 Graph 10: Levels of participation in sport by the Sport Deprivation Index 79 Graph 11: Suicide rate per 100,000 population, 2002-12 80 Graph 12: Crude suicide rate, deaths per 100,000 population (2004-08 to 2008-12) 85 Graph 13: Proportion of employee jobs by industry sector, 2009-2013 86 Graph 14: % Construction Jobs 2009, 2011 and 2013 86 Graph 15: % Construction Jobs, 2013 by old LGD 87 Graph 16: Non LFA farms and LFA farms for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council, Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI 88 Graph 17: Gross Annual Median Earnings based on work postcode for Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI (£) 90 Graph 18: Claimant count by skill level for Derry City and Strabane District Council. April 2015 (usual occupation as at April 2014) 91 Graph 19: Claimant count for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council and NI, January 2005 to March 2015 (% 0f 16-64) 91 Graph 20: % of those aged 18-24 who have been claiming for more than 1 year for DCC, SDC and NI, February 2010 to April 2015 92 Graph 21: Population aged 16-64 - reasons for inactivity for Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI 99 Graph 22: Pre-school enrolments in schools situated in the DCSDC area, 2007/08-2014/15 100 Graph 23: Qualification levels of those people aged 25-59 for Derry City and Strabane District Council 102 Graph 24: Pupils achieving at least 5 GCSE’s grades A*-C (or equivalent) (including English and Mathematics) (%) by LGD, 2008-2012

Stats_01.indd 4 03/06/2015 11:22 102 Graph 25: % who have achieved 2+ A-levels (or equivalent) (%) by LGD 2007-2012 103 Graph 26: % Percentage achieving at least 5 GCSEs A*-C (inc. equivalents) inc. GCSE English and maths 2012/13 Free School Meals Entitlement for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council and NI 103 Graph 27: Percentage achieving at least 5 GCSEs A*-C (inc. equivalents) inc. GCSE English and maths 2012/13 Non Free School Meals Entitlement for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council and NI 104 Graph 28: Percentage achieving at least 5 GCSEs A*-C (inc. equivalents) inc. GCSE English and maths 2012/13 by gender for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council and NI 107 Graph 29: LAC Municipal waste sent for recycling (including composting) as a % of total LAC municipal waste arisings, 2005/06 TO 2013/14 for Derry City Council area, Strabane District Council Area, NI and NWRWMG 111 Graph 30: Household waste sent for recycling (including composting) as a percentage of household waste arisings by district council area 114 Graph 31: Annual CO2 emission estimates for Derry City Council area and Strabane District Council Area (ktCO2) 115 Graph 32: Annual CO2 per capita emission estimates, Derry City Council area, Strabane District Council Area and NI (t) 115 Graph 33: Fuel Poverty Risk Index, (baseline indicator of need) mapped at COA level. Ineligible COAs, and LGD shown 117 Graph 34: Household composition projections 2014-24 123 Graph 35: Applicants in housing stress: 30 pts plus (NIHE new, NIHE transfer, and HA transfer by District Council area for 2013 125 Graph 36: Proportion of Households in Fuel Poverty 128 Graph 37: Non LFA farms and LFA farms for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council, Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI 132 Graph 38: Agricultural Labour for Derry City and Strabane District Council Area 133 Graph 39: Number of VAT and/or PAYE Registered businesses operating in NI by New LGD and broad industry group 133 Graph 40: Number of VAT and/or PAYE Registered businesses operating in NI by New LGD and broad industry group

15 Table 1: SOA level correlations between deprivation domain ranks 20 Table 2: Change in population structure - Derry City and Strabane District Council, 2015 to 2037 23 Table 3: Extract from Table 5.1 Conference Report Spaceial North West, 2014 28 Table 4: Overall impact of welfare reform on NI by 2014/15, by local government district – Sheffield Hallam estimates 29 Table 5: Overall impact of welfare reforms by 2014/15 by UK local authority - Sheffield Hallam estimates 33 Table 6: NI Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 (statistical geographies) 10% 39 Table 7: NI Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 (statistical geographies) (20%)

Stats_01.indd 5 03/06/2015 11:22 47 Table 8: Output areas (OAs) located in Derry City and Strabane District Council that fall within 20% most deprived OAs in NI but which do not reside with respective deciles of most deprived super output areas in NI 66 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data 74 Table 10: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (DLA) 84 Table 11: Employee jobs by Council area, 2009 -2013 84 Table 12: Employee jobs by Council area by gender and job status, 2013 87 Table 13: Agriculture labour force 88 Table 14: Gross annual median earnings for DCSDC, 2014 (£) 89 Table 15: Median gross annual earnings for full-time employees in the public and private sectors for DCSDC, 2014 (£) 93 Table 16: Estimated overnight Trips, Nights and Expenditure by Local Government District, 2013 94 Table 17: Estimated number of Nights spent on Overnight Trips in NI by Local Government District, 2011-2013 95 Table 18: Estimated Spend (£) during Overnight Trips in NI by Local Government District, 2011-2013 99 Table 19: Pre-school enrolments in schools situated in the DCSDC area, 2007/08-2014/15 100 Table 20: Qualifications of school leavers by 2014 district council of pupil residence 2013/2014 106 Table 21: Skills classification and terminology 113 Table 22: Results of Automatic Monitoring for Particulate Matter (PM10) 116 Table 23: Method of travel to work for those aged 16-74 and in employment and currently working (%) 125 Table 24: Urban – Rural composition of Derry City and Strabane District Council area 130 Table 25: Rural SOAs within Derry City and Strabane District Council 131 Table 26: Ethnicity 2011 Census. LGD(2014)

64 Map 1: Deprivation - Health Deprivation and Disability (HDD) Domain Rank 53 Map 2: NI Multiple Deprivation Rank (NIMDM) 82 Map 3: Deprivation - Employment Domain (ED) Rank 98 Map 4: Deprivation - Education, Skills and Training (EST) Domain Rank 110 Map 5: Deprivation: Living Environment (LE) Domain Rank 119 Map 6: Deprivation - Living Environment Domain - Housing Access (HA) Sub- Domain Rank 120 Map 7: Deprivation - Living Environment Domain - Outdoor Physical Environment (OPE) Sub Domain Rank 121 Map 8: Deprivation - Crime and Disorder Domain - Crime (CR) Sub-Domain Rank 122 Map 9: Deprivation - Crime and Disorder Domain - Disorder (DS) Sub-Domain Rank 124 Map 10: Deprivation - Housing Quality (HQ) Sub-Domain Rank 126 Map 11: Deprivation - Income Deprivation Affecting Children (IDAC) Rank 129 Map 12: Deprivation - Proximity to Services (PXS) Domain Rank 156 Map 13: Deprivation - Income Deprivation Affecting Older People (IDOP) Rank

Stats_01.indd 6 03/06/2015 11:22 Purpose of the Briefing Paper

There is an overwhelming volume of data available relating to the socio-economic conditions existing within the Derry and Strabane District Council Area in 2015. Based on Ilex’s experience in facilitating the development of the One Plan in 2011, including preparation of the Analysis of Inequality and the Equality Impact Analysis (EQIA), it is proposed to keep the focus on the dissemination of key metrics to assist decision making. Where further detail is required and is available NISRA statisticians can help source the required data. This approach is intended to facilitate the Community Planning process as it develops and deepens, enabling greater focus upon specific areas as the need arises.

Stats_01.indd 7 03/06/2015 11:22 Key Findings

Demography 1. Comparative analysis of these rates from the 2002 NISRA population projections show that the growth rate has decelerated significantly during the last decade from 4.7%. This projection has now fallen to 0.5% in the next 10 years. 2. Projections up to 2037 show an aging population which peaks at 150,525 (DCSDC) and begins to decline as a proportion of the NI population in the mid 2020s. 3. The composition of the population is also undergoing significant change with an increasing number of individuals entering the workforce with a corresponding drop in the overall dependency ratio (proportion of those working age to the rest of the population). 4. In the longer term, by 2037, the population within the DCSDC area is moving closer to the NI structure i.e. ageing over time. By 2037 there will be an additional 12,000 over 70s and 5,400 fewer under 19s. 5. As a border region the net impact of commuting, relocation across borders and exchange rate volatility is unknown but it makes planning for the future all the more difficult.

Social 6. The area exhibits life expectancy levels on a par with NI but on closer inspection the urban deprived Super Output Areas have levels way below those in the affluent or rural areas. 7. Health outcomes were worse in the more deprived areas than in Derry and Strabane LGD as a whole across all 26 indicators. 8. Within DCSDC area all the indicators were worse than the NI average with the exception of the standardised admission rate for circulatory disease. 9. Cancer rates, prescriptions for anti-depressants, admissions to A&E for residents from the more deprived areas are all multiples of the rates for NI and non-deprived areas. 10. The numbers reliant on benefits within the DCSDC area means that any change in entitlements as envisaged within Welfare Reform has the potential to impact negatively upon the area. Government estimates vary but it could mean a loss of £86m per year to the local economy. 11. Within the new DCSDC area using Super Output area data 21% of the population (30,925) live in areas defined as deprived with an additional 24% at the 20% level equating to 45.6% of the overall population resident within the 10% and 20% SOAs. 12. While deprivation measures are appropriate for urban deprivation estimation they are less reliable for rural areas. Using Output Area rather than Super Output area data it is estimated there are an additional forty Output Areas (almost half within rural areas) that contain deep pockets of multiple deprivation.

Stats_01.indd 8 03/06/2015 11:22 Economic 13. The Economic Activity rate in DCSDC is 68.3%, 4.4% points below that in NI. The full-time gross median earnings (work postcode) in 2014 was £ 23,079 which is 4% below the NI average and 17% below Belfast. 14. Full-time female median wages are £23,620, 17% above the male rate in DCC area. This is likely a result of higher numbers of females in the public sector. 15. Of those in employment 34% are public sector workers, predominantly in the fields of Health and Education. 16. There are over 50,000 employee jobs in the DCSDC area, 32,346 are full-time. 17. The claimant count rate in DCSDC in April 2015 was 7.1% (NI rate was 3.8%). Over the course of the last three years the gap between the NI rate and the DCSDC rate is widening. 18. The trend within the claimant count for 18-24 year olds has been upward since mid-2012 in line with the experience elsewhere in NI. It is now three times the rate for DCSDC at over 21%. 19. Of those on the claimant count the majority have low to middle skills. In the 2011 Census 46% of respondents reported they had no or low skills within the DCSDC area. 20. While the business birth rate and survival rate, as represented by VAT registrations, is on a par with the rest of NI it does not appear to be impacting upon the net employment levels with little growth in employee numbers since 2009. 21. The area has seen general improvement in A-Level and GCSE attainment over the last number of years. 22. Females in Derry achieve the best results in GCSE (including Maths and English) followed by Derry males, Strabane females and Strabane males.

Environmental 23. Recycling rates in both Derry and Strabane areas are below the NI average. 24. The DCC area (22.7%)has a higher proportion of social housing than NI (14.9%). 25. In the DCC area 61.8% of those on the waiting list for social housing were in housing stress (NIHE). 26. In the DCC area, the NIHE has 6,895 dwellings having sold 8,152 under the House Sales Scheme. 27. In the DCC area, social housing need is projected at 1,731 from 2013-2018. 28. In NI, average household size is projected to fall from 2.45 in 2014 to 2.34 in 2024 and 2.24 by 2033. 29. There is expected to be a 10% increase in the number of households with most growth in single person and two-adult households without children. 30. CO2 per capita emissions within DCSDC in 2012 were estimated to be area below the NI average while Strabane CO2 is estimated to be above.

Stats_01.indd 9 03/06/2015 11:22 31. Within DCSDC area 3.7% people travel to work by bus, minibus or coach (NI: 4.8%). A further 2.9% travel by taxi (NI: 1.4%). 32. Within the DCSDC area 30% of the population reside in rural areas. 33. Fuel poverty levels in 2011 were estimated at 47-51% of households within DCC and 52-56% in Strabane DC 34. Rural dwellers, compared to urban dwellers, are likely to be healthy, a house owner, self-employed (male) and culturally deprived (Cultural Deprivation Index).

Stats_01.indd 10 03/06/2015 11:22 Structure of the Report

In the first part we provide a summary of the technical background to the report including some of the sources, choice of geography and reference material including a brief discussion on the appropriateness of using spatial measures for targeting need.

Next attention is paid to the underlying components of population change including a review of past population projections and the most recent ones for the new council area including probable impact on population structure.

The data includes general information on demographic trends both locally and within NI generally. It concludes with an early review of the key demographic features and outlines some possible implications for Community Planning. It provides more in- depth analysis of the information particularly numerical data on the numbers on various benefits within SOAs. The intention is to provide some idea of scale to those involved in making policy relevant to these areas.

The context within which Community Planning may take place is then addressed with an exploration of studies relating to the possible socio-economic impacts of welfare reform on NI and the Derry and Strabane District Council area. To assist in the needs assessment visual tables are presented outlining geographically by SOA deprivation across a range of measures.

The Community Planning pillars are addressed within the next section i.e. Social, Economy and Environmental with detailed information contained within each section on a diverse range of areas.

Throughout the report maps including thematic maps related to the MDM 2010 domains e.g. Income Deprivation Affecting Children, Crime, etc are presented with reference Super Output Areas (SOAs) identified.

Given the rural nature of much of the area under consideration there is a short review of the appropriateness of the application of MDMs in rural areas. This includes identification of the most deprived rural SOAs in the Council Area, their mapping and concludes with a brief examination of the Proximity to Services Domain and the results of a NI wide survey of rurality.

Finally, a selection of complementary material is provided, the majority at NI level, relating to a range of areas including Ethnicity, Gender, Older People and Children. This is presented to provide some relevant background material on individual characteristics of some groups simply as an aid where local official sources are not available or where the level of confidence is low given the small numbers.

It should be noted that there is statistical bespoke support available through the two NISRA staff seconded to Ilex who have access to the full range of NISRA disclosable data.

Claire Hood, NISRA & Hugh McNickle [email protected] [email protected]

Stats_01.indd 11 03/06/2015 11:22 Statistical Sources

Information providers include NISRA, departmental administrative data, and EQIA source material. This is comprised in the main of quantitative data. Complementary data sources have also been utilised such as the Economic and Research Council’s, The Necessities of Life in NI, March 2012, Health Inequalities, DHSSPSNI, 20141

The majority of information from the 2011 Census has now been released and provides much of the baseline data. In conjunction with Census data, not all official data sources are currently aggregated to the new ‘super-council’ i.e. DCSDC2 level. As a result on occasion, we have presented standalone data for the DCC and the SDC area, where this is the only information available.

The report contains a mixture of Census data, administrative data and survey data and provides, in most cases, a snap shot of the situation in the Derry City and Strabane District Council area. Each of these different types of data have their own strengths and weaknesses ranging from timing to robustness. Readers should be aware that where survey estimates are reported that these are subject to sampling variability. The statisticians who helped prepare this report are happy to provide any guidance on these issues.

The Citizen Survey 20153 for the DCSDC area will report in late Summer 2015. This will provide supplementary information to assist in the Community Planning process.

1 Reports are referenced as they appear within this document.

2 NISRA are presently engaged in aggregating 2011 Census data in line with the new Council boundaries across NI.

3 Citizen Survey 2015 continues Ilex’s survey work of Citi-Scope 2009 and 2012 with its expansion to include the whole of the DCSDC area. The survey will be conducted in the Spring of 2015 with a target number of circa 800 completed.

Stats_01.indd 12 03/06/2015 11:22 Choice of Geography

The report presents data at Local Government District (LGD) level, followed (where available and appropriate) by Super Output Area data. This is primarily in response to the variability is size amongst wards where they vary from 8,915 (Culmore) to 1,674 (East) in population size. While there is less variation amongst SOAs within the DCSDC they still range from 795 to 3,504 in population. Any comparative analysis of the data which involves numbers rather than the rates associated with a variable should keep this in mind e.g. an equivalent number of NEETS in a small and a big ward may indicate a larger issue in the small ward.

Additionally where there are comparatively small numbers involved e.g. births to teenage mothers at SOA level then the preference would be to seek to find trends over the course of a number of years rather than solely depend on one year’s data which might be subject to distortion from unknown random events or breaks in series. Thus three or five year averaged data may be the best way to present where there are small numbers.

More localised data sets are available including Output Area data (OA) (5022 in NI) but all of these are not presented within this report due to the small numbers at OA level for many of the variables.

However, some analysis identifying OA that are deprived which are not defined as such at SOA are presented at 10% and 20% deprivation levels. This is to enable policy makers to identify small pockets of deprivation especially those which occur in rural areas but also highlights urban pockets of deprivation.

Additional data sets can be accessed on request through the NISRA statistical support within Ilex, where data is available and disclosable. Work is underway to present some additional data at OA particularly with respect to the rural area in the next phase of research.

Stats_01.indd 13 03/06/2015 11:22 Context and Background for Analysis and Interpretation of Data There is a always a risk amongst those making policy to rely on out of date information and perceptions that may not be rooted in present reality. Thus, for example, at ward level it may be thought that the overwhelming need is for the provision of more play facilities, based on historic perceptions, when in fact the area may now comprise quite an elderly population. This lagged effect is particularly apparent where there is significant change, whether this is movement in population, or changes in economic circumstances. In order to counter this tendency this report will detail the latest information available on a spatial basis. Within this paper we seek to provide an easily accessible (draft) summary of many of the key relevant issues that, at this stage, appear to be relevant within a Community Planning Process.

Relationship between Multiple

Deprivation Measure domains

“Within the Multiple Deprivation Measures NISRA (NIMDM, 2010) have noted that

Six of the seven deprivation domain ranks at SOA level are positively correlated with each other indicating that an area experiencing one form of deprivation is likely to also experience other forms of deprivation. Of particular note were the strong positive correlations between the Income, Employment, Health Deprivation & Disability and Education, Skills & Training Domain ranks, with each pairwise correlation at least +0.84. (Correlation coefficient ranges from perfect negative correlation -1, to perfect positive correlation +1). The Living Environment and Crime & Disorder Domain ranks are also positively correlated with each other and the four domains described above, but to a lesser extent, with all pair-wise correlations at least

+0.48. The Proximity to Services Domain ranks show weak negative

correlations with the other six domains, suggesting that as Proximity to Services deprivation “ increases, deprivation in the other domains is likely to decrease. The table below shows the deprivation domain correlations for the SOA results.

In practice NISRA’s comments illustrate the fact that where, for example, there are high levels of unemployment (employment deprivation) that you are also likely to find high levels of poor health. Correlation is a statistical measure that describes the size and direction of a relationship between two or more variables. A correlation between variables, however, does not automatically mean that the change in one variable is the cause of the change in the values of the other variable.

Stats_01.indd 14 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 1 below presents the correlation matrix for the Multiple Deprivation Measures. A negative figure indicates a negative relationship e.g. proximity to services (proxy for rurality) is negatively related to a poor living environment whereas Education, Skills and Training is positively associated with employment.

Table 1: SOA level correlations between deprivation domain ranks

Health Education, Proximity to Crime & Income Employment Deprivation Skills & Living Services Disorder & Disability Training

Income 1.00

Employment 1.00 0.94

Health Deprivation 0.94 0.93 1.00 & Disability

Education, Skills & 0.88 0.84 0.85 1.00 Training

Proximity to -0.32 -0.29 -0.37 -0.36 1.00 Services

Living 0.61 0.54 0.59 0.64 -0.52 1.00 Environment

Crime & 0.55 0.48 0.55 0.54 -0.66 0.63 1.00 Disorder

Source: NIMDM, 2010 NIMDM 2010 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.91 -0.27 0.65 0.53

Below we present a short introduction to the debate around spatial targeting.

The Use of Spatial Measures for the Targeting of Need: OFMDFM: 20134

The following extract is from the above publication and is intended to provide some insight into the usefulness of Spatial Measures in Targeting Need. It also usefully make reference to the limits of the application of Multiple Deprivation Measures in Rural Areas. The more relevant sections have been bolded.

Stats_01.indd 15 03/06/2015 11:22 Area based targeting has been used extensively throughout the UK for more than half a century and has generated advocates for and against for almost as long. More recent reviewers have suggested this polarisation is unnecessary and there is an increased recognition that whilst most poverty eradication should be through universal macroeconomic and social policies, area-based interventions may constitute a useful adjunct to these broader programmes.

This recognition however, shifts the arguments including how these areas should be defined and the policies assessed. Amongst the calls for more considered theories of agency, better specified objectives and more sophisticated analytic tools, it is evident that one of the most common and overarching themes for most Area Based Initiatives is that area-based targeting can be an effective way of reaching poor people. This suggests that at a fundamental level most area-based policies can be assessed according to their efficiency and effectiveness of reaching those most in need. This has been one of the guiding principles of the current study.

The literature suggests that the spatial unit at which deprivation is identified and measured influences the efficiency of targeting. Most targeting in the UK is currently at Census-based Super Output Area level, but this study also examined aggregates of smaller census-based areas (Census Output Areas) as they are likely to be more homogenous, and also larger areas (District Councils) which might prove easier for policy implementation. The conclusions were that targeting using those District Councils with the greatest concentration of disadvantage would be more inefficient than the current SOA-based approach as most of their populations are not disadvantaged and also that most disadvantaged people do not live in these areas. The study confirms that COAs are more homogenous and do offer an advantage over SOAs in terms of concentration and completeness of targeting but the distinction between the two is not marked. Whether COAs are a practical level upon which to base an area-based intervention is beyond the remit of this study.

• The following conclusions can be drawn about the different measures of deprivation: Each of the indicators studied in this report identifies areas where there are high concentrations of disadvantage, and there is a reasonable agreement between the measures on where these areas are. However, there are also some differences in the areas that each indicator selects which will have implications for the allocation of funding. Furthermore, as different indicators detect some types of disadvantage better than others this suggests that the choice of indicator could be selected or tailored to better meet the focus of a specific intervention

• In general the Multiple Deprivation Measure at COA level was more closely related to the basket of demographic, socio-economic and health measures than the other measures studied, though the overall differences between the measures of deprivation studied were modest. It also performed better in terms of both concentration and completeness. The MDM at SOA and the MDM Income Domain at SOA demonstrated the next best fit.

4 The Use of Spatial Targeting for the Targeting of Need, O’Reilly, Dermot, OFMDFM, 2013.

Stats_01.indd 16 03/06/2015 11:22 Context: Social General Demographic Trends, DCSDC, NI, Donegal

The population of the new Council Area DCSDC in 2015 is estimated at 149,224. The forecast population growth rate is 0.7% in DCC and in SDC 1.3% giving a combined rate of 0.9%. NISRA’s 2012 projections show a population of 150,495 by 2025. Comparative analysis of these rates from the 2002 NISRA population projections show that the growth rate has decelerated significantly during the last decade from 4.7%. This projection has now fallen to 0.5% in the next 10 years. Thus whereas a decade ago the area had one of the youngest populations in these islands of under 25s we are now ranked 4th youngest of the 11 Councils in NI. Given the difficulties in recording accurately migration patterns within a LGD, especially in a border region where extensive inward and outward commuting takes place and where many families live in one jurisdiction, work in another and access services in both then attention turns to robust indicators such as birth rates and death rates.

GraphGraph 1 :1: Birth Birth Rate Rate per 1,000per 1,000female femalepopulation population aged 15-44 aged years, 15-44 2003-05 years, to 2003- 201105 to-13 2011-13 (broken (brokenaxis) axis)

Source: NISRA, Vital Statistics Source: NISRA, Vital Statistics

Analysis presented in Graph 1shows that the birth rate is relatively constant since 2009 although there is a differential between the Derry and Strabane rates. In demographic terms a replacement ratio in excess of 2.1 indicates a growing population which is the case in Derry and Strabane (Graph 2). Since the rate of growth of the population is slowing then this might suggest the death rate is increasing but as Graph 3 shows this is not the case.

Stats_01.indd 17 03/06/2015 11:22 GraphGraph 2: Total 2: Total Period Period Fertility Fertility Rate,Rate, 2003 2003-05-05 to 2011 to- 2011-1313

Source: NISRA, Vital Statistics Source: NISRA, Vital Statistics Graph 3: Crude death rate per 1,000 population, 2008-2013 Graph 3: Crude death rate per 1,000 population, 2008-2013

Source: NISRA, Vital Statistics Source: NISRA, Vital Statistics Overall, the conclusion would be that the difference in rate of population growth is

accounted for not by births or deaths but outward migration. The 2015 DCSDC population pyramid overleaf is presented along with the 2037 population pyramid (Graphs 4 and 5). Graphically it illustrates an ageing population with a broadening of the shoulders of the pyramid. The accompanying table 2 shows the consequences of such a scenario for the DCSDC population. Within slightly more than two decades there will be 1,559 fewer in the population, 5,440 fewer under 19s and 12,109 more over 70.

Stats_01.indd 18 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 4: Population Pyramid - Derry City and Strabane District Council, 2015 Graph 4: Population Pyramid - Derry City and Strabane District Council, 2015

AGE GROUP

% OF POPULATION Source: NISRA, Population projections Source: NISRA, Population projections

Graph 5: Population Pyramid - Derry City and Strabane District Council, 2037 Graph 5: Population Pyramid - Derry City and Strabane District Council,2037

AGE GROUP

% OF POPULATION Source: NISRA, Population projections Source: NISRA, Population projections

Stats_01.indd 19 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 2: Change in population structure - Derry City and Strabane District Council, 2015 to 2037

Population Change Age Group 2015 2037 Total %

0-4 10,574 8,482 -2,092 -19.8%

5-9 10,448 8,482 -1,746 -16.7%

10-14 9,447 9,146 -301 -3.2%

15-19 10,683 9,382 -1,301 -12.2%

20-24 9,772 8,536 -1,236 -12.6%

25-29 10,337 8,907 -1,430 -13.8%

30-34 9,964 7,798 -2,166 -21.7%

35-39 9,317 7,964 -1,353 -14.5%

40-44 10,008 8,553 -1,455 -14.5%

45-49 11,059 8,933 -2,126 -19.2%

50-54 10,607 9,083 -2,126 -14.4%

55-59 8,613 8,576 -37 -0.4%

60-64 7,475 8,322 847 11.3%

65-69 6,833 9,085 2,252 33.0%

70-74 5,381 8,651 3,270 60.8%

75-79 3,924 6,805 2,881 73.4%

80-84 2,659 4,847 2,188 82.3%

85 1,437 3,305 1,868 130.0%

90+ 686 2,588 1,902 277.3%

All Ages 149,224 147,665 -1,559 -1.0%

Source: NISRA, Population projections

Stats_01.indd 20 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 6: Derry City and Strabane District Council population projections (breaks in series) 2002-2037 Graph 6: Derry City and Strabane District Council population projections (breaks in series) 2002-2037

Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

These consequences are due, in part, to the lack of employment opportunities locally and the skills mismatch evident in some sectors. Additionally, research evidence on the rate of return of graduates again shows that as participation rates in third level education increase that few of these individuals will return from their host University.

There is a movement towards increased urban living on a worldwide basis leading to rural depopulation and increased pressure upon services. On this basis cities will become the major drivers for economic growth, localities that do not grow will risk being left behind as these trends become embedded within societies. The Centre for Cities has highlighted the need for cities to adapt to this new environment. The One Plan job forecasts were heavily predicated upon the achievement of a critical population mass within Derry~Londonderry with a target population of 130,000 by 2025 (Oxford Economics). Application of this forecast growth rate to the new larger Council area would suggest a total population figure of circa 178,358. However, NISRA 2013 estimates forecast a population by 2025 of circa 150,000.

The graph below illustrates the extent to which there is a forecast differential in population growth rates within NI and the new Council area.

Stats_01.indd 21 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 7: Percentage change in population for Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI, 2013-2037 Graph 7: Percentage change in population for Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI, 2013-2037

Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch In order to achieve the Oxford Economics critical size the new average growth rate

would need to be in the region of an additional 20,000 rather than the 1,876 projected. Consequently, if the population follows the NISRA forecast then by 2030 the new Council area population will have fallen as a proportion of the NI population from 8.1% to 7.7%. This is a function of the differential in growth rates between DCSDC and NI.

Given that the DCSDC area exhibits a young population profile and it is forecast will continue to do so relative to the rest of NI in the short term, then such a result suggests that those who are most likely to have children are migrating out of the area.

The population pyramids presented Graph 4 and 5 illustrates the way in which the composition of the population is changing with a narrowing at the younger age groups and increasing numbers of older people.

The implications for such a scenario are complex, more older people within a declining population i.e. higher dependency ratio, however the numbers moving through into the workforce will be increasing in the medium term, lowering the dependency ratio overall as the birth rate continues to decline. Thus job creation targets will need to be higher to accommodate the larger numbers of working age but this effect may be mitigated by outward migration of those in this age bracket.

More recent evidence supports the view that many of those who migrated to Donegal from Derry are now returning. The NIHE, 2014/15 District Housing Plan notes ‘Local estate agents have also reported an increasing cross-border influence on the Private rented sector in the DCCA. Agents continue to report people returning to Derry from border towns such as Muff, Killea and Bridgend’. The net impact of all of these changes will be hard to estimate accurately.

Stats_01.indd 22 03/06/2015 11:22 Impact of Border Region

The unique nature of the new Council area, which has seen large population movements cross-border during the early to mid to 2000s, means that it is extremely difficult to determine to what extent the rate of population growth has been affected by this migration. Anecdotally, the numbers previously from the DCSDC area who now live in Donegal but commute to NI are claimed to be large with commuter villages in Bridgend, Muff, Burnfoot, Killea, Manorcunningham, Newtowncunningham and Lifford. The economic catchment area of DCSDC extends well into Donegal resulting in many of these individuals working, shopping and being involved in recreational and leisure activities within the adjacent Council area. This cross-border interaction is two-way with many residents from DCSDC employed in Donegal. At times of extreme exchange rate volatility and differing taxation rates both on income and sales6 many consumers and retailers face a high degree of uncertainty regarding real purchasing power of their income and household costs. Donegal’s present population of 161,000 now places it ahead of DCSDC’s 148,000. The Donegal population growth rate between 2011 and 2022/3 according to the Spaceial North West report is 14%, the most recent projections from NISRA show a DCSDC population of 150,647 or growth rate of 1.9% over the same period. The population projections for Donegal mean that by 2023 there will be an additional 23,313 persons. Derry will see an increase of 2,800 in the same period.

Table 3: Extract from Table 5.1 Conference Report Spacial North West, 2014

Projected Projected Projected % Growth 2001/2 Pop 2011 Pop Growth Population Population 2001-2011 2022/3 2022/3 2022/3 Donegal 137,575 161,137 17 23,313 184,450 14

Limavady 32,400 33,500 3 1,725 35,225 5

Derry 105,066 107,900 3 8,159 116,059 8

Strabane 38,248 39,800 4 3,118 42,918 8

Magherafelt 39,800 45,000 13 5,958 50,958 13

NWRCBA 353,089 387,337 10 42,271 429,608 11 Northern 1,685,300 1,810,900 7 134,942 1,945,842 8 Ireland ROI 3,917,203 4,588,252 17 786,948 5,375,200 17

Island 5,602,503 6,399,152 14 921,890 7,321,042 14

Source: Republic of Ireland Census 2002 and 2011. Border Regional Planning Guidelines 2010-2022. NI Census 2001 and 2011; Regional Development Strategy NI 2008-2035.

The next section presents commuting data from the NI 2011 and Republic of Ireland 2011 Censuses. 6 The present Tourism related VAT rate in the Republic of Ireland is 9% vis-a-vis 21% in NI.

Stats_01.indd 23 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 8: Cross-border commuters (work or study), 2011 Censuses (RoI and NI) Graph 8: Cross-border commuters (work or study), 2011 Censuses (RoI and NI)

Males

Source: Census 2011 – Ireland and NI, CSO and NISRA Census 2011Source: Ireland Census 2011and – NorthernIreland and NI, Ireland, CSO and June NISRA 2014. Central Statistics Office, NISRA. Transport and travel The age and sex profile of these cross-border commuters and shows that the majority (57 per cent) of commuters travelling from Northern Ireland to Ireland were male, whereas commuters in the opposite direction were mainly female (54 per cent). The age profiles were similar, with the majority in the early working years; the largest cohort travelling to Ireland from Northern Ireland were males aged 25-34, while females in the same age group were the most likely to commute to Northern Ireland from Ireland. Map 26 on Page 61, which shows the origin and destination of cross-border commuters from Ireland to work or study in Northern Ireland, illustrates that the majority of those who commuted to Northern Ireland were resident i the border areas of Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth. Their destinations, corresponding to their places of work or study in Northern Ireland, were mainly concentrated in the Belfast and Derry LGDs, with further clusters in Newry, Armagh, Craigavon, Dungannon, Enniskillen, Omagh, Limavady, Strabane and Coleraine. For the first time, in the 2011 Cross-border commuters (work or study) censuses, the place of work or study for persons who travelled from Ireland to Northern Ireland or from Northern Ireland to Ireland was coded to fine geographic level. A total of 14,800 persons regularly commuted between the jurisdictions for work or study, with 6,500 travelling to Ireland from Northern Ireland and 8,300 travelling in the other direction. Again, while much of the activity is in border areas, the usual residence (or origin) of these commuters was more widely spread across Northern Ireland. The destination of these commuters is concentrated in Dublin, with further clusters in the towns of Letterkenny, Drogheda, Dundalk, Cavan and Monaghan. Proportionally twice as many (0.4 per cent) Northern Ireland residents commuted to Ireland to work or study as commuted from Ireland to Northern Ireland (0.2 per cent). Census 2011

Stats_01.indd 24 03/06/2015 11:22 Some Implications for Community Planning

Within a Community Planning perspective the scenarios outlined above have quite different implications for the area. A continuing population decline, even with a fall in average household size, will impact upon construction. Additionally, demand for retail and other space is unlikely to grow in the absence of the competitive position of the retail offering improving and the uncertainty that the present exchange rate engenders.

There are obvious implications for school numbers and demand for health and other services although this will be to some extent balanced by the aging population (it must be noted that in the medium term it will still be young comparative to the NI average).

Already the population projections up to 2022 of 115,805 within the NIHE plan have been superceded by new data available from NISRA which projects a population of 109,865 by 2022.

Stats_01.indd 25 03/06/2015 11:22 Context: Economic Economy and Society OFMDFM - Impact of Welfare Reform on NI, 2013

In the context of Community Planning one of the key challenges facing NI and the DCSDC area is the reduction in public expenditure. A number of academic studies have been completed which attempt to forecast the overall impact upon NI and at LGD level.

NICVA commissioned a report from The Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research, in October 2013, The Impact of Welfare Reform on NI. It found that Derry and Strabane would face the greatest negative impact. Tables 4 and 5 illustrate the estimated impact of the reforms. It shows that out of over 400 local authorities, Derry ranked second worst with an overall loss per working age adult of £900 per annum followed by Strabane ranked third at £870. This equates to an overall loss of £86m for the new DCSDC area. In tandem with this report OFMDFM had funded the Institute for Fiscal Studies to undertake research on the probable impact of the introduction of Universal Credit7. This found that some groups will suffer disproportionately while others will benefit from the introduction of Welfare Reform. Those most at risk include some older people and those on Disability Living Allowance who have been awarded the Severe Disability Premium. The report also identifies the lack of integration of the rate rebate system and Universal Credit as a risk for those presently entitled to means tested benefits who may in practice fail to take-up their entitlement. In the past this has been the case, particularly for older people, across a range of benefits and entitlements. Evidence of this comes from DSD’s Benefit Uptake scheme which in 2013 alone assisted individuals to access entitlements worth £17m.

Extracts from both reports are presented below which summarise the findings of the research teams. This is followed by a table presenting all of the Multiple Deprivation Domain scores within the DCSDC area at SOA which are mapped. Taken in concert with the studies on Welfare Reform it shows spatially where the likely impacts will be, for example, those areas with large numbers of DLA recipients or older people.

When the present welfare reforms have come into full effect they will take £750m a year out of the Northern Ireland economy. This is equivalent to £650 a year for every adult of working age.

Derry and Strabane are also hit very hard, and generally across Northern Ireland the most deprived areas face the largest losses.

Some households and individuals, notably incapacity and disability claimants, are hit by several different elements of the reforms.

By lowering incomes more than elsewhere, a key effect of the welfare reforms will be to widen the gap in prosperity between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

7 Universal Credit in Northern Ireland; What will its impact be, and what are the challenges?, OFMDFM, March 2013.

Stats_01.indd 26 03/06/2015 11:22 Westminster ministers take the view that the welfare reforms will increase the financial incentives to take up employment and because more people will look for work more people will find work. This assumes, of course, that extra labour supply leads to extra labour demand from employers. Whether labour markets really do work in this way, especially at times of recession or low growth, or in places where the local economy is relatively weak, is a moot point and one that many economists would contest. Some individuals will undoubtedly find work to compensate for the loss of benefit income but whether the overall level of employment will be any higher as a result is questionable. More often than not, they will simply fill vacancies that would have gone to other jobseekers. So the figures in this report do not assume that loss of income from benefits will wholly or in part be replaced by additional income from employment.

p12, NICVA, Report, 2014

Three local government districts are hit hardest by the welfare reforms – Derry and Strabane (in the west) and Belfast. In these three areas the financial loss, averaged across the whole working age population between the ages of 16 and 64, is over £800 a year, with Derry reaching the £900 mark. Belfast is of course Northern Ireland’s largest city by some margin, so here the overall loss of benefit income – nearly £150m a year – is very substantial indeed. In a further 12 districts the financial loss per working age adult is £600 a year or more. By contrast, in North Down the estimated loss per working age adult is only £450 a year – half the level in Derry.

NICVA, Report, 2014

Stats_01.indd 27 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 4: Overall impact of welfare reform on NI by 2014/15, by local government district – Sheffield Hallam estimates

Estimated loss Loss per working age £m p.a. adult £ p.a. Derry 64 900 Strabane 22 870 Belfast 147 840 Limavady 16 730 Moyle 7 690 Omagh 23 690 Newry and Mourne 44 680 Cookstown 16 680 Craigavon 41 670 Coleraine 23 650 Down 29 630 Dungannon 23 610 Ballymoney 12 610 Larne 12 610 Armagh 23 600 Banbridge 17 560 Fermanagh 22 560 Lisburn 42 550 Magherafelt 16 550 Newtownabbey 29 550 Antrim 19 550 Carrickfergus 14 540 Ballymena 21 530 Ards 27 530 Castlereagh 20 460 North Down 23 450

Northern Ireland 750 650

Source:

There is a clear and unambiguous relationship: as a general rule, the more deprived the local government district, the greater the financial hit. p16, NICVA, 2014

Stats_01.indd 28 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 5: Overall impact of welfare reforms by 2014/15 by UK local authority - Sheffield Hallam estimates

Loss per Loss per Top 50 Districts working age Top 50 cont. working age adult £ p.a. adult £ p.a. 1 Blackpool 910 39 St Helens 630 2 Derry 900 40 Down 630 3 Strabane 870 41 Inverclyde 630 4 Belfast 840 42 Barrow in Furness 630 5 Westminster 820 43 Hull 630 6 Knowsley 800 44 Barnsley 630 7 Limavady 730 45 Tameside 620 8 Merthyr Tydfil 720 46 South Tyneside 620 9 Middlesbrough 720 47 Halton 620 10 Hartlepool 710 48 Redcar & Cleveland 620 11 Torbay 700 49 Sunderland 620 12 Liverpool 700 50 Tendring 620 13 Blaenau Gwent 700 14 Neath Port Talbot 700 15 Moyle 690 16 Hastings 690 Bottom 20 Loss per 17 Omagh 690 Districts working age adult £ p.a. 18 Burnley 690 386 Mid Sussex 280 19 Rochdale 680 387 East Hampshire 280 20 Newry and Mourne 680 388 Waverley 280 21 Barking & Dagenham 680 389 Cotswold 270 22 Brent 680 390 Harborough 270 23 Hyndburn 680 391 Horsham 270 24 Cookstown 680 392 Surrey Heath 270 25 Blackburn with Darwen 670 393 Mole Valley 270 26 Thanet 670 394 South Cambridgeshire 270 27 Stoke on Trent 670 395 Winchester 270 28 Rhondda Cynon Taf 670 396 Chiltern 270 29 Hackney 670 397 South Bucks 260 30 Enfield 670 398 Guildford 260 31 Craigavon 670 South 399 260 32 Coleraine 650 Northamptonshire 33 Glasgow 650 400 South Oxfordshire 260 34 Salford 640 401 Rutland 260 35 Caerphilly 640 402 Wokingham 250 36 Oldham 640 403 Cambridge 250 37 Wirral 640 404 Hart 240 38 Haringey 640 405 City of London 180

(1) Except DLA by 2017/18, incapacity benefits and 1% up-rating by 2015/16 Source: Sheffield Hallam estimates based on official data

Stats_01.indd 29 03/06/2015 11:22 Universal Credit in Northern Ireland: what will its impact be, and what are the challenges?8 Executive summary

A major reform to the welfare and tax credit system, integrating six of the seven main means-tested welfare benefits and in-work tax credits for those of working age into a single programme, to be known as Universal Credit, is set to be introduced throughout the UK. This represents a significant simplification of the benefits system as a whole.

Universal Credit will lead to a small reduction in aggregate benefit entitlements in both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole. The total reduction in benefit entitlement as a percentage of income in Northern Ireland is slightly larger than in the UK as a whole. However, because Universal Credit is a simpler scheme, it is anticipated that take-up of means tested support will increase as a result of its introduction, which in practice is likely to lead to higher total expenditure on benefits, despite the small reduction in entitlements.

Although benefit entitlements will fall very slightly overall in both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole, this disguises significant winners and losers from the reform. In Northern Ireland, around 9% of families will gain and 9% of families will lose from the introduction of Universal Credit, ignoring transitional protection. Both of these figures are larger than in the UK as a whole: as Northern Ireland is a relatively low-income part of the UK, more people are entitled to means-tested support, and hence affected by reforms to means-tested benefits.

The main losers from Universal Credit’s introduction will be: low-income couples where one person is aged above the female State Pension Age (SPA) and the other is aged below, who will no longer be entitled to the more generous Pension Credit; families with significant amounts of unearned income or capital, as these are treated more harshly in the Universal Credit means test than in the means tests for tax credits; and those on Disability Living Allowance claiming the severe disability premium in means- tested benefits, which will be abolished when Universal Credit is introduced. As receipt of Disability Living Allowance is higher in Northern Ireland than in the UK as a whole, this partly explains the slightly larger reduction in benefit entitlements in Northern Ireland.

The main winners from the introduction of Universal Credit will be single earner couples with children. This group will gain more from the introduction of Universal Credit in Northern Ireland than in the UK as a whole, mainly because gains are focused on those with lower incomes and incomes are lower on average in Northern Ireland. By increasing support for single-earner couples while reducing support for workless

Stats_01.indd 30 03/06/2015 11:22 families on average, Universal Credit will strengthen the incentive for one member of a couple to do paid work rather than none. Universal Credit also strengthens work incentives for single people without children.

However, because means-tested support is withdrawn more quickly when the second member of a couple enters work under Universal Credit, the reform weakens the incentive for both members of a couple to be in paid work rather than just one. This effect is particularly acute in Northern Ireland, as lower average earnings levels mean that a greater proportion of single-earner couples are entitled to means-tested support, meaning that those not in paid work who have a partner in paid work are more likely to face withdrawal of Universal Credit if they were to enter paid work.

8 Institute for Fiscal Studies, OFMDFM, 2014, R77

By replacing a jumble of overlapping means tests with a single one, Universal Credit will go some way to ensuring overall effective tax rates cannot rise too high. Thus, some those who face the weakest incentives to increase their earnings under the current system will see their incentives strengthened. However, those previously not entitled to means-tested support who will become entitled to Universal Credit (mainly single-earners in couples with children) and those in two-earner couples tend to see weaker incentives to earn more.

Two of the main advantages of Universal Credit, then, are that it simplifies the benefits system and rationalises work incentives. However, these benefits could be undermined by the decision to leave support for local taxes (Council Tax in Great Britain and domestic rates in Northern Ireland) outside Universal Credit. As domestic rates in Northern Ireland are lower on average than Council Tax in Great Britain, support for local taxation is a correspondingly smaller component of the overall benefit system in Northern Ireland, and so this issue is less important in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK. Nevertheless, keeping support for domestic rates separate from Universal Credit will definitely make the overall benefits system more complicated than it could be, and could lead to the reintroduction of the very high overall withdrawal rates that Universal Credit was supposed to eliminate. How much this happens in practice will depend on decisions made by the Northern Ireland Executive surrounding the design of the proposed rate rebate replacement scheme.

The introduction of Universal Credit also raises issues around the administration of rate rebates. Currently, more than 70% of claimants of the rates component of Housing Benefit are ‘passported’ to a full rebate through receipt of other benefits that are being abolished when Universal Credit is introduced. There is no obvious alternative passport in Universal Credit that could be used to identify these people, and if they all had to go through a full means test to receive support, the burden on both claimants and administrators would increase substantially. Ways around this problem include merging the administration of Universal Credit and rate rebates, allowing claimants to claim

Stats_01.indd 31 03/06/2015 11:22 both with the same form, or transferring information on Universal Credit claims to the appropriate authority responsible for the administration for rate rebates so that claimants would not have to submit the same information twice.

Similar issues arise around other non-social security benefits that use a passport based on receipt of other benefits to identify who is eligible. The introduction of Universal Credit offers an opportunity for the Northern Ireland Executive to consider the rationale for providing benefits in kind rather than in cash and, if these benefits should continue to be provided, whether their provision should be means tested or offered universally. For those benefits that it was decided to retain as means-tested benefits in kind, the most obvious solution would be to give these benefits only to families with incomes below a certain threshold. This would, however, create ‘cliff edges’ that would make some people worse off after a pay rise. A longer-term solution would be to allow claimants to choose which benefits in kind they wish to receive, and make a deduction against that claimant’s Universal Credit award which would depend on their income. This would be more administratively complex, but would avoid the ‘cliff edges’ inherent in alternative approaches.

In short, the UK Government and Northern Ireland Executive have taken a welcome big and radical step forward by proposing the introduction of Universal Credit. But many of the advantages it will bring could be undermined by the decision to keep support for local taxes separate from Universal Credit. Decisions to be made by the Northern Ireland Executive around the design of a rate rebate replacement scheme and other non-social security benefits will therefore be crucial in determining the extent to which these benefits are realised.

Stats_01.indd 32 03/06/2015 11:22 DCSDC SOA 2010 Deprivation – Domains and Sub-Domains Ranked Table 6: NI Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 (statistical geographies) 10%

Income Income Multiple Income SOA Deprivation Deprivation Deprivation Domain Affecting Children Affecting Older Measure Rank Rank Rank People Rank Altnagelvin 1 88 73 52 159 Altnagelvin 2 546 439 280 459 Altnagelvin 3 429 500 363 710 Ballynashallog 1 438 360 519 385 Ballynashallog 2 788 744 756 733 Banagher 344 411 481 259 Beechwood 125 110 178 60 Brandywell 44 27 35 29 Carn Hill 1 164 123 181 92 Carn Hill 2 84 56 59 54 Caw 195 173 142 363 Clondermot 1 58 50 77 87 Clondermot 2 610 547 640 508 Claudy 1 364 289 340 145 Claudy 2 401 476 549 419 Creggan Central 1 10 2 2 3 Creggan Central 2 49 25 28 52 Creggan South 37 22 34 20 Crevagh 1 306 217 182 337 Crevagh 2 35 14 9 111 Crevagh 3 132 92 89 71 Culmore 1 603 629 678 570 Culmore 2 39 20 27 37 Culmore 3 147 109 92 55 Culmore 4 149 94 109 23 Culmore 5 760 661 550 760 Ebrington 1 493 440 598 380 Ebrington 2 86 95 86 164 Eglinton 1 584 475 559 440 Eglinton 2 686 558 484 518 Enagh 1 110 105 100 148 Enagh 2 529 513 430 720 Foyle Springs 1 676 567 489 565 Foyle Springs 2 137 119 134 128 Holly Mount 1 283 255 255 323 Holly Mount 2 447 415 417 303 Kilfennan 1 565 575 400 782 Kilfennan 2 475 434 297 680 Lisnagelvin 1 245 218 222 271

Stats_01.indd 33 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 6 (continued)

Income Income Multiple Income SOA Deprivation Deprivation Deprivation Domain Affecting Children Affecting Older Measure Rank Rank Rank People Rank Lisnagelvin 2 339 322 211 579 New Buildings 1 241 329 338 403 New Buildings 2 657 674 637 712 Pennyburn 1 411 324 339 367 Pennyburn 2 669 484 597 538 Rosemount 104 98 99 167 Shantallow East 45 23 18 65 Shantallow West 1 29 17 14 32 Shantallow West 2 25 10 7 8 Shantallow West 3 151 87 87 134 Shantallow West 4 365 226 156 179 Springtown 1 123 93 66 171 Springtown 2 451 410 434 314 Strand 1 28 42 117 61 Strand 2 441 416 356 486 The Diamond 26 37 97 95 Victoria 101 99 103 176 Westland 46 24 55 24 Artigarvan 294 338 388 308 Ballycolman 61 46 67 22 Castlederg 97 86 110 125 Clare 197 312 450 153 Dunnamanagh 170 236 310 114 East 12 9 21 6 Finn 179 174 180 212 Glenderg 126 159 194 108 Newtownstewart 134 153 150 163 North 187 200 215 257 Plumbridge 261 398 497 438 Sion Mills 141 184 213 178 Slievekirk 269 371 422 370 South 1 212 182 159 404 South 2 410 432 496 441 Victoria Bridge 234 252 250 333 West 1 254 212 200 132 West 2 153 147 343 89

Stats_01.indd 34 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 6 (continued) NI Multiple Deprivation Mesaure 2010 (statistical geographies) 10%

Education, Education, Education, Skills and Skills and Skills and Health Training Education, Training Training Proximity Domain Deprivation Domain - Skills and Domain - Domain - to SOA Rank and Post- Training Primary Working Services (18-59/64 Disability Primary Domain School Age Adults Domain years) Domain School Rank Sub- Sub- Rank Rank Sub- Domain Domain Domain Rank Rank Rank Altnagelvin 1 64 143 96 252 88 46 397 Altnagelvin 2 533 370 527 314 509 803 665 Altnagelvin 3 262 329 471 566 323 511 410 Ballynashallog 1 322 380 513 203 817 730 635 Ballynashallog 2 731 644 802 556 876 853 442 Banagher 391 409 489 814 542 239 17 Beechwood 78 116 292 214 394 299 800 Brandywell 40 24 85 61 184 65 764 Carn Hill 1 138 191 239 244 237 267 543 Carn Hill 2 83 73 107 97 188 74 720 Caw 145 204 191 239 104 306 624 Clondermot 1 24 34 213 305 192 188 791 Clondermot 2 442 414 785 623 841 721 595 Claudy 1 290 342 544 634 484 455 212 Claudy 2 365 467 502 716 607 261 76 Creggan Central 1 6 13 75 189 119 26 622 Creggan Central 2 27 46 144 216 287 45 620 Creggan South 34 38 93 133 183 40 563 Crevagh 1 226 502 443 426 453 428 273 Crevagh 2 56 92 56 81 66 49 345 Crevagh 3 125 103 256 170 316 342 398 Culmore 1 441 521 790 579 834 801 250 Culmore 2 42 76 63 72 131 43 598 Culmore 3 218 181 87 51 140 115 477 Culmore 4 140 111 387 274 328 650 297 Culmore 5 752 865 776 593 739 817 269 Ebrington 1 542 533 289 197 173 716 716 Ebrington 2 85 88 188 195 152 253 881 Eglinton 1 521 425 786 815 822 573 296 Eglinton 2 613 618 779 822 689 642 322 Enagh 1 113 117 155 233 271 60 237 Enagh 2 371 647 673 514 672 723 245 Foyle Springs 1 494 603 713 492 831 699 544 Foyle Springs 2 94 82 301 177 372 411 613 Holly Mount 1 245 433 262 609 364 88 141 Holly Mount 2 329 459 519 503 439 569 374 Kilfennan 1 415 438 344 250 269 616 745 Kilfennan 2 394 507 327 256 221 590 626 Lisnagelvin 1 166 170 311 323 235 387 772

Stats_01.indd 35 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 6 (continued) NI Multiple Deprivation Mesaure 2010 (statistical geographies) 10%

Education, Education, Education, Skills and Skills and Skills and Health Training Education, Training Training Proximity Domain Deprivation Domain - Skills and Domain - Domain - to SOA Rank and Post- Training Primary Working Services (18-59/64 Disability Primary Domain School Age Adults Domain years) Domain School Rank Sub- Sub- Rank Rank Sub- Domain Domain Domain Rank Rank Rank Lisnagelvin 2 238 346 170 361 95 377 833 New Buildings 1 149 291 658 284 158 118 351 New Buildings 2 458 660 518 364 802 786 335 Pennyburn 1 397 357 692 380 524 630 660 Pennyburn 2 590 632 363 418 826 765 586 Rosemount 66 118 108 261 352 550 817 Shantallow East 22 60 54 94 156 103 731 Shantallow West 1 55 31 39 88 54 51 577 Shantallow West 2 62 42 136 43 96 28 564 Shantallow West 3 184 219 517 106 159 150 449 Shantallow West 4 385 317 235 264 618 762 348 Springtown 1 118 99 590 107 399 334 502 Springtown 2 278 494 232 330 750 684 478 Strand 1 9 27 366 153 214 421 883 Strand 2 501 464 201 155 418 780 733 The Diamond 14 41 186 186 222 214 853 Victoria 77 121 194 163 172 257 822 Westland 19 74 338 124 217 292 835 Artigarvan 176 337 119 660 420 143 181 Ballycolman 36 44 205 193 148 63 526 Castlederg 57 108 273 355 333 80 270 Clare 169 257 324 760 348 81 23 Dunnamanagh 124 184 41 756 467 84 34 East 7 18 293 68 77 24 551 Finn 106 230 236 496 319 158 140 Glenderg 132 235 222 413 403 86 9 Newtownstewart 92 144 347 507 242 102 201 North 120 185 468 294 313 470 441 Plumbridge 265 368 226 834 574 191 4 Sion Mills 81 132 241 333 324 123 283 Slievekirk 258 349 195 440 297 116 50 South 1 163 221 424 218 185 201 436 South 2 256 358 332 307 527 454 474 Victoria Bridge 157 355 337 466 510 142 98 West 1 175 259 297 298 407 333 468 West 2 76 151 519 417 309 202 561

Stats_01.indd 36 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 6 (continued) NI Multiple Deprivation Mesaure 2010 (statistical geographies) 10%

Living Living Living Env Environment Crime and Crime and Environment Domain - Domain - Disorder Disorder Domain - Crime and Living Env Housing Outdoor Domain - Domain - Housing Disorder SOA Domain Quality Physical Crime Disorder Access Domain Rank Sub- Environment Sub- Sub- Sub- Rank Domain Sub- Domain Domain Domain Rank Domain Rank Rank Rank Rank Altnagelvin 1 422 684 377 238 371 522 211 Altnagelvin 2 662 703 350 595 285 417 170 Altnagelvin 3 681 615 494 508 738 792 625 Ballynashallog 1 459 344 594 358 570 497 654 Ballynashallog 2 879 716 820 684 711 624 803 Banagher 649 226 756 808 807 822 750 Beechwood 98 57 366 131 498 492 475 Brandywell 227 511 200 152 466 451 443 Carn Hill 1 250 755 142 175 220 186 296 Carn Hill 2 193 668 156 106 284 267 328 Caw 466 635 347 339 496 494 462 Clondermot 1 314 620 202 252 192 181 218 Clondermot 2 780 606 605 599 383 413 332 Claudy 1 775 632 568 606 708 718 638 Claudy 2 418 88 762 851 744 784 645 Creggan Central 1 122 171 145 196 562 502 605 Creggan Central 2 285 544 285 166 583 597 533 Creggan South 128 210 241 101 702 722 621 Crevagh 1 524 355 490 537 294 354 230 Crevagh 2 239 756 92 249 139 126 147 Crevagh 3 486 738 270 407 472 490 402 Culmore 1 730 406 704 638 451 443 432 Culmore 2 267 735 120 247 112 125 101 Culmore 3 373 603 220 342 152 200 103 Culmore 4 506 713 218 559 342 353 322 Culmore 5 829 719 636 578 829 871 721 Ebrington 1 153 76 370 257 461 525 347 Ebrington 2 21 79 33 86 35 34 53 Eglinton 1 852 575 794 658 582 521 653 Eglinton 2 869 708 772 647 754 715 760 Enagh 1 403 641 290 302 328 396 254 Enagh 2 495 573 217 669 411 439 361 Foyle Springs 1 821 736 553 627 762 730 758 Foyle Springs 2 307 283 362 296 510 486 511 Holly Mount 1 691 447 512 705 622 645 561 Holly Mount 2 582 613 280 671 397 428 348 Kilfennan 1 769 723 475 617 703 698 656 Kilfennan 2 592 707 423 394 221 427 346 Lisnagelvin 1 659 696 403 514 235 566 359

Stats_01.indd 37 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 6 (continued) NI Multiple Deprivation Mesaure 2010 (statistical geographies) 10%

Living Living Living Env Environment Crime and Crime and Environment Domain - Domain - Disorder Disorder Domain - Crime and Living Env Housing Outdoor Domain - Domain - Housing Disorder SOA Domain Quality Physical Crime Disorder Access Domain Rank Sub- Environment Sub- Sub- Sub- Rank Domain Sub- Domain Domain Domain Rank Domain Rank Rank Rank Rank Lisnagelvin 2 461 578 330 387 443 465 386 New Buildings 1 501 688 375 334 647 664 597 New Buildings 2 861 674 812 607 575 583 539 Pennyburn 1 271 175 399 330 260 233 331 Pennyburn 2 611 328 674 567 535 398 766 Rosemount 18 16 114 87 173 177 164 Shantallow East 349 751 219 240 390 338 471 Shantallow West 1 219 763 87 205 91 56 210 Shantallow West 2 181 773 68 177 94 94 108 Shantallow West 3 454 667 278 376 230 253 220 Shantallow West 4 588 697 297 563 430 381 491 Springtown 1 366 743 165 346 290 290 303 Springtown 2 814 722 538 639 327 306 372 Strand 1 61 148 90 97 19 16 36 Strand 2 59 5 808 126 253 232 321 The Diamond 13 49 30 73 12 15 16 Victoria 85 98 162 150 105 77 173 Westland 45 41 214 76 368 326 428 Artigarvan 834 409 828 797 722 744 640 Ballycolman 365 496 458 188 591 646 493 Castlederg 727 482 782 480 467 424 486 Clare 639 194 815 845 819 783 822 Dunnamanagh 630 188 880 778 845 837 820 East 333 531 354 190 237 259 221 Finn 843 492 778 739 679 690 631 Glenderg 508 156 738 748 806 790 792 Newtownstewart 660 423 588 583 322 384 257 North 416 334 438 411 147 143 139 Plumbridge 468 99 843 856 856 870 805 Sion Mills 559 376 608 464 313 377 251 Slievekirk 695 311 659 796 731 701 727 South 1 677 698 502 433 615 704 482 South 2 851 717 751 552 610 736 446 Victoria Bridge 712 265 818 794 676 780 517 West 1 761 742 557 499 413 557 252 West 2 394 425 410 305 308 519 149

Stats_01.indd 38 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 7: NI Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 (statistical geographies) (20%)

Stats_01.indd 39 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 7 (continued)

Stats_01.indd 40 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 7 (continued)

Stats_01.indd 41 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 7 (continued)

Education, Education, Education, Skills and Skills and Skills and Health Training Education, Training Training Proximity Domain Deprivation Domain - Skills and Domain - Domain - to SOA Rank and Post- Training Primary Working Services (18-59/64 Disability Primary Domain School Age Adults Domain years) Domain School Rank Sub- Sub- Rank Rank Sub- Domain Domain Domain Rank Rank Rank Lisnagelvin 2 238 346 223 361 95 377 833 New Buildings 1 149 291 170 284 158 118 351 New Buildings 2 458 660 658 364 802 786 335 Pennyburn 1 397 357 518 380 524 630 660 Pennyburn 2 590 632 692 418 826 765 586 Rosemount 66 118 363 261 352 550 817 Shantallow East 22 60 108 94 156 103 731 Shantallow West 1 55 31 54 88 54 51 577 Shantallow West 2 62 42 39 43 96 28 564 Shantallow West 3 184 219 136 106 159 150 449 Shantallow West 4 385 317 517 264 618 762 348 Springtown 1 118 99 235 107 399 334 502 Springtown 2 278 494 590 330 750 684 478 Strand 1 9 27 232 153 214 421 883 Strand 2 501 464 366 155 418 780 733 The Diamond 14 41 201 186 222 214 853 Victoria 77 121 186 163 172 257 822 Westland 19 74 194 124 217 292 835 Artigarvan 176 337 338 660 420 143 181 Ballycolman 36 44 119 193 148 63 526 Castlederg 57 108 205 355 333 80 270 Clare 169 257 273 760 348 81 23 Dunnamanagh 124 184 324 756 467 84 34 East 7 18 41 68 77 24 551 Finn 106 230 293 496 319 158 140 Glenderg 132 235 236 413 403 86 9 Newtownstewart 92 144 222 507 242 102 201 North 120 185 347 294 313 470 441 Plumbridge 265 368 468 834 574 191 4 Sion Mills 81 132 226 333 324 123 283 Slievekirk 258 349 241 440 297 116 50 South 1 163 221 195 218 185 201 436 South 2 256 358 424 307 527 454 474 Victoria Bridge 157 355 332 466 510 142 98 West 1 175 259 337 298 407 333 468 West 2 76 151 297 417 309 202 561

Stats_01.indd 42 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 7 (continued)

Stats_01.indd 43 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 7 (continued)

Living Living Living Env Environment Crime and Crime and Environment Domain - Domain - Disorder Disorder Domain - Crime and Living Env Housing Outdoor Domain - Domain - Housing Disorder SOA Domain Quality Physical Crime Disorder Access Domain Rank Sub- Environment Sub- Sub- Sub- Rank Domain Sub- Domain Domain Domain Rank Domain Rank Rank Rank Rank Lisnagelvin 2 461 578 330 387 443 465 386 New Buildings 1 501 688 375 334 647 664 597 New Buildings 2 861 674 812 607 575 583 539 Pennyburn 1 271 175 399 330 260 233 331 Pennyburn 2 611 328 674 567 535 398 766 Rosemount 18 16 114 87 173 177 164 Shantallow East 349 751 219 240 390 338 471 Shantallow West 1 219 763 87 205 91 56 210 Shantallow West 2 181 773 68 177 94 94 108 Shantallow West 3 454 667 278 376 230 253 220 Shantallow West 4 588 697 297 563 430 381 491 Springtown 1 366 743 165 346 290 290 303 Springtown 2 814 722 538 639 327 306 372 Strand 1 61 148 90 97 19 16 36 Strand 2 59 5 808 126 253 232 321 The Diamond 13 49 30 73 12 15 16 Victoria 85 98 162 150 105 77 173 Westland 45 41 214 76 368 326 428 Artigarvan 834 409 828 797 722 744 640 Ballycolman 365 496 458 188 591 646 493 Castlederg 727 482 782 480 467 424 486 Clare 639 194 815 845 819 783 822 Dunnamanagh 630 188 880 778 845 837 820 East 333 531 354 190 237 259 221 Finn 843 492 778 739 679 690 631 Glenderg 508 156 738 748 806 790 792 Newtownstewart 660 423 588 583 322 384 257 North 416 334 438 411 147 143 139 Plumbridge 468 99 843 856 856 870 805 Sion Mills 559 376 608 464 313 377 251 Slievekirk 695 311 659 796 731 701 727 South 1 677 698 502 433 615 704 482 South 2 851 717 751 552 610 736 446 Victoria Bridge 712 265 818 794 676 780 517 West 1 761 742 557 499 413 557 252 West 2 394 425 410 305 308 519 149

Stats_01.indd 44 03/06/2015 11:22 Multiple Deprivation Measures for DCSDC (2010)

Tables 6 and 7 list in alphabetical order the 75 Super Output Areas (SOA) that comprise the Derry and Strabane District Council Area. Within NI there are 890 SOAs resultant in the top 10% (worst) rank order breakpoint in NI at 89/890 and correspondingly the 20% breakpoint at 178/890. Thus the ranks in Tables 6 and 7 relate to their ranking within NI rather than where they are placed within DCSDC9.

The worst 10% SOAs and 20% for each Domain and Sub-Domain10 are colour coded for easy identification 10% in red and 20% in yellow.

It is worth noting that the SOAs range in population size from 795 in Ebrington 1 to 3,504 in Banagher. Across NI the average size of an SOA is 2,000 people.

The SOAs are ranked across the seven components of the Multiple-Deprivation Measures updated by NISRA in 2010.

These 7 domains and 8 sub-domains and three measures are as follows:

1. Multiple Deprivation Measure (MDM) 2. Income 3. Income Deprivation Affecting Children (IDAC Measure) 4. Income Deprivation Affecting older People (IDAOP Measure) 5. Employment 6. Health Deprivation and Disability 7. Education Skills and Training 8. Education and Skills and Training – Primary 9. Education and Skills and Training – Post-Primary 10. Education and Skills and Training – Working Age Adults 11. Proximity to Services 12. Living Environment 13. Living Environment Housing Quality 14. Living Environment Housing Access 15. Living Environment Outdoor Physical Environment 16. Crime and Disorder 17. Crime and Disorder- Crime 18. Crime and Disorder - Disorder

9 While this is the case it is useful to note that this method or presentation does not affect the ordering within the DCSDC area i.e. the highest MDM or ranked Domain in DCSDC remains the highest regardless.

10 Sub-Domains are essentially sub-sets of the overall Domain and thus more specific. Within the Education Skills and Training Domain – the Working Age Adults sub-domain simply presents those 24-59 with no or low qualifications.

Stats_01.indd 45 03/06/2015 11:22 The underlying administrative data sets relate to the years 2005-2009 although Census 2005 data was applied where no newer information existed. Urban and Rural11 SOAs are included within the table.

An additional 11 Sub-Domains are presented ranging from Income Deprivation affecting Children through to Education, Skills and Training Working Age Adults. This is useful in assisting analysis on specific areas e.g. skills levels of those aged 25-59 across the area.

Visual inspection of the 75 Super Output Areas by Domains, Sub-Domain and Measures illustrates the extent to which clusters of deprivation exist across the DCSDC area. Where there is widespread deprivation then this is reflected across the Domains by the presence of the red colour coding. As noted earlier in the report (table 1) there is a very strong correlation between Income, Employment, Education and Health. Thus as might be expected, in general, those SOAs which rank highly do so across the range of measures.

In reviewing the table it is evident that Creggan Central 1, Brandywell, Shantallow West 2, Culmore 2, Crevagh 2 and East figure highly across the measures. Turning to the 20% level Caw, Crevagh 3, Enagh 1, Glenderg, Castlederg , Newtonstewart, Sion Mills and West 2 are highlighted as ranking highly. The majority of these areas would be known to suffer from high levels of deprivation.

Some areas which are known to have low levels of employment, income and poor health outcomes are not contained within the 10% or 20% levels. This is reflective of the geography chosen and more detailed analysis using Output Area datasets is useful in identifying deep pockets of deprivation at small area level which are subsumed within an SOA. This can result from boundary anomalies where SOAs, while smaller than wards, are not uniform in nature e.g. contain affluent households adjacent to deprived households12. Analysis using Output Areas generates a number of additional areas of interest – these include13 within Donemana, Enagh, North, Rosemount, Caw, Culmore 4, Newtonstewart, Victoria, West 2. It is particularly useful in identifying pockets of rural deprivation.

11 There is substantial research suggesting that Multiple Deprivation Measures, however constructed, are not entirely suitable for the identification of deprivation in Rural areas. (See O’Reilly, OFMDFM, 2013). This data is presented with this caveat in mind. Later within this report Rural SOAs are presented on their own to assist in identification of areas of need within the DCDCA. In this case they comprise Rural SOAs within DCSDC which fall within the worst 20 Rural SOAs in NI.

12 Technically the areas are not homogenous in nature i.e. do not share the same characteristics.

13 List not exhaustive but indicative of areas included at OA level.

Stats_01.indd 46 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 8: Output areas (OAs) located in Derry City and Strabane District Council that fall within 20% most deprived OAs in NI but which do not reside with respective deciles of most deprived super output areas in NI

Rank of Multiple Decile of OA Decile of SOA SOA Name OA CODE LGD Name Deprivation OA deprivation deprivation Measure Score Beechwood 95MM040007 Derry 441 10% 20% Beechwood 95MM040001 Derry 476 10% 20% Beechwood 95MM040005 Derry 497 10% 20% Castlederg 95ZZ030005 39,800 474 10% 20% Caw 95MM070005 Derry 317 10% 30% Caw 95MM070004 Derry 379 10% 30% Crevagh 1 95MM120003 Derry 431 10% 40% Crevagh 3 95MM120007 Derry 487 10% 20% Culmore 4 95MM130012 Derry 53 10% 20% Donemana 95ZZ050002 Strabane 257 10% 20% Enagh 1 95MM160004 Derry 290 10% 20% Enagh 1 95MM160005 Derry 501 10% 20% Finn 95ZZ070006 Strabane 416 10% 30% Foyle Springs 2 95MM170007 Derry 263 10% 20% Glenderg 95ZZ080003 Strabane 432 10% 20% Lisnagelvin 1 95MM200009 Derry 498 10% 30% Newtownstewart 95ZZ090006 Strabane 346 10% 20% Newtownstewart 95ZZ090005 Strabane 391 10% 20% North 95ZZ100003 Strabane 204 10% 30% Rosemount 95MM230003 Derry 322 10% 20% Rosemount 95MM230007 Derry 369 10% 20% Springtown 1 95MM260001 Derry 292 10% 20% Springtown 1 95MM260009 Derry 412 10% 20% Victoria 95MM290001 Derry 158 10% 20% Victoria 95MM290003 Derry 471 10% 20% Victoria 95MM290008 Derry 471 10% 20% West 2 95ZZ160008 Strabane 205 10% 20% West 2 95ZZ160004 Strabane 323 10% 20% Altnagelvin 3 95MM010003 Derry 872 20% 50% Caw 95MM070003 Derry 556 20% 30% Clare 95ZZ040002 Strabane 570 20% 30% Clare 95ZZ040004 Strabane 848 20% 30% Ebrington 1 95MM140004 Derry 1001 20% 60% Holly Mount 1 95MM180006 Derry 675 20% 40% Lisnagelvin 1 95MM200008 Derry 666 20% 30% North 95ZZ100004 Strabane 847 20% 30% Slievekirk 95ZZ130001 Strabane 787 20% 40% South 1 95ZZ140008 Strabane 734 20% 30% South 1 95ZZ140002 Strabane 849 20% 30% Victoria Bridge 95ZZ150005 Strabane 917 20% 30%

5022 OAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 5022 least deprived Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

Stats_01.indd 47 03/06/2015 11:22 Turning again to Super Output Data in terms of range the lowest SOA falls within the worst 1% in NI (MDM) while the best lies within the highest 12% in NI. Within the MDM composite measure 18 of the 75 SOAs within DCSDC fall into the worst 10%. This equates to 30,925 individuals or 20.8% of the Council population.

Examining the MDM at the 20% level identifies an additional 17 SOAs which comprise 36,935 of the population. Overall then 45.6% of the population are resident in those SOAs defined as deprived (10% and 20% level).

The majority of the SOAs that rank worst in terms of the 10% MDM are urban in nature whilst more SOAs from the rural area are evident at the 20% level.

Table 9 highlights the extent to which SOAs have moved in rank order between 2005 and 2010 within the MDM14. As this is a relative measure with respect to the rest of NI then changes (rises or falls) can be due to a range of things including local impacts e.g. new housing developments, closure or opening of firms which have a localised workforce – the drop in the employment domain in Sion Mills (-67), (-83) in West 1 or +220 in Strand 2 may reflect this or one off differential dis/improvements between DCSDC and the rest of NI.

14 The factors underlying the move from 161 to 438 for Ballynashallog 1 are unknown as yet.

Stats_01.indd 48 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 9: Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2005 & 2010

Multiple Deprivation Multiple Deprivation Change in position SOA Name Measure Rank (2005) Measure Rank (2010) Altnagelvin 1 70 88 18 Altnagelvin 2 647 546 -101 Altnagelvin 3 466 429 -37 Ballynashallog 1 161 438 277 Ballynashallog 2 637 788 151 Banagher 312 344 32 Beechwood 83 125 42 Brandywell 16 44 28 Carn Hill 1 139 164 25 Carn Hill 2 68 84 16 Caw 230 195 -35 Clondermot 1 67 58 -9 Clondermot 2 549 610 61 Claudy 1 374 364 -10 Claudy 2 335 401 66 Creggan Central 1 11 10 -1 Creggan Central 2 55 49 -6 Creggan South 35 37 2 Crevagh 1 225 306 81 Crevagh 2 25 35 10 Crevagh 3 174 132 -42 Culmore 1 530 603 73 Culmore 2 52 39 -13 Culmore 3 155 147 -8 Culmore 4 404 149 -255 Culmore 5 722 760 38 Ebrington 1 441 493 52 Ebrington 2 80 86 6 Eglinton 1 510 584 74 Eglinton 2 603 686 83 Enagh 1 (Derry LGD) 96 110 14 Enagh 2 (Derry LGD) 481 529 48 Foyle Springs 1 547 676 129 Foyle Springs 2 122 137 15 Holly Mount 1 209 283 74 Holly Mount 2 403 447 44 Kilfennan 1 654 565 -89

Stats_01.indd 49 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 9 continued Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

Multiple Deprivation Multiple Deprivation Change in position SOA Name Measure Rank (2005) Measure Rank (2010) Kilfennan 2 592 475 -117 Lisnagelvin 1 301 245 -56 Lisnagelvin 2 463 339 -124 New Buildings 1 202 241 39 New Buildings 2 643 657 14 Pennyburn 1 340 411 71 Pennyburn 2 551 669 118 Rosemount 111 104 -7 Shantallow East 53 45 -8 Shantallow West 1 32 29 -3 Shantallow West 2 24 25 1 Shantallow West 3 171 151 -20 Shantallow West 4 470 365 -105 Springtown 1 143 123 -20 Springtown 2 320 451 131 Strand 1 (Derry LGD) 30 28 -2 Strand 2 (Derry LGD) 221 441 220 The Diamond 36 26 -10 Victoria (Derry LGD) 89 101 12 Westland 46 46 0 Artigarvan 268 294 26 Ballycolman 71 61 -10 Castlederg 95 97 2 Clare 140 197 57 Dunnamanagh 168 170 2 East 26 12 -14 Finn 153 179 26 Glenderg 79 126 47 Newtownstewart 110 134 24 North 214 187 -27 Plumbridge 188 261 73 Sion Mills 208 141 -67 Slievekirk 220 269 49 South 1 149 212 63 South 2 396 410 14 Victoria Bridge 233 234 1 West 1 337 254 -83 West 2 126 153 27

Stats_01.indd 50 03/06/2015 11:22 Community Planning Theme 1: Social 1.1: Health

KEY INDICATOR: THEMATIC HEALTH EXAMPLE

1. Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 – Health Domain 2. Standardised Death Rate - All Age All Cause Mortality (AAACM) 3. Standardised Admission Rate (SAR) – All 4. Emergency Care Waiting Time Statistics 5. Emergency Response Times 6. Limiting Long Term Illness (LLTI) 7. Childhood Obesity 8. Cancer Incidence Rate 9. Standardised Admission Rate – Self Harm 10. Standardised Prescription Rate – Mood and Anxiety 11. Teenage Births 12. Disability Living Allowance – 65+ 13. Drinking Prevalence 14. Drug Use Prevalence 15. Physical Activity 16. Smoking Cessation 17. Prescriptions antidepressant drugs 18. Young Persons Behaviour – Smoking 19. Young Persons Behaviour – Alcohol 20. Alcohol Related Deaths 21. Deaths due to Obesity

Stats_01.indd 51 03/06/2015 11:22 NI Multiple Deprivation Rank

Map 2: NI Multiple Deprivation Rank (NIMDM)

Derry City and Strabane District Council

Derry Strabane

Please see over for full list of related SOAs.

Stats_01.indd 52 03/06/2015 11:22 SOA HDD Rank NIMDM Rank Creggan Central 1 13 10 East 18 12 Brandywell 24 44 Strand 1 27 28 Shantallow West 1 31 29 Clondermot 1 34 58 Creggan South 38 37 The Diamond 41 26 Shantallow West 2 42 25 Ballycolman 44 61 Creggan Central 2 46 49 Shantallow East 60 45 Carn Hill 2 73 84 Westland 74 46 Culmore 2 76 39 Foyle Springs 2 82 137 Ebrington 2 88 86 Crevagh 2 92 35 Springtown 1 99 123 Crevagh 3 103 132 Castlederg 108 97 Culmore 4 111 149 Beechwood 116 125 Enagh 1 117 110 Rosemount 118 104 Victoria 121 101 Sion Mills 132 141 Altnagelvin 1 143 88 Newtownstewart 144 134 West 2 151 153 Lisnagelvin 1 170 245

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

Stats_01.indd 53 03/06/2015 11:22 Theme 1:

1. Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 – Health Domain LGD

2. Standardised Death Rate - All age all cause mortality.

Standardised Death Rate - All Age All Cause Mortality (Deaths per 100,000 population) 2004-08 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2008-12 Most Deprived 1,498 1,465 1,464 1,409 1,371 Derry & Strabane LGD 1,296 1,277 1,250 1,210 1,175 Northern Ireland 1,181 1,158 1,139 1,111 1,090 Gap: Most Deprived/LGD 16% 15% 17% 16% 17% Gap: LGD/NI 10% 10% 10% 9% 8%

3. Standardised Admission Rate Standardised Admission Rate - All (Admissions per 100,000 population)

2004-08 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2008-12 Most Deprived 44,173 41,539 41,298 45,384 45,087 Derry & Strabane LGD 39,018 35,757 36,252 39,427 39,805 Northern Ireland 36,959 35,328 35,364 36,717 36,963 Gap: Most Deprived/LGD 13% 16% 14% 15% 13% Gap: LGD/NI 6% 1% 3% 7% 8%

Standardised Admission Rate - Emergency (Admissions per 100,000 population)

2004-08 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2008-12 Most Deprived 14,244 13,477 13,805 14,395 14,085 Derry & Strabane LGD 10,631 10,314 10,338 10,882 11,165 Northern Ireland 9,379 9,211 9,097 8,994 9,277 Gap: Most Deprived/LGD 34% 31% 34% 32% 26% Gap: LGD/NI 13% 12% 14% 21% 20%

Stats_01.indd 54 03/06/2015 11:22 4. Emergency Care Waiting Time Statistics

Emergency Care Waiting Times at Emergency Care Departments (As percentage of ministerial target)

Percentage Under 4 Hour Total Attendances Emergency Care (New & Unplanned Reviews) Department April March April April March April 2014 2015 2015 P 2014 2015 2015 P Altnagelvin Area 72.9% 67.6% 66.8% 4,628 4,775 4,828 Total Type 1 (NI) 72.6% 69.7% 70.1% 49,499 52,038 51,000

5. Emergency Response Times

Summary of Emergency Calls & Response by Local Commissioning Group (2013/14)

Local Commissioning Group Northern Performance Measure South Ireland Belfast Northern Southern Western Eastern Total number of emergency calls 39,290 35,601 27,387 27,376 25,101 154,755 Number of calls where following the arrival of an emergency response no 1,656 774 1,026 507 294 4,257 ambulance is required Percentage of Category A calls responded to 81.1% 59.9% 62.3% 62.7% 66.6% 67.6% within 8 minutes Percentage of Category B calls responded to 83.7% 82.4% 76.1% 79.4% 83.3% 81.2% within 21 minutes Percentage of Category C calls responded to 72.7% 76.0% 69.6% 75.1% 79.2% 74.2% within 21 minutes

Source: KA34 Departmental Return

6. Limiting Long Term Illness (LLTI) Limiting Long Term Illness

Derry and Strabane Northern Ireland Number % % No long-term condition 98,819 66.9% 68.6% Have a long-term condition 48,901 33.1% 31.4%

Stats_01.indd 55 03/06/2015 11:22 Type of long-term condition

Derry and Strabane Northern Ireland Condition type Number % %

Deafness or partial hearing loss 6886 14.1% 16.4%

Blindness or partial sight loss 2636 5.4% 5.4%

Communication difficulty 2620 5.4% 5.2%

A mobility or dexterity difficulty 18746 38.3% 36.4% A learning, intellectual, social or behavioural difficulty 3675 7.5% 7.1% An emotional, psychological or mental health condition 11126 22.8% 18.5% Long-term pain or discomfort 16042 32.8% 32.1% Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing 14418 29.5% 27.7% Frequent periods of confusion or memory loss 3189 6.5% 6.3% A chronic illness 9590 19.6% 20.8%

Other condition 8233 16.8% 16.6%

7. Childhood Obesity Limiting Long Term Illness

08/09-10/11 09/10-11/12 10/11-12/13 Most Deprived 6.3% 6.7% 5.7% Derry & Strabane LGD 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% Northern Ireland 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% Gap: Most Deprived/LGD 14% 24% 4% Gap: LGD/NI 7% 3% 6%

8. Cancer Incidence Rate Standardised Incidence Rate - Cancer (Incidence per 100,000 population)

2002-08 2003-09 2004-10 2005-11 2006-12 Most Deprived 618 617 619 618 633 Derry & Strabane LGD 552 557 568 567 578 Northern Ireland 540 549 553 560 567 Gap: Most Deprived/LGD 12% 11% 9% 9% 10% Gap: LGD/NI 7% 2% 3% 1% 2%

Stats_01.indd 56 03/06/2015 11:22 9. Standardised Admission Rate – Self Harm Standardised Admission Rate - Self-harm (Admissions per 100,000 population) 04/05- 05/06- 06/07- 07/08- 08/09- 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 Most Deprived 606 541 511 508 467 Derry & Strabane LGD 300 274 259 260 239 Northern Ireland 251 248 250 250 239 Gap: Most Deprived/LGD 102% 97% 97% 96% 95% Gap: LGD/NI 19% 10% 4% 4% 0%

10. Standardised Prescription Rate for Mood and Anxiety Disorders Standardised Admission Rate - Self-harm (Admissions per 100,000 population)

2009 2010 2011 2012 Most Deprived 294 312 316 327 Derry & Strabane LGD 203 217 223 232 Northern Ireland 168 183 190 199 Gap: Most Deprived/LGD 45% 44% 42% 41% Gap: LGD/NI 21% 19% 17% 16%

11. Teenage Births Teenage Birth Rate (U20) (Births per 1,000 live births)

2008-10 2009-11 2010-12 Most Deprived 29.0 27.3 24.8 Derry & Strabane LGD 16.9 16.2 15.4 Northern Ireland 15.5 14.6 13.8 Gap: Most Deprived/LGD 72% 69% 60% Gap: LGD/NI 9% 10% 12%

12. Disability Living Allowance – 65+ In 2014 there were a total of 21,000 recipients of Disability Living Allowance in the Derry City and Strabane District Council Area. 6,640 of these recipients were aged 65+ and this equates to 32.6% of the total number of recipients in this area. Equivalent Figures for NI are as follows – In 2014 there were a total number of 196,500 recipients of Disability Living Allowance in NI. 61,350 of these recipients were aged 65+ and this equates to 31.2% of the total number of recipients in NI.

Stats_01.indd 57 03/06/2015 11:22 13. Drinking Prevalence Figures on drinking prevalence are taken from the 2012/13 Health Survey produced by DHSSPSNI. 71% of people in the WHSCT drink alcohol regularly whilst 9% drink alcohol occasionally. 6% of people in the WHSCT who were surveyed used to drink alcohol whilst 14% have never drank alcohol. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows – 70% of people in NI drink alcohol regularly whilst 9% drink alcohol occasionally. 6% of people in NI who were surveyed used to drink alcohol whilst 15% have never drank alcohol.

14. Drug Use Prevalence Figures on drug prevalence are taken from drug prevalence survey of households carried out in both Ireland and Northern Ireland. 3.5% of the sample in WHSCT had used a drug within the last month, whilst 6.6% had used a drug in the last year and 21.0% had used a drug within their lifetime. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows - 3.3% of the sample in NI had used a drug within the last month, whilst 6.6% had used a drug in the last year and 27.3% had used a drug within their lifetime.

15. Physical Activity Figures on physical activity are taken from the 2012/13 Health Survey produced by DHSSPSNI. 31% of those in WHSCT do less than 30 minutes of exercise per week, whilst 6% exercise between 30 and 59 minutes per week. 12% exercise between 60 and 149 minutes per week and 51% meet the recommended physical activity levels of at least 150 minutes per week. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows - 28% of those in NI do less than 30 minutes of exercise per week, whilst 5% exercise between 30 and 59 minutes per week. 14% exercise between 60 and 149 minutes per week and 53% meet the recommended physical activity levels of at least 150 minutes per week.

16. Smoking Cessation In 2013 2,403 people successfully quit (self-report) at 4 weeks which equates to 60.6% of those people who set a quit date in the Derry City and Strabane District Council Area. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows – In 2013 15,813 people successfully quit (self-report) at 4 weeks which equates to 58.9% of those people who set quit date in NI.

17. Prescriptions antidepressant drugs The number of anti-depressant drug items dispensed per head of the registered population is 1.29 for the Derry City and Strabane District Council Area. This is the highest number across all of the new 11 supercouncil areas. The cost of drugs dispensed per head of registered population is £6.50 for the Derry City and Strabane District Council Area. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows – the number of antidepressant drug items dispensed per head of the registered population is 1.25 for NI as a whole. The cost of drugs dispensed per head of the registered population is £7.56 for NI as a wholewho set quit date in NI.

Stats_01.indd 58 03/06/2015 11:22 18. Drinking Prevalence This information is taken from The Young Persons Behaviour and Attitudes Survey which was conducted in Autumn 2013. This is a school-based survey conducted among 11-16 year olds and covers a range of topics relevant to the lives of young people today. In 2013 in WHSCT 13.7% of people surveyed stated they had at some point smoked tobacco and of these 20.5% stated they smoked cigarettes every day, 5.1% stated they smoked at least once a week but not very day, 8.0% stated they smoked less than once a week and 66.5% stated they do not smoke now. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows - In 2013 in NI 13.5% of people surveyed stated they had at some point smoked tobacco and of these 20.5% stated they smoked cigarettes every day, 8.6% stated they smoked at least once a week but not very day, 8.6% stated they smoked less than once a week and 62.3% stated they do not smoke now.

19. Young Persons Behaviour – Alcohol This information is taken from The Young Persons Behaviour and Attitudes Survey which was conducted in Autumn 2013. This is a school-based survey conducted among 11-16 year olds and covers a range of topics relevant to the lives of young people today. In 2013 in WHSCT 39.3% of people surveyed stated they had at some point drank and of these 1.0% currently drink alcohol daily, 1.6% currently drink alcohol a few times a week, 17.5% currently drink alcohol a few times a month, 15.7% currently drink alcohol a few times a year, 15.7% rarely drink alcohol and 27.3% no longer drink alcohol. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows - In 2013 in NI 38.2% of people surveyed stated they had at some point drank and of these 0.9% currently drink alcohol daily, 2.7% currently drink alcohol a few times a week, 18.0% currently drink alcohol a few times a month, 14.5% currently drink alcohol a few times a year, 35.3% rarely drink alcohol and 28.6% no longer drink alcohol.

20. Alcohol Related Deaths In 2013 there were 236 alcohol related deaths in NI. Of these 12% (29 deaths) were in Derry City and Strabane District Council area.

21. Deaths due to Obesity. In 2013 there were 64 deaths due to obesity in NI. Of these 5% (3 deaths) were in Derry City and Strabane District Council area.

Stats_01.indd 59 03/06/2015 11:22 Factors that influence people to engage in culture and sport in Northern Ireland 2011: DCAL Research Findings 3/2012

Executive summary

A Respondents in the survey were asked a series of questions about factors that had influenced them and would encourage them to engage in sport and the arts. They were also asked a series of questions on the factors that would make it less likely that they would visit a museum or library. A number of common themes emerged:

• Venues • Cost • Government promotion • Inspiration from elite athletes and artists • Lack of engagement

Venues: Access to venues was an important factor in encouraging or preventing respondents to engage in culture and sport.

Cost: Cost was a factor mentioned that would impact on respondents’ engagement in the arts and museums. Over a third of respondents (36%) said that lower costs of arts activities/performance would encourage them to engage in the arts in the future. An increase in admission cost in museums that are not free was mentioned by 37% of respondents as a factor that would make it less likely for them to attend a museum.

Government promotion: Government promotion of sport and the arts was the reason least likely to influence respondents to engage in sport and the arts. However, a higher percentage of respondents said that government promotion of sport and the arts would encourage them to engage in sport and arts in the future (17% and 19% respectively).

Inspiration from elite athletes and artists: Less than one in ten respondents said that inspiration by successful sports person or successful arts people from Northern Ireland had influenced them to play sport or engage in the arts.

Lack of engagement: A high percentage of respondents said that none of the factors asked would encourage or prevent them from engaging in culture or sport as they have no intention of playing sport (25%), engaging in the arts (19%), attending a museum (17%) or attending a library (21%).

Stats_01.indd 60 03/06/2015 11:22 1.2 Cultural Deprivation Index

The Department of Culture, Arts and Leisure commissioned research on Cultural Deprivation within NI. In response to this request NISRA developed a Cultural Deprivation Index. This was published in February 2014 and a short summary of the results is reproduced below.

The objectives of the study were:

• to produce a cultural deprivation index • to compare the index with the NISRA Multiple Deprivation Measure (MDM); • to use the index to compare engagement rates in culture, arts and leisure in areas that are more culturally deprived with those that are less culturally deprived; and • to use the index to compare the social and economic conditions of areas that are defined as more culturally deprived with those that are less culturally deprived

The four deprivation indices for sport, arts, libraries and museums all show to some extent an urban/rural split, with the most culturally deprived areas tending to be rural and the least deprived areas being urban. This split is also evident in the overall CDI, with no rural SOAs in the 40% culturally least deprived areas and 171 of the 178 SOAs in the most deprived 20% being rural.

Participation in culture, arts and leisure was examined in relation to proximity to facilities using the CDI. For sport, there is no relationship between proximity to facilities and participation. For the arts, attendance at the arts is lower in the most deprived decile of the Arts Deprivation Index than for the other nine deciles collectively. Use of the public library service does increase as the proximity to a library increases, with the most deprived SOAs in the Library Deprivation Index having a lower usage rate than the least deprived SOAs. Similarly, those in the most deprived SOAs for the Museum Deprivation Index are less likely to have visited a museum than those in the least deprived SOAs. Examination of the overall engagement in culture, arts and leisure against the CDI shows no relationship between participation and proximity to facilities.

The CDI highlights the urban and rural differences in the proximity to culture, arts and leisure services. The 20% most deprived areas are generally rural SOAs (171 of the 178 SOAs are rural). In contrast, there are no rural SOAs in the 40% least deprived areas. The most deprived SOA is Belleek and Boa in Fermanagh District Council, while the least deprived is Ebrington 2 in Derry City Council.

Stats_01.indd 61 03/06/2015 11:22 1.3: Sport

Graph 10 shows levels of participation in sport by the Sport Deprivation Index. The areas of deprivation are divided into ten bands (deciles) ranging from those living in the 10% most deprived areas shown in pale blue to those living in the 10% least deprived areas shown in dark blue. The eight bands in between are coloured with deepening shades of blue respectively. The green line shows the average sport participation rate for Northern Ireland.

Graph 10: Levels of participation in sport by the Sport Deprivation Index Graph 10: Levels of participation in sport by the Sport Deprivation Index

60 58 58 56 50 54 54 53 53

50 52 47

30 Percentage

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10% Most 10% Least NI Sport Participation Rate Deprived Deprived

Source:Source: DCALThe Local Cultural Context Deprivation – Economy Index 2014 and Society, OFMDFM Economic Policy Unit, September 2014

Stats_01.indd 62 03/06/2015 11:22 1.4: Volunteering

Detailed Characteristics for Northern Ireland on Housing, Labour Market and Voluntary Work. Census 2011. Sept 2013

Voluntary work and age and sex A new question for the 2011 Census asked respondents aged 16 and over whether they had helped with or carried out any voluntary work in the previous year. Overall, 15% of people aged 16 and over had undertaken voluntary work in the 12 months before Census Day 2011, with females (16%) more likely than males (14%) to have done so. People in the 16 to 24 age group were most likely to have carried out voluntary work (19%), including 22% of females and 16% of males. At 7.1%, however, those aged 75 and over were less likely than other age groups to have done so, including 6.1% of females and 8.6% of males.

Voluntary work and economic activity Usual residents aged 16 and over who were economically active were more likely than those who were economically inactive to have participated in voluntary work in the previous year (17% and 13% respectively). Students were most likely to have carried out voluntary work, including 28% of economically active full-time students and 22% of economically inactive students. Among the economically active, Unemployed people were least likely to have carried out voluntary work (13%), whereas, among the economically inactive, it was people who were Long-term sick or disabled (5.3%).

Stats_01.indd 63 03/06/2015 11:22 Health Deprivation and Disability

Map 1: Deprivation - Health Deprivation and Disability (HDD) Domain Rank

Derry and Strabane District Council - HDD

Derry HDD Strabane HDD

Please see over for full list of related SOAs.

Stats_01.indd 64 03/06/2015 11:22 Please see below for full list of related SOAs.

SOA NIMDM Rank Creggan Central 1 10 East 12 Shantallow West 2 25 The Diamond 26 Strand 1 28 Shantallow West 1 29 Crevagh 2 35 Creggan South 37 Culmore 2 39 Brandywell 44 Shantallow East 45 Westland 46 Creggan Central 2 49 Clondermot 1 58 Ballycolman 61 Carn Hill 2 84 Ebrington 2 86 Altnagelvin 1 88 Castlederg 97 Victoria 101 Rosemount 104 Enagh 1 110 Springtown 1 123 Beechwood 125 Glenderg 126 Crevagh 3 132 Newtownstewart 134 Foyle Springs 2 137 Sion Mills 141 Culmore 3 147 Culmore 4 149 Shantallow West 3 151 West 2 153 890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, Carn Hill 1 164 890 least deprived Donemana 170 Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

Stats_01.indd 65 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data

% of % of SOA DLA Recipients DLA Recipients AA Recipients AA Recipients aged under 65 aged over 65

Altnagelvin 1 250 20% 30 13% Altnagelvin 2 120 7% 30 20% Altnagelvin 3 160 11% 40 18% Artigarvan 320 13% 70 18% Ballycolman 350 23% 50 18% Ballynashallog 1 210 18% 60 14% Ballynashallog 2 130 9% 30 13% Banagher 280 9% 110 27% Beechwood 450 25% 70 17% Brandywell 560 27% 60 17% Carn Hill 1 270 22% 20 10% Carn Hill 2 270 26% 20 10% Castlederg 480 28% 90 21% Caw 410 20% 100 20% Clare 370 17% 90 21% Claudy 1 180 13% 30 15% Claudy 2 190 11% 50 20% Clondermot 1 290 27% 40 20% Clondermot 2 200 15% 80 23% Creggan Central 1 340 24% 20 21% Creggan Central 2 240 21% 10 8% Creggan South 460 23% 60 23% Crevagh 1 250 14% 20 11% Crevagh 2 250 21% 0 0% Crevagh 3 360 15% 20 20% Culmore 1 130 13% 30 20% Culmore 2 260 23% 10 9% Culmore 3 230 16% 10 9% Culmore 4 420 18% 30 12% Culmore 5 110 5% 20 17% Dunnamanagh 290 16% 80 26% East 390 28% 70 23% Ebrington 1 110 21% 60 22% Ebrington 2 280 19% 50 18% Eglinton 1 210 15% 70 19% Eglinton 2 210 9% 60 26% Enagh 1 290 13% 30 15% Enagh 2 270 9% 40 12% Finn 390 15% 50 14% Foyle Springs 1 180 10% 20 12%

Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 66 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data (continued)

% of % of SOA DLA Recipients DLA Recipients AA Recipients AA Recipients aged under 65 aged over 65

Foyle Springs 2 270 17% 50 19% Glenderg 430 19% 80 21% Holly Mount 1 230 11% 40 15% Holly Mount 2 260 9% 30 14% Kilfennan 1 170 14% 50 17% Kilfennan 2 130 10% 10 10% Lisnagelvin 1 310 25% 70 20% Lisnagelvin 2 210 15% 70 19% New Buildings 1 230 16% 30 14% New Buildings 2 150 10% 40 14% Newtownstewart 360 19% 80 21% North 430 15% 80 19% Pennyburn 1 130 13% 50 19% Pennyburn 2 140 15% 60 18% Plumbridge 230 12% 80 23% Rosemount 380 17% 60 18% Shantallow East 510 24% 50 13% Shantallow West 1 250 21% 10 12% Shantallow West 2 250 19% 10 10% Shantallow West 3 240 14% 10 13% Shantallow West 4 250 12% 20 17% Sion Mills 460 24% 70 18% Slievekirk 300 14% 80 23% South 1 220 13% 20 8% South 2 180 16% 30 16% Springtown 1 270 17% 10 8% Springtown 2 190 16% 20 12% Strand 1 410 24% 40 15% Strand 2 150 10% 40 16% The Diamond 460 23% 60 19% Victoria 420 14% 70 20% Victoria Bridge 300 16% 80 22% West 1 210 11% 20 16% West 2 280 27% 60 19% Westland 420 23% 80 22%

Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 67 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data (continued)

Child Benefit % of Child Benefit Claimants - SOA CA Claimants CA Claimants Claimants Number of aged over 16 Children Altnagelvin 1 80 7% 220 365 Altnagelvin 2 40 3% 305 560 Altnagelvin 3 60 4% 225 385 Artigarvan 120 5% 380 715 Ballycolman 140 10% 290 505 Ballynashallog 1 70 5% 145 260 Ballynashallog 2 30 2% 200 340 Banagher 120 5% 490 1005 Beechwood 140 8% 295 490 Brandywell 150 8% 365 645 Carn Hill 1 100 9% 240 440 Carn Hill 2 90 10% 215 365 Castlederg 160 9% 245 435 Caw 110 5% 305 530 Clare 150 7% 315 595 Claudy 1 70 6% 235 445 Claudy 2 70 5% 245 500 Clondermot 1 80 8% 185 320 Clondermot 2 50 4% 155 265 Creggan Central 1 150 15% 345 685 Creggan Central 2 80 8% 220 380 Creggan South 170 10% 375 660 Crevagh 1 90 6% 335 600 Crevagh 2 80 9% 245 445 Crevagh 3 140 8% 510 925 Culmore 1 40 4% 160 295 Culmore 2 90 10% 215 380 Culmore 3 80 7% 255 470 Culmore 4 160 9% 525 1045 Culmore 5 50 3% 400 785 Dunnamanagh 120 7% 285 560 East 130 10% 250 460 Ebrington 1 30 4% 65 125 Ebrington 2 70 5% 260 440 Eglinton 1 70 5% 220 425 Eglinton 2 70 4% 435 840 Enagh 1 120 7% 435 765 Enagh 2 80 3% 490 895 Finn 140 6% 420 790 Foyle Springs 1 60 4% 285 500 Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 68 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data (continued)

Child Benefit % of Child Benefit Claimants - SOA CA Claimants CA Claimants Claimants Number of aged over 16 Children Foyle Springs 2 90 6% 235 390 Glenderg 190 9% 325 675 Holly Mount 1 90 5% 330 610 Holly Mount 2 90 4% 505 945 Kilfennan 1 50 4% 160 275 Kilfennan 2 50 5% 190 345 Lisnagelvin 1 90 7% 235 420 Lisnagelvin 2 60 4% 220 370 New Buildings 1 70 5% 250 435 New Buildings 2 40 3% 210 360 Newtownstewart 120 7% 280 535 North 140 6% 510 960 Pennyburn 1 40 4% 175 305 Pennyburn 2 40 4% 110 190 Plumbridge 80 5% 280 590 Rosemount 120 6% 295 505 Shantallow East 220 11% 425 740 Shantallow West 1 90 10% 245 450 Shantallow West 2 90 9% 255 495 Shantallow West 3 90 7% 400 755 Shantallow West 4 70 5% 425 800 Sion Mills 170 9% 315 550 Slievekirk 100 5% 330 615 South 1 110 8% 275 490 South 2 50 5% 200 340 Springtown 1 90 7% 275 480 Springtown 2 60 5% 175 315 Strand 1 90 5% 150 250 Strand 2 30 2% 125 210 The Diamond 110 6% 305 470 Victoria 130 5% 530 930 Victoria Bridge 120 7% 285 565 West 1 70 5% 355 680 West 2 90 8% 165 285 Westland 140 8% 315 565

Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 69 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data (continued)

Employment % of Employment Children in Children in & Support & Support SOA IS/JSA families: IS/JSA families: Allowance Allowance 0-15 years 0-19 years Claimants Claimants 16-64 Altnagelvin 1 125 145 120 13% Altnagelvin 2 100 115 80 6% Altnagelvin 3 50 55 80 7% Artigarvan 130 155 130 7% Ballycolman 185 230 180 16% Ballynashallog 1 60 70 80 8% Ballynashallog 2 20 25 50 4% Banagher 85 105 150 7% Beechwood 135 155 190 14% Brandywell 310 385 310 20% Carn Hill 1 120 145 110 12% Carn Hill 2 160 185 130 18% Castlederg 145 180 180 14% Caw 165 180 180 11% Clare 85 100 120 7% Claudy 1 85 100 90 9% Claudy 2 45 60 100 8% Clondermot 1 105 115 140 17% Clondermot 2 25 25 80 8% Creggan Central 1 315 400 190 20% Creggan Central 2 140 180 140 16% Creggan South 265 335 230 16% Crevagh 1 155 185 130 10% Crevagh 2 230 265 140 17% Crevagh 3 290 345 190 11% Culmore 1 25 30 60 8% Culmore 2 175 220 130 16% Culmore 3 190 220 130 13% Culmore 4 255 300 170 11% Culmore 5 55 65 50 3% Dunnamanagh 110 130 130 9% East 225 275 190 18% Ebrington 1 25 30 50 12% Ebrington 2 120 135 200 17% Eglinton 1 60 70 90 8% Eglinton 2 90 100 100 6% Enagh 1 190 220 160 10% Enagh 2 105 125 110 5% Finn 155 195 180 10% Foyle Springs 1 40 55 90 7% Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 70 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data (continued)

Employment % of Employment Children in Children in & Support & Support SOA IS/JSA families: IS/JSA families: Allowance Allowance 0-15 years 0-19 years Claimants Claimants 16-64 Foyle Springs 2 95 115 140 12% Glenderg 160 200 170 10% Holly Mount 1 80 95 110 7% Holly Mount 2 105 120 140 7% Kilfennan 1 50 55 70 7% Kilfennan 2 65 80 90 9% Lisnagelvin 1 95 110 130 13% Lisnagelvin 2 90 100 90 9% New Buildings 1 75 95 90 8% New Buildings 2 35 45 60 5% Newtownstewart 135 150 130 9% North 230 260 240 11% Pennyburn 1 70 85 60 8% Pennyburn 2 15 20 50 7% Plumbridge 45 65 90 6% Rosemount 170 210 260 14% Shantallow East 265 340 230 15% Shantallow West 1 205 240 160 19% Shantallow West 2 235 270 140 16% Shantallow West 3 300 365 200 17% Shantallow West 4 195 240 120 8% Sion Mills 150 170 180 13% Slievekirk 100 115 130 8% South 1 110 140 130 11% South 2 45 50 80 9% Springtown 1 205 230 150 13% Springtown 2 30 45 80 8% Strand 1 65 85 300 20% Strand 2 35 45 90 7% The Diamond 150 195 320 19% Victoria 205 250 270 12% Victoria Bridge 100 120 130 9% West 1 145 175 100 8% West 2 70 80 110 14% Westland 245 295 230 17%

Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 71 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data (continued)

% of 16+ Housing Income % of JSA Income JSA SOA Benefit Support Claimants Support Claimants Claimants Claimants 16-64 Claimants Altnagelvin 1 330 100 8% 110 12% Altnagelvin 2 140 40 3% 40 3% Altnagelvin 3 110 40 3% 50 4% Artigarvan 200 70 3% 90 5% Ballycolman 340 110 8% 140 12% Ballynashallog 1 100 50 4% 30 3% Ballynashallog 2 30 10 1% 40 4% Banagher 170 50 2% 90 4% Beechwood 340 100 6% 130 9% Brandywell 740 180 9% 200 13% Carn Hill 1 240 60 5% 70 8% Carn Hill 2 270 80 9% 80 11% Castlederg 380 110 6% 130 10% Caw 490 110 5% 100 6% Clare 150 60 3% 80 5% Claudy 1 170 40 3% 50 5% Claudy 2 60 30 2% 40 3% Clondermot 1 340 100 10% 120 14% Clondermot 2 140 20 1% 50 5% Creggan Central 1 530 210 20% 160 17% Creggan Central 2 250 70 7% 100 11% Creggan South 490 170 10% 210 15% Crevagh 1 250 80 5% 110 9% Crevagh 2 360 110 12% 110 13% Crevagh 3 450 160 9% 140 8% Culmore 1 40 20 2% 30 4% Culmore 2 330 100 11% 90 11% Culmore 3 280 80 7% 100 10% Culmore 4 430 130 7% 110 7% Culmore 5 70 30 2% 40 3% Dunnamanagh 160 70 4% 90 6% East 550 120 9% 190 18% Ebrington 1 140 30 4% 20 5% Ebrington 2 490 100 7% 120 10% Eglinton 1 140 30 2% 50 5% Eglinton 2 140 40 2% 60 4% Enagh 1 370 110 6% 110 7% Enagh 2 200 80 3% 60 3% Finn 280 100 4% 130 7% Foyle Springs 1 60 40 3% 70 5%

Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 72 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 9: DSD Welfare Data (continued)

% of 16+ Housing Income % of JSA Income JSA SOA Benefit Support Claimants Support Claimants Claimants Claimants 16-64 Claimants Foyle Springs 2 320 90 6% 110 9% Glenderg 220 90 4% 90 5% Holly Mount 1 130 60 3% 60 4% Holly Mount 2 180 80 4% 70 3% Kilfennan 1 70 30 2% 40 4% Kilfennan 2 160 30 3% 60 6% Lisnagelvin 1 240 60 5% 70 7% Lisnagelvin 2 170 50 4% 70 7% New Buildings 1 150 60 5% 50 5% New Buildings 2 50 20 1% 40 4% Newtownstewart 330 90 5% 110 8% North 510 140 6% 210 10% Pennyburn 1 100 30 3% 60 8% Pennyburn 2 60 10 1% 30 4% Plumbridge 100 30 2% 50 4% Rosemount 630 120 6% 260 14% Shantallow East 480 190 10% 180 12% Shantallow West 1 320 110 12% 100 12% Shantallow West 2 310 120 12% 80 9% Shantallow West 3 460 140 11% 120 10% Shantallow West 4 320 110 7% 100 7% Sion Mills 320 100 6% 120 8% Slievekirk 160 50 3% 90 6% South 1 230 80 6% 80 7% South 2 90 30 3% 50 6% Springtown 1 270 80 6% 110 9% Springtown 2 40 20 2% 40 4% Strand 1 920 120 7% 420 27% Strand 2 230 40 2% 90 7% The Diamond 770 160 8% 270 16% Victoria 660 150 6% 220 9% Victoria Bridge 140 60 3% 70 5% West 1 210 70 5% 70 6% West 2 200 50 5% 80 10% Westland 520 150 9% 200 15%

Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 73 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 10: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (DLA)

Disability Disability % of those % of those Living Living SOA aged SOA aged Allowance Allowance under 65 under 65 Recipients Recipients Brandywell 560 27% East 390 28% Shantallow East 510 24% Castlederg 480 28% Castlederg 480 28% West 2 280 27% Creggan South 460 23% Brandywell 560 27% The Diamond 460 23% Clondermot 1 290 27% Sion Mills 460 24% Carn Hill 2 270 26% Beechwood 450 25% Beechwood 450 25% Glenderg 430 19% Lisnagelvin 1 310 25% North 430 15% Sion Mills 460 24% Culmore 4 420 18% Creggan Central 1 340 24%

Table 10 cont’: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (AA)

Attendance % of Attendance % of SOA Allowance those aged SOA Allowance those aged Recipients over 65 Recipients over 65 Banagher 110 27% Banagher 110 27% Caw 100 20% Dunnamanagh 80 26% Castlederg 90 21% Eglinton 2 60 26% Clare 90 21% Clondermot 2 80 23% Westland 80 22% East 70 23% Glenderg 80 21% Slievekirk 80 23% Newtownstewart 80 21% Plumbridge 80 23% Victoria Bridge 80 22% Creggan South 60 23% Dunnamanagh 80 26% Westland 80 22% Clondermot 2 80 23% Victoria Bridge 80 22%

Stats_01.indd 74 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 10 cont’: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (CA)

Carers % of Carers % of SOA Allowance those aged SOA Allowance those aged Claimants over 16 Claimants over 16 Shantallow East 220 11% Creggan Central 1 150 15% Glenderg 190 9% Shantallow East 220 11% Creggan South 170 10% Creggan South 170 10% Sion Mills 170 9% Shantallow West 1 90 10% Castlederg 160 9% Ballycolman 140 10% Culmore 4 160 9% Culmore 2 90 10% Clare 150 7% East 130 10% Creggan Central 1 150 15% Carn Hill 2 90 10% Brandywell 150 8% Sion Mills 170 9% Westland 140 8% Glenderg 190 9%

Table 10 cont’: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (Child Benefit)

CB CB Child Child Claimants- Claimants- SOA Benefit SOA Benefit Number of Number of Claimants Claimants Children Children Victoria 530 930 Culmore 4 525 1045 Culmore 4 525 1045 Banagher 490 1005 Crevagh 3 510 925 North 510 960 North 510 960 Holly Mount 2 505 945 Holly Mount 2 505 945 Victoria 530 930 Banagher 490 1005 Crevagh 3 510 925 Enagh 2 490 895 Enagh 2 490 895 Enagh 1 435 765 Eglinton 2 435 840 Eglinton 2 435 840 Shantallow West 4 425 800 Shantallow East 425 740 Finn 420 790

Stats_01.indd 75 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 10 cont’: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (Children in IS/JSA families)

Children Children Children Children in IS/JSA in IS/JSA in IS/JSA in IS/JSA SOA SOA families: families: families: families: 0-15 years 0-19 years 0-15 years 0-19 years Creggan Central 1 315 400 Creggan Central 1 315 400 Brandywell 310 385 Brandywell 310 385 Shantallow West 3 300 365 Shantallow West 3 300 365 Crevagh 3 290 345 Crevagh 3 290 345 Shantallow East 265 340 Shantallow East 265 340 Creggan South 265 335 Creggan South 265 335 Culmore 4 255 300 Culmore 4 255 300 Westland 245 295 Westland 245 295 Shantallow West 2 235 270 East 225 275 Crevagh 2 230 265 Shantallow West 2 235 270

Table 10 cont’: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (ESA)

Employment Employment & Support % of & Support % of SOA SOA Allowance 16-64 Allowance 16-64 Claimants Claimants The Diamond 320 19% Creggan Central 1 190 20% Brandywell 310 20% Brandywell 310 20% Strand 1 300 20% Strand 1 300 20% Victoria 270 12% Shantallow West 1 160 19% Rosemount 260 14% The Diamond 320 19% North 240 11% East 190 18% Creggan South 230 16% Carn Hill 2 130 18% Shantallow East 230 15% Ebrington 2 200 17% Westland 230 17% Shantallow West 3 200 17% Ebrington 2 200 17% Westland 230 17%

Stats_01.indd 76 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 10 cont’: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (Housing Benefit)

Housing SOA Benefit Claimants Strand 1 920 The Diamond 770 Brandywell 740 Victoria 660 Rosemount 630 East 550 Creggan Central 1 530 Westland 520 North 510 Ebrington 2 490

Table 10 cont’: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (IS)

Income % of Income % of SOA SOA Support 16-64 Support 16-64 Creggan Central 1 210 20% Creggan Central 1 210 20% Shantallow East 190 10% Shantallow West 2 120 12% Brandywell 180 9% Crevagh 2 110 12% Creggan South 170 10% Shantallow West 1 110 12% The Diamond 160 8% Shantallow West 3 140 11% Crevagh 3 160 9% Culmore 2 100 11% Victoria 150 6% Creggan South 170 10% Westland 150 9% Shantallow East 190 10% North 140 6% Clondermot 1 100 10% Shantallow West 3 140 11% Brandywell 180 9%

Stats_01.indd 77 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 10 cont’: DSD Welfare Data - Top 10 SOA by actual numbers and % of population of SOA (JSA)

Jobseekers Jobseekers SOA Allowance % of 16-64 SOA Allowance % of 16-64 Claimants Claimants Strand 1 420 27% Strand 1 420 27% The Diamond 270 16% East 190 18% Rosemount 260 14% Creggan Central 1 160 17% Victoria 220 9% The Diamond 270 16% Creggan South 210 15% Westland 200 15% North 210 10% Creggan South 210 15% Brandywell 200 13% Clondermot 1 120 14% Westland 200 15% Rosemount 260 14% East 190 18% Crevagh 2 110 13% Shantallow East 180 12% Brandywell 200 13%

Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit (HB – June 2014; DLA, AA, CA, ESA, IS and JSA – Feb 2014; Child Benefit – Aug 2013; Children in IS/JSA families – Aug 2012)

Stats_01.indd 78 03/06/2015 11:22 2.3: Suicide

The number of deaths from suicide registered in Northern Ireland has increased since 2002. This appears to represent a significant problem in local society as the suicide rate per 100,000 population has risen from the lowest rate compared to other parts of the UK in 2002 to the highest in 2012, peaking at 17.3 in 2010. Deaths from suicide rose by 71% over the period 2002 to 2010 but data for 2012 points towards a reduction of 11% in the number of deaths from suicide since 2010. In 2012, males accounted for 77% of all suicide deaths in Northern Ireland which looks consistent with the typical trend over the past decade

Source: The Local Context – Economy and Society, OFMDFM Economic Policy Unit, September 2014

Graph 11: Suicide rate per 100,000 population, 2002-12

Source: The Local Context – Economy and Society, OFMDFM Economic Policy Unit, September 2014

In 2012, suicide deaths in NI were highest among males aged over 90 years old (82.1 per 100,000 population) and also among males aged 20-24 (57.7 per 100,000 population).

Suicide rates for females are considerably lower across each age group – the highest rate for females is in the 20-24 age group (18.8 per 100,000 population).

Within the DCSDC LGD since 2004 the suicide rate peaked in the period 2006-10. Overall the rate is 13% higher than the rate for NI IN 2008-2012 but within the more deprived SOAs the rate, although dropping, remains 80% higher than the NI rate.

Graph 12 outlines the trend within the crude suicide rate up to 2012.

Stats_01.indd 79 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 12: Crude suicide rate, deaths per 100,000 population (2004-08 to 2008-12)

Source: Sub-Regional Health and Social Care Inequalities Monitoring System 2015, DHSSPSN

Stats_01.indd 80 03/06/2015 11:22 Community Planning Theme 2: Economy 2.1: Employment/Economic Activity

THEMATIC KEY INDICATORS: EXAMPLE

1. Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 – Employment Domain LGD 2. Census of Employment – incl. gender LGD 3. Economic Activity 4. Unemployment 5. Youth Employment 6. NEETs 7. F/T P/T employment 8. Median wage/Gender/public private split 9. Resident Employment/Workplace 10. Not employed by category – Health, Carer 11. Civil Servants by home and work location.

Stats_01.indd 81 03/06/2015 11:22 Map 3: Deprivation - Employment Domain (ED) Rank

Employment Deprivation

Derry and Strabane District Council - ED

Derry - ED Strabane - ED

Please see over for full list of related SOAs.

Stats_01.indd 82 03/06/2015 11:22 SOA ED Rank NIMDM Rank Creggan Central 1 6 10 East 7 12 Strand 1 9 28 The Diamond 14 26 Westland 19 46 Shantallow East 22 45 Clondermot 1 24 58 Creggan Central 2 27 49 Creggan South 34 37 Ballycolman 36 61 Brandywell 40 44 Culmore 2 42 39 Shantallow West 1 55 29 Crevagh 2 56 35 Castlederg 57 97 Shantallow West 2 62 25 Altnagelvin 1 64 88 Rosemount 66 104 West 2 76 153 Victoria 77 101 Beechwood 78 125 Sion Mills 81 141 Carn Hill 2 83 84 Ebrington 2 85 86 Newtownstewart 92 134 Foyle Springs 2 94 137 Finn 106 179 Enagh 1 113 110 Springtown 1 118 123 North 120 187 Dunnamanagh 124 170 Crevagh 3 125 132 Glenderg 132 126 Carn Hill 1 138 164 Culmore 4 140 149 Caw 145 195 New Buildings 1 149 241 Victoria Bridge 157 234 South 1 163 212 Lisnagelvin 1 166 245 890 SOAs in NI. 1 = Clare 169 197 most deprived, 890 least deprived West 1 175 254 Source: NISRA, Demography Artigarvan 176 294 and Methodology Branch

Stats_01.indd 83 03/06/2015 11:22 • Derry City and Strabane District council area ranks 1st in NI in the % of population Employment Deprived [19%]. In total 16,500 are defined as Employment Deprived.

Labour Supply and Business • In 2013, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimated that there were 57,000 people employed in the Derry City and Strabane District council area. This led to a 16-64 employment rate of approximately 57%. • In 2013, the NI Census of Employment estimated that there were 50,253 employee jobs in Derry-Strabane. This total has remained relatively constant from that estimated in 2011 (50,458) and down from the estimate in 2009 (51278).

Table 11: Employee jobs by Council area, 2009 -2013

Derry Year Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time 2009 27540 14690 42229 65% 35% 2011 26523 14787 41310 64% 36% 2013 27011 14303 41314 65% 35% Strabane Year Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time 2009 5476 3573 9049 61% 39% 2011 5329 3819 9148 58% 42% 2013 5334 3604 8939 60% 40% Derry-Strabane Year Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time 2009 33016 18263 51278 64% 36% 2011 31852 18606 50458 63% 37% 2013 32345 17907 50253 64% 36%

Table 12: Employee jobs by Council area by gender and job status, 2013

Derry Strabane DCSDC NI Male 45% 47% 46% 48% Full-time 35% 35% 35% 39% Part-time 10% 11% 10% 9% Female 55% 53% 54% 52% Full-time 30% 24% 29% 27% Part-time 25% 29% 25% 26%

Stats_01.indd 84 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 13: Proportion of employee jobs by industry sector, 2009-2013

The data depicted in Graph 13 do not include employee jobs in Mining/ Quarrying, Utilities, Forestry and Fishing industries. These jobs amount to just over 1 per cent of employee jobs in the DCSDC area. Source: NISRA, Census of Employment

• 19.7% of employee jobs in Derry-Strabane, were in the ‘Human Health and Social Work Activities’; 18.5% of jobs were in ‘Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles’ and 11.2% were in ‘Education’. • 17.7% of male employee jobs in Derry-Strabane, were in the ‘Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles’; 16.4% of jobs were in ‘Manufacturing’ and 9.1% were in ‘Administrative And Support Service Activities’. • 28.8% of female employee jobs in Derry-Strabane, were in the ‘Human Health and Social Work Activities’; 19.2% of female jobs were in ‘Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles’ and 15.6% were in ‘Education’. • The Census of Employment (2011 and 2013) shows that employment creation during the present recessionary period has been lacklustre with new employment simply apace with job losses. • Many of the jobs that have been created have been in areas of high growth such as ICT and Life Sciences. • It is worth noting that even prior to the collapse of the construction sector that DCC area was not overly dependent upon this sector for employment whereas Strabane has a higher dependency on this sector.

Stats_01.indd 85 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 14: % Construction Jobs 2009, 2011 and 2013

Graph 15: % Construction Jobs, 2013 by old LGD

• The Census of Employment does not report on agriculture labour. This is obtained from the annual Farm Census. In 2014, the total agriculture labour force for DCSDC stood at 3339.

Stats_01.indd 86 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 13: Agriculture labour force

Farmers and Other workers Agriculture Area Partners Labour Force FT PT Spouse FT PT Casual Derry 348 214 120 67 97 106 952 Strabane 901 579 265 188 230 224 2387 Derry/Strabane 1249 793 385 255 327 330 3339

• Compared with those in lowland areas, farmers in Less Favoured Areas (LFA) usually face significant handicaps deriving from factors such as remoteness, difficult topography and poor soil conditions. A higher proportion of farms in DCSDC (83%) are considered LFA farms compared with NI as a whole (70%).

Graph 16: Non LFA farms and LFA farms for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council, Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI

Source: DARD, Farm census • The Inter-Departmental –Business Register reported that there were 4525 VAT and/ or PAYE business operating in the DCSDC area. This equated to 6.7 of all firms in Northern Ireland. • In Derry, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing firms made up 12.5% of all the firms. The proportion in Strabane stood at 43.1%. This would be largely made up of farm enterprises. • The vast majority of firms in DCSDC are small firms with an employment size band of 1-4 employees. 76.2% of firms fell into this category compared with 75.6% for NI. • In 2013, there were 240 new businesses ‘born’ in Derry and 115 in Strabane. Both LGDs had a business birth rate of 9.5% compared with an NI birth rate of 8.7%. • In 2013, 225 businesses ‘died’ in Derry and 110 in Strabane. The death rate in Derry was 8.9% and the rate for Strabane was 9.1%. The NI rate stood at 9.2%.

Stats_01.indd 87 03/06/2015 11:22 Earnings • Earnings within the DCSDC area tend to be lower than those for Northern Ireland. For those jobs located in DCSDC the annual gross median wage stood at £18,112 in 2014. For those people living in DCSDC the annual gross median wage stood at £16,580. The gross annual median wage for the whole on NI stood at £18,764 in 2014.

Table 14: Gross annual median earnings for DCSDC, 2014 (£)

Residential Description Work postcode NI postcode All 18112 16580 18764 Male 18347 17329 22327 Female 16879 14925 14871 Full-time 23079 21771 24020 Part-time 9808 8882 8624 Male Full-time 21334 20408 24824 Male Part-time 8937 x 8956 Female Full-time x 23041 22829 Female Part-time 9953 8881 8515

Source: NISRA, ASHE 2014

Graph 17: Gross Annual Median Earnings based on work postcode for Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI (£)

Source: NISRA, ASHE 2014

Stats_01.indd 88 03/06/2015 11:22 Table 15: Median gross annual earnings for full-time employees in the public and private sectors for DCSDC, 2014 (£)

Residential Description Work postcode NI postcode All 18,112 16,580 18,764 Public Sector 28,988 26,057 23,105 Private Sector 16,605 15,409 16,375 Male 18,347 17,329 22,327 Public Sector * * 27,415 Private Sector 18,000 16,605 20,759 Female 16,879 14,925 14,871 Public Sector 26,481 26,713 21,253 Private Sector 14,343 13,982 11,735

Source: NISRA, ASHE 2014

• The importance of the public sector to DCSDC can be seen from the Table 15. For those living in DCSDC the annual gross median wage in 2014 was £16,580. For those working in DCSDC the annual gross median wage in 2014 was £18,112. • For those living in DCSDC and employed in the public sector the wage stood at £26,057 whilst those employed in the private sector had a median earnings of £15,409. • For those working in DCSDC and employed in the public sector the wage stood at £28,988 whilst those employed in the private sector had a median earnings of £16,605

Unemployment • In April 2015, the unadjusted Claimant Count for Derry-Strabane stood at 6,770. This represents 7.1% of the 16-64 population in the area (the rate for NI was 3.8%). • There was a decrease of 2.7% (185) over the month and there was a decrease of 13% (1009) over the year. • The unadjusted Claimant Count for NI decreased by 3.7% between March and April 2014 and decreased by 21.2% over the year. • Derry-Strabane council area had the highest proportion of its populations on the claimant count. • Of those on the claimant count in DCSDC in April 2015, 32% of those had usual occupations at a Skill level 1 grade. This skill level equates to the competence acquired through compulsory education. Job-related competence involves knowledge of relevant health and safety regulations and may be acquired through workers, hotel porters, cleaners and catering assistants.

Stats_01.indd 89 03/06/2015 11:22 • Of those on the claimant count in DCSDC in April 2015, 48% of those had usual occupations at a Skill level 2 grade. This skill level covers occupations that require the same competence acquired through compulsory education, but involve a longer period of work-related training and experience. Occupations at this level include machine operation, driving, caring occupations, retailing, and clerical and secretarial occupations.

• Of those on the claimant count in DCSDC in April 2015, 17% of those had usual occupations at a Skill level 3 grade. This skill level equates to competence acquired through post-compulsory education but not to degree level. Occupations found at this level include a variety of technical and trades occupations, and proprietors of small business. For the latter, significant work experience may be typical. Examples of occupations at this level include catering managers, building inspectors, nurses, police officers (sergeant and below), electricians and plumbers.

• Of those on the claimant count in DCSDC in April 2015, 2% of those had usual occupations at a Skill level 4 grade. This skill level is normally acquired through a degree or an equivalent period of work experience. Occupations at this level are generally termed professional or managerial positions, and are found in corporate enterprises or governments. Examples include senior government officials, financial managers, scientists, engineers, medical doctors, teachers and accountants.

Graph 18: Claimant count by skill level for Derry City and Strabane District Council. April 2015 (usual occupation as at April 2014)

Source: NISRA, Claimant Count

Stats_01.indd 90 03/06/2015 11:22 Graph 19: Claimant count for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council and NI, January 2005 to March 2015 (% 0f 16-64)

Source: NISRA, Claimant Count

Graph 20: % of those aged 18-24 who have been claiming for more than 1 year for DCC, SDC and NI, February 2010 to April 2015

Source: NISRA, Claimant Count

Stats_01.indd 91 03/06/2015 11:23 Economic Inactivity

• In Derry City and Strabane District Council there were a total of 32,694 people, aged 16-64, recorded as economically inactive in the 2011 Census of Population. Of these 13% are retired, 24% are students, 18% are looking after home or family, 33% are long-term sick or disabled whilst 11% have another reason for being economically inactive. • Equivalent figures for NI are as follows – In NI there were a total of 318,442 people economically inactive. Of these 17% are retired, 25% are students, 18% are looking after home or family, 28% are long-term sick or disabled whilst 11% have another reason for being economically inactive.

Graph 21: Population aged 16-64 - reasons for inactivity for Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI

Source: NISRA, Census of population

• The number of those Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEETS) within NI is estimated to be 39,000 (January - March 2015). There are no figures available below NI level but on a pro-rata basis this would equate to 3500 within the DCSDC area. [This is likely to be a conservative estimate based on the levels of employment deprivation recorded within the Multiple Deprivation Measures for NI.] • Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation suggests young people who enter NEET status following education may be more likely to become involved in criminal activity, long term unemployment and substance misuse. Importantly, educational disadvantage may be passed on to the next generation, negatively affecting educational prospects of children.

Stats_01.indd 92 03/06/2015 11:23 2.2: Tourism

Table 16: Estimated overnight Trips, Nights and Expenditure by Local Government District, 2013

Description Overnight Trips Nights Expenditure % of % of % of Number Number £ overall NI overall NI overall NI Antrim & 234,263 6% 914,193 6% 43,239,419 6% Newtownabbey Armagh, Banbridge 201,334 5% 821,771 6% 21,998,743 3% & Craigavon Belfast 1,123,803 27% 3,658,817 25% 227,188,331 31% Causeway Coast 704,716 17% 2,347,447 16% 110,135,250 15% & Glens Derry & Strabane 254,314 6% 936,198 6% 46,814,271 6%

Fermanagh & Omagh 364,682 9% 1,215,312 8% 86,328,516 12%

Lisburn & Castlereagh 123,727 3% 522,020 4% 24,605,662 3%

Mid East Antrim 251,338 6% 839,953 6% 40,450,745 6%

Mid Ulster 141,232 3% 526,673 4% 23,108,917 3%

Newry, Mourne & Down 453,109 11% 1,464,543 10% 49,848,340 7%

North Down & Ards 342,684 8% 1,239,891 9% 48,446,368 7%

Northern Ireland 4,195,200 100% 14,486,818 100% 722,164,563 100%

Derry 193,448 5% 696,483 5% 37,738,136 5%

Strabane 59,890 1% 227,456 2% 8,761,392 1%

Source: Tourism Branch, Economic and Labour Market Statistics

Stats_01.indd 93 03/06/2015 11:23 Table 17: Estimated number of Nights spent on Overnight Trips in NI by Local Government District, 2011-2013

Description 2011 2012 2013 % of % of % of Number Number Number overall NI overall NI overall NI Antrim & 730,059 5% 741,840 5% 914,193 6% Newtownabbey Armagh, Banbridge 769,031 5% 495,157 4% 821,771 6% & Craigavon Belfast 3,708,940 25% 3,966,828 29% 3,658,817 25% Causeway Coast 2,681,215 18% 2,553,712 19% 2,347,447 16% & Glens Derry & Strabane 767,880 5% 704,041 5% 936,198 6%

Fermanagh & Omagh 965,257 7% 845,443 6% 1,215,312 8%

Lisburn & Castlereagh 505,588 3% 582,745 4% 522,020 4%

Mid East Antrim 782,770 5% 655,395 5% 839,953 6%

Mid Ulster 516,777 4% 549,084 4% 526,673 4%

Newry, Mourne & Down 2,042,357 14% 1,424,090 10% 1,464,543 10%

North Down & Ards 1,220,124 8% 1,272,875 9% 1,239,891 9%

Northern Ireland 14,689,999 100% 13,791,212 100% 14,486,818 100%

Derry 634,346 4% 559,181 4% 696,483 5%

Strabane 130,883 11% 111,665 1% 227,456 12%

Source: Tourism Branch, Economic and Labour Market Statistics

Stats_01.indd 94 03/06/2015 11:23 Table 18: Estimated Spend (£) during Overnight Trips in NI by Local Government District, 2011-2013

Description 2011 2012 2013 % of % of % of £ £ £ overall NI overall NI overall NI Antrim & 33,088,401 5% 27,930,413 4% 43,239,419 6% Newtownabbey Armagh, Banbridge 28,245,150 4% 14,936,143 2% 21,998,743 3% & Craigavon Belfast 214,929,979 34% 268,857,896 39% 227,188,331 31% Causeway Coast 106,518,113 17% 123,684,196 18% 110,135,250 15% & Glens Derry & Strabane 29,582,184 5% 26,718,843 4% 46,814,271 6%

Fermanagh & Omagh 56,038,331 9% 35,728,660 5% 86,328,516 12%

Lisburn & Castlereagh 20,399,650 3% 18,956,806 3% 24,605,662 3%

Mid East Antrim 35,200,746 5% 32,832,607 5% 40,450,745 6%

Mid Ulster 17,060,994 3% 23,188,576 3% 23,108,917 3%

Newry, Mourne & Down 61,624,346 10% 64,773,610 9% 49,848,340 7%

North Down & Ards 38,359,787 6% 50,960,382 7% 48,446,368 7%

Northern Ireland 641,047,681 100% 688,568,134 100% 722,164,563 100%

Derry 25,423,590 4% 20,370,897 3% 37,738,136 5%

Strabane 4,154,571 1% 5,475,001 1% 8,761,392 1%

Source: Tourism Branch, Economic and Labour Market Statistics

Stats_01.indd 95 03/06/2015 11:23 Employment

The public private split of employment is 34%/66% This is higher than elsewhere (outside of Belfast) but it is to be expected within an urban centre. It does however reflect to some degree the weak private sector.

Business start ups as reflected in vat registrations average 6.7% in 2014v in line with population size. In 2011 the majority of employment opportunities are located within five wards of the DCC area, Strand, The Diamond, Enagh, Altnagelvin, Pennyburn and Springtown (66% of all jobs). In Strabane North, South, West and Castlederg East account for 70% of all (employee) jobs – these do not include agriculture.

Oxford Economics Research in 2010 indicated that labour mobility was low within the city with a majority of residents employed within a distance of two wards from their home. This reflects to some degree the proximity of employment opportunities to large centres of population. Ballmagroarty/Galliagh to Springtown/Pennyburn and Lisnagelvin/Altnagelvin ward, Bogside/Brandywell/Creggan to city centre.

Oxford also reported a strong positive correlation between employment distance and skills levels i.e. the higher the level of skills possessed the greater distance from home you were likely to be employed.

Stats_01.indd 96 03/06/2015 11:23 2.3: Education

THEMATIC KEY INDICATORS: EXAMPLE

1. Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 – Education Domain 2. % No/Low qualifications (25-59) 3. School Leaver 3rd Level Participation Rate 4. Educational Attainment – GCSE – 5 GCSE A-C incl. Maths/ English also by FSME 5. Educational Attainment – 2+ A Level also FSME 6. 18-24 NEETS

Stats_01.indd 97 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 4: Deprivation - Education, Skills and Training (EST) Domain Rank Education, Skills and Training

Derry City and Strabane District Council - ESTD

Derry - ESTD Strabane - ESTD

Please see over for full list of related SOAs.

Stats_01.indd 98 03/06/2015 11:23 NIMDM NIMDM SOA EST Rank SOA EST Rank Rank Rank Shantallow West 2 39 25 Altnagelvin 1 96 88 East 41 12 Carn Hill 2 107 84 Shantallow West 1 54 29 Shantallow East 108 45 Crevagh 2 56 35 Ballycolman 119 61 Culmore 2 63 39 Shantallow West 3 136 151 Creggan Central 1 75 10 Creggan Central 2 144 49 Brandywell 85 44 Enagh 1 155 110 Culmore 3 87 147 New Buildings 1 170 241 Creggan South 93 37

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

Table 19: Pre-school enrolments in schools situated in the DCSDC area, 2007/08-2014/15

SOA 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Nursery Classes 1064 1064 1086 1113 1117 1120 1173 1161 Nursery Schools 556 541 549 547 548 555 * * Pre-schools 422 415 374 410 402 442 384 419 Reception 23 27 35 31 36 33 15 21 Total 2065 2047 2044 2101 2103 2150 * *

Source: DE, School enrolment data *Data for Strabane unavailable for 2013/14 and 2014/15

Graph 22: Pre-school enrolments in schools situated in the DCSDC area, 2007/08-2014/15

Stats_01.indd 99 03/06/2015 11:23 1. Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 – Education and Skills Domain 17 out of 75 DCSDC SOAs lie within the 20% most deprived SOAs when ranked by the Education and Skills Domain. 2. % No/Low qualifications (25-59) 17 out of 75 SOAs within DCSDC lie within the worst 20% within the Education and Skills Domain. Graph 23: Qualification levels of those people aged 25-59 for Derry City and Strabane District Council

Source: Census 2011 The stock of those within DCSDC area aged 16+ with no or low level qualifications (defined as NVQ Level 1 or below) in 2011 was 53,238. This represents 46.4% of usual residents aged 16+. The percentage has fallen since 2001 from 63.3% due in part to those leaving the workforce being more likely to have no/low qualifications than those entering the workforce. 3. School Leaver 3rd Level Participation Rate Of those who left school in 2012/13, 80.6% went on to participate in 3rd Level Education. 4. Educational Attainment – GCSE and A-level Of those who left school in 2012/13, 80.6% went on to participate in 3rd Level Education.

DCSDC NI Qualification Number % % 2+ A-levels A*-E 1227 55.5 55.7 5+ GCSEs A*-C 1688 76.4 78.6 5+ GCSEs A*-C inc. GCSE English & Maths 1296 58.7 63.5

Source: DE, Qualifications and Destinations of leavers, 2013/14

100

Stats_01.indd 100 03/06/2015 11:23 “Tony Gallagher QUB commented in Agenda 2014:

The key indicator for GCSE performance is achieving five subjects between grades A* and C, including English and maths. Stark contrasts appear when that attainment is correlated against entitlement to free school meals.

As expected, the 80-100 per cent pass rates are concentrated in high income areas. Another, looser cluster (25-50 per cent) is found in middle income areas although these also have some very low performing schools – including one with no pupils reaching that standard and 10 with single figure percentages. The inequalities reflect differing performances between Catholic maintained and state-controlled schools, and the recurring problem of low attainment among working class Protestant boys. Pupils from a Protestant background account for 76 per cent of pupils attending controlled grammars and 82 per cent of pupils attending controlled non-grammars.

Pointing to the trend lines for non-grammar schools, Gallagher explains: “What these showed is that while the level of social disadvantage is very much higher for Catholic schools, there is a performance gap between the school types to the advantage of Catholic schools that widens as the level of social disadvantage increases.”

Across all categories of grammar schools, more than 90 per cent of boys

and girls achieve five GCSE passes. In the non-grammars, the highest“ performers are girls in Catholic maintained schools (48 per cent) and the lowest are boys in controlled schools (26 per cent).

Agenda NI, 2014

101

Stats_01.indd 101 03/06/2015 11:23 Graph 24: Pupils achieving at least 5 GCSE’s grades A*-C (or equivalent) (including English and Mathematics) (%) by LGD, 2008-2012

Source: DENI Statistics and Research Team

5. Educational Attainment – 2+ A Level also FSME Educational attainment at 2+ A Levels is slightly above the NI average (55.1%) at 58.1% for the DCSDC area.

Graph 25: % who have achieved 2+ A-levels (or equivalent) (%) by LGD 2007-2012

Source: DENI Statistics and Research Team

102

Stats_01.indd 102 03/06/2015 11:23 Graph 26: % Percentage achieving at least 5 GCSEs A*-C (inc. equivalents) inc. GCSE English and maths 2012/13 Free School Meals Entitlement for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council and NI

Source: DENI Statistics and Research Team

Graph 27: Percentage achieving at least 5 GCSEs A*-C (inc. equivalents) inc. GCSE English and maths 2012/13 Non Free School Meals Entitlement for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council and NI

Source: DENI Statistics and Research Team

103

Stats_01.indd 103 03/06/2015 11:23 Graph 28: Percentage achieving at least 5 GCSEs A*-C (inc. equivalents) inc. GCSE English and maths 2012/13 by gender for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council and NI

Source: DENI Statistics and Research Team

6. 16-24 NEETS There are no specific figures within the DCSDC area for those Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEETS) but on a pro-rata basis with the rest of NI it is estimated that 3500 individuals fall into this category.

104

Stats_01.indd 104 03/06/2015 11:23 2.4: Skills Success through Skills – Transforming Futures The Skills Strategy for Northern Ireland – DEL 2011

The need for higher-level skills There will be an increasing need for people with higher level skills (Levels 4-8 on the qualifications frameworks) within the workforce. This increasingly ‘skills hungry’ job market will have an impact right across the skills spectrum.

The need to up-skill As over 75% of the 2020 workforce have already completed their compulsory school education1, there must be a renewed focus on the up-skilling or re-skilling of these people. As a result, employers will need to be encouraged to see the wider skills agenda and encourage their staff to gain more knowledge through training. It is important that these qualifications are accredited. To permit the Department to prioritise this work, the need for basic numeracy and literacy interventions must be significantly decreased through the work being taken forward by the Department of Education.

The need to address subject imbalances Forecasts predict that degree subject requirements will become more skewed towards physical sciences, mathematical and computer sciences, engineering and technology, law and creative arts and design (‘imagineers’ rather than pure art) and less skewed towards subjects allied to medicine and education. Consideration should be given to the ways in which students can be encouraged to study these subjects. The ‘Report of the STEM Review’ examines ways in which Government and business can increase the number of people with STEM qualifications entering the workplace. The need to increase management and leadership skills. It is not enough, though, to have a workforce with the right skills – that workforce needs to be utilised effectively and this is where good management and leadership plays a vital role.

The need to attract skilled labour Where there are insufficient numbers of people with high level skills a certain amount of in-migration of suitably skilled people will be required.

105

Stats_01.indd 105 03/06/2015 11:23 Table 21: Skills classification and terminology

NQF/QCF/FHEQ6 Examples Terminology

8 Doctorate; Vocational qualifications (VQs) Level 8

Postgraduate 7 Masters, postgraduate certificate and diploma; VQs Level 7

6 Honours degree; VQs Level 6

5 Sub-degree including foundation degree; VQs First degree and sub degree 4 Level 5

Certificates of higher education; VQs Level 4

3 VQs Level 3, e.g. NVQ Level Intermediate 3; A-Levels A

2 VQs Level 2, eg NVQ Level 2; Intermediate GCSE grades A*-C; Essential B Skills Level 2

1 VQs Level 1, eg NVQ Level 1; GCSE grades D-G; Essential Skills Level 1 Entry Low Entry Level qualifications in adult literacy, other qualifications

Source: DEL: Skill Strategy, 2011

106

Stats_01.indd 106 03/06/2015 11:23

Graph 29: Qualifications of people in employment – aspirational scenario 120 Forecast

100 Postgraduate (NQF7-8) 80 First Degree and

Sub Degree (NQF 4- 60 6) Intermediate A (NQF 3) 40 Intermediate B (NQF 2) % Total Employment % Total

Low (NQF 1 and below) 0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year Source: DEL, 2011

The evidence cited above relates to those people who stay in Northern Ireland. In addition, many leave – especially those potentially high-skilled young people, many of whom leave Northern Ireland to pursue higher education options and who subsequently do not return; and in addition, others who do undertake higher education in Northern Ireland here then leave following graduation. This is, in part, an element of a UK-wide picture that could be characterised as a drift to the job- rich areas of London and the South-East of England, as other regions show a similar haemorrhaging of people with high level qualifications. Nevertheless, addressing this drift remains a challenge for Northern Ireland: in 2007/2008, 13% of leavers gaining higher education qualifications through full-time study at Higher Education Institutions in Northern Ireland were employed outside the region11.

The future labour market Information obtained through evidence sources such as the Oxford Economics report and the Sector Skills Councils help to give us a better understanding of how the economy of the future may look. This, in turn, gives us an opportunity to use this information to forecast the level of skills our workforce may require and the areas in which these skills should be focused.

107

Stats_01.indd 107 03/06/2015 11:23 In order to meet the aspirational economic scenario it is forecast that there will be:

• an increased need for higher level skills; • an increased need for up-skilling of the existing workforce; • a need to reduce sectoral imbalances; • an increased need for management and leadership skills; and • a need to attract skilled labour.

The need for higher level skills As the figure 4.1 shows, under the aspirational scenario the proportion of those in employment with qualifications at Level 4 to Level 8 will need to rise to 52% in 2020 from 33% in 200812, pointing to an increasingly ‘graduate hungry’ economy. At the same time, projections show the size of 18-20 year old cohort (the main source of entry into higher education) is expected to decrease by 13.5% over the next ten years13. Conversely, the proportion of those in employment with low qualifications is forecast to fall to 10% by 2020 as fewer jobs in the future will require no qualifications. However, it is important to note that whilst driving increased economic growth will require a more highly skilled workforce, the labour market will still require significant numbers of workers across the skills spectrum. Progression across the whole skills spectrum from Level 2 upwards will be required. As those people with Level 3 qualifications increase their skills to gain Level 4 qualifications, and above, those people with Level 2 qualifications will need to increase their skills to ensure that the Level 3 requirement is also met, and so on. A major barrier to raising the skills profile of our workforce is the fact that in the region of 20% of those in employment still have no formal qualifications14. Although it is anticipated that the policies of the Department of Education will have a direct impact on the number of people leaving school with an A*-C grade in their Maths and English GCSEs, more needs to be done by the Department of Education if the Department for Employment and Learning is to be released from the necessity to provide current basic numeracy and literacy interventions for those people already past compulsory school age who lack basic numeracy, literacy and ICT skills.

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Stats_01.indd 108 03/06/2015 11:23 Theme 3: Environmental 3.1: Environment

THEMATIC KEY INDICATORS EXAMPLE

1. Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 – Living Environment Domain 2. NI Local Authority Collected Municipal Waste Management Report 3. Planning Development Management Bulletin 4. Housing Information 5. Housing Quality 6. Average Household Size Projections 7. Housing Stress 8. Method of Travel to work 9. Anti-Social Behaviour statistics 10. Road Traffic Collisions 2013/14 11. Fear of Crime 12. Urban Rural Report 2011/12 13. Volunteering omnibus report

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Stats_01.indd 109 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 5: Deprivation: Living Environment (LE) Domain Rank Living Environment

Derry City and Strabane District Council - LED

Derry - LED

NIMDM SOA LE Rank Rank The Diamond 13 26 Rosemount 18 104 Ebrington 2 21 86 Westland 45 46 Strand 2 59 441 Strand 1 61 28 Victoria 85 101 Beechwood 98 125 Creggan Central 1 122 10 Creggan South 128 37 Ebrington 1 153 493

Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

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Stats_01.indd 110 03/06/2015 11:23 1. Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010 – Living Environment Domain

2. NI Local Authority Collected Municipal Waste Management Report In 2013 35.3% of local authority collected municipal waste in Derry City Council Area was recycled and composted compared to 28.9% in Strabane. The figure for NI was 40.6%. In 2013 34.6% of household waste in Derry City Council Area was recycled and composted compared to 30.4% in Strabane. The figure for NI was 41.3%.

3. NI Local Authority Collected Municipal Waste Management Report Between October and December 2014 there were 230 applications received for the new Derry City and Strabane District Council area. There were a total of 1.5 applications per thousand population. Of these 210 applications were decided and 194 were approved (92.4%)

Graph 30: LAC Municipal waste sent for recycling (including composting) as a % of total LAC municipal waste arisings, 2005/06 TO 2013/14 for Derry City Council area, Strabane District Council Area, NI and NWRWMG

Source: DOE, Northern Ireland Local Authority Collected Municipal Waste Management Statistics 4. Housing Information Of all domestic properties in the Derry City Council area 3% were converted apartments, 10% purpose built apartments, 23% were detached properties, 27% were semi-detached properties and 38% were terraced properties. Of all domestic properties in the Strabane District Council area 1% were converted apartments, 3% purpose built apartments, 48% were detached properties, 20% were semi-detached properties and 28% were terraced properties.

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Stats_01.indd 111 03/06/2015 11:23 Derry District Housing Plan & Local Housing Strategy 2014 / 2015, NIHE

Housing market statistics Owner occupation is the most popular tenure in the DCCA but, at 57.9%, is lower than the Northern Ireland figure of 67.5% (Source Census 2011); The private rented sector houses 17.1% of households in the DCCA compared with 15% across Northern Ireland (Source Census 2011); The proportion of social housing in the DCCA (22.7%) is greater than the Northern Ireland figure of 14.9% (Source Census 2011); The University of Ulster’s Quarterly House Price Index records the average house price in the DCCA at £104,072 during 2013. This represents an decrease of 6.4% on the previous year, and is below the Northern Ireland average of £131,204; At March 2014, the Housing Executive owned 6,895 properties in the DCCA, having sold 8,152 dwellings since the introduction of the House Sales Scheme; At March 2014, there were 3,376 applicants registered on the waiting list for social housing in the DCCA; 2,250 (66.6%) were in housing stress; The housing market in the DCCA is slowly recovering with increased sales with the majority of activity within the lower and mid-priced housing market; The private rented sector is popular, with high demand throughout the DCCA, with greatest demand for city centre properties. The number of private housing benefit claims decreased between March 2013 and March 2014, though the full effects of changes to housing benefit entitlement remain to be seen; The gap between demand and supply within the DCCA’s social housing sector remains a major concern and the impact of welfare reform proposals on waiting lists is being carefully monitored. We continue to review the requirement and availability of one bed properties and identify opportunities to increase supply through new build. The housing tenure breakdown in the DCCA is recorded in Census 2011. In summary: Owner occupation continues to be the most popular tenure in the DCCA. At 57.9% it is lower than the Northern Ireland figure of 67.5%; 17.1% of households reside in the private rented sector (Northern Ireland 15%). The DCCA private rented sector’s proportion of the total housing market has grown from 8.4% since 2001; The proportion of social housing (22.7%) in the district is greater than the Northern Ireland figure of 14.9%. DSD’s Northern Ireland Housing Bulletin reports 97 private sector new build starts in the DCCA in the year to September 2013. This represents a decrease of 33.1% since last year. The Bulletin also reports that 13 new build properties were sold in the DCCA during the quarter ending June 2013.

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Stats_01.indd 112 03/06/2015 11:23 Local estate agents have indicated that in some cases rents have increased beyond the Local Housing Allowance, resulting in housing benefit not covering the full charge. Local estate agents have also reported an increasing cross-border influence on the private rented sector in the DCCA. Agents continue to report people returning to Derry from border towns such as Muff, Killea and Brigend. Agents indicated that the private rented sector is a satisfactory solution for the majority of tenants. However they also reported insufficient social housing as a growing issue particularly for tenants who face housing benefit shortfall when paying their rent. The Local Housing Allowance for a three bed dwelling is up to £97.60 per week (as at April 2014). Private sector housing benefit claims decreased in the DCCA between March 2013 and March 2014. The number of applications for discretionary housing payment to meet this shortfall has increased dramatically in the last year. At March 2014, Housing Executive stock within the DCCA totalled 6,895. Of these, were 42 voids pending allocation. These were spread throughout the DCCA.

Table 22 Social Housing Need Assessment (HNA) 2013-2018

Settlement 5 Year Projected District / Town Social Housing Need Westbank (Waterloo Place) 750 Westbank (Collon Terrace) 800 Waterside 1 70 Waterside 2 50 Settlement Villages Claudy 10 Eglinton 20 Strathfoyle 10 Strathfoyle 5 Drumahoe 5 Currynierin 5 Small Settlements Nixons Corner 6

Total 1,731

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Stats_01.indd 113 03/06/2015 11:23 Household projections estimated by NISRA predict an increase in the total number of households in Northern Ireland by 10% over the next ten years (2014- 2024). Single person households are expected to increase by 20% over this period, meaning that their share of total households may rise by 3 percentage points to 34%. Two-adult households without children are also projected to grow more than average rising by 0.8 percentage points to around 28%, over the next ten years. The average household size is anticipated to reduce from 2.45 persons in 2014 to 2.34 persons in 2024. This downward trend is expected to continue in the following decade with an average household size of 2.24 persons forecast for 2033.

The Local Context- Economy and Society, OFMDFM, 2014

Graph 31: Household waste sent for recycling (including composting) as a percentage of household waste arisings by district council area

Source: DOE, Northern Ireland Local Authority Collected Municipal Waste Management Statistics

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Stats_01.indd 114 03/06/2015 11:23 Graph 32: Annual CO2 emission estimates for Derry City Council area and Strabane District Council Area (ktCO2)

Source: UK local authority and regional carbon dioxide emissions national statistics: 2005-2012, Department of Energy and Climate Change (Please note there are significant uncertainties in the estimates for Northern Ireland in particular and great care should be exercised in drawing conclusions at local council level for Northern Ireland)

Graph 33: Annual CO2 per capita emission estimates, Derry City Council area, Strabane District Council Area and NI (t)

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Stats_01.indd 115 03/06/2015 11:23 Table 23: Results of Automatic Monitoring for Particulate Matter (PM10)

Valid Data Capture for Valid Data Valid Data capture 2012 % Site period of capture monitoring 2012 % 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 %

Brooke Park 50 50 20.6 23.2 22.3 22.5 18.6 18.4

Springhill Park 85.6 85.6 17 17 22 23 18 18 Strabane

Sources: Derry City Council LAQM Progress Report 2013, Air Quality Progress Report for Strabane District Council, 2013

Within Derry, PM10 is measured at the Brooke Park site. Data capture for 2012 was low with only 50% being recorded in 2012. The data has been annualised (based on technical guidance), to provide an estimate of the annual mean for 2012. The results of PM10 monitoring indicate that the Air Quality Strategy (AQS) objectives are currently being met at the Brooke Park location.

Within Strabane, PM10 is measured at Springhill Park. The results of PM10 monitoring indicate that the AQS objectives are currently being met at the Springhill Park location.

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Stats_01.indd 116 03/06/2015 11:23 Fuel Poverty

Fuel poverty in Northern Ireland, OFMDFM, 2013 Fuel poverty is defined as follows: “..a fuel poor household is one that cannot afford to keep adequately warm at reasonable cost. The most widely accepted definition of a fuel poor household is one which needs to spend more than 10% of its income on all fuel use and to heat its home to an adequate standard of warmth. This is generally defined as 200C in the living room and 180C in the other occupied rooms – the temperatures recommended by the World Health Organisation.” (UK Fuel Poverty Strategy, 2001). Northern Ireland has the highest prevalence of fuel poverty in the UK (see table below), and one of the highest in the EU, with the current estimate indicating that 42% of households in Northern Ireland are experiencing fuel poverty (NIHE, 2013).This represents a decrease of 33.1% since last year. The Bulletin also reports that 13 new build properties were sold in the DCCA during the quarter ending June 2013.

Number Country Number (millions) Percentage Year of estimate

England 3.20 15% 2011

Scotland 0.58 25% 2011

Wales 0.37 29% 2011

Northern Ireland 0.29 42% 2011

Graph 34: Fuel Poverty Risk Index, (baseline indicator of need) mapped at COA level. Ineligible COAs, and LGD shown

Source: Tacking Fuel Poverty in NI, OFMDFM, 2013

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Stats_01.indd 117 03/06/2015 11:23 There are many reasons why Northern Ireland should have such a high predominance of fuel poverty, but the principal driver has been demonstrated to be the region’s reliance on oil for domestic heating (Liddell, Morris, Rae & McKenzie, 2011). More than three-quarters of households in Northern Ireland use oil as the most common method to heat the home (NIHE, 2013) due to the under-development of a natural gas network. The oil dependency culture of this region, and concomitant high fuel bills for heating, make the region particularly at risk of fuel poverty.

Fuel Poverty (administrative geographies)

LGD 2011 Households 2011 in Fuel Poverty (%) Antrim 19,709 38 - 42 Ards 30,964 38 - 42 Armagh 21,216 43 - 46 Ballymena 20,270 47 - 51 Ballymoney 11,424 52 - 56 Banbridge 17,975 38 - 42 Belfast 151,567 32 - 37 Carrickfergus 13,234 43 - 46 Castlereagh 27,254 38 - 42 Coleraine 23,332 52 - 56 Cookstown 10,543 52 - 56 Craigavon 35,297 38 - 42 Derry 40,468 47 - 51 Down 25,745 43 - 46 Dungannon 16,560 47 - 51 Fermanagh 18,840 52 - 56 Larne 10,859 52 - 56 Limavady 12,007 47 - 51 Lisburn 44,913 38 - 42 Magherafelt 12,282 47 - 51 Moyle 6,560 52 - 56 Newry and Mourne 34,406 43 - 46 Newtownabbey 33,371 38 - 42 North Down 32,679 38 - 42 Omagh 15,059 52 - 56 Strabane 14,708 52 - 56

NISRA, 2011

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Stats_01.indd 118 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 6: Deprivation - Living Environment Domain - Housing Access (HA) Sub-Domain Rank Living Environment – Housing Access

Derry City and Strabane District Council - HA

Derry - HA

NIMDM SOA LE Rank Rank The Diamond 30 26 Ebrington 2 33 86 Shantallow West 2 68 25 Shantallow West 1 87 29 Strand 1 90 28 Crevagh 2 92 35 Rosemount 114 104 Culmore 2 120 39 Carn Hill 1 142 164 Creggan Central 1 145 10 Carn Hill 2 156 84 Victoria 162 101 Springtown 1 165 123 890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch least deprived

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Stats_01.indd 119 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 7: Deprivation - Living Environment Domain - Outdoor Physical Environment (OPE) Sub Domain Rank Living Environment – Outdoor Physical Environment

Derry City and Strabane District Council - OPED

Derry - OPED NIMDM SOA LE Rank Rank The Diamond 73 26 Westland 76 46 Ebrington 2 86 86 Rosemount 87 104 Strand 1 97 28 Creggan South 101 37 Carn Hill 2 106 84 Strand 2 126 441 Beechwood 131 125 Victoria 150 101 Brandywell 152 44 Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch Creggan Central 2 166 49 Carn Hill 1 175 164 Shantallow West 2 177 25

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived

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Stats_01.indd 120 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 8: Deprivation - Crime and Disorder Domain - Crime (CR) Sub- Domain Rank Crime and Disorder - Crime

Derry City and Strabane District Council - CR

Derry - CR Strabane - CR

CR Sub- CR Sub- NIMDM NIMDM SOA Domain SOA Domain Rank Rank Rank Rank The Diamond 15 26 Shantallow West 2 94 25 Strand 1 16 28 Culmore 2 125 39 Ebrington 2 34 86 Crevagh 2 126 35 Shantallow West 1 56 29 North 143 187 Victoria 77 101 Rosemount 177 104

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

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Stats_01.indd 121 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 9: Deprivation - Crime and Disorder Domain - Disorder (DS) Sub- Domain Rank Crime and Disorder - Disorder

Derry City and Strabane District Council - DS

Derry - DS Strabane - DS

CR Sub- CR Sub- NIMDM NIMDM SOA Domain SOA Domain Rank Rank Rank Rank The Diamond 16 26 North 139 187 Strand 1 36 28 Crevagh 2 147 35 Ebrington 2 53 86 West 2 149 153 Culmore 2 101 39 Rosemount 164 104 Culmore 3 103 147 Altnagelvin 2 170 546 Shantallow West 2 108 25 Victoria 173 101

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

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Stats_01.indd 122 03/06/2015 11:23 Graph 35: Household composition projections 2014-24

Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

1. Housing Quality The number of dwellings in the Derry City Council area is 43,062 and the percentage of non decent homes in this area is between 5% and 8%. The number of dwellings in the Strabane District Council area is 15,900 and the percentage of non-decent homes in this area is between 9% and 11%

2. Average Household Size Projections Average household size projection for Derry City Council Area in 2023 is 2.49. Average household size projection for Strabane District Council in 2023 is 2.57. NI Average household size projection for 2023 is 2.36.

3. Housing Stress Of the applicants to NI Housing Executive Waiting Lists for Derry City Council area 61.8% are applicants in housing stress (that is they have more than 30 points). Of the applicants to NI Housing Executive Waiting Lists for Strabane District Council are 41.6% are applicants in housing stress (that is they have more than 30 points). Equivalent figures for NI are as follows – of the applicants to NI Housing Executive Waiting Lists 52.2% are applicants in housing stress (that is they have more than 30 points)

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Stats_01.indd 123 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 10: Deprivation - Housing Quality (HQ) Sub-Domain Rank Housing Quality

Derry City and Strabane District Council - HQ

Derry - HQ Strabane - HQ

CR Sub- CR Sub- NIMDM NIMDM SOA Domain SOA Domain Rank Rank Rank Rank Strand 2 5 441 Claudy 2 88 401 Rosemount 16 104 Victoria 98 101 Westland 41 46 Plumbridge 99 261 The Diamond 49 26 Strand 1 148 28 Beechwood 57 125 Glenderg 156 126 Ebrington 1 76 493 Creggan Central 1 171 10 Ebrington 2 79 86 Pennyburn 1 175 411

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

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Stats_01.indd 124 03/06/2015 11:23 Graph 36: Applicants in housing stress: 30 pts plus (NIHE new, NIHE transfer, and HA transfer by District Council area for 2013

Source: DSD, Analytical Services Unit 8. Method of Travel to work Of those usual residents aged 16-74 in the Derry City and Strabane District Council area 10.7% work from their home. 0.3% go to work by train, 3.7% go to work by bus, minibus or coach, 0.2% by motorcycle, scooter, moped, 55.7% drive a car or van, 5.7% are a passenger in a car or van, 10.4% are members of a car pool/shared driving, 2.9% go to work by taxi, 0.5% go to work by bicycle, 9.1% go to work on foot and 0.7% use another method/form of transport to get to work.

Table 24: Method of travel to work for those aged 16-74 and in employment and currently working (%)

Method of travel DCSDC NI Driving a car or van 55.7 57.7 Work mainly at or from home 10.7 10.3 Car or van pool, shared driving 10.4 9.8 On foot 9.1 7.7 Passenger in a car or van 5.7 4.9 Bus, minibus or coach 3.7 4.8 Taxi 2.9 1.4 Other method 0.7 0.8 Bicycle 0.5 0.9 Train 0.3 1.3 Motorcycle, scooter or moped 0.2 0.4.7

Source: NISRA, Census of Population 2011

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Stats_01.indd 125 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 11: Deprivation - Income Deprivation Affecting Children (IDAC) Rank Income Deprivation Affecting Children

Derry City and Strabane District Council - IDAC

Derry - IDAC Strabane - IDAC

Please see over for full list of related SOAs.

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Stats_01.indd 126 03/06/2015 11:23 NIMDM NIMDM SOA IDAC Rank SOA IDAC Rank Rank Rank Creggan Central 1 2 10 Shantallow West 3 87 151 Shantallow West 2 7 25 Crevagh 3 89 132 Crevagh 2 9 35 Culmore 3 92 147 Shantallow West 1 14 29 The Diamond 97 26 Shantallow East 18 45 Rosemount 99 104 East 21 12 Enagh 1 100 110 Culmore 2 27 39 Victoria 103 101 Creggan Central 2 28 49 Culmore 4 109 149 Creggan South 34 37 Castlederg 110 97 Brandywell 35 44 Strand 1 117 28 Altnagelvin 1 52 88 Foyle Springs 2 134 137 Westland 55 46 Caw 142 195 Carn Hill 2 59 84 Newtownstewart 150 134 Springtown 1 66 123 Shantallow West 4 156 365 Ballycolman 67 61 South 1 159 212 Clondermot 1 77 58 Beechwood 178 125 Ebrington 2 86 86

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

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Stats_01.indd 127 03/06/2015 11:23 9. Anti-Social Behaviour statistics In 2013 there were 5,329 anti-social behaviour incidents in the Derry City and Strabane District Council area. This is a decrease of 18% on the previous year (2012) in which there were 6,494 incidents. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows – In 2013 there were 60,706 anti-social behaviour incidents in NI. This is a decrease of 7% on the previous year (2012) in which there were 65,357 incidents.

10. Road Traffic Collisions 2013/14 In 2013 there were 452 road traffic collisions in the Derry City and Strabane District Council area and from these collisions there were 738 casualties (of which 4 were fatalities). Equivalent figures for NI are as follows – In 2013 there were 5,820 road traffic collisions in the Derry City and Strabane District Council area and from these collisions there were 9,187 casualties (of which 57 were fatalities).

11. Fear of Crime Information on fear of crime is taken from the NI Crime Survey. In 2012, in the WHSCT, 70.5% of respondents stated that the effect of ‘fear of crime’ on their quality of life was low whilst 26.4% of respondents stated that the effect of ‘fear of crime’ on their quality of life was medium and 3.2% stated that it was high. Equivalent figures for NI are as follows - In 2012, in NI, 70.4% of respondents stated that the effect of ‘fear of crime’ on their quality of life was low whilst 25.4% of respondents stated that the effect of ‘fear of crime’ on their quality of life was medium and 4.2% stated that it was high.

OFMDFM 2014 P 11 Graph 37: Proportion of Households in Fuel Poverty

Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

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Stats_01.indd 128 03/06/2015 11:23 Rurality Map 12: Deprivation - Proximity to Services (PXS) Domain Rank Proximity to Services

Derry City and Strabane District Council

Derry Strabane

Please see over for full list of related SOAs.

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Stats_01.indd 129 03/06/2015 11:23 NIMDM NIMDM SOA PXS Rank SOA PXS Rank Rank Rank Plumbridge 4 261 Slievekirk 50 269 Glenderg 9 126 Claudy 2 76 401 Banagher 17 344 Victoria Bridge 98 234 Dunnamanagh 23 197 Finn 140 179 Dunnamanagh 34 170 Holly Mount 1 141 283

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch One third of Super Output Areas in NI are defined as rural by the Inter-Departmental Group15. Within the New Council area 18 of the 75 SOAs are classified as Rural. These are listed within Table 21 below. Thus a total of 43,919 persons in the DCSDC live in areas defined as rural out of the total population of 148,633 (2013). This equates to 30% of the population.

Table 25: Urban – Rural composition of Derry City and Strabane District Council area

SOA No. of People % of Population No. SOAs % of SOAs Rural 43,919 30% 18 24% Urban 104,714 70% 57 76% DCSDC 148,633 100% 75 100%

15 Report of the Inter-Departmental Urban-Rural Definition Group Statistical Classification and Delineation of Settlements, NISRA, 2005.

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Stats_01.indd 130 03/06/2015 11:23 Table 26: Urban – Rural composition of Derry City and Strabane District Council area

SOA Name 2013 population

Artigarvan 2,848 Banagher 3,503 Castlederg 2,115 Clare 2,658 Claudy 1 1,573 Claudy 2 1,958 Donemana 2,170 Eglinton 1 1,813 Eglinton 2 2,617 Enagh 2 3,408 Finn 2,876 Glenderg 2,604 Holly Mount 1 2,309 Newtownstewart 2,254 Plumbridge 2,223 Sion Mills 2,268 Slievekirk 2,464 Victoria Bridge 2,258

As noted elsewhere within this report deprivation measures do not adequately identify areas of deprivation where they are not clustered, such as in rural areas. As was noted in Dec 2014 at the proceedings of the DARD Committee by NISRA. “We recommend that policymakers, users and resource allocation experts look first at the domains rather than at the multiple deprivation measure (MDM) to see whether there are any domains that meet their policy needs. The proximity- to-services domain is the one that we say meets rural needs because it highlights the relative rankings of rural areas better than urban areas16.” (p2: DARD, 9 Dec 2014) It was further stated “It is NISRA’s opinion that if you want to use multiple deprivation measures, check out the output area level for rural areas, but it still recommends the proximity-to-services domain as the number-one go-to measure of deprivation in rural areas.” (p4: DARD, 9 Dec 2014)

16 Anti-Poverty and Social Inclusion: NISRA, DARD Committee, 9 Dec 2014.

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Stats_01.indd 131 03/06/2015 11:23 With this caveat in mind within the 2010 NISRA MDMs it is found seven of the most deprived Rural SOAs in NI are located within the old Strabane LGD. They include:

SOAs amongst 20 most deprived in NI Castlederg Glenderg Newtonstewart Sion Mills Donemana Finn Clare

These are mapped to assist in identifying the areas and their relationship to one another. A future piece of research scheduled as a follow up to this report will review the Output Area data within the rural area of DCSDC area in line with suggestions contained within the DARD Committee report.

Graph 38: Non LFA farms and LFA farms for Derry City Council, Strabane District Council, Derry City and Strabane District Council and NI

Source: Farm Census, DARD

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Stats_01.indd 132 03/06/2015 11:23 Graph 39: Agricultural Labour for Derry City and Strabane District Council Area

Source: Farm Census, DARD

Graph 40: Number of VAT and/or PAYE Registered businesses operating in NI by New LGD and broad industry group

Source: Inter Departmental Business Register, DFP – Economic and Labour market Statistics Branch

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Stats_01.indd 133 03/06/2015 11:23 Rurality Multiple Deprivation Measure: Proximity to Services Domain

In rural areas given that many services are located in urban centres then access to services can be difficult. The Proximity to Services Domain measures the travel time to a range of services. These include (amongst many other services) GP premises, Hospital Accident & Emergency, Jobs and Benefits Offices, Council Leisure Services and Supermarkets/Food Stores17.

SOA No. of People % of Population No. of SOAs % of SOAs Rural 43,919 30% 18 24% Urban 104,714 70% 57 76% DCSDC 148,633 100% 75 100%

It is found that seven of the 95 SOAs fall into the worst 10% in terms of Proximity to Services. All of these are rural. They include:

SOAs amongst 20 most deprived in NI Banagher Claudy 2 Clare Donemana Glenderg Plumbridge Slievekirk

Taking into consideration the advice from NISRA reflected in the DARD Committee then these are the rural geographic areas in which need is most evident (using this domain as a proxy measure for overall need). In order to provide some more detail on the specific differences in urban/rural areas we turned to the Family Resources Survey Urban Rural Report18 April 2014 which provides a range of information pertaining to rural life. • Rural West had the highest proportion of income from self-employment in NI (15%). • Rural West had the highest proportion of households receiving any non-income related benefit (76%), whilst Urban East had a figure of 69%. • Rural West had the highest percentage of households owning their accommodation outright (48%).

17 It is recognised that does not equate to access e.g. lack of access to car, public transport etc. 18 NISRA, Family Resources Survey 2011-12, April 2014.

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Stats_01.indd 134 03/06/2015 11:23 • In the rural area one quarter of males were self-employed f/t p/t, whilst in the urban area the figure was 14%.

• Rural West and Urban West had highest percentage of households containing one or more unemployed adults under pension age (9%).

• Highest proportion of single parent households were found in Belfast Metropolitan area (8%) with the lowest in the Rural West.

• Rural West has the highest percentage of individuals in relative poverty after housing costs (25%).

Turning to overall trends within the rural area and a comparative analysis of urban/ rural the following infographic produced by DARD provides a useful overview.

Cultural Deprivation Index19 - Rural

The report shows that the more rural SOAs tend to be more deprived with regards to proximity to sports facilities, while the urban SOAs are less deprived. In fact, all 89 SOAs in the most deprived decile are classified as rural, while 85 of the 89 SOAs in the least deprived decile are urban.

The CDI highlights the urban and rural differences in the proximity to culture, arts and leisure services. The 20% most deprived areas are generally rural SOAs (171 of the 178 SOAs are rural). In contrast, there are no rural SOAs in the 40% least deprived areas (Figure 2.5b). The most deprived SOA is Belleek and Boa in Fermanagh District Council, while the least deprived is Ebrington 2 in Derry City Council.

19 See previous section on Cultural Deprivation Index, DCAL, 2014 Add in Page No.

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Stats_01.indd 135 03/06/2015 11:23 136

Stats_01.indd 136 03/06/2015 11:23 Table 26: Ethnicity 2011 Census. LGD(2014)

Ethnic group

All usual Irish LGD2014 White Chinese Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi residents Traveller

Antrim & Newtownabbey 138567 135635 671 27 808 157 15

Armagh, Banbridge 199693 196777 528 136 388 196 25 & Craigavon

Belfast 333871 322813 2378 277 2330 258 210

Causeway Coast & Glens 140877 139422 339 40 225 39 11

Derry and Strabane 147720 145546 301 116 670 48 12

Fermanagh & Omagh 113161 112092 142 115 202 48 6

Lisburn & Castlereagh 134841 131623 692 35 659 113 37

Mid & East Antrim 135338 133948 275 92 193 71 12

Mid Ulster 138590 136485 270 258 173 23 6

Newry, Mourne & Down 171533 169743 301 183 267 44 29

North Down & Ards 156672 154365 406 22 283 94 177

Ethnic group

Black Black LGD2014 Other Asian Black other Mixed Other Caribbean African

Antrim & Newtownabbey 370 31 173 51 520 109

Armagh, Banbridge 463 32 195 108 605 240 & Craigavon

Belfast 2032 95 1074 165 1599 640

Causeway Coast & Glens 213 15 71 19 356 127

Derry and Strabane 222 53 86 41 462 163

Fermanagh & Omagh 191 10 23 10 212 110

Lisburn & Castlereagh 637 23 209 58 558 197

Mid & East Antrim 193 11 71 21 341 110

Mid Ulster 198 21 199 256 396 305

Newry, Mourne & Down 158 29 105 90 409 175

North Down & Ards 321 52 139 80 556 177

Source: Census 2011

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Stats_01.indd 137 03/06/2015 11:23 Table 26: Ethnicity 2011 Census. LGD(2014)

Ethnic group

All usual Irish White Chinese Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi LGD2014 residents Traveller (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Antrim & Newtownabbey 138567 97.9 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0

Armagh, Banbridge 199693 98.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 & Craigavon

Belfast 333871 96.7 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1

Causeway Coast & Glens 140877 99.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0

Derry and Strabane 147720 98.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0

Fermanagh & Omagh 113161 99.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0

Lisburn & Castlereagh 134841 97.6 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0

Mid & East Antrim 135338 99.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Mid Ulster 138590 98.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0

Newry, Mourne & Down 171533 99.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0

North Down & Ards 156672 98.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1

Ethnic group

Other Black Black Black Mixed Other LGD2014 Asian Caribbean African other (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Antrim & Newtownabbey 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1

Armagh, Banbridge 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 & Craigavon

Belfast 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.2

Causeway Coast & Glens 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1

Derry and Strabane 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1

Fermanagh & Omagh 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1

Lisburn & Castlereagh 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2

Mid & East Antrim 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1

Mid Ulster 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2

Newry, Mourne & Down 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1

North Down & Ards 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1

Source: Census 2011

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Stats_01.indd 138 03/06/2015 11:23 Equality Some information is provided in the following sections on Ethnicity, Gender, Age (Older People, Child Poverty) and Disability. The following information relates to the Ethnic populations of NI. Given the small numbers, comparatively, within the DCSDC area this data provides a more robust analysis of characteristics.

Ethnicity: Detailed Characteristics for NI on Ethnicity, Country of Birth and Language – Census 2011

Key Points

Ethnicity and Age Usual residents from the Asian, Black, Mixed or Other main ethnic groups had younger age profiles than those who were of White ethnicity. For instance, 93 per cent of people of Mixed ethnicity were aged under 45 years, compared with 87 per cent of those who were of Black origin, 82 per cent of people of Asian ethnicity, 76 per cent of those from Other ethnic groups and 61 per cent of people who were ethnically White. Conversely, 15 per cent of people who were of White ethnicity were aged 65 and over, compared with 5.4 per cent of those from Other ethnic groups, 3.0 per cent of those of Asian ethnicity, 1.3 per cent of people who were ethnically Black and 1.1 per cent of those of Mixed ethnicity.

Ethnicity and Household Size Households in which the Household Reference Person (HRP) was of Asian or Black ethnicity were more likely to contain 4 or more people (39 per cent and 36 per cent respectively) than households in which the HRP was from the Other (30 per cent), Mixed (29 per cent) or White (25 per cent) ethnic groups.

Ethnicity and Occupation Over a third (35 per cent) of usual residents aged 16-74 in employment who were of Asian ethnic origin worked in Professional occupations (including 22 per cent as Health professionals), more than double the proportion of people of White ethnicity (17 per cent). The equivalent rates for the other main ethnic groups working in Professional occupations were: Mixed (23 per cent); Other (21 per cent) and Black (19 per cent) respectively. People of White ethnicity were more likely than those from other main ethnic groups to be employed in Administrative and secretarial occupations (14 per cent), more than double the proportions of those from the Other or Asian ethnic groups (6.7 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively).

Ethnicity and Country of Birth A tenth (10 per cent) of usual residents who were of White ethnicity were born outside Northern Ireland, compared with 85 per cent of people from the Black main ethnic group, 79 per cent of those of Asian origin, 68 per cent of those of Other ethnicity and 39 per cent of those of Mixed ethnicity.

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Stats_01.indd 139 03/06/2015 11:23 Country of Birth and Age Over half (53 per cent) of usual residents born in Northern Ireland were aged 35 and over, compared with almost three-quarters (73 per cent) of those born in the Republic of Ireland, 70 per cent of those born in either Scotland or Wales and 63 per cent of those born in England. Of particular note was the low proportion of usual residents born in the EU accession countries who were aged 35 and over (27 per cent), including 25 per cent of those born in Poland and 27 per cent of those born in Lithuania.

Country of Birth and Household Size Households in which the Household Reference Person (HRP) was born outside Northern Ireland had a larger average household size (2.64 persons) than households in which the HRP was born in Northern Ireland (2.53). The highest average household sizes related to those households in which the HRP had been born in Asian or EU accession countries, including: the Philippines (3.35); Lithuania (3.08); Poland (3.01); India (2.98); Latvia (2.95); China (2.85); and Slovakia (2.81).

Country of Birth and Tenure Usual residents born outside Northern Ireland were more likely than those born in Northern Ireland to live in the Private rented sector (36 per cent versus 13 per cent) and less likely to live in Owner-occupied accommodation (54 per cent versus 74 per cent). Usual residents born outside Northern Ireland were also less likely than those born in Northern Ireland to live in properties owned by the NIHE (7.6 per cent versus 10 per cent) or Housing Associations (2.5 per cent versus 2.8 per cent), although the differences were less marked.

On Census Day 2011, over three-quarters (76 per cent) of usual residents born in the EU accession countries were living in the Private rented sector, ranging from 72 per cent of those born in Latvia to 82 per cent of those born in Slovakia.

Country of Birth and Economic Activity Some 57 per cent of usual residents aged 16-74 and born in Northern Ireland were in employment on Census Day 2011, making up the major part of the 66 per cent who were economically active. Probably influenced by their younger age profiles, those born in the EU accession countries, in countries which were members of the EU before 2004 or in Other countries had higher levels of both employment (77 per cent, 65 per cent and 64 per cent respectively) and economic activity (85 per cent, 76 per cent and 74 per cent respectively).

Country of Birth and Occupation While people born in EU accession countries represented 3.0 per cent of usual residents aged 16-74 in employment, they comprised 8.3 per cent of Process, plant and machine operatives and 7.8 per cent of those employed in Elementary occupations. In addition, while 2.5 per cent of those in employment were born outside the EU, they constituted 4.3 per cent of people employed in Professional occupations.

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Stats_01.indd 140 03/06/2015 11:23 Country of Birth and Religion or Religion Brought Up In People who were born in one of the EU accession countries accounted for 6.2 per cent of the usually resident population aged 25-34. Three-quarters (76 per cent) of this cohort were or had been brought up as Catholics, 10 per cent as Protestants, 1.0 per cent in Other religions, while 13 per cent had no religion.

Main Language and Proficiency in English While very high proportions of usual residents aged 3 and over whose main language was Tagalog / Filipino (99 per cent), Irish (Gaelic) (98 per cent) or Malayalam (92 per cent) could speak English well or very well, lower proportions of those who spoke mainly Chinese (61 per cent), Lithuanian (62 per cent), Slovak (64 per cent), Polish (66 per cent), Russian (66 per cent), Hungarian (68 per cent), Latvian (71 per cent) or Portuguese (73 per cent) could speak English well or very well.

Two-fifths (41 per cent) of the 2,700 usual residents aged 3 and over who could not speak English at all spoke mainly Polish, 14 per cent spoke mainly Lithuanian, 6.4 per cent spoke mainly Chinese, 4.6 per cent spoke mainly Slovak and 4.5 per cent spoke mainly Portuguese.

Main Language, Proficiency in English and Age Usual residents aged 3 and over whose main language was not English typically had much younger age profiles than those whose main language was English. For instance, over half (55 per cent) of those whose main language was not English were aged 25-44, double the proportion of those whose main language was English (28 per cent).

Proficiency in Language and Occupation Among usual residents aged 16-74 in employment, based on Standard Occupational Classification (SOC 2010), some 28 per cent of those whose main language was not English but who could speak English very well worked in Professional occupations. High proportions of usual residents aged 16-74 in employment whose main language was not English and did not speak English very well worked in Skilled trades or Elementary occupations or as Process, plant and machine operatives. For instance, a third (33 per cent) of people who could not speak English well or at all worked in Elementary occupations, compared with 14 per cent of those who spoke English very well and 10 per cent of those whose main language was English.

Irish and Ulster-Scots and Country of Birth Although 2.2 per cent of usual residents aged 3 and over were born in the Republic of Ireland, they accounted for 8.9 per cent of those with some ability in Irish. Similarly, while 0.9 per cent of usual residents aged 3 and over were born in Scotland, they comprised 2.0 per cent of those with some ability in Ulster-Scots.

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Stats_01.indd 141 03/06/2015 11:23 Disability Census 2011 contained a new question on disability. One third of those who completed the Cenus reported suffering from a long-term condition and of those 38% said they had a mobility or dexterity difficulty. Almost 33% had long term pain or discomfort and 30% had breathing difficulties.

The majority of the results were in line with those found across NI. The accompanying table lists the disabilities reported and the numbers affected at DCSDC area level.

Type of long-term condition

Northern Derry and Strabane Condition type Ireland Number % % Deafness or partial hearing loss 6886 14.1% 16.4% Blindness or partial sight loss 2636 5.4% 5.4% Communication difficulty 2620 5.4% 5.2% A mobility or dexterity difficulty 18746 38.3% 36.4% A learning, intellectual, social or behavioural difficulty 3675 7.5% 7.1% An emotional, psychological or mental health condition 11126 22.8% 18.5% Long-term pain or discomfort 16042 32.8% 32.1% Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing 14418 29.5% 27.7% Frequent periods of confusion or memory loss 3189 6.5% 6.3% A chronic illness 9590 19.6% 20.8% Other condition 8233 16.8% 16.6%

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Stats_01.indd 142 03/06/2015 11:23 Gender Equality Strategy Statistics: 2014 Update

Key Points Education & Training

Working age qualifications • There has been a decline over time in the proportion of the working age population of both genders without any qualifications. In 1996, there was a higher proportion of females (31.3%) without qualifications than males (27.9%), and this position has gradually reversed to a lower proportion of females without qualifications (17.1%) than males (20.2%) in 2012 (Indicator 1.1).

School leavers’ qualifications and subject choice • Despite steady improvements in the educational achievements of both male and female school leavers at GCSE and GCE A-Level between 1996/97 and 2012/13, females still outperformed males overall in every year (Indicators 1.6 and 1.7).

• In 2012/13, 82.8% of female school leavers had gained at least five GCSEs at grade C or above or their equivalent, compared to 74.5% of male school leavers (Indicator 1.6). Also in that academic year, 63.3% of female school leavers had achieved two or more GCE A-levels or their equivalent, compared to only 47.3% of male school leavers (Indicator 1.7).

• In 2012/13, a higher proportion of males than females were reported for the following: those school leavers not achieving five or more GCSEs at grades A*-C (Indicator 1.2); those leaving school not achieving five or more GCSEs at grades A*-G (Indicator 1.3); school leavers with no GCSEs (Indicator 1.4); and those leaving school with no formal qualifications (Indicator 1.5). While these trends are consistent with those in previous publications, in each case there is some evidence that the gender gap is decreasing over time.

• In 2013, females comprised a higher proportion of those who sat CCEA exams at GCSE level in Art & Design, Religious Studies, French, Science: Biology, Mathematics and Science: Double Award. Males comprised a higher proportion of those examined in Science: Physics and History. More even gender splits were witnessed among those examined in English, Geography, and Science: Chemistry (Indicator 1.8a).

• A higher proportion of females than males achieved at least a grade C at GCSE for each of the core subjects in CCEA exams in 2013, with the biggest gender gap reported for Religious Studies, where 88.1% of females compared to 65.0% of males achieved at least a grade C (Indicator 1.8b).

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Stats_01.indd 143 03/06/2015 11:23 • At GCE A-level, males comprised a higher proportion of those examined by CCEA in Physics, ICT, Economics, Mathematics and Government & Politics in 2013. Females comprised a higher proportion in Art & Design, French, Biology and Geography. For those who sat exams in Chemistry and History, there was an almost even split of males and females (Indicator 1.9a).

• A higher proportion of females than males achieved at least a grade C at GCE A-Level for the majority of the core subjects in CCEA exams in 2013 – the only exceptions were Chemistry and Economics (where males performed better), and Government & Politics (where the proportions achieving at least a grade C were equal) (Indicator 1.9b).

Higher and further education progression and subject choice • The proportion of school leavers progressing to higher education increased for both males and females between 1992/93 and 2012/13, from 23.7% to 36.9% and 28.2% to 48.7%, respectively. Throughout this period, female school leavers were consistently more likely than males to progress to higher education institutions (Indicator 1.10).

• In 1992/93 female school leavers were more likely than their male counterparts to progress to further education institutions (40.5% v 32.4%). This pattern was reversed by 2012/13, when 35.7% of male and 33.2% of female school leavers progressed to further education (Indicator 1.11).

• In 2012/13 the composition of full-time enrolments at higher education institutions in Northern Ireland was 45.1% male and 54.9% female (Indicator 1.12).

• The higher education subject area with the highest proportion of female enrolments was subjects allied to Medicine – this accounted for approximately one in five female enrolments, compared to approximately only one in twenty males. Males were most likely to enrol in Business & Administrative Studies (18.3%), Engineering & Technology (14.4%), and Computer Science (12.4%) (Indicator 1.13).  • In 2012/13 the composition of full-time new entrant enrolments at further education institutions was 56.7% male and 43.3% female (Indicator 1.14).

• The highest proportion of females who enrolled full-time at further education institutions in 2012/13 were in the subject area Health, Public Services & Care (29.7%); this compares to only 2.5% of male new entrants. A similar pattern also emerged for Retail & Commercial Enterprise courses. The highest proportions of male new entrants enrolling in full-time courses were for Engineering & Manufacturing Technologies (22.2%), and Construction, Planning & the Built Environment (16.6%). In contrast, these subjects accounted for only 1.7% and 0.8% of female enrolments, respectively (Indicator 1.15).

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Stats_01.indd 144 03/06/2015 11:23 • Approximately three fifths of all Northern Ireland domiciled students gaining qualifications at UK higher education institutions were female (11,095) in 2012/13, with males comprising the remaining two fifths (7,655). Similar proportions were evident when undergraduate (8,475 females and 5,905 males) and postgraduate (2,625 for females and 1,750 for males) qualifications were disaggregated (Indicator 1.16).

Teachers and academic staff • For all types of school, female teachers have continued to vastly outnumber male teachers over the years recorded in this report. The gender disparity has been least evident in Grammar and Secondary schools and greatest in nursery schools, with no male nursery staff between 2003/04 and 2012/13 (Indicator 1.17).

• Between 2001/02 and 2012/13, there has consistently been a higher proportion of male full-time academic staff at Northern Ireland higher education institutions than females. The reverse has been true for part-time academic staff over this period, where females have consistently outnumbered males (Indicators 1.18 and 1.19)

Employment Employment levels • The proportion of working age females in employment has increased from 56.0% in 1996 to 63.2% in 2012 – the highest percentage recorded over this period. In comparison, the proportion of working age males in employment has increased by only 0.4 percentage points over this period, from 70.5% in 1996 to 70.9% in 2012. This latter proportion falls short of the peak of 74.9% in 2007, and also represents a decrease from 2011 (71.6%) (Indicator 2.1).

• Between 1996 and 2012, the proportions of working age males and females aged 50 and over in employment have increased (from 58.9% to 65.3% and from 40.5% to 55.6%, respectively). Over this period, this rate has been consistently higher among males than females, although there has been something of a convergence in recent years - the percentage point difference between the rates has decreased from 18.4 in 1996 to 9.7 in 2012 (Indicator 2.4).

Unemployment • The proportion of working age persons who are unemployed, having decreased between 1996 and 2008, has experienced an increase since then. Female rates have decreased from 4.1% in 1996 to 3.4% in 2012. This proportion was at its lowest in 2008, at 1.5%. Male rates have experienced larger fluctuations, having dropped from 9.9% in 1996 to 3.6% in 2007, before increasing again to 7.4% in 2012 (Indicator 2.2).

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Stats_01.indd 145 03/06/2015 11:23 People with a disability in employment • Between 1998 and 2012, the proportion of working age people with a disability who are in employment has increased for both males and females. Over this period, however, the proportion of working age males with a disability in employment has been consistently higher than the same figure for working age females with a disability (Indicator 2.3).

Economic inactivity levels • Working age economic inactivity rates have been consistently higher among females than males between 1996 and 2012, although the gap has decreased from 20.2 percentage points to 11.7 percentage points over this period. This is a result of the female working age economic inactivity rate decreasing (from 39.9% in 1996 to 33.4% in 2012), and the male rate increasing (from 19.7% to 21.7%) (Indicator 2.5a).

• Consistent with previous years, the most common reason for working age economic inactivity among females in 2013 was family/home responsibilities (75,000). For males, however, in contrast to previous years, the most common reason for working age economic inactivity in 2013 was being a student (47,000) as opposed to disability/illness (44,000) (Indicator 2.5b).

• The proportion of economically inactive persons of working age who say that they would like paid work was 20.2% for females and 20.4% for males in 1996. Having fluctuated over the years, the respective rates were 13.9% for females and 18.1% for males in 2012 (Indicator 2.6)

Workless and work rich households • In 2013, females (17.0%) were more likely than males (13.5%) to live in workless households and this was consistent with the pattern observed between 2002 and 2013 (Indicator 2.7).

• On the other hand, a slightly higher proportion of males (42.6%) than females (41.6%) lived in work-rich households in 2013, although the opposite was true in 2012 (Indicator 2.8).

Occupation • In 2012, the highest proportion of both male (18.2%) and female (21.1%) employees aged 16 and over worked in professional occupations (Indicator 2.9). The gender split of this occupation was 55.5% female and 44.5% male. Greater gender differences were apparent in other occupations: skilled trade occupations and process, plant and machinery operatives were predominantly male; while caring, leisure and other service occupations, and administrative and secretarial occupations were predominately female (Indicator 2.10).

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Stats_01.indd 146 03/06/2015 11:23 Industry • In 2013, the highest proportions of both females (93.6%) and males (69.3%) worked in service industries. Males were more likely than females to work in the manufacturing (17.8% v 4.5%) and construction (7.6% and 1.1%) industries (Indicator 2.11). The manufacturing and construction industries were dominated by males, while the service industry was majority female (Indicator 2.12).

Employment status • In 2012, as with previous years, the proportion of female employees working part- time as opposed to full-time was higher than for male employees (39.2% v 10.4%) (Indicator 2.13). This is reflected in the composition of full-time employees (57.7% male, 42.3% female in 2012) and part-time employees (80.3% female, 19.7% male in 2012) (Indicator 2.14).

• Consistent with previous years, in 2013 the median weekly number of basic hours worked was higher among males than females (37.5 hours v 32.4 hours) (Indicator 2.15). The median weekly overtime hours worked was also higher among males than females (5.0 hours v 3.2 hours) – and again this was consistent with previous years.

Pay and Earnings • Consistent with previous years, the mean full-time gross weekly earnings was higher for males (£567.60) than females (£497.20) in 2013 (Indicator 3.1). Using the median measure of full-time gross weekly earnings shows a reduced gap between males (at £477.40) and females (at £441.50), given that the median is unaffected by small numbers of very high earnings (Indicator 3.2).

• Excluding overtime, median full-time gross hourly earnings of females (£11.45) was slightly higher than that of males (£11.37) in 2013 (Indicator 3.4). The mean full-time gross hourly earnings, again excluding overtime, was higher for males (£13.92) than females (£13.16), however (Indicator 3.5).

• Similar patterns emerged for part-time work, where the median gross hourly earnings excluding overtime was higher for females (Indicator 3.7) and the mean gross hourly earnings excluding overtime was higher for males (Indicator 3.8).

Income and Poverty Poverty • Between 2004/05 and 2012/13, the number of single homeless single males increased by 17.5%, from 5,928 to 6,968. Over the same period the number of homeless single females increased by 19.2%, from 3,071 to 3,660 – although there was a slight decrease between 2011/12 and 2012/13 (from 3,769 to 3,660) (Indicator 4.2).

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Stats_01.indd 147 03/06/2015 11:23 • Similar proportions of working age males and females comprised those in low income poverty, both before and after housing costs, in 2011/12. In contrast, females comprised almost two-thirds (65%) of pensioners living in low income households, before housing costs (Indicator 4.3).

• The risk of living in a low income household was similar for both males and females of working age, both before and after housing costs. Female pensioners were more likely than male pensioners to be in relative low income before housing costs but the risk was similar after housing costs (Indicator 4.4).

Benefits and pensions • Whilst males comprised only a slightly higher proportion (51.5%) of those claiming a key benefit in 2013 (Indicator 4.5), receipt of particular individual benefits were more gendered. In 2013, females comprised approximately two-thirds (67.6%) of those claiming Income Support, but only 28.1% of those claiming Job Seeker’s Allowance (Indicators 4.6 and 4.7).

Childcare • The number of childcare places has increased by 39.4% between 1994 and 2013, from 33,508 to 46,694. This was driven by increases in day nursery and registered child minder places, counter balanced by a decline in playgroup places.

• The number of pre-school places has more than doubled from 10,785 in 1995/96 to 23,507 in 2013/14. The number of places in reception provision, contrary to the rises seen in other pre-school places, declined from 2,459 in 1995/96 to only 343 places in 2013/14 (Indicator 5.2).

Informal Caring • Due to small sample sizes, some of the data for female informal adult carers and all of the data for male adult informal carers cannot be presented for 2011/12. In 2010/11, a sizeable proportion of females (37%) and males (27%) regularly provided informal care for less than ten hours each week. More than one in ten informal adult carers regularly provided informal care for 35 hours or more each week in 2010/11 (Indicator 6.1).

• Due to the small sample size, data on the employment status of male adult informal carers were suppressed for the 2011/12 Family Resources Survey. Just over one fifth (21%) of female adult informal carers were full-time employees in 2011/12 – this compares to 28% in 2010/11. Almost one quarter (23%) of female adult informal carers were retired in 2011/12 – a three percentage point increase from the corresponding figure in 2010/11 (20%) (Indicator 6.2).

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Stats_01.indd 148 03/06/2015 11:23 Health Life expectancy and death rates • Between 1992-94 and 2010-12 females have consistently had a higher life expectancy at birth than males, although the gender gap in this life expectancy has decreased from 5.7 years to 4.4 years over this period. In 2010-12, life expectancy at birth was 82.1 for females and 77.7 for males (Indicator 7.1).

• The standardised death rate for males decreased from 9.4 per 1,000 in 1992 to 7.9 per 1,000 in 2012, although it did increase slightly between 2011 and 2012 (from 7.8 per 1,000). Similarly, the rate for females decreased from 9.0 per 1,000 in 1992 to 8.2 per 1,000 in 2012, although again it increased between 2011 and 2012 (from 7.9 per 1,000) (Indicator 7.2).

Sport or physical activity • Between 2006/07 and 2012/13, a consistently higher proportion of males than females reported participating in sport or some form of physical activity (excluding walking for recreation). In 2012/13, 61% of males and 46% of females had participated in sport or physical activity during the previous 12 months (Indicator 7.3)

Reported health and risk behaviours • Between 1997/98 and 2012/13, a consistently higher proportion of males have reported their general health to be good, although the gap between the genders has decreased from six percentage points to two percentage points over this period. In 2012/13, 62% of males and 60% of females reported their general health as good (Indicator 7.4).

• Between 1997/98 and 2012/13, a consistently higher proportion of females have reported having a limiting long-standing illness than males. In 2012/13, 28% of females and 25% of males had a limiting long-standing (Indicator 7.5).  • The proportion of both males and females aged 16 and over reporting to be a current smoker has decreased between 1990/91 and 2012/13 (from 33% to 25% and from 31% to 23%, respectively) (Indicator 7.6).

• Between 1990/91 and 2011/12, the proportion of males who consume above the sensible limit of alcohol has been consistently higher than the rate for females. Over this period, this proportion has increased for both males (17% to 28%) and females (5% to 13%).

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Stats_01.indd 149 03/06/2015 11:23 Incidence of cancer • The European age standardised rates (EASR) for all cancers for males in Northern Ireland was 567.7 per 100,000 of the population in 1993. This rose to 645.0 per 100,000 in 2012. The rate for females was 451.0 per 100,000 of the population in 1993. This also rose, to 518.7 in 2012 (Indicator 7.8).

• Between 1993 and 2012 the EASR for lung cancer has been consistently higher among males than females, although there has been something of a convergence in recent years. In 1993 the rate for males was 77.9 per 100,000 and the rate for females was 34.5 per 100,000. By 2012 the rate for males had decreased to 60.7 per 100,000, while the rate for females had increased to 42.5 per 100,000 (Indicator 7.9).

Deaths from suicide • Between 1995 and 2012, the number of male deaths from suicide or self-inflicted injury was consistently higher than that for females; of the 278 deaths in 2012, 77% were male and 23% were female. Male deaths from suicide or self-inflicted injury more than doubled over this period, from 105 deaths to 215 deaths. The number of female deaths also increased, from 41 deaths in 1995 to 63 deaths in 2012 (Indicator 7.10).

Transport Driving • In 2010-12, the majority of journeys taken by males (72%) and females (76%) aged 16 and over used a car as the main mode of transport. Broadly similar proportions were reported in 1999-01 (72% for males and 73% for females) (Indicator 8.2).

• Broadly similar patterns emerged when comparing the journeys by purpose, disaggregated by gender, for 1999-01 and 2010-12. In 2010-12, males were more likely than females to make a journey to commute (22% v 16%), for business (6% v 2%), or for entertainment, public social activities or sport (6% v 4%). In 2010-12, females were more likely than males to make a journey to escort or accompany another person (16% v 11%), for shopping (23% v 20%), for personal business (14% v 13%), or to visit friends (15% v 14%) (Indicator 8.3).

Violence and Crime Domestic violence • The number of adult females, adult males, and children under 18 recorded as victims of domestic abuse crimes has increased year-on-year between 2010/11 and 2013/14. Between 2004/05 and 2013/14 there has been consistently more adult females recorded as victims of domestic abuse than adult males; for 2013/14 the figures were 7,265 and 2,823, respectively (Indicator 9.1). females were more likely than males to make a journey to escort or accompany another person (16% v 11%), for shopping (23% v 20%), for personal business (14% v 13%), or to visit friends (15% v 14%) (Indicator 8.3).

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Stats_01.indd 150 03/06/2015 11:23 Fear of crime • In 2012/13, as in previous years, females were more likely than males to report that the fear of crime had either a moderate (28% v 22%) or great (5% v 3%) effect on their quality of life. Conversely, a higher proportion of males than females reported that a fear of crime had a minimal effect on their quality of life (75% v 66%) and again this was consistent with previous years (Indicator 9.2).

Victimisation rates of violent crime • Between 1997 and 2012/13, the proportion of adult victims of violent crime decreased for both genders, and was consistently lower for females than males. In 1997, 6.6% of adult males were victims of crime, compared to 2.4% of females; by 2012/13 these proportions had reduced to 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively (Indicator 9.3).

Prison population • Between 2000 and 2012, the average Northern Ireland prison population of both males (1,045 to 1,719) and females (23 to 56) has increased. Throughout this period, the vast majority of the average prison population has been male; in 2012, 96.8% of the average population was male, with the remaining 3.2% female (Indicator 9.4).

Decision Making Roles • Between 2000 and 2013, males have consistently outnumbered females at the highest grades (Grade 5 and above) within the Northern Ireland Civil Service (NICS). The proportion of females at these grades has increased, however, from 11.3% in 2000 to 31.7% in 2013 (Indicator 10.1).

• Consistent with previous years, in 2013, the proportion of females decreased as the grade level increased; 60.4% of staff at the Administrative Assistant/ Administrative Officer grade were female, while this proportion decreased to 54.7% for the Executive Officer grades. For the Staff Officer/Deputy Principal grades, 44.9% were female, and this decreased further to 41.2% for Grade 7 and Grade 6 (combined) (Indicator 10.1).

• In 2013, one fifth (19.4%) of Northern Ireland Health and Social Care (HSC) staff were male and the remaining four fifths (80.6%) were female (Indicator 10.2).

• The data collected shows that women continue to be underrepresented in relation to elected political office, appointments to public bodies and in the Judiciary. The composition of Lay Magistrates, by contrast, indicates that 57% were female at May 2014.

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Stats_01.indd 151 03/06/2015 11:23 An Investigation of Gender Equality Issues at the Executive Level in Northern Ireland Public Sector Organisations

Overall, there is a significant degree of inequality in the structure of the gender division of labour at executive level (including executive director and non-executive positions) in the Northern Ireland public sector (70.8% male and 29.2% female).

A significant degree of variation exists in the overall gender composition of executives among the five organisational types of the Northern Ireland public sector.

The gender composition of both executive director and non-executive positions is closest to parity within organisations in the Health and Social Care sector and this contrasts sharply with the remaining four public sector types.

Notable differences exist in the gender composition of executives when organisations are analysed by sponsoring government department.

• DARD, DRD and DFP have gender compositions which comprise in excess of 80% males; • DCAL, DETI, DOE and DOJ have gender compositions which comprise between 70 and 80% males; • DE, DEL and the NIO have gender compositions which comprise between 60 and 70% males; and DHSSPS, OFMDFM and DSD have gender compositions which comprise between 50 and 60% males.

Occupational segregation (both vertical and horizontal) exists within the Northern Ireland public sector

• Males hold the majority (79%) of Chief Executive roles, indicating the existence of vertical segregation32 within the Northern Ireland public sector; • Horizontal segregation33 is particularly evident in the following roles: operations (70.4% male); corporate services (65.5% male); strategy, policy and development (64% male); and finance roles (63.9% males). • There is a positive relationship between the size of an organisation’s senior management board and the number of females at executive level. • There is no significant variation in the composition of the gender of Chief Executives across the five public sector organisational types • The gender of the Chief Executive position has a significant and positive effect on the total number of female executives (i.e. the total of executive directors and non-executive directors) and female executive directors employed in the Northern Ireland public sector

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Stats_01.indd 152 03/06/2015 11:23 • The gender of the Chief Executive position has a significant and positive effect on the total number of female executives (i.e. the total of executive directors and non-executive directors) and female executive directors employed in the Northern Ireland public sector • There is no significant variation in the composition of the gender of the Chairperson across the five public sector organisational types • The gender of the Chair has a significant and positive impact on the number of female executives within an organisation

Gender Regimes in the Northern Ireland Public Sector

In the earlier discussion, the theory of gender regimes was introduced as a way of understanding gender equality in the public sector. Drawing on this theory, the findings presented in this chapter provide some insights into the first and second of Connell’s four dimensions of gender relations, namely the division of labour and the division of power within the Northern Ireland public sector.

With respect to a division of labour, there is evidence to suggest a gendered division of labour exists:

• between men and women holding different occupational roles (specifically horizontal segregation) in the Northern Ireland public sector (see Table 4.5). • The findings of stage one of the research also provide evidence of gender relations of power within the Northern Ireland public sector: • between men (70.8%) and women (29.2%) in terms of the overall gender composition of the Northern Ireland public sector • between men and women within all sectors, with the exception of Health and Social Care, of the Northern Ireland public sector, • between men and women who hold executive positions (68.1% male and 31.9% female) and non-executive positions (72.0% male and 28.0% female) in the Northern Ireland public sector • between men and women holding Chief Executive positions within the Northern Ireland public sector, between men and women holding the non-executive Chair position within the Northern Ireland public sector

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Stats_01.indd 153 03/06/2015 11:23 Experience of Domestic Violence: Findings from the 2008/09 to 2010/11 Northern Ireland Crime Surveys, Department of Justice, July 2013

Definition and Key Findings

Definition Within the context of the Northern Ireland Crime Survey (NICS), the concept of domestic violence (interchangeably referred to as domestic violence and / or abuse), which covers a range of emotional, financial, sexual and physical abuse, is subdivided into three main offence groups: NON-PHYSICAL ABUSE (denied access to a fair share of household money; stopped from seeing friends and relatives; having property deliberately damaged; or constantly belittled to the point of feeling worthless); THREATS (frightened by threats to hurt the individual or someone close); and FORCE (pushed, held, pinned or slapped; kicked, bitten or hit; choked or strangled; threatened with a weapon; death threats; forced to have sex or take part in sexual activity; use of a weapon; or use of other force).

Key findings Findings from NICS 2010/11 estimate that 15.7% of people aged 16-64 have experienced at least one form of domestic violence, by a partner, since age 16, with women (19.3%) displaying a higher prevalence rate than men (11.5%).

NICS 2010/11 results also estimate that around one-in-twenty adults (5.2%) experienced at least one form of partner violence and abuse within the last three years, a similar proportion to that observed in both NICS 2008/09 (6.4%) and 2009/10 (6.3%).

At 6.9% in NICS 2010/11, women were over twice as likely as men (3.2%) to have been victims of domestic violence, by a partner, in the last three years, a gender difference that is reflected across each of the three separate offence groups examined: non- physical abuse (5.6% v 2.7%); threats (1.9% v 0.2%); and force (3.5% v 0.8%).

When identified victims were asked to consider their ‘worst’ single incident of partner violence and abuse, NICS 2010/11 findings show that around four-fifths (83%) were carried out within the setting of a current relationship at the time, with the perpetrator most likely to have been a current boyfriend / male partner (35.9%) or husband (31.8%).

The police in Northern Ireland were only made aware of around one-third of all ‘worst’ cases of domestic partner abuse (31.1% in NICS 2010/11), meaning that they were unaware of the experiences of seven-in-ten victims (68.9%).

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Stats_01.indd 154 03/06/2015 11:23 cases of domestic partner abuse (31.1% in NICS 2010/11), meaning that they were unaware of the experiences of seven-in-ten victims (68.9%).

While most victims did consider their worst incident of partner abuse to be a criminal offence (56.2% in NICS 2010/11), over two-fifths did not, with around a quarter (28.8%) believing it was ‘wrong, but not a crime’ and a further one-in-seven accepting it as ‘just something that happens’ (12.6%).

Findings from NICS 2010/11 also estimate that 6.2% of people aged 16-64 have experienced at least one form of domestic violence and abuse, by a family member (other than a partner), since age 16, with women (7.7%) displaying a higher prevalence rate than men (4.5%).

NICS 2010/11 results also indicate that 2.6% of adults were victims of domestic violence and abuse by a family member within the last three years, with no significant difference in the estimated rates for women (3.2%) and men (1.9%).

NICS 2010/11 results show that parents (56.6%) were most likely, with step- parents (3.4%) and children (4.9%) least likely, to be identified by victims as the perpetrator(s) of their ‘worst’ incident of family abuse.

When partner and family abuse are combined, NICS 2010/11 results estimate that, overall, around one-in-five adults (19.0%) had experienced some form of domestic violence and abuse since the age of 16, a proportion that drops to 7.0% within the last 3 years.

For women, the risk of partner abuse (26.6%), and any domestic abuse (partner or family; 30.8%), was at its highest among single adults with children who displayed prevalence rates significantly above the respective NICS 2010/11 averages of 6.9% and 9.2%.

Findings indicate that around two-fifths of respondents (38.2% in NICS 2010/11) believed that the government and other agencies are doing ‘too little’ about domestic violence, a rate almost twice that of those who think ‘enough’ is being done (21.1%).

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Stats_01.indd 155 03/06/2015 11:23 Map 13: Deprivation - Income Deprivation Affecting Older People (IDOP) Rank Income Deprivation Affecting Older People

Derry City and Strabane District Council

Derry Strabane

Please see overleaf for full list of related SOAs.

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Stats_01.indd 156 03/06/2015 11:23 NIMDM NIMDM SOA IDOP Rank SOA IDOP Rank Rank Rank Creggan Central 1 3 10 Carn Hill 1 92 164 East 6 12 The Diamond 95 26 Shantallow West 2 8 25 Glenderg 108 126 Creggan South 20 37 Crevagh 2 111 35 Ballycolman 22 61 Dunnamanagh 114 170 Culmore 4 23 149 Castlederg 125 97 Westland 24 46 Foyle Springs 2 128 137 Brandywell 29 44 West 1 132 254 Shantallow West 1 32 29 Shantallow West 3 134 151 Culmore 2 37 39 Claudy 1 145 364 Creggan Central 2 52 49 Enagh 1 148 110 Carn Hill 2 54 84 Clare 153 197 Culmore 3 55 147 Altnagelvin 1 159 88 Beechwood 60 125 Newtownstewart 163 134 Strand 1 61 28 Ebrington 2 164 86 Shantallow East 65 45 Rosemount 167 104 Crevagh 3 71 132 Springtown 1 171 123 Clondermot 1 87 58 Victoria 176 101 West 2 89 153 Sion Mills 178 141

890 SOAs in NI. 1 = most deprived, 890 least deprived

Source: NISRA, Demography and Methodology Branch

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Stats_01.indd 157 03/06/2015 11:23 Older People Pension Income Series Bulletin Northern Ireland 2012/13 Published: 21st January 2015

Summary of main results

Income trends Pensioner units (all pensioner couples and single pensioners) in Northern Ireland received on average £435 per week in gross income in 2012/13. This was an increase of 10 per cent from 2011/12. Approximately half of this total (£215) was sourced from state benefits. Overall pensioner income has risen 10 per cent since 2003/04.

Pensioner couples median net income After Housing Costs has increased since 2003/04 while that of single pensioners has decreased. In 2012/13 median net weekly income After Housing Costs for pensioner couples in Northern Ireland was £391. In real terms this represents an 11 per cent increase from 2003/04 levels. For single pensioners the median net weekly income After Housing Costs for pensioner couples in Northern Ireland was £180. This represents an 8 per cent decrease in real terms from the 2003/04 levels.

Pensioner units where the head is 75 years old or over had a median net income of £208 After Housing Costs in 2012/13. This is £101 (almost a third) lower than that received by pensioner units where the head is under 75 years old (£309).

A three year average of weekly gross income for pensioner couples shows that in 2010/13 Northern Ireland was the second lowest ranking region for gross income (£583) in the United Kingdom; this compared to Wales (£564), Scotland (£646), England (£660) and the United Kingdom average (£651). Single pensioners had the lowest gross weekly income (£272) of all regions in the United Kingdom; this compares to Wales (£287), Scotland (£291), England (£317) and the United Kingdom average (£312).

In 2010/13, pensioner couples in Northern Ireland had the highest weekly benefit income (£242) of all regions in the United Kingdom, £13 per week higher than the United Kingdom average (£229). Single pensioners in Northern Ireland had the second highest benefit income (£188) of all regions in the United Kingdom, £3 higher than the United Kingdom average (£185). Single pensioners in Wales had the highest benefit income (£192).

Income sources Ninety-eight per cent of all pensioner units for the three year period 2010/13 were in receipt of state pension, 3 percentage points higher than in 2003/06.

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Stats_01.indd 158 03/06/2015 11:23 In 2010/13, 31 per cent of pensioner units were in receipt of disability benefits and 14 per cent were in receipt of earnings from employment.

Almost a third (31 per cent) of all pensioner units during the period 2010/13 derived more than half of their gross income from private sources. This is 5 percentage points higher than in 2003/06.

Distribution of pensioners’ incomes The highest growth rate for median net incomes After Housing Costs between 2003/06 and 2010/13 was observed for pensioner couples in the top fifth of the income distribution. These pensioner couples had incomes four times greater than those couples in the bottom fifth.

Older pensioners were more likely to be in the bottom of the income distribution. Forty seven per cent of pensioner couples where the head is aged 75 or over are in the bottom two fifths, compared to 38 per cent of pensioners where the head is aged under 75 when housing costs were taken into account. In 2010/13 single male pensioners were more likely to be in the top fifth of the income distribution than single female pensioners (27 per cent and 18 per cent After Housing Costs respectively).

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Stats_01.indd 159 03/06/2015 11:23 Children Child and working-age poverty in Northern Ireland over the next decade: an update,

IFS Briefing Note BN154, Sept 2014. OFMDFM

The UK government has ambitious, legally-binding targets to reduce child poverty by 2020–21. To hit these targets, it must reduce the proportion of children living in households with less than 60% of median income to below 10% (a measure of relative low income) and the proportion of children living in households with less than 60% of 2010–11 median income to below 5% (a measure of absolute low income).

We now expect child poverty in Northern Ireland to increase from 20.5% in 2012–13 to by 21.8% by 2015–16 and 26.0% by 2020–21 using the headline relative low-income measure and from 22.0% to 25.3% by 2015–16 and 29.3% by 2020–21 using the headline absolute low-income measure.

• Over the period as a whole, increases in child poverty in the UK overall are projected to be somewhat smaller than those in Northern Ireland, and the timing of the increases is different. Up to 2015–16, child poverty increases quickly in the UK as a whole, from 17.4% to 21.0% (an increase of 500,000 children) using the relative low-income measure and from 19.5% to 23.4% (an increase of 600,000 children) using the absolute low-income measure. Thereafter, the relative child poverty rate remains fairly constant. The absolute low-income measure increases by 1.1ppts between 2015–16 and 2020–21.

• This difference in the timing of poverty changes between Northern Ireland and Great Britain likely arises because of the delays to the implementation of certain poverty-increasing changes to benefits in Northern Ireland, resulting from the lack of political consensus over the Welfare Reform Bill (2010).

We now project that working-age non-parent poverty in Northern Ireland will increase by 7.6ppts between 2012–13 and 2020–21 according to the relative low- income measure and by 7.8ppts according to the absolute low-income measure. Again, the equivalent figures for the UK are significantly smaller: over the same period, we project an increase of 1.7ppts or 700,000 individuals according to the relative low-income measure and an increase of 2.4ppts or 900,000 individuals according to the absolute low-income measure. This difference is likely due to employment growth being forecast to be weaker in Northern Ireland than in other parts of the UK, most notably London and the East and South-East of England.

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Stats_01.indd 160 03/06/2015 11:23 Table 28: IFS Briefing Note BN154, Sept 2014. OFMDFM

Relative poverty

% of children % of working-age non-parents

UK NI UK NI 2012–13 (actual) 17.4 20.5 14.1 18.3 2013–14 19.7 21.8 15.3 19.6 2014–15 20.3 21.6 15.3 19.9 2015–16 21.0 21.8 15.5 21.1 2016–17 20.7 22.5 15.2 21.3 2017–18 20.4 22.5 15.1 22.5 2020–21 20.9 26.0 15.8 25.9

Absolute poverty

% of children % of working-age non-parents

UK NI UK NI 2012–13 (actual) 19.5 22.0 14.9 20.1 2013–14 22.8 23.9 16.8 23.5 2014–15 23.2 24.8 16.7 23.3 2015–16 23.4 25.3 16.8 23.7 2016–17 23.1 26.3 16.7 23.4 2017–18 23.2 26.4 16.6 24.6 2020–21 24.5 29.3 17.3 27.9

Note: Relative poverty line is 60% of contemporaneous median before-housing-costs (BHC) income. Absolute poverty line is 60% of 2010–11 BHC median income in real terms. Source: Authors’ calculations based on Family Resources Survey, 2012–13, using the IFS tax and benefit microsimulation model, TAXBEN, and assumptions specified in the text.

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Stats_01.indd 161 03/06/2015 11:23 Health Sub-Regional Data, DHSSPS

A comprehensive report on Health Inequalities was published in March 2015 by DHSSPS. The relevant section for DCSDC area is reproduced overleaf.

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