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CEU eTD Collection T T HE HE In partialIn fulfillment ofthe requirements for the degree Masterof Arts of C W ASE EAK EAK Department ofInternational Relations and European E S TUDY OF OF TUDY NERGY NERGY B ALANCING IN THE Supervisor: Andreas Goldthau Central European University R G Word Count: 13,9 ELATIONSHIP TO TO ELATIONSHIP Budapest, Hungary Krisztina Kotka ERMANY AND ERMANY E Submitted to , NERGY NERGY

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International Germany, the ns CEU eTD Collection you. for is this Pali, entire family who selflesslyalong journey. helped this me appreciationIRES goes faculty totheentire de ofthe well as Bellershisprecious Robin for insights throughoutthe thesis Iwould like tothank Professorfor Andreaswrite as thesis, hisinvaluable Goldthau this help to A

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- writing period. Mywriting period. CEU eTD Collection BIBLIOGRAPHY CONCLUSION INTERPRETATIONS AND 5.ANALYSIS CHAPTER 4.THECHAPTER STUDY CASE OF POLAND 3.THECHAPTER STUDY CASE GERMANY OF 2.ENERGYCHAPTER SECURITYIN CONTEXTTHE EUROPEAN 1.THEORETICALCHAPTER FRAMEWORK INTRODUCTION Contents ofTable

5.2. Applying tothe Case theTheory 5.1 4.3. Comparison German of Industries andEnergy Polish 4.2. The Polish Energy4.1. Polish Statistics 3.2. The German 3.1. German Energy Statistics 2.2. Russia 2. 1.3. Balance Theory ofPower 1.2. Energy Secu IR1.1. Theories ofNational Security 1. The Energy European Unified Market . Applying tothe Case theTheory 1.3.1. BalancingBandwagoningandBehavior 4.1.5. Polish Renewable4.1.5. Polish Energy Sources 4.1.4. NuclearPoland Power in Coal4.1.3. TheSector Polish Natural4.1.2. The Polish Gas Sector Sector Oil 4.1.1. The Polish 3.2.2. Future Energy Prospects 3.2.1. German 3.1.5. German Energy Renewable Sources 3.1.4. The German Nuclear Energy Sector 3.1.3. The German Coal Sector 3.1.2. The G 3.1.1. The German OilSector Lack2.1.2. a u of 2.1.1. EU EnergyIndustry Regulations 1.3.2. BalancingBandwagoningand –

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ibid

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ibid ibid ibid ibid Kenneth Waltz, . 16 , 118.

Applyingexternal method of“aligning” the asWaltz requiresbut, three at least participants, According founder anda of Waltz, toKenneth prominent neorealism balance

in assumptions must beestablished the must theory is about firstThe assumption in assumptions itself. 17

one another, is that these states coexist inaselfcoexist another,isthatthese statesone

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ibid Stephen M.Walt, Kenneth Waltz,

Waltz also clarifiesWaltz the essence ofthe self Herecome powerrather inthetwoultimate waysrea in“check” a or tokeep dominant to

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Alliances: Balancing and 11

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ibid Stephen M.Walt, idem p111 ibid ibid 23

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The Origins of Alliances of The Origins

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state intends toform alliances.state intends -

Alliances: Balancing and 12 rsity 1967),110 Press, d on the theoreticald onthe general literature. The idea,

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idem p18 ibid ibid idem p6 “Oil andGas Security

Oil is the most significant themost energyOil is importancehas source inGermany, its though been Naturalgas similarlyconsumption, hasbeen consumption, tooil gas onthedecline as well; -

border pipelines deliver oil from Western EuropeItaly, deliver pipelines France, oilfromborder and Western (from the

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THE CASE STUDY OFGERMANY STUDY CASE THE 63 62

Oil comesmain Germany: intwo channels to and seaports. pipelines The

and thesource importisfairlyand wellThe diversified. of countries ofthe -

Germany,” InternationalGermany,” Energy accessed Agency, April 2012,p3, 1,

60 freepublications/publication/GermanyOSS.pdf

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CEU eTD Collection 2014,http://www.energydelta.org/mainmenu/energy 67 66 65 regulation gave way initiative tohydraulic fracturing, that drilling withthe stipulation in drinking yearfracking reservesconventional 1960s, last inGermany has practiced onbeen the a since draft develop ofenergy,especially domestic sources a has been inGermany. issue TheMerkel a controversial government highly to hasbeenkeen under pricing creating thus mechanisms, a mo requirements, thenumber reduced ofandthe two,and marketsto improved bothcompetition deliveringentrygas system tootheran createdand markets.Berlin gas exit for with EU inline European h countrya transit Union,theisalsobecoming directlyfrom 55bcm. toGermany withacapacity Russia of border which Stream pipelines, deliversgas theNord including underneath pipeline, SeaBaltic the Wilhelmshafen, ontheNorth Sea. have new onthe Rostock, Sea, regasificationBaltic made three been in and terminals for with 3 gasthree mainnatural were providers delivering Russia, followedall import, % by ofNorway 39 has beenbe steadilyIn fulfilledresources. declining), from 86% the imported must other 2010the todecreaseconsumption on longenergy term dueto efficiency measures. sharegas toincrease TPES they ofnaturaltime, mediumrun;atthesame expect inthe gas onthe 2014,http://www.iea.org/publications/fr 69 68 profile

“Oil andGas Security “The Stream, Pipeline,” Nord Apr accessed 3,2014, “EnergyInstitute Delta idem p19 ibid

5 % and the Netherlands 22%. with - Gas issignificant;Germany import germany#t42794 The production of unconventionalgasby fracturing hydraulic

- Germany,” InternationalGermany,” Energy accessed Agency, April 2012,p19, 2,

EnergyBusiness School

Currentlygas allcomes German imported through re market. liquid eepublications/publication/GermanyOSS.pdf 66

produces about 14%of allabout necessarygas (whichproduces rate

GermanyLNGany terminals plans does own but not 24 fter it decided to phase out nuclear decided it fter power.While out tophase

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- ibid Christopher Helman, “China Stefan NicolaTino Andresen,“Germany and Fracking to Allow Agrees for OnRegulation Shale Stefan Nicola,Allow Fracking to “GermanyAgrees Gas,” for OnRegulation Shale Stefan NicolaTino Andresen,“Germany andFracking toAllow Agrees for OnRegulation Shale World Association Coal - - germany 26/germany 26/germany r protection areas would beprohibited.r protectionareas would Bloomberg Bloomberg public and governmentthatshale theopposition boththe gassistance might fracking of mean

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/05/21/china Germany was one of the world’sGermany topten coal one was ofthe - a - eur - for

Forbes o - - - - fracking now agrees agrees , Feb 2013,1,accessed Apr, 26, 13, Feb 2013,1,accessed 2014, Apr, 26, 13, - , 5/21/2014, 1,accessed, 5/21/2014, 22, May backed 74

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- should - fracking 73 - , , - - - CEU eTD Collection 78 April 10,2014,http://www.thelocal.de/201309 77 00144feabdc0.html#axzz33Dq30oms 2014, 1,accessed 2014, April 18, 76 cancelled recognized by Merkel who thata tooearlyphase their influenceParliament. With law exit thenuclear was instituted. 1998 when theGreen Party, government, ofwas aselected the thenewlycoalition voted part into total ofseventeenreact German3.1.4. The Nuclear Energy Sector and Germans’ dissatisfaction. nuclearproduc powerwith coal challenge and imports replace toreducesoon tobalancedesire fuel fossil its the take isreadily advantagecoal, ofavailablehuge which Therefore in Berlin has quantities. a serious public. been “sacrificed” tolarge dependence on Germany ofenergy a balanced have more could mix reduce sources, which inturn country’s the Thevery dilemma is withcoal tothatgas; similar ofshale production availabilitycould its help percenta consideringworldgases Germany’s leadinggreenhouse effortsreduceand to toincrease the production reached fromcoal since highest brown1990;acontroversial its level statistical data, 2014,http://k1project.org/germany 79 2014,http://www.world

“Germany: To Phase Out or Not to Phase Out?,” “Germany: orNot Phase to K1 Criticality Out?,” Out ToPhase Project, access “Nuclear Power Nuclear April, 2014,accessed Organization, inGermany,”World 22, April Into“German Village MineTurns Town,” Ghost Coal Stefan Wagstyl, CoalLevel Use “German at Highest Since 1990,” 77 Inearlyenergy 2011nuclear ofelectricity, about Germany’s provided aquarter total from a gegeneration.greenenergy ofsources inpower

However, if Berlin wantsHowever, if thecountry Berlin tostaycompetitive at wor

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ors. - nuclear.org/info/country - scalecoal also well production,withthe doessit general which not 78

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- was then 807e - CEU eTD Collection 82 (November 1. 2012): 81 80 wentapproximately it 25% upto by 2012. 3% in1990, renewable thepercentage While renewables energy was sources. of inelectricityproduction 3.1.5. German Energy Renewable Sources energy toEuropemakes provider nuclearphase Lastdependence conditions. notleast, increasing onweather but Russia’s “muscle yearstwo time renewableAt thesame ago. energy sources are not100%reliabledue to increasingthe highly of polluting production nowseemsattractive coal, more alittle than option policy possible. been wouldnothave becomeeconomic development theday, of motor carrying nuclear one through the phase out,without it FreieBerlinpoints the vibrantUniversitätenergy renewable sector thathoped is to directorEnvironmental of Policy the Research Centre complete theremaining the ofall by closure reactors 2022. plants Berlin tooverturn decided again decision once its and accelerate the phase and public tsunami, pressure rosenuclear the country significantly power. todivert away from catastrophegrave in2011,the damage nuclear powerplant inJap greenhouse targets,emission besidesother consequences. 84 (November 1. 2012): 83 2014,http://k1project.org/germany

ibid Miranda ofPhase A.Schreurs,“The Politics “Germany: orNot Phase to K1 Cri Out?,” Out ToPhase Miranda ofPhase A.Schreurs,“The Politics ibid 81

Germany hasa made huge Currentlychallen the . Eight ofthe out s

eventeen working reactors wereeventeenreactors with plans workingto downimmediately, shut ges are powerfollowing:ges light the isclean, nuclear which,ofthe in

- leap in the past couple of decadesleap inthetermsof past developing couple its to 83 - phase

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- - Out”, Out”, - - 27 out adecision torethink intheout Bundestag. or -

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Bulletin ofthe AtomicBulletin Scientists ofthe AtomicBulletin Scientists

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the CEU eTD Collection 87 2014,http://energytransition.de/ 86 _106644.html 2012,http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2012/07/30/germany_26_of_electricity_renewable 85 government take consideration. must into pricesaverage Europe. thanthe in re longandMoreover, distances, energygenerationlargely conditions. is onthe weather dependent Nevertheless, challenges. power windandsolar hasmajor be still cannot stored They ordelivered does haveGerman it not sothat economy of the German economy. the past decade orso,making therenewable energy the growingindustry onefastest of segments many small technology,and riskof reduce asmaintargets. nuclear power” its the ini Energiewende, Transition, theflagship country’s orEnergy renewable energy program. The andrenewables. 4% other energygen 50 2014, accessed Apr 88 (November 1. 2012):

newable energymore costsGermany are which expensive, for causes 50% energy its topay “German50%Energy Higher February EuAverage: Than Prices EurActiv, 07, Mckinsey,” Miranda ofPhase A.Schreurs,“The Politics “Energy Transition “Germany: ofElectricity 26% - tiative has multiple purposes.tiative has multiple Itclimate “fightchange, plans to reduce energy stimulate imports, higher - eu eration waseration thefollowing:15 wind, 22% biomass,hydropower, 21%solar, 36% -

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Clean energy reduce andemissions sources help help diversify CO2 the

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These important challengesthe German are still that

to rely on traditional imported energyto rely on sources as heavily.

- Out”, 28

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68, no.6 2, - prices - CEU eTD Collection 91 crisis 90 interest.com/articles/2012/11/13/germany Novemberaccessed April 29,2014, 2012,1, 89 subsidy, each 51 % ofthe twoGermanenergy pipeline,and companies, thelatter E.ON BASF a and Wintershall, a strategic forThe state politicalRussian bothGermany and move Russia. gasdays off he pipeline left projectjust before level by and personal friends becoming launching withPutin multi the who suggested Pipelines” the heads “Gasdeal for ofstate that both enthus economic relations. slogan, as b economic undertone.“Wander “Change is, durch Handel,” that Trade,” throughwas thenew applied Unionas to the Soviet appeasement well. Bythis the1970shad approach a strong regimes change curse eventua East and WestGermany. ofpolitical attitude normalizethe engagement to than rather confrontation, relationship between Chancellor Willy adviser Brandt’s came upwiththe id foundation of Germany's(Eastern West Egon Ostpolitik Bahr, wasestablished. famous Policy) The 3.2. German University1. p157 2008), Press, 92 interest.com/articles/2012/11/13/germany Novemberaccessed April 29,2014, 2012,1,

Marshall I.Marshall Goldman, Kramer,David J. and “Germany Russia: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21599410 Kramer,David ofOstpolitik?,” J. and “Germany The Russia: End - throwback German German to Russia Schröder Gerhardt with Chancellor a relationship tookthis whole new oth the Bundestag and the Kremlin saw advantagesBundestagand instrengthening saw oth theKremlin countries’ thetwo own 24.5 - Russian energyrelations goRussian all theway when tothe back 1960sand the ‘70s, - worse - Russian Energy Rel Energy Russian 90

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CEU eTD Collection BestBarackInauguration.Obama Speeches of Is through2009 his “Energy SecurityNational Author/Editor, Author/Editor, AN=87041183 f5bfe1f9d44c%40sessionmgr4002&hid=4208&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWRzLWxpdmU%3d#db=bth& 2014. Author/Editor, AFP “Nord'a of Waste StreamJanuary Money', Says Poland.” May 11,2010.Accessed 1, BIBLIOGRAPHY

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