Annex A

First revision of the Hamburg Climate Plan

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Contents

A. Rationale ...... 2

B. Introduction ...... 2

C. Climate report for Hamburg ...... 6 1. Developing the framework conditions ...... 6 1.1 Climate change worldwide and in Hamburg ...... 6 1.2 National and international climate policy: significance for Hamburg ...... 7 1.3 Consumption account 2017 ...... 9 1.4 Bottom-up accounting 2018 ...... 11

D. Further development of the climate strategy ...... 13 1. Further development of Hamburg's climate goals ...... 13 1.1 Guiding principle ...... 13 1.2 Revision of the 2015 Climate Plan: higher CO2 reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 ...... 14 1.3 Sector-specific targets 2030 ...... 16 2. Strategic points for achieving the climate goals ...... 17 2.1 Four transformation paths ...... 17 2.2 Transformation Path for Heat Transition including Building Efficiency 21 2.3 Mobility Transition Transformation Path ...... 28 2.4 Economy Transformation Path...... 42 2.5 Climate Adaptation Transformation Path ...... 48 3. Cross-sectoral approach ...... 53 3.1 Environmentally-compatible urban development ...... 54 3.2 The city as a role model ...... 56 3.3 Climate-friendly society ...... 59

E. Budgetary implications ...... 61

F. Annexes ...... 63

1 A. Rationale As planned, with the first revision of the Hamburg Climate Plan, the Senate is further developing the content and methods of the Hamburg Climate Plan from December 20151 and is setting new climate targets for Hamburg in the light of current developments.

With this revision of the Hamburg Climate Plan, the Senate also informs the Hamburg Parliament on the development of the framework conditions for Hamburg and the targets in the Hamburg Climate Plan that have already been achieved.

B. Introduction Climate change mitigation through a rapid and wide-ranging reduction of climate- damaging emissions caused by human beings is one of today's most important tasks globally. Every effort must therefore be made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to protect people from the consequences of major changes in the climate. With its climate plan, Hamburg is planning to initiate the necessary measures over the coming years so that citizens can continue to live in a city that is worth living in, economically successful and affordable, a large metropolis that makes its contribution to managing climate change. The climate plan is also aimed at pressing ahead with the necessary adaptation process in order to prepare the city for the impacts of climate change.

The Hamburg Senate is pursuing a climate policy not just as an aim in itself. Both the rapid and wide-ranging reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and adapting the city to the climate changes which can already be detected, is a key task in the interests of Hamburg's citizens including future generations. The measures in the climate plan will enable us to make sure that the quality of life, human health and safety in our city, economic prosperity and political stability are also guaranteed in the future. This makes climate change mitigation and climate adaptation priority challenges for Hamburg and the Hamburg Senate.

It is clear that the transformation process to overcome an economic and social model based on fossil resources will cause considerable changes as well as burdens and costs. We will ensure that this process is implemented in a socially fair manner. For all the measures there is a need to ensure that no one comes under too much strain, and objectives such as affordable housing are not put at risk. Hamburg, like all local authorities and states, will not be able to bear the envisaged financial challenges but will be reliant on support from the Federal Government.

It must be remembered that, both on an international scale and from an individual viewpoint, the higher the income and wealth, the greater the average greenhouse gas emissions.

1 Climate Plan 08.12.2015 (Parliamentary document 21/2521)

2 For reasons of equitable distribution and the required acceptance, it is therefore very important that the costs associated with the necessary climate measures must be distributed in accordance with economic capacity. On the other hand, it is equally clear that the climate policy transformation process offers quite significant innovation and value creation prospects. As an innovative business and science location, Hamburg has an opportunity here – including on the international stage – because industrially manufactured products such as steel, copper and aluminium are already produced here with a much better CO2 footprint than in other parts of the world. In a city like Hamburg in particular, neglecting climate protection can cause huge additional problems in the future, whereas a committed and ambitious approach will result in increased competitiveness and economic strength, including with a view to future markets.

Climate change mitigation and climate adaptation are challenges with a global dimension. Although resolute action locally can only make a relatively small contribution on a global scale, at the same time the per capita emissions in the metropolitan regions, especially in the industrialised countries, lie considerably above the global average. Metropolitan areas like Hamburg therefore have a particular responsibility. Over the past few years Hamburg has therefore signed a number of international agreements such as the Chicago Climate Charter and the platform of the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance. Under these agreements the signatory cities commit to the relevant national climate change objectives, the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and a proactive role within their own scope for action.

A successful transformation process in metropolitan regions like Hamburg will work as a positive model in order to prove the technical, economic and social feasibility of decarbonisation, and to illustrate that the benefit of resolute action significantly outweigh the costs.

In view of this, the Senate is undertaking active climate change mitigation and adopting the necessary measures in order to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions produced in Hamburg, quickly and comprehensively. At the same time, Hamburg will be developed into a climate-adapted and climate-friendly city, protected from the impacts of climate change but at the same time retaining its quality of life.

Both in Hamburg and throughout Germany, joint efforts are required in order to reach ambitious climate goals. The challenge is on a scale that requires the cooperation of all stakeholders. We therefore need a broad social consensus for climate change mitigation which runs through all levels of our state and all sectors of the economy. Because it is only with such wide social agreement that we can succeed in taking all players on the journey to climate protection and climate adaptation and in alleviating social hardship.

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In 2007 Hamburg resolved its first Climate Action Plan and introduced a range of measures for climate change mitigation based on this. Following this, the Senate adopted the Climate Master Plan in 2013. In December 2015 the Senate adopted the Hamburg Climate Plan which combined the findings and challenges of climate change mitigation and those of adaptation to the effects of climate change.

This first revision of the Hamburg Climate Plan further develops the goals and the portfolio of measures. It also presents the status of activities in Hamburg and the changes to the framework conditions.

The revision to the Climate Plan is divided into two parts. The chapter, “Climate report for Hamburg”, presents the current development in Hamburg's CO2 emissions based on the 2017 consumption account by the Statistikamt Nord (northern statistics office). The current implementation status of the goals agreed in the 2015 Climate Plan are also presented.

The chapter, “Further development of the climate strategy”, explains how the Hamburg Senate plans to further develop its activities in the fields of climate change mitigation and climate adaptation over the next few years.

In the 2015 Climate Plan, the Senate undertook to halve the CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to the 1990 base year, and to reduce them by at least 80 per cent by 2050.

In the light of current findings on the global development of climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, these goals are no longer adequate. The Senate therefore believes it necessary to revise the voluntary commitment from 2015. In this it is guided by the goals adopted by the German Federal Government at national level to reach the 1.5 °C target. The Senate is therefore setting the following new CO2 reduction targets: Hamburg will reduce CO2 emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 compared to the 1990 base year. By 2050 the city aims to reduce emissions by at least 95 percent in order to achieve climate neutrality.

Based on these across-the-board voluntary commitments, with the revision of the Climate Plan, the Senate is setting out additional sector-specific targets and charging the sectoral ministries with implementing the necessary measures. Regular controlling of all ministries will ensure that, if the targets are not met, suitable readjustment measures will be taken. It should be noted that, with a long- term process, the desired CO2 reduction cannot at present be predicted with certainty for all measures. The effectiveness of the measures also requires to be constantly monitored and readjusted if necessary. Lastly, further technical progress, research findings, and scaling of what are initially only pilot projects or those started on a small scale will mean that additional effects may arise which cannot be specified at present.

4 Added to this are the climate change mitigation measures agreed by the Federal Government whose impact on Hamburg cannot be assessed at present.

The Senate will therefore constantly update and develop the relevant target values and measures as part of the revision of the Climate Plan.

The four sectors which the city identifies as the originators of emissions are industry, trade, commerce and services (TCS), private households (PHH) and transport. The table below shows the reduction targets for each of these sectors:

CO2 CO2 As at Target reduction reduction Sector 1990 2030 (in 1,000 t) (in 1,000 t) requirement requirement 1990-2030 1990-2030 (in 1,000 t) (in %) PHH 4,823 1,599 3,224 -66.9

TCS 4,537 1,477 3,060 -67.4

Industry 5,473 2,991 2,482 -45.4

Transport 5,872 3,251 2,621 -44.6

Total 20,705 9,318 11,387 -55.0

Table 1: Sectoral reduction targets, based on the Wuppertal Institut Scenario, 2017. Transformation paths have been developed in order to achieve the climate goals specified in this revision, including the sectoral goals. These transformation paths combine the infrastructure measures with the necessary adaptations to the legal framework and additional funding instruments. In order to create a legal basis for the climate policy goals and instruments as well as further important regulatory provisions, a draft of a new Hamburg Climate Protection Act will be sent to the Hamburg Parliament. This draft legislation will aim to e.g. place the Climate Plan itself on a legal basis and create a regulatory framework.

The measures required to achieve the CO2 reduction targets will be described in the Transformation Paths of Heat Transition including Building Efficiency, Mobility Transition, and Economy. In addition, the Climate Adaptation Transformation Path describes the process for developing and implementing the measures for ensuring quality of life, the operational capability of the urban infrastructure, and the avoidance of climate-related damage.

Section D 2 describes how the transformation paths are derived from the sectoral climate goals. The packages of measures for the transformation paths are presented in Annexes 2-5.

5 There are numerous interdependencies between the different transformation paths. Interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral efforts are required in order to exploit synergies and avoid conflicts. It is therefore crucial that Hamburg achieves its climate goals across the board. Irrespective of the responsibility of the individual sectors, the Senate carries overall responsibility for achieving the goals defined in the Climate Plan. The Senate therefore aims to win over all the relevant stakeholders from both the public and private sectors and from civil society for appropriate forms of cooperation. An explanation of how this integrated working method is to be implemented is given after the description of the transformation paths.

C. Climate report for Hamburg

1. Developing the framework conditions

1.1 Climate change worldwide and in Hamburg The average global temperature has already risen by around 1 °C. This rise in temperature is almost entirely due to the greenhouse gas emissions produced by human beings. The underlying rise in the concentration of various greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, is primarily due to the use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas.

One important finding of the IPCC special report2 is that the ability of human and natural systems to adapt with a 1.5 °C global warming is disproportionately higher than with a 2 °C rise in temperature. For rising sea levels in particular, a slower rise offers greater opportunity for human and ecological systems to adapt. The rate of warming is also particularly important from the point of view of tipping points. These are the points at which large systems such as the Amazon rainforest or the ice sheets can change their state abruptly and irreversibly.

The effects of climate change are now to be felt in Hamburg and will increase in future. In the period from 1881 to 2013 there was a recorded rise in average temperature of approx. 1.4 °C for the metropolitan region.3 The number of hot days in summer and tropical nights is increasing, particularly in the inner city.4

2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up as an intergovernmental institution in November 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The role of the IPCC is to summarise the status of scientific research on climate change for political decision makers with the aim of providing a basis for science-based decision-making. The Special Report from October 2018 can be found at https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf. 3 Von Storch, Hans; Insa Meinke; Martin Claußen (Eds.): Hamburger Klimabericht. Wissen über Klima, Klimawandel und Auswirkungen in Hamburg und Norddeutschland, 2018. (What do we know about climate, climate change and its effects in Hamburg and Northern Germany?) 4 Berichte des Deutschen Wetterdienstes, Volume 247. Trusilova, Kristina; Riecke, Wolfgang: Klimauntersuchung für die Metropolregion Hamburg zur Entwicklung verschiedener meteorologischer Parameter bis zum Jahr 2050, 2015.

6 Depending on the greenhouse gas emissions, the average annual temperature in Hamburg could rise by 1-5 °C by the end of the century.5 As a result, such things as increases in winter precipitation are to be expected by the end of the century. Climate change will also result in more frequent heavy rainfall events and therefore more frequent and severe inland flooding.

As a waterside metropolis, Hamburg will also be confronted by the effects of rising sea levels. Over the period 1981-2019 at the Cuxhaven Steubenhöft tide gauge in the German Bight, a rise of approx. 20 cm per hundred years has already been measured.6 The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere7 in a Changing Climate (SROCC)8 forecasts a significant global rise in sea level for a "business as usual" emission scenario. This would increase the risk of both storm surges and current-controlled sediment transport. This places particular demands on flood protection and future sediment management. Added to this, the brackish water zone, the zone of mixed saltwater and freshwater, is moving upstream.

Hamburg is therefore steeling itself for the now unavoidable consequences of climate change. It is developing a monitoring system to document the consequences of climate change and to evaluate the effectiveness of the adaptation measures taken by the city. In the long term this should help with managing these adaptation measures and enable statements as to whether 9 Hamburg has made adequate provision for the consequences of climate change.

1.2 National and international climate policy: significance for Hamburg Towns and cities are already producing up to 80 per cent of global greenhouse gases. The population in urban areas will continue to grow in the coming years and so will the consumption of energy and other resources. Cities, on the other hand, can use resources more efficiently due to people living together, and new technologies such as e-mobility can be implemented more easily than in rural regions. At the same time cities are also affected by the consequences of climate change. In view of this, city states like Hamburg have a key role to play in achieving the international climate change objectives.

In its efforts for climate change mitigation, Hamburg is subject to the framework defined by the German Federal Government and the European Union.

5 www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de 6 Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) 2019, https://www.bsh.de/DE/DATEN/Wasserstand_Nordsee/Meeresspiegelschwankungen/meeresspiege lschwankungen_node.html. 7 Sheets of ice or snow (= solid water) 8 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) 2019, https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf 9 The first impact indicators for Hamburg have been available since mid-2017. The first response indicators should be available online by the beginning of 2020.

7 International obligations – the Paris Climate Agreement The first internationally binding climate agreement was adopted in Paris in December 2015. The 197 signatories committed to combat the effects of climate change and to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases to a point where global warming can be limited to less than 2 °C and preferably 1.5 °C. Only with the greatest efforts is it still possible to limit the consequences of climate change. Every five years the states check whether their measures are adequate to achieve these goals. They are obliged to provide a report on this to the public.

Importance of EU climate policy for Germany The European Union (EU) made a commitment to the international community to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990. Around half of these emissions are recorded and reduced by the European Emissions Trading Scheme. This involves large industrial and energy generating plants, in Hamburg especially the large companies in the primary materials industry for steel, copper and aluminium. These companies already operate with a high level of resource and energy efficiency by international standards, so securing their ability to compete and strengthening their innovation capability are in the interests of climate protection.

The other half of greenhouse gas emissions are caused by transport, agriculture, energy demand for buildings and small industrial plants. The EU has obliged its member states to contribute to reducing these emissions, in line with their economic capacity. Accordingly, Germany must reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases by 14 per cent by 2020 and by a total of 38 per cent by 2030 in comparison to 2005. Germany is thus obliged via the EU to contribute to reaching the international objectives. If Germany does not meet these obligations, it could be liable for compensation payments of billions.

Germany's climate change objectives

Germany has been able to reduce its CO2 emissions by 27.5 per cent by 2017 in 10 11 comparison to 1990. Projections for 2018 forecast a reduction of 30.8 per cent.

Climate change objectives for 2020