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Snapchat (Short) Snapchat IAG Battle Pitch | Short Jaro van Diepen Mateo Panjol-Tuflija Michael Giese Oliver Jiang Sruthi Boddu 1 Battle Pitch Short Thesis Team Mateo Panjol-Tuflija Michael Giese Portfolio Manager Sruthi Boddu Senior Analyst VP; Senior Analyst Oliver Jiang Jaro van Diepen Senior Analyst Junior Analyst 2 Battle Pitch Agenda 1 Industry Dynamics 2 Investment Theses 3 Catalyst 4 Valuation 3 Battle Pitch Executive Summary: Time to Take Off the Spectacles… The Misunderstanding: Takeaway: The over extrapolation of recent Nothing has fundamentally user growth performance has changed to warrant a 90% masked the structurally YTD price increase and indefensible business model and rationalization unfavourable headwinds 4 Battle Pitch Investment Thesis I: DAU Saturation Reached 5 Battle Pitch Thesis I: Why Does Growth Matter? The Tug o’ War Revenues = DAU x ARPU DAU ARPU Flat-lining Growth in Daily Active ... So, Can Snapchat Grow ARPU? Users... 2.50 200 2.00 180 1.50 160 1.00 140 120 0.50 100 0.00 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 6 Battle Pitch Thesis I: A Relationship Most Kind: The Market and DAU SNAP Volatility 29% Long term the market correlates with the DAU reports 27% 25% ARPU DAU Price at Earnings Lowest Volatility Lowest Delta 23% ARPU 1 21% DAU 0.67 1 19% Price at Earnings -0.82 -0.67 1 Correlate the price when volatility bottoms out, Lowest Volatility -0.63 -0.72 0.827 1 17% or reaches average levels, to view core values Lowest Delta -0.47 -0.30 0.617 0.83 1 15% Turns out the market really appreciates DAU Acceleration However, something is off! ∂2 ARPU ∂2 DAU Price at Earnings Lowest Volatility Lowest Delta ARPU 1 DAU 0.64 1 Price at Earnings -0.32 0.21 1 Lowest Volatility 0.30 0.50 0.83 1 Lowest Delta 0.33 0.70 0.61 0.83 1 7 Battle Pitch Thesis I: Reaching “Valuable” User Saturation Not much room left for user growth 92% of US 12-17 94% of US 18-24 27% of US adults use year-olds use year-olds use Snapchat Snapchat Snapchat Snapchat has already penetrated at least 90% of its target market. 8 Battle Pitch Thesis I: Not all users are created equal DAU ≠ Dedicated Users 9 Battle Pitch Thesis I: User retention isn’t correlated with higher ARPU Daily active users are not necessarily revenue-generating users People are posting more Instagram stories than …which means the number of people watching Snapchat stories… Snapchat stories is leveling off. Number of stories are different Daily Active Users, 2014-19 Instagram Stories Snapchat Instagram Snapchat 160 600 140 500 500 120 400 100 80 300 190 60 200 DAU, MillionsDAU, 40 100 20 Total number of stories per day of Total stories number 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 # of days Nov-14 10 Battle Pitch Thesis I: Network effects compound this trend People will continue to switch to Instagram as their friends leave Snapchat 11 Battle Pitch Thesis I: Network effects exacerbate the problem More people post Less opportunities Discover less stories on for ad-clicks on lucrative Instagram Snapchat As dedicated users churn, Snapchat loses important revenue opportunities 12 Battle Pitch Thesis I: Instagram is a better alternative It is more expensive to advertise on Snapchat than on Instagram despite Instagram’s better platform. Advertising Discoverability • It is cheaper to advertise on Instagram than on Instagram gives a business a public profile, and Snapchat because the nature of Instagram is more public • Instagram ads also have higher overall than Snapchat, so it offers a more seamless in-app viewership and a higher conversion rate shopping experience. The act of online shopping • Instagram offers better analytics and targeting fits better with Instagram, where people try to be than Snapchat does the best version of themselves, than Snapchat. Stories adoption and posts during NYFW Latest DAU count N = 54 Brands tracked, 1377 posts Number of Posts Snapchat Instagram Brand Adoption 500 80% 1400 70% 1200 60% 1000 50% 800 40% 600 187 30% 20% 400 10% 200 0% 0 Fall 2016 Spring 2017 Fall 2016 Spring 2017 Snapchat Instagram Instagram Snapchat Instagram Snapchat 13 Battle Pitch Thesis I: What Happens Now? As user growth stalls, corporate advertisers will cut ties Using MySpace as a case study, as users stop visiting Snapchat as often, these corporations Snapchat’s biggest advertisers are large will cut ties with Snapchat. corporations. MySpace: Declining unique visitors translate to lower Ad-spend US Adspend Non-US Adspend Unique Visitors 700 90 80 600 70 500 60 ,millions $ 400 50 spend - 300 40 Ad 30 200 Annual 20 Monthly Monthly unique visitors, millions 100 10 0 0 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 14 Battle Pitch Investment Thesis II: Unfavourable Business Model 15 Battle Pitch Thesis II: Unfavourable Business Model – Cost Structure Limited opportunity to improve margins by cutting costs Cost of Revenue Research and Development Tied down to Google and Amazon through 2022 • Signed Pre-IPO commitments with both Amazon and Google to host - Tech Crunch, 2017 its platform • Contracts include minimum purchase • Snapchat is essentially a free R&D pipeline for Instagram • Snap is guaranteed to pay 85% of the contract, even if data goes • Must maintain its R&D expenditure to retain users • Costs have a hit a minimum: unused cv • No evident relationship between DAU and infrastructure costs: Cost as % of Revenue cv 120% 100% 10% 80% 60% 5% Q/Q 40% 20% 0% Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Change -5% COGS R&D S&M G&A % -10% 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 Takeaway: SNAP can only improve bottom line by Infrastructure Cost Daily Active Users increasing top line but valuable DAU have reached saturation… 16 Battle Pitch Thesis II: Unfavourable Business Model – Indefensibility Nothing proprietary about SNAPs business model makes it highly replicable Competitive Landscape Snow = Korean SNAP Tier 1 • Korean technology company Naver launched “Snow” • Spun off in 2016 • More than 100mm downloads in two years • Backed by Softbank and Sequoia China • Limits SNAPs growth ambitions in Asia Tier 2 • 40-50mm DAUs cv Tier 3 17 Battle Pitch Investment Thesis III: Priced In M&A is Unfeasible 18 Battle Pitch Thesis III: Priced In M&A Is Unfeasible Market is pricing in potential M&A but this is unlikely occur 19 Battle Pitch Thesis III: Priced In M&A Is Unfeasible cont. Market is pricing in potential M&A but this is unlikely occur Arguments For: 1. Gives Amazon access to a younger demographic 2. Only dilutes AMZN stock by 1.5% cv 3. Leverage information to increase SNAPs ARPU 4. Cost synergies Arguments Against: 1. Must pay at $l43-341 per “valuable” customer 2. Customer base consists of young demographic with limited disposable income 3. At an ARPU of $1.68, AMZN can access users cheaper cv through a partnership 4. Avoid SNAP’s operational risk Takeaway: Initially seems compelling but the numbers reveal a different story 20 Battle Pitch Investment Thesis IV: Unreliable Corporate Governance 21 Battle Pitch Thesis IV: Unreliable Corporate Governance Suffers from founder syndrome; equity stake significantly exposed to the whims of the founders Voting Issues Short to Zero Channel Check Evan Spiegel and Robert “It’s really hard to kill Murphy, own or control a company,” the voting shares that former employee said Evan Spiegel represent approximately to me. “But, anything Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder 97% of the voting power is possible when it of outstanding capital comes to Evan stock. Spiegel.” Even if the fundamental business is sound, other extraneous Robert Murphy variables point to a compelling short. Chief Technology Officer, Co-Founder 22 Battle Pitch Catalyst? Annualized cost to short SNAP has dropped from ~75% to less than 3% YTD SNAP Short Interest and Days to Cover 12% 12 11% 10 10% 8 Shorting Fee: Rebate: 9% 6 0.5% 1.9% 8% 4 7% 2 6% 0 Days To Cover Short Interest Timing is attractive relative to two years ago which decreases the need for an immediate catalyst 23 Battle Pitch Valuation: Baked in to current price From current share price of $10.49, back out assumptions that market has baked in. cv Are these numbers realistic? 2-YR ARPU Growth: 38% Increased costs: 7% • EV/Sales: 10.0x Cost of Revenue SG&A R&D • WACC: 10% US & Int’l • No Cap Raises 868 868 Canada +68.0% 864 865 864 • No UI Redesign +30.3% EU 847 +42.7% 815 Holding DAU constant $10.49 799 Total ARPU 772 $7.56 $8.69 $6.30 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 24 Battle Pitch Valuation +78.5% With a $14-15 PT (and 11.6x EV/Sales), here’s what the bulls are expecting: +35.9% +150% SNAP Inc.
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