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AESO 2019 Annual Market Statistics AESO 2019 Annual Market Statistics MARCH 2020 The information contained in this report is published for information purposes only. While the AESO strives to make the information contained in this document as timely and accurate as possible, the AESO makes no claims, promises, or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the contents of this document, and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions. As such, any reliance placed on the information contained herein is done so at the reader’s sole risk. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 FIGURE 19: Annual interchange utilization with WECC region 20 Price of electricity 3 FIGURE 20: Annual interchange utilization with Pool price increased nine per cent 3 Saskatchewan 20 TABLE 1: Annual market price statistics 3 Capacity factor reflects fall in imports 21 FIGURE 1: Monthly average pool price 3 FIGURE 21: Annual capacity factor by transfer path 21 FIGURE 2: 2019 pool price duration curve 4 Alberta remains a net importer 22 FIGURE 22: Annual intertie transfers by province or state 22 Spark spread increased six per cent 5 FIGURE 23: Monthly average intertie transfers 22 FIGURE 3: 2018 and 2019 daily average spark spread 5 Achieved premium to pool price increased 23 Alberta Internal Load 6 FIGURE 24: Annual achieved premium to pool price Average load decreased half per cent 6 on imported energy 23 TABLE 2: Annual load statistics 6 Wind generation 23 FIGURE 4: 2018 and 2019 monthly average load 7 Wind generation served five per cent of FIGURE 5: Annual load duration curves 7 Alberta Internal Load 23 Seasonal load 8 TABLE 4: Annual wind generation statistics 23 TABLE 3: Seasonal peak load 8 FIGURE 25: Monthly wind capacity and generation 24 Installed generation 8 Wind capacity factor decreased 24 Total generation capacity increased three per cent 8 FIGURE 26: Annual wind capacity factor duration curves 24 FIGURE 6: Annual generation capacity by technology 9 Regional wind 25 TABLE 5: 2019 regional wind statistics 25 Generation availability 9 FIGURE 27: Monthly wind capacity factor by region 25 FIGURE 7: Annual availability factor by technology 9 Most available combined-cycle power dispatched 10 Solar generation 26 FIGURE 8: Annual availability utilization factor FIGURE 28: Total monthly output of Brooks Solar 26 by technology 10 FIGURE 29: 2018 and 2019 seasonal average hourly Combined-cycle generation capacity factor output of Brooks Solar 26 remains the highest 11 Ancillary services 27 FIGURE 9: Annual capacity factor by technology 11 Cost of operating reserve decreased 27 Gas generation supplied 43 per cent of net-to-grid energy 11 TABLE 6: Annual operating reserve statistics 28 FIGURE 10: Annual average net-to-grid generation FIGURE 30: 2019 market share of active operating reserve 28 by technology 12 Transmission must-run and dispatch down service 29 FIGURE 11: 2019 monthly average net-to-grid generation TABLE 7: Annual TMR and DDS statistics 29 by technology 12 FIGURE 31: Monthly TMR and DDS dispatched energy 30 Simple-cycle gas realized highest achieved premium Uplift payments 30 to pool price 13 TABLE 8: Annual uplift payments 30 FIGURE 12: Annual achieved premium to pool price on Payments to suppliers on the margin increased 31 generated energy 13 Transmission constraint rebalancing payments 31 Coal-fired generation sets marginal price in 79 per cent of hours 15 Flexibility 31 FIGURE 13: Annual marginal price-setting technology 15 Net demand variability 32 FIGURE 32: Distribution of 10-minute ramps for variable Supply adequacy 15 generation, load and net demand in 2019 32 Supply cushion decreased 11 per cent 16 Forecast uncertainty 32 FIGURE 14: Monthly supply cushion 16 Short-term load forecast uncertainty 33 Reserve margin increased five per cent 16 FIGURE 33: Distribution of day-ahead load forecast in 2019 33 FIGURE 15: Annual reserve margin 17 Wind power forecast uncertainty 33 Imports and exports 17 FIGURE 34: Distribution of day-ahead wind forecast in 2019 34 Transfer path rating remained stable 17 Unit on/off cycling 34 FIGURE 16: Annual path rating by transfer path 18 FIGURE 35: Average number of on/off cycles per generating Intertie availability factor 18 unit, by technology and year 35 FIGURE 17: Annual availability factor by transfer path 19 Final notes 35 Availability utilization 19 FIGURE 18: Annual availability utilization by transfer path 19 2019 Annual Market Statistics 1 Executive summary The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) facilitates a fair, efficient and openly competitive market for electricity and provides for the safe, reliable and economic operation of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES). The AESO 2019 Annual Market Statistics report provides a summary of key market information over the past year and describes historical market trends. The accompanying data file provides stakeholders with the information that underlies the tables and figures in this report. In 2019, 194 participants in the Alberta wholesale electricity market transacted approximately $7 billion of energy. The annual average pool price for wholesale electricity increased nine per cent from its previous-year value to $54.88/megawatt hour (MWh). The average natural gas price increased 17 per cent, averaging $1.69/gigajoule (GJ). The average spark spread based on a 7.5 GJ/MWh heat rate increased six per cent to $42.21/MWh from its previous-year value. The average Alberta Internal Load (AIL) decreased by half a per cent over 2018 values. Price 2018 2019 Year/Year Change Pool price $50.35/MWh $54.88/MWh +9% Gas price $1.44/GJ $ 1.69/GJ +17% Spark spread at 7.5 GJ/MWh $39.68/MWh $42.21/MWh +6% Load 2018 2019 Year/Year Change Average AIL 9,741 MW 9,695 MW -0.5 % Winter peak 11,471 MW 11,698 MW +2 % Summer peak 11,169 MW 10,822 MW -3 % The installed generation capacity increased three per cent in 2019, mostly due to the addition of new wind generation. Coal-fired generation1 continued to provide more energy than any other sources in 2019. Gas-fired generation continued to provide a large share of generated energy in 2019, supplying 43 per cent of Alberta’s net-to-grid energy, a one percent increase from 2018. Alberta was a net importer of electricity along all interties in 2019. Imports to the province decreased 37 per cent from 2018 levels. Exports decreased by 16 per cent. 1 Several coal-fired facilities in Alberta have converted to “dual fuel” or “co-fired” capability, allowing them to operate as either natural gas- or coal-fired, or both. The AESO is presently unable to discern which fuel is being utilized at any given time and, therefore, references in this report to coal-fired generation may also reflect natural gas firing at these facilities. 2 2019 Annual Market Statistics Price of electricity Pool price increased nine per cent The pool price averaged $54.88/MWh over 2019—an increase of nine per cent from 2018. In this report, each day is separated into on-peak and off-peak periods: on-peak periods start at 7 a.m. and end at 11 p.m.; the remaining hours of the day make up the off-peak period. In 2019, the average pool price during the on-peak period increased eight per cent to $64.12/MWh, and the off-peak average pool price increased 12 per cent to $36.40/MWh. Table 1 summarizes historical price statistics over the 10-year period between 2010 and 2019. The average pool price in 2019 was the highest since 2013. TABLE 1: Annual market price statistics Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Pool price ($/MWh) Average 50.88 76.22 64.32 80.19 49.42 33.34 18.28 22.19 50.35 54.88 On-peak average 62.99 102.22 84.72 106.13 61.48 40.73 19.73 24.46 59.28 64.12 Off-peak average 26.67 24.22 23.51 28.29 25.28 18.55 15.37 17.6 4 32.47 36.40 Spark spread at 7.5 (GJ/MWh) Average 22.5 50.4 47.3 57.6 17.6 14.1 2.8 6.8 39.7 42.2 The pool price sets the wholesale price of electricity—the settlement price for all transactions in the energy market. Figure 1 shows the monthly distribution of prices over the past five years. Through 2019, the monthly average pool price ranged from a low of $37.83/MWh in January to a high of $109.36/MWh in February. FIGURE 1: Monthly average pool price $120 $100 $80 ) $60 ol Price ($/MWh Po e ag er $40 Av $20 $0 n-20 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Ja Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Monthly Average12-Month Rolling Average 2019 Annual Market Statistics 3 The hourly price of electricity in Alberta is determined according to the economic principles of supply and demand. For any given hour, generators submit offers specifying the amount of power that they will provide and the price at which they are willing to supply it. This offer price can range from a low of $0/MWh to a maximum of $999.99/MWh. The offers are arranged from lowest to highest price to create the energy market merit order. The system controller dispatches generating units from the merit order in ascending order of offer price until supply satisfies demand. Dispatched units are said to be in merit; units that are not dispatched are out of merit.
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