NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FACTIONS IN NONDEMOCRACIES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY Patrick Francois Francesco Trebbi Kairong Xiao Working Paper 22775 http://www.nber.org/papers/w22775 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2016 The authors would like to thank Matilde Bombardini, Wei Cui, Chang Tai Hsieh, Ruixue Jia, Li Hao, Thorsten Rogall, and seminar participants at various institutions for their comments and suggestions. Francesco Trebbi gratefully acknowledges support by the Canadian Institute For Advanced Research and the Social Sciences and Humanites Research Council of Canada. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2016 by Patrick Francois, Francesco Trebbi, and Kairong Xiao. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Factions in Nondemocracies: Theory and Evidence from the Chinese Communist Party Patrick Francois, Francesco Trebbi, and Kairong Xiao NBER Working Paper No. 22775 October 2016 JEL No. P3,P48 ABSTRACT This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the factional arrangements and dynamics within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the governing political party of the People's Republic of China. Our empirical analysis ranges from the end of the Deng Xiaoping era to the current Xi Jinping presidency and covers the appointments of both national and provincial officials. We present a set of new empirical regularities within the CCP and a theoretical framework suited to model factional politics within single-party regimes. Patrick Francois Kairong Xiao University of British Columbia Sauder School of Business 6000 Iona Dr. University of British Columbia Vancouver, B.C. Canada V6T 1L4 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC and CIFAR V6T 1Z2 Canada [email protected] [email protected] Francesco Trebbi University of British Columbia 6000 Iona Drive Vancouver, BC V6T 1L4 Canada and CIFAR and also NBER [email protected] 1 Introduction Ebcs pUpYr prYsYhts U tbYirYtcWUf UhX YgpcrcWUf UhUfyscs i` tbY chtYrhUf iraUhc- Utcih i` (bchUs pifctcWUf fchWbpch" tbY (bchYsY (igguhcst AUrty (((A) &s tbY rYacgY pUrty i` tbY AYipfYs CYpuVfcW i` (bchU (AC(), tbY ((A cs XY durY UhX XY `UWti tbY VY-Uff UhX YhX-Uff i` pifctcWUf UWtcvcty ch tbY sYWihX fUraYst YWihigy UhX tbY gist pipufius Wiuhtry ch tbY wirfX tiXUy Ebcs gitcvUtYs tbY chtYrYst i` pifctcWUf YWihigcsts ch tbY ((A EbY hihtrUhspUrYht UhX i`tYh ch`irgUf hUturY i` YfctY chtYrUWtcih wctbch U Wiuhtry fUWecha WigpYtctcvY YfYWtcihs UhX wctb U rcWb bcstiry i` ch`irgUf pifct- cWUf diustcha Ugiha `UWtcihUf fYUXYrs rUcsYs `irgcXUVfY iVstUWfYs ti U rcairius pifctcWi-YWihigcW UhUfyscs EbY YWihigcW fctYrUturY ih tbY chtYrhUf iraUhcUtcih (UhX, wY wcff sYY, `UWtcihUf WigpYtctcih) Ut tbY bcabYst fYvYfs i` tbY (bchYsY aivYrhgYht cs fcgctYX AifctcWUf sWcYhtcsts `iWusYX ih (bchU stuXcYs bUvY VYYh girY UttYhtcvY, Vut Ufsi i`tYh girY quUfctUtcvY UhX XYsWrcptcvY, Ut fYUst uhtcf rYWYhtfy EbY ((A rYgUchs tiXUy a secretive, selective organization of about 65 mil- lion members who have positions of inuence in all sectors of Chinese society... 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