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The Military Balance in the Middle East: an Executive Summary Anthony H The Military Balance in the Middle East: An Executive Summary Anthony H. Cordesman Policy Paper # 49 March 1999 The author and IGCC are grateful to the United States Department of Energy and the United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency for generous support of this project. Author's opinions are his own. ISSN 1088 2081 ISBN 0-934367-65-2 Copyright © 1999 by the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation CONTENTS × Tables and Figures................................................................................................................v Preface..................................................................................................................................1 The Military Balance in the Middle East: An Executive Summary ......................................3 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................3 Sources of Data...............................................................................................................4 Methodology ...................................................................................................................4 Counting Forces for Analysis...........................................................................................6 Counting Forces for Arms Control and War Fighting Purposes........................................7 Comments and Suggestions..............................................................................................7 What Is the Middle East Military Balance? ......................................................................7 Defining the Middle East Military Balance.......................................................................7 The Qualitative Paradigm Shift in the Middle East Military Balance................................7 Arms Control Issues Affecting the Middle East Military Balance.......................................8 Regional Trends in Military Effort: “The Most Militarized Area in the World”..................8 The Global Context: Military Efforts ................................................................................8 NORTH AFRICA: NATIONAL POWERS WITHOUT CLEAR EXTERNAL THREATS..................................13 Military Forces in Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia............................13 The Modernization Problem in Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia............................13 THE ARAB-ISRAELI BALANCE .................................................................................................23 Arab-Israeli Military Spending ......................................................................................23 Arab-Israeli Arms Transfers ...........................................................................................23 Total Arab-Israeli Forces...............................................................................................29 Arab-Israeli Manpower..................................................................................................32 Arab-Israeli Land Forces...............................................................................................32 Arab-Israeli Air and Air Defense Forces ........................................................................40 Arab-Israeli Naval Forces..............................................................................................40 Qualitative Advantages of Exploiting Advanced Technology, Joint Warfare, Advanced Training Systems, C4I/Battle Management, and the “Revolution in Military Affairs”.....................................................................................47 Political/Strategic Advantages in Reinforcing Israeli “Edge” ........................................47 Political/Strategic Weaknesses in Arab Military Forces ..................................................47 Qualitative Weaknesses in Arab Military Forces.............................................................47 THE CHANGING TRENDS IN THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE .........................................................54 Trends in the Gulf Military Balance—An Overview.........................................................54 Sources of Instability in the Gulf....................................................................................54 Qualitative Weaknesses in Gulf Military Forces..............................................................55 The Potential Qualitative Advantages of the “Revolution in Military Affairs”.................55 The Potential Weaknesses in Western Power Projection Forces ......................................56 Key Iranian Equipment Developments ...........................................................................74 Iraq—An Overview ........................................................................................................79 Iraqi Dependence on Decaying, Obsolete, or Obsolescent Major Weapons....................81 The Problem of Iraqi Military Production......................................................................83 The Problem of Iraqi Wartime Losses.............................................................................83 The Southern Gulf Military Balance...............................................................................83 Key Mission-Related Force Improvement Priorities ........................................................84 Procurement..................................................................................................................84 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ...........................................................................................85 Reasons for Proliferation and War Fighting Options .....................................................85 Reasons for Proliferation...............................................................................................85 War Fighting Options....................................................................................................86 Strategy, Tactics, and Operations ..................................................................................86 Major Uncertainties.......................................................................................................86 One-Half Cheer for Arms Control...................................................................................87 Proliferation is Already Here: Middle Eastern Case Studies in Creeping Proliferation....88 The Search for Weapons of Mass Destruction by Middle Eastern Country ......................89 Algeria ....................................................................................................................89 Libya.......................................................................................................................90 Egypt ......................................................................................................................91 Israel .......................................................................................................................92 Syria........................................................................................................................96 Iran .........................................................................................................................98 Iraq .......................................................................................................................108 The Sudan.............................................................................................................115 Iraqi Covert Break-Out Capabilities.............................................................................116 Counter-Proliferation ..................................................................................................117 Possible Counter-Proliferation Policies........................................................................117 Key Force Improvements Affecting Counter-Proliferation Policy..................................117 THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE ON GLOBAL CONFLICT AND COOPERATION...............................................................................................................119 ELECTRONIC PUBLISHING AT IGCC........................................................................................120 CURRENT PUBLICATIONS ......................................................................................................121 TABLES AND FIGURES × FIGURE 1. The trend in Middle Eastern military expenditures and arms transfers since the October War, 1967–1995....................................................................................9 FIGURE 2. Military expenditures and arms imports as an economic burden in the Middle East relative to other regions..................................................................10 FIGURE 3. The declining trend in Middle Eastern military expenditures and arms transfers, 1967–1995........................................................................................................11 FIGURE 4. Arms agreements and deliveries to the developing world versus total sales to the Middle East, 1987–1997 ...................................................................................12 FIGURE 5. Algerian, Libyan, Moroccan,and Tunisian Spending.........................................16 FIGURE 6. Arms deliveries are declining and are a minor portion of the total world market, 1984–1996........................................................................................................16
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