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Smart Driving: from ADAS to Unmanned Driving

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Smart Driving: from ADAS to Unmanned Driving Equity Research Report / Company Research / / Research / Company Report Research Equity Auto Industry Thematic Report Smart driving: From ADAS to unmanned driving 28 Jun 2016 OUTPERFORM Investment Highlights (Reiterate) As technology evolves, we will soon head into an era of “Internet CITICS Research of Things”. Smart driving, which ultimately culminates in pilotless driving, seems the best-fitting theme under the concept of XU Yingbo “Internet of Everything”. Tech companies are accelerating the pace of Tel: 010-60838704 technological advances and product iteration related to smart driving, Email: [email protected] and ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistant Systems) currently stands as the Practicing license:S1010510120041 best point of exposure to the new theme. We take note of increased CHEN Junbin investor attention on smart driving names driven by: 1) Tech companies Tel: 010-60836703 Auto beyond the automotive industry, led by Tesla Motors, Apple Inc., and Email: [email protected] China’s BAT (i.e. Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) have accelerated Practicing license:S1010512070001 technological advances in the universe of smart driving, and consumer and investor attention have come along with these new developments; GAO Deng 2) Interconnected vehicles on a real-time basis and unmanned driving Tel: 010-60836729 are made possible thanks to 5G communication technologies and Email: [email protected] up-to-date sensor technologies available at a lower cost; and 3) Practicing license:S1010514070004 Conventional auto OEMs are also making efforts toward smart driving CUI Yushuo via R&D or M&A to deal with the competition. Tel: 010-60836750 Smart driving will gear up on evolving technologies, clarity on Email: [email protected] regulation and production vehicle rollouts. We estimate that the Practicing license: S1010516050002 hardware necessary for fully automatic smart vehicles may come into mass production in 2020-2025, while smart driving services integrating Performance relative to the index mobile internet, big data and cloud computing technologies will likely be available in a decade. Technological progress and product iteration CSI 300 Auto related to smart driving will pace up as tech players and conventional auto OEMs jostle to snatch a slice of the big pie. Tesla Motors added autopilot hardware to its models in mass production at the end of 2015. China-funded tech firms, including NextEv Limited, Future Mobility, LeEco’s automotive arm, may launch mass production of their smart vehicles in 2017-2018. Simultaneously, road tests and regulations will come out to catch up with the progress in smart driving. Source: CITICS Quantitative Investment Listed companies may gain presences in ADAS by acquiring Analysis System shares of related companies. Despite user-oriented product development and more flexible organizational structure, the tech players still follow in the steps of traditional automakers in the manufacturing process. Vehicles equipped with ADAS modules could become important transitory smart vehicles from their traditional counterparts in the evolution towards self-driving technologies. We estimate a market of c.Rmb200bn for ADAS modules in China by 2020E, where traditional component suppliers will maintain its leadership while start-ups will also cut into the market. With a strategy that combines “imitation and independent innovation”, Chinese ADAS manufacturers will likely develop rapidly. Given the scarcity of Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report Auto Industry Thematic Report outstanding ADAS manufacturers, listed companies will likely gain presence in the business by investing in related companies. ADAS sensors and actuators are also worthy of attention. We expect start-ups to focus on technologies related to bird’s eye view systems based on camera image recognition technologies as well as sensing applications involving automotive radars, such as collision warning. An ADAS module consists of sensors, algorithms, and actuators. We expect ADAS sensors, such as millimeter-wave radars, lidars, cameras, and ultrasonic radars, to represent a market of tens of billions. ADAS actuators, including those used in the braking system, will create a market of a similar size. We also see investment opportunities in smart-driving technologies, such as high resolution maps, Internet of Vehicles, big data and cloud computing. Potential risks: 1) Most listed companies entered the smart driving segment by way of either equity investment or M&A activities. They need time to prove their operational capabilities and potential to consolidate/integrate the newly-acquired business; 2) Profit contribution from smart driving could be restricted given the limited number of new product offerings in the coming 1-2 years; 3) The high valuation levels of some target companies provide minimal safety margins; and 4) Potential sell-downs by the senior executives of listed companies. Investment recommendations and sector rating: In our view, unmanned driving represents the ultimate direction of the auto industry, but may only deliver a small profit over the next 1-2 years. We think the smart driving segment will likely maintain high valuation levels driven by thematic opportunities. Therefore, the market position of the target company will become an important valuation benchmark in a potential acquisition deal. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM call on the sector, and advise investors to watch the following names: Zhejiang Vie Science & Technology (002590), Tuopu Group (601689), Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic (002284), Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems (601799), Joyson Electronic (600699) and Shuanglin Auto Parts (300100). Earnings forecast, valuation and investment rating of key listed companies EPS (Rmb) PE (x) Company Share price (Rmb) PB (x) Rating 15 16E 17E 18E 15 16E 17E 18E Vie Science & Technology (002590) 28.94 0.19 0.24 0.31 0.37 152 121 93 78 8.5 O/W Ningbo Tuopu Group (601689) 26.54 0.63 0.76 0.88 1.04 42 35 30 26 5.3 O/W Asia-Pacific Mechanical& Electronic (002284) 18.18 0.19 0.25 0.29 0.34 94 73 63 53 5.3 O/W Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems (601799) 45.59 1.22 1.46 1.69 1.95 90 46 27 23 6.6 O/W Joyson Electronic (600699) 36.73 0.41 0.79 1.34 1.60 70 48 39 33 7.8 O/W Shuanglin Auto Parts (300100) 42.57 0.61 0.84 1.00 1.18 70 51 43 36 7.8 O/W Source: Wind, CITICS Research forecast Note: Closing price as of 14 Jun 2016 Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report Auto Industry Thematic Report Contents Smart driving: Full speed ahead into a reality ............................................................... 1 Smart driving gives rise to fresh opportunities .................................................................... 2 Dual paths of technology evolution: Tech firms vs. traditional OEMs ................................. 3 ADAS: The first module to be commercialized .............................................................. 8 Auto safety regulations help accelerate ADAS growth ........................................................ 8 ADAS will likely be the first to be commercialized ............................................................ 10 First-movers are likely to be the ultimate winners .............................................................. 11 Components: Domestic companies will likely be able to produce sensor/map modules in the future ...................................................................................................... 15 Sensor modules: integration of multiple sensors .............................................................. 15 Sensor modules: Millimeter wave radar ............................................................................ 16 Sensor modules: lidar (light detection and ranging) .......................................................... 18 Sensor modules: camera .................................................................................................. 21 Sensor modules - infrared night vision: Huge growth potential; focus on domestic leaders ........................................................................................................................................... 23 High resolution maps: The oligopoly competitive landscape will likely continue .............. 24 Actuators ........................................................................................................................... 25 Intelligent electronics system ............................................................................................ 25 The Internet of Vehicles (IoV) ............................................................................................ 26 Potential risks .................................................................................................................. 27 Investment strategy and recommendations ................................................................. 27 Key companies .................................................................................................................. 28 Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report Auto Industry Thematic Report Figs Fig. 1: Levels of driving automation according to SAE and NHTSA ................................... 1 Fig. 2: The roadmap for evolution of smart driving ............................................................. 2 Fig. 3: Future competitive landscape of smart driving ........................................................ 3 Fig. 4: More than 80mn vehicles were sold worldwide in 2015 .........................................
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