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JU L 1 4 2006 LIBRARIES I BARKER 2 Real Lessons for Venture Capitalists in Multimodal Logistics Systems

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JU L 1 4 2006 LIBRARIES I BARKER 2 Real Lessons for Venture Capitalists in Multimodal Logistics Systems Real Lessons for Venture Capitalists in Multimodal Logistics Systems. Where does Profitability come from? by Nikolaos Th. Veniamis BSc in Management University of Manchester (Manchester Business School), 2005 SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF S.M. IN OCEAN SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT AT THE MASSACHUTETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JUNE 2006 @ 2006 Nikolaos Th. Veniamis. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author:.... ---- .......................... Department of Mechanical Engineering '- I May 12, 2006 C ertified by :................................ Dr. Henry S. Marcus, Professor of Marine Systems Thesis Supervisor A ccep ted b y :........... .......................... ....... ........................................... Dr. Lallit Anand, Professor of Mechanical Engineering Chairman, Department Committee for Graduate Students MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOCY JU L 1 4 2006 LIBRARIES I BARKER 2 Real lessons for Venture Capitalists in Multimodal Logistics Systems. Where does Profitability come from? by Nikolaos Th. Veniamis Submitted to the Department of Mechanical Engineering of May 14, 2006 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Ocean Systems Management ABSTRACT In this thesis we review three case studies in multimodal logistics and transportation systems and analyze the reasons that lead to failure or success. We present the business idea and model of each case study and study the factors that determine revenues and costs, as well as the expectations of the case regarding the evolution of these factors in the future. We observe the ex post behavior of the project and explain which module of the business (revenues, costs, management) performed better or worse than expected. This analysis will help managers, investors and primarily the venture capital industry understand the main reasons of failure or success behind a business story and reveal some hidden factors, which may crucially determine the outcome of the business. We will perform our analysis qualitatively, identifying which part of the model (revenues, costs) had the biggest impact on the divergence between expected profits and what actually happened. Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Henry S. Marcus Title: Professor of Marine Systems 3 BIOGRAPHY Nikolaos Veniamis attended the University of Manchester, particularly the Manchester Business School, United Kingdom, from 2002 to 2005, where he received his Bachelor of Science in Management. In August 2005, Veniamis was accepted as a graduate student in the Ocean Systems Management Program in the Department of Mechanical Engineering (formerly Ocean Engineering) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). 4 AKNOWLEDGEMENTS Throughout the time I have spent researching, writing and structuring this thesis, I have been offered support from people who have taken interest in my work. I would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the assistance of these people. Firstly, I owe gratitude to my advisor Professor Marcus, who was always willing to give me direction as advice, which proved to be substantial. Professor Marcus played a decisive role in my academic and professional development. His knowledge and guidance expanded my interests in the broad disciplines of system management and transportation science. I believe that he has provided me with all-important knowledge to have a successful career in the shipping industry. In addition, I want to show all my appreciation to a good friend Dr G. Dikos (former MIT student) whose knowledge and experience were crucial for the completion of this thesis. This thesis could not have been completed without his encouragement and direction. Furthermore, I have to thank Mr X. Kavyris and Mr C. Karagiannis for their assistance, suggestions and accessibility for various issues and providing me with inside information that were crucial to me so as to see how theory (business plans) differs from reality. At this point I need to express my appreciation to the Presidents of the three companies that gave me their business plans. I also want to thank my brother Lefteris and my sister Merini and all my friends for supporting me psychologically throughout this year and helping me to surpass every problem that arose. With all my love, I dedicate this thesis to my parents who were always next to me throughout all my difficulties in my life by all means. I would like to express my gratitude to them. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 3 Biography ....................................................................................................................... 4 AKNOW LEDGEM ENTS ............................................................................................ 5 Table Of Contents ...................................................................................................... 6 List of Figures................................................................................................................. 8 List of Tables .................................................................................................................. 9 Chapter 1 ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.1 Introduction - Description................................................................................. 10 1.2 Structure of the thesis .......................................................................................... 11 Chap ter 2 ...................................................................................................................... 13 Case Study 1 ................................................................................................................. 14 2.1 Brief history of the company and its aspirations................................................ 15 2.2 The m arket overview ........................................................................................ 20 2.2.1 The Assets ................................................................................................ 20 2.2.2 Dem and .................................................................................................... 21 2.2.2.i Steel ........................................................................................................... 22 2.2.2.ii Iron ore................................................................................................... 23 2.2.2.iii Coal..........................................................................................................23 2.2.2.ix Grain .................................................................................................... 24 2.2.3 Supply ....................................................................................................... 24 2.2.4 M arket overview - outlook ........................................................................ 28 2.3 Company 1 Shipping Company ........................................................................ 29 2.4 Considerations for Partnerships with Company 1.............................................. 30 2.5 Investm ent opportunity...................................................................................... 33 2.6 Liquidation Options and Exit Strategies........................................................... 36 2.7 The Deal: W hat did actually happen .................................. ............................. 39 Chapter 3 ...................................................................................................................... 42 Case Study 2 ................................................................................................................. 43 3.1 Brief history of the company and its aspirations................................................ 44 3.2 The M arket Overview ...................................................................................... 46 3.2.1 Target Segm ents ........................................................................................ 47 3.2.2 Dem and ..................................................................................................... 48 3.2.3 Dem and and Trends................................................................................... 49 3.2.4 Com petition and M arket Summ ary ........................................................... 50 3.2.5 Pricing Policy ............................................................................................ 53 3.3 Com pany 2 - Ice Cannes Producer & W arehouses ............................................... 54 3.4 Considerations for Partnership with Company 2 ............................................. 59 3.5 Investm ent Opportunity ................................................................................... 61 3.6 Liquidity Options ............................................................................................ 64 3.7 The Deal: W hat did actually happen .................................. ............................. 65 6 3.8 Recom mendations to VC's. .............................................................................. 68 Chapter 4 .....................................................................................................................
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