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Sterlite Technologies (STRTECH PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP Sterlite Technologies (STRTECH IN) 14 November 2018 INDIA | MIDCAP| VISIT NOTE Not Rated We recently visited Sterlite Technologies Limited’s plant, below are our key takeaways: COMPANY DATA Sterlite Technologies (STL) is one of the leading global players providing data network solutions viz optical fiber O/S SHARES (MN) : 402.2 MARKET CAP (RS BN) : 146.1 (OF), OF cables, software solutions and system integration services. STL is a fully integrated manufacturer of MARKET CAP (USD MN) : 2021.2 52 ‐ WK HI/LO (RS) : 415.0/253.3 optical fiber cables and is among a handful of players that can undertake the entire process of manufacturing TRADING VOL. 3M (000) : 75809.5 from silicon to pre‐form to fiber to cables. In addition to its product setup STL has forward integrated into PAR VALUE (RS) : 2.0 providing services to its customers like system integration and software which allow it to provide comprehensive SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % and integrated offerings to customers sharply differentiating it and thereby positioning it to capture greater PROMOTERS : 53.86 FII / FPI : 6.81 share of wallet from sharply increasing global demand for creation of next generation data networks. FI / MF : 12.69 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 26.64 STL has optical fiber manufacturing facilities located in India & China (JV), optic fiber cabling facilities in India, China (JV), Italy and Brazil (JV) and has a sales network across 5 continents globally. In 2015, with the acquisition PRICE Vs. SENSEX of EliteCore Technologies, STL added Telecom Software to its service offerings. With a strong presence internationally STL generates nearly 54% of revenues from international markets with 8 of the top 10 global telecom players its customers. STL shares a common lineage with Vedanta Resources PLC enabling strong management bandwidth and strategic support. Recently STL has also acquired Mettallurgica Bresciana SpA to extend its presence in the European market and enhance its portfolio of high value data cables. Majority of the revenues of STL are generated from the products business, nearly 76.5% of revenues are generated from the optical fiber and optical fiber cables business, while 21.3% of the revenues are derived from the services business (including software and system integration businesses) which are under 3 years old and yet Source: Phillip Capital India Research in startup mode. Customers of STL typically include the following – Global Service Providers, Global Internet Companies, Defence Services, and Citizen Networks. While in the services business the company caters to only Samarth Sanghavi (+ 9122 6655 1412) to domestic opportunities and its order books include wins from the Indian Navy, Smart Cities and is undertaking [email protected] BharatNet projects as well. Increasing internet and mobile data consumption in India has been aiding the growth of fiber and cable companies. India is a 460 million internet user market, second only to China, and this is expected to increase to Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT 635.8 million users by FY 2021 while global users are expected to grow to 8.3 billion by 2023. Global optical fiber consumption over the past 12 years has grown at 17% CAGR and now stands at 493 mn fiber kilometers. New technologies like 5G, increasing data consumption and FTTH as well as evolving design and standards for data networks are driving exponential demand for optic fiber are supportive of this increase in demand for OF cables. STL is trading at CMP of INR 363.0 based on the price on 6th November, 2018 at a PE of 43.5x based on its FY 18 earnings of INR 8.34 and at a PE of 31.8x based on its TTM earnings of INR 11.4. Industry Overview Optical fibers are a way to transmit data from one point to another at extremely fast speeds. Optical fibers can be considered as pipes that carry light, the light has the ability to transfer data from one point to another and fiber cables serve as a medium to reach the designated point. Optical fibers are manufactured from silica which is found in mines globally. This silica is then converted to glass pre‐form and that is then converted to cables. Globally, there a wide range of companies which are involved in the manufacture of Optical Fiber Cables (OFC), however, the manufacture of cables is the last step of value addition. The process of preparing the pre‐form and consequently the optical fiber is the stage at which there are few players. STL is among the few players which has its presence in this segment which lends it a considerable advantage to domestic peers. Some of the leading manufacturers of optical fiber are: • CommScope Inc • Corning Inc • Fujikara Ltd • OFS Fitel, LLC • Prysmian SpA • Sterlite Technologies Ltd • Nexans • Sumitomo Electric Owing to the large supply of silica globally, the prices of fiber and cables have also remained stable over the years. However, the technology of converting the silica to fiber is not present with all players and that has resulted in the market being dominated by few players. With the pace of digital adoption scaling new heights globally – data demand has not only been increasing with increasing data consumption from individuals but also from corporations and governments. This is being assisted by the need to digitize records, individual data and targeted delivery of benefits. Financial Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT inclusion and digital inclusion are the buzzwords today which are driving government policies and all these contribute to the demand for fiber cables which are the backbone needed for a digitally connected society. Data consumption has now become an essential need and is expected to witness exponential per capita consumption growth in times to come. This demand has also prompted a capex cycle across manufacturers of optic fiber cable manufacturers globally. Below are a few points as per a CISCO report “The Zettabyte Era” (full report can be found here https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service‐ provider/visual‐networking‐index‐vni/vni‐hyperconnectivity‐wp.html): • Annual global IP traffic will reach 3.3 ZB per year by 2021: or 278 exabytes (EB) per month. In 2016, the annual run rate for global IP traffic was 1.2 ZB per year, or 96 EB per month Source: CISCO, VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016‐21, Phillip Capital (India) Research • Global IP traffic will increase nearly threefold over the next 5 years: Overall, IP traffic will grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 24 percent from 2016 to 2021. Monthly IP traffic will reach 35 GB per capita by 2021, up from 13 GB per capita in 2016 • Broadband speeds will nearly double by 2021. By 2021, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 53 Mbps, up from 27.5 Mbps in 2016. • Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for more than 63 percent of total IP traffic by 2021: By 2021, wired devices will account for 37 percent of IP traffic, and Wi‐Fi and mobile devices will account for 63 percent of IP traffic. In 2016, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic, at 51 percent. Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT Source: CISCO, VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016‐21, Phillip Capital (India) Research • Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for more than 63 percent of total IP traffic by 2021: By 2021, wired devices will account for 37 percent of IP traffic, and Wi‐Fi and mobile devices will account for 63 percent of IP traffic. In 2016, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic, at 51 percent. Source: CISCO, VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016‐21, Phillip Capital (India) Research Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT • Capex of customers driving demand for STL’s products: STL has been witnessing increasing demand for its products with increasing capex from its customers like digital and network firms. Additionally considering the capex undertaken by telecom companies and infra build companies (like National Broadband and Defence Network) is expected to increase the demand for optic fibers manifold. Source: Company, Phillip Capital (India) Research Page | 5 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT India’s current fiberization stands at 25% in comparison to developed countries which stands at 70‐80%. With increasing fiberization and government thrust on increasing connectivity. We believe that this is expected to aid the business of Sterlite Technologies and aid as a strond demand factor. While the demand for fiber cables has increased in the domestic market, the global demand for fiber cables has also increased exponentially over the last 12 years. In CY 2005 the demand for cables stood at 75 million fiber kilometers it has grown to 493 million fiber kilometers in 2017. Source: CRU Data, Company, Phillip Capital (India) Reserach With increased technology advancement like FTTH and 5G roll out, fiberization levels will have to increase significantly in order to cater to the demand. This trend has been similar globally that has resulted in fiber cable demand increasing exponentially. While India’s demand for OFC has been miniscule in comparison to the overall cable demand, new advancements like IoT, virtual reality, video streaming, cloud‐based businesses will all require fiber cables which is expected to increase the demand for fiber cables manifold. The table below depicts how modern technologies are driving demand: Page | 6 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT Soruce: GSMA, Company, Phillip Capital (India) Research Page | 7 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT Company – Salient Points Increasing Capacity Utilization: STL has manufacturing capacities in India, China, Brazil and Italy now.
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