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Quantifying the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid: Final Report

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Quantifying the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid: Final Report Quantifying the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid: Final Report 2013 TECHNICAL REPORT DE-EE0002666 Quantifying the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid: Final Report 1023144 Final Report, February 2013 EPRI Project Manager T. Key ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304-1338 . PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303-0813 . USA 800.313.3774 . 650.855.2121 . [email protected] . www.epri.com DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES THIS DOCUMENT WAS PREPARED BY THE ORGANIZATION(S) NAMED BELOW AS AN ACCOUNT OF WORK SPONSORED OR COSPONSORED BY THE ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC. (EPRI). NEITHER EPRI, ANY MEMBER OF EPRI, ANY COSPONSOR, THE ORGANIZATION(S) BELOW, NOR ANY PERSON ACTING ON BEHALF OF ANY OF THEM: (A) MAKES ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION WHATSOEVER, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, (I) WITH RESPECT TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, METHOD, PROCESS, OR SIMILAR ITEM DISCLOSED IN THIS DOCUMENT, INCLUDING MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR (II) THAT SUCH USE DOES NOT INFRINGE ON OR INTERFERE WITH PRIVATELY OWNED RIGHTS, INCLUDING ANY PARTY'S INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, OR (III) THAT THIS DOCUMENT IS SUITABLE TO ANY PARTICULAR USER'S CIRCUMSTANCE; OR (B) ASSUMES RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING ANY CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, EVEN IF EPRI OR ANY EPRI REPRESENTATIVE HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES) RESULTING FROM YOUR SELECTION OR USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, METHOD, PROCESS, OR SIMILAR ITEM DISCLOSED IN THIS DOCUMENT. REFERENCE HEREIN TO ANY SPECIFIC COMMERCIAL PRODUCT, PROCESS, OR SERVICE BY ITS TRADE NAME, TRADEMARK, MANUFACTURER, OR OTHERWISE, DOES NOT NECESSARILY CONSTITUTE OR IMPLY ITS ENDORSEMENT, RECOMMENDATION, OR FAVORING BY EPRI. THE FOLLOWING ORGANIZATION PREPARED THIS REPORT: Electric Power Research Institute(EPRI) NOTE For further information about EPRI, call the EPRI Customer Assistance Center at 800.313.3774 or e-mail [email protected]. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI, and TOGETHER…SHAPING THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. Copyright © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The following organization prepared this report: Electric Power Research Institute 942 Corridor Park Blvd Knoxville, TN 37932 Principal Investigators T. Key L. Rogers D. Brooks A. Tuohy This report describes research sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. EPRI would like to acknowledge the support and contributions of the following organizations: • Brookfield Power • HDR Engineering, Inc. • Chelan County PUD • Hydro Performance Processes Inc. • Duke Energy • Kirby Consulting • Exelon Generation • LCG Consulting • Manitoba Hydro • Oak Ridge National Laboratory • Tennessee Valley Authority • Sandia National Laboratories • Voith Hydro • AmerenUE This publication is a corporate document that should be cited in the literature in the following manner: Quantifying the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid: Final Report. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2013. 1023144. iii ABSTRACT The report summarizes research to Quantify the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid. This 3-year DOE study focused on defining value of hydropower assets in a changing electric grid. Methods are described for valuation and planning of pumped storage and conventional hydropower. The project team conducted plant case studies, electric system modeling, market analysis, cost data gathering, and evaluations of operating strategies and constraints. Five other reports detailing these research results are available a project website, www.epri.com/hydrogrid. With increasing deployment of wind and solar renewable generation, many owners, operators, and developers of hydropower have recognized the opportunity to provide more flexibility and ancillary services to the electric grid. To quantify value of services, this study focused on the Western Electric Coordinating Council region. A security-constrained, unit commitment and economic dispatch model was used to quantify the role of hydropower for several future energy scenarios up to 2020. This hourly production simulation considered transmission requirements to deliver energy, including future expansion plans. Both energy and ancillary service values were considered. Addressing specifically the quantification of pumped storage value, no single value stream dominated predicted plant contributions in various energy futures. Modeling confirmed that service value depends greatly on location and on competition with other available grid support resources. In this summary, ten different value streams related to hydropower are described. These fell into three categories; operational improvements, new technologies, and electricity market opportunities. Of these ten, the study was able to quantify a monetary value in six by applying both present day and future scenarios for operating the electric grid. This study confirmed that hydropower resources across the United States contribute significantly to operation of the grid in terms of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Many potential improvements to existing hydropower plants were found to be cost-effective. Pumped storage is the most likely form of large new hydro asset expansions in the U.S. however, justifying investments in new pumped storage plants remains very challenging with current electricity market economics. Even over a wide range of possible energy futures, up to 2020, no energy future was found to bring quantifiable revenues sufficient to cover estimated costs of plant construction. Value streams not quantified in this study may provide a different cost-benefit balance and an economic tipping point for hydro. Future studies are essential in the quest to quantify the full potential value. Additional research should consider the value of services provided by advanced storage hydropower and pumped storage at smaller time steps for integration of variable renewable resources, and should include all possible value streams such as capacity value and portfolio benefits i.e.; reducing cycling on traditional generation. Keywords Hydropower Energy and Ancillary Services Markets Conventional Hydropower Pumped Storage Electric Sector Modeling Hydro Plant Optimization Hydrologic Constraints Renewable Integration v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Concerns about energy security and climate change are driving policies, regulations, and energy markets to encourage new renewables, such as wind and solar, and reconsider traditional renewables, primarily hydropower. Many in the traditional hydropower industry, including owners, operators, and developers, desire to better understand how these trends will affect investment decisions for conventional hydro and pumped storage. Examples of major policy and market changes that may affect the value of hydropower are the future limits on power plant CO2 emissions and the addition of a large amount of variable renewables. The market effects of either of these could shift economic break points in favor of hydropower options, including the addition of pumped storage. Wind power, in particular, by its large scale and general availability at night, introduces system-balancing challenges that could make many hydropower assets more valuable. The question is, can the benefits be monetized to justify the cost of hydropower investments in current and future market structures? To answer this question, the study looked at existing large hydropower operations in the U.S., models for different electricity futures, markets, costs of existing and new technologies as well as trends related to hydropower investments in other parts of the world. The interest and participation of the hydro industry in this work was significant and included eight major U.S. utilities with existing hydropower assets, federal labs, consultants, and hydropower equipment manufacturers. The effort involved regular feedback on topic area presentations, progress reviews, discussions, and resulted in a number of adjustments to the depth and direction of the work. Stakeholder interactions and inputs were sustained over approximately a thirty-month period, achieving the goal to create a broad industry collaborative effort. Through these collaboration efforts, the work has contributed to and built on other related industry efforts. Specifically, a whitepaper was written by the National Hydropower Association’s Pumped Storage Development Council entitled Challenges and Opportunities for New Pumped Storage Development: A White Paper developed by NHA’s Pumped Storage Development Council that addresses some of the key issues facing pumped storage in the current market and opportunities looking into the future. A recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) study on wind integration, entitled “Integrating Southwest Power Pool Wind Energy into Southeast Electricity Markets,” was completed that provided enhancements and insights in the modeling of wind. Lastly, work done by the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to better define expansion planning with solar and wind power was vital to the project. The DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Wind and Water Power Program sponsored the work: “Quantifying the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid” (under contract DE-EE0002666). vii Completing a value analysis that included all the important assumptions and variables
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