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A Study of China's Explosive Growth in the Plug-In Electric Vehicle Market

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A Study of China's Explosive Growth in the Plug-In Electric Vehicle Market ORNL/TM-2016/750 A Study of China’s Explosive Growth in the Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market Shiqi Ou Zhenhong Lin Zhixin Wu Jihu Zheng Renzhi Lyu Steven Przesmitzki Xin He Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. January 2017 DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY Reports produced after January 1, 1996, are generally available free via US Department of Energy (DOE) SciTech Connect. Website http://www.osti.gov/scitech/ Reports produced before January 1, 1996, may be purchased by members of the public from the following source: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 Telephone 703-605-6000 (1-800-553-6847) TDD 703-487-4639 Fax 703-605-6900 E-mail [email protected] Website http://www.ntis.gov/help/ordermethods.aspx Reports are available to DOE employees, DOE contractors, Energy Technology Data Exchange representatives, and International Nuclear Information System representatives from the following source: Office of Scientific and Technical Information PO Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 Telephone 865-576-8401 Fax 865-576-5728 E-mail [email protected] Website http://www.osti.gov/contact.html This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. ORNL/TM-2016/750 Energy and Transportation Science Division A Study of China’s Explosive Growth in the Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market Shiqi Ou Oak Ridge National Laboratory National Transportation Research Center 2360 Cherahala Boulevard Knoxville, TN 37932 USA Zhenhong Lin* Oak Ridge National Laboratory National Transportation Research Center 2360 Cherahala Boulevard Knoxville, TN 37932 USA Zhixin Wu China Automotive Technology and Research Center Dongli District, Tianjin 300300, China Jihu Zheng China Automotive Technology and Research Center Dongli District, Tianjin 300300, China Renzhi Lyu China Automotive Technology and Research Center Dongli District, Tianjin 300300, China Steven Przesmitzki Aramco Services Company 46535 Peary Ct, Novi, MI 48377 USA Xin He Aramco Services Company 46535 Peary Ct, Novi, MI 48377 USA Date Published: January 2017 Prepared by OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6283 managed by UT-BATTELLE, LLC for the US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 CONTENTS CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................. iii LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... vii ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................................... xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 3 2. CHINA’S PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET ..................................................................... 5 2.1 PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE CLASSIFICATIONS IN CHINA ........................................ 5 2.2 2014-15 BOOM .......................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 FEATURES OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES .................................................... 12 2.4 MARKET COMPETITION AND INDUSTRY ORGANIZATION........................................ 14 2.5 PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET COMPARISON OF CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES .................................................................................................................... 25 2.6 MICRO EVS: MOST WELCOMED PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES .............................. 29 2.7 MULTINATIONAL INVESTMENTS IN CHINA’S PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET .................................................................................................................................. 31 3. POLICIES IN THE PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET .................................................... 35 3.1 POLICIES OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IN 2012-2015 .......................................... 35 3.1.1 Government Subsidies in Light-Duty PEVs (passenger plug-in electric cars) ............ 37 3.1.2 Government Subsidies in Heavy-Duty PEVs (plug-in electric buses) ......................... 38 3.2 INCENTIVES BY LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ....................................................................... 39 3.3 EVALUATION OF NEW POLICIES IN 2016 ........................................................................ 43 4. CHINA PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES ......................................................... 47 4.1 EV BATTERIES ....................................................................................................................... 47 4.2 BATTERY CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE ...................................................................... 51 4.2.1 Comparison of Public EV Charging Outlets ................................................................ 51 4.2.2 Distribution of EV Charging Outlets ........................................................................... 52 4.2.3 Planning ....................................................................................................................... 54 4.3 OTHER ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES .......................................................... 55 4.3.1 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle ............................................................................................ 55 4.3.2 Battery Swap BEVs/Stations ....................................................................................... 56 4.3.3 Vehicular telematics ..................................................................................................... 57 5. PEV CONSUMER BEHAVIORS IN CHINA ................................................................................... 59 5.1 PEV PURCHASE INTENTIONS ............................................................................................ 59 5.2 INVESTIGATING CHINA’S PEV MARKET ........................................................................ 59 6. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................ 63 7. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 65 Appendix A. APPENDIX A. MAJOR NATIONAL POLICIES OR EVENTS IN PEV INDUSTRY, 2001-2015 ......................................................................................................................................... A-1 iii iv LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 1. Plug-in electric vehicle productions in China, 2009-2015................................................................. 1 Fig. 2. Plug-in electric vehicle production and market share in China, 2009-2016 ...................................... 5 Fig. 3. Relations for LSEVs, micro EVs, and PEVs ..................................................................................... 7 Fig. 4. New electrified light duty vehicles sales in China, 2005 – 2015 ....................................................... 9 Fig. 5. Global light plug-in electric vehicle sales, 2011-2015 ...................................................................... 9 Fig. 6. Global light PEV accumulated sales, 2011-2015 ............................................................................ 10 Fig. 7. Distribution of vehicle types in the Chinese BEV sales market for 2014 and 2015 ........................ 11 Fig. 8. Chinese PHEV sales market by vehicle category for 2014 and 2015.............................................. 12 Fig. 9. New Plug-in Electric Vehicle Monthly Sales in China, 2013 – 2015 (2) ........................................ 13 Fig. 10. Total vehicle monthly sales in China, 2011 – 2015 (2) ................................................................. 13 Fig. 11. a) New light PEV market share by models, 2015; b) new PEV market share by models, 2015 ............................................................................................................................................... 15 Fig. 12. Sales and prices for 10 best-selling PEVs (basic model) in China, 2015 ...................................... 16 Fig. 13. Price range distribution of private purchase PEVs in
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