NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
FACTIONS IN NONDEMOCRACIES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY
Patrick Francois Francesco Trebbi Kairong Xiao
Working Paper 22775 http://www.nber.org/papers/w22775
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2016
The authors would like to thank Matilde Bombardini, Wei Cui, Chang Tai Hsieh, Ruixue Jia, Li Hao, Thorsten Rogall, and seminar participants at various institutions for their comments and suggestions. Francesco Trebbi gratefully acknowledges support by the Canadian Institute For Advanced Research and the Social Sciences and Humanites Research Council of Canada. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.
© 2016 by Patrick Francois, Francesco Trebbi, and Kairong Xiao. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Factions in Nondemocracies: Theory and Evidence from the Chinese Communist Party Patrick Francois, Francesco Trebbi, and Kairong Xiao NBER Working Paper No. 22775 October 2016 JEL No. P3,P48
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the factional arrangements and dynamics within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the governing political party of the People's Republic of China. Our empirical analysis ranges from the end of the Deng Xiaoping era to the current Xi Jinping presidency and covers the appointments of both national and provincial officials. We present a set of new empirical regularities within the CCP and a theoretical framework suited to model factional politics within single-party regimes.
Patrick Francois Kairong Xiao University of British Columbia Sauder School of Business 6000 Iona Dr. University of British Columbia Vancouver, B.C. Canada V6T 1L4 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC and CIFAR V6T 1Z2 Canada [email protected] [email protected]
Francesco Trebbi University of British Columbia 6000 Iona Drive Vancouver, BC V6T 1L4 Canada and CIFAR and also NBER [email protected] 1 Introduction
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Dbcb ( , p) XcsWussYs cssuYs i` gYUsurYgYht wctb tbY prYgcsY tbUt Despite the centrality of factions in Chinese politics, they are extremely di¢cult to observe in a systematic manner, especially in such an opaque political system.
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2 Institutional Background: the CCP
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3 Data
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4 CCP Factional Politics: Reduced Form Re- sults
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AifctVuri gYgVYrs (A')# UhX i` tbY AifctVuri DtUhXcha (iggcttYY gYgVYrs (A'D() EbYsY YYWts UrY rYpirtYX ch EUVfY 7YUXYrsbcp prYgcU UrY stUtcs- tcWUffy scahcWUht, VYtwYYh 4 pYrWYhtUaY pichts bcabYr ch tYrgs i` piwYr sWirY sbUrYs `ir tbY (P7( UhX UriuhX 2 pYrWYhtUaY pichts `ir tbY DbUhabUc 2Uha EbYsY YstcgUtYs UrY hit trcvcUf, Vut quctY `Ur `rig wchhYr-tUeY-Uff fYvYfs EbY fYUXYrsbcp prYgcU ch tbY piwYr sWirY WUh VY YUscfy iVsYrvYX ch tbY scgpfY tcgY sYrcYs pfits i` 1caurY iv) Anti-Corruption Campaign. &s ch tbY UffiWUtcih i` rYwUrXs ti Wi`UWtcih- Ufs tbriuab fYUXYrsbcp prYgcU, wY wiufX Ufsi YxpYWt YvcXYhWY i` `UWtcihUf VcUs ch tbY UXgchcstrUtcih i` puhcsbgYht HY bUvY fcgctYX systYgUtcW YvcXYhWY ch tbcs rYspYWt, Vut ct chtYrYstchafy pichts ch U XcrYWtcih WihscstYht wctb tbY fcgctYX fYUXYrsbcp prYgcU XcsWussYX Ut picht ccc) Ebcs hivYf YvcXYhWY WigYs `rig tbY `UWtcihUf UhUfyscs i` tbY ((A gYgVYrs bct Vy ArYscXYht Ic 5chpchas Uhtc-Wirruptcih WUgpUcah (chctcUtYX ch UhX stcff ihaicha Us i` ) & rYgUreUVfY `UWtcihUf VUfUhWY sYYgs ti VY prYsYht ch tbY UXgchcstrUtcih i` puhcsbgYht, wbYh fiiecha Ut tbY XYtUcfYX rYsugYs i` tbY si-WUffYX tcaYrs, U WiXY hUgY `ir bcab-rUhecha pUrty gYgVYrs UYWtYX Vy tbY puraY EUVfY sbiws tbUt Vitb (P7( UhX DbUhabUc 2Uha WUXrYs UppYUr rYprYsYhtYX ch tbY puraYX sUgpfY UhX, cgpirtUhtfy, Vitb `UWtcihs UrY rYprYsYhtYX ch sbUrYs pripirtcihUf ti tbYcr ivYrUff rYprYsYhtUtcih ch tbY uppYr YWbYfihs i` tbY ((A, UhX hit stUtcstcWUffy scahcWUhtfy bcabYr ir fiwYr EbY rYUXYr gUy biwYvYr hitcWY U fiwYr, Vut hit scahcWUht, rYprYsYhtUtcih i` DbUha- bUc 2Uha gYgVYrs, tbY `UWtcih gist fceYfy ti VY UssiWcUtYX wctb Ic (c` Ut Uff sYY DYWtcih ) v) Post-Deng era. 1chUffy, wY privcXY VrcY` YgpcrcWUf dustcWUtcih `ir iur `iWus ih tbY pist-)Yha YrU 8Ui QYXiha UhX )Yha IcUipcha bUvY VYYh i`tYh WbUrUWtYrcYX Us pifctcWUf striha gYh Vy gUhy iVsYrvYrs, Us tbYcr fYaYhXUry WUrYYrs ch tbY rYvifutcihUry YrU wih tbYg uftcgUtY Wihtrif ivYr tbY gcfctUry 4h
&s ippisYX ti fiw-fYvYf pifctcWcUhs, cYs, chvifvYX ch pYtty Wirruptcih EcaYrs XcrYWtfy bct Vy tbY Uhtc-Wirruptcih puraY bUvY chWfuXYX rYtcrYX A'D( gYgVYr Qbiu PihaeUha UhX rYtcrYX A' gYgVYr Iu (Uciu 7ches ti tbY (P7( wYrY YvcXYht ch iWcUf hYws rYfYUsYs Vy EbY AYipfYs )Ucfy wbcWb YxpfcWctfy schafYX iut spYWcW suVsYts i` tbcs `UWtcih, pUrtcWufUrfy "EbY DbUhxc 2Uha", iWcUfs fcheYX ti 7cha 5cbuU, U XcsarUWYX pritYa i` 3u 5chtUi bttp"wwwVVWWighYwsVfias- WbchU-Vfia- HY VucfX U Wirruptcih Xuggy chXcWUtir `ir wbYtbYr U pifctcWUfgcfctUry iWcUf cs fcstYX ch tbY puVfcW UhtcWirruptcih XUtUVUsY i` tbY (YhtrUf (iggcsscih `ir )csWcpfchY 4hspYWtcih UhX `rig (bchU1cfY EUVfY sbiws tbY Wriss-sYWtcih rYarYsscih i` Wirruptcih Xuggy ih `UWtcih UfcUtcih i` Uh iWcUf EbY sUgpfY chWfuXYs Uff tbY chXcvcXuUfs WivYrYX Vy (bchU GctUY wbi bUvY hit rYtcrYX ch tbY yYUr i` , tbY yYUr i` tb pUrty (iharYss HY XrippYX gcfctUry pYrsihhYf `rig tbY sUgpfY Us tbY WivYrUaY i` tbcs ariup cs rYfUtcvYfy fcgctYX ch (bchU GctUY
WihtrUst, suVsYquYht fYUXYrs, 5cUha QYgch, 3u 5chtUi, UhX Ic 5chpcha, UppYUr WUtYaircWUffy XcYrYht" WcvcfcUh iWYrs wbi risY tbriuab tbY pUrty bcYrUrWby rYfycha ih tbYcr UVcfcty UhX WihhYWtcihs Ebcs struWturUf VrYUe cs YvcXYht ch tbY XUtU FhXYrfycha tbY sygVifcW rYtcrYgYht i` )Yha ch ! !, wY XiWugYht struWturUf WbUhaYs ch tbY wbifY spYWtrug i` pifctcWUf YfctYs 1caurY sbiws tbY sbUrY i` piwYr sWirY Vy `UWtcihs ir ariups ch tbY (YhtrUf (iggcttYYs i` tbY ((A Aist-)Yha (bchU wcthYssYs U scahcWUht XYWfchY ch tbY chuYhWY i` tbY gcfctUry ariup, UhX U rcsY ch `UWtcihs suWb Us (P7( UhX DbUhabUc 2Uha 1caurY VrYUes Xiwh tbY piwYr sWirY Vy `iur WihstctuYhWcYs i` tbY (YhtrUf (iggcttYY" stUtY iraUhs, pUrty UppUrUtus, gcfctUry, UhX rYacihUf aivYrhgYhts EbY prY-)Yha YrU wUs rcXXYh wctb vifUtcfY sbc`ts UWriss WihstctuYhWcYs, wctb tbY gist sUfcYht YxUgpfY VYcha tbY (ufturUf CYvifutcih VYtwYYh ! UhX !, Xurcha wbcWb stUtY iraUhs UhX pUrty UppUrUtus wYrY vcrtuUffy pUrUfyYX 4h WihtrUst, tbY pist-)Yha YrU wcthYssYX tbY stUVcfcUtcih i` piwYr sbUrYs `ir YUWb WihstctuYhWy )YspctY tbY fUWe i` pifctcWUf rY`irg i`tYh UffYaYX Vy iutscXY iVsYrvYrs, tbY UVivY YvcXYhWY suaaYsts tbUt (bchYsY pifctcWs YvifvYX ti U hYw pbUsY ch wbcWb pifctcWUf strihagYh VYWUgY rYpfUWYX Vy `UWtcihUf pifctcWs U`tYr )Yha Ebcs cs tbY pYrciX wY `iWus ih
5 Model
3Uvcha priXuWYX U sYrcYs i` stUtcstcWUf rYaufUrctcYs pichtcha ch tbY XcrYWtcih i` U systYgUtcW rifY `ir `UWtcihUf UfcUtcih ch tbY iraUhcUtcih i` tbY ((A (UhX tbY (bchYsY stUtY girY ch aYhYrUf), wY hiw priWYYX wctb tbY WihstruWtcih i` U `irgUf tbYiry usY`uf ti uhXYrstUhXcha tbY chWYhtcvY struWturY Xrcvcha tbY XUtU ch tbY pist-)Yha YrU
5.1 The Hierarchy of Positions
EbYrY cs U L fYvYf bcYrUrWby i` fYUXYrsbcp pisctcihs, irXYrYX `rig tbY bcabYst fYvYf 1, ti tbY Vittig, L 0UWb fYvYf, `, i` tbY bcYrUrWby bUs U M(`)=2 fYUXYr- sbcp hiXYs 0UWb fYUXYrsbcp hiXY bUs U pUcr i` fYUXYrsbcp pisctcihs EbY twi pisctcihs Ut YUWb hiXY UrY irXYrYX (pisctcih UhX pisctcih ) EbY bcYrUrWby
&ppYhXcx 1caurY sbiws UXXctcihUf YvcXYhWY tbUt UaY fcgcts ih AifctVuri gYgVYrs UrY strcWtfy UhX systYgUtcWUffy Yh`irWYX ch tbY pist-)Yha YrU, UaUch UhitbYr scah i` VrYUe tiwUrX chstctutcihUf rYaufUrcUtcih
cs VrieYh up chti rYacihs, YUWb i` wbcWb hYsts U bcabYr hugVYr i` sgUffYr rY- acihs VYfiw ct 7YvYf 1, tbY tip fYvYf, bUs ihY hiXY UhX bYhWY twi pisctcihs# M(1) = 2 : 4t cs tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp hiXY `ir tbY Wiuhtry Us U wbifY (Wur- rYhtfy, ArYscXYht Ic 5chpcha UhX ArYgcYr 7c 6YqcUha) 7YvYf 2, tbY sYWihX fUyYr ch tbY bcYrUrWby, bUs M(2) > M (1) pisctcihs XcvcXYX up chti M(2) =2 , UhX si ih, wctb tbY hugVYr i` pisctcihs strcWtfy chWrYUscha Xiwh ti fYvYf L EbY hiXYs Ut tbY fiwYst fYvYf UrY tbY Yhtry fYUXYrsbcp pisctcihs, WirrYspihXcha ti tbY rst stYp ch U pifctcWUf fc`Y tbUt wY giXYf EcgY cs Wihtchuius 0UWb chXcvcXuUf pifctcWcUh XcYs (ir YxiaYhiusfy rY- tcrYs) wctb Uh chstUhtUhYius priVUVcfcty, , wbcWb Ufsi UWts Us tbY chstUhtUhYius XcsWiuht rUtY Fpih U pifctcWcUhs XYgcsY, bcs ir bYr pisctcih ipYhs up `ir rY- pfUWYgYht & pifctcWcUhs pisctcih Ufsi ipYhs up wbYh prigitYX ti U pisctcih UVivY, `rYYcha tbY WurrYht spit HY UssugY tbUt tbY iw utcfcty `rig VYcha ch iWY cs chWrYUscha ch tbY pisctcih wctbch tbY bcYrUrWby )YhitY Vy u(`) tbY chstUhtUhYius utcfcty aYhYrUtYX Ut Uhy pisctcih Ut fYvYf `, wctb ` 2 f 1; : : : ; L g, si tbUt u(`) > u (` + 1) Aisctcihs wctbch U fYvYf UrY rUheYX, Vut tbY utcfcty iw XcYrYhWY cs sgUff Aisctcih Ut U hiXY Ut Uhy fYvYf ` cs prY`YrrYX ti pisctcih , Vut ti rYXuWY WigpfYxcty, scgpfy rY`Yr ti YUWb Us cXYhtcWUffy aYhYrUtcha U iw i` u(`):! AifctcWcUhs WUhhit fYUp`ria fYvYfs i` tbY bcYrUrWby &h ipYhcha `ir YctbYr fYUXYrsbcp pisctcih Ut U hiXY ch fYvYf ` cs ffYX Vy UppfcWUhts `rig tbUt fYvYf, ir tbY fYvYf cggYXcUtYfy VYfiw, fYvYf ` + 1 EbY ihfy YxWYptcih cs pisctcihs Ut Yhtry L (wbYrY tbYrY cs hi fiwYr pisctcih) Ebiuab fYvYfs WUhhit VY dugpYX, pisctcihs wctbch U fYvYf WUh 7YUXYrs WUh givY `rig ihY fYvYf ch tbY bcYrUrWby ti tbY hYxt wctbiut bUvcha ti priarYss tbriuab Uff tbY pisctcihs Ut tbYcr fYvYf 1ir YxUgpfY, U fYUXYr Ut pisctcih ch fYvYf ` + 1 WUh VY prigitYX ti pisctcih ch fYvYf ` wctbiut bUvcha ti rst ai ti tbriuab tbY chtYrvYhcha pisctcihs &ff YfcacVfY fYUXYrs `rig fiwYr pisctcihs WUh Uppfy `ir ipYhchas 4t Wists Uh UrVctrUrcfy sgUff Ugiuht ti Xi si Di, c` tbYrY cs Uh ipYhcha Ut pisctcih ch Uhy hiXY i` fYvYf `, tbYh Uff pisctcih fYUXYrs ch fYvYf ` wcff Uppfy, Us wYff Us Uff fYUXYrs `rig pisctcih ` + 1 4` U pisctcih ipYhs up Ut pisctcih Ut U hiXY ch fYvYf `, tbYh Uff fYUXYrs `rig ` + 1 wcff Uppfy EbY wchhcha UppfcWUht cs sUcX ti VY prigitYX up U stYp ch tbY bcYrUrWby
! 1irgUffy" pisctcih aYhYrUtYs 0+ YxtrU utcfcty rYfUtcvY ti U pisctcih Ut Uff ` ch tbY sUgY hiXY !
5.2 Factions
EbYrY UrY twi `UWtcihs, XYhitYX B ('fuY) UhX R (CYX), UhX tbY rYgUchcha chXcvcXuUfs UrY hYutrUfs, XYhitYX N 1UWtcihs Yxcst ti WrYUtY prigitcih ip- pirtuhctcYs `ir tbYcr gYgVYrs UhX UrY iraUhcYX ch U bcYrUrWby & `UWtcih WUh suppirt ihY UhX ihfy ihY gYgVYr Uppfycha `ir U schafY pisctcih & `UWtcih gYg- VYr hit suppirtYX Vy bcs `UWtcih `ir Uh ipYhcha WUhhit wch prigitcih UaUchst U suppirtYX gYgVYr 1ir tbY tcgY VYcha, fYt us UssugY `UWtcihs rUhXigfy WbiisY wbig ti suppirt Ugihast tbYcr YfcacVfY WUhXcXUtYs HbYh U `UWtcih bifXs tbY pUrUgiuht pisctcih, tbY YYWt i` prigitcih sup- pirt cs YhbUhWYX, tbus chWrYUscha tbY WbUhWYs i` tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrs `UWtcihs WUhXcXUtY wchhcha prigitcih vcs--vcs tbY itbYr `UWtcih WUhXcXUtY UhX hYutrUfs 1UWtcihs wrctY VchXcha WihtrUWts wctb tbYcr gYgVYrs XYtYrgchcha UhX rY- strcWtcha biw `UWtcihUf suppirt wcff VY UffiWUtYX @hY WUh hYvYr quct U `UWtcih UhX tbY WihtrUWt cs U qucX-pri-qui @h tbY wUy up tbY fYUXYrsbcp bcYrUrWby, tbY `UWtcih gYgVYr wcff VY bYfpYX ch iVtUchcha pisctcihs tbriuab tbY suppirt `rig tbY `UWtcih ch`rUstruWturY 4` tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYr cs `rig bcs `UWtcih, bY wcff rYWYcvY UXXctcihUf suppirt 4` bY YvYhtuUffy VYWigYs tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYr, tbY `UWtcih gYgVYr wcff tbYh iYr tbY sUgY suppirt ti tbY duhcirs tbUt wcff `iffiw bcg ch rYturh Ebcs spYWcW WbUrUWtYrcUtcih i` U `UWtcih Ucgs Ut WUpturcha ch U styfcYX `Usbcih tbY YssYhtcUf pUtrih-WfcYht hUturY i` suWb Uh iraUhcUtcih, Us strihafy YgpbUscYX ch 9UtbUh (!) 1UWtcihs UrY iraUhcYX aYiarUpbcWUffy (`ir tbY sUeY i` Yxpisctcih UhX, ti U WYrtUch YxtYht, rYUfcsg), ch U wUy tbUt gcgcWs tbY UffiWUtcih i` piwYr pisctcihs wctbch tbY Wiuhtry EbY gist sYhcir `UWtcih gYgVYr cs tbY chXcvcXuUf wctb tbY bcabYst fYUXYrsbcp pisctcih ch tbY bcYrUrWby &hy `UWtcih gYgVYr iWWupycha U fYUXYrsbcp pisctcih Ut fYvYf ` cs sYhcir ti U `UWtcih gYgVYr Ut fYvYf `0 > ` 1UWtcih gYgVYrs UrY XYscahUtYX Vy tbYcr rYacih & gYgVYr wbi bUs U pisctcih Ut tbY tip i` tbY aivYrhgYht cs ch tbY rYacih i` tbY wbifY Wiuhtry, Vut U gYgVYr bifXcha U pisctcih Ut tbY tip i` U privchWcUf aivYrhgYht cs U gYgVYr i` tbUt privchWY UhX cs pUrUffYf ch `UWtcih sYhcircty ti U gYgVYr bifXcha U scgcfUr pisctcih ch UhitbYr privchWY Ebcs pYrsih bUs `UWtcihUf sYhcircty ivYr Uff chXcvcXuUfs VYfiw bcg ch
EbY prYsYhWY i` girY tbUh twi `UWtcihs cs YUscfy chWirpirUtYX 3YrY, wY gUchtUch tbcs Ussugptcih ihfy `ir YxpisctcihUf purpisYs UhX ch fchY wctb tbY YgpcrcWUf UhUfyscs tbUt `iffiws @r UaUchst U hYutrUf HY wcff rYfUx tbcs Ussugptcih VYfiw wbYh wY chtriXuWY U rifY `ir gYrctiWrUWy UhX sYhcircty ch prigitcihs 4` U `UWtcih XiYs hit suppirt U gYgVYr, bY WiufX, ch prchWcpfY, quct tbY `UWtcih UhX WihtYst pisctcihs Us U hYutrUf HY Xi hit Uffiw tbcs, cgpfcWctfy Ussugcha tbUt tbY Wists i` Xicha tbcs UrY pribcVctcvY `UWtcihs UrY fceY tbY gUU" UVfY ti sYvYrYfy puhcsb pYipfY wbi Xi hit `uff WiggctgYhts
tbY fYUXYrsbcp bcYrUrWby wctbch bcs privchWY Di, c` U gYgVYr i` `UWtcih B cs tbY privchWcUf fYUXYr ch privchWY a, bY bUs `UWtcihUf sYhcircty ivYr Uhy gYgVYr i` `UWtcih B wbi cs U vcffUaY fYUXYr ch privchWY a 3Y XiYs hit bUvY `UWtcihUf prYWYXYhWY ivYr U vcffUaY fYUXYr ch privchWY c, ir Uhy itbYr B gYgVYr wbi cs hit ch a
5.2.1 Vetoes
1UWtcihs Yxcst ti `UWcfctUtY tbYcr gYgVYrs rcsY tbriuab tbY fYUXYrsbcp bcYrUr- Wby Ebcs rYqucrYs bUvcha Vitb Us gUhy gYgVYrs Us pisscVfY UhX Yhsurcha tbUt gYgVYrs UttUch prigitcihs 0UWb i` tbYsY XcgYhscihs chWrYUsYs tbY priVUVcf- cty i` tbY `UWtcih VYcha piwYr`uf, cY UttUchcha tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp 'ut acvYh tbUt `UWtcihUf suppirt `ir U WihtYstYX pisctcih WUh ihfy VY acvYh ti U schafY `UWtcih gYgVYr, Uh chXcvcXuUf gUy bUvY pYrsihUf chWYhtcvYs tbUt ruh WiuhtYr ti bcs `UWtcihs iVdYWtcvYs 1ir chstUhWY, U gYgVYr gUy bUvY Uh chWYh- tcvY ti VfiWe tbY rcsY i` Wi`UWtcihUfs wbi WiufX XcfutY bcs iwh `UWtcihUf suppirt ch `uturY WigpYtctcihs `ir prigitcih 1UWtcihs auUrX UaUchst tbcs Vy Uffiwcha `ir U sYhcircty vYti ch UffiWUtcha suppirt `ir prigitcihs Duppirt WUh VY acvYh c`, UhX ihfy c`, hi `UWtcih gYgVYr within the region i` tbY ipYhcha UhX sYhcir ti tbY WUhXcXUtY rYquYstcha suppirt VfiWes ct Ebus, wbYh Uh ipYhcha UrcsYs ch U rYacih, YUWb Wi`UWtcihUf Ut YqucvUfYht ir bcabYr fYvYfs i` sYhcircty ti tbY ipYhcha ch tbUt rYacih WUh vYti tbY privcscih i` suppirt GYtiYs cgpirtUhtfy Uffiw `ir chXcvcXuUfs ti VfiWe tbY rcsY i` U gYgVYr `rig tbY sUgY `UWtcih wbi wiufX XcrYWtfy WigpYtY wctb tbYg `ir `UWtcihUf suppirt ch U `uturY ipYhcha DuWb fiWUfcYX VfiWecha i` Wi`UWtcihUf gYgVYrs wcff VY vYry cgpirtUht ch XYtYrgchcha tbY sbUpY i` `UWtcihUf UffiWUtcihs tbriuabiut tbY bcYrUrWby UhX tbY XcstrcVutcih i` chXcvcXuUfs UWriss `UWtcihs EbY vYti YhsurYs tbUt U `UWtcih gYgVYr hYvYr bUs ti suppirt sigYihY ch bcs rYacih `rig bcs iwh `UWtcih tbUt wcff XcrYWtfy WigpYtY wctb bcg `ir suVsYquYht prigitcihs &t tbY sUgY tcgY, schWY tbY vYti cs rYacihUf, ct XiYs hit privcXY si guWb VfiWecha piwYr tbUt
GYtiYs WUh VY YxYrWcsYX `ir U prigitcih UhywbYrY VYfiw ch tbY bcYrUrWby - Us fiha Us wctbch ihYs rYacih i` pYrtchYhWY 3iwYvYr, U pifctcWcUh Ut ` bUs hi chtYrYst ch vYticha Uhy Wi-`UWtcih gYgVYr VYfiw ` + 1 3Y WUh UfwUys vYti tbYg c`, UhX wbYh, tbYy aYt ti ` + 1 4` vYtiYs Wist YvYh Uh UrVctrUrcfy sgUff Ugiuht, tbYy wcff hit VY YxYrWcsYX `ir prigitcihs up ti Uhy fYvYf fiwYr tbUh `, YfsY tbYy gUy VY wUstYX (U pifctcWcUh gUy VY prigitYX ti ` 1, pitYhtcUf rcvUfs gUy rYtcrY, YtW) EbY schafY YxWYptcih cs wbYrY Uff pifctcWcUhs VYfiw UrY Wi`UWtcih gYgVYrs &WWirXcha ti tbY giXYf, U pifctcWcUh UVivY wiufX hYvYr fYt tbcs bUppYh UhX wiufX bUvY vYtiYX tbY rcsY i` ihY i` tbYsY Wi`UWtcihUfs ti UvicX suWb U sctuUtcih UhX YhsurY tbYrY cs Ut fYUst ihY chXcvcXuUf VYfiw wbi WUh VY prigitYX ti bcs UWWigpUhycha pisctcih hit `rig bcs `UWtcih CYUssurchafy, tbcs cs iVsYrvYX Ut Uff fYvYfs UhX `ir Uff pYrciXs ch tbY XUtU
U bcab up `UWtcih gYgVYr WUh `rYYY tbY UXvUhWYgYht i` UhyihY VYfiw bcg UhywbYrY ch tbY Wiuhtry ArivcXcha tbYsY fcgctYX vYtiYs cs tbY `UWtcihs wUy i` VUfUhWcha WUrYYr chWYhtcvYs wbcfY fYssYhcha tbY Wists i` chtrU-`UWtcih rcvUfry, si tbUt suWcYht `UWtcih gYgVYrs ch tbY bcYrUrWby bUvY U aiiX WbUhWY i` UttUchcha tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp
5.3 The State Variable
4h prchWcpfY, prigitcih priVUVcfctcYs Ut YUWb picht ch tcgY `ir YUWb pifctcWcUh ch tbY bcYrUrWby wcff XYpYhX ih tbYcr `UWtcih UhX tbY XcstrcVutcih i` `UWtcih gYgVYrs UWriss Uff itbYr pisctcihs ch tbY bcYrUrWby 3YhWY, wY wcff hYYX ti XYhY tbY `uff XcstrcVutcih i` pisctcihs Vy `UWtcih Us tbY stUtY vUrcUVfY i` tbY St L systYg )YhitY tbcs Vy Ut chstUht t EbY stUtY spUWY cs tbus U `=1 M(`)` XcgYhscihUf spUWY, wctb YUWb XcgYhscih tUecha ihY i` tbrYY vUfuYs B;P R; N EbY stUtY XiYs hit WbUhaY c` hi pisctcih ipYhs up 3iwYvYr, YUWb tcgY Uh ipYhcha bUppYhs Ut U fYvYf `, tbYh ihY chXcvcXuUf wcff VY prigitYX `rig ` + 1 ti ` ti ff tbY ipYh pisctcih, WrYUtcha Uh ipYhcha Ut ` + 1 fYUXcha ti ihY prigitcih `rig ` + 2 , UhX si ih, uhtcf tbY Vittig i` tbY bcYrUrWby L, wbYrY U hYw pifctcWcUh YhtYrs UhX WbiisYs bcs `UWtcih Ebus U schafY ipYhcha wcff fYUX ti U WUsWUXY ir, wbUt wY WUff, U WbUch i` prigitcihs HY UssugY tbUt tbYsY WbUchs iWWur chstUhtUhYiusfy, UhX c` Ut fYUst ihY chXcvcXuUf givcha ch U WbUch rYpfUWYs Uh chXcvcXuUf `rig U XcYrYht `UWtcih, tbYh St WbUhaYs
5.4 Paramount Leadership and Contests
4h U WigpYtctcih `ir prigitcih wctb ihY gYgVYr suppirtYX `rig YUWb `UWtcih UhX ihY hYutrUf pifctcWcUh, tbY priVUVcfcty i` wchhcha prigitcih, `ir U I `UWtcih gYgVYr cs acvYh Vy tbY `iffiwcha WihtYst `uhWtcih, W (I)"
i W (I) = ; () + + where i = ; if I = B; i = ; if I = R; i = ; if I = N:
; ; UhX UrY pUrUgYtYrs XYtYrgchcha tbY strYhatb i` `UWtcih gYgVYrs ch tbY WihtYst `uhWtcih DchWY U `UWtcih WUh ihfy suppirt U schafY gYgVYr, tbY rYf- UtcvY vUfuY i` `UWtcih gYgVYrsbcp `ir U schafY pifctcWcUh, WigpUrYX wctb VYcha U
! hYutrUf, XYpYhXs ih Vitb tbY scY i` tbYsY pUrUgYtYrs UhX tbY YhXiaYhius hug- VYr i` YfcacVfY WUhXcXUtYs `rig tbUt `UWtcih &XXctcihUffy, bUvcha tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp pisctcih ch yiur `UWtcih bYfps aYttcha U prigitcih `ir tbY `UWtcihs suppirtYX WUhXcXUtY 4` tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYr WigYs `rig `UWtcih B; wY Uffiw l > , UhX c` `rig `UWtcih R wY Uffiw l > , tbus chWirpirUtcha fYUXYrsbcp prYgcU ch tbY giXYf 9YutrUfs WihtYstcha U pisctcih ipYrUtY Us U sigYwbUt XcsiraUhcYX `UWtcih EbY ivYrUff fceYfcbiiX i` U pisctcih aicha ti U hYutrUf cs uhUYWtYX Vy tbY hugVYr i` hYutrUfs WihtYstcha U pisctcih, privcXYX tbYrY cs Ut fYUst ihY EbYcr titUf WihtYst wYcabt `uhWtcih cs Ebcs trYUts hYutrUfs syggYtrcWUffy ti `UWtcihs UhX WUh VY tbiuabt i` Us U pripirtcihUf Xcfutcha i` tbY hYutrUf suppirt ch tbY sUgY wUy U `UWtcihs suppirt wiufX VY XcfutYX wYrY tbYy ti `irwUrX guftcpfY WUhXcXUtYs chstYUX i` ihY
5.4.1 Promotions and Factional Distributions
EbY bcYrUrWbcWUf struWturY i` pisctcihs wctbch tbY pUrty cs tUeYh Us acvYh UhX WihstUht ivYr tcgY Arigitcihs UrcsY ti ff ipYhchas iWWUscihYX Vy U XYUtbrYtcrYgYht ir itbYr prigitcihs &s UfrYUXy YxpfUchYX, U schafY XYUtb WUh bUvY gUhy ehiWe-ih YYWts &t fYvYf 1, tbY chstUhtUhYius priVUVcfcty i` Uh ipYhcha Urcscha Ut Uhy pisctcih cs DchWY tbcs cs tbY bcabYst fYvYf wY iVsYrvY, ihfy XYUtbrYtcrYgYht rYgivYs tbY tip fYUXYr 3iwYvYr, tbY chstUhtUhYius priVUVcfcty i` Uh ipYhcha Urcscha Ut U pist Ut fYvYf 2 WigprcsYs tbY XYUtb bUUrX , pfus tbY priVUVcfcty tbUt tbYrY wUs Uh ipYhcha Ut fYvYf 1 UhX tbY chXcvcXuUf Ut tbUt fYvYf 2 pist UsWYhXYX ti fYvYf 1 ti ff ct Ebcs priVUVcfcty i` prigitcih WUh, ch prchWcpfY, XYpYhX ih Vitb tbY `UWtcihUf UfcUtcih i` tbY chXcvcXuUf Ut tbY pist Ut fYvYf 2 UhX tbY `UWtcih i` tbY chXcvcXuUf Ut tbY pist pUrthYrcha tbY ipYhcha Ut fYvYf 1 DcgcfUrfy, tbY chstUhtUhYius priVUVcfcty i` Uh ipYhcha Ut U pist Ut fYvYf 3 cs pfus tbY priVUVcfcty tbUt tbY chXcvcXuUf Ut tbY pist Ut fYvYf 3 UsWYhXYX ti Uh ipYhcha Ut fYvYf 2 ch tbY bcYrUrWby, UhX si ih 4h tbY YstcgUtcih DYWtcih tbUt `iffiws tbYsY ehiWe ih prigitcihs, ir prigitcih WbUchs, wcff VY YxpfcWctfy WigputYX J t 7Yt pI (`) XYhitY tbY priVUVcfcty tbUt Uh I `UWtcih gYgVYr Ut fYvYf ` aYts
HY Uffiw `ir tbY pisscVcfcty i` hi `UWtcihUf UXvUhtUaY, wbcWb gcabt VY YspYWcUffy fceYfy Ut fiw fYvYfs i` tbY bcYrUrWby wbYrY tbY rYUWb i` tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYr WiufX VY gutYX 9itY tbUt ct cs Ufsi tbY WUsY tbUt U hYutrUfs UsWYhscih ti tbY pUrUgiuht pisctcih XiYs hit UXvUhtUaY hYutrUfs Xiwh tbY bcYrUrWby
prigitYX ti Uh ipYhcha pUcrYX wctb U J Ut fYvYf ` 1 Ut chstUht t, `ir I; J = B; R; ir N 7Yt It(`) XYhitY tbY hugVYr i` pisctcihs bYfX Vy `UWtcih I Ut fYvYf `; Ut tcgY t `ir I = B; R; ir N 'y XYhctcih M (`) = Rt (`) + Bt (`) + N t (`) DchWY tbY chstUhtUhYius UrrcvUf rUtY i` XYUtb cs Ut Uhy pisctcih, tbYrY UrY, ch YxpYWtUtcih, It (`) XYUtbs Urrcvcha Ut U pisctcih pUcrYX wctb Uh I Ut fYvYf ` YUWb t, UhX M(`) Ut fYvYf ` ch aYhYrUf Ut YUWb chstUht t 7Yt I (`) XYhitY tbY chstUhtUhYius UrrcvUf rUtY i` prigitcihs `ir Uh I pifctc- WcUh Ut fYvYf `: (ihscXYr rst tbY scgpfYst WUsY, wbcWb cs U prigitcih `rig fYvYf 2 ti tbY tip i` tbY bcYrUrWby ` = 1 DchWY tbYrY UrY, ch YxpYWtUtcih, It(1) ipYhchas Urrcvcha `ir U pisctcih pUcrYX wctb Uh I XuY ti U XYUtb, UhX schWY Ut fYvYf 1 tbYrY cs hi itbYr wUy `ir Uh ipYhcha ti UrcsY, tbY chstUhtUhYius UrrcvUf i` prigitcih `ir U I `rig fYvYf 2 cs"
t I (2) () t Rt t N t t Bt = R (1) pI (2) + N (1) pI (2) + B (1) pI (2) :
HY WUh hiw scgcfUrfy WigputY tbY UrrcvUf i` prigitcihs `rig fYvYf 3 ti fYvYf 2 4htuctcvYfy, tbY pisscVcfcty i` tbYsY UrcsYs wbYh YctbYr U fYUXYr Ut fYvYf 2 XcYs, ir cs bcgsYf` prigitYX ti fYvYf 1, wbcWb ch turh XYpYhXs ih U XYUtb Ut fYvYf 1 Us spYWcYX ch YquUtcih () Fscha tbYsY, wY WUh WigputY tbY chstUhtUhYius UrrcvUf i` prigitcihs `ir Uh I `rig fYvYf 3 Ut t Us"
t I (3) t t Rt t t N t = R (2) + R(2) pI (3) + N (2) + N (2) pI (3) t t Bt +B (2) + B(2) pI (3) : DcgcfUrfy, Wihtchucha Xiwh tbY bcYrUrWby, wY bUvY `ir Uhy fYvYf ` > 2"
t I (`) () t t Rt t t N t = R (` 1) + R(` 1) pI (`) + N (` 1) + N (` 1) pI (`) t t Bt +B (` 1) + B(` 1) pI (`): () YxpfcWctfy sbiws tbUt tbY UrrcvUf rUtY i` I prigitcihs Ut fYvYf ` XYpYhXs hit ihfy ih tbY XcstrcVutcih Ut fYvYf ` 1, cY ih Bt(` 1) ; R t(` 1) ; N t(` 1) ,
Ebcs YxprYsscih usYs tbY `UWt tbUt ch Wihtchuius tcgY scguftUhYius bUUrXs Xi hit UrrcvY EbUt cs, wY put Yri wYcabt ih tbY priVUVcfcty i` U XYUtb ipYhcha iWWurrcha Ut tbY sUgY chstUht ch twi pisctcihs
t t t t Vut Ufsi, tbriuab YUWb i` tbY I (` 1) , ih B (` 2) ; R (` 2) ; N (` 2) : & WihvYhcYht `YUturY i` iur giXYf spYWcWUtcih cs tbUt bcabYr fYvYfs i` tbY bcYrUrWby YhtYr rYWurscvYfy, Uffiwcha tbY WigputUtcih i` UrrcvUf rUtYs `ir Uff I `UWtcihs Uff tbY wUy Xiwh tbY bcYrUrWby J t 7Yt us hiw WihscXYr tbY YxpfcWct `irg i` tbY pI (`) uscha tbY WihtYst `uhWtcih () HY VYach Vy Ussugcha tbUt tbY itbYr `UWtcih J 6= I wcff suppirt ihY i` cts gYgVYrs `ir tbY pisctcih Us wYff J t 4h tbcs WUsY pI (`) cs XYtYrgchYX Us `iffiws"
i if K t(`); K 0t(`) > 0; i+k+k0 8 i t 0t t if K (`) > 0; K (`) = 0 ; J 1 > i+k pI (`) t > () I (`) > i if K t(`) = 0 ; K 0t(`) > 0; <> i+k0 1 if K t(`); K 0t(`) = 0 ; > > > where fIt; i g = fBt; g; f:Rt; g or fN t; g; fKt; k g= 6 fIt; i g; fK0t; k 0g; fK0t; k 0g= 6 fIt; i g:
9itY tbUt J (tbY `UWtcih i` tbY pifctcWcUh tbUt tbY ipYhcha Ut fYvYf ` 1 cs pUcrYX wctb) XiYs hit YhtYr XcrYWtfy chti tbY priVUVcfcty i` wchhcha U prigitcih WihtYst 'ut tbcs cs VYWUusY spYWcWUtcih () UssugYs tbUt c` gYgVYrs i` UhitbYr `UWtcih UrY prYsYht, ihY i` tbYg wcff UfwUys VY suppirtYX ch tbY WihtYst `ir tbY pisctcih &s wY hiw XYgihstrUtY, tbcs wcff hit UfwUys VY tbY WUsY, wbcWb wcff ch `UWt scgpfc`y tbY YxprYsscih UVivY WihscXYrUVfy"
Proposition 1 i) A politician from faction J at level ` will veto the support of a cofactional member ascending to his level from ` + 1 at t if there are members of both I 6= J and neutrals, N, at level `. ii) If there are no members of faction I at level `, a politician from faction J 6= I at level ` will veto a member of his own faction from ` + 1 at t if the t j+ number of cofactional members at level ` is such that J (`) < i where i = , j = if J t = R and i = , j = if J t = B.
Proof. &ff prii`s UrY ch &ppYhXcx 4` Vitb R; B typYs UrY rYprYsYhtYX Ut U pifctcWcUhs fYvYf, bY wcff aUch Vy vYticha tbY UsWYhscih i` U WigpYtctir `rig bcs iwh `UWtcih, Us tbcs chWrYUsYs tbY priVUVcfcty tbUt bcs `UWtcih wcff suppirt bcg `ir U suVsYquYht ipYhcha Ut tbY
fYvYf UVivY 3iwYvYr, c` Uff itbYr `UWtcihs UrY hit UfrYUXy prYsYht, tbYh bY `UWYs U trUXY-i 'y vYticha U Wi`UWtcihUfs prigitcih tbY pUrty gYgVYr stcff cgprivYs bcs WbUhWYs i` aUchcha `UWtcihUf suppirt 'ut bY Ufsi chWrYUsYs tbY WbUhWY tbUt U gYgVYr i` U rcvUf `UWtcih, wbcWb wUs hit UfrYUXy prYsYht, aUchs Yhtry ti tbY ariup i` WigpYtctirs Ebcs fiwYrs tbY WbUhWYs i` bcg wchhcha prigitcih WihXc- tcihUf upih rYWYcvcha tbY suppirt i` bcs `UWtcih EbY suWcYht WihXctcih ch tbY stUtYgYht i` Aripisctcih YhsurYs tbUt tbY `irgYr YYWt XigchUtYs tbY fUttYr 1rig hiw ih, wY priWYYX uhXYr tbY Ussugptcih tbUt tbY suWcYht WihXctcih `ir vYtiYs bifXs, si tbUt wY WihtchuY ti sYY tbYg tbriuabiut iur iVsYrvUtcihs HY wcff vYrc`y tbUt tbcs cs chXYYX tbY WUsY ch tbY XUtU, si wY Xi hit XwYff ih wYUeYr hYWYssUry WihXctcihs `ir vYtiYs ti bifX `urtbYr 1iffiwcha Aripisctcih , vYtiYs aYhYrUtY U fUraY Ugiuht i` struWturY ti tbY pUttYrh i` ipYhchas gYUhcha hi twi Wi`UWtcihUf gYgVYrs wcff YvYr VY pUcrYX Ut tbY sUgY hiXY HY bUvY UfrYUXy vYrcYX ch DYWtcih tbUt tbcs cs, ch `UWt, U sys- tYgUtcW `YUturY i` tbY XUtU 8irYivYr, tbY prispYWts i` prigitcih Ut Uhy hiXY XYpYhX hit ihfy ih tbY XcstrcVutcih i` ipYhchas cggYXcUtYfy UVivY, Vut Ufsi ih tbY XcstrcVutcih i` ipYhchas `urtbYr up, Us tbYsY XYtYrgchY tbY WbUhWYs tbUt U pifctcWcUh cggYXcUtYfy UVivY wcff bcgsYf` VY prigitYX Arigitcih WbUhWYs Ut Uff fYvYfs UrY UYWtYX Vy tbY `uff XcstrcVutcih i` pisctcihs UVivY HY WUh t WigputY tbcs YxpfcWctfy uscha tbY rYWurscvY struWturY i` tbY I (`) tYrgs UhX iur rYsufts ih vYtiYs
Proposition 2 The instantaneous arrival rate of promotions at each level of the hierarchy is as follows. t t t t t Let IB = 1 , i¤ B (`) > 0 and IB = 0 , otherwise; IR = 1 , i¤ R (`) > 0 and t t t t IR = 0 , otherwise; IN = 1 , i¤ N (`) > 0 and IN = 0 , otherwise. For an N member:
t (`) = N N t(`) t t t t + R(` 1) + N (` 1) + B(` 1) R (` 1) t + N(` 1) t t + B(` 1) t : IB + IB + IR + IR + !
For a B member:
t (`) = B Bt(`) t t t + R(` 1) t + N (` 1) R (` 1) t + N (` 1) t t : + IN + IR + IN !
For an R member:
t (`) = R Rt(`) t t t + B(` 1) t + N (` 1) B (` 1) t + N (` 1) t t : + IN IB + + IN !
1ir YUWb ihY i` tbYsY YxprYsscihs wY WUh sYY tbY hYaUtcvY XYpYhXYhWY ih tbY prYvUfYhWY i` ihYs iwh `UWtcih gYgVYrs EUeY `ir YxUgpfY tbY fUst YxprYsscih `ir R EbY arYUtYr tbY hugVYr i` itbYr Rs Ut fYvYf ` Ut t, tbY girY XcfutYX cs Uh Rs suppirt (cY tbY fiwYr tbY priVUVcfcty tbUt Uhy acvYh R gYgVYr wcff VY WbisYh Vy tbY `UWtcih Us tbY ihY ti VY suppirtYX), Us pYr Rt(`) ch tbY XYhigchUtir 1urtbYr, tbY girY `rYquYht tbY Rs Ut fYvYf ` 1 tbY bUrXYr ct cs ti aYt Uh ipYhcha `ir wbcWb Uh R Ut ` wcff hit VY vYtiYX (Ya Ut tbY YxtrYgY t t t c` R (` 1) = M (` 1) , tbYh R(`) = 0 ) Ebcs cs truY `ir Uff fYvYfs i` tbY bcYrUrWby `rig tbY rYWurscih i` tbYsY YquUtcihs EbY pripisctcih bcabfcabts tbY pisscVfY Xiwh scXY i` `UWtcihUf UfcUtcih Ebiuab `UWtcihs bUvY tbY pitYhtcUf ti privcXY suppirt `ir prigitcihs suWb suppirt cs XYWcXYX Vy Wi`UWtcih gYgVYrs scttcha UVivY ihY ch tbY bcYrUrWby EbYy wcff hYvYr fYt U duhcir gYgVYr WihtYst wctb tbYg `ir tbYcr iwh `uturY prigitcihs si, ch U sYhsY, tbY rcsY i` tbY duhcir cs tYtbYrYX ti, UhX tbus XYpYhXs upih, tbY rcsY i` tbY Wi`UWtcihUf sYhcirs 4` tbYy Xi hit rcsY tbYh hit ihfy Xi tbYy hit aYhYrUtY tbY YxtrU suppirt tbUt WigYs `rig tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp, tbYy UWtcvYfy VfiWe tbYcr iwh duhcirs `rig UsWYhXcha ch tbYcr pfUWY t 1chUffy, hitY tbUt YUWb stUtYgYht i` I ch Aripisctcih cahirYs tbY YYWt i` U `UWtcihs bifXcha i` tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp ih prigitcih (cY il) 0YWtcvYfy t I cs wrcttYh `ir tbY WUsY i` Uh N ch pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp 4h tbY &ppYhXcx wY t stUtY tbY `uff sYt i` I WihXctcihUf upih pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp UfcUtcih
5.5 Entry
0htry chti tbY bcYrUrWby i` pifctcWUf pisctcihs iWWurs ihfy Ut tbY fiwYst fYvYf, L &h YhtYrcha pifctcWcUh Ut chstUht t XYWcXYs wbcWb `UWtcih ti dich wbYh stUrtcha bcs pifctcWcUh WUrYYr, ir ti WihtYst Us U hYutrUf, UhX VUsYs tbcs XYWcscih ih tbY XcsWiuhtYX YxpYWtYX utcfcty bY wcff rYWYcvY vcU YUWb ihY i` tbY iptcihs 3Y gUxcgcYs bcs XcsWiuhtYX YxpYWtYX utcfcty strYUg"
1 V t = e s sds Zt
wbYrY t cs tbY chstUhtUhYius utcfcty Ut t: HY `irgUffy WihscXYr tbcs XYWcscih bYrY CYWUff tbUt u(`) XYhitYs tbY pifctcWcUh pYr chstUht pUyi ti bifXcha U pisctcih Ut fYvYf ` 2 f 1; L g ch tbY bcYrUrWby Di tbUt c` U pifctcWcUh bifXs U pisctcih Ut ` Ut chstUht t tbYh t = u(`) )YhY tbY WirrYspihXcha vUfuY `uhWtcih `ir U t pifctcWcUh i` typY I = B; R; N Ut fYvYf ` Ut chstUht t Vy, VI (`) Ebcs cs rYfUtYX t ti tbY prigitcih priVUVcfctcYs, I (`) ; vcU tbY 'YffgUh YquUtcih"
t t t t t t E VI (`) = u(`) + I (`) E VI (` 1) VI (`) ()
EbY YxpYWtUtcihs ipYrUtir UppYUrs ch tbY YxprYsscih VYWUusY tbY vUfuY i` VY- cha U typY I pifctcWcUh Ut ` XYpYhXs ih tbY chstUhtUhYius priVUVcfcty i` VYcha t t prigitYX ti fYvYf VI (` 1) : Ebiuab tbcs cs ehiwh Ut chstUht t, vcU I (`) ; tbY t vUfuY i` VYcha Ut tbcs bcabYr fYvYf ch turh XYpYhXs ih tbY Yvifutcih i` I (`) : t EbY Yvifutcih i` tbYsY I (`) prigitcih priVUVcfctcYs tbYgsYfvYs XYpYhX ih tbY stUtY i` tbY systYg, St; wbcWb cs WbUhacha Wihtchuiusfy ch U stiWbUstcW gUhhYr XuY ti XYUtbs, ipYhchas, UhX prigitcihs iWWurrcha tbriuab tcgY vcU tbY WihtYst `uhWtcih () EbY YhtYrcha pifctcWcUh Ut t WbiisYs tbY `UWtcih wctb tbY bcabYst YxpYWtYX utcfcty strYUg"
t t t t t t sup E VB(L); E VR(L); E VN (L) : () I2f B;R;N g &`tYr Yhtry, schWY U pifctcWcUh cs xYX ch bcs `UWtcih `rig tbYh ih, bcs WbicWYs UrY scgpfY 3Y wcff Uppfy `ir Uff prigitcihs ti wbcWb bY cs YfcacVfY, UhX bY wcff vYti UWWirXcha ti Aripisctcih HY WihscXYr tbY girY XcWuft priVfYg i` tbY chctcUf Yhtry XYWcscih () hiw
5.6 Equilibrium Behavior
0htYrcha pifctcWcUhs wcff WbiisY ti YhtYr tbY `UWtcih (ir rYgUch hYutrUf) ycYfXcha tbY bcabYst YxpYWtYX utcfcty, wbcWb cgpfcYs Wbiischa tbY `UWtcih auUrUhtYYcha tbY `UstYst priarYsscih tbriuab tbY bcYrUrWby ch YxpYWtUtcih EbY gist cggYXcUtYfy rYfYvUht ch`irgUtcih `ir tbY UaYht wcff VY tbY UrrcvUf i` prigitcihs c` bYsbY rYacstYrs Us U I pifctcWcUh `rig fYvYf L ti L 1, Vut ihY WUhhit spYWc`y, U prcirc, tbY rYfUtcvY wYcabt Uh YhtYrcha pifctcWcUh puts ih tbY WbUhWYs i` VYcha prigitYX Ut bcabYr fYvYfs i` tbY bcYrUrWby WigpUrYX ti fiwYr fYvYfs AYrbUps pifctcWcUhs WUrY fcttfY UViut rYacihUf prigitcihs, tbUt iWWur YUrfy ch tbYcr WUrYYr, Vut arYUtfy UViut prigitcihs `rig tbY privchWY ti tbY WYhtrUf aivYrhgYht (ihvYrsYfy,
pifctcWcUhs gUy put suVstUhtcUf vUfuY ih tbYcr cggYXcUtY Yhtry prispYWts 9itY tbUt, chXcrYWtfy Ut fYUst, tbY rYfUtcvY pYr`irgUhWY i` `UWtcihs Ut bcabYr fYvYfs UfrYUXy YhtYrs chti U pifctcWcUhs YvUfuUtcih i` prigitcih Ut tbY fiwYst fYvYf, L, schWY ipYhchas cggYXcUtYfy UVivY XYpYhX hYaUtcvYfy ih tbY `rYquYhWy i` Wi`UWtcihUf pifctcWcUhs Uff tbY wUy up tbY bcYrUrWby# Us XcsWussYX UVivY U`tYr pripisctcih &t Uhy picht ch tcgY tbcs vUfuUtcih wcff XYpYhX ih tbY `uff XcstrcVutcih i` pisctcihs bcabYr tbUh tbY pifctcWcUh, tbUt cs ih St, tbY bcab- XcgYhscihUfcty stUtY spUWY i` tbY systYg Hctbiut gUppcha tbY `uff `irg i` YxpYWtYX bcYrUrWby Yvifutcih, ct cs hit pisscVfY ti WigputY tbY vUfuY `uhWtcih t VI (`) UhUfytcWUffy 3iwYvYr, ct cs pisscVfY ti YstUVfcsb U suWcYht WihXctcih uhXYr wbcWb iptcgUf Yhtry YhsurYs tbUt Ufiha Uhy tcgY pUtb Uff `UWtcihUf typYs UhX hYutrUfs wcff VY iVsYrvYX ch YqucfcVrcug"
Proposition 3 With M(`) large enough for all `, any equilibrium necessarily involves politicians in factions B; R; and N.
4htuctcvYfy, wctb suWcYhtfy gUhy ipYhchas Ut Uff fYvYfs i` tbY bcYrUrWby, tbY vUfuY i` YhtYrcha vcU U `UWtcih (ir Us U hYutrUf) tbUt cs hit UfrYUXy prYsYht wcff YvYhtuUffy iutwYcab YvYh tbY fUraYst pUrUgYtrcW XcsUXvUhtUaYs i` tbUt `UWtcih (ir VYcha U hYutrUf) EbUt cs, `ir YxUgpfY, YvYh c` (si WYtYrcs pUrcVus ct cs VYttYr ti YhtYr Us Uh R tbUh U B), c` tbYrY UrY suWcYhtfy gUhy pisctcihs ch tbY bcYrUrWby, U fUraY hugVYr i` R gYgVYrs UhX pripisctcih wcff cgpfy tbUt tbY YxpYWtYX prigitcih rUtY wcff VY `UstYr c` YhtYrcha Us U (rUrY) B gYgVYr ivYr YhtYrcha Us (ihY i` tbY gUhy) R Ebus, tbiuab wY UrY hit UVfY ti `uffy WbUrUWtYrcY iptcgUf Yhtry ch Uh YqucfcVrcug, tbY suWcYht WihXctcih i` tbY pripisctcih YhsurYs tbUt any YqucfcVrcug XcstrcVutcih i` pisctcihs tbUt wY Xi iVsYrvY wcff `YUturY Vitb `UWtcihs UhX hYutrUfs
5.7 From Model to Data
@pYhchas ch tbY bcYrUrWby iWWur Ut Uhy picht ch tcgY vcU tbY `uhWtcihs ch Aripi- sctcih @tbYr tbUh tbriuab tbY YYWt i` tcgY ih tbY WbUhacha XcstrcVutcih i` `UWtcihs UWriss tbY bcYrUrWby St, wbcWb tbY giXYf YxpfcWctfy UWWiuhts `ir, tbY priWYss fYUXcha ti ipYhchas iWWurs chXYpYhXYhtfy i` tcgY (WihXctcihUf ih St) ErYUtcha ipYhchas tbcs wUy Ugiuhts ti Ussugcha tbUt ipYhchas UrY chXYpYh- XYht YvYhts WUusYX Vy YxiaYhius `UWtirs, YUWb trcaaYrcha U WbUch i` ehiWe ih YYWts Ebcs Ussugptcih gUy VY vcifUtYX Ut tbY tcgY i` (bchYsY (igguhcst
4h wbUt `iffiws VYfiw wY wcff XcspYhsY wctb tbY tcgY chXYx t `ir tbY YgpcrcWUf UhUfyscs
AUrty (iharYssYs, wbYh tbYrY UppYUr ti VY U fUraY hugVYr i` sbuYs Ut Xc`- `YrYht fYvYfs i` tbY bcYrUrWby iVsYrvYX ch U wUy tbUt UppYUrs scguftUhYius, hit sYquYhtcUf 4hXYYX, `ir tbY gist pUrt, tbY XUtU cs iVsYrvYX Ut fiw `rYquYhWy, cY Ut YUWb ((A (iharYss T; T + 1 ; ::: Ebcs cgpfcYs tbUt tbY prigitcih WbUchs tbUt iur giXYf pistufUtYs UrY hit `uffy iVsYrvUVfY, si scgufUtcih gYtbiXs wcff VY hYWYssUry ti fche twi suVsYquYht ST ,ST +1 Ei ipYrUtcihUfcY tbY giXYf ch iur spYWcW YgpcrcWUf sYttcha, wY wcff UssugY tbUt tbY scguftUhYcty iVsYrvYX ch Yxcts UhX prigitcihs rYYWts U pUrtcWufUr struWturY, Us `iffiws 1crst, wY puraY Uff chXcvcXuUfs `rig Uff pisctcihs tbUt wY iVsYrvY fYUvcha tbY XUtU ch VYtwYYh shUpsbits T; T + 1 ; ::: EbUt cs, Uff chXcvcXuUfs wbi UrY hi fihaYr prYsYht VYtwYYh tcgYs T UhX T + 1 UrY UssugYX ti bUvY rYtcrYX Ut sigY picht VYtwYYh twi (iharYssYs DYWihX, ipYhchas UrY ffYX tbriuab U sYquYhWY i` prigitcih WbUchs 0UWb WbUch stUrts wctb tbY bcabYst rUheYX Yxct ch tbY sUgpfY UhX sYfYWts pifctcWcUhs ti ff ch tbY ehiWe-ih ipYhchas sYquYhtcUffy Ebcs WihtchuYs uhtcf Uff tbY Yxcts UhX prigitcihs VYtwYYh ST UhX ST +1 UrY UWWiuhtYX `ir UhX Uff pisctcihs bUvY VYYh ffYX 'YWUusY tbYrY UrY gUhy sYts i` prigitcih WbUchs tbUt WUh rUtcihUfcY tbY iVsYrvYX ipYhchas ch tbY XUtU, DYWtcih sbiws biw scgufUtcih gYtbiXs WUh VY usYX ti trUhspUrYhtfy UXXrYss tbcs cssuY ch prUWtcWY EbcrX, `ir pisctcihs `ir wbcWb tbYrY cs hi YxpfcWct XyUXcW struWturY ch tbY XUtU, wY XrUw Ut rUhXig U pUcrYX pifctcWcUh `rig tbY sYt i` pitYhtcUf gUtWbYs Ut tbY fYvYf Ut wbcWb tbY prigitcih iWWurs
5.8 Discussion of the Model
'Y`irY givcha ti tbY YstcgUtcih i` tbY giXYf, wY iYr bYrY U VrcY` XcsWusscih i` Uh UftYrhUtcvY giXYfcha WbicWY UhX dustc`y iur spYWcW fchY i` rYUsihcha Yg- pcrcWUffy AYrbUps tbY VYst UftYrhUtcvY ti iur chXcvcXuUf WUrYYr WihWYrhs giXYf cs U giXYf tbUt vcYws tbY UffiWUtcih i` pisctcihs Us tbY iutWigY i` `UWtcihUf VUr- aUchcha 4h suWb U giXYf tbY `UWtcih, Us ippisYX ti tbY chXcvcXuUf pifctcWcUh, cs tbY XYWcscih gUeYr, UhX `UWtcihs hYaitcUtY wctb YUWb itbYr ivYr tbY UffiWUtcih i` pisctcihs ch tbY bcYrUrWby 9YaitcUtcihs wiufX `Uviur tbY `UWtcih bifXcha tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp pisctcih, UhX WiufX tbus YUscfy YxbcVct tbY pUttYrhs i` chWrYUsYX rYprYsYhtUtcih Ut Uff fYvYfs wctb fYUXYrsbcp i` U `UWtcih EbY rYfUtcvY ivYrUff VUfUhWcha WiufX Ufsi VY suppirtYX Us Uh YqucfcVrcug iutWigY tbUt Yh-
surYs pYUWY 4` U fYUXYr WigYs `rig `UWtcih B bY cs hit wcffcha ti WigpfYtYfy YxpriprcUtY `UWtcih R VYWUusY bY `YUrs XcssYht `rig R )cssYht ch YxtrYgY WUsYs WiufX tUeY tbY `irg i` rYvift tbUt wiufX XYstUVcfcY hit dust bcs iwh pisctcih Vut, ch tbY fcgct, tbY ivYrUff bifX i` tbY pUrty Di pisctcihs WiufX VY stcff Uffi- WUtYX ti tbY itbYr `UWtcih, Us U prcWY `ir pYUWY CYWcpriWUffy, tbY itbYr `UWtcih gcabt sbiw scgcfUr rYstrUcht c` ct UsWYhXYX ti tbY pUrUgiuht pisctcih &htcW- cpUtcha tbcs, tbY WurrYht fYUXYr wiufX bUvY `urtbYr chWYhtcvYs ti VY giXYrUtY UhX chWfuscvY ch UffiWUtcha pisctcihs AriVfYgs UrcsY `ir tbcs UftYrhUtcvY stiry wbYh tbY UWtuUf XcstrcVutcih i` pisctcihs UhX hit dust tbYcr ivYrUff hugVYr cs sWrutchcYX `urtbYr, Us XihY ch DYWtcih HY sUw tbUt U prihiuhWYX pUttYrh ch tbY XUtU wUs tbY igcsscih i` (B; B ) UhX (R; R ) pUcrs Ut fYUXYrsbcp hiXYs R gYgVYrs UrY girY fceYfy ti VY UWWigpUhcYX Vy B gYgVYrs tbUh Vy N gYgVYrs UhX guWb fYss fceYfy ti VY UWWigpUhcYX Vy UhitbYr R wbcWb cs YxtrYgYfy rUrY Hby$ @hY YxpfUhUtcih WihscstYht wctb `UWtcihUf hYaitcUtcihs cs tbUt YUWb `UWtcih `YUrs tbUt tbY itbYr `UWtcih gUy aUch Wihtrif i` tbY hiXY 4` U B cs ch pfUWY, pfUWcha Uh R UfihascXY bcg YhsurYs tbUt tbY B gYgVYrs Xi hit aUch pYrgUhYht Wihtrif i` tbY hiXY 'ut tbcs sirt i` WihWYrh XiYs hit sYYg fceYfy Us tbYrY XiYs hit UppYUr ti VY YvcXYhWY i` suWb pYrgUhYht hiXUf Wihtrif ch tbY XUtU HY iVsYrvY sbucha i` WUXrYs iWWurrcha rYaufUrfy `ir ArivchWYs `ir chstUhWY EbYrY XiYs hit sYYg ti VY fiWe ch i` `UWtcihs ti pists B gYgVYrs UrY rYpfUWYX Vy R gYgVYrs Ut U hiXY wctb tbY R suVsYquYhtfy rYpfUWYX Vy UhitbYr B Ebcs YvcXYhWY cs UvUcfUVfY upih rYquYst 'ut sbucha WiufX ctsYf` VY tbY strUtYay tbUt `UWtcihs Ygpfiy ti YhsurY tbUt Wihtrif XiYs hit aYt bYfX tii strihafy HY gUy sYY B gYgVYrs rYpfUWYX Vy R gYgVYrs ch irXYr ti YhsurY tbUt tbY B gYgVYrs Xi hit bifX tbY pisctcih Ut tbY hiXY tii strihafy 'ut c` tbcs cs tbY WUsY, U `urtbYr pufY UrcsYs & priWYss i` sbucha tbiuab UVfY ti YUscfy YxpfUch (B; R ) hiXYs wiufX hit YspYWcUffy `Uviur tbYsY HY sbiufX Ufsi rYaufUrfy sYY (B; B ) hiXYs UhX (R; R ) hiXYs, wbcWb UrY tbYh rYpfUWYX Vy (R; R ) UhX (B; B ) hiXYs cggYXcUtYfy U`tYr 4` sbucha cs usYX ti UvicX YhtrYhWbgYht, tbYh tbYrY cs hi rYUsih tbUt chtYrtYgpirUf sbUrcha i` tbY hiXYs sbiufX hit VY suWcYht ti UWbcYvY tbcs EbYrY sbiufX VY hi pUrtcWufUr rYUsih ti sYY tbY prifc`YrUtcih i` (B; R ) hiXYs tbUt wY iVsYrvY ch tbY XUtU Ebcs sYYgs ti VY tbY schafY gist XcWuft `UWt ti YxpfUch wctb U `UWtcihUf VUfUhWcha giXYf @ur chXcvcXuUf WUrYYr-WihWYrhs giXYf YxpfUchs tbcs XcrYWtfy 4h iur vcYw, tbY giXYf wY XYvYfip bUs U `urtbYr UXvUhtUaY rYfUtcvY ti U giXYf tbUt trYUts tbY `UWtcihs Us VUraUchcha pUrtcYs ch tbUt ct trYUts tbY XYWcscih gUeYr
Us tbY chXcvcXuUf, ch U gcWri`iuhXYX wUy
6 Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation
Ebcs DYWtcih XYsWrcVYs iur YstcgUtcih gYtbiXifiay )YhY Y tbY iVsYrvYX XUtU ih WUrYYr iutWigYs (cY prigitcihs, Yxcts, YtW) VYtwYYh twi (iharYssYs T UhX T + 1 UhX X tbY iVsYrvYX XUtU ih tbY bcYrUrWby pfus U sYt i` chXcvcXuUf WbUrUWtYrcstcWs (cY X chWfuXYs `UWtcihs UhX pisctcih wctbch tbY bcYrUrWbyfYvYf ST , pfus chXcvcXuUf WivUrcUtYs) HY XYhY k Us U sYt i` prigitcih WbUchs, si tbUt k = fk(1) ; k(2) ; ::: g, wbYrY YUWb WbUch k(c) i` pifctcWcUhs (sUy, s0; s; s 0;UhX s00 ) cs scgpfy U sYt i` pifctcWcUhs YUWb VYfihacha ti XcYrYht, Vut UXdUWYht bcYrUrWbcWUf fYvYfs `, wbisY prigitcihs wYrY trcaaYrYX Vy tbY Yxct i` tbY bcabYst rUhecha ihY i` tbY WbUch (Ya wbYh s0 XcYs ir rYtcrYs, s cs prigitYX `rig ` = 2 ti ` = 1 , tbYh s0 rYpfUWYs s Ut fYvYf ` = 2 , UhX tbYh s00 rYpfUWYs s0 Ut ` = 3 ) & WbUch stUrts `rig Uh ipYhcha Ut fYvYf ` 1 UhX chvifvYs prigitcihs `rig ` Uff tbY wUy Xiwh ti L HY cgpisY tbUt YUWb pifctcWcUh prigitYX ch tbY XUtU VYfihas ti YxUWtfy ihY WbUch UhX tbUt YUWb WbUhaY VYtwYYh ST UhX ST +1 cs pUrt i` Ut fYUst ihY WbUch k(c): (& pifctcWcUh prigitYX Vy twi fYvYfs VYtwYYh T UhX T + 1 wcff hYYX ti VYfiha ti twi sYpUrUtY prigitcih WbUchs) 7Yt C = # ( k) VY tbY hugVYr i` prigitcih WbUchs ch sYt k EbY uhWihXctcihUf fceYfcbiiX i` iVsYrvcha Y acvYh X cs"
f(Y jX) = Ek [f(Y jX; k)] :
)YhY Yk(c) Us tbY sYt i` WUrYYr iutWigYs pYrtchYht ti tbY chXcvcXuUfs ch- vifvYX ch prigitcih WbUch hugVYr c i` k 'YWUusY tbY struWturY i` tbY pifctcWUf bcYrUrWby wcff WbUhaY ihWY U prigitcih WbUch cs rYUfcYX, cY tbY chtYrcg S wcff WbUhaY, pisctcihs wctbch tbY bcYrUrWbyfYvYf UhX `UWtcihUf UfcUtcihs Ut Uff fYvYfs
Xk(c) hYYX ti VY giXcYX U`tYr YUWb WbUch k(c) cs rYUfcYX EbY WihXctcihUf fceYfcbiiX upih tbY rYUfcUtcih i` U sYt i` prigitcih WbUchs k bUppYhcha ivYr tcgY cs acvYh Vy"
Afus U hYw Yhtry Ut tbY fiwYst fYvYf, wbcWb wY Xi hit giXYf, Us pYr iur XcsWusscih i` Aripisctcih EbY Yhtry WbicWY cs hit hYWYssUry `ir YstcgUtcih UhX Uff pUrUgYtYrs UrY cXYhtcYX wctbiut cts UXXctcih
! C
f(Y jX; k) = f(Yk(c)jXk(c); k): c=1 Y EbY fceYfcbiiX WihtrcVutcih f(Yk(c)jXk(c); k) i` U WbUch k(c) i` prigitcihs chctcUtYX Ut ` 1 chvifvYs Wigputcha tbY prigitcih priVUVcfctcYs i` Uff chXcvcXuUfs chvifvYX ch k(c) Ut tbY vUrcius fYvYfs, Xiwh ti L & prigitcih `rig fYvYf ` ti fYvYf ` 1 ti VY pUcrYX ti U pifctcWcUh K = R; B; N cs U rUhXig YvYht XcstrcVutYX ivYr U XcsWrYtY suppirt `irgYX i` M(`) pichts (chXcvcXuUf pifctcWcUhs), B(`) i` K K wbcWb iWWurrcha wctb priVUVcfcty pB (`), R(`) iWWurrcha wctb priVUVcfcty pR (`), K UhX N(`) iWWurrcha wctb priVUVcfcty pN (`) (HY igct tcgY chXYxYs Us tbYy UrY uhhYWYssUry bYrY) 2cvYh tbY chXYpYhXYhWY i` tbY prigitcih YvYhts UWriss fYvYfs, tbY WihstruW- tcih i` tbcs fceYfcbiiX cs strUcabt`irwUrX 7Yt I` VY tbY `UWtcih i` tbY chXcvcXuUf VYfihacha ti k(c) Ut fYvYf ` UhX J ` 1 VY tbY `UWtcih i` tbY chXcvcXuUf wctb wbcWb sbY cs pUcrYX wbYh prigitYX ti fYvYf ` 1"
L l 1 J f(Yk(c)jXk(c); k) = pIl (l) : l ` Y= 2icha VUWe ti tbY YxUgpfY UVivY i` U WbUch i` pifctcWcUhs s0; s; s 0;UhX s00 VY- fihacha ti `UWtcihs N, R, UhX B rYspYWtcvYfy, UhX Ussugcha tbYy Uff bUppYh ti aYt pUcrYX wctb N-typY pifctcWcUhs, tbY fceYfcbiiX WihtrcVutcih i` tbcs WbUch cs"
N N N f(Yk(c)jXk(c); k) = pN (2) pR (3) pB (4)
` 1 J wbYrY YUWb priVUVcfcty pI` (`) cs WigputYX VUsYX ih Xk(c), irXYrYX `rig tbY tip prigitcih ti tbY fYvYf L prigitcih, Us cgpisYX Vy tbY sYquYhtcUf hUturY i` tbY prigitcihs WigprcsYX ch YUWb WbUch EbY 8Uxcgug DcgufUtYX 7ceYfcbiiX (8D7), `ir acvYh hugVYr i` scgufUtYX sYts i` prigitcih WbUchs RK , cs"
R C 1 K f(Y jX) = f(Ykr (c)jXkr (c); kr): RK r=1 c=1 X Y Ebcs cs tbY YstcgUtir tbUt wY Ygpfiy
HY Ygpfiy 100 scgufUtYX WbUchs sYts `ir YUWb ((A 9UtcihUf AUrty (iharYss
7 CCP Factional Politics: Structural Results
Ebcs sYWtcih prYsYhts 8D7 YstcgUtYs i` tbY giXYf UhX sUgpfY t UssYssgYhts EbY sUgpfY chWfuXYs Uff tbY gYgVYrs i` tbY tb- tb (YhtrUf (iggcttYYs ch tbY pist-)Yha YrU EbY scgufUtcih priWYXurY ch DYWtcih wUs rst cgpfYgYhtYX ch U sYrcYs i` 8ihtYWUrfi scgufUtcihs UhX suWWYss`uffy priVYX `ir" c) cXYhtcWUtcih i` tbY struWturUf pUrUgYtYrs# cc) sYhsctcvcty ti gcsspYWcWUtcih ch tbY hugVYr i` `UWtcihs# UhX ccc) sYhsctcvcty ti gcsspYWcWUtcih ch tbY WihtYst `uhWtcih wY usY ! HY VYach iur UhUfyscs wctb tbY gist pUrUgYtrcWUffy pUrscgihcius giXYf pisscVfY, ihY wbYrY wY hirgUfcY = 1 UhX tbY twi `UWtcih pUrUgYtYrs f ; g UrY YstcgUtYX ih tip i` U schafY fYUXYrsbcp prYgcug , XYhYX Us = l= = l= EbY 8D7 rYsufts `ir tbcs giXYf UrY rYpirtYX ch (ifugh i` EUVfY ! EbY YstcgUtYX WihtYst `uhWtcih pUrUgYtYrs UrY 0:045 UhX 0:029 `ir (P7( UhX DbUhabUc 2Uha rYspYWtcvYfy, wbcWb UrY WfisY ti tbY UvYrUaY sbUrY i` sYUts ch tbY (YhtrUf (iggcttYY EbY YstcgUtYX fYUXYrsbcp prYgcug cs 2:553, cgpfycha tbUt U `UWtcih WUhXcXUtY cs girY tbUh twcWY Us fceYfy ti VY prigitYX wbYh tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYr cs `rig tbY sUgY `UWtcih EbY gUahctuXY i` tbY fYUXYrsbcp prYgcug cs WihscstYht wctb tbY rYXuWYX `irg YvcXYhWY ch EUVfY &ff pUrUgYtYrs Xrcvcha tbY prigitcih priWYss UWriss `UWtcihs UrY prYWcsYfy YstcgUtYX 'YWUusY ct gUy sYYg rYstrcWtcvY ti UssugY U Wiggih WihtYst `uhWtcih UWriss Uff fYvYfs i` tbY ((A tip YWbYfihs (wbcWb chWfuXY bYtYriaYhYius fUyYrs ch Vitb scY UhX durcsXcWtcih, suWb Us tbY tip ((A pisctcihs UhX tbY A'D(, A', ((,
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DYY 6ubh () & girY XYtUcfYX VrYUeXiwh Vy fYvYf i` tbY (YhtrUf (iggcttYY WUh VY `iuhX ch EUVfY
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7.1 Adding Individual Covariates
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exp ( Z s) qI;s (`) : exp ( Z s ) s02A I (`) 0
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7.2 Alternative Models
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1 p(`) : M (`)
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8 Counterfactuals and Model Analysis
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8.1 Forgoing Collective Leadership
HY VYach Vy Yxpfircha Uh bcstircWUf WiuhtYr`UWtuUf ih fYUXYrsbcp prYgcU ch tbY pist-)Yha YrU @ur giXYf YxpfcWctfy rYWiahcYs suWb prYgcU, Vut U wYUftb i` UhYWXitUf XcsWusscih ch (bchYsY pifctcWs (UhX tbY YgpcrcWUf YvcXYhWY i` DYWtcih ) suaaYsts tbYg ti bUvY VYYh WurtUcfYX ch tbY pist-)Yha YrU Ebcs pYWufcUrcty i` tbY pist-)Yha (bchYsY systYg, tbY YgYraYhWY i` si-WUffYX WiffYWtcvY fYUX- Yrsbcp, bUs VYYh `rYquYhtfy rYWiahcYX ch tbY fctYrUturY 4t cs i`tYh chXcWUtYX Us tbY gUch struWturUf VrYUe `rig tbY strihagUh pifctcWUf YqucfcVrcU tbiuabt ti bUvY prYvUcfYX uhXYr 8Ui QYXiha UhX tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp i` )Yha IcUipcha (Esiu, !!# 1Ywsgctb, # DbUgVUuab, ) Ebcs YxYrWcsY cs Ufsi usY`uf ch pYrspYWtcvY i` tbY WurrYht WbUhaYs Us sWbifUrs fceY 9UtbUh () suaaYst ArYscXYht Ic gUy VY overturning Dengs system , Us bY has taken the chairmanship of the most important seven of the twenty-two leading small groups that guide policy in speci c areas UhX tightened direct control over the military 3YrY, wY wcff rUgp up tbY fcgctYX rifY pfUyYX Vy fYUXYrsbcp prYgcU ch `UW- tcihUf rYprYsYhtUtcih ch (bchU UhX prYsYht U WiuhtYr`UWtuUf i` wbUt wiufX bUvY bUppYhYX uhXYr bYcabtYhYX wchhYr-tUeY-Uff typY `UWtcihUf WigpYtctcih HY ruh tbY giXYf wctb twcWY Us bcab U fYUXYrsbcp prYgcug CYsufts UrY rYpirtYX ch 1caurY & girY XYtUcfYX VrYUeXiwh Vy fYvYf WUh VY `iuhX ch tbY tbcrX pUhYf i` EUVfY EbY WiuhtYr`UWtuUf cs cgpfYgYhtYX Vy scgufUtcha `ir YUWb (iharYss T tbY sbUrY i` prigitcih i` YUWb `UWtcih ti tbY `iffiwcha (iharYss T + 1 FhXYr tbY 5cUha QYgch (DbUhabUc 2Uha) prYs- cXYhWy, ipYhchas ch tbY AifctVuri UhX tbY (YhtrUf (iggcttYY UrY ffYX wctb girY i` tbY tip fYUXYrs Wi`UWtcihUfs FhXYr tbY (P7( fYUXYrsbcp i` 3u 5chtUi, hugVYrs wiufX bUvY VYYh WigpUrUVfY, swchacha ch tbY ippisctY XcrYWtcih wctb girY tuanpai gYgVYrs prigitYX EbY gUahctuXY i` tbY chWrYUsY ch tbY sbUrYs i` prigitcihs, biwYvYr, cs fYss tbUh tbY chWrYUsY ch tbY fYUXYrsbcp prYgcug EbY XUgpYhcha YYWt YgYraYs `rig tbY `UWtcihUf vYti gYWbUhcsg XYtUcfYX ch
During the Maoist era, factions were ideologically as well as personally de ned, and remained ercely loyal in what could become a winner-take-all game. )cttgYr (, p )
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8.2 Li Keqiang Presidency
& sYWihX WiuhtYr`UWtuUf wY pYr`irg chvifvYs tbY WbicWY i` fYUXYrsbcp rUtcYX Vy tbY tb AUrty (iharYss Ebcs cs tbY YvYht tbUt Vriuabt Ic 5chpcha ti tbY AC( ArYscXYhWy 9UtbUh UhX 2cffYy () prYsYht WigpYffcha XiWugYhtUry YvcXYhWY tbUt UfrYUXy tYh yYUrs VY`irY tbY `irgUf piwYr trUhsctcih Ic 5chpcha UhX 7c 6YqcUha VYfihaYX ti U sYfYWt `Yw wctb pitYhtcUf UWWrYXctUtcih ti tbY pUrUgiuht pist 'i IcfUc wUs Ufsi pUrt i` tbcs bcabfy sYfYWtYX ariup 4t cs pisscVfY `ir us ti stuXy U WiuhtYr`UWtuUf 7c prYscXYhWy 1caurY rYpirts tbY UaarYaUtY sbUrY i` prigitcih, UhX U girY XYtUcfYX VrYUeXiwh Vy fYvYf WUh VY `iuhX ch tbY `iurtb pUhYf i` EUVfY 4htYrYstchafy, acvYh tbY YstcgUtYX fYUXYrsbcp prYgcU, tbY prigitcih Ut A' fYvYf wiufX bUvY bUX U vYry fcgctYX chWrYUsY ch (P7( rYprYsYhtUtcih (7cs `UWtcih) 8irY rUXcWUf sbc`ts wiufX bUvY VYYh rYWirXYX ch tbY prigitcih Ut tbY (( UhX &( tbiuab &aUch tbcs cs U rYsuft i` tbY sfiw pYrWifUtcih i` `UWtcihUf rYprYsYhtUtcih chXuWYX Vy iur giXYf, WigpiuhXYX wctb tbY UfrYUXy bcab (P7( rYprYsYhtUtcih Ut tbY uppYr fYvYfs i` tbY ((A Ut tbY YhX i` 3us fUst tYrg ch iWY
8.3 Are Princelings a Faction?
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ti @ur giXYf Uffiws U `irgUf stUtcstcWUf UhUfyscs i` sigY i` tbYsY quYstcihs HY VYach Vy chvYstcaUtcha wbYtbYr iur pistufUtY i` tbY prchWYfchas hit VY- bUvcha Us U uhcYX `UWtcih cs wUrrUhtYX Vy tbY XUtU Ei UssYss tbcs `irgUffy wY cgpfYgYht Guiha spYWcWUtcih tYsts VYtwYYh iur VUsYfchY giXYf UhX ihY wbYrY prchWYfcha stUtus cs WiXYX Us gYgVYrsbcp ch `UWtcih P , wctb U spYWcW pUrUgYtYr rYaufUtcha Uh YxpUhXYX WihtYst `uhWtcih i` tbY typY ()"
W (P ) = : + + +
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8.4 Is President Xi Jinping A¢liated to the Shanghai Gang?
@ur struWturUf UppriUWb Uffiws Ufsi ti priXuWY `irgUf tYsts `ir tbY UhUfyscs i` `UWtcihUf UfcUtcih i` tbY tip fYUXYrsbcp EbY WUsY i` Ic 5chpcha cs YgVfYgUtcW VYWUusY i` Vitb bcs striha tcYs ti tbY ((A YfctY tbriuab `Ugcfy WihhYWtcihs UhX
DigY rYWurrcha UfcUtYX pifctcWcUhs chWfuXY WurrYht A'D( gYgVYr UhX Uhtc-Wirruptcih WUr HUha BcsbUh, UhX pitYhtcUf A'D( `uturY gYgVYrs suWb Us 7c QbUhsbu, XcrYWtir i` tbY (( 2YhYrUf @WY, UhX AifctVuri gYgVYr QbUi 7Ydc Dbcb () YstcgUtYs, VUsYX ih sbUrYX WUrYYr YxpYrcYhWY, tbUt fYss tbUh 6 pYrWYht i` WurrYht (( gYgVYrs bUvY pUst tcYs wctb ArYscXYht Ic Ebcs sbiufX biwYvYr hit VY Wih`usYX wctb U trufy `UWtcihUf iraUhcUtcih i` tbY ArYscXYhts chhYr WcrWfY `ir wbcWb bUrX YvcXYhWY cs hit UvUcfUVfY
bcs rYpYUtYX rYdYWtcih i` chtrU-pUrty `UWtcihUf pifctcWs (Ya WUVUfs UhX WfcquYs gYhtcihYX ch iWcUf trUhsWrcpts ih AYipfYs )Ucfy, 8Uy rX, ! ) Ei tbcs aiUf, wY rY-YstcgUtY tbY giXYf Ussugcha tbUt Ic cs Uh uhUfcUtYX hYutrUf, UhX WigpUrY tbY UftYrhUtcvY giXYf UaUchst iur VUsYfchY spYWcWUtcih wbYrY Ic cs U DbUhabUc 2Uha gYgVYr EbY Guiha tYst sbiws tbUt Ic cs sfcabtfy girY fceYfy ti VY U DbUhabUc 2Uha gYgVYr, Uftbiuab tbY stUtcstcWUf YvcXYhWY cs chWihWfuscvY @ur tYsts Xi hit bUvY Yhiuab piwYr ch tbcs spYWcW chstUhWY 1irtuhUtYfy, suWb UgVcaucty cs fceYfy ti VY rYsifvYX U`tYr tbY !tb AUrty (iharYss, wbcWb wcff uhvYcf U wYUftb i` XUtU ih hYw prigitcihs wctbch tbY ((A
8.5 An Out-of-sample Forecast for the 2017 19th Party Congress
Ei WihWfuXY iur quUhtctUtcvY YxYrWcsYs wY Ygpfiy iur giXYf ti `irYWUst tbY !tb AUrty (iharYss ch &ftbiuab UXgcttYXfy spYWufUtcvY, ti tbY VYst i` iur ehiwfYXaY tbcs cs priVUVfy ihY i` tbY vYry `Yw rcairius quUhtctUtcvY Yhvcrih- gYhts Uffiwcha `ir YxYrWcsYs i` tbcs echX EbY giXYf chWirpirUtYs chXcvcXuUf WbUrUWtYrcstcWs ch tbcs UhUfyscs ti iVtUch girY UWWurUtY `irYWUsts EbY tip pUhYf i` EUVfY sbiws tbUt sbUrY i` prigitcihs Vy fYvYf i` tbY (YhtrUf (iggcttYY FhXYr tbY Ussugptcih tbUt Ic cs ch `UWt U DbUhabUc 2Uha gYgVYr, tbY DbUhabUc `UWtcih cs YxpYWtYX ti Yhdiy U bcabYr sbUrY i` prigitcihs ch tbY AifctVuri tbUh tbY (P7( `UWtcih XuY ti fYUXYrsbcp prYgcU 4h WihtrUst, prigitcihs Ut fiwYr fYvYfs UrY YxpYWtYX ti VY girY WigpUrUVfY VYtwYYh tbY twi `UWtcihs XuY ti tbY XUgpYhcha YYWts stYggcha `rig vYtiYs DchWY tbYrY cs stcff uhrYsifvYX UgVcaucty rYaUrXcha Ics `UWtcihUf UfcUtcih, wY Ufsi WihXuWt U `irYWUst Ussugcha Ic cs U hYutrUf ch tbY Vittig pUhYf i` EUVfY 4h tbcs WUsY, tbY DbUhabUc 2Uha wiufX UppYUr ti fisY cts UXvUhtUaY ch prigitcih `ir Uff tbY fYvYfs i` tbY (YhtrUf (iggcttYY
9 Conclusions
Ebcs pUpYr WihtrcVutYs ti Uh YgYracha fctYrUturY ih tbY pifctcWUf YWihigy i` YWihigcW XYvYfipgYht Vy `iWuscha ih YfctY iraUhcUtcih ch U hihXYgiWrUWy HY spYWcWUffy `iWus ih giXYrh (bchU UhX ih tbY chtYrhUf iraUhcUtcih i` tbY
! &vUcfUVfY Ut bttp"YhpYipfYWhhW!-!btgf 1ir chXcvcXuUfs wbi hYwfy YhtYr &( Ut tbY !tb AUrty (iharYss wbisY WbUrUWtYrcstcWs UrY hit rYUXcfy UvUcfUVfY, wY rUhXigfy XrUw tbY WbUrUWtYrcstcWs `rig tbY sUgpfY i` tbY hYw YhtrcYs i` tb AUrty (iharYss
! (bchYsY (igguhcst AUrty EbY ((A, guWb fceY bcstircWUf 7Yhchcst pUrtcYs ch DiWcUfcst WiuhtrcYs, rYprYsYhts tbY fchWbpch i` hUtcihUf pifctcWs UhX uhXYrstUhXcha cts chhYr wirechas cs WYhtrUf ti Uhy pifctcWUf YWihigcW UhUfyscs i` tbY AC( HY prYsYht U giXYf i` chtYrhUf iraUhcUtcih i` tbcs schafY-pUrty rYacgY, wbYrY YxpfcWct `UWtcihUf XyhUgcWs wctbch tbY pUrty YhrcWb U priVfYg i` WUrYYr WihWYrhs i` pifctcWUf WUXrYs EbY giXYf iYrs U sYrcYs i` hivYf chscabts ih tbY rifY i` `UWtcihs ch tbYsY rYacgYs ch U `uffy gcWri`iuhXYX sYttcha &ftYrhUtcvY giXYfcha WbicWYs UrY Ufsi XcsWussYX EbY giXYf cs vUfcXUtYX YgpcrcWUffy Ygpfiycha U rcWb XUtU sYt ih tbY WUrYYr prifYs i` tip ((A gYgVYrs 4h rYXuWYX `irg, U sYt i` prYvciusfy uhYxpfirYX systYgUtcW YgpcrcWUf rYaufUrctcYs ch (bchYsY YfctY pifctcWs UrY priVYX UhX Xcs- WussYX EbY YxtYht i` tbY - Uhtc-Wirruptcih puraY ch sbUpcha (bchYsY `UWtcihUf pifctcWs cs Ufsi UhUfyYX 4h iur struWturUf YstcgUtcih, wY YxpfirY cg- pirtUht WiuhtYr`UWtuUfs pYrtchYht ti tbY (bchYsY bcstircWUf WUsY UhX usY tbY giXYf ti UhswYr U sYrcYs i` quYstcihs rYfYvUht ti tbY pifctcWUf YWihigy i` tbY ((A HY bipY tbUt tbcs `rUgYwire gUy Ufsi privY usY`uf ti tbY uhXYrstUhXcha i` tbY fUtYht chstctutcihUf sbc`ts iWWurrcha wctbch tbY ((A uhXYr Ic 4h `uturY rYsYUrWb wY bipY ti YxtYhX iur UhUfyscs ti tbY !tb AUrty (iharYss Ebcs wcff Uffiw prYWcscih ih Uff XcgYhscihs WihWYrhcha tbY Ic ArYsc- XYhWy 'YscXYs iur UppfcWUtcih ti (bchYsY pifctcWs, wY pfUh ti `iWus ih scgcfUrfy WigpfYx hihXYgiWrUtcW YhvcrihgYhts tbY YxUgpfY i` CusscU WigYs ti gchX wbYrY iur giXYf i` bcYrUrWbcWUf pUrty iraUhcUtcih gUy VY ti U WYrtUch YxtYht trUhspisUVfY
C010C09(0D
'Yff, )UhcYf & The China Model: Political Meritocracy and the Limits of Democracy. ArchWYtih, 95" ArchWYtih FhcvYrscty ArYss 'Uc, (biha-0h, (bUha-EUc 3scYb, QbYha 8cWbUYf Diha (rihy WUpc- tUfcsg wctb (bchYsY WbUrUWtYrcstcWs Mimeo (bcWUai 'iitb 'Yffihc, 1rUhe A, UhX 'YffYr, )Yhhcs ( ! Faction Politics: Politi- cal Parties and Factionalism in Comparative Perspective DUhtU 'UrVUrU, (fci ArYss 'i, QbcyuY EbY tb (YhtrUf (iggcttYY i` tbY (bchYsY (iggu- hcst AUrty" `irgUf chstctutcihs UhX `UWtcihUf ariups Journal of Contemporary China , (!), - 'i, QbcyuY Chinas Elite Politics: Political Transition and Power Balancing 3UWeYhsUWe, 95" HirfX DWcYhtcW AuVfcsbcha (Yrih, &hXrYU EbY AifctcWs i` 1csscih" &h &hUfyscs i` 1UWtcih 'rYUe- UwUys &giha 4tUfcUh AUrtcYs (!-) British Journal of Political Science , (), -! (bYh, PY, 3ihaVch 7c, UhX 7c-&h Qbiu CYfUtcvY AYr`irgUhWY 0vUfu- Utcih UhX tbY EurhivYr i` ArivchWcUf 7YUXYrs ch (bchU Economics Letters , , - (ix, 2Ury H# 1rUhWYs 8W(Uff CisYhVfutb# 8cWbUYf 1 EbcYs !!! 0fYW- tirUf CY`irg UhX tbY 1UtY i` 1UWtcihs" EbY (UsY i` 5UpUhs 7cVYrUf )YgiWrUtcW AUrty British Journal of Political Science , Gif !, 9i (5Uh, !!!), pp - (ix, 2Ury H# 1rUhWYs 8 CisYhVfutb# 8cWbUYf 1 EbcYs 0fYWtirUf CufYs, (UrYYr &gVctcihs, UhX AUrty DtruWturY" (igpUrcha 1UWtcihs ch 5UpUhs FppYr UhX 7iwYr 3iusYs American Journal of Political Science , Gif , 9i (5Uh, ), pp - )YwUh, Euruh, 1rUhWYsWi DquchtUhc 4h )Y`YhsY i` 1UWtcihs &gYrcWUh 5iurhUf i` AifctcWUf DWcYhWY, ch prYss )cttgYr, 7iwYff !! (bchYsY ch`irgUf AifctcWs The China Journal " - )cttgYr, 7iwYff, 7YUXYrsbcp (bUhaY UhX (bchYsY AifctcWUf )YvYfip- gYht ch The New Chinese Leadership: Challenges and opportunities after the 16th Party Congress. The China Quarterly Special Issues 9i (UgVrcXaY FhcvYrscty ArYss
1Ywsgctb, 5isYpb EbY 9Yw DbUpY i` 0fctY AifctcWs, The China Jour- nal , " -! 1rUhWics, AUtrcWe, 4fcU CUchYr, 1rUhWYsWi ErYVVc 3iw 4s AiwYr DbUrYX ch &`rcWU$, Econometrica , 8UrWb , ()" pp- 1rUhWics, AUtrcWe, 4fcU CUchYr, 1rUhWYsWi ErYVVc EbY )cWtUtirs 4hhYr (crWfY, mimeo UBC 3uUha, 5cha Factionalism in Chinese Communist Politics (Ug- VrcXaY FhcvYrscty ArYss 5cU, CucxuY, 8UsUyuec 6uXUgUtsu UhX )UvcX DYcg AifctcWUf DYfYWtcih ch (bchU" (igpfYgYhtUry CifYs i` (ihhYWtcihs UhX AYr`irgUhWY Journal of the European Economics Association , ()" 6Uti, 5uhei UhX (Urif 8Yrsbih, 4htYrhUf pUrty iraUhcUtcih ch tbY 4tUfcUh (brcstcUh XYgiWrUts UhX 5UpUhYsY fcVYrUf XYgiWrUts" `UWtcihUf WigpYtc- tcih `ir iWY, WfcYhtYfYs, UhX Wirrupt YxWbUhaY 4h Comparing Political Corrup- tion and Clientelism , 5 6UwUtU, YX, &sbaUtY AuVfcsbcha (igpUhy, 'urfchatih GE 6ubh, CiVYrt 7UwrYhWY The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin CUhXig 3iusY 7UvYr, 8cWbUYf, )UhcYfU 2cUhhYttc AUrty WibYscih, pUrty XcsWcpfchY, pUrty `UWtcihs ch 4tUfy, ch 4htrU-pUrty pifctcWs UhX WiUfctcih aivYrhgYhts, YX Vy 6 'Yhict, UhX ) 2cUhhYttc, pp - CiutfYXaY, 7ihXih 7c, (bYha EbY DbUhabUc 2Uha" 1irWY `ir DtUVcfcty ir (UusY `ir (ihcWt$ China Leadership Monitor " - 7c, (bYha EbY 'UttfY `ir (bchUs Eip 9chY 7YUXYrsbcp Aists The Washington Quarterly ", - 7c, (bYha & 'ciarUpbcWUf UhX 1UWtcihUf &hUfyscs i` tbY Aist- AifctVuri China Leadership Monitor " - 7c, 3ihaVch, UhX 7c-&h Qbiu AifctcWUf EurhivYr UhX 0WihigcW AYr- `irgUhWY" tbY 4hWYhtcvY CifY i` AYrsihhYf (ihtrif ch (bchU Journal of Public Economics ! (!)" - 8W&ffcstYr 4Uh !! AUrty &XUptUtcih UhX 1UWtcihUfcsg wctbch tbY &us- trUfcUh AUrty DystYg &gYrcWUh 5iurhUf i` AifctcWUf DWcYhWY, (), - 8yYrs, 2ustUvus ! The History of Tammany Hall 'ihc & 7cvYrfcabt, 9P 9UtbUh, &hXrYw ! & 1UWtcihUfcsg 8iXYf i` ((A AifctcWs China Quarterly (5UhuUry),
9UtbUh, &hXrYw UhX 'ruWY 2cffYy Chinas New Rulers: The Secret Files. 9Yw Pire, 9P" EbY 9Yw Pire CYvcYw 'iies 9UtbUh, &hXrYw Hbi 4s Ic$ The New York Review of Books, 8Uy tb 4ssuY AYrscWi, 9cWifU, 5is ( CiXrcauY-AuYVfctU, UhX )Uh DcfvYrgUh 1UW- tcihs UhX AifctcWUf (igpYtctcih Journal of Political Economy , ! ()" - AyY, 7uWcUh ! EbY )yhUgcWs i` 1UWtcihs UhX (ihsYhsus ch (bchYsY AifctcWs" & 8iXYf UhX DigY Aripisctcihs RAND Air Force Report C-- &1 DbUgVUuab, )UvcX 7 Chinas Communist Party: Atrophy and Adap- tation F( ArYss Dbcb, GcWtir 1UWtcihs 8UttYr" AYrsihUf 9Ytwires UhX )cstrcVutcih i` 'Uhe 7iUhs ch (bchU Journal of Contemporary China " -! Dbcb, GcWtir Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conict and Ination (UgVrcXaY FhcvYrscty ArYss Dbcb, GcWtir, (brcstipbYr &Xifpb, UhX 8chaxcha 7cu 2Yttcha &bYUX ch tbY (igguhcst AUrty" 0xpfUchcha tbY &XvUhWYgYht i` (YhtrUf (iggcttYY 8YgVYrs ch (bchU American Political Science Review ()" Dbcb, GcWtir 0irts Ut YxtYrgchUtcha `UWtcihUfcsg uhXYr Ic 5ch- pcha" Hcff Ic 5chpcha XigchUtY (bchYsY pifctcWs U`tYr tbY !tb AUrty (iharYss$ Mercator Institute for China Studies Papers , (5uhY)" - Esiu, EUha !! (bchYsY AifctcWs Ut tbY Eip" 1UWtcihUfcsg ir 4h`irgUf AifctcWs$ 'UfUhWY-i`-AiwYr AifctcWs ir U 2UgY ti Hch &ff$ The China Journal " ! QbYhaxu HUha, 5chabUh QYha Ic 5chpcha" tbY aUgY WbUhaYr i` (bchYsY YfctY pifctcWs$ Contemporary Politics , - QuWeYrgUh, &fUh ! Political Clienteles in Power: Party Factions and Cabinet Coalitions in Italy DUaY Ari`YsscihUf AUpYrs ch (igpUrUtcvY AifctcWs, -, 'YvYrfy 3cffs UhX 7ihXih" DUaY AuVfcWUtcihs
10 Appendix
Proof of Proposition AUrt (c) DuppisY tbUt, I(`) > 0; wbYrY I 6= J, UhX N(`) > 0 (ihscXYr tbY XYWcscih Vy U `UWtcih- J pifctcWcUh ch U hiXY Ut ` i` wbYtbYr ti vYti U Wi`UWtcihUfs suppirt `ir prigitcih ti bcs hiXY Hctb tbY prigitcih i` U sUgY-`UWtcih gYgVYr `rig J ti tbY pifctcWcUhs hiXY, fYt J (`) XYhitY tbY titUf hugVYr i` `UWtcih J gYgVYrs tbUt wiufX VY prYsYht Ut fYvYf ` EbYh, uscha YquUtcih () UhX (), tbY prigitcih bUUrX pUrUgYtYr `ir tbcs J pifctcWcUh Ut fYvYf ` (c` tbY itbYr `UWtcih K Ufsi vYtiYs Wi-`UWtcih gYgVYrs) c` bY XiYs hit vYti VYWigYs"
j ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = I(` 1) I + N(` 1) N ; J J (`) j + j + i + wctb j = UhX i = ir vcWYvYrsU 4` chstYUX, tbY pifctcWcUh vYtiYs bcs Wi`UW- tcihUf, UhX U gYgVYr i` tbY itbYr `UWtcih (ir U hYutrUf) UsWYhXs ti bcs hiXY, bcs prigitcih bUUrX VYWigYs"
j ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = I(` 1) I + N(` 1) N ; J J (`) 1 j + j + i + wbcWb cs strcWtfy arYUtYr 4` tbY itbYr `UWtcih XiYs hit vYti cts gYgVYrs tbY rYspYWtcvY YxprYsscihs VYWigY"
j ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = I(` 1) I + N(` 1) N J J (`) j + i + j + i + UhX
j ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = I(` 1) I + N(` 1) N : J J (`) 1 j + i + j + i + &hX tbY fUttYr bUUrX cs WfYUrfy bcabYr UaUch Ebcs privYs pUrt U)
AUrt (cc) DuppisY tbUt, I(`) = 0 ; UhX N(`) > 0: DuppisY `urtbYr tbUt, wctb tbY prigitcih i` U Wi-`UWtcih gYgVYr ti Js hiXY tbYrY wcff VY J (`) gYgVYrs i` Js `UWtcih Ut fYvYf `; tbYh tbY bUUrX pUrUgYtYr `ir prigitcih i` tbcs J
pifctcWcUh cs"
j ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = I(` 1) I + N(` 1) N : () J J (`) j + j + 4` Uh N gYgVYr chstYUX UsWYhXs ti bcs hiXY, tbYh tbY J gYgVYrs prigitcih bUUrX cs"
j ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = I(` 1) I + N(` 1) N ; J J (`) 1 j + j + wbcWb YxWYYXs (), si bY cs WfYUrfy VYttYr i vYticha bcs iwh `UWtcih gYgVYr 3iwYvYr, c` Uh I 6= J; N UsWYhXs ti bcs hiXY, tbYh tbY J gYgVYrs prigitcih bUUrX VYWigYs"
j ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = I(` 1) I + N(` 1) N : ( ) J J (`) 1 j + i + j + DchWY tbcs I wcff WihtYst ` 1 fYvYf ipYhchas (tbY sYWihX YxprYsscih UVivY), tbcs fiwYrs tbY WbUhWYs i` tbY J VYach prigitYX ti ihY i` tbisY &ssugcha I `UWtcihUfs Ufsi vYti, Uh I UsWYhXcha ti Js hiXY fiwYrs tbY WbUhWYs i` U J prigitcih tbY gist c` N(` 1) = M(` 1) Di U suWcYht WihXctcih `ir J ti YxYrWcsY U vYti UssugYs Uff bcabYr pisctcihs UrY ffYX Vy gYgVYrs tbUt UrY hYutrUf, N FhXYr tbcs Ussugptcih YxprYsscih ( ) VYWigYs"
j ( + (` 1)) (`) = M(` 1) N ; J J (`) 1 i + j + UhX YxprYsscih () VYWigYs"
j ( + (` 1)) (`) = M(` 1) N : J J (`) j + Di J wcff vYti U J Wigcha `rig fYvYf ` + 1 privcXYX tbUt"
j ( + (` 1)) j ( + (` 1)) M(` 1) N < M(` 1) N J (`) j + J (`) 1 i + j + J (`) 1 j + ) < J (`) i + j + j + ) J(`) < i &ssugcha tbUt Is Ufsi vYti 4` tbYy Xiht tbY suWcYht WihXctcih cs sfcabtfy UftYrYX, Vut quUfctUtcvYfy cXYhtcWUf
wbYrY wY usY tbUt J (`) 1 = J(`)
Proof of Proposition 7Yt us XYhY tbY chXcWUtir `uhWtcihs IB = 1 , c B(`) >
0 UhX IB = 0 , itbYrwcsY# IN = 1 , c N(`) > 0 UhX IN = 0 , itbYrwcsY# IR =
1, c R(`) > 0 UhX IR = 0 , itbYrwcsY
DtUrt wctb U hYutrUf ( N), wbi cs Ut fYvYf ` ch tbY bcYrUrWby I (` 1) cs XYtYrgchYX `rig tbY bcYrUrWby UVivY"
R N (`) = R(` 1) ( + R(` 1)) pN (`) N + N(` 1) ( + N (` 1)) pN (`) B + B(` 1) ( + B(` 1)) pN (`):
R (ihscXYr `urtbYr tbUt, XcYrYhtfy `rig () wbYrY pN (`) = = (IB + + IR), R hiw pN (`) = = (IB + ) VYWUusY ch Aripisctcih YUWb R(` 1) cs privYh ti vYti Uhy R pisscVfy WigpYtcha UaUchst N 1ir U scgcfUr rYUsih, ct bifXs tbUt B pN (`) = = (IR + ) HY tbYh bUvY"
N (`) ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) = R(` 1) R + N(` 1) N + B(` 1) B : N(`) I + I + I + I + B B R R DcgcfUrfy, `ir U `UWtcih B gYgVYr tbcs cs acvYh Vy"
R B(`) = R(` 1) ( + R(` 1)) pB(`) N + N(` 1) ( + N (` 1)) pB (`) B + B(` 1) ( + B(` 1)) pB(`) ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) = R(` 1) R + N(` 1) N ; B(`) + I + I + I N R N B wbYrY tbY fUst fchY usYs tbY `UWt tbUt vYticha `rig Aripisctcih cgpfcYs pB(`) = R N 0; wbcfY pB(`) = = ( + IN ) UhX pB (`) = = ( + IR + IN )
1chUffy, `ir U `UWtcih R gYgVYr tbcs cs"
R R(`) = R(` 1) ( + R(` 1)) pR(`) N + N(` 1) ( + N (` 1)) pR (`) B + B(` 1) ( + B(` 1)) pR(`) ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) = B(` 1) B + N(` 1) N ; R(`) + I I + + I N B N wbYrY tbY fUst fchY usYs tbY `UWt tbUt iur vYticha rYsufts ch Aripisctcih cgpfy R B N pR(`) = 0 ; wbcfY pR(`) = = ( + IN ) UhX pR (`) = = ( + IB + IN )
Full Listing of I (`) conditional on paramount leadership 1ir Uh N 4` Uh N cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = R(` 1) R + N(` 1) N + B(` 1) B : N N(`) I + I + I + I + B B R R 4` Uh R cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = R(` 1) R + N(` 1) N + B(` 1) B : N N(`) I + I + I l + I l + B B R R 4` U B cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = R(` 1) R + N(` 1) N + B(` 1) B : N N(`) l l I + IB + IB + IR + R where IB = 1 ; iff B (`) > 0 and IB = 0 ; otherwise ; IR = 1 ; iff R (`) > 0 and IR = 0 ; otherwise:
1ir `UWtcih B gYgVYr 4` Uh N cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = R(` 1) R + N(` 1) N : B B(`) + I + I + I N R N 4` Uh R cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = R(` 1) R + N(` 1) N : B B(`) + I + I l + I N R N 4` U B cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
l ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = R(` 1) R + N(` 1) N : B B(`) l l + IN + IR + IN
where IN = 1 ; iff N (`) > 0 and IN = 0 ; otherwise ; IR = 1 ; iff R (`) > 0 and IR = 0 ; otherwise:
1ir U `UWtcih R gYgVYr 4` Uh N cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = B(` 1) B + N(` 1) N : R R(`) + I I + + I N B N 4` Uh R cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
l ( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = B(` 1) B + N(` 1) N : R R(`) l + I I + l + I N B N 4` U B cs pUrUgiuht fYUXYr"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = B(` 1) B + N(` 1) N : R R(`) + I l N IB + + IN
where IN = 1 ; iff N (`) > 0 and IN = 0 ; otherwise ; IB = 1 ; iff B (`) > 0 and IB = 0 ; otherwise:
Proof of Proposition HY rst XYgihstrUtY tbUt, c` tbY systYg cs stUtcih- t t Ury, si tbUt VI (`) = VI (`) UhX I (`) = I (`) 8I; ` , tbYh I (`) > J (`) cgpfcYs VI (`) > V J (`): Di, () cs sifvYX Vy tbY I suWb tbUt I (`) cs sup fB (`) ; R (`) ; N (`)g : t t EbY stUtcihUry UhUfia i` YquUtcih () wbYrY VI (`) = VI (`) UhX I (`) = I (`) 8I; ` cs"
V I (`) = u(`) + I (`) [ VI (` 1) VI (`)] ; wbcWb cgpfcYs" u(`) + I (`) VI (` 1) VI (`) = + I (`) UhX u(` 1) + I (` 1) VI (` 2) VI (` 1) = : + I (` 1)
'y rYpYUtYX suVstctutcih"
u(`) VI (`) = + + I (`) (`) u(` 1) I + ( + I (`)) ( + I (` 1)) (`) (` 1) u(` 2) I I + ( + I (`)) ( + I (` 1)) ( + I (` 2)) (`) (` 1) (2) u(1) : : : + I I I : ( + I (`)) ( + I (` 1)) ( + I (1))
Ebcs rYXuWYs ti"
` 1 k=` 1 u(`) k=j I (k + 1) VI (`) = + u(j) k=` : + I (`) j=1 Q k=j ( + I (k)) X Q DchWY iw pUyis UrY bcabYr tbY bcabYr tbY pifctcWcUh cs ch tbY bcYrUrWby, cY u(` 1) > u (`) 8`, tbYh hYWYssUrcfy chWrYUscha tbY rUtY i` prigitcih cgprivYs dV I (`) vUfuUtcihs, > 0 8` Ebcs cgpfcYs tbUt I (`) > J (`) YhsurYs VI (`) > d I (`) VJ (`) EbY prii` priWYYXs hYxt Vy YstUVfcsbcha suWcYht WihXctcihs `ir tbrYY pUrts (c) EbY YxcstYhWY i` hYutrUfs acvYh `UWtcihs Yxcst# (cc) EbY YxcstYhWY i` U schafY `UWtcih acvYh hYutrUfs Yxcst# (ccc) EbY YxcstYhWY i` U sYWihX `UWtcih, acvYh hYutrUfs UhX U rst `UWtcih UfrYUXy Yxcst
4h YUWb pUrt, U suWcYht WihXctcih cs privcXYX `ir I (`) > J6=I (`) UhX
K6=I (`) Ut U schafY fYvYf, ` EbY suWcYht WihXctcih YstUVfcsbYX ch YUWb WUsY cs tbus rYqucrYX ti bifX Ut Uff ` ch irXYr ti YhsurY tbUt Uh YhtYrcha pifctcWcUh prY`Yrs Yhtry Us U typY I AUrt (c) HY YstUVfcsb U suWcYht WihXctcih `ir tbYrY ti VY hYutrUfs DuppisY, ih tbY WihtrUry, tbUt tbYrY Yxcst hi N gYgVYrs 9YWYssUrcfy, XuY ti Aripisctcih , wctbiut Ns, Uff hiXYs wcff VY ffYX Vy Vitb U B UhX Uh R: Ebus, uhXYr tbY suppisctcih, tbY bcYrUrWby rYgUchs stUtcihUry, si tbUt, `rig tbY rYsuft UVivY, ct cs suWcYht ti WigputY ihfy tbY stUtcihUry I (`) `ir YUWb ` ti XYtYrgchY tbY iptcgUf I &ssugY, wctbiut fiss i` aYhYrUfcty, tbUt tbY pUrUgiuht fYUXYrsbcp pisctcih cs bYfX Vy U B (ihscXYr fYvYf ` ch tbY bcYrUrWby 9YWYssUrcfy tbY prigitcih
! bUUrX `ir Uh N Ut fYvYf ` cs acvYh Vy"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = R(` 1) R + B(` 1) B : N l I + IB + R )uY ti iptcgUf vYtiYs Ut YUWb hiXY, ct gust VY tbUt R(` 1) = B(` 1) =
M(` 1) =2 UhX IB = IR = 1 EbY rYfUtcihsbcp VYtwYYh R(` 1) UhX B(` 1) cs UgVcauius Di WihscXYr Vitb WUsYs sYpUrUtYfy 1crst, UssugY tbUt R(` 1)
B(` 1) , wbcWb wcff cgpfy, XuY ti tbY syggYtry i` tbY pisctYX bcYrUrWby, tbUt
R(`) B(`) tii EbYh, suVstctutcha `ir IB; IR, R(` 1) UhX B(` 1) ycYfXs"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = M(` 1) =2 R + M(` 1) =2 B : N l + +
DchWY R(` 1) B(` 1) tbYh"
1 1 (`) M (` 1) =2 ( + (` 1)) + ; N R l + + UhX Ussugcha, `ir hiw, tbUt l > cgpfcYs"
1 N (`) M (` 1) ( + R(` 1)) l : (!) +
9iw WihscXYr B(`)"
2 l ( + (` 1)) (`) = M(` 1) =2 R B M(`) l 1 = (M(` 1) ( + (` 1))) : M(`) R
EbYh N (`) > B(`) c`"
1 1 M (` 1) ( + (` 1)) > (M(` 1) ( + (` 1))) ; R L M(`) R + wbcWb rYUrrUhaYs ti" 1 > : () l + M(`)
'y suppisctcih R(`) B(`), si tbcs WihXctcih, wbcWb WfYUrfy bifXs `ir M(`) fUraY Yhiuab Ut Uff `, cs suWcYht `ir hYutrUfs ti VY tbY prY`YrrYX YhtYrcha typY, tbus WihtrUXcWtcha tbY gUchtUchYX Ussugptcih tbUt hYutrUfs UrY hit ch tbY bc-
YrUrWby &ssugcha, UftYrhUtcvYfy, tbUt l , chstYUX i` uscha tbY chYquUfcty ch (!) wY hiw bUvY"
1 (`) M (` 1) ( + (` 1)) ; N R + wbcWb, Vy `iffiwcha tbY sUgY priWYXurY Us UVivY, ycYfXs tbY UhUfia ti () Us U suWcYht WihXctcih `ir N (`) > B(`), hUgYfy"
1 > : () + M(`)
Ebcs UaUch bifXs `ir suWcYhtfy bcab M(`), UhX UaUch, schWY ct WihtchuYs ti VY tbY WUsY tbUt R(` 1) B(` 1) , tbcs cgpfcYs tbUt YhtYrcha pifctcWcUhs wcff WbiisY ti VY hYutrUf
9iw suppisY tbY UftYrhUtcvY rYfUtcihsbcp VYtwYYh R(` 1) UhX B(` 1) , l tbUt cs" R(` 1) > B(` 1) , UhX UaUch rst pisct tbUt > EbYh fYt us usY tbYsY twi chYquUfctcYs UhX suVstctutY `ir IB; IR, R(` 1) UhX B(` 1) YxUWtfy Us wY XcX UVivY 0quUtcih (!) hiw ycYfXs"
( + (` 1)) ( + (` 1)) (`) = M(` 1) =2 R + M(` 1) =2 B N l + + 1 1 > M (` 1) =2 ( + (` 1)) + B l + + 1 > M (` 1) ( + B(` 1)) l : +
9iw R(`) cs acvYh Vy"
2 ( + (` 1)) (`) = M(` 1) =2 B R M(`) 1 = (M(` 1) ( + (` 1))) : M(`) B
EbYh N (`) > R(`) c`"
1 1 M (` 1) ( + (` 1)) > (M(` 1) ( + (` 1))) : B L M(`) B +
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1 > : l + M(`)
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1 > : + M(`)
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+ (` 1) (`) = N (` 1) N : B +
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Figure 1: Geographic Distribution of Factions or Groups (1956-2014)
Notes: This graph shows the geographic distribution of factions or groups across provinces (municipalities) over the period of 1956 to 2014. The color scale represents the average share of faction or group in a province (municipality).
Figure 2: Leadership Premium in Promotion Rates of Each Faction or Group
Notes: This graph shows the leadership premium in promotion rates of each faction over the rest of members in the Central Committee over time. The leadership premium in promotion rates is defined as the regression coefficients of promotion dummy on faction or group affiliation. The regression is repeated for each session of Central Committee. The capped spikes indicate the standard errors of the estimates. The shaded area indicates that the General Secretary of CCP is from the same faction or group.
Figure 3: Leadership Premium in Power Score of Each Faction or Group
Notes: This graph shows the share of power score of each faction or group in the Central Committee over time. The power score is constructed following the scheme of Bo (2010). The shaded area indicates that the General Secretary of CCP is from the same faction or group.
Figure 4: Power Score of Each Faction or Group in the Central Committee
Notes: This graph shows the share of power score of each faction or group in the Central Committee over time. The power score is constructed following the scheme of Bo (2010). The vertical line indicates the year of 1990, the first time when a civilian, Jiang Zemin, took over the Central Military Committee. The power score is normalized to zero in 1990. The upper panel shows the whole sample period from 1956 to 2012, the lower panel shows the post-Deng period from 1990 to 2012.
Figure 5: Power Score of Each Constituency in the Central Committee
Notes: This graph shows the share of power score for each constituency in the Central Committee over time. The power score is constructed following the scheme of Bo (2010). The vertical line indicates the year of 1990, the first time when a civilian, Jiang Zemin, took over the Central Military Committee. The power score is normalized to zero in 1990. The upper panel shows the whole sample period from 1956 to 2012, the lower panel shows the post-Deng period from 1990 to 2012.
Figure 6: Seat Shares at Each Level of the Central Committee
Notes: This graph shows seat shares at each level of the Central Committee predicted by the baseline faction model and in the data. Each of the five bars represents the top two CCP positions, PBSC, PB, CC, and AC, from the top down, respectively. The blue/white/red bar represents the Shanghai Gang/Neutral/CYCL. The model is estimated using the 14 th to 18 th Central Committees and the results are averaged over 100 simulations for each Party Congress.
Figure 7: Aggregate Share of Promotions over Time
Notes: This graph shows the time series plot of the share of promotions of each faction over time. The share of promotions is defined as the ratio between the number of promotions of a faction and the total number of promotions to this level. The share of promotions is predicted by the baseline faction model estimated using the 14 th to 18 th Central Committees and the results are averaged over 100 simulations for each Party Congress.
Figure 8: Model Fit (In Sample)
Notes: This graph shows the scatter plot of the model predicted share of promotions of each faction against the data. The share of promotions is defined as the ratio between the number of promotions of a faction and the total number of promotions to this level. The blue/red dot represents Shanghai Gang/CYLC. Each dot is a share of a faction at a given level of a given Party Congress. The estimation sample includes the 14 th to 18 th Central Committees and the results are averaged over 100 simulations for each Party Congress.
Figure 9: Meritocracy (In Sample)
Notes: This graph shows the scatter plot of the model predicted share of promotions of each faction against the data. The share of promotions is defined as the ratio between the number of promotions of a faction and the total number of promotions. The blue/red dot represents Shanghai Gang/CYLC. Each dot is a share of a faction at a given level of a given Party Congress. The estimation sample includes the 14 th to 18 th Central Committees and the results are averaged over 100 simulations for each Party Congress.
Figure 10: Model Fit (Out of Sample)
Notes: This graph shows the scatter plot of the model predicted share of promotions of each faction against the data. The share of promotions is defined as the ratio between the number of promotions of a faction and the total number of promotions to this level. The blue/red dot represents Shanghai Gang/CYLC. Each dot is a share of a faction at a given level of the 18 th party congress. The estimation sample includes the 14 th to 17 th Central Committees and the results are averaged over 100 simulations for each Party Congress.
Figure 11: Counterfactual Aggregate Share of Promotions over Time (Leadership Premium × 2)
Notes: These graphs show the time series plot of the share of promotions of each faction over time. The share of promotions is defined as the ratio between the number of promotions of a faction and the total number of promotions to this level. The counterfactual simulations are conducted by doubling the leadership premium of the baseline faction model and the results are averaged over 100 simulations for each Party Congress.
Figure 12: Counterfactual Aggregate Share of Promotions over Time (Li Keqiang Presidency)
Notes: These graphs show the time series plot of the share of promotions of each faction over time. The share of promotions is defined as the ratio between the number of promotions of a faction and the total number of promotions to this level. The counterfactual simulations are conducted by assuming Li Keqiang became the president in the 18 th Party Congress and the results are averaged over 100 simulations for each Party Congress. Table 1: Summary Statistics of Elites in China
Organizations N Duration Age Gender Ethnicity CYLC Shanghai Military Princelings Party Apparatus 10543 4.47 47.97 0.93 0.10 0.13 0.04 0.05 0.03 (2.98) (10.17) (0.26) (0.3) (0.34) (0.2) (0.21) (0.18) Government 7099 3.98 46.88 0.93 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.04 (12.54) (9.71) (0.25) (0.22) (0.25) (0.17) (0.09) (0.19) Military 2091 4.07 44.10 0.99 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.91 0.06 (3.86) (14.98) (0.1) (0.15) (0.12) (0.13) (0.29) (0.23) People's Congress 1696 5.34 56.43 0.89 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.02 (3.23) (8.94) (0.31) (0.34) (0.26) (0.17) (0.2) (0.14) CPPCC 1413 6.95 59.72 0.90 0.12 0.06 0.04 0.01 0.02 (52.9) (9.91) (0.29) (0.33) (0.23) (0.18) (0.12) (0.14) Court 213 4.46 37.16 0.97 0.22 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 (3.87) (8.59) (0.17) (0.41) (0.26) (0.14) (0) (0) Procuratorate 53 5.34 46.51 0.92 0.10 0.11 0.08 0.00 0.00 (3.16) (11.89) (0.27) (0.31) (0.32) (0.27) (0) (0) CYLC 521 3.85 31.91 0.87 0.12 0.77 0.01 0.00 0.03 (2.88) (7.14) (0.33) (0.32) (0.42) (0.11) (0.06) (0.16) Business 4590 4.27 42.99 0.93 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.02 (4.62) (13.66) (0.25) (0.2) (0.19) (0.19) (0.09) (0.14) Media 500 4.72 40.74 0.98 0.06 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.03 (4.61) (11.73) (0.15) (0.24) (0.3) (0.2) (0.12) (0.18) Education 3781 2.88 34.04 0.92 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 (4.23) (12.38) (0.26) (0.16) (0.21) (0.17) (0.14) (0.13) Unclassified 3558 3.94 40.00 0.90 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.03 (4.39) (13.58) (0.3) (0.26) (0.24) (0.17) (0.16) (0.16) Notes: This table shows summary statistics of demographics and career paths of 4,494 elites who hold import positions in government, politics, the military, education, business, and media in China since 1992. The unit of observation is position-individual pair. We report means and standard deviation, in parentheses below. N is the number of observations in each type of organization. Duration is the length of tenure in the position. Age is the age when an individual first started the job. Gender equals 1 if an individual is male, 0 otherwise. Ethnicity equals 1 if a member is from an ethnic minority, 0 otherwise. CYLC/Shanghai/Military/Princelings equals 1 if an individual is from CYLC/Shanghai/Military/Princelings faction/group, 0 otherwise. The data source for this table is China Vitae. Table 2: Summary Statistics of Central Committee Members
C.C. Year N Gender Age College Graduate Mishu Ethnicity Abroad Promotion Retirement CYLC Shanghai Military Princelings 8 1956 173 0.95 51.23 0.40 0.00 0.34 0.03 0.07 0.14 0.51 0.03 0.05 0.56 0.02 (0.21) (6.97) (0.49) (0) (0.48) (0.17) (0.25) (0.35) (0.5) (0.18) (0.21) (0.5) (0.13)
9 1969 278 0.92 51.82 0.33 0.01 0.09 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.26 0.01 0.05 0.56 0.01 (0.26) (11.71) (0.47) (0.1) (0.29) (0.16) (0.25) (0.31) (0.44) (0.1) (0.23) (0.5) (0.08)
10 1973 318 0.88 52.36 0.36 0.01 0.09 0.02 0.08 0.09 0.42 0.02 0.07 0.44 0.01 (0.32) (12.94) (0.48) (0.1) (0.29) (0.15) (0.27) (0.29) (0.49) (0.12) (0.25) (0.5) (0.11)
11 1977 331 0.90 56.88 0.38 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.08 0.07 0.62 0.03 0.06 0.44 0.02 (0.3) (11.95) (0.49) (0.09) (0.24) (0.14) (0.27) (0.26) (0.49) (0.17) (0.23) (0.5) (0.12)
12 1982 344 0.93 59.61 0.58 0.04 0.12 0.04 0.09 0.13 0.62 0.08 0.06 0.33 0.02 (0.25) (8.08) (0.49) (0.2) (0.32) (0.2) (0.29) (0.34) (0.49) (0.26) (0.23) (0.47) (0.15)
13 1987 285 0.93 56.11 0.79 0.09 0.15 0.05 0.11 0.15 0.40 0.05 0.06 0.21 0.05 (0.26) (6.55) (0.41) (0.28) (0.36) (0.22) (0.32) (0.36) (0.49) (0.22) (0.23) (0.41) (0.22)
14 1992 318 0.92 56.87 0.88 0.11 0.13 0.07 0.10 0.18 0.45 0.03 0.03 0.21 0.04 (0.26) (6.18) (0.32) (0.32) (0.34) (0.25) (0.31) (0.38) (0.5) (0.16) (0.18) (0.41) (0.19)
15 1997 343 0.93 56.51 0.95 0.17 0.11 0.06 0.11 0.18 0.48 0.02 0.04 0.20 0.05 (0.26) (5.72) (0.22) (0.38) (0.31) (0.23) (0.31) (0.39) (0.5) (0.15) (0.19) (0.4) (0.22)
16 2002 356 0.93 56.05 0.98 0.31 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.16 0.47 0.05 0.06 0.19 0.05 (0.26) (5.33) (0.15) (0.46) (0.26) (0.26) (0.3) (0.36) (0.5) (0.22) (0.23) (0.39) (0.23)
17 2007 366 0.90 56.15 0.87 0.52 0.10 0.07 0.11 0.21 0.48 0.07 0.04 0.17 0.06 (0.29) (5.68) (0.34) (0.5) (0.29) (0.25) (0.31) (0.41) (0.5) (0.26) (0.2) (0.37) (0.23)
18 2012 373 0.91 56.50 0.87 0.68 0.17 0.07 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.05 0.17 0.05 (0.29) (4.73) (0.34) (0.47) (0.38) (0.26) (0.3) (0) (0) (0.29) (0.21) (0.37) (0.23) Notes: This table shows summary statistics of the members of the 8th -18th Central Committees. We report the mean and the standard deviation, below in parentheses. Gender equals 1 if a member is male, 0 otherwise. College equals 1 if a member has a college degree, 0 otherwise. Graduate equals 1 if a member has a post-graduate degree, 0 otherwise. Abroad equals 1 if a member has studied or worked abroad, 0 otherwise. Mishu equals 1 if a member has been worked as a personal secretary of prominent politicians, 0 otherwise. Ethnicity equals 1 if a member is an ethnic minority, 0 otherwise. Promotion equals to 1 if a member will be promoted in the next session of Central Committee, 0 otherwise. Retirement equals to 1 if a member will retire after the current session of Central Committee, 0 otherwise. CYLC/Shanghai/Military/Princelings equals 1 if a member is from CYLC/Shanghai/Military/Princelings faction/group, 0 otherwise. Table 3: Geographical Distribution of Factions and Groups
Dependent Variable: Average Share of Faction or Group (1) (2) (3) (4) Shanghai CYLC Military Princelings
GDP per capita 0.644** -0.652 -2.141*** 1.517*** [0.265] [0.623] [0.741] [0.319]
Constant 1.705*** 7.309*** 19.97*** 0.693* [0.533] [0.915] [1.875] [0.374]
Observations 30 31 31 31 Adjusted R- squared 0.040 0.011 0.053 0.396
Notes: This table shows the cross-section regressions of the share of each faction in provinces (municipalities) on the average provincial (municipal) GDP per capita over the period of 1956- 2014. The share of a faction in a province is defined as the ratio of the number of faction members who have worked in this province (municipality) over the total number of central committee members who have worked in the same place during their careers. Robust standard errors are reported in the bracket. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively.
Table 4: Factional Mix
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) All All All All Provincial National
Year F.E. N Y N Y Y Y Position F.E. N N Y Y Y Y
Dependent Variable CYLC1 CYLC2 -0.139** -0.185*** -0.189** -0.245*** -0.136* -0.499** [0.0568] [0.0594] [0.0755] [0.0723] [0.0693] [0.143]
Observations 794 794 794 794 648 145 Adjusted R- squared 0.016 0.070 0.193 0.254 0.242 0.180
Dependent Variable Shanghai1 Shanghai2 -0.105*** -0.132*** -0.353* -0.378** -0.0319 -0.802* [0.0319] [0.0346] [0.180] [0.175] [0.0466] [0.341]
Observations 773 773 773 773 627 145 Adjusted R- squared 0.006 0.011 0.382 0.392 0.187 0.278
Dependent Variable Princelings1 Princelings2 -0.0535 -0.0595 -0.132** -0.134** -0.155* -0.0411 [0.0505] [0.0523] [0.0571] [0.0545] [0.0806] [0.114]
Observations 794 794 794 794 648 145 Adjusted R- squared 0.001 0.020 0.133 0.154 0.202 0.227
Notes: This table shows panel regressions of the factional affiliation of the number 1 official on the number 2 official in the same political office. The top/middle/bottom panel shows results for CYLC/Shanghai/princelings respectively. Variable CYLC1 (CYLC2) is a dummy which equals to 1 if number 1 (2) official is from the CYLC faction. Shanghai1, Shanghai2, Princelings1 and Princelings2 and defined similarly. Column 1-4 include all positions, and Column 5-6 break down to provincial and national level positions. The provincial positions include 31 provincial and municipal units (secretary and governor). The position in Shanghai Municipality is excluded in the regression sample for Shanghai Gang. The national positions include Politburo Standing Committee (two highest ranking members), PRC presidency (President and Vice President), the State Council (Premier and Executive Vice premier), Central Military Committee (Chairman and Executive Vice Chairman), CCP Secretariat (two highest ranking secretaries), NPC (Chairman and Executive Vice Chairman), CPPCC (Chairman and Executive Vice Chairman), the Supreme People ’s Court (President and Executive Vice President). Standard errors are clustered at both position unit and year level. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively. Table 5: Factional Mix (Shanghai vs. CYCL)
Dependent Variable: Shanghai1 CYLC1
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
CYLC2 0.164* 0.166* 0.187** 0.196** Shanghai2 0.368* 0.315 0.396* 0.338* [0.0850] [0.0818] [0.0747] [0.0761] [0.188] [0.197] [0.207] [0.197]
Year F.E. N Y N Y N Y N Y Position F.E. N N Y Y N N Y Y
Observations 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 Adjusted R-squared 0.046 0.047 0.376 0.381 0.043 0.069 0.207 0.239
Notes: This table shows panel regressions of the factional affiliation of the number 1 official on the number 2 official in the same political office. Variable Shanghai1 (Shanghai2) is a dummy which equals to 1 if number 1 (2) official is from the Shanghai faction. Variable CYLC1 (CYLC2) is a dummy which equals to 1 if number 1 (2) official is from the CYLC faction. The sample period is from 1992 to 2014. Column 1-4 include all positions, and Column 5-6 break down to provincial and national level positions. The provincial positions include 31 provincial and municipal units (secretary and governor) excluding Shanghai Municipality. The national positions include Politburo Standing Committee (two highest ranking members), PRC presidency (President and Vice President), the State Council (Premier and Executive Vice premier), Central Military Committee (Chairman and Executive Vice Chairman), CCP Secretariat (two highest ranking secretaries), NPC (Chairman and Executive Vice Chairman), CPPCC (Chairman and Executive Vice Chairman), the Supreme People ’s Court (President and Executive Vice President). Standard errors are clustered at both position unit and year level. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively.
Table 6: Leadership Premia in Promotion and Retirement
Promotion Retirement (1) (2) (1) (2)
CYLC 0.0397 0.0299 -0.111** -0.132*** [0.0450] [0.0456] [0.0439] [0.0430]
CYLC*CYLC Secretary 0.206** 0.242** -0.0797 -0.101 [0.0943] [0.0959] [0.0818] [0.0836]
Shanghai 0.0144 0.0281 -0.0353 -0.0614 [0.0371] [0.0373] [0.0493] [0.0498]
Shanghai*Shanghai Secretary 0.193*** 0.170** -0.0394 0.0212 [0.0717] [0.0727] [0.0724] [0.0737]
Princelings 0.0294 0.0368 -0.120** -0.106** [0.0471] [0.0468] [0.0489] [0.0484]
Princelings*Princelings Secretary 0.0158 -0.0125 -0.0161 -0.0772 [0.101] [0.103] [0.112] [0.116]
Military -0.0414** -0.0392** 0.0229 0.0160 [0.0185] [0.0190] [0.0280] [0.0287]
Military*Military Secretary -0.0239 -0.0313 -0.109*** -0.0465 [0.0207] [0.0262] [0.0324] [0.0392]
Controls Y Y Y Y Year F.E. N Y N Y
P-value (CYLC*CYLC Secretary=Shanghai*Shanghai Secretary) 0.8275 0.5902 0.7131 0.283 Observations 2998 2998 3113 3113 Adjusted R-squared 0.066 0.068 0.121 0.155
Notes: This table shows panel regressions of promotion and retirement indicators on the faction or group affiliation of Central Committee members interacting with the affiliation of the General Secretary. The sample includes all the members of the 8 th to 18 th Central Committees, except Politburo Standing Committee members are excluded from the promotion regressions. Promotion is a dummy which equals to 1 if a Central Committee member moves up in the rank defined by the four levels of Central Committee (1 PBSC, 2 PB, 3 CC, and 4 AC), 0 otherwise. Retirement is a dummy which equals to 1 if a Central Committee member retires from the Central Committee, 0 otherwise. Robust standard errors are reported in brackets. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively. Table 7: Leadership Premia in Power Score and Seat Shares
CYLC Shanghai (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Power AC Power PBSC CC seats PB seats PBSC seats AC seats CC seats PB seats score seats score seats
Secretary 0.0420*** 0.0233** 0.0340*** 0.0525 0.0955* 0.0105*** -0.00802 -0.0103* 0.0786*** 0.195*** [0.00876] [0.0102] [0.00995] [0.0327] [0.0555] [0.00382] [0.00739] [0.00587] [0.0206] [0.0398]
Observations 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 Adjusted R- squared 0.390 0.212 0.274 0.072 0.100 0.139 0.032 0.076 0.382 0.394
Military Princelings (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Power AC Power PBSC CC seats PB seats PBSC seats AC seats CC seats PB seats score seats score seats
Secretary 0.274*** 0.259*** 0.231*** 0.410*** 0.476*** 0.0516*** 0.0178*** 0.0271*** 0.169*** 0.361*** [0.0695] [0.0724] [0.0623] [0.0813] [0.0821] [0.00784] [0.00484] [0.00744] [0.0234] [0.0243]
Observations 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 Adjusted R- squared 0.533 0.541 0.485 0.583 0.558 0.165 0.046 0.044 0.179 0.465
Notes: This table shows regressions of the power scores and seat shares of each faction or group on the affiliation of the General Secretary. The dependent variables are the power score (Score), the share of Alternative Central Committee members (AC), the share of full Central Committee members (CC), the share of Politburo members (PB), and the share of Politburo Standing Committee members (PBSC). The independent variable Secretary is a dummy which equals to 1 if the General Secretary is from the same faction, 0 otherwise. The top left panel (column 1-5) reports the results for the CYLC faction. The top right panel (column 6-10) reports the results for the Shanghai faction. The bottom left panel (column 1-5) reports the results for the Military group, the bottom right panel (column 6-10) reports the results for the Princeling group. The sample period is from 1956 to 2014. Newey-West standard errors with 5 lags are reported in brackets. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively.
Table 8: Anticorruption and Factional Affiliation
Dependent Variable Corruption
CYLC 0.0272 [0.0237]
Shanghai -0.0229 [0.0237]
Princelings 0.0189 [0.0321]
Gender 0.0139 [0.0167]
Ethnicity -0.0191 [0.0168]
AC -0.0350** [0.0136]
CC -0.00920 [0.0129]
PB 0.0125 [0.0407]
PBSC 0.0328 [0.0583]
age -0.00596*** [0.000649]
Observations 2240 Adjusted R-squared 0.032
Notes: This table shows the cross-sectional regression of a corruption dummy on the faction or group affiliation of an official. Corruption is defined as 1 if the official is investigated or prosecuted according to ChinaFile and the China ’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) website, and 0 otherwise. The sample includes all the individuals except military personnel covered by China Vitae who have not retired in the year of 2007, the year of 17 th Party Congress. Robust standard errors are reported in brackets. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively.
Table 9: Parameter Estimates of the Faction Model
(1) (2) (3) (4)
0.045*** 0.162** 0.042*** 0.153** [0.008] [0.063] [0.009] [0.062]
0.029*** 0.193*** 0.033*** 0.241** [0.006] [0.068] [0.010] [0.103]
2.553*** 0.041*** 2.791*** 0.037*** [0.511] [0.007] [0.720] [0.008]
0.022*** 2.178*** 0.027*** [0.005] [0.758] [0.009]
2.526*** 2.898*** [0.514] [0.761]
1.956*** [0.699]
Log-LL -2766 -2747 -2766 -2746 Log- LLR -19.305 -0.378 -19.142 -
P-value 0.000 0.385 0.000 -
Notes: This table shows the parameter estimates of the faction model for different specifications. The sample includes all the members of the 14 th to 18 th Central Committees. Standard errors are reported in brackets. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively. The bottom panel shows log-likelihood, log-likelihood ratio, and p-value of the log- likelihood ratio tests for each specification against model (4) as the alternative hypothesis. The estimator employs 100 simulations for each Party Congress.
Table 10: Parameter Estimates of Alternative Models
Baseline Faction with Faction Individual Model Characteristics Random Seniority Red Red 0.162** 0.174** Entry 0.043 Entry 0.043 [0.063] [0.069] Blue Blue 0.193*** 0.201*** Entry 0.043 Entry 0.043 [0.068] [0.072] 0.041*** 0.043*** Age1 0.464*** [0.007] [0.008] [0.105] 0.022*** 0.023*** Age2 -1.213*** [0.005] [0.005] [0.127] 2.526*** 2.390*** Age3 -0.428*** [0.514] [0.531] [0.050] Princeling 0.413** [0.202] Military 0.129 [0.122] College -0.152 [0.164] Graduate -0.222* [0.119] Minority -0.813*** [0.208] Gender 0.926*** [0.237] Age1 0.361*** [0.109] Age2 -1.201*** [0.136] Age3 -0.421*** [0.055]
Log-LL -2747 -2617 -2763 -2660 Log- LLR -129.976 - - - P-value 0.000 - - - Vuong - - -13.429 -7.026 P-value - - 0.000 0.000
Notes: This table shows the parameter estimates of four alternative models of CCP promotion dynamics. The sample includes all the members of the 14 th to 18 th Central Committees. The probability of entry for seniority and random model is calibrated using the mean faction shares in the sample. Standard errors are reported in brackets. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively. The estimator employs 100 simulations for each Party Congress. The bottom panel shows log-likelihood, log-likelihood ratio, p-value of the log- likelihood ratio tests, Vuong test statistics, and the p-value of the Vuong tests for each model against the model “faction with individual characteristics ” column as the alternative hypothesis.
Table 11: Share of promotion of Each Faction by Level of the Central Committee
Counterfactual Counterfactual Data Baseline Faction Model (Leadership Premium ×2) (Li Keqiang Presidency) B N R B N R B N R B N R 14 th PB 18.18% 81.82% 0.00% 22.41% 68.25% 9.33% 33.76% 59.30% 6.95% 22.41% 68.25% 9.33% CC 2.80% 96.26% 0.93% 3.48% 93.19% 3.33% 6.09% 90.59% 3.32% 3.48% 93.19% 3.33% AC 2.83% 96.23% 0.94% 4.01% 92.65% 3.34% 6.60% 90.24% 3.16% 4.01% 92.65% 3.34% 15 th PB 22.73% 68.18% 9.09% 19.42% 67.28% 13.30% 32.43% 53.14% 14.43% 19.42% 67.28% 13.30% CC 5.61% 89.72% 4.67% 3.40% 92.77% 3.83% 6.16% 89.29% 4.55% 3.40% 92.77% 3.83% AC 6.19% 85.84% 7.96% 3.85% 92.40% 3.75% 5.60% 89.51% 4.89% 3.85% 92.40% 3.75% 16 th PB 9.09% 63.64% 27.27% 11.50% 69.25% 19.25% 9.96% 61.59% 28.45% 11.50% 69.25% 19.25% CC 1.94% 85.44% 12.62% 1.68% 91.83% 6.49% 1.81% 86.49% 11.70% 1.68% 91.83% 6.49% AC 2.44% 94.31% 3.25% 2.34% 90.61% 7.05% 2.27% 86.57% 11.16% 2.34% 90.61% 7.05% 17 th PB 22.73% 63.64% 13.64% 16.27% 63.70% 20.03% 16.70% 54.83% 28.47% 14.28% 63.40% 22.32% CC 4.31% 90.52% 5.17% 2.31% 90.94% 6.75% 3.27% 85.34% 11.39% 1.82% 90.54% 7.64% AC 3.17% 88.10% 8.73% 2.53% 90.52% 6.95% 3.02% 86.51% 10.47% 1.90% 90.46% 7.64% 18 th
Notes: This table shows the share of promotions of each faction by level of the Central Committee in the data and predicted by the different models. The share of promotions is defined as the ratio between the number of promotions of a faction and the total number of promotions to this level. The sample includes all the members of the 14 th to 18 th Central Committees. The first panel shows the share of promotions of each faction in the data. The second panel shows the prediction by the baseline faction model. The third panel shows the counterfactual prediction in which the leadership premium is doubled comparing to the baseline faction model. The last panel shows the counterfactual prediction in which Li Keqiang becomes President in the 18 th Party Congress.
Table 12: Tests of Xi’s Factional Affiliation
Baseline Faction Princelings Xi as Model as Faction Neutral 0.162** 0.178** 0.164** [0.063] [0.074] [0.064] 0.193*** 0.153** 0.195*** [0.068] [0.067] [0.069] 0.041*** 0.364*** 0.044*** [0.007] [0.124] [0.008] 0.022*** 0.050*** 0.027*** [0.005] [0.009] [0.006] 2.526*** 0.027*** 2.150*** [0.514] [0.006] [0.437] 0.059*** [0.010] 1.876*** [0.394] + 0.564 [0.358]
Log LL -2747 -2866 -2748 Vuong - -15.850 -0.197 P-value - 0.000 0.422
Notes: This table shows the parameter estimates of three models of CCP promotion dynamics. The sample includes all the members of the 14 th to 18 th Central Committees. Standard errors are reported in brackets. The estimator employs 100 simulations for each Party Congress. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively. The bottom panel shows log-likelihood, Vuong test statistics, and the p-value of the Vuong tests for each model against the baseline faction model as the alternative hypothesis.
Table 13: Out-of-sample Forecast of 19th Central Committee
Xi as Shanghai Gang B N R PB 24.18% 66.37% 9.45% CC 3.84% 92.72% 3.44% AC 4.35% 91.52% 4.13%
Xi as Neutral PB 14.12% 75.53% 10.35% CC 2.20% 94.03% 3.77% AC 2.28% 93.77% 3.95%
Notes: This table shows the aggregate share of promotions of each faction at each level of the Central Committee in the 19 th Central Committee predicted by the faction model with individual characteristics. The share of promotions is defined as the ratio between the number of promotions of a faction and the total number of promotions to this level. The sample used to estimate the parameters includes all the members of the 14 th to 18th Central Committees. The forecast employs 100 simulations for this Party Congress.
Online Appendix of “Factions in Nondemocracies: Theory and Evidence from the Chinese Communist Party ”
Patrick Francois, Francesco Trebbi and Kairong Xiao
Appendix Figure 1: Seat Share of Each Faction or Group in the Central Committee
Notes: This graph shows the share of seats of each faction or group in four levels of Central Committee over time. The four levels of Central Committee include Alternative Central Committee members (AC), full Central Committee members (CC), Politburo members (PB), and Politburo Standing Committee members (PBSC). The vertical line indicates the year of 1990, the first time when a civilian chairman, Jiang Zemin, took over the Central Military Committee. The share of seats is normalized to zero in 1990. The upper panel shows the whole sample period from 1956 to 2012, the lower panel shows the post-Deng period from 1990 to 2012.
Appendix Figure 2: Seat Share of Each Constituency in the Central Committee
Notes: This graph shows the share of seats of each constituency in four levels of Central Committee over time. The four levels of Central Committee are Alternative Central Committee members (AC), full Central Committee members (CC), Politburo members (PB), and Politburo Standing Committee members (PBSC). The vertical line indicates the year of 1990, the first time when a civilian chairman, Jiang Zemin, took over the Central Military Committee. The share of seats is normalized to zero in 1990. The upper panel shows the whole sample period from 1956 to 2012, the lower panel shows the post-Deng period from 1990 to 2012.
Appendix Figure 3: Age of Politburo Members of Each Faction
Notes: This graph shows scatter plots of ages of each Politburo member by faction over time. The horizontal line is the age of 68. The vertical line indicates the year of 1990, the first time when a civilian chairman, Jiang Zemin, took over the Central Military Committee. The share of seats is normalized to zero in 1990.
Appendix Table 1: Data Sources
Sample Source Period Description 4,494 individuals who held important positions in government, politics, the military, education, China Vitae 1992-2014 business, and the media since 1992
Central Committee Member 1,853 individuals who are members of Central Data 1956-2012 Committee of the CPC
193 "tigers" investigated in the Chinese Anti- ChinaFile/Wikipedia/CCDI 2012-2016 corruption Campaign since 2012
China Data Online 1956-2012 Provincial population and GDP
Appendix Table 2: Regression Samples
Corresponding Regression Sample Sample period tables Cross-section of 31 provinces 1956-2014 Table 3 Position-year panel of important positions 1992-2014 Table 4 and 5 Individual-C.C. session panel 8th -18 th C.C. Table 6 Time series of power score of each faction 1956-2014 Table 7 Cross-section of individuals 2007-2014 Table 8 Individual-C.C. session panel 14 th -18 th C.C. Table 9-13
Appendix Table 3: Promotion, Retirement, and Factional Affiliation
Promotion Retirement (1) (2) (1) (2)
CYLC 0.102** 0.0998** -0.142*** -0.162*** [0.0402] [0.0410] [0.0382] [0.0377]
Shanghai 0.0915*** 0.0961*** -0.0809** -0.0725* [0.0338] [0.0337] [0.0396] [0.0395]
Princelings 0.0389 0.0373 -0.103** -0.110** [0.0422] [0.0421] [0.0443] [0.0446]
Military -0.0265** -0.0175 -0.0475** -0.0201 [0.0135] [0.0140] [0.0198] [0.0201]
Gender 0.118*** 0.114*** -0.0356 -0.0514 [0.0189] [0.0192] [0.0323] [0.0317]
Age (59-62) -0.138*** -0.146*** 0.305*** 0.282*** [0.0141] [0.0150] [0.0228] [0.0233]
Age (63-) -0.145*** -0.155*** 0.425*** 0.399*** [0.0135] [0.0150] [0.0216] [0.0225]
College 0.0678*** 0.0530*** -0.0591*** -0.114*** [0.0125] [0.0147] [0.0191] [0.0216]
Graduate School 0.0435* 0.0271 -0.0588** -0.113*** [0.0225] [0.0248] [0.0242] [0.0267]
Mishu 0.0531 0.0498 -0.115*** -0.125*** [0.0330] [0.0330] [0.0364] [0.0358]
Ethnicity -0.0579*** -0.0606*** -0.0525* -0.0611** [0.0198] [0.0201] [0.0289] [0.0286]
Abroad 0.0164 0.0230 -0.0694** -0.0584** [0.0234] [0.0247] [0.0287] [0.0288]
Year F.E. N Y N Y
p value (CYLC=Shanghai) 0.8439 0.9435 0.2493 0.0891 Observations 2997 2997 3045 3045 Adjusted R-squared 0.060 0.062 0.143 0.172
Notes: This table shows the panel regression of promotions and retirement dummy on the faction affiliation of Central Committee members. The sample includes all members of the 8 th to 18 th Central Committees, except Politburo Standing Committee members are excluded from the promotion regression. Promotion is a dummy which equals to 1 if a Central Committee member moves up in the rank defined by the four levels of Central Committee (1 PBSC, 2 PB, 3 CC, and 4 AC), 0 otherwise. Retirement is a dummy which equals to 1 if a Central Committee member retires from the Central Committee, 0 otherwise. Robust standard errors are reported in brackets. ***,**,* indicates 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent significance level respectively.