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Two Countries, One Forest Special Report No. 1 .................................................................................................................................................... The Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion Priority Locations for Conservation Action The Science Working Group of Two Countries, One Forest/Deux Pays, Une Forêt is comprised of, in alphabetical order: Mark G. Anderson (The Eastern Resource Office, The Nature Conservancy), Robert F. Baldwin (Two Countries, One Forest and Clemson University), Karen Beazley (Dalhousie University), Charlie Bettigole (Wildlands Project), Graham Forbes (University of New Brunswick), Louise Gratton (Nature Conservancy of Canada), Justina C. Ray (Wildlife Conservation Society Canada), Conrad Reining (Wildlands Project), Stephen C. Trombulak (Middlebury College), and Gillian Woolmer (Wildlife Conservation Society Canada). Correct citation for this report: Trombulak, S.C., M.G. Anderson, R.F. Baldwin, K. Beazley, J.C. Ray, C. Reining, G. Woolmer, C. Bettigole, G. Forbes, and L. Gratton. 2008. The Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion: Priority Locations for Conservation Action. Two Countries, One Forest Special Report No. 1. www.2c1forest.org [email protected] 603.456.3239 P.O. Box 421 Warner, NH 03278 USA ©2008 Two Countries, One Forest Contents .......................................................................................................................... Executive Summary . 2 English . 2 Français . 4 1. Introduction . 6 2. Ecological Description of the Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion . 10 3. Critical Ecological Features . 12 The Nature Conservancy/Nature Conservancy of Canada analysis . 12 The Wildlands Project analysis . 16 4. Threats on the Landscape . 20 Overview of threats to the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion . 20 2C1Forest approach to modeling threats . 21 Current Human Footprint . 21 Future Human Footprint . 23 Conclusions . 28 5. Irreplaceability for Conservation . 29 Overview of methods for assessing irreplaceability . 29 Results: Irreplaceability with low, medium, and high targets . 32 Conclusions . 34 6. Priority Conservation Areas: The Intersection of Irreplaceability and Vulnerability . 36 Assigning irreplaceability and vulnerability scores to planning units . 37 Planning units . 38 Relative conservation priorities . 40 Comparison between types of planning units—Current Human Footprint . 40 Comparison between current and future threats . 46 Implications for conservation planning . 46 7. Conclusions . 50 Key findings . 50 Next steps . 53 8. Resources for Practitioners . 55 Endnotes . 57 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... Two Countries, One Forest/ on the best and most recently available data on Deux Pays, Une Forêt (2C1Forest) human population, transportation and energy dis- tribution networks, and changes in land cover—and is a major Canadian-U.S. collaborative of conserva- projections of Future Human Footprints under tion organizations, researchers, foundations, and alternative scenarios of future population growth conservation-minded individuals. Our international rates and settlement patterns. community is focused on protection, conservation, Second, we characterized irreplaceability and restoration of forests and natural heritage from through a process of systematic conservation plan- New York to Nova Scotia, across the Northern ning, identifying sets of locations that together sat- Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion. isfy targets established for protection of threatened This ecoregion encompasses over 330,000 km2 and endangered species and ecosystems, source in the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada, habitat for focal carnivores, and abiotic landscape including all or a part of northern New York, features. Because many different sets of locations Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, southern can equally satisfy the targets, locations are charac- Québec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince terized by the percentage of sets in which they are Edward Island. It is ecologically diverse, dominated included, ranging from always being included in a by spruce-fir and northern hardwood forests, exten- set (and thus the location is completely irreplace- sive coastlines, inland mountain ranges, and glacial- able) to never being included (and thus is complete- ly carved landscapes. It is an ecological transition ly replaceable). In addition, we assessed irreplace- zone between northern boreal and southern temper- ability under three different levels of targets: low (a ate forests, and will come increasingly to serve as a small number of replicates required for each ecolog- north-south biological corridor for species as their ical feature to consider the goals satisfied), medi- ranges shift in response to climate change. um, and high. This report describes the results of a research ini- Third, we subdivided the entire ecoregion into tiative launched by 2C1Forest to identify irreplace- subregions and assessed the irreplaceability and vul- able and vulnerable locations in the Northern nerability scores for each subregion to identify those Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion for the purpose of with (a) high irreplaceability and high vulnerability identifying priority locations for conservation action. (signifying a high priority for conservation action), Our methodology is data driven, comprehensive (b) high irreplaceability but low vulnerability, and across the entire ecoregion, and spatially explicit at a high vulnerability but low irreplaceability (moderate high resolution, which allows our results to be repli- priority), and (c) low irreplaceability and low vulner- cated and applied at numerous spatial scales. Our ability (low priority). We used three different meth- approach to identifying priority locations involved ods for subdividing the ecoregion: a regularly dis- three interlocking lines of analysis. tributed network of 10-km2 hexagons, hydrologic First, we characterized vulnerability through units (related to watershed boundaries), and bio- analysis of the ecoregion’s Human Footprint, a rela- physical units (related to ecological and geological tive measure of the degree of landscape transforma- characteristics). tion from its completely natural condition. We For conservation practitioners, the key points assessed both the Current Human Footprint—based revealed in these analyses are the following: { 2} ~ The Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion ~ When target levels are low, broad areas of the still retains large areas of wild, relatively ecoregion (almost 50%) never contribute to untransformed land. In particular, these include achieving the specified conservation goals. the Adirondack Mountains and Tug Hill Plateau However, as target levels increase, the potential of New York, northern Maine, the Gaspé contribution of much of these areas also Peninsula of Québec, and both the northern increases, indicating that virtually all areas in and southern tips of Nova Scotia. the ecoregion have the capacity to contribute to achieving conservation goals if the desired level ~ While the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecore- of ecological replication is high enough. gion is still one of the most forested and “wild” ecoregions in eastern North America, it may be ~ Some locations consistently emerge with the same one of the most vulnerable simply because so priority ranking for conservation action regardless much undeveloped land is unprotected and of the scenarios used to measure irreplaceability within reach of densely populated areas. and vulnerability, or how the ecoregion is subdi- Threats to the Northern Appalachian/Acadian vided. In contrast, the priority rankings for other ecoregion’s land area are currently concentrated locations vary and are highly sensitive to both the in settled landscapes but may rapidly expand assessment method used and how subdivision is outwards given changes in social or ecological achieved. The fact that there is not one unique conditions that would encourage rapid human objective measurement of priority for all locations population growth and settlement (e.g., cli- does not undercut this approach to assessing pri- mate, location of large industries, and availabili- ority locations for conservation action. Rather, it ty of land with high amenity value). highlights the importance of assessing the robust- ness of all spatially explicit conservation initiatives ~ We assume that all lands that are currently per- and selecting the appropriate spatial scale on manently protected against conversion to devel- which to base planning decisions. opment will continue to be a part of the ecore- gion’s system of conserved lands. Given this ~ These analyses do not include a comprehensive assumption, at low target levels for conserva- assessment of priorities to achieve functional tion of threatened and endangered species and connectivity across the ecoregion, either for eco- ecosystems, source habitat for focal carnivores, logical needs in the present time (e.g., move- and abiotic landscape features, approximately ment of wide-ranging species) or in the future 27% of the landscape is irreplaceable for achiev- (e.g., ecosystem response to climate change). ing these goals. However, major locations important for struc- tural connectivity, linking large regions with low ~ As target levels for conservation increase, the degrees of transformation, are revealed and amount of land needed to meet overall conser- include

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