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Equity Research October 8th, 2019 Monthly Andean Strategy Update Reiterating our view on the Andes In September, the Andean and LatAm regions had a positive performance CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH (+2.6% and +2.5% in USD terms, respectively). Across the Andes, the Chilean market was the top performer (USD: +4.2%; CLP: +5.3%) compared to Peru (USD: +3.0%; PEN: +2.6%) and Colombia (USD: -0.6%; COP: +1.2%). Daniel Velandia, CFA +(571) 3394400 ext. 1505 We maintain our Overweight recommendation for Chile, despite a [email protected] strong outperformance in September. • In terms of attribution, nearly ~80% of the outperformance of the index Carolina Ratto was explained by specific shares: i) LATAM (+33%), ii) Enel Am +(562) 2446 1768 (+13%), iii) SQM-B (+13%), iv) Cencosud (+12%) and v) Copec (+6%). [email protected] • Despite recent positive macro figures (largely influenced by specific and favorable factors), the balance of risks is still fragile and tilted to the Tomás Sanhueza downside, especially amid the external risks. +(562) 2446 1751 • Although September was a positive month and a break from a turbulent [email protected] year, the main forces remain latent. However, we still see that is a question of timing and opportunities in the stock market are present, Sebastián Gallego, CFA with shares at attractive entry points. +(571) 3394400 ext. 1594 • The market is still trading at more than one standard deviation from its [email protected] 3-year average P/E Fwd, reaching 16.0x. • Our top picks continue to be Parque Arauco, Colbun and Engie Chile. Daniel Córdova +(511) 416 3333 Ext. 33052 We maintain our Neutral recommendation for Colombia; local trends [email protected] remain healthy, and we will continue to monitor the global scenario amid higher volatility, particularly in the FX market. ▪ The local index declined 0.6% in USD terms during September, while the MSCI Latam increased 2.5% in the same period. ▪ On the local front, recent macro leading indicators suggest that economic activity remains strong; retail sales and industrial production reached their highest points of the year in Jul-19. ▪ Forward multiples continue to look attractive, trading below one standard deviation from the average of the last three years. ▪ Our equity strategy continues to be focused on banks; recovery in loan growth and lower provision expenses are key themes to our thesis. ▪ Regarding flows, pension funds remain in the top spot of net buying positions YTD. Foreign investors maintain a net selling position. ▪ We reiterate that our Top Picks are Davivienda and Bancolombia. We maintain our Underweight recommendation for Peru. Risks from the external front remain, and political noise could negatively impact the expected rebound in economic activity in 2H19. • The US-China trade stand-off continues, leaving commodity prices with some downside. • Private consumption remains resilient, though it is showing signs of softening in coming months. • Political tensions escalated after President Vizcarra dissolved Congress. • From a medium-term viewpoint, we favor utilities and consumption- IMPORTANT NOTICE (US FINRA RULE 2242) This document is intended for INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS and is not subject to all of the independence and related stocks to avoid mining companies’ volatility and high beta disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do business with companies sectors. covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. • We maintain InRetail and Ferreycorp as our Top Picks, on solid Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their company fundamentals. investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 23 1to 26, Analyst Certification on Page 23. Additional disclosures on page 26. Actualizar Contents Monthly Andean Strategy Update Chile: Some green shoots during September after weak market performance 5 Top Picks 7 Colombia: We maintain our neutral stance with a positive bias; the biggest risk continues to be the global scenario 8 Top Picks 12 Peru: Political uncertainty now stem from different sources 13 Top Picks 15 Valuation Summary 16 Economic Forecasts 21 2 Actualizar LTM Andean Equities Performance (in USD) IPSA COLCAP SP BVL General Index MSCI Latam 120 110 100 90 80 70 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Source: Credicorp Capital, & Bloomberg Andean Equities Fwd P/E (12 month rolling) vs 5Y historical average P/E FWD vs Historical 3Y Average 20.0x 30.0% 18.0x 16.0x 15.7x 16.0x 20.0% 12.9x 14.0x 10.0% 12.0x 10.0x 0.0% 8.0x 6.0x -10.0% -15% 4.0x -17% -21% -20.0% 2.0x .0x -30.0% Chile Peru* Colombia *Peru: vs 2Y historical average Andean Equities Fwd EV/EBITDA (12 month rolling) vs 5Y historical average EV/EBITDA FWD vs Historical 5Y Average 9.0x 7.9x 0.0% -2.0% 8.0x 6.9x 7.0x 6.5x -4.0% 6.0x -6.0% -8.0% 5.0x -9% -10.0% 4.0x -12.0% 3.0x -15% -14.0% 2.0x -16.0% 1.0x -18% -18.0% .0x -20.0% Chile Peru Colombia Source: Credicorp Capital, & Bloomberg 3 Strategy Summary within Andean Context Long view Short view (12-to-18 months) (1-to -3 months) Chile Allocation: Overweight (+) Reacceleration of economic activity, from 2.5% 2019E GDP growth to 3.1% in The short term of the market will be highly 2020 influenced by external noise and lack of activity from (+) Turning point in earnings growth (2019E: -9%; 2020E: 12%) local and foreign investors. Therefore, we believe (+) Allocation from local investors should gradually move from fixed income to equity the main forces that have driven the weak (-) Limited downside risk considering underperformance against other EM performance are still latent. For now, our top picks (-) Tough 2H19 in terms of macro and corporate earnings are more defensive and will become more bullish (-) Timing for a rebound if uncertain and highly correlated tio US-China trade war once we see more clarity in the external landscape. (-) Strong opposition to government reforms Strategy: We continue to favor a stock picking strategy of companies with solid fundamentals, earnings momentum and/or clear catalysts. Top picks: Engie Chile, Colbun, Parque Arauco Colombia Allocation: neutral (+) Better operating/financial trends at the banking sector. The most important issues in the short term are: (+) Solid macro data that support our 3.3% GDP growth forecast. global tensions, oil prices, exchange rate (+) Stable rates & inflation performance, corporate governance issues/news, (-) Volatility across foreign markets. special operations for ISA and Éxito,3Q19 results, (-) Twin deficits. regional elections, and potential entrance of (-) Labour market. Ecocementos. Strategy: We remain neutral in Colombia. Despite our regional allocation, we maintain a neutral to positive view towards local equities amid: i) strong economic activity, ii) stable inflation and interest rates, iii) strong earnings momentum across the financial sector, and iv) attractive forward multiple valuation when compared to the history. Top picks: Davivienda and Bancolombia. Peru Allocation: Underweight (+) Private consumption still remains resilient, although it could show signs of Luz del Sur would benefit from tag along rights after softening in coming months. CTG offered USD 3.6bn to Sempra. We take (-) Political tensions reached a boiling point after President Vizcarra dissolved advantage of IFS' recent correction and increase Congress. exposure. Engie backs our defensive stance, with (-) Trade stand-off between US and China continues; there is still downside on upside potential. InRetail also offers an attractive commodity prices on lower global growth. entry level. Nexa could benefit from a recovery in (-) Valuations of non-mining companies remain lower than historical averages zinc prices, with a discount vs. global peers. Strategy: Trading ideas: We maintain our defensive stance for the short-term in light of the recent political Luz del Sur, IFS, Engie Peru, InRetail and Nexa developments. In this way, we maintained Luz del Sur and Engie in our portfolio and Resources. stay away from issuers that highly depend on non-mining private investment. Top Picks: InRetail and Ferreycorp. 4 Chile Some green shoots during September after weak market performance We still see In September, the Chilean market posted a positive return in CLP (+5.3%) and USD opportunities in the (+4.2%). After a weak performance in August (-3.4% in CLP), the market had a strong local market; rebound, outperforming developed and emerging markets. However, it is still the however, timing is underperformer of the year (excluding Argentina), which implied that a short-term uncertain. correction was possible. Moreover, it is worth noting that some specific shares drove the outperformance: i) LATAM (+33%), ii) Enel Americas (+12.9%), iii) SQM-B (+12.8%) and iv) Cencosud (+11.9%). With the exception of LATAM, which was driven by the announcement of the partnership with Delta, all other shares mentioned above had been heavily pressured during August and, to a certain extent, during the whole year. Investment flows from foreign investors were the main driver for these shares, but mostly through passive blocks. In fact, when looking at the other shares in the market, the trend in investment flow remains the same. The continuance of the global trade war has sustained an environment of volatility and uncertainty that has caused investors to be reluctant to bet on the Chilean market so far this year. Therefore, despite a good performance of the market during September and a break from a turbulent year, the main forces remain latent. However, we still believe that it is a question of timing and that opportunities in the stock market exist with shares at attractive entry points.
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