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Hong Leong Bank Berhad September 25, 2018 Global Markets Research Fixed Income Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot UST US Treasuries Tenure Closing (%) Chg (bps) US Treasuries were weaker with pullbacks seen across the 2-yr UST 2.82 2 curve as the FOMC meeting draws near. Overall benchmark 5-yr UST 2.97 2 yields were 2-3bps higher from prior day’s close with the 2Y 10-yr UST 3.09 3 ending 2bps higher at 2.82% levels whilst the much-watched 30-yr UST 3.23 3 10Y rose 3bps to 3.09%. Treasury’s $37b of 2Y auction notched a lower BTC ratio of 2.44x since December 2016 (compare with MGS GII* 2.82x average for past 6 auctions); averaging 2.829%. Worries over a global trade spat may be on the back-burner as attention Tenure Closing (%) Chg (bps) Closing (%) Chg (bps) shifts to the upcoming FOMC meeting on 27th September as the 3-yr 3.61 0 3.48 0 probability of a rate hike stands at 98%. The impact on UST’s 5-yr 3.75 0 3.88 0 will be watched closely as strategists have mixed views on the 7-yr 3.98 3 4.03 -1 direction of yields going forward. Nevertheless pension funds 10-yr 4.09 -1 4.16 0 and lifers demand for long-term debt are expected to keep the 15-yr 4.53 3 4.62 0 long-end anchored. 20-yr 4.69 0 4.76 0 30-yr 4.90 0 4.97 0 * Market indicative levels MGS/GII Trading volume in Govvies plunged to RM1.65b yesterday with MYR IRS Levels some interest seen across the shorter off-the-runs. Both IRS Closing (%) Chg (bps) offshore and onshore players were mostly sidelined ahead of 1-yr 3.71 0 the FOMC rate decision tomorrow night (local time). Overall 3-yr 3.77 0 benchmark yields were generally 0-3bps higher save for the 7Y 5-yr 3.86 0 GII bond. The 7Y MGS 3/25 rose almost 3bps at 3.98% levels 7-yr 3.99 0 on tepid volume whilst the 10Y MGS 6/28 edged 1bps higher at 10-yr 4.18 0 4.09%. GII trades fell to 12% of total trades. The ongoing efforts Source : Bloomberg taken by the present government to address budget deficits and improve overall economy is seen positive in the medium-to-long term prospects for the country despite some setback due to intermittent EM outflows. Upcoming Government Bond Tender Nil Corp Bonds/Sukuk Sep Corporate bonds/Sukuk saw solid investor interest as volume maintained at RM741m with focus mainly on the AAA-segment followed by both GG and AA-part of the curve encompassing 36 different bonds compared to prior trading day’s 30. Overall yields ended lower with many 10-20Y papers exchanging hands. The Govt-guaranteed DANA 23-24’s and ended 1-5bps lower between 4.04-18% levels whist both the long DANA 5/37 and PRASA 3/38 closed within 1bps between 4.85-88% compared to previous-done levels. The AAA-rated shorter- tenured DANGA and RANTAU 20’s saw RM115m nominal amount traded between 0-1bps lower at 4.04% levels. In the AA-space; energy bonds eg Southern Power 24-32’s, SPR Energy 25-34’s, SEB 8/35 and MALAKOFF 12/18 resumed to fall on the radar of investors on lower yields. 1 FIXED INCOME September 25, 2018 Daily Trades : Government Bonds Securities Closing Vol Previous Previous Chg YTM (RM mil) YTM Trade Date (bp) (dd/mm/yyyy) MGS 09/18 3.337 260 3.518 21/09/2018 -18 MGS 03/19 3.150 41 3.201 20/09/2018 -5 MGS 11/19 3.421 160 3.395 21/09/2018 3 MGS 03/20 3.478 102 3.471 21/09/2018 1 MGS 07/20 3.503 1 3.445 18/09/2018 6 MGS 10/20 3.528 3 3.496 19/09/2018 3 MGS 07/21 3.561 132 3.587 21/09/2018 -3 MGS 09/21 3.638 11 3.627 21/09/2018 1 MGS 11/21 3.609 173 3.605 21/09/2018 0 MGS 03/22 3.602 15 3.643 20/09/2018 -4 MGS 09/22 3.768 23 3.754 21/09/2018 1 MGS 04/23 3.742 67 3.747 21/09/2018 0 MGS 08/23 3.849 10 3.833 21/09/2018 2 MGS 07/24 3.962 79 3.956 21/09/2018 1 MGS 09/24 3.965 1 3.974 21/09/2018 -1 MGS 03/25 3.977 24 3.953 21/09/2018 2 MGS 09/25 4.068 3 4.045 21/09/2018 2 MGS 11/26 4.176 9 4.169 21/09/2018 1 MGS 11/27 4.151 58 4.152 21/09/2018 0 MGS 06/28 4.091 20 4.078 21/09/2018 1 MGS 04/30 4.458 1 4.478 21/09/2018 -2 MGS 04/33 4.554 70 4.544 21/09/2018 1 MGS 11/33 4.531 130 4.499 21/09/2018 3 MGS 05/35 4.716 1 4.713 21/09/2018 0 MGS 04/37 4.705 2 4.728 20/09/2018 -2 MGS 07/48 4.905 60 4.901 21/09/2018 0 GII 04/22 3.711 92 3.765 21/09/2018 -5 GII 08/25 4.027 40 4.037 21/09/2018 -1 GII 10/28 4.161 60 4.162 21/09/2018 0 1648 Daily Trades: Corp Bonds / Sukuk Securities Maturity Rating Closing Vol Previous Previous Chg Spread (dd/mm/y YTM (RM mil) YTM Trade Date (bp) Against yyy) (dd/mm/yyyy) MGS* DanaInfra Nasional Berhad 05/23 GG 4.038 80 4.051 19/09/2018 -1 28 DanaInfra Nasional Berhad 05/24 GG 4.119 45 4.147 19/09/2018 -3 21 Prasarana Malaysia Berhad 09/24 GG 4.188 20 4.341 05/12/2017 -15 28 DanaInfra Nasional Berhad 11/24 GG 4.180 10 4.231 19/07/2018 -5 27 DanaInfra Nasional Berhad 05/37 GG 4.849 15 4.854 06/09/2018 0 15 Prasarana Malaysia Berhad 03/38 GG 4.881 10 4.868 05/09/2018 1 18 Cagamas Berhad 10/19 AAA 3.870 10 4.000 03/04/2018 -13 51 Danga Capital Berhad 04/20 AAA 4.038 20 4.045 13/09/2018 -1 55 Rantau Abang Capital Berhad 12/20 AAA 4.041 95 4.044 14/09/2018 0 56 Cagamas Berhad 04/21 AAA 4.020 10 4.220 24/04/2018 -20 41 GENM Capital Berhad 07/23 AAA 4.829 40 4.797 18/09/2018 3 107 Telekom Malaysia Berhad 08/23 AAA 4.284 20 4.288 04/09/2018 0 53 Danga Capital Berhad 09/27 AAA 4.513 80 4.650 19/07/2018 -14 42 Telekom Malaysia Berhad 05/28 AAA 4.559 30 4.568 30/08/2018 -1 47 Danga Capital Berhad 01/30 AAA 4.636 10 4.631 06/09/2018 0 54 Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Berhad 03/32 AAA 4.858 10 4.924 09/08/2018 -7 36 Tenaga Nasional Berhad 08/32 AAA 4.705 5 4.711 04/09/2018 -1 20 Projek Lebuhraya Usahasama Berhad 01/33 AAA 4.828 10 4.818 27/08/2018 1 33 Tenaga Nasional Berhad 08/33 AAA 4.735 20 4.750 21/09/2018 -1 23 Sabah Development Bank Berhad 07/20 AA1 4.798 20 4.731 29/08/2018 7 131 Public Islamic Bank Berhad 06/24 AA1 4.145 10 4.155 10/08/2018 -1 24 Sarawak Energy Berhad 08/35 AA1 5.040 30 5.039 13/09/2018 0 54 CIMB Islamic Bank Berhad 09/24 AA+ 4.396 5 5.051 21/08/2018 -66 49 Fortune Premiere Sdn Berhad 03/23 AA 4.778 10 4.789 06/08/2018 -1 108 Malakoff Power Berhad 12/18 AA- 4.077 10 4.157 24/08/2018 -8 71 Bumitama Agri Ltd 03/19 AA3 4.327 10 4.322 28/08/2018 0 96 SPR Energy (M) Sdn Berhad 07/25 AA3 4.890 10 4.968 25/07/2018 -8 93 SPR Energy (M) Sdn Berhad 07/33 AA3 5.338 15 5.339 19/09/2018 0 84 SPR Energy (M) Sdn Berhad 07/34 AA3 5.421 15 5.530 31/07/2018 -11 92 TSH Sukuk Ijarah Sdn Berhad 03/22 AA- 4.719 10 4.881 20/03/2018 -16 102 Southern Power Generation Sdn Berhad 10/24 AA- 4.608 10 4.619 19/09/2018 -1 70 Southern Power Generation Sdn Berhad 04/27 AA- 4.742 10 4.879 16/07/2018 -14 65 Southern Power Generation Sdn Berhad 10/32 AA- 4.919 10 5.139 16/07/2018 -22 42 Affin Bank Berhad 02/27 A1 4.900 10 4.855 07/08/2018 4 83 AMMB Holdings Berhad 03/27 A1 4.826 6 4.931 03/07/2018 -11 76 Affin Bank Berhad 09/27 A1 4.960 10 4.700 30/08/2018 26 86 741 *spread against nearest indicative tenured MGS (Source : BPAM) 2 FIXED INCOME September 25, 2018 Market/Corporate News: What’s Brewing A supertanker carrying the first crude oil cargo to a refinery being jointly built by Malaysia's Petronas and oil giant Saudi Aramco has arrived at Pengerang, as the two companies enter the commissioning and testing phase at the plant.
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