European Economy. 3/2004. Public Finances In
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ISSN 0379-0991 10 KC-AR-04-003-EN-C EUROPEAN ECONOMY EUROPEAN No 3 / 2004 EUROPEAN ECONOMY EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Price (excluding VAT) in Luxembourg: EUR 50 European Economy (6 issues minimum per year): EUR 150 The annual subscription runs from 1 January to 31 December of each year. Payments to be made only to sales agents on the list (see inside back cover for details). These are surface mail rates; for air subscription rates please apply to the sales offices. No 3 / 2004 http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance ISBN 92-894-4958-6 Public finances in EMU ,!7IJ2I9-eejfii! 2004 SALES AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Publications for sale produced by the Office for Official Publications of the European Communities are available from our sales agents throughout the world. How do I set about obtaining a publication? Once you have obtained the list of sales agents, contact the sales agent of your choice and place your order. 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Unless otherwise indicated, the texts are published under the responsibility of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission, BU1, B-1049 Brussels, to which enquiries other than those related to sales and subscriptions should be addressed. European Commission EUROPEAN ECONOMY Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 2004 Number 3 © European Communities, 2004 Printed in Belgium Public finances in EMU — 2004 Abbreviations and symbols used Member States BE Belgium CZ Czech Republic DK Denmark DE Germany EE Estonia EL Greece ES Spain FR France IE Ireland IT Italy CY Cyprus LV Latvia LT Lithuania LU Luxembourg HU Hungary MT Malta NL The Netherlands AT Austria PL Poland PT Portugal SI Slovenia SK Slovakia FI Finland SE Sweden UK United Kingdom EUR-12 European Union Member States having adopted the single currency (BE, DE, EL, ES, FR, IE, IT, LU, NL, AU, PT, FI), i.e. countries participating in economic and monetary union without a derogation EUR-11 EUR-12 excluding LU EU-25 European Union, 25 Member States EU-15 European Union, 15 Member States before 1 May 2004 (EUR-12 plus DK, SE and UK) EU-14 EU-15 excluding LU EU-10 European Union, 10 Member States that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 (CZ, EE, CY, LV, LT, HU, MT, PL, SI, SK) Currencies EUR euro ECU European currency unit DKK Danish krone GBP Pound sterling SEK Swedish krona CAD Canadian dollar CHF Swiss franc JPY Japanese yen SUR Russian rouble USD US dollar iv Other abbreviations bn, billion 1 000 million CEECs Central and east European countries CPI consumer price index EC European Commission ECB European Central Bank ECSC European Coal and Steel Community EDF European Development Fund EIB European Investment Bank EMCF European Monetary Cooperation Fund EMS European monetary system EMU economic and monetary union ERM exchange rate mechanism Euratom European Atomic Energy Community Eurostat Statistical Office of the European Communities FDI foreign direct investment GDP (GNP) gross domestic (national) product GFCF gross fixed capital formation HICP harmonised index of consumer prices ILO International Labour Organisation IMF International Monetary Fund LDCs less developed countries Mio million Mrd 1 000 million NCI New Community Instrument NMS new Member State OCTs overseas countries and territories OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries PEP pre-accession economic programmes PPS purchasing power standard SCP stability and convergence programmes SGP Stability and Growth Pact qoq quarter-on-quarter percentage change SMEs small and medium-sized enterprises VATvalue added tax yoyyear-on-year percentage change : not available – none v Acknowledgements This report was prepared in the Directorate-General of Economic and Financial Affairs under the direction of Klaus Regling, Director-General, and Servaas Deroose, Director for the Economy of the Euro Area and the Union. The main contributors were Elena Flores, Gabriele Giudice, Karine Jabet, Andrea Montanino, Marko Mršnik, Ales- sandro Turrini and Peter Wierts. Specific contributions were provided by Juan Ramon Calaf Sole, Jonas Fischer, Dermot Hodson, Sven Langedijk, Martin Larch, Jerome Lefebvre, João Nogueira Martins, Andreja Poje, Jan In ‘T Veld and Johan Verhaeven. The coun- try chapters in Part V were prepared in the Directorate for the Economies of the Member States under the responsibility of Marco Buti. The contributors were Ronald Albers, Joaquim Ayuso Casals, Georg Busch, Juan Ramon Calaf Sole, Zdeněk Čech, Nikoloas Chryssanthou, Nathalie Darnaut, Francisco de Castro Fernández, Per Eckefeldt, Luis Fau Se- bastian, Mans Hector, Timo Hirvonen, Heinz Jansen, Barbara Kauffmann, Filip Keereman, Viktoria Kovacs, Martin Larch, John Macdonald, Madeleine Mahovsky, João Medeiros, Carlos Martinez Mongay, Jens Matthiessen, Mare Mo- ra, Laurent Moulin, Willem Noë, Lucio R. Pench, Mateja Peternelj, Hervé Piffeteau, Elena Reitano, Peer Ritter, José Luis Robledo Fraga, Richard Salt, Agnieszka Skuratowicz, Siegfried Steinlein, Charlotte Van Hooydonk, Kristine Vlagsma, Helga Vogelmann. Statistical and editorial assistance was provided by Fabrizio Melcarne. Comments and suggestions by colleagues in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs as well as by other services of the Commission are gratefully acknowledged. Secretarial support was provided by Maria Davi-Pilato and Aliki Drossou. Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent to: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Public Finance Unit, with particular reference to the euro zone European Commission B-1049 Brussels or by e-mail to [email protected] vi Contents Summary and main conclusions . 1 Part I: Current developments and prospects . 9 1. Budgetary developments in the euro area and EU Member States. 13 1.1. Short-term developments and prospects for the budget balance and public debt . 13 1.2. Government revenue and expenditure . 16 1.3. The fiscal stance and policy-mix . 17 2. Overview of the 2003 updates of the stability and convergence programmes . 23 2.1. The medium-term budgetary targets . 23 2.2. Composition of the budgetary adjustment . 27 3. Overview of the 2003 updates of the pre-accession economic programmes and the 2004 convergence programmes . 32 3.1. Introduction . 32 3.2. 2003 updates of the pre-accession economic programmes . 32 3.3. 2004 convergence programmes . 38 4. The sustainability of public finances based on the 2003 updates of stability and convergence programmes 42 4.1. Introduction . 42 4.2. How the sustainability of public finances was assessed . .42 4.3. Policy conclusions per Member State . 49 4.4. Conclusion . 52 Part II: Evolving budgetary surveillance . 53 1. Moving towards a clearer and more effective framework . 58 1.1. A sound framework which needs strengthening . .58 1.2. Developments in the coordination of budgetary policies. 59 1.3. The strategy pursued after the events of 25 November . 60 2. Implementing the Stability and Growth Pact . 63 2.1. Introduction . 63 2.2. The implementation of the EDP for euro-area countries in excessive deficit . 63 2.3. The surveillance mechanisms since spring 2003 . 65 2.4. The application of the excessive deficit procedure to the 10 new Member States . 74 3. Improving the analysis of budgetary developments . 80 3.1. Introduction . 80 3.2. Non-cyclical temporary budgetary effects. 80 3.3. The use and interpretation of cyclically adjusted balances . .86 vii 4. Budgetary risks and contingent liabilities. 94 4.1. Introduction . 94 4.2. A taxonomy of government liabilities . 95 4.3. Sources of budgetary risk . 98 4.4. Why risk matters for government finances . 101 4.5. Monitoring and containing budgetary risks. 102 5. Increasing the focus on debt and economic developments. 106 5.1. Introduction . 106 5.2. A prudent reference value for the debt . 107 5.3. An assessment of debt developments . 109 5.4. Strengthening economic surveillance by jointly assessing deficit and debt developments. 114 5.5. How can debt developments be better considered in the numerical rules? . 117 5.6. Conclusions . 121 6. Integrating the budgetary processes . 125 6.1. Introduction . 125 6.2. Moving to a proper EU semester . 126 6.3. Strengthening the national budgetary surveillance and performance . 127 7. Conclusions. ..