Malaysia Strategy Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report
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Malaysia Market Focus Malaysia Strategy Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 3 May 2018 Positioning for post GE KLCI : 1,852.03 Election overhang to ease post GE14 as investors focus on Analyst fundamentals Bernard CHING +603 2604 3918 Election expected to be fiercely contested with status quo being the [email protected] base case while the worst case is a hung parliament leading to Malaysian Research Team protracted uncertainty and risk aversion +603 2604 3333 [email protected] Laggards in mid- and small-cap space poised to re-rate given cheap valuation and return of risk appetite Market Key Data Maintain end-2018 KLCI target of 1,950; Top picks are MAY, CIMB, (%) EPS Gth Div Yield 2017A 6.5 3.4 HLBK, GAM, BAB, SAPE, SCGB, SKP, HIBI, UNI, WSC, GTB and YTB 2018F 9.8 3.2 8.0 Weak broader market due to election overhang. Despite the 2019F 3.4 FBMKLCI’s resilience (YTD: +3.9%), the broader market has been weak as (x) PE PB evidenced by the 15% YTD loss in the FBM Small Cap Index. This is partly 2017A 17.9 1.7 th driven by risk aversion ahead of the 14 General Election (GE14) on 9 May. 16.3 2018F 1.7 2019F 15.1 1.6 Positioning for post GE14 rebound. The market will remain volatile ahead of GE14 given a widely expected fierce contest between the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) and opposition coalition led by former PM Dr STOCKS Mahathir. Without predicting the election outcome, our base case assumes 12-mth that the status quo will be maintained which will see the election overhang Price Mkt Cap Target Performance (%) ease post GE14 as investors focus on fundamentals again. Against the RM US$m RM 3 mth 12 mth Rating backdrop of sustained economic growth, we expect the Malaysian equity Maybank 10.66 29,589 11.50 5.5 11.3 BUY market to resume its upward trajectory and reiterate our end-2018 KLCI CIMB Group 7.04 16,509 8.00 (2.9) 22.7 BUY target of 1,950. We believe laggard mid- and small-cap stocks will likely be HoldingsHong Leong 18.84 9,796 21.00 1.3 36.5 BUY re-rated given its attractive valuation (-1SD PB of 0.8x) and return of risk BankGamuda 5.11 3,198 6.70 (0.2) (3.0) BUY appetite among investors. In particular, the construction sector should be Bumi Armada 0.83 1,238 1.05 (1.8) 5.1 BUY re-rated following the recent correction as the implementation of major Sapura Energy 0.71 1,081 1.05 (6.0) (64.5) BUY projects such as ECRL, MRT 3 and HSR gets underway. Sunway 2.22 729 2.60 (13.3) 11.0 BUY Construction Key theme and top picks. (1) Cyclical recovery in loan growth and SKPGroup Resources 1.48 470 2.50 (24.5) 14.7 BUY interest-rate hikes. Maybank (MAY), CIMB and Hong Leong Bank (HLBK) BhdHibiscus 0.80 323 1.48 (18.4) 88.2 BUY are our top banking stock picks. (2) Cyclical global oil & gas capex recovery. UnisemPetroleum 1.78 332 2.60 (41.1) (46.6) BUY Sapura Energy (SAPE) is our new pick given its exposure to upstream WahBerhad Seong 1.39 273 1.90 (4.8) 56.2 BUY exploration and production activities both as an oil producer as well as a GlobetronicsCorp 4.25 309 6.50 (32.8) (21.7) BUY YongTechnology Tai Bhd 1.47 180 2.00 (3.3) (8.1) BUY service provider. Bumi Armada, Wah Seong and Hibiscus are our other Bhd picks. (3) Sustained E&E exports amid more favourable risk-reward Source: AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Finance L.P. following the recent correction. Besides SKP Resources (SKP), we added Closing price as of 2 May 2018 Unisem (UNI) and Globetronics (GTB). (4) Tourism benefiting from discretionary spending recovery and an influx of Chinese tourists. Yong Tai (YTB) remains our pick for this theme. Lastly, (5) the re-rating of construction sector post GE14 with Gamuda (GAM) and Sunway Construction (SCGB) being added to our top picks. Key risks. In the event there is a change in government post GE14, we believe there would be a selldown in the near term given policy uncertainty with the construction sector being the most affected. However, the worst- case scenario is a hung parliament where neither BN nor the Dr Mahathir- led opposition wins a majority, leading to protracted uncertainty and risk aversion. Other key risks to watch out for are trade wars between the US and its major trading partners which will impact exporters, particularly E&E players, and potentially faster-than-expected US interest rate normalisation. ed: CK / sa:WMT, PY, CS Market Focus Malaysia Strategy Market Review YTD sector performance (AllianceDBS universe) Amid external uncertainty over trade wars and a faster pace of Automotive rate normalisation in the US, the FBMKLCI has chalked up a Oil & Gas Banking flattish performance in Apr, mirroring the performance of the Glove MSCI ASEAN Index. Nevertheless, the FBMKLCI’s YTD gain of Utilities Plantation 3.9% still outpaced the performance of all other ASEAN-5 Healthcare Consumer markets particularly in US terms as the ringgit has Property strengthened by +2.3% against the greenback. Transport Construction REIT Telecommunication Despite the resilient performance of the benchmark FBMKLCI Gaming index, the broader Malaysian market has continued to be Building Materials Electronics th affected by dampened investor sentiment ahead of the 14 Media General Elections (GE14) on 9 May. YTD, the KLCI Small Cap Technology -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Index has dropped 15%. Source: AllianceDBS In terms of YTD sector performance, the automotive (+15.3%), oil & gas (+14.8%) and banking (+10.1%) sectors were the Market Outlook top three gainers. The performance of the automotive sector was largely driven by optimism post restructuring of UMW In the near term, the market will remain volatile ahead of Holdings while the oil & gas sector has been re-rated on the GE14. While blue chip stocks, particularly constituent stocks of back of rising oil prices. As for the banking sector, improving the FBMKLCI, have held up pretty well, mid- and small-cap earnings prospect amid lower credit cost and NIM expansion stocks have seen a wave of selldown ahead of GE14. The has been the key driver. On the other hand, electronics selldown has been so severe that the FBM Small Cap Index, manufacturing services (EMS) (-27.2%), media (-30.3%) and which represents the top 98% of Bursa Malaysia Main Market technology (-31.1%) sectors were the biggest losers YTD. The excluding the top 100 stocks, has seen its P/B valuation being EMS and technology sectors were dragged by global selldown de-rated to -1SD of 0.8x. of EMS and tech stocks, strengthening ringgit against the USD as well as concern of trade wars. As for the media sector, FBM Small Cap P/B band disappointing results amid a structural shift from traditional to 1.7 online advertising has been a major drag. 1.5 YTD performance of FBM KLCI, Small Cap and ACE indices 1.3 +1 S.D: 1.2x FBM KLCI FBM Small Cap FBM ACE 1.1 Mean: 10% 1.0x 4% 0.9 5% -1 S.D: 0.8x 0% 0.7 -5% 0.5 -10% Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 -15% -15% -20% Source: AllianceDBS, Bloomberg -25% -22% -30% Following several surprise election results in the US and 9-Jan 2-Jan Europe, investors are expected to be wary of GE14 which will 3-Apr 6-Feb 6-Mar 1-May 16-Jan 23-Jan 30-Jan 17-Apr 10-Apr 24-Apr 27-Feb 13-Feb 20-Feb 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar see a fierce contest between the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) Source: AllianceDBS, Bloomberg led by caretaker prime minister Najib Razak against the opposition parties led by former PM Dr Mahathir. The plot thickened further with the departure of the Islamic party PAS from the opposition coalition, leading to three-corner fights in many constituencies. While we do not have a prediction of the election results, our base-case stock selection is premised on a status quo with BN retaining a simple majority in parliamentary seats (BN won 133 seats in 13th General Election out of 222 Page 2 Market Focus Malaysia Strategy seats). In the event of a change in federal government, we believe there would be further selldown in the near term due FBMKLCI PE trend to policy uncertainty. However, the worst-case scenario is a KLCI P/E Average +1 SD -1 SD hung parliament where neither BN nor the Dr Mahathir-led P/E 18.00 opposition wins a majority, leaving PAS as the kingmaker to 17.50 negotiate for the formation of an unstable federal 17.00 16.8x government. This would lead to protracted risk aversion by 16.50 16.4x 16.00 investors, in our view. 15.9x 15.50 Results of 13th GE (parliamentary seats only) 15.00 14.50 BN PAS PKR DAP Total 14.00 Perlis 3 3 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-17 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Kedah 10 1 4 15 Kelantan 5 9 14 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, AllianceDBS Terengganu 4 4 8 Pulau Pinang 3 3 7 13 KLCI equity risk premium (earnings yield – risk-free rate) Perak 12 2 3 7 24 % Pahang 10 1 2 1 14 7.0 Selangor 5 4 9 4 22 6.0 Kuala Lumpur 2 4 5 11 5.0 Putrajaya 1 1 4.0 +1 SD:3.4 Negeri Sembilan 5 1 2 8 3.0 Mean: 2.6 2.0 Melaka 4 1 1 6 -1SD: 1.7 1.0 Johor 21 1 4 26 0.0 Labuan 1 1 Jul-09 Jul-14 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17 Oct-10 Oct-15 Apr-08 Apr-13 Apr-18 Sep-13 Sep-08 Feb-09 Feb-14 Dec-09 Dec-14 Aug-11 Aug-16 Nov-07 Nov-12 Nov-17 Mar-11 Mar-16 May-15 Sabah 22 1 2 25 May-10 Sarawak 25 1 5 31 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, AllianceDBS Total 133 21 30 38 222 Source: Election Commission 10-year MGS yield % We believe investor focus will be back on fundamentals post 5.0 GE14.