© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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Editor’s Welcome

Welcome to Issue 66 of On Course Profits and a significantly longer than usual Editor’s Welcome with some important updates, I hope you can take a few minutes to read it.

Given the difficult times that we are all going through currently we have cast our net wide this month, called in some favours, and produced for you a bumper 100+ pages of what we hope is interesting and ultimately profitable info for you.

A good number of our contributors this month have provided content at no cost and I hope you will reward them by visiting their websites, and when things get back to normal maybe even consider spending some money with them.

Our main sponsor this month is Football Index Investor, Football Index is like a stock market for football players, I’m not a football expert but my attention was drawn to the statement elsewhere inside this issue which says that Football Index is still growing, and that just buying a selection of top players will prove profitable just from the service growing, I’ve invested a little to test that theory.

We have also used this opportunity that has been gifted us by the lack of sport to make some changes to On Course Profits and our other offering, the Betting Insiders Club.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd We have always had the free On Course Profits magazine which is enjoyed by thousands every month and we have always had the Gold edition where we share the more profitable systems and advanced strategies.

Now we have created On Course Profits Platinum, which is a combination of the tipsters and selections from the Betting Insiders Club and the selections from all the current and approved systems from On Course Profits.

Currently OCP Platinum only has selections for US racing, but when UK sport gets going again it will be the ultimate offering for the winning punter.

This month we’ve tried hard to deliver you articles that are still useful even though we have very little sport. You will find a couple of pieces on US racing, we have news about virtual racing that is based on real form that you can bet with virtual money, and we tell you how to profit from the betting clubs that some bookies offer.

John has researched a piece on trainers that perform well after a long break which will hopefully produce us some winners when UK racing restarts.

And we have much, much more.

I hope you find it entertaining and profitable.

All the best Darren Power

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Research Corner - Trainer Angles

The 2020 Turf Flat Season was delayed due to the pandemic Coronavirus which caused all the racing in Great Britain to be postponed from Wednesday 18th March.

We had the opportunity to savour the Cheltenham Festival but just a few days later it became apparent that it was necessary to stop racing and, although they continued briefly in Ireland, they too reached the conclusion to halt the action to help prevent the spread of the virus.

At the time of writing we still have no idea as to the actual date that the equine action will resume, but the hope is it will get underway again in May.

Of course whenever it does recommence there will be many areas which will be unknown to us punters, such as which yards were more affected by the shutdown, and which ones may be able to hit the ground running?

To be perfectly honest who knows?

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Over the year’s horse race trainers have demonstrated that they are “creatures of habit” and whilst the scribes in last month’s edition of Research Corner covering the “Flying start to the Flat” may not apply in these new circumstances, it will still hopefully pay to play close attention to some well time served routines.

Under The Radar?

Reviewing the 2019 Turf Flat season as a whole we find that the top 10 Trainers in terms of winners were as follows:-

With the possible exception of Tim Easterby, most are made up of the “usual suspects” with Mark Johnston heading the pile with 180 winners, combined with a solid 18% Strike Rate.

However, you would have made a loss of 23 pence in the pound blindly backing the North Yorkshire based maestro.

On a side and personal note the Mark Johnston yard is one of the most frustrating to follow, especially when he has multiple entries in the same race!

If we look a little further down the total winners column for the 2019 Turf Flat season, are there any trainers that may be “punching above their weight”?

In this respect we will use the “Actual v Expected” ratio, where figures exceeding 1.00 are an indication that the overall performance of the runners being considered has achieved a better result than the odds markets would have expected.

The following table details the yards which ended the 2019 Flat season ranked from 11th through to 50th in terms of winners whilst recording a noteworthy A/E (1.00 or above).

Suroor 17 218 50 22.94 -10.85 -4.98 13.72 6.29 1.00 Saeed Bin Carroll AW 23 353 41 11.61 -56.69 -16.06 -4.94 -1.40 1.11 (Tony) Bell MLW 26 260 36 13.85 -72.33 -27.82 -46.53 -17.90 1.02 (Michael) Tate 31 127 32 25.20 10.87 8.56 29.87 23.52 1.09 James O’Keeffe 39 157 26 16.56 -21.54 -13.72 -1.64 -1.04 1.18 Jedd Wall CF 49 101 19 18.81 -13.33 -13.20 -3.12 -3.09 1.36 (Chris)

Let us now consider each of the above 6 trainers and see if we can uncover any traits which may be able to lead us to future profits:-

Saeed Bin Suroor

Having been born and raised in Dubai, Saeed bin Suroor is Godolphin’s longest-serving trainer which stretches all the way back to 1995.

Given the backing it should come as no surprise that he has won 4 British trainers’ Championships and trained 12 British Classic winners.

In normal circumstances he splits his time between his home base of Al Quoz Stables in Dubai from November to April, and is based at Godolphin Stables in Newmarket, UK, during the rest of the year.

It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise given the yards location that the Flat racing at “Headquarters” was targeted and across the July and Rowley courses they managed 11 winners from 46 runners in 2019 combined with a solid +31.26% ROI.

During the 2019 Flat campaign Bin Suroor engaged no less than 24 individual jockeys, but the trio of Oisin Murphy, Hector Crouch and Pat Cosgrave were collectively on- board over 50% of the winners.

Unless there is news to the contrary it may well pay to focus on these guys when considering backing one of the Bin Suroor runners once the 2020 season gets underway.

Based between Evesham and Pershore in Worcestershire Tony Carroll trains horses for both the Flat and National Hunt racing.

The overall Strike Rate of his runners may appear modest, 11.61% during 2019 Flat, but the following Table eases us in the right direction of his modus operandi…

Clearly the yard targets Handicap races and if you take out the lowest level, Class 6, the figures would have improved to just shy of 47 points level stakes profit at Betfair SP and a very handy +25% ROI.

Bell MLW (Michael)

Michael Bell has been training in the historic yard of Fitzroy House, Newmarket for 30 years. During that time he has trained close to 1,500 winners and won circa £26 million worth of prize money. He has enjoyed success at Classic level with the Epsom Derby (Motivator) and the winner of the Oaks (Sariska), as well as having numerous winners abroad.

When the new season finally gets underway the yard will have approximately 100 horses in training ready to go to the tracks, including an exciting bunch of two year olds by all the right stallions, including the progeny of Frankel, Dubawi, Kingman, Lope de Vega and Oasis Dream.

The yard traditionally takes a while to get going and most of the runners need their first outing after a layoff which is shown by the following table:-

Breakdown of H-Run (90 Days)

In the most recent campaign the Strike Rate of those that had a relatively recent run was more than triple than of those that hadn’t seen the track in the last 90 days.

One other key point to note is the performance of the runners at Newmarket which is surprisingly poor with just 9 winners from the 139 that competed at HQ during the last 3 Flat seasons.

Moving on next up is James Tate.

Tate James

A relative newcomer to the training ranks having sent out his first runner just 8 years ago James Tate is closing in on his 400th winner and enjoyed his best ever season last time around.

Taking in all codes 2019 saw the stable send out 74 winners, including a Group 2, three Group 3 races and four Listed races earning more than £1 million of prize money worldwide.

Another trainer based at Newmarket, Tate is also a qualified veterinary surgeon and openly mentions that this accreditation gives him more insights into the welfare of the horses in his care.

This is given credence when we consider the Strike Rate of his 2019 runners that hadn’t seen the track for at least 90 days:-

There was clearly a shift in the yards approach during the latest campaign as previously the runners benefitted with a recent run.

O’Keeffe Jedd

From his base in Middleham, North Yorkshire Jedd O’Keeffe has been sending out winners across all codes of racing including over the jumps.

As we saw in the original 2019 table blindly backing all of his runners on the Flat (Turf) last season came close to breakeven on the Betfair SP which is no mean feat.

If you focus on those that have a recent run, 45 days or less, the Strike Rate and ROI improve quite nicely.

The final yard in this edition of Research Corner is Chris Wall….

Wall CF (Chris)

Another stalwart of the Newmarket scene and one of the smaller yards, but very effective at making the most of the limited numbers under his care, it is pretty clear from the below table as to where his expertise lies…

He doesn’t have many two-year-old winners, and in the main the youngsters are primed for the following campaign when they become qualified for Handicap races.

The yard does have winners at the local track (Newmarket) but enjoy a better Strike Rate away from headquarters.

Saeed Bin Suroor

As you will have seen previously Newmarket has been fruitful over the years but interestingly the Midlands based location of Nottingham appears to have been targeted in the most recent seasons:-

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd It may well be that the flat galloping nature of the venue at Nottingham is not that dissimilar to Newmarket, and being a shade over 100 miles away it is not too much of a taxing journey in a horsebox.

Whatever the reason keeping an eye of future runners there seems to be a sensible move.

System 89 - Back the runners trained by Saeed Bin Suroor when they are entered to run at Nottingham

Carroll AW (Tony)

From the initial research it was pretty clear that the yard does well with their runners in Handicap races, and by ignoring those in the lowest class and focussing on those competing over sprint distances, we should hopefully tap into future profits.

System 88 - Back the runners from the Tony Carroll yard when competing in Handicap sprints up to 7 furlongs, avoiding those in Classes 1 and 6.

With a Place Strike Rate of 1 in 3 you should also consider Each-Way, or Win & Place on Betfair SP, where the prices are appropriate (5/1 or bigger).

Although it can be challenging to second guess the market, generally speaking those that went off at over 20/1 did not fare well with 0 from 21 such runners, so those to the fore of the betting are the ones we should aim to focus on.

So far we have seen that this yards runners need a recent run to blow off the cobwebs and also the local track of Newmarket is not the place to back them.

If we concentrate on those running in Handicap races that have had a recent run and are now running in the same Class or one Class lower, we really focus in on the positive traits.

System 87 - Back the runners trained by Michael Bell when entered in Handicaps coming off a recent run and tackling the same Class (or 1 lower) of race, excluding the local track of Newmarket.

Tate James

Coming off the back of the yard's most successful season in 2019 the optimism must be high that they can build further during the coming campaign.

One area that was definitely cultivated in recent times was the partnership with jockey PJ McDonald who was aboard 32 individual winners for the yard during 2019 (Flat/AW).

System 86 - Back the runners trained by James Tate when ridden by PJ McDonald. There is a “Sweet Spot” from these if we concentrate on the horses that are returning from a break or having had just the one run during the last 90 days.

Jedd O’Keeffe

Handicaps seem to be the most fruitful and a recent run also is a benefit. One other area is a solid run last time out, as in a top 3 finish, which gives us to handy figures:-

System 85 - Back the runners from the Jedd O’Keeffe yard when entered in Handicaps on the turf and coming off the back of a recent winning or placed run.

As we saw in the initial analysis the yard prime their runners towards Handicap races and the ones that are towards the fore of the market are the ones to focus on…

System 84 - Back the runners from the Chris Wall yard when they are entered in Handicap races and play close attention to the market as those in the top 4 have generally outperformed those at the bigger prices.

Steve Carter

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The Draw in UK Flat Racing – A Broad Overview

This is a hugely difficult time for you all, this country and indeed the world. For racing fans there is currently a huge void and I hope this article will in some small part fill that void albeit temporarily.

At the time of writing I have no idea about when racing will start again. My guess is sometime in June. If that is the case then at least we do have some great flat racing to look forward to.

In this article I am going to take a look at the draw over 5 and 6 furlongs across UK course and distances in an attempt to give you a comprehensive overview. Some potential biases will hopefully be highlighted and I will add some additional statistics to give more ‘meat on the bones’.

For new readers of On Course Profits and maybe some of the more seasoned readers too, I began my racing days as a draw aficionado back in the late 90s and early 2000s. I wrote 4 books on the subject and ran a tipping service ‘drawn2win’ for 6 years.

For this article I have taken data from 1st January 2015 to 31st December 2019 focusing on UK turf flat racing only. When studying the draw and potential biases there are numerous ways you can look at it. In the past I have often split the draw into thirds and looked at the relevant win and placed percentages for each section. Some pundits split into quartiles, others look at A/E values, some look at profit/losses, and others will combine more than one factor.

For this article I am going to split the draw into halves, bottom half of the draw (low) compared with top half (high), and also look at A/E values. For those who have not seen this term before, or have forgotten an A/E value or ‘index’ is, it is a type of impact value.

The A stands for ‘Actual’ and the E stands for ‘Expected’ so essentially the stat shows an index of actual winners compared to expected winners.

To give you a numerical explanation – imagine you had a system that generated 100 selections from horses that were priced up at Even money. Each horse would have a 50% chance of winning according to the price and hence in 100 runs you would expect 50 horses to win (50%). Imagine though that actually 60 of the horses won; that gives us:

A = 60 winners E = 50 winners A/E index = 1.2 (6 divided by 5)

The higher the A/E index the better from a potential backing perspective; any figure over 1.00 gives us a potentially positive scenario.

The main advantage of looking at an A/E index is that it is useful for determining value selections as it takes into account the prices of all the runners. The slight downside is that it cannot take the over-round of bookmakers into account giving us very slightly ‘skewed’ results.

Personally when examining the draw and potential draw bias I focus on only handicaps. This is because they are the most competitive race-type; plus there are a decent number of handicaps on a yearly basis.

The number of runners is important too – I tend to use 10 or more runners where possible, but am happy to go to a minimum of 8. For this article I am going to analyse 10 runner + handicaps only.

A look now at courses in the UK that have had at least twenty 5f handicap races with 10 or more runners.

Year on year there seems to be slightly fewer 5f handicaps which accounts for the relatively low cut off point I have chosen. The table will show the win percentages for the both halves of the draw as well as their A/E indices.

As readers will notice several courses do not make the list due to not having enough qualifying races. Courses such as Brighton do have a decent number of 5f handicaps in a season – 75 in the last 5 seasons - but just 10 of those races featured 10 or more runners. Brighton is simply a course that generally attracts small fields in sprints.

The first part of the table that I wish to discuss are the figures for Chester.

Chester is generally thought of as being the course which offers the strongest and most consistent draw bias in the country. Low draws have a significant edge at certain distances due to the tight configuration of the track.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd The raw draw percentages over 5f back that up here, but the A/E values for both halves of the draw are very similar. This shows that the betting market is fairly efficient and that lower draws rightly start at much shorter prices. Having said that, with all basic stats it is worth digging a little deeper and the very lowest draws still offer an edge to punters at Chester.

Focusing on the 4 lowest draws, normally draws 1-4, (non-runners can potentially affect this), and you would have made a profit at SP backing all such horses ‘blind’. A return of around 11 pence in the £. Compare that with backing draw 5 and 6 ‘blind’ where you would have lost a whopping 47p in the £.

Beverley is another course where 5f draw bias (horses drawn low near the far rail) has been prevalent for many years.

The raw percentages indicate an edge for lower draws still, although nowhere near as strong as it would have been in the past. The A/E values at Beverley again indicate that the market understands the bias and reacts accordingly.

York shows a low draw bias and this has been the case for some years. It is one of the few course and distances where the bias seems to have got slightly stronger recently. The A/E values suggest that there is more value focusing on lower drawn horses compared to higher drawn ones and if we dig deeper this can be shown more clearly.

Horses drawn 1 to 5 have won 20 races from 205 runners (SR 9.8%) with an A/E value of 1.04; horses drawn 6 or more have won more races 22, but from more than double the number of runners 476. Their strike rate is just 4.2% with a much lower A/E value of 0.66.

When we look at SP returns the stats continue to be strongly in favour of those drawn 1 to 5 – they would have lost you just 4p in the £ at SP, horses drawn 6 or higher would have lost you over 43p in the £ at SP.

Moving back to looking at other courses - the stats for Ayr, Doncaster, Hamilton, Sandown and Thirsk are also worthy of further investigation, but due to time constraints and keeping this article down to a sensible length I just want to take a quick look at Ayr before I move on.

The raw stats for Ayr look strong but there have only been 26 races so this is still a relatively small sample. If these figures are similar when examining the 6f data, then we can be far more confident in the figures.

What I am quite confident in though is that the higher draws have been really struggling recently.

6f Handicaps

A look at 6f handicaps now. I have increased the number of races in order to qualify for the table to 30. In general there are many more 6f handicaps so it makes sense to do this. As we know, more races generally provide stronger and more reliable sets of data:

Let me start with Ayr as this course was discussed briefly earlier.

In 5f races at the Scottish venue, albeit from a relatively modest sample, it seemed that the bottom half of the draw have had a decent advantage over those drawn higher in the last five years.

The 6f data correlates strongly with the 5f data which is pleasing to see and adds greater confidence to the initial draw conclusions. It is also worth noting that over 6f at Ayr there have been a total of 54 handicap races with 10 or more runners which is a good sample size.

This low draw bias looks fairly consistent – it is a bias that is relatively new and actually difficult to explain.

From 2010 to 2014 over both 5 and 6 furlongs splitting the draw in half saw as even a split as you could get. 85 races with 42 wins to the bottom half and 43 to the top.

Ayr is an example of why you need to constantly keep an eye on different stats / angles / trends to see if anything is changing or starting to change. What is also intriguing about Ayr is that the position of the stalls changes – just under half the races saw the stalls placed in the centre of the sprint track while the remaining races were split fairly evenly between the far rail and the stands rail.

Breaking these individual stats down show that lower draws are strongly favoured in all three stall positions.

Now I always like to be able to explain a bias but here I cannot fully. I would guess that the ground nearest the stands’ rail is probably slower than the rest of track, but that in itself is not enough to explain it properly.

York over 5f showed a bias to lower draws and over 6f the bias looks stronger. Again good that both straight course sprint trips display the same pattern. A good number of qualifying races again (46) to give added confidence to the data. Let me group the data for York 6f like I did for Ayr:

These stats offer one real confidence as everything points to the lower the better, the higher the worse. Good correlation of across win strike rate, % of placed horses, ROI and A/E. York’s straight track is one to keep an eye on once racing gets back underway.

1. At Goodwood horses drawn 11 or higher have provided just 4 winners (19 win and placed) from 188 runners; compare this to horses drawn 1 to 5 who have provided 18 winners (46 win and placed) from 150 runners;

2. Very high draws have struggled at Nottingham with draws 13 or more providing 0 winners from 51 runners with only 5 managing to get placed; 3. The lower the better it seems at Redcar. Amazingly horses drawn 1 have won 13 of the 65 races; 42 of the races have been won horses drawn 1 to 6; in contrast, horses drawn 13 or higher have managed just 3 wins from 209 runners with an A/E of just 0.22.

For me it is good to see draw bias still around, albeit you really have to dig deep these days. I hope you have enjoyed this article and fingers crossed everything gets back to some sense of normality sooner rather than later. Stay safe everyone.

David Renham

https://www.pexels.com/@pixabay

From Crisis Comes Opportunity

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” – Warren Buffett

Out of the myriad wise words spoken by investors down the years, few are as pertinent right now as the above by Warren Buffett. Quite frankly, unless you owned a bunch of stocks in loo roll companies, the chances are that any investments you held before the coronavirus crisis are worth significantly less now than they were a few months ago.

And yet that’s not a reason to run scared, sell low and stop investing. Quite the opposite in fact. Indeed, if you didn’t have any investments before this crisis – which I imagine will apply to most people reading this magazine – you’re in a fantastic position…

Not only have you not lost any money/portfolio value, you’re also in a great spot to pick up investments at a fraction of their true value.

You see, what goes down must come up. I’m not talking about risky propositions here – clearly some smaller businesses will go bust as a result of the crisis – but those opportunities which have seen it all before and which always bounce back, because that’s just how the world works. Markets like property, the FTSE 100, football.

Let me introduce you to Football Index

Back in 2017 a chap called Adam Cole decided that he was going to disrupt the sports betting market, just as Betfair had done so successfully years before. His creation also differed from standard fixed odds ‘back’ betting, but this time it wasn’t even based on the result of sporting events…

It didn’t matter who won and who lost!

Instead, Adam created a football stock market, where the way to profit was by buying undervalued players and holding them until their value increased. Just as you would do with a company in the traditional stock market.

This instantly opened a huge number of doors for the savvy bettor. You could focus on buying young players, who will surely increase in value as they get older and improve. Or little-known players who you’ve heard are being scouted by major European teams. Or simply just focus on the biggest stars of the game, which will naturally increase in value as the platform grows. And boy has the platform grown.

Here’s a look at the rise in value of the Index over the last couple of years:

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd If you’d purchased their equivalent of the FTSE 100 shortly after the platform launched, you would now be looking at a profit in excess of 700% and that’s from doing absolutely nothing and having no knowledge of football whatsoever.

Obviously if you’d used a bit more nous and focussed on hidden gems and the like you could have done even better than that.

Here’s an example of a player I purchased, James Maddison, last season:

In the short time since his stock has almost quadrupled in value (from £1.13 to £4.37 per share) and this was no genius move – he was already starting for Leicester in the Premier League and earning rave reviews when I bought the shares!

As for the effect of coronavirus on all this. Well, go back to that graph and look at the tiny squiggle at the end. The markets have dipped a little – no surprise there – but they’re also extremely resilient and that’s also no surprise.

After all, football isn’t going to vanish is it?

No matter what the doom mongers would have you believe, normal life will return and, with it, football (German teams are already back in training as I type).

What’s more, this little dip and plateau means that, just like in the traditional stock market, there are great bargains to be had. Pick up some star names on the cheap now, and when football resumes and the market rebounds again you’ll be sitting pretty.

Three strategies for increased profits

In addition to being greedy when others are fearful, here are three other profitable strategies for use on Football Index:

1) Use the football calendar to anticipate interest

The key to stock markets isn’t buying the ‘best’ players or companies; it’s buying the ones who, next week/month, everybody will be talking about.

Therefore, it’s crucial to stay ahead of the market.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd If you know there’s a European Championship or World Cup coming up in June for example, then start buying players who are likely to be prominent in those tournaments (England players in particular) around Christmas time. While Marcus Rashford might be experiencing a slight lull in January, even your granny is going to know his name come England’s first group match.

The majority of football fans will start thinking about this in March/April when attention starts to turn away from domestic matters, so get ahead of the curve.

2) As Football Index grows, player values increase

The easiest way to profit from this platform and the reason why it’s still such a good opportunity, is by simply sitting back and watching the Football Index usership grow. The more money is in the market the more each player will be worth – simple as that.

At present, most people still don’t know what Football Index is, let alone use it, and that means that it’s still a fantastic opportunity and quite a difficult one to fail to make money from (if you’re patient of course). The time to stop investing, or at least to temper your investments, is when everybody is talking about it, a bit like with Bitcoin a couple of Christmases back. Now is not that time.

As for a more short-term strategy, Football Index also regularly run big marketing campaigns and put out valuable special offers to their membership, such as double dividends for a limited time period. If you purchase some shares right at the beginning of one of these promotional periods, often you can make a nice quick profit simply by selling them again at the end of that promotion.

3) Listen to those ‘in the know’

Just like with Betfair in its early days, many people are doing well out of the platform, but some are well and truly cleaning up. You obviously want those people on side where possible.

There are plenty of Football Index forums out there with knowledgeable contributors and, dare I say it, there are also one or two good subscription services, such as our Football Index Investor service. Do take a look if this article has been of interest to you - Click Here

“Greed is good” – Gordon Gekko

We’ll close with another quote, albeit this time from a slightly more unsavoury character.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd The reality is that not everybody can make money whatever their choice of investment, be it traditional sports betting, the traditional stock market, or the football stock market. You need to take chances and you need to be greedy at the right times.

Now might well be the worst of times for traditional sports betting, after all, there’s no sport!

But for the football stock market, that doesn’t matter, and there is in fact a very strong argument to say that the timing for an all new involvement in it couldn’t be better.

Good luck. Josh Allen

Josh Allen is the editor of free betting e-letter, Bet Chat, (https://www.marketprospectors.com/optin36455623) and the publisher of Football Index Investor, a brand new Football Index tipping service. The service currently comes with a 60 day ‘no questions asked’ money back guarantee and you can find out more about it by clicking this link - https://www.oncourseprofits.com/marketprospectors

You can join Football Index here - https://www.footballindex.co.uk

cc-by-sa/2.0 - © Row17 - geograph.org.uk/p/1401119

Don’t’ Believe The Hype (How to Make Great "Against The Grain" Profits)

From the desk of: Andrew David

Andrew David here author of many gambling/trading related products and the man behind Little Acorns Gold; The Legacy, Price Equalisation Method (PEM); Football Bankbuilder and more recently my very popular Quick Fire Betting profits course.

Glad to say all have stood the test of time and for the most part have been very highly received by many third party review sites.

I am also a regular contributor for the excellent What Really Wins Money free weekly eletter and monthly subscription newsletter service edited by my colleague Clive Keeling who really does know his trades when it comes to football with his Delay React Trade (DRT) service.

Today I want to tell you how to make profits by going against popular opinion or ‘going against the grain’. Especially the opinion of the so-called ‘newspaper experts’ who in some part get paid and are sponsored by bookies to write articles – I kid you not! In knowing that, do we just trust their judgement on the tips they promote?

Not saying they would deliberately mislead readers, it’s just I think they are not very good at prediction, or they are biased towards popular opinion in order to piggyback on the wave of euphoria some bets may attract to gain increased readership. Put simply, they tip the selections that will attract the most money rather than the ones most likely to win the event!

For example; many years ago when Wolves got promoted to the Premiership they had an awful start to life in the big time by getting hammered in their first two or three matches. Next, they met the once mighty Man Utd away!

As you can imagine the sporting press went to town full of headlines about can Man Utd reach doubles figures?

With the most popular bet forecast being 10-1 in the correct score market. The sheer arrogance of them and what an insult!

Of course it’s all just to whip up a frenzy and entice punters to make false bets with no chance of winning.

Can you imagine how the Wolves players felt when they got wind of this? Especially rags like The Sun reporting an 8, 9 and even 10-1 score line. Surely a massive siege mentality would set in to protect professional pride for the Wolves side?

These types of favourites are always overhyped and that’s reflected in an artificially ‘press driven’ reduced price and so that’s where we can get a bit of value by going the other way.

I decided to go ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ as I expected a siege mentality from Wolves and from memory it was priced around 10/1.

Now I was at the match that evening and I can tell you Wolves not only punched above their weight but were all over Man Utd and the Reds were indeed lucky to come away 1-0 winners, and of course my Under 2.5 goals bet was landed!

Wolves had many chances to equalize and even win, but as ever the difference between the two sides was in the clinical finishing. Class sides only need one or two chances and more importantly they make them count.

Here is another example using Wolves. As part of their Europa qualifying matches Wolves met Crusaders from Northern Ireland and again the experts were out in force touting scores from anything over 4-0 to Wolves as below:

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd To be fair I did think it may be around this score but with Wolves coming off the back of a successful Asian pre-season tour in the sweltering humidity I took a chance and opted again for under 2.5 Goals. I think I got around 8/1.

Final Score: Wolves 2 – Crusaders 0

Then when Wolves played Crusaders away many were piling on ‘Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 4/11. Whereas I found the both teams to score tempting at 7/1.

I mean has no one heard of penalties or own goals? A long range Crusaders goal kick into the Wolves area and a crazy tackle and bang one goal to the under dogs I would wager. Or, Wolves could run riot in the first half and go 4-0 up and then take their foot off the peddle leading the way for a Crusader consolation goal?

Of course, it’s all ‘if’s’ but we have to cut the risk of losing down as much as possible.

My belief is there’s always a chance of the underdogs snatching a goal and they did indeed get a goal and it was an own goal!

The above strategy is just one way you can explore and get thinking outside the box. All by simply applying the psychological aspect to your selection process.

Giant Killing Method…

Now here’s another dynamic little angle, effective for all sporting events except horse racing, which again finds its success from going head-to-head against popular opinion.

You see, my guess is the giant-killer team or player experiences such a huge 'high' after their outstanding but most unusual victory, their mental focus for the next outing could fall well below where it should be.

They’ve peaked at such a dizzying height with their ‘cup final’ win that regaining their motivation for the next time out might prove to be just a bit too tricky.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd And this theory is supported by Jeff Greenwald in his excellent book, ‘The Best Tennis of Your Life’. In this extract from a chapter dealing with players' emotional responses after a big win, he observes...

“At the 2005 U.S Open, Giles Muller, ranked number 63 in the world, swept aside the world number 3 seed Andy Roddick.

“As is often the case after a big win, Muller’s brief run was stopped dead in its tracks in the very next match. Certainly, it brings to mind the question: How can players keep their winning momentum going, especially after giant-killing wins?

“The first most obvious trap players face as they move through a tournament is getting overly focused on their tournament results. Once this mindset kicks-in, all kinds of thoughts tend to emerge: ‘Now I can’t afford to lose’; ‘I beat a seed. What if I can’t produce the same result tomorrow?’'; ‘My parents/coach/spouse would be so happy if I could win my next match too.'

“On the flip side, players may also find themselves getting too satisfied after a big win and lose their intensity for their next match.

“Often, they celebrate too soon. This attitude is subtle but still deadly. Players aren’t the only ones affected by the euphoria that emerges through winning. Parents, team mates, and coaches can also get sucked into the results trap’ and get excited too soon. And players pick up on this intensity.

"Though it is certainly gratifying for players to see the effect their result can have on people around them it can also distract them from focusing on what will help them win the next day”.

So, here’s the take-away...

Watch out for giant-killers in any sport and then ‘Back against’ or ‘Lay’ the giant-killer in their next outing.

Remember, it doesn’t have to be just main tournaments.

You could look for giant-killers in any event or league.

Maybe the bottom team in the 2nd Division beats the top team – in which case, when the bottom team next plays, either ‘lay’ it or ‘back’ the opposition,..

Just make sure there’s no more than a 7-day gap between the giant-killing event and the giant-killer’s next outing.

And keep a note of all bets placed. I think you’ll find that over time this strategy will add extra profits to your betting account.

My friend makes his living from the following angle amongst many others, but before I delve into it fully I first want to bring you back to my school days.

They say school days are the happiest days of your life.

I guess there's some truth in that somewhere but I seemed to spend rather a lot of my 'happy' school days languishing in the corridor for talking too much in class.

I like to think it wasn't an entire waste of time in that I became quite adept at dodging the Head if he appeared during my temporary expulsions from the classroom. Even so, I have to admit it was a nail-biting close run thing at times.

The 'get out and stand in the corridor' punishment was meted out for all manner of minor transgressions and I take comfort from the fact I wasn't the only one to receive the sentence.

There were, of course, those who never did put a foot wrong. Nothing wrong with that, I hasten to add, but within their ranks there were one or two who were, well...a wee bit over the top with their displays of fawning conformity.

I won't tell you what the rest of us called them, save to say it was a tad more robust than 'teacher's pet'—if you catch my drift.

In later life I discovered that individuals who have a need to overly ingratiate themselves with those in charge are not confined to school days.

They're everywhere in the adult world...including the workplace, where in extreme cases they frequently find themselves ostracised by fellow employees.

So what's all that got to do with betting?

I'm glad you asked!

I'll admit right up front that it's a somewhat tenuous link but the mind set I'm about to highlight is rooted in the same psychological need to demonstrate personal worth to those in authority.

A new gaffer takes over a football club and—despite the team having had a run of poor results immediately before—the players instantly raise their game to either win or draw!

I've seen that happen time and time again—a win or draw first time out under a new manager which belies the team's lowly position in the league.

I will just pluck one example of this from the many that happen all too often.

When Aston Villa appointed new manager Steve Bruce his first game in charge was against Wolves. Although Villa were favourites, I would have fancied a Wolves win under the old regime. However, with Bruce in place, I felt Villa would either win or draw because the players would be looking to impress their new boss in order to maintain their first team place or even to secure their position at the club and their involvement in its future plans.

The match ended 1-1 and, as it happens, Villa were lucky to get a point. Nonetheless, I'm confident there's a realistic edge to be had here with a win bet on the team under the new manager and a 'saver bet' on the draw.

A more recent example was when David Moyes joined West Ham and his players certainly over performed for their new manager when they won 4-0 in his first match!

The combination of players wanting to impress and a lift in spirits in the dressing room with their new manager makes them tough opponents to beat in their first match and as such don’t ignore this point if you’re thinking about backing against teams with new managers.

There's plenty of opportunity to follow through on this tactic. New managers are appointed all the time in leagues across the world and the same psychology surely applies abroad just as it clearly does to British domestic leagues.

And the way the football managerial merry-go-round is these days, I'm surprised clubs don't have revolving doors on the manager's office.

As mentioned earlier my friend makes his living from a portfolio of these angles and for the full version of these profitable blueprints plus many others please check out my Quick Fire Betting profits course.

Due to the current situation many of us have more time on our hands and you may want to use this time to discover a whole host of new betting methods, strategies, Video Tutorials, Webinars, Bonuses and betting related articles.

You will then be ready to make use of them and profit when sport is fully back to normal. Some can even be used to identify ready to make profits even with the limited sports available as I cover many that are still going.

To Sum up…

Most bettors/traders always seem to stick with pure form based on stats, which of course is fine if that’s your way of finding winners and it works for you.

However there is no harm in adding a psychological dimension to your selection process: after all, it may give you that extra bit of value in your final selections. That’s what profiting from this game is all about, finding new and often overlooked edges to gain that value.

All the best, Andrew David

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May Acorns: Trainers with Horses Returning from a 120+ Day Break

I'm writing this month’s article on what should have been the eve of Newmarket's Craven Meeting. I should have been talking about the first two English Classics, Chester's May Festival and York's Dante Meeting.

Sadly, the world is the grip of what looks like the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. No racing is taking place at present in the UK & Ireland or in many other racing jurisdictions around the world due to Covid-19.

When will the sport return?

Well we do know that National Hunt Racing is postponed both sides of the Irish Sea until July 1st. However, there are some hopes the racing could resume in an albeit limited state behind closed doors next month.

Last month I looked at a handful of trainers whose horses could be worth following in April.

Thanks to Covid-19 that turned out to be a waste of effort.

When racing finally restarts, not only do punters face the usual problem of horses returning from a long absence from the track they also face an additional problem of many training establishments having to overcome the lockdown caused by the Covid-19 outbreak.

With this in mind I’m going to look for trainers with trainers with a good record with their horses returning from a long layoff in the case 120+ days.

To get a decent sample size and also to keep the stats as relevant as possible, I have concentrated on trainers who have had at least 20 runners during the period under research and also taken into consideration only the results since the start of 2015.

As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.

Here are my group of nine trainers whose runners will be worth noting on the flat & all- weather when racing returns to Britain.

Jane Chapple-Hyam

This is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s overall record.

This is her record with horses returning from a 120+day layoff.

Those qualifying runners going off 25/1 & bigger have produced – 0 winners from 19 runners 2 placed.

Advice: Back Jane Chapple-Hyam flat & all-weather runners returning from 120+day break that are 20/1 & under.

Peter Charalambous

Overall record:

Record with runners returning from a 120+day break.

Advice: Back Peter Charalambous trained runners returning from a 120-day break.

Overall Record:

And here is his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.

Following the Elsworth 3-year-old’s after a break looks the way to go. He’s 2 winners from 42 runners 5% +12.5 A/E 0.46 15 placed 36% with runners not in that age group

Advice: Back David Elsworth’s 3-year-old’s returning from a 120-day break.

Overall record:

And here is his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.

Looking at the different strike rates we can see that the trainer’s record is better than might be expected compared to his overall record.

He’s 0 winners from 12 runners -12 0 placed with qualifying runners returned 20/1 & bigger.

So, concentrating on his runners sent off 20/1 & under has produced the following results.

Advice: Back Steve Gollings runners returning from a 120+day break returned 20/1 & under.

Stuart Kittow

Overall record:

And here is his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.

Digging deeper into his record with runners returning from a lay off. He’s 0 winners from 24 runners -24 3 placed 13% with qualifiers 18/1 & bigger.

Adding the race class filter & the odds threshold means the trainer has been winning with 1 in 4 of his runners returning from a break.

Advice: Back Stuart Kittow’s runners returning from a 120+day break that are returned 18/1 & under and are racing in Class 4, Class 5 or Class 6 races.

Karen McLintock

Overall record:

Not a bad win strike rate at around 15% and more importantly the A/E stat indicates her runners are running above market expectations.

Following her qualifiers blind will see long losing runs but with winners at 40/1, 14/1, 12/1 & 11/1 it’s probably going to be worth doing so.

Advice: Back Karen McLintock’s runners returning from a 120+day break.

Martyn Meade

Overall record:

Digging deeper his record with runners returned 14/1 & bigger is 0 winners from 10 runners -10 1 placed 10%.

Normally I would like to see the Chi score at 3 and above but a near 32%-win strike rate is more than acceptable and there shouldn’t be much damage to the betting bank if following his qualifying runners.

Advice: Back Martyn Meade’s runners returning from a 120+day break that are returned 12/1 & under.

Overall record:

And his record with runners returning from a 120+day break.

Looking at his record by race type:

He has had winners in non-handicap races but I would probably concentrate on his handicap qualifiers who are performing 68% better than market expectations and have a high Chi score.

Advice: Back Johnny Portman Handicap runners returning from a 120+day break.

Overall record:

And her record with runners returning from a 120+day break.

Granted not many qualifiers but there is no doubt that Pam Sly can prepare a horse after a long layoff. Although I have concentrated on the flat and all-weather it’s worth noting that she also has a fantastic record with her National Hunt runners returning from a lay off.

Summary: There you have this month’s offering.

Nine trainers who have an outstanding record with runners returning from a long layoff.

Between them they have produced the following set of results:

Breakdown by year:

System 77: Back runners from the following stables which have been off the track for more than 120 days on the Flat and All Weather.

I have added a few angles that can improve the win strike rate and profit and may cut down on the losing runs but you could probably back the trainers qualifying runners blind and make a profit as would have for the last 5-years.

Like many methods. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

Until next month when hopefully we will have seen a return of horse racing.

John Burke

Four Steps to Winning on US Horse Racing

Without UK racing taking place, a lot of people have turned to U.S. racing to place their bets. It’s understandable, along with Australia it’s the only place in the world with horse racing taking place.

I started my journey in betting on U.S. race tracks, and if you’re going to bet on them it’s important to know that…

…they behave very differently to the UK!

The conditions are completely different. Generally the races are much shorter. The amount of data available on the horses is much greater. And the primary method of betting is pool betting.

Most importantly, the big teams in the U.S. dominate the pools. They invest millions in market manipulation to get their competitors to bet on the wrong horses.

Those of us placing small bets, comparatively, get caught up in the battles which are raging beyond our sight.

Whilst the basic skills are transferable, profiting from U.S. racing is different to profiting from UK racing.

Should you bet on U.S Racing?

The answer, in my opinion, is going to depend on the reason you want to bet on U.S. racing.

If it’s to place some fun bets on live racing, and have a bit of action while you’re waiting for UK racing to start again… why not.

U.S. racing is definitely good fun, and with the high volume of races taking place, there’s enough action to keep you going all through the night!

But if you want to make a profit from your betting.

If your aim is to be a long-term profitable bettor.

Then you shouldn’t be betting on U.S. racing (except for fun money) unless you intend to continue betting on it into the future.

And the reason is simple… because it’s not the same as UK racing.

That means you need to learn what factors have an edge on the US tracks.

One thing can be guaranteed:

You won’t be able to use your UK strategies and systems over the pond profitably. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work like that.

How to find winners in U.S: Racing

If betting on U.S. racing is something that you want to do then you need to get off the ground running.

To do that, there are a few things you should consider.

Number 1

U.S. races are generally short. They most often run between 5 and 12 furlongs, with a preference towards the shorter races.

This means that speed is incredibly important.

However, there’s a huge amount of data out there, and U.S. race bettors are very savvy with their data usage, far more so than the general bettors in the UK.

Which means that while speed and pace are critical in the search of the winner. You’ll find it very difficult to make a profit using those elements alone.

With that in mind, you can concentrate on the shortest race (which is most), and use speed to find the strongest horses.

Then you need to use some other pieces of information in order to see if you can get an edge on the bet.

The best way to do this is to do something that a lot of the bettors in the U.S. don’t do… read form!

Data is so heavily used, software is so prevalent, and so many people bet statistically, that as lovers of UK racing, we can bring our experience in form reading to the front.

Start by finding the strongest horses from a speed base, and then…

Number 2

Once you’ve got the top two or three strongest horses based on speed, we want to do some form reading to see if the horses can compete.

You don’t want to go into overkill, just focus on three areas:

1) Distance 2) Course 3) Recent Performance

Nothing complex is required.

You’re focusing on the shortest of races, I’d suggest five furlongs and less initially, and in these races only a few factors make a significant impact. The biggest, speed, has already been accounted for, and now we’re covering three of the others.

If you’ve never read form before, don’t worry, anybody can do this!

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Check to see if the horse has run over the same distance as today and finished as the winner, or within one and a half lengths of the winner. If it has, put a tick next to its name. If the horse has done it within the last 120 days, put another tick next to its name.

Repeat the same process for the course.

When you’ve done this you’ll have between 0 and 4 ticks for each of your strongest horses.

Then you can move to recent performance…

Any horse that hasn’t raced in a year remove from your contenders list, you don’t want to be risking your money on a horse that hasn’t run.

Should you find that you get stuck into U.S. racing and continue to follow it, there’s a good angle to be had here as all training runs have to be declared in the U.S. That means even if a horse hasn’t run for a long time, you can see how it’s been performing (something I think the UK should adopt). However, it’s a different approach and if there’s interest I can look at writing about it in the future.

You’ll now be left with anything from zero to four horses in the race, assuming you started with the four strongest on speed.

Next to each you’ll have between zero and four ticks, the more ticks a horse has the potentially stronger you can expect it to be.

Number 3

The final consideration is the odds. Personally I don’t like to bet at odds of higher than 29/1. Horses with odds higher than this do win races, but don’t win them with enough frequency for me to want to bet on them.

Remove all horses with odds higher than 29/1 from consideration. Most of the time your horses won’t have odds this high, but go through the process of doing it anyway.

Lastly, consider any horses in the top three of the betting, the three lowest odds, that weren’t in your original contenders.

Repeat the process from consideration #2 for these runners, and you will be left with a clear image of the strongest horses in the race.

You don’t have to bet on a single horse to win. You can bet on horses to place. You can do each-way bets, as well as dutch bets and 80/20 bets.

Your bet should be based on how much risk you are prepared to accept, and how many horses you think have a strong chance of winning the race.

An Alternative Option

Instead of risking your money on U.S. racing, there is another option…

At the Race Advisor we have Aldermist race course, our very own virtual race course.

This isn’t the same as a bookmaker race course.

Virtual racing at the bookmakers is effectively a lottery, powered by a random number generator. The horses aren’t real, they have no form, and all you have to do is make a decision on how to bet are the odds.

Aldermist is different…

Every single race is based on historical data. All the horses racing are real horses, with complete form histories, trained by real trainers and ridden by real jockeys, both with full histories.

You can see every single rating in our armoury for every horse in the race. You can use every single tool at Aldermist that you can use on live racing.

AND…

…the results are based on each horse’s true chance of winning the race!

In other words, Aldermist races behave exactly like a real race.

Which means you can build and test betting strategies and systems on it, without risking a single penny, safe in the knowledge that if you’re long-term profitable at Aldermist, you’ll be long-term profitable on live racing.

With a race every ten minutes, twenty four hours a day, it’s possible to build and test strategies 344% faster than the real world.

And, because you don’t know the results before the race is run it’s impossible to back fit your strategies.

Even when there is live racing, there’s never been a better way to practice your betting systems without any risk than doing it at Aldermist.

Challenges, designed to improve your betting, move you from Hobbyist to Pro, and you can get started completely FREE (no credit card required) at www.raceadvisor.co.uk

Michael Wilding

www.valuerater.co.uk

A Q and A Matt Mitter of the Value Rater Platform

Hi Matt, and many thanks for joining us this month, first off would you start by telling our readers a little about yourself and your background?

I’m CEO of the Value Rater Platform Limited which provides relevant information for Horse Racing Enthusiasts. My interest in horse racing started around 1995 where I started out punting in betting shops before going on to work in one. I later went on to work on course pro punting before having my own Radio Show every Saturday morning where the name ‘Value Rater ‘was born.

Would you say that you have a “typical” working day, and how would you describe it?

Horse Racing is a way of life these days with not much time for anything else. My working day would start at 7am (Monday- Saturday) looking through the card I will be attending before setting off in the car to the race meeting.

Once home I will watch the replays and try and make sense of the form and update my paddock notes.

What do you think of the world of sports tipping in general and what do you think people are in search of when it comes to their hunt for a successful tipster?

Without doubt there are some very good Horse Racing tipsters out there but, in my opinion, more bad ones. If someone is willing to pay for a service, they should be receiving expertise, not a semi-professional view. In my experience customers just want an honest service where they can see the tipster is at least working hard for them. Of course, the results are important.

My biggest frustration with punters is expecting too much of a service the truth as a pro punter is if you can make 10% of your turnover you are doing very well.

Do you regularly bet yourself? What style of approach do you take to your betting? What do you think of staking plans, loss retrieval systems etc.?

Yes, I average between 3-5 bets per week sometimes more during the summer months, because I am on course all the time, I will only have a bet once I've seen them in the paddock and gone down to post.

I am very restricted with betting accounts so unable to get the early value; this is where my customers make hay. It’s frustrating when the price has gone come post time, but these days I will cheer it on for the Racing Club rather than take the shorter price. I find bigger meetings the prices hold up much better so in turn most of my personal bets will come on a Saturday or major festivals.

As for staking plans, I am a very level punter, 1pt win or 1pt each way (if horse if 5/1 or bigger). I’ve tried many staking levels over the years but this one suits me. Whatever you decide to do, I think you must stick with it and see it out. You must accept that you will be wrong more times then you are right hence why finding value is very important.

What attracted you to the world of horse racing and what do you enjoy most about the sport?

Like most people I suppose the Grand National as a child was my first introduction to horse racing. I remember in my teens seeing all the form on the walls in the betting shop, but no one was looking at it.

I became obsessed about the sport and researched it from the age of 16; I certainly didn’t want to work for a living. I love being around the horses at the races and it’s working out the puzzle of a race I enjoy most.

I like to think I work much harder than the next tipster by not leaving a stone unturned. I don’t meet many tipsters daily on the racetrack which is the place I think you find the edge around the paddock. I have not only worked hard on my form study but now view myself as not a bad paddock judge. To have an edge in this game you need to work harder than the next person as there is so much information online these days. I sacrifice a normal life to be the best I can be for my customers.

New and old punters alike can struggle to make a success of their betting. If you could give them just one piece of advice to improve their profitability what would it be?

Be honest with yourself and record all your bets, you will spot patterns in the areas that you are more successful in. With so much racing on these days be selective whether it will be doing one race card or specialising with certain distances.

It’s ok not to have a bet if nothing stands out, the time spent researching will always pay you later down the line.

No such thing as wasted time reading the form!

What would you consider to be a highlight of your racing experience to date? Do you have any personal racing / betting experiences which when reflecting back brings a smile, or for that matter any which bring a grimace; you can share with our readers?

My highlight to date is growing Value Rater from scratch and seeing it grow over the last 6 years. Seeing your brand displayed on Starting Stalls always brings a smile to my face.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd I do remember back in 2015 thinking I had pulled the place pot off only to find out on one leg I inserted the wrong number. That took a few years to get over as it would have been a decent pay-out.

What about the gambling industry, is there anything you like to see changed there? Many website forums are full of criticisms of the bookmakers and their treatment of their customers? Is this something you have an opinion on?

I am very concerned with all the betting accounts getting closed for not winning much money. It seems to me that the high levels of Horse Racing sponsorship from bookmakers is a smoke screen to really find casino players and such like.

The bookmaker's IT systems seem designed to pick up on the patterns of someone they deem might be successful and therefore restrict or close them down. I suppose if someone kept taking money out of your business you wouldn’t stand for it either.

My advice is to open as many accounts as possible and scatter money about, we all love the first restricting letter, it makes us feel we are good, it does become a problem later though.

What do you do to relax and unwind? What interests have you outside the world of horse racing?

I started Motor Racing last year which is great; I finally found something that switches me off from Horse Racing. Not a cheap hobby, but trust me when going 100mph plus around a circuit you don’t have time to think of anything else. It’s a new challenge and clears my mind believe it or not.

You can find out more about Matt and Value Rater by clicking here.

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The Epsom Classics

The prestigious Epsom Derby and Oaks, both run over a distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs, are the races in focus.

Epsom is well known for its tricky undulating surface and bends, and the consensus is usually focused around whether a horse is a well-balanced type which will handle the gradients. There may already be evidence indicating that a horse is likely to be effective at Epsom by winning or performing well at a similar track, thus enhancing its profile.

I take a totally different view of what is primarily required to win these races.

Firstly the Derby, irrespective of whether a horse is big, small or medium in stature, there is usually one paramount factor required to win a Derby - SPEED.

Joseph O’Brien, rider of CAMELOT, said after winning in 2012 “The horse struggled to handle the descent and didn’t know what to do with his feet at Tattenham Corner. “If you watch, he also hung down the camber in the last 150 yards. (Speed won it for him by 5 lengths.)

Staying the distance is important, but many Derby winners have the speed to win over shorter, and 1 mile four furlongs can be the absolute maximum of their stamina.

Not many Derby winners attempt the longer distance of the St. Leger, and NIJINSKY was the last extremely talented horse to win 2,000 Guineas, Derby & St Leger in 1970.

If you watch previous Derby’s there is a definite theme to the running of the race. From the start it is usually run at a reasonably good gallop and by the time the field descends around Tattenham Corner the leaders are stretching for home, and more often than not it is difficult to envisage anything getting near them.

Keep watching as the race can, and frequently does, dramatically change towards the last 2 furlongs, with the top class horses having the ability to quicken, bringing them bang into contention. (Watch WORKFORCE winning in course record time.)

The job is by no way finished, as this is where further speed is demanded to grab the initiative, and then bare stamina at around this trip is enough to secure the Premier British Classic.

The Oaks represents a completely different challenge altogether.

Obviously speed is always an asset on the flat, but in this particular classic I submit you need a filly that stays further than 1 mile 4 furlongs and stamina more than speed usually wins this race.

Make no mistake; unless you have a filly with a rare speed/stamina combination, it is guts and staying power that you want on your side.

It appears to me that the speedier fillies are usually trained abroad and bypass the Oaks. As a point in question just look at the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe winners (ZARKAVA, DANEDREAM and TREVE.)

If we then analyse the results of the Grade 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth stakes at Ascot, it provides further evidence that the majority of fillies do not have the speed at the highest level to win at this distance.

The exception was DANEDREAM, course record holder of the 2011 Arc De Triomphe. She in 2012 was the first filly to win the King George since TIME CHARTER in 1983 and more noteworthy, the only filly to ever win both Arc & King George.

I am convinced by past winning performances of the Epsom Oaks, that a tough staying filly has a definite advantage.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd LOOK HERE, SNOW FAIRY and TALENT I think, verify my thought process by subsequently running big races in the St. Leger (1 mile 6 furlongs+) in 2008, 2011 and 2013, being 3rd, 4th and 2nd respectively.

My priority is to scrutinise the breeding, as I feel it will provide an edge as to expected stamina and a possible winner at value odds.

Matt Mitter https://www.valuerater.co.uk/

(CC BY 4.0) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/113417287@N08/ Curragh Racecourse: The Home of Irish Flat Racing

Last month, on this tour of Irish Racecourses I looked at Fairyhouse racecourse, the home of the Irish Grand National. This month I’m looking at the Curragh. The racecourse where flat racing champions are made. As before, I will begin by looking briefly at the track’s location, history, configuration before highlighting some significant track stats. History and Location Located near Newbridge and Kildare town in the county of Kildare the plains of the Curragh are entwined with the history of horse racing in Ireland. Indeed, the name "Curragh" comes from the Gaelic word Cuirreach, meaning "place of the running horse". Not surprising then that the Curragh should be the home of Irish racing. There is some evidence that plains of the Curragh were being used by Irish Chieftains for horse or chariot racing as early as the third century. However, written records for horse racing in the area date back to only the mid-17th century.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd As was the case in England, the restoration of King Charles II to the throne saw the active encouragement of the breeding and training of racehorses. And led to the Curragh Plains becoming a natural home for such activity. Local records indicate that regular race meetings were taking place on the Curragh in the early 18th Century with the first race meeting held under rules taking place in 1741. In 1866, the Curragh staged the first running of the Irish Derby, and the British parliament passed the first Curragh Kildare Act in 1868. This Act of Parliament designated 4,857 acres as common pasture and enshrined that horse racing & training could take place in the area. A major redevelopment of the Curragh grandstand and racecourse facilities began in 2017 which meant a shorter fixture list with some fixtures moved to neighbouring racecourses although racing continued to be held at the course during the redevelopment with temporary facilities in place for the public.

The new Curragh racecourse opened its doors in May 2019 with a new grandstand, parade rings, as well as completely refurbished stable blocks. Ireland’s spiritual home of horse racing now provides world-class facilities and a fantastic experience for all racegoers. There are many similarities between the Curragh and its English equivalent Newmarket. About 25% of Irish racehorses are trained at the Curragh and there are also a large number of breeding operations in the area, including the Irish National Stud. The Curragh is not only the headquarters of Irish Racing but is also the venue for all five Irish classics and hosts the second day of Irish Champions Weekend. For those coming by car the racecourse is located just off the M7, the main Dublin/Cork road. And for those coming by public transport there are regular train services from Dublin’s Heuston Railway Station to Kildare and Newbridge train stations from which racegoers can catch a free shuttle bus to the track. Track Configuration

The course is a galloping, right-handed horseshoe shaped track and about two miles long, with a straight run-in of three furlongs which is slightly uphill to the winning post. Course Map The racecourse is a fair track, which is ideally suited for galloping types, although it can be deceptive as there is a fair amount of turning on the Derby track and thus a low draw can be a positive. It’s also worth noting that when racing over distances 1m+ there are two courses. The majority of races are run on the “new” course but at one meeting last season both courses were in operation.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd On the sprint track, when the stalls are on the stand side, a high draw is preferred no matter what the ground is like, as there is a slight camber from the stand side down to the far side, which means the stand side is usually quicker. When the running rail is moved into the middle of the straight track, the draw isn’t as important but once again a high draw isn’t a negative. Over the 1m/7f tracks, there don’t seem to be any biases, though horses do tend to come across to the middle and even to the stands side if the ground is soft or heavy. Curragh Key Stats Let’s begin by looking at some general stats at the racecourse including clear favourites, winning odds and wins at the track. The stats below are from Jan 1st, 2015 to the time of writing (07/04/20). Once again, I am using the ever reliable www.horseracebase.com for all the stats. The results below contain 704 winners from 8356 runners 2039 placed

Favourites Clear favourites have produced the following set of results:

207 winners from 643 runners 32% -63.72 A/E 0.92 388 placed. Breaking those results down into handicap & non-handicap races gives us: 1. Non-handicaps – 156 winners from 402 runners 39% -29.53 A/E 0.93 271 placed 67%.

2. Handicaps – 51 winners from 241 runners 21% -34.19 A/E 0.88 117 placed 49%.

Summary: Winning favourites for all Irish flat races in the period under research is 32% so the Curragh strike rate is bang on the average so nothing to see here.

General Stats Odds SP: 12/1 & above

116 winners from 4690 runners 2% -2320 A/E 0.56 562 placed 12% Summary: Runners sent off 11/1 & under are favoured. Yes, there are big priced winners to be found at the Curragh but as at most tracks the pool is a small one to be fishing in. Wins at Track: 1+

156 winners from 1383 runners 11% -318.25 A/E 0.85 436 placed 32%

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Summary: The Curragh is a fair galloping track so it isn’t really a ‘horses for courses’ track with the 11%-win strike rate for previous course winners being average for Irish flat racecourses. Trainers to Note

Given the Curragh is Ireland’s premier flat racecourse you would expect that winning races here is tough and so it is, with the winners being spread around the training community. That being the case it’s not easy to find too many noteworthy trainers stats. However, here are a few angles that are worth highlighting.

DERMOT WELD Race Distance: 1m 2 ½ f to 2m Odds SP: 7/1 & under 11 winners from 23 runners 48% +19.59 A/E 1.61 14 placed 61%

Summary: The trainer is 2 winners from 35 runners 5% +10 A/E 0.81 7 placed 20% with runners sent off 15/2 or bigger. Granted you could have made a profit backing all his qualifiers but the profit is based around a 33/1 winner. So, the advice would be to concentrate on his qualifiers that are at the front end of the market over this distance range.

AIDAN O’BRIEN Race Distance: 1m 6f to 2m Horse Age: 3yo only 9 winners from 20 runners 45% +10.77 A/E 1.75 11 placed 55%

Summary: Like Dermot Weld, Aidan O’Brien has done well with his runners over the longer distances at the Curragh, especially his qualifiers from the classic generation. He’s 4 winners from 16 runners 25% -8.42 A/E 0.74 6 placed 38% with his older horses over the distance range. Yes, 1 in 4 of such runners win their races but as the A/E stat indicates they offer punters little in the way of value.

Summary: Champion Irish NH trainer Willie Mullins handicappers are always worth a second look given how well he places them.

PADDY TWOMEY Horse Age: 2yo & 3yo 4 winners from 14 runners 29% +1.75 A/E 1.37 11 placed 79%

Summary: Granted a very small sample size and nothing special on the win profit side but the trainer has an exceptionally good place strike rate and if you had backed all his qualifying runners each way you would have made +14.48 points profit. Next month, I will be looking at Navan racecourse. Until next time.

John Burke

Image by Rudy and Peter Skitterians from Pixabay

Flat Stallions & Trainer Micro Angles

Introduction

Inspired by a chapter in Nick Mordin's book 'Winning Without Thinking' on pedigrees I thought I'd take a different look at 'the Flat' (Turf) - well, different for me anyway.

Long term success in this game generally depends on thinking outside the box or in any case looking at races/horses in a contrarian way, different to the general mass of punters. We need an edge when it comes to our methods, including looking at angles/stats/'ways in' that are as yet not in the mainstream.

We must be homing in on horses underestimated by other punters. This is something I need to do more of and as Mordin reflects ‘In horse racing almost everything is the exact opposite of what we expect it to be’. Every angle has a shelf life but with any luck some of the following angles will keep ticking over for the next season or two.

What follows is a look at certain trainers who do well with the offspring of certain sires. I'll explain the logic as I go through each angle below.

I've used Horse Race Base for this research and have looked at the previous 10 calendar years.

John Gosden - Stallion: Dubawi

Racing Post Sire comment: unbeaten 2yo, inc National Stakes; won Irish Guineas & Jacques le Marois at 3; exceptional sire

● Sex: Filly ● Going: Good to Firm ● Any odds

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E ALL 32 18 56.25 68.58 23 71.88 214.31 96.04 19.8 1.76 2019 9 6 66.67 12.71 7 77.78 141.22 18.01 2.09 1.66 2018 11 4 36.36 -0.58 7 63.64 -5.27 -0.05 4.08 1.22 2017 3 2 66.67 11 2 66.67 366.67 12.4 1.62 4.08 2016 6 4 66.67 10.12 5 83.33 168.67 10.23 4.17 1.6 2015 2 2 100 36.33 2 100 1816.5 56.46 8.86 7.69 2014 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -100 -1 -1 0

The first of a handful of angles that focus on fillies and there's plenty of logic for doing so, especially from a pedigree perspective. A well-bred filly can be worth plenty as a broodmare, especially to any owner-breeders. (Checking the ownership of 'qualifiers' as they appear could be another 'edge').

Obviously they're worth more to potential breeders if they've won races and shown a winning attitude - it makes sense for trainers to get wins on the board with such types, asap. I doubt fillies within angles such as this are running for a handicap mark! All thoroughbreds can be tricky but arguably fillies can be harder to handle more generally and getting the best out of them is a skill in itself. Some trainers will be better with the ladies than others!

Often they may lack 'form' in the book, which is to our advantage, if we have other information at hand that it may take longer for the market to cotton onto.

Arguably angles such as this could be far more valuable to us than those that may focus on races packed with exposed handicappers, where information on what horses are well handicapped and suited to the race conditions is more widespread, and often already built into the odds.

John Gosden clearly knows what he's doing with Dubawi fillies and they seem best on Good to Firm ground - well certainly the ones he gets. These stats actually cover the last 5 seasons and 2019 was his best year yet with them - as a trainer has more success with certain types of horses/ pedigrees etc. it makes sense that they may try and buy more for future seasons.

All trainers can be creatures of habit and that can include the blood-lines/families they like to train, the agents they use and the sales they target. And also their relationships with particular owners, who will send them horses.

There's clear 'trainer behaviour logic' when it comes to pedigrees yet this is an area that isn't widely discussed from what I can see (you certainly won't find stats like the above in that day's Racing Post I doubt) and maybe that can give us an 'edge' moving forwards.

Another John Gosden angle….

● Stallion: Galileo - Racing Post Sire comment: champion 3yo colt, inc Derby, Irish Derby & King George; from outstanding family; phenomenal sire. ● Sex: Colt ● Horse Runs Career: 0

23 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 36% sr / +13 SP / +20 BFSP / AE 1.67

Jim Bolger - Stallion: Vocalised

Racing Post Sire comment:$560k yearling, winning 2yo and very smart 7f 3yo, inc dual Group 3; top-class US pedigree

● Sex: Filly ● 0 runs this season ● 25/1< SP (guide, 0/13,0p bigger)

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E ALL 52 10 19.23 91.5 14 26.92 175.96 163.38 23.88 2.35 2019 12 3 25 43 5 41.67 358.33 75.72 16.68 3.37 2018 14 3 21.43 31 4 28.57 221.43 45.69 12.88 3.13 2017 11 3 27.27 27 4 36.36 245.45 51.06 7.02 2.56 2016 3 0 0 -3 0 0 -100 -3 -3 0 2015 8 0 0 -8 0 0 -100 -8 -8 0 2014 4 1 25 1.5 1 25 37.5 1.9 -1.71 2.56

Jim Bolger is an excellent trainer and breeder (Redmondstown Stud). He knows Vocalised well, having trained him to Group 3 success. Now he breeds/trains his kids.

As you can see he's got a decent record with his filly offspring, having their first run of the season (or making their debut).

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd All bar one of these winners had 3 or fewer career runs and those making seasonal debut (with a run already in their career) were returning after at least 151+ days off. Bar the trainers modus operandi or recent form, there often won't be much information to go on with horses like this, given how lightly raced they are. This is where angles such as this can help, trying to act before any money talks. Although many of these winners were sent off at double figure prices, indicating the general punting public didn't see it coming.

Good news.

Given Bolger's breeding operation it makes sense that he'd want to get wins with these fillies asap and this is the time to catch his Vocalised daughters, systematically at least - racecourse debut and/or seasonal debut.

Aidan O’Brien - Dam Stallion: Pivotal

The RP Sire Comment for Pivotal: high-class sprinter, excellent sire, can get fast, high- class 2yos, progeny often progress well.

● Sex: Filly ● 20/1< SP (guide, 0/11,0p above)

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E ALL 105 35 33.33 78.66 58 55.24 74.91 119.78 19.32 1.33 2019 37 12 32.43 28.94 20 54.05 78.22 44.42 4.9 1.16 2018 34 13 38.24 26.71 18 52.94 78.56 36.33 6.89 1.7 2017 18 5 27.78 27.4 10 55.56 152.22 43.08 3.69 1.27 2016 11 4 36.36 -1.77 9 81.82 -16.09 -1.64 7.36 1.29 2015 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -100 -1 -1 0 2014 4 1 25 -1.62 1 25 -40.5 -1.41 -2.53 0.88

I can't say I started this research exercise expecting to find a pedigree 'way in' for Aidan O'Brien - but he does well with the daughters of mares who were sired by Pivotal.

Coolmore appears to have clocked onto Pivotal's success with his broodmare daughters and within this angle, as you can see from the table in the main report - 2019 had the most 'qualifiers'.

I suspect this is the sort of angle that may have a shorter shelf life than some given the connections involved but then again, like with all these angles, I don't think it's something the wider betting public will be aware of yet, or take much interest in.

There is always breeding method to Coolmore's madness.

● Sex: Colts ● Distance: 5-7 furlongs ● Race Type: Maidens / Novices / Handicaps (not nursery) ● Any odds

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E ALL 153 43 28.1 161.28 65 42.48 105.41 222.33 26.69 1.64 2019 28 6 21.43 7.25 13 46.43 25.89 14.11 12.06 1.27 2018 26 8 30.77 16 12 46.15 61.54 21.87 -0.48 1.5 2017 18 5 27.78 23.75 7 38.89 131.94 28.56 2.14 1.55 2016 9 3 33.33 1.44 4 44.44 16 2.65 -1.19 1.53 2015 18 4 22.22 -3.62 7 38.89 -20.11 -2.37 -3.94 1.1 2014 27 7 25.93 57.33 12 44.44 212.33 84.04 16.5 2.03 2013 15 3 20 17.75 3 20 118.33 27.18 -6.41 1.53 2012 12 7 58.33 41.38 7 58.33 344.83 46.28 8.01 3.55

Within this… ● Making racecourse debut or Top 6 LTO:

120 bets / 38 wins/ 55p / 32% sr / +167 SP / +225 BFSP / AE 1.67

● Beaten more than 15L LTO: 1/17, 4p, -14

Racing Post Sire Comments:-

Dream Ahead: brilliant sprinter at 2-3, from fast family (dam won Flying Childers); good start with first 2yos

Exceed And Excel: bullet Australian sprinter; champion sire in Australia and top-class source in Europe

Invincible Spirit: won Haydock Sprint Cup; dam won French Oaks; closely related to sire Kodiac; top-class producer

Not too much to say here really - Johnston does very well with Colts from these three sires and clearly knows how to get the best out of them, and generally early on in their careers over 5-7f. He will obviously know this and that will influence his buying/re- stocking activity.

Success breeding success!

It’s such thinking with these sire angles that should ensure the pattern of behaviour is repeated.

Richard Hannon - Stallion: Footstepsinthesand

Racing Post Sire Comments: lightly raced, smart 6-7f 2yo, won 2000 Guineas on only start at 3; smart family

● Sex: Colts ● Distance: 5-7 furlongs ● All Race Types ● 10/1< SP (guide, 0/9, 1p above)

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E ALL 36 13 36.11 40.84 22 61.11 113.44 49.06 13.41 1.73 2019 10 5 50 15.8 7 70 158 19.75 5.34 1.98 2018 9 3 33.33 8.13 5 55.56 90.33 10.83 3.18 1.71 2017 9 1 11.11 -7.09 5 55.56 -78.78 -7.03 -0.28 0.48 2016 3 2 66.67 15 2 66.67 500 16.05 2.72 5.56 2014 5 2 40 9 3 60 180 9.47 2.44 2.5

Given last season’ success of Mum's Tipple and Threat I suspect Richard Hannon wouldn't mind training some more progeny of Footstepsinthesand - it's that sort of behavioural logic which may ensure this sort of angle ticks along in the next few seasons - provided Hannon has the owners to source the horses/can compete on price - but I’d be surprised if he hasn't been homing in on similar types in recent sales etc., and sales in the future.

Happy Punting, Josh

Josh owns and runs the horse racing blog www.racingtoprofit.co.uk . His main focus is on unique trainer angles and patterns of behaviour, looking at ‘hot form’ and ‘big race’ trends, stats and trainer pointers. Alongside his excellent free content, Josh has created a community of racing enthusiasts within his ‘Members’ Club’. You can follow Josh on Twitter HERE>>> , where you can also keep up to date with his adventures into horse race ownership, with the mare Really Super, trained by Amy Murphy (he owns a hoof, maybe half).

(CC BY 4.0) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/43555660@N00/

Racing Lockdown Ramblings …by Tony Stafford - FromTheStables

Four weeks in and we’re already going stir-crazy. Never mind withdrawal symptoms, more a case for older people of “was there ever a sport called horse racing?” Of course Cheltenham is near enough still to be vividly real in the memory.

The most amazing factor of those four heady days when between 53,000 and 65,000 clustered together in grandstands, around paddocks, in bars and then hostelries and restaurants after racing, is that whole swathes of them haven’t been swept away by Covid 19, especially in Ireland.

You never had to go far to find an Irish voice. I had queued on one of the days when I didn’t have ready access to a box or lunch for a simple coffee and blueberry muffin at one of the impromptu kiosks selling in the lee of the new imposing stand. I got into conversation, with one gentleman of my vintage – 70’s! – and a much younger relative.

It seemed the older man’s wife had taught Ruby Walsh at school back in Ireland. In my Daily Telegraph days I would have had the notebook and pen out taking down details, but in the maelstrom of Cheltenham, I allowed it all to wash over me.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd At another vantage point later the same day, this time stopping for a beer, two much younger Cheltenham regulars, encouraged to open up to a stranger, especially one who had just told them a winner, would have given up their life stories if they hadn’t needed to get back to their mates who they stay with down there every year.

I was with a friend of many years, Harry Taylor for our first visit to Pershore, recommended by a resident of that picturesque location, which we found easily accessible to Cheltenham. Over the years we’ve come in from the east, most often, and many other directions each day, but Pershore across the border in Worcestershire, was easily the fastest route I’ve known, much as Peter Collier suggested it would be.

Peter, friend to Messrs Mullins (Willie) and Elliott, provider and recipient of badges in equal measure and now man about the Midlands after his early life in London, sent me a brochure of likely places to stay in Pershore. On receipt, I contacted the Pensham Barn b and b and we secured two rooms.

It’s hard to believe, having spent the best part of the week there, how we were lucky enough to get it. It had a beautiful location, incredible rooms and fabulous breakfasts.

The biggest change for me, starting from the Wednesday the week post-Cheltenham when racing ended after its one-day spectator-free experiment, was not performing my morning routine. Each day over the past 13 months I have had to keep tabs on the 16 trainers who provide the information base for the FromTheStables service.

A year ago last February I was invited to take over the role when Tipster Platforms added the service to its portfolio from its original owners.

We had a good number of trainers on the books I already knew quite well, others less so. I’d like to think though that after an initial shake-up, two or three leaving and a similar number joining the team in the summer, we had a balanced spread of the market. Gradually we got to know each other better, to the extent that often they told me things I never expected them to.

Sometimes it needs a little thought projection to read the signs, in other cases they’ve come right out with good-priced winners.

Let’s put it this way. From the point that new recruit Hughie Morrison’s first runner on joining us, Telecaster won the Dante Stakes, having encouraged me to make it our nap selection, we were always playing from strength.

It wasn’t until a few weeks after that great result it was pointed out to me that our naps appear in the William Hill Radio Naps Table, which can be accessed every day on the bookmaker’s web site.

Once I was made aware, the old instincts took over. For almost 30 years I had been the Daily Telegraph’s main tipster, as well as at other stages combining it with being that paper’s Racing Editor and Correspondent.

I managed to win the old Sporting Life naps table three times, so once I got the taste last summer, I was never going to let the opportunity go.

Unlike any of the other tipsters, though, in the William Hill naps table, I cannot claim the success as my own. Everyone else is 100 per cent responsible for their tips; our trainers take all the credit. If none of the 16 has a runner, there’s no tip.

In case you were wondering, our full list of trainers is Kim Bailey, Warren Greatrex, Micky Hammond, Shaun Keightley, William Knight, Charlie Longsden, Charlie Mann, Brian Meehan, Hughie Morrison, Fergal O’Brien, Ben Pauling, Nicky Richards, Oliver Sherwood, Ali Stronge, Harry Whittington and Ian Williams. We cover pretty much all the bases, Flat and Jumps.

Every one of them provided at least one winning nap, resulting in an overall Flat- season-long profit figure that easily eclipsed the total of all the other experts confronting them. I directed the right pin into the right hole when needed on occasion, but the glory should all be with the trainers.

If you think, the type of trainers who are on the FromTheStables list are generally medium-sized, so possibly average between 40 and 80 horses. That gives us an overall horse-power approaching 1,000. I can’t wait to get back into the daily swing.

It doesn’t take long to get out of rhythm as the time from 8 a.m. to 10.30 is pretty much taken up most days. For one of them, William Knight, an exciting new phase in his career will be starting when racing resumes.

William, who has been training with considerable success at Angmering Park, West Sussex, home of the late Lady Herries, will be moving into the Rathmoy Stables, most recently occupied by David Lanigan, who is re-locating with his family to train in the US. Lanigan oversaw a big upgrade to Rathmoy which for many years was home to Neville Callaghan. Knight, who works very closely with his brother Richard, a leading bloodstock agent, is understandably looking forward with anticipation to his new project.

The other very nice job I’ve had is Racing manager to the highly-successful divorce lawyer Raymond Tooth.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Since joining him in 2007, after a few years (progressively less lucrative) freelance work following my departure from the Telegraph, we’ve had a great relationship.

Among many highlights were Indian Ink’s six-length victory in the Group One Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot; Punjabi’s 33-1 success in a triple photo-finish with Celestial Halo and Binocular in the 2009 Champion Hurdle and five wins including a Group 1 as a juvenile for French Fifteen.

The brilliant Nicolas Clement sourced, trained and eventually marketed French Fifteen from a 30k yearling into a seven-figure two-year-old when additionally collecting 250k for his owner (prizemoney and owner’s premium) in the 2011 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud.

It took that large offer to prise the colt away from his owner and had he beaten rather than being beaten by Camelot by a neck in the following year’s 2,000 Guineas, it would have been a case of supreme regret. Indeed I watched that race alongside Derrick Smith, one of the Coolmore owners, in whose colours Camelot ran.

I think we’d have been tempted to link hands and jump off the stands if the result had gone the other way!

Meeting Raymond came completely out of the blue. He’d already been a successful owner for at least 20 years but strangely considering I’d been racing regularly especially at the major meetings for the whole of that period, our paths had never crossed. Then one day, at my lowest ebb, professionally and financially, they did.

To tell the tale, I’d been forced to give up my car, the one with which I left the paper, and was reduced to utilising the Freedom Pass which I’d just become eligible for, to travel around London. I had friends the Ashmore family, in St John’s Wood, so I was able to get to their house via the Jubilee Line from East London. We decided to go to Kempton, and they took me in their car, the usual par for the course in those days.

On leaving the tube, I was walking along the road, going in the opposite way from Lord’s cricket ground, when a tall, young man, probably Croatian or some other Balkan national, stopped me having swooped athletically to the ground and rising triumphantly brandishing an object.

As we got closer, I could see it resembled a ring. He said: “It’s your lucky day. It’s a gold ring!” I couldn’t see why I was lucky, but he continued. “No, I need money for breakfast; it’s your lucky day.” Knowing I had a few pounds in my pocket and nothing in my cleared-out bank account, I laughed, but he persisted. I took the coins out and showed him. He said: “We go to cash point!” “Sorry mate.” I replied. “This is it!”

When I got to my friends I asked them whether they thought it was gold. They couldn’t say either way and while close inspection showed some sort of writing on its inside it was hardly definitive. In those days there was a stall every Kempton meeting that dealt in stuff like jewellery so we decided to ask there. Annoyingly, the new stallholder reported that her predecessor, who had indeed dealt in some jewellery, finished working there at the previous meeting.

Then just as I left her I ran into one of the many people I’d met racing over the years. I thought maybe he’d know.

He said: “Look I’ve no idea if it’s gold, but I have a friend who I can show to find out for you. In the meantime I’m here to back a horse.

I’ll give you £50 for the ring now, and if it wins, I won’t want it back if it isn’t kosher.” His name was Derek Hatter and he reminded me that years earlier I’d managed to find him a couple of Cheltenham tickets in an hour of need.

£50! In those days that was a week’s survival and the horse did indeed win. He, of course was the Nicky Henderson-trained Punjabi, who won the Adonis Hurdle by 19 lengths. Derek took me in to meet Mr Tooth to have a glass of winner’s champagne and the owner asked whether I thought he ought to run in the Triumph. I was all for it and was there when Punjabi finished a good fourth to Katchit.

The ring of course was some sort of curtain runner, but in the event sheer gold for me. That stunt caught out a few people around London’s West End in those days. Soon after I read in the Evening Standard a story by Melvin Bragg, the television performer and writer, about how he’d been confronted by a similar trickster.

By the Festival, the relationship with Mr Tooth was progressing nicely; all the better for a tip I got on Triumph Hurdle day from an old pal Tony Mullins. He stopped me on my way to the toilets, interrupting a call he was making to say; “You mustn’t miss mine in the last”. “Mine” was Pedrobob in the County Hurdle and I conveyed the information to Raymond just before he set off for London before the race to beat the traffic.

Pedrobob won that 28-runner affair quite comfortably at 10-1, listened to by Raymond and Derek in the car waiting in a lay-by. I got a call from Raymond on the following Monday inviting me to his West End office where he offered me the position of his Racing Manager.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Racing in the intervening 13 years has become much harder for smaller owners like Raymond Tooth, but he’s continued to punch above his weight, as he has in the courtrooms of this country where he is the most feared of divorce lawyers.

More recently in racing he has been operating at a lower level numerically, but has had some decent success with home-breds, particularly offspring of his mare Lawyers Choice. She won twice in his colours as a three-year-old in my first year working for him, and has been responsible for five individual winners including Dutch Law, who won us a 50 grand race at Ascot, and Sod’s Law.

Hopes this year revolve around two more of her sons, the unraced three-year-old Bogeyman (by Garswood), with Hughie Morrison and the juvenile Gaelic Law (Mayson), a first for the owner with Joseph O’Brien. Let’s hope one or both proves to be real gold.

Visit surewin.co.uk/fromthestables for more from Tony.

There is also a 28 day trial available for just £1.99. Simply join the mailing list and they will send you a link for the ‘access all areas’ trial as soon as racing returns.

Image by dreamtemp from Pixabay Let’s Do A Little Myth-Busting

In this article, I will use one of my betting strategies to do a bit of myth-busting.

Yes, you can make a profit from short priced selections (an average of 1.26 odds)

Yes, you can make a profit from other-than-level stakes without the need for uncomfortable stake sizes.

Yes, you can make a profit without that all-encompassing search for value.

Yes, you can make a profit from a horse racing strategy which does not even touch the form book.

No, you won’t profit unless you keep a record of bets which you can analyse.

So let’s get started.

Some punters would never, in a million years, entertain backing horses at odds of 1.26 on average. But why not? …..if it makes, and is proven to make, money over 7+ years?

The key to money-making at these odds is the strike rate. In 7 years; my 2-horse race placers have an 82.2% strike rate. ‘Perfick ‘as Pop Larkin would say.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd What is the key to keeping the strike rate high? In my case, the Place market. In an 8+ runner race, our selection need only finish in the top 3 for us to profit. We are not searching singularly for a win. We have some scope for our selection to not win, but still yield a profit.

So, how to make selections without studying the form book?

Another myth busted. I don’t have the time or the inclination to bury my head in the form book, so I make my selections using the Betting Forecast at www.racingpost.com.

I look for a top-heavy market, where 2 horses apparently dominate the betting forecast, and back the bookmaker’s favourite in the ‘to be placed’ market. There is a degree of trust in the Racing Post journo’s conclusions here.

Let’s take a look at the results for the 2-horse race placers using level stakes.

From January 2013, to March 2020, this strategy has made 99 points profit to level stakes.

Yes, it’s a profit, but hardly a profit to get excited about.

Would you have kicked this strategy to the curb (girlfriend?)

There is more to life than level stakes you know.

If you use a staking tool such as the staking machine, (www.thestakingmachine.com) you can look to see if you are maximising profits. And you can be creative. You can look to see if there is a profit for the layer, not just the backer.

You can look to see if your system profits better in a certain price band (in my case, at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5).

You can look over multiple staking plans to find the fit. When you find the fit, you have a reliable long-term profit maker.

Factors to note during analysis?

How smooth is the profit graph?

Do stakes remain manageable throughout? I.e. is there an uncomfortable escalation in stakes at some point throughout the journey? Loss retrieval staking plans can really boost the betting bank, but any looming run of bad results will sharply raise the size of stakes, kill your momentum and possibly the betting bank.

When you find the staking plan (which may be other than level stakes) which suits the selection strategy, then your job is done.

This is precisely what I did with the 2 horse race placers. Remember that, over 7 years, this strategy made 99 points profit to level stakes. That’s 10 +points a year. Really not worth it.

Let me introduce you to the Pro Staking Plan.

Marrying the 2 horse race placers selection system with the Pro Staking Plan has profited every year since 2013 ( one bad year limping over the line as break even /slight profit). Other staking plans also showed a profit but nowhere near the profits of the Pro Staking Plan considering my starting stake (67p).

My analysis also suggested we set an odds limit to selections. We back any 2 horse race placer selection in the Place market as long as the odds are between 1.1 and 1.5 decimal. You can back these selections at bookies such as Paddy Power who provide a place market. My preference is for the place market at www.betfair.com.

Results are based on a £2 target selected in the Pro Staking Plan settings. A starting stake of a whopping 67p!

2013 - Series Profit £2570

2014 - Series Profit £1725.73

2015 - Series Profit £1526.31

2016 - Series Profit £85.53

2017 - Series Profit £746.90

2018 - Series Profit £3.07

2019 - Series Profit £861.02

The worst case scenario (2018) saw a break even position.

Had you carried the profits over into the following year, since 2013, the betting bank would be a handsome £10548 in profit. Not too shabby, from an initial 67p stake. (Increase the target of course, and you increase the returns - and stakes!

If I set my target at £5, the return is £26,222. But the largest stake was £1400. Practical issues ensue. Can we get a bet on at such a stake in the Place market? Possible.)

Below is a comparison of level stakes v the Pro Staking Plan. £10 stakes for level stakes 67p starting stake for Pro Staking Plan.

For those of you interested, here’s a quick look at how the Pro Staking Plan works.

We select a target.

I set my target as £2.

This is the base figure to work from. Each consecutive bet will have £2 added to the target. So, our base figure will look like this:

● Bet 1 Base Target £2

● Bet 2 Base Target £4

● Bet 3 Base Target £6

● Bet 4 Base Target £8

And so on…

Now to selecting our stake.

Our stake is our target (£2, £4, £6 etc.) divided by 3.

The target will be changeable based on the result which will be either ‘Win’ or ‘Lose’

Let’s look at Bet 1

Our base target is £2. Our selection wins at odds of 1.28. We win 18p (don’t spend it all at once now - you might want to parlay this winning into toilet roll or property!).

So, what is our next base target? It is £2+£2, as I explained earlier. £4 is our next base target. But we have already won that life-changing 18p. So our base target needs to change to reflect this.

Take any profit from the new Base Target (£4).

Add any loss to the new Base Target.

Let’s look at Bet 2

Our base target is now £4 minus 18p won from bet 1. Our new Base Target therefore is £3.82.

Our next stake is £3.82 divided by 3 = £1.27

The odds for Bet 2 are 1.35 and the selection wins. We win 42p. Total profit so far is 60p. As we have already made 60p, what will Bet 3’s new target be? The base target is £6. We take away profit already made. New target for Bet 3 is £5.40.

The stake is £5.40 divided by 3 = £1.80

The original Pro Staking Plan sought to reset the stake to its original size after the profit equalled or exceeded the target amount.

My Pro Staking Plan does not include a reset option so is ideally suited to the 2 horse race placers or other very short odds selection systems. I have a rather crude excel spreadsheet I created of the Pro Staking plan. If you’d like a copy, let me know.

What has this case study on one of my horse racing strategies shown you?

● You don’t need to bury your head in the form book to find a profitable strategy. I have profitable laying strategies and the only consultation I make is with the betting forecast of the Racing Post. Race cards have a wealth of information for you to create a possible betting strategy.

● Don’t be scared of Ronnie Corbett-sized odds! It’s the strike rate that’s the key with short-priced selections, and a market such as the place market can ensure a higher strike rate than the win only market. Our purpose is to make money!

● Record results - in chronological order, to Betfair SP (to cater for any lay angle), and showing the result any horse finished (for a possible place/each-way angle).

● Use level stakes as your base, but please don’t use level stakes results as your final decision maker. There may be a staking plan out there which outperforms level stakes without added risk. Something like the Pro Staking Plan which you saw multiplied returns by 10 without the added risk.

Column 1 - date and bet

Column 2 - odds (decimal)

Column 3 - 1 if the bet won, 2 if the bet lost.

I can do quick analysis for you, and who knows, you might find the staking plan to maximise your returns.

Best of luck. Clive Keeling

My email is [email protected]

Photo by Mídia from Pexels American Racing

My wife does not follow the horses but even she knows there is no racing in the UK at the moment. “Why do you still spend so much time on the computer,” she asks, “now all the racecourses are closed?” I replied that there is still racing taking place in other parts of the world; plenty of American Racing on offer for example.

To be honest I don’t know a great deal about what goes on across the pond, bar the obvious things like the Kentucky Derby, the Triple Crown and the Breeders Cup.

(CC BY-SA 4.0) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/jondoeforty1/

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd However I’m not quite as naive as the American comedian Henny Youngman, who once quipped, “I played a great horse yesterday! It took seven horses to beat him.”

So when Darren, at On Course Profits invited me to write this article about American Racing I had to come up with something good and his deadline was fast approaching.

If there’s one thing I’ve learnt from horse racing it’s that patience is a virtue; don’t panic, even if you’re struggling.

A sentiment most punters will agree with.

And then I remembered, yes of course, I have a buddy across the pond in Martin County, Florida, and guess what, she writes articles for Horse Racing Nation, one of the few websites that covers U.S. Thoroughbred racing full-time.

So this punter pioneer, that’s me, resolves to go west and trust in the ‘special relationship’ we have with our friends in the US, specifically my friend Laurie Ross, who knows an awful lot about the effects of pedigree in American racing.

First up she put me right about which tracks are still up and running.

American Racing:

For the foreseeable future, racing is continuing here. Gulfstream Park is open, but it is anyone's guess for how long. The same goes for Tampa Bay Downs, on the west side of Florida.

Golden Gate, in Northern California is still open. (Update now closed)

Oaklawn Park is going strong with no intent to close, since the Arkansas Governor is strongly behind the racing.

Since Churchill Downs has changed the Kentucky Derby to September 5 (without discussing it with horsemen, or the tracks that hold the Preakness & Belmont), Oaklawn has stepped up and moved the Arkansas Derby to May 4th the traditional KY Derby day.

I don't know if they will change the distance to 1 1/4-miles.

Will Rogers Downs & Remington Park in Oklahoma. They run Thoroughbreds, during the spring/summer and quarter horses in the fall.

Developments:

Talks are ongoing to open Santa Anita back up.

(CC BY-SA 4.0) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/tomsaint/

Keeneland has cancelled their spring meet, and of course, Churchill and the Maryland tracks (Pimlico & Laurel) are closed, with no word on when they will open.

Upcoming Races to Consider

Right, so now I know which tracks are racing I can start to consider possible upcoming races and consider stand out horses for them.

Oaklawn Park we know is keen to keep racing and by the time you read this the Oaklawn Invitational for 3yo’s over 9f will have taken place on 11th April.

This is a prep race for the Arkansas Derby (G1) to be held on May 2nd and is likely to attract a large field which may necessitate it being run in 2 divisions.

The winner of the Invitational stands a good chance in the Arkansas Derby, so check when the results are in.

American Pharoah (CC BY-SA 4.0) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/ragingmike/

Churchill Downs isn’t racing at the moment but intends to postpone its Kentucky Derby from 1st week in May to later in the year. This is such an iconic race that it deserves a close investigation as to which horses are likely to run well.

Kentucky Derby

At the moment, Florida Derby winner, Tiz The Law has the most qualifying points, easily winning both starts this year.

Laurie tells me that the horse is ‘from Florida Derby winner Constitution's first crop, Tiz the Law is out of a mare by two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow. The trainer Barclay Tagg and owner Sackatoga Stable previously won the Kentucky Derby with Funny Cide’.

Trainers

One trainer we need to keep on side is Bob Baffert; never seen without his dark glasses and as instantly recognisable as Aidan O’Brien clutching a mobile phone. This man has five Kentucky wins to his credit and his horses deserve a lot of respect. However a note of caution from Laurie who feels he does not possess another American Pharoah this year.

‘I personally don't like his top two, Authentic and Nadal, to handle 10 furlongs.

Authentic is by Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greeley mare. Into Mischief's offspring haven't won beyond 9 furlongs on dirt.

Nadal is by Blame out of a Pulpit mare. His pedigree is better for 10 furlongs, and he has prevailed in all 3 lifetime starts when challenged. He also likes to be on or near the lead.

I would give him more credence over Authentic.

Apart from Baffert’s entries Wells Bayou is worth considering. This 3yo colt is by Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky has an excellent 10f pedigree and likes to make the pace. He won the Louisiana Derby 1m 1 ½ furlongs last time out on fast ground.

Race Tracks

Now what about American race tracks? The very term ‘track’ does not suggest something quite as solid as our own racecourses! In fact who would ever want to race on ground termed as sloppy - soft or heavy one can understand but sloppy suggests a soup-like consistency.

I remember Aiden O’Brian’s George Washington suffered his injury in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Monmouth Park on a sloppy track. Thankfully Laurie assures me that most racing takes place in drier conditions and the going on turf tracks is usually firm. This can sometimes mean hard, as in Florida they may not see rain for 3 months or more.

Many dirt tracks are speed favouring and many of the winners come from horses setting or pressing the pace. Gulfstream turf favours speed horses in sprints and hold-up horses over a mile or further.

To sum up our candidates for the Kentucky Derby, as and when it takes place, I would recommend in order of preference:

1. Tiz The Law 2. Wells Bayou 3. Nadal

Phew! Job done - now I can turn the computer off and do something useful like make my wife a cup of tea!

For more on American Racing you can check out my website page https://www.horse4course-racetips.com/american-racing.html

Chris Wigg

Edwardx / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

Taking the Low Hanging Fruit … Grab £100s in profits from these easy to action Matched Betting Strategies.

Is Matched Betting still a big deal in 2020?

Some may say it’s seen its heyday and they may well be right, a lot of offers have been cut, eroded or made otherwise inaccessible. Bookmakers have merged and others have disappeared.

I mean Matched betting sites are still full of lists of offers, all promising fast returns and easy pickings. But you could easily spend hours trawling through this lot without finding anything that would actually be worthwhile in a real world sense.

What I mean by that is if something takes you 20 minutes to action, and results in a profit of say £1.80.

Was it even worth bothering with?

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd That of course depends on how much you value your time. If you did that type of offer all day you’d be making just £5.40 an hour, hardly going to pay the bills is it!

So what you really need to know is what offers to focus on, where to deposit your funds, and when and how you need to act on them. I’m going to cover a couple of specific offers from SkyBet and Betfred.

Along with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred are probably the best accounts to have for these offers.

Skybet Bet Club

Skybet have probably the most generous bonus terms, the free bets that they credit have no expiry and when they run a risk free or money back offer, its withdrawable cash that you get back in your account.

The weekly bet club offer is a simple bet £25 (@ 2.0 or greater) get £5. Qualifying for the freebet involves placing one £25 bet and laying it off, typically on Smarkets, for a small loss overall.

All you do is enter the back odds, the stake (£25), and the available lay odds into a matched betting calculator and it will tell you the exact stake to use on the lay side to equalise the loss. Once you’ve done this a couple of times it's a very simple process.

The time element here is spent finding a suitable qualifying bet, as it needs to be something that you can lay off on the exchange at odds close to the back odds with Skybet.

So the solution is to use software to find a close match. Oddsmonkey has their “Oddsmatcher” which is my personal go to solution, it enables integration with Smarkets to lay the bet with a single click, and as a bonus of using this integration feature, and I also get 0% commission with Smarkets.

Oddsmonkey is a premium service however which at the time of writing is £17.99 a month –

For those wanting a free solution the “Profit Rush” site has a free to use “Price Matcher” which does the same job.

So you go to your preferred site, find a suitable bet, place the back bet and the lay bet. And you’re done. £5 Free Bet earned.

So, do that one small action every week and over the course of a year you could earn £260 worth of Freebets. Your qualifying losses will be around £67 if we assume a loss of 1.30 per qualifier, which is a conservative estimate.

Now, conventional matched betting wisdom is to convert the free bets into cash by “under laying”, which is essentially a similar process to the qualifying bet process. It guarantees you a profit from each free bet earned.

The downside to doing that is that you’ll only ever get about 70% of the free bet value back. So your £260 would be £182 in cash (0.7 x £5 x 52), less the £67 loss from qualifying bets and we’re only talking about an overall profit of £115 a year from this promo. Not great.

Ideally we want to get as close to that £260 as possible and maybe even turn it into more. So I instead turn to more advanced free bet strategies in order to maximise the free bets in hand.

It's worth noting that Skybet isn’t the only bookie offering a “Weekly Freebet Club”.

At the latest update (March 2020) I had listed a total of £45 worth of free bets available from seven similar “bet club” offers each week.

I list these on a “crib sheet” for my members at Matchdayprofits.com.

Betfred - Bet and Get

Whilst Betfred don’t have a long standing Free Bet Club, they normally have at least one offer a week that is very easy to extract a £5 free bet from.

The easiest and most regular is probably the “Bet £10 inplay get £5”. Look out for this on any high profile matches. They are even offering this on the Belarussian Premier League at the time of writing due to lack of fixtures elsewhere.

With this offer the best way to qualify for the Free Bet is to execute a qualifying bet at HT during the live match in question. This is so that you won’t run the risk of a goal changing the odds in between you backing and laying.

I typically look for something in the 1.5 - 2.0 odds range in a high liquidity market, i.e. BTTS Yes/No or over/unders.

In a typical situation you might back @ 1.67, lay @ 1.77 and your loss would be about 65p.

You’ll then get a £5 free bet the next day, which most of the time you can use as you please on any events. Once you’ve got your three windows/browser tabs open with Betfred/Smarkets/Oddsmonkey executing the qualifier takes literally seconds.

Advanced Freebet strategies:

Cashing out the free bets to get as much as you can from the £5, by “underlaying” is something many new to the matched betting scene do, it's what the matched betting sites tell them to do, and they often tell members they can get up to 80% of the value by doing so.

What they are not telling them however is that by doing this they are going to stand out a mile to the traders that look at the accounts.

This method requires both big odds and often obscure events which is a red flag to bookies, and also requires a chunk of funds to be tied up in exchange accounts to cover liabilities on the lay side.

Then there’s the problem of when they win, which leaves the money in the wrong place, i.e. with the bookmakers - meaning you have to do a withdrawal with them to top up the exchange that just took the hit on the lay side.

You will want to minimise withdrawals from bookmakers to prolong the life of accounts before they get restricted, so ideally you only want to withdraw actual profits from them, not just because your funds are in the wrong place.

I don’t like this approach much. It works, but I think there’s a better way.

What if you know of a tipster or even a selection method or system, that does fairly well? Let’s say a system that returns a 5% profit over time at typical market prices. What if rather than accepting a -20% ROI from the total of free bets (i.e. cashing out for 80%) you could get a 105% ROI or even more from them? So your £260 could turn into much more?

Although it's more volatile, and doesn’t guarantee profits - this is the approach I prefer.

Bear with me on this!

You see normally when we bet with our own money, we get the stakes back when we win, with Free bets we do not. So to maximise their potential profit we must use higher odds. In effect we are leveraging the free bet value.

Take this example:

● We have a £100 bank. ● We bet £10 ten times on 2/1 shots. ● We expect to make a 20% ROI based on our known edge. So four of our bets win on average from every ten bets.

4 winners @ 2/1 = £80. We lose 6 x £10 = -£60.

Overall we are £20 up from £100 staked.

A 20% profit.

The four winners returned £30 each as they included our stakes and our bank is now £120.

Now let's do the same example with free bets.

● We have £100 in free bets. ● We bet £10 ten times on 2/1 shots.

4 winners @ 2/1 net us £80, we have no losses since they are free bets, but we didn’t get the stakes back with the winners as stakes aren’t returned.

So, we have £80 from our initial £100 of free bets - We’ve lost 20% of their value.

Now let's look at 5/1 shots:

● We have a £100 bank. ● We bet £10 ten times on 5/1 shots.

We expect to make a 20% ROI based on our known edge.

So in this case two of our bets win on average from every ten bets.

The two winners returned £60 each as they included our stakes and our bank is now £120.

Now let's do the same example with free bets.

● We have £100 in free bets. ● We bet £10 ten times on 5/1 shots.

2 winners @ 5/1 net us £100 we have no losses since they are free bets, but we didn’t get the stakes back with the winners as stakes aren’t returned.

So, we have £100 from our initial £100, much better.

I could go on but not to bamboozle you with calculations. The evidence is clear - in order to maximise free bets - higher odds are invariably better.

I created this table as a guide on this:

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Now it goes without saying that finding that 20% edge is easier said than done, but it's clear that if we can place free bets at odds close enough to their true odds, or in other words odds that accurately represent their true chances, we will certainly do better over time with our free bet returns.

One of the real world examples of how to best use free bets is to follow profitable accumulator tips. One particular tipster I proof has a 31% ROI over four seasons from 123 bets, (+38.2 pts to level stakes betting). The winning bets would have returned 132.2 pts (discounting the losers/stakes) meaning £661 profit if using £5 free bets.

That’s equivalent to a 107% cashout of the Free Bet Value.

Hope this information helps you and if you’d like to know more add your email at matchdayprofits.com or drop me a message to [email protected]

Image by Free-Photos from Pixabay

Product Reviews

Cost: £1.99 for 15 days introductory offer together with a 30 day money-back satisfaction guarantee and then £37.00 per month thereafter.

The Trial: We have just started to follow Robert, Betting Gods’ Ice Hockey tipster and you can read all about this service here: www.bettinggods.com/betting-gods-tipsters/nhl-betting-master.

With the suspension of the NHL the daily emails now give selections for the Russian matches so there has been no let up on the action and the published results show no slowing down on the profits.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd As we only started four days ago it’s too early to give an opinion but 2 winners from 5 selections look promising and we look forward to giving a full report next time.

If you do go ahead then be aware that although the site says the tips will be delivered between 4.30pm and 6.30pm this has now changed to early morning due to the time difference between the USA and Russia.

You may also find this link helpful for finding where to place bets: https://www.oddsportal.com/hockey/russia/liga-pro-short-hockey/ice-banda- moskovskiy-eshelon-Muv4DXxR/

Conclusion: Too early to say so watch this space, but in the meantime you can find out more here.

Pinpoint Bankers - Cost: £10.00 per month / £20.00 per qtr. / £60.00 p.a.

The Trial: The review of this service was brought to a premature end with the suspension of UK horse racing. Up until that date there had been 28 selections in March with 10 of them being winners, a strike rate of 35.71%.

The winning BOG odds advised the evening before for Bet365 or Boyle Sports (the remaining bookies allowing evening before BOG) ranged between 10/11 (1.91) and 7/2 (4.50) whereas the Betfair SPs ranged between 1.63 and 4.90.

If we were betting at 1-point level stakes this month’s BOG would have given a profit of 1.86 points whilst Betfair SPs would have shown a loss of 1.70.

However, following on from the previous 2 months trial when we started with a 1,000 point bank and staked 2.5% of the closing account on each selection so that after a winner the stake increased whilst it decreased after a loser and employed Betfair SPs, deducting 2% commission from winnings the closing bank had dropped to 620.66 points.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd As you are probably aware reducing stakes after losers and increasing them after winners as recommended here has the advantage of conserving the bank during losing runs but has the disadvantage of always having your smallest stake on a winner and your largest stake on a loser.

If we had taken the same starting bank of 1,000 points and staked a level 25 points per selection the bank would have ended at 765.5 with BOG and 574.75 with Betfair SP after deducting the 2% commission.

Conclusion: Punters Pal stopped updating the results on this service’s website last December when it appeared to be a profitable service. If this reporting is resumed then it may be worth monitoring to see if winning ways return. You can find out more here.

Cost: £149.95

The Trial: This is a horseracing system invented by Roger Purssord and marketed by Sportsworld Publishing and you can read all about it here.

The full results show that since it first went on sale in June last year it has averaged around 60 points profit a month with level 1-point stakes at Betfair SP, the only drawback is that the selections are made just before the start of the race - although the targeted races can be picked well in advance and average between 2 or 3 a day.

The instructions are straightforward and easy to follow.

We started this review on the 4th February and we can verify the accuracy of the reported results since that date.

In our first month, up until the 3rd March, there have been 66 selections, mostly backed 1-point each-way, of which 15 returned a profit, a strike rate of 22.73%.

Conclusion: Watch and wait. You can find out more here.

Carl Nicholson ITV - Cost: £19.99 per month.

The Trial: This review covers the months of February and March. There were 10 winners from 74 selections during the period but many placers in which is a predominantly Each Way service.

The profit was 13.20 points bringing the cumulative position after 5.5 months to 22.88 points. The total outlay during this period was 289.50pts. Our profit was a little lower.

Conclusion: Overall a steady service that gives some entertainment for TV racing enthusiasts. You can find out more about ITV Tips here.

Cost: £2.99 for 28 day trial then £34.99 per month thereafter.

The Trial: After such a good start a correction was inevitable and this coincided with a change in advice times to initially 2.00pm, now 6.00pm. This was done to try to enable subscribers to obtain prices nearer those advised.

We think that aim has probably been achieved but we fear some of the early bookmakers pricing errors have been missed.

There were 20 winners from 73 selections during February and March and a loss of 14.13 points at advised prices. The cumulative position is 72/194 winners and a profit of 60.09pts at advised prices. At SP however there is a loss of 26.37pts showing how important getting on quickly is.

© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Conclusion: We hope the downturn is just a blip, but we fear that the change in times has resulted in value being lost. You can find out more about the service here.

Cost: £2.99 28 day trial then £30.00 per month thereafter, or £75.00 for 3 months / £135.00 for 6 months.

The Trial: This service is from the Tipsters Empire stable and there are advices twice a week covering weekends and mid-week. It is predominantly English and Scottish matches and usually doubles and trebles and can be results or correct scores. We started reviewing on 15th February and up until close down on 10th March there had been 32 advices, 7 wins and a loss at advised prices of 7.54pts.

It started well and was showing a profit of 15pts until the last 10 bets lost. Outlay to date was 77pts.

Conclusion: Early days, but it will obviously be a while before any further bets. You can find out more here.

Cost: Service currently closed due to Covid-19 but you can sign up to be notified when the service returns.

The Trial: I started reviewing this service on the 7th February and to date there have been 7/32 winners and a profit to advised prices of 0.90pts, at prices we were able to obtain there was a loss of 5.10pts.

The service benefits from a more varied staking plan of between 1-5 pts and the better results are from the bigger staked bets. The pressure on prices is not as acute as the other greyhound service being reviewed. Outlay to date is 78pts.

Conclusion: Early days and with Greyhound racing continuing at present I will continue to monitor. In the meantime you can find out more here.