11/16/2013

2013 LAST QUARTER TRIPLE WHAMMY: IS THERE A MESSAGE?

Graciano P. YUMUL,Jr. Monte Oro Resources & Energy, Inc. Makati City November 15, 2013

OUTLINE • Hazards, Risks & Disasters

• Changes through time

• Lessons learned

• Action plan

1 11/16/2013

OUTLINE • Hazards, Risks & Disasters

• Changes through time

• Lessons learned

• Action plan

OCTOBER 2013 TY NARI (SANTI)

2 11/16/2013

SANTI DESTRUCTIONS

sunstar.com.ph PHIL NEWS

YAHOO gmanetwork.com

OCTOBER 2013 EARTHQUAKE

PHIVOLCS 2013

msc-csem.org

3 11/16/2013

BOHOL EQ DESTRUCTIONS elysplanet.com ph.news.yahoo.com

ideadeaf.org

SINKHOLES & LANDSLIDES

wpxi.com archives.pia.gov.ph

4 11/16/2013

NOVEMBER 2013 (YOLANDA)

NOAA PROJ NOAH

REUTERS PAGASA

YOLANDA DEVASTATIONS

REUTERS, T.B. RAFOLS,

R. RUTA,, T.B. RAFOLS, ILOILO

5 11/16/2013

HIGHLIGHTS

• SANTI - Agricultural damage - Power interruptions - Transport and food chain

• NORTH BOHOL EARTHQUAKE - Sinkholes - Landslides - Blind faults

HIGHLIGHTS

• YOLANDA - Severe wind - Riverbank erosions - Storm surge

- First responder no more - Looters and food - Protocol issues

6 11/16/2013

SEMANTICS?

HAZARD RISK

airfields-freeman.com garygreene.com

CATASTROPHIC DISASTER

asisbiz.com

OUTLINE

• Hazards, Risks & Disasters

• Changes

• Lessons learned

• Action plan

7 11/16/2013

MINDANAO FLOODING

Cotabato Davao

cotabatocity.net.ph newsinfo.inquirer.ne t

Basilan CDO

rappler.com

SW MONSOON (Habagat)

GMA NEWS GMA Network

Inquirer Baltimore Sun

8 11/16/2013

WEST PHIL SEA (SO. CHINA SEA)

TS FABIAN TY PAOLO June 11-24,2013 Sept 25-Oct1,2013

TD 18W TY VINTA Sept 16-21, 3013 Oct 17-Nov5,2013

CHANGES? • hit • SW Monsoon (Habagat) factor • NE Monsoon (Amihan) component • West Philippine Sea breeding ground • Destructive “normal” weather patterns

9 11/16/2013

OUTLINE

• Hazards, Risks & Disasters

• Changes through time

• Lessons learned

• Action plan

TSUNAMI (MARINE ORIGIN)

Fukushima Aceh

fukushima.org.ua huffingtonpost.com

10 11/16/2013

SEICHE (LAKES) & SWELL (FAR-FIELD)

STORM SURGE (NEAR-FIELD CYCLONE)

Albay, Ty Yolanda

inquirer.net

11 11/16/2013

LAYMANIZING CONTEXT?

• Mass wasting vis-a-vis landslides • Storm surges vis-a-vis tidal waves • Depressions, storms, typhoons & bagyo • Low pressure areas & cyclones • Earthlings, Asians, Filipinos & Tagalogs

VALID OBSERVATION? • BER months? – September : Ondoy (2009); Pedring (2011) – October : Pepeng (2009); Juan (2010) – November : Yolanda (2013) – December : Santi (2011); Pablo (2012)

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LESSONS LEARNED?

• Poverty: A reality – Living dangerously – Fatalistic (“Bahala na” attitude)

• Cultural: “This is mine”

• Socio-political: No to changes

• Economic: Fear of loss

REALIZATIONS?

• First responders can be victims

• Evacuation centers can be graveyards

• Design/ construction + site selection critical

• Past can only guide; uncertainty is certain

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION & MANAGEMENT... MUST BE A WAY OF LIFE!

13 11/16/2013

OUTLINE

• Hazards, Risks & Disasters

• Changes through time

• Lessons learned

• Action plan

CHALLENGES

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HOW CAN ONE ADAPT?

• Adult education

• School curriculum

• Right communication

• Local knowledge

• Factor uncertainties

QUESTION

If blind faults are all over the country, where is it safe to put up a house?

Go local, know the place!

15 11/16/2013

QUESTION

Could Tacloban prepare adequately for the hazards posed by Yolanda?

No, since it was not just a technical issue. We are being too hard on ourselves.

QUESTION If the National Government used the term “tidal wave”, could it have saved peoples’ lives?

Maybe yes, may be no but more on the NO. The presence of “a clear and present danger” was made known!

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QUESTION

Is the really prepared for hazards and disasters?

Yes. But at the end of the day, saving one’s life is a personal choice and decision.

Thank You!

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