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Sterlite Technologies Ltd Lightning Technology Connecting Growth… Initiating Coverage INDIA Institutional Research Cables & Conductors Sterlite Technologies Ltd Lightning technology connecting growth… Initiating Coverage Analyst: Backward integration ‐ a unique advantage: Sterlite Rating Buy Kanika Bihany Dugar Technologies Ltd (STL) is the solo integrated optical fiber Target Price Rs640 [email protected] manufacturer in India. The process of converting silicon CMP* Rs360 91 22 3951 7618 into glass and further to fiber helps the company to realize Date: 8th January 2010 Upside 77% 35‐40% OPMs only from this integration; in addition to 14‐ Sensex 17615 15% OPMs from manufacturing of fiber‐optic cables from the optical fibers. Golden goose ‐ Optical fiber and fiber‐optic cables: The Key Data company is currently the 5th largest manufacturer of Bloomberg Code SOTL IN Equity optical fiber and fiber‐optic cables globally and is moving rd Reuters Code STTE.BO towards 3 largest globally with increasing its capacity to 20mn Km for optical fiber and 10mn FKm for fiber optic NSE Code STRTECH cables by FY12E. This will assist the company to capture Current Share o/s (mn) 64.6 10% global market share from the current 5%. MktCap (Rsbn/USDmn) 23.5/510 Enduring growth in conductors backed by continuing 52 Wk H/L (Rs) 383.9/44.2 investments in T&D sector: The power conductor business Daily Vol. (3m NSE Avg) 255881 segment, contributing 63% to net sales in FY09, will Face Value (Rs) 5 maintain the growth trajectory with investments of about Beta 1.44 Rs315bn in conductors segment alone in the XIth plan out 1USD/INR 45.7 of total investments of Rs4.3tn on power T&D. STL having the largest domestic market share of 25% will benefit immensely from these T&D outlay as it gears up to meet Shareholding Pattern (%) the growing demand through planned capex from current Promoters 43.5 115K MT to 200K MT by FY12E. FII 2.8 Progressing return ratios: The ROCE and ROE have Others 53.6 improved from 7.5% and 10.4% in FY07 to 17.1% and 14.2% in FY09 respectively, on the back of 38% CAGR in turnover and reducing leverage. We expect STL to record Price Performance (%) 20% CAGR in net sales over FY09‐12E, ROCE at 23.2% and 1m 6m 1yr ROE at 21.3%, with further reduction in leverage and margin improvement. SOTL 10.4 67.9 159.5 NIFTY 3.3 5.0 69.5 Valuations: We remain bullish on STL, on the backdrop of a th unique integrated optical fiber manufacturing facility and Source: Bloomberg; *As on 7 Jan. 2010 improving OPMs and returns. We also see promising demand growth emanating from the expected increasing demand in faster wireless connections and higher number of data transfer capability. We value STL at Rs640, translating into 20x FY11E EPS of Rs32. The target price provides an upside of 77% from current levels. Hence we recommend ‘Buy’ on the stock. Key Risks: Delay in expansion, slowdown in India and China, overcapacity and volatile commodity prices. Y/E Mar (Rs Mn) Net Sales YoY (%) EBITDA YoY (%) PAT YoY (%) EPS (Rs) BV (Rs) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) FY08 16,858 40.7 1,929 72.2 1,007 132.1 15.6 186.6 18.7 13.5 23.0 1.9 FY09 22,892 35.8 2,342 21.4 883 (12.2) 13.7 173.2 14.2 17.1 26.4 2.1 FY10E 26,721 16.7 3,389 44.8 1,848 109.2 28.7 199.6 23.5 21.9 12.6 1.8 FY11E 33,250 24.4 4,365 28.8 2,506 35.6 32.1 209.1 21.4 22.4 11.2 1.7 FY12E 39,617 19.1 5,249 20.3 3,116 24.4 39.9 247.8 21.3 23.2 9.0 1.5 Source: Company, Networth Research Sterlite Technology Ltd Networth Research is also available on Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters 1 Company Background Sterlite Technologies Ltd (STL) formerly known as Sterlite Optical Technologies Ltd (SOTL) was incorporated in 2000 after it was hived off from Sterlite Industries. The company initially started with optic fiber and telecom cables. Later STL entered power conductor business through the acquisition of power transmission line division from Sterlite Industries. Sterlite Technologies Ltd (STL) is a leading global provider of optical fibers, telecommunication cables and power transmission conductors. STL is the largest power conductor manufacturer in the world and the third largest fiber manufacturer globally. The company is India's only integrated optical fiber manufacturer and is among the select few globally, with about 30% domestic market share. Exhibit 1: Key Events 2000 Incorporated under the name of Sterlite Telecom Systems Ltd, after the demerger of the telecom business from Sterlite Industries; Name changed to Sterlite Optical Technologies Ltd 2005 Installed capacity of fiber optic cables increased from 14L FKm to 24L FKm 2006 Acquired power transmission line division from Sterlite Industries for a consideration of Rs1485mn; Commencement of telecom integration & managed services business 2007 Increased installed capacity for copper telecom cables from 75L CKm to 95CKm and for fiber optic cables from 24L FKm to 32.2L FKm; Change of company name to Sterlite Technologies Ltd 2009 Increased installed capacity for optical fiber to 12mn Km; fiber optic cable to 6mn FKm and conductor to 1.6L MT Key Management Personnel Name Position Profile Mr. Anil Agarwal Non‐Ex Chairman He founded the Sterlite group in 1976 and has been overseeing its operations since its inception. He is the Executive chairman of Vedanta Resources Plc, Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd, BALCO and is a director of Hindustan Zinc Ltd and Vedanta Aluminium Ltd. Mr. Anand Agarwal CEO & Wholetime He completed his BTech. in metallurgical engineering from IIT Kanpur and was awarded director Masters and PhD from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA. He has joined Sterlite in 1995 and has held various positions, including manufacturing, quality assurance and business development. Prior to joining Sterlite he worked with Siemens. Source: Company, Networth Research Sterlite Technology Ltd 2 Investment Rationale Backward integration – a unique advantage STL is uniquely positioned as one of the very few fully integrated optical fiber manufacturer in the world (6‐7 players in total) and as the only one domestically. While most global fiber manufacturers procure glass and process it into fiber, STL starts by procuring silicon directly from the mines to convert it into glass and further into fiber. The process on conversion of silicon into glass is highly automated and requires advance techniques which is possessed by very few in the world. This integration helps the company to record 35‐40% operating margins. The optical fiber segment contributed about 5% to revenues in FY09, which is expected to increase to 7.3% by FY12E. STL further enjoys operating margins of 14‐15% by converting glass to fiber optic cables. Exhibit 2: Fully integrated optical fiber manufacturing capacity – advantage margins Source: Company, Networth Research There are quite a few deterrents for other fiber optic cable manufacturer to go for backward integration. Some of them being: high end technology which is not easy to develop, high capex (about USD7/km for brown field expansion and USD12‐13/km for greenfield expansion) and high gestation period (about 7‐8 years for Greenfield project). The supply of fiber optic cables will be wholly defined by the supply of glass by the 6‐7 players in total, with STL being one of them. The other major integrated players are Corning (USA), Draka (Netherlands) and Prysmian (Italy). Exhibit 3: Global integrated fiber manufacturing players FY09 OPM (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%) Corning Inc (US) 20.2 21.0 10.4 Draka Holdings NV 3.2 15.8 10.1 (Netherlands) Prysmian SPA (Italy) 8.7 53.6 19.2 Sterlite Technologies (India) 10.2 14.2 17.1 Source: Bloomberg, Networth Research Sterlite Technology Ltd 3 Corning Inc (US) is the pioneer in silicon to glass conversion technology and is the world leader for optical fiber manufacturing. However, only 16% of Corning’s revenue (FY09) was contributed by optical fiber and cables, while 46% of revenue (FY09) was contributed by LCD production which also uses the same glass conversion technology. Draka of Netherlands and Prysmian of Italy are other optical fiber and cables players having integrated silicon‐glass‐fiber facility, with 77% and 100% revenue contribution by optical fiber and cable business segment. As per our understanding, out of the current realization of USD8/km of optical fiber, STL incurs a total cost of about USD5/km (including the raw material cost of USD2.5‐3/km). This results in OPMs of about 38%. This is against the total cost of about USD6‐6.5/km for other players like Corning, Draka and Prysmian, translating into an OPM of about 25%. STL is among the lowest cost manufacturer globally, strengthened by having the largest fiber manufacturing facility at one location and having manufacturing presence in a low cost geography (India). With H1FY10 OPMs at 18% for STL, it is evident that with the increase in contribution from optical fiber and cables segment, the company will dominate the returns globally. Also with highest margins in the industry the company stands to be least affected by any pricing pressure. Also STL is positioned strongly in growing economies of India and China with recent entry into Europe and US as against the above stated peers who are more focused in Europe and US which have seen a slowdown in recent years. Golden goose ‐ optical fiber and fiber optic cables….
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