INDEPENDENT INTELLIGENCE FOR THE GLOBAL BUNKER INDUSTRY
www.bunkerspot.com Volume 7 Number 1 February / March 2010
Inside: • Mergers and Acquisitions • Spotting Opportunities CHANGING TACK: • Bunker Books The race to • Pricing Strategies • People and Places zero emissions • News and Events Contents
NEWS Bunker Overview 4 Europe 8
Head Office: Asia Pacific 14 Petrospot Limited Americas 18 Petrospot House Somerville Court Africa and Mideast 22 Trinity Way Adderbury Oxfordshire OX17 3SN COMMERCIAL ISSUES England Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Lesley Bankes-Hughes looks at recent deals in the bunker sector – and asks what is Fax: +44 1295 81 44 66 driving M&A activity in these straitened times 24 Email: [email protected] Website: www.cargosecurityinternational.com For the international bunker market, writes Adrian Tolson of Chemoil, 2010 means Director - Publishing / Editor fewer contracted and more spot transactions, reduced credit lines, more insurance and Ian Taylor an increasingly fragmented customer base. Welcome to the new world order 28 Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Mob: +44 7876 70 45 41 Email: [email protected] BUNKERSPOT WORLD MAP Managing Director / Publisher Global prices and news at a glance 30 Llewellyn Bankes-Hughes Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Mob: +44 7768 57 44 30 RISK MANAGEMENT Email: [email protected] Henrik Zederkof of Dan-Bunkering expects to see a growing interest in bunker risk Associate Editor management 32 Lesley Bankes-Hughes Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Chris Thorpe of HCEnergy gives an update on price protection strategies 34 Mob: +44 7815 57 86 43 Email: [email protected] ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Advertising Sales Executive Steve Simpson Bill Hemmings of T&E considers how the recent Copenhagen Climate Conference Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 will affect the bunker industry 36 Mob: +44 7800 75 52 78 Email: [email protected] Susann Dutt, Environmental Controller at the Port of Gothenburg, reveals the results Director - Events of a survey on the adoption of cold ironing undertaken as part of the World Ports Luci Llewellyn-Jones Climate Initiative 40 Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Mobile: +44 7775 92 42 24 Diane Gilpin of B9 Shipping outlines the company’s plans to develop a cargo vessel Email: [email protected] which uses carbon-neutral propulsion technologies 42 Events Executive Why is the shipping industry hanging on the outcome of COP15 and developments Sinead Harvey Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 at the IMO when it already knows what it can do to address climate change, asks Email: [email protected] environmental charity Greenwave 44 Design & Marketing Manager Alison Jane Cutler TECHNICAL ISSUES Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Email: [email protected] Jon Watson of Razaghi Meyer International argues that bunker suppliers should look Design & Marketing Executive at the benefits of inline sensors 48 Simon Demaine Andrew McEwen of Guardian Marine Testing comments on the continuing debate Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Email: [email protected] about the proposed changes to ISO 8217 50 Sales Manager Luke Hallam Evans SPOTLIGHT ON HAITI RELIEF EFFORT Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Mob: +44 7815 86 73 52 Multi Service reports on the work going on behind the scenes to fuel the ships Email: [email protected] bringing aid to Haiti 52 Events Sales Executive Osei Mitchell EDUCATION AND TRAINING Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Mob: +44 7789 20 20 10 Llewellyn Bankes-Hughes looks at some of the books now available to newcomers to Email: [email protected] the bunker industry 54 Events & Subscriptions Sales Executive Elena Melis EVENTS Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 Mob: +44 7975 89 52 03 Events and training course diary 56 Email: [email protected] Asia Representative NETWORKING Sarah Morris Tel: +65 8168 6976 Bunker people on the move 58 Email: [email protected] Accounts Bunkerspot is an integrated news and intelligence service for the international bunker industry. The bi-monthly magazine and 24/7 electronic news Helen Wilkins service, www.bunkerspot.com, both provide highly-specific information on all aspects of the marine fuels industry. Bunkerspot Magazine (published Tel: +44 1295 81 44 55 in February, April, June, August, October and December) annual subscription rate, including unlimited access to the website www.bunkerspot.com, is Email: [email protected] UK£250/€280/US$400. ISSN 1741-6981. Copyright Petrospot Limited © 2010. All rights reserved. Published by Petrospot Limited, a dynamic independent publishing, training and events organisation, focused on providing information resources for the transportation, energy and maritime industries. Cover Photo: Courtesy of B9 Shipping Disclaimer: Bunkerspot is an editorially independent magazine and electronic news information service. The information contained in the magazine and website is presented in good faith. Opinions expressed are not necessarily those of Petrospot Limited, which does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in Bunkerspot. Nor does Petrospot accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences.
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bunkerspot February / March 2010 www.bunkerspot.com 3 Bunker Overview
12 month rolling price charts
380 CST Fuel Oil
600 Houston 380
Singapore 380 500 Fujairah 380
400 Rotterdam 380 PRICE $/tonne
300
200 FMAMJJASONDJ
Marine Diesel Oil 800 Houston MDO
700 Singapore MDO
Fujairah MDO 600 Rotterdam MDO
500 PRICE $/tonne
400
300 FMAMJJASONDJ
A time for grand alliances and new beginnings?
Crude oil prices mounted a modest rally as global demand for crude oil fell by 1.4 million another four years before there will be a need this issue of Bunkerspot went to press, with barrels a day (b/d) in 2009 – but it has forecast to revise this policy. The timing could prove Brent futures trading at around $73 a barrel. that demand will rise again during 2010 by crucial. The Royal Bank of Scotland has Bunker prices were looking relatively firm, with about 800,000 b/d. As has been the case for speculated that a revival in Iraq’s production the delivered 380 centistoke (cst) fuel oil in some years now, the continuing expansion of capability could upset the balance of global Rotterdam pegged at around $435 a tonne. the Chinese economy will be a key factor. supply and drive Brent crude oil prices down to In the immediate term, market observers The International Energy Agency (IEA) below $60 a barrel. However, it will be several commented, prices were likely to be relatively has also been predicting an upswing, but with years before Iraqi output ramps up significantly stable. But there was no clear consensus on caveats: ‘There is a possibility that demand for – and if Iraq is back in the OPEC quota system the outlook for the rest of 2010 and beyond. oil will rise by about 1.4 million b/d in 2010, by then, its impact on global supply will be Participating at a London conference at if the recovery of the global economic growth more contained. the start of February, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, continues. Non-OPEC output may be able to So much for future speculation. For the Secretary General of the Organization of the cover this increase in demand, which means moment, the oil sector is looking relatively Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), that OPEC’s production rate will be the crucial stable and there is a fair amount of market spoke with guarded optimism of a ‘demand factor in achieving balance in the markets.’ confidence. Business consultants Ernst & recovery’, while warning that there were still a ‘Non-OPEC output’ currently includes Young believe that this translates into a high number of ‘uncertainties’. Iraqi exports. Even though Iraq was one ‘positive outlook’ for mergers and acquisitions In its official outlook report, OPEC of the organisation’s founder members, its (M&A) and initial public offerings (IPOs) in the estimated that the world economy will grow by production has been excluded from OPEC oil and gas sector. According to Ernst & Young, 1.3% in 2010 and it anticipated that this could quota agreements since 1998 and the M&A activity in the oil and gas sector was help the oil industry. According to OPEC, Secretary General has said it will be at least much stronger in the second half of 2009 than
4 www.bunkerspot.com February / March 2010 bunkerspot Bunker Overview
it was in the first six months, with 485 deals Nov/Dec-09 Jan-10 concluded compared to 352, and it expected 380 IFO 30-04 07-11 14-18 21-25 28-01 04-08 11-15 18-22 25-29 the upward trend to continue in 2010. Rotterdam d 455 441 426 432 441 470 472 445 435 On page 24, Lesley Bankes-Hughes looks Gibraltar d 472 469 462 465 469 499 501 474 457 at the recent merger and acquisition activity Piraeus d 473 466 450 451 458 494 495 474 458 in the bunker industry and finds that, when all the gloss of ‘synergies’ and ‘global reach’ are Suez d 497 503 501 500 493 499 512 513 503 stripped away, the main driver for many deals Fujairah d 473 463 453 461 474 497 494 474 457 Durban w n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a in the marine fuels sector is a simple matter of ‘survival’. Tokyo d 513 503 492 501 519 540 534 513 512 When faced with uncertainty, businesses Busan d 488 497 496 506 521 539 520 493 473 generally find that there is ‘safety in numbers’. Hong Kong d 484 478 464 470 488 506 505 489 472 There is, of course, some truth in this; but Singapore d 475 463 456 461 478 502 496 477 459 even the biggest companies will topple if they Los Angeles w 474 480 475 488 472 496 485 466 451 fail to read the market correctly, and react Houston w 460 449 442 443 455 478 482 459 440 accordingly. New York w 477 468 452 453 460 482 495 470 451 The forthcoming ARACON 2010 Panama w 488 485 469 476 484 500 503 484 460 conference, which Bunker Events will be Santos d 464 444 434 455 469 480 471 456 439 organising in Rotterdam on 17-19 March, Buenos Aires d n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a aims to address this issue. The conference programme will include a host of technical, legal and operational sessions, but there will Nov/Dec-09 Jan-10 also be a special presentation on the current 180 IFO 30-04 07-11 14-18 21-25 28-01 04-08 11-15 18-22 25-29 economic outlook for the shipping and the Rotterdam d 474 460 445 447 462 484 489 464 449 bunker industries. Gibraltar d 488 484 476 486 487 515 517 491 473 Writing in the previous issue of Bunkerspot, Piraeus d 488 482 467 467 477 512 512 492 473 Paul Johnston of SeaDebt Management Suez d 510 512 503 503 502 535 526 523 519 noted that demand for debt collection services Fujairah d 484 476 465 475 486 508 506 484 471 has never been stronger (see Bunkerspot, Durban w 507 503 491 497 493 506 503 496 485 December/January, page 50). ‘In a global business such as shipping,’ noted Johnston, Tokyo d 518 509 497 506 522 545 539 521 518 Busan d 500 510 503 516 531 548 528 501 494 ‘securing payment for goods or services Hong Kong d 491 482 471 476 495 516 513 494 478 can often be difficult, especially when the Singapore d 484 474 466 468 483 510 504 485 467 debtor has little in the way of assets or can’t be pursued cost-effectively through normal Los Angeles w 490 495 490 498 482 515 502 483 492 litigation. In today’s economic environment, Houston w 473 461 451 454 466 490 495 476 451 when so many companies are struggling to New York w 502 488 470 474 480 499 515 491 469 stay in business, the problems associated with Panama w 511 505 501 503 514 523 530 515 490 non-payment of debt inevitably increase.’ Santos d 483 463 453 470 488 499 490 475 458 We appreciate that we are running the risk Buenos Aires d 488 491 482 493 505 498 515 502 486 of coming across as too self-promotional, but we would like to point out that Petrospot has Nov/Dec-09 Jan-10 an event which addresses this issue too: the MDO 30-04 07-11 14-18 21-25 28-01 04-08 11-15 18-22 25-29 Managing Credit Risk seminar, which will next be held in April in Singapore (see page 56). Rotterdam d 595 583 582 594 623 635 630 592 572 Gibraltar d 657 641 630 645 651 682 689 659 622 Piraeus d 651 632 610 625 636 683 676 647 620
Suez d 764 1006 950 950 950 950 909 875 910 Fujairah d 638 635 638 639 649 661 656 657 653 Durban w 631 627 621 625 635 661 658 643 629
Tokyo d 618 624 619 633 655 680 673 656 646 Busan d 639 637 631 651 660 679 677 646 644 Hong Kong d 661 647 650 641 677 694 691 677 654 GLANDER Singapore d 630 614 591 595 630 653 655 625 601
Los Angeles w 704 704 691 714 715 718 705 688 654 Bunkerspot prices are compiled from the Houston w 622 619 608 625 634 663 678 666 646 reports of the four brokers whose market New York w 668 663 651 659 675 697 705 675 666 reports have consistently proved the most Panama w 718 714 708 708 720 729 730 720 694 reliable and accurate: Cockett Marine Oil Santos d 669 661 645 662 697 738 728 691 668 Limited, LQM, Glander International Inc., Buenos Aires d 706 710 703 714 732 714 733 723 720 and KPI Bridge Oil. Bunkerspot welcomes market reports from other sources for inclusion on its website www.bunkerspot.com KEY: d – delivered • w – ex-wharf • n/a – not available • mdo – marine diesel oil
6 www.bunkerspot.com February / March 2010 bunkerspot Commercial Issues Purchasing power
hile the much vaunted ‘green posed by larger players in a diminishing Lesley Bankes-Hughes shoots’ of recovery are market. Furthermore, it is also important looks at recent deals in Wbeginning to emerge in some to step back and take a wider view when industrial sectors (and, with an irony of trying to spot the drivers influencing M&A the bunker sector – and almost breathtaking proportions, seem activity in the bunker sector. More often than to be positively thriving in some areas not, marine fuel companies are not isolated, asks what is driving of the banking world), other sectors are independent entities in today’s commercial still languishing in a state of unremitting world. They are part of larger organisations M&A activity in these economic gloom. which have interests in many different areas The pulse of the global shipping sector of maritime transportation and logistics, straitened times remains perceptible, but it is very weak. or, indeed, in other industrial and finance Shipping companies continue to suffer sectors. Some deals may be part of this larger swingeing losses and, for some, the ignominy process of vertical integration as companies of bankruptcy. A large percentage of the create more complex and interdependent global fleet has been mothballed (with some operational structures – sometimes in an operators deciding that scrapping is the only attempt to reduce their exposure in specific option) and credit lines are remaining very business areas which may be highly vulnerable tight. Adding to the general malaise is the in times of economic freefall. prospect of a wave of newbuilds flooding Currently, the problem of under- into an already saturated market over the capitalisation is a persistent issue in the next five years or so, and, just to exacerbate shipping sector as escalating operating costs shipping’s woes, there are many predictions erode working capital reserves, leaving little that oil prices are set to remain relatively high left over for corporate shopping sprees. Many for the foreseeable future. banks have emphatically closed their doors to In this volatile and fragile climate, bunker clients seeking loans for business expansion, companies continue to find themselves so tracking down funds for potential between the proverbial rock and a hard place. acquisitions can, in today’s paralysed financial Oil supply is still out of kilter with even the climate, be a rather thankless occupation. current much reduced levels of demand, One of the headline deals of late 2009 marine fuel prices are comparatively high, was Glencore’s offer to purchase the 51% and chasing payment from cash-strapped stake in Chemoil held by the family of its customers is a daily problem for suppliers. late founder, Robert Chandran. The reason In such straitened economic for the deal – the family’s wish to divest its circumstances, most sectors would batten interest in the company – makes it a one- down the hatches, pare down their off in terms of M&A in the sector, but the operational expenditure as far as possible, and bidding interest it generated says a lot about wait for the storm to subside. Against such a the appetite for deal-making in the marine backdrop, it would be a brave commentator fuels industry. who would predict that the mergers and The $233 million cash offer for the acquisitions (M&A) sector would remain holding would effectively value the whole buoyant. However, acquisitions, joint ventures company at around $449 million – and, at and alliances are being struck in the bunker the time of writing, it still remains to be sector – even in the doldrums of late 2009/ seen how successful Glencore will be in early 2010. The obvious questions are: how securing the balance of the shares in the – in financial terms – are these deals being business. However, the timing of the deal is struck, and what is the rationale or impetus quite interesting, coming after the posting behind them? of Chemoil’s third quarter (Q3) results in A look at recent purchases and link-ups September, revealing a net loss of $12.6 in the marine fuels sector would seem to million and a fall in revenue of some 40% indicate that geographical business expansion from the year before – precipitated, obviously, is still the driver in many cases, with the by the trading meltdown in the shipping acquisition of local suppliers, or alliances with sector. them, providing a ‘ready to go’ solution to Glencore’s offer was at a discount of the difficulty of building up a business profile around 21% to Chemoil’s closing share price in a new area. In addition, individual national at the time of the bid. So, perhaps this was a regulations often demand a partnership with good time to buy from Glencore’s point of an indigenous operator as a condition of view, but what does Chemoil bring to this market entry. vast global conglomerate with interests in a Companies may also be looking for deals plethora of commodities and raw materials? to increase their existing market share and Perhaps a look at the other rumoured fleet size, or more cynically, they could be contenders for the Chemoil prize brings bolstering their operations against the ‘threat’ us closer to an answer. Vitol and Morgan
24 www.bunkerspot.com February / March 2010 bunkerspot Commercial Issues
Stanley are believed to have been in the just recently announced that it is to become Blood on the carpet bidding race, both organisations with a ConocoPhillips marine agent to extend Companies that are locked in to newbuild extensive interests in oil trading and other its outreach – a business model that the contracts are in an unenviable situation, with commodities, and what Chemoil could have company says it intends to replicate so as to a ‘collapse in loan to asset values’, says Mike brought them, apart from its overall marine further extend its UK business. Vernell, of Watson, Farley and Williams. fuel business, was in a sense, prime real estate Over the past two decades it would be fair He is more optimistic about the state of the in key ports. Sometimes, the niche player has to say that World Fuel Services did much shipping sector in the first weeks of 2010 than unrivalled access to business opportunities to set the pace in M&A with its acquisition in the weeks running up to the end of the that that even the corporate Goliath can only of Trans-Tec Services, Bunkerfuels, year, but, he says, ‘overall, sentiment is very achieve through the acquisition of a third Marine Energy (Arabia), Norse Bunkers subdued’ and, as far as the newbuild sector is party ‘minnow’. A/S, Oil Shipping, Tramp Oil, and, in concerned, ‘There is blood on the carpet – if Chemoil’s presence in the United States, 2008, Henty Oil. Similarly, no review of you don’t have funds in place to finance a Fujairah, Mundra in India, and at the Helios current M&A activity in the bunker sector new order, you can kiss it goodbye’. Terminal on Jurong Island in Singapore are would be complete without a reference to How many bunker companies will find valuable prizes, particularly given the price Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. this a problem will probably begin to emerge tag of $233 million for the shareholding. (AMPNI). One industry analyst commented in 2010. Newbuild programmes will be subject There seems to be a voracious appetite at the to Bunkerspot about its seemingly ‘effortless to delays as companies try to shunt delivery moment for terminal acquisitions, notably growth when everyone else is suffering’. dates from 2011/2012 to 2014/2015. Earlier from financial/trading institutions. Not only Many column inches have been devoted to predictions of major order cancellations look does terminal storage give the purchaser its ambitious newbuild purchase programme, to have been a little off the mark. An analyst a valuable physical asset, but it also brings but corporate acquisitions have also figured at Drewry Shipping noted that while there with it the strategically important control of strongly in its recent strategy for growth. In would continue to be some cancellations, ‘it downstream supply – particularly within a 2007, it purchased (from cash flow) Bunkers will not be the headline figure – not the 50% crowded competitive market in a major port at Sea which gave it access to north west which has been spoken about’. such as Singapore. Europe, as well as control of a marine terminal. Furthermore, while some of the shipyards For Glencore, the deal also catapults it This was followed in 2008 by a foray into the who embraced the newbuild business so up the list of bunker suppliers in Singapore. Canadian market with the purchase of ICS wholeheartedly are now struggling for In 2008, Glencore was ranked as 22nd and Petroleum, a Vancouver and Montreal-based financial survival, analysts say that it is mainly Chemoil, 19th. However, newly released marketing and physical supplier. the second and third tier yards which are statistics from the Maritime and Port The $185.2 million raised through an really feeling the pressure. Mike Vernell also Authority of Singapore (MPA) show that initial public offering (IPO) in 2006 has, of points out that the Chinese shipyards are Chemoil had climbed to ninth position in course, supported the company’s ambitions better protected that those in Korea and Japan, 2009, thus giving Glencore an enviable new for growth, and it would seem that, even ‘because they demanded bank guarantees on profile as a supplier in this region. in these harsh economic times, financial instalment payments – this is a commitment Building critical mass and extending institutions are amenable to releasing funds that the banks won’t walk away from’. geographical coverage continues to drive the to Aegean – at the time of writing, the pace of deal-making in the marine fuel sector, company had some $420 million in working Locked into newbuild contracts witness Bominflot’s recent takeover of SBI. capital credit facilities. Those bunker companies locked into such This gives the German supplier a valuable The proposed purchase of the ARA newbuild contracts, may have little appetite position in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam- player, Verbeke Bunkering, significantly lifts for acquisitions, but they may be more Antwerp (ARA) region, and also extends Aegean’s market share and will substantially receptive to bid approaches than maybe five its overall European operations which, prior increase its bunker fuel sales volumes. years ago. Similarly, even those companies to the deal, centred on Germany, Estonia, Interestingly, Aegean has chosen to go to with an enviable geographical reach may Greece, Spain and Gibraltar. the capital market to raise money for what well be suffering from client defaults on Similarly, the Wrist Group’s recent it calls ‘certain corporate acquisitions and for supply payments. Realistically, this is what acquisition history indicates a strengthening general corporate purposes’. it has come down to: if a well-established of core businesses while pushing into new The cost of Verbeke has not been bunker company is not getting paid for its markets to achieve greater vertical integration disclosed but most analysts put it at around fuel, it will very quickly have to face up to and pursue the ‘holy grail’ of globalisation. One $50 million, and many believe that this may its vulnerabilities. It may well look either to of the group’s subsidiaries, OW Bunker, has, be just the start of a fairly assiduous corporate buy (if it has the funds) a less cash-troubled since 2008, opened a trading office in Geneva shopping spree. company to bolster its position or seek a in support of its ARA presence, has ventured So how will M&A activity pan out for saviour in a competitor who is willing to into Australia, and has also opened a North the bunker industry in 2010, given that few buy. Atlantic bunker supply station in Fuglefjord, will be able to fund purchases from cash The chances are that the ambition of the Faroe Islands – all independently initiated flows which already are under pressure to global expansion for bunker players will be strategies for growth rather than expansion maintain a company’s day-to-day survival put on hold in 2010/2011 – companies are by corporate accretion. However, the group and which are functioning as a front line more focussed on implementing survival has also grown its ship supply operations over defence against payment defaults. There is strategies. As an analyst at Poten & Partners recent years, and evidence of this strategy little likelihood that banks are going to relax told Bunkerspot: ‘Companies are getting surfaced most recently with the purchase of their position on lending to the shipping together to survive – the bigger the better One Source America. This, the largest deal sector in the foreseeable future, and those right now.’ Whatever happens in M&A in the in the group’s corporate history, will give the bunker companies who are not listed on bunker sector in 2010, and whatever gloss business major access to the United States and global stock exchanges (i.e. the majority) will, companies choose to put on it, the reality is Canada. In reality, it is often only by taking of course, not be able to go to the market to that survival will be the root cause of many the acquisition route that entry into such raise funds. deals that will be struck. Come 2011, it’s a large (and sometimes protectionist) markets For those that are listed, perhaps raising reasonable assumption to make that there can be successfully achieved. money through share issues will solve the will be fewer bunker players in the market Of course, not all deals have to be cross- liquidity problem, at least for smaller scale and life for the independents is going to be border (although the nature of the bunker acquisitions, as in the case of Verbeke. One particularly hard. industry often dictates that alliances will industry observer told Bunkerspot that while Bunkerspot’s prediction is that marine be trans-national). Gaining critical mass in ‘funding is very difficult to get hold of for fuel companies will increasingly find that a national market through a step-by-step any project’, there are signs that raising life will be going forwards as part of a approach is sometimes a way forward for money through equity issues might be a way much larger corporation which has multiple corporate expansion. In the UK, for example, forward, and that an increased demand for business interests – the business culture of the OceanConnect moved beyond London to this funding option has recently been seen in smaller bunker supplier may well be set for a establish an office in Hull in 2007, and has the United States and Norway. radical change.
26 www.bunkerspot.com February / March 2010 bunkerspot Commercial Issues Spotting a new op
For the international s the ripple effect of the worldwide recession continues to ‘The rule goes, as bunker bunker market, writes Aimpact many business sectors, the suppliers look to sell into a bunker fuel market is no exception. The Adrian Tolson of boom and eventual bust of the world broader base of customers economy over the past decade has not – and limit their counter Chemoil, 2010 means been more keenly felt than within the shipping industry. It finds itself in the party risk by limiting fewer contracted and unenviable position of being indebted credit lines to the bigger to banks to the tune of billions of more spot transactions, dollars yet reliant upon them and other customers – so the supplier reduced credit lines, financial institutions for credit in order is forced to concede crucial to buy bunker fuel. more insurance and an This trend has coincided with an margins in order to secure unexpected scarcity in fuel oil. The global the business’ increasingly fragmented recession and associated fall in oil products demand in the last two years led to excess customer base. Welcome refining capacity. Capacity with large residual as suppliers face greater risks of their production was the first to be closed and this customers defaulting, while existing cover is to the new world order created an even tighter market for fuel oil, constantly being reduced. And, despite recent narrowing the value of fuel oil (and bunker improvements in freight rates the possibility fuel) against crude. Many analysts predict this of shipping companies facing bankruptcy trend to continue for the next four to five remains omnipresent, leaving suppliers likely years. to face heavy insurance premiums for many Clearly, the supply of bunker fuel has years as a result. fallen during the last two years, and while As credit tightens, the terms of that demand for bunkers has also fallen, the fall credit are becoming more stringent. Bunker in supply has outstripped the fall in demand. companies have begun to cap credit lines, This situation has created a disconnect in opening the door to willing traders to become the normal market relationships and values a third party to support transactions. While of residual fuel and bunkers, so squeezing the length of credit lines has been reduced, suppliers’ bunker margins, and in particular this hasn’t prevented some bunker suppliers contract margins. Suppliers have also hurt and traders seeking shorter terms on bunker their own margins. The rule goes, as bunker transactions within the typical 30 days. suppliers look to sell into a broader base of While not yet a paradigm shift, trends have customers – and limit their counter party started to emerge to reveal that shipowners risk by limiting credit lines to the bigger and operators are not exclusively focused on customers – so the supplier is forced to price in the new economic world. Purchasers concede crucial margins in order to secure are also looking for longer term deals and are the business. willing to pay for increased credit. With average bunker fuel prices for For suppliers and traders, increasing intermediate fuel oil around $500 a tonne margins coupled with relatively low interest and credit so tight, cash flow is once again rates and the right customer can make dominating the bunker suppliers’ thinking. extending credit terms sound economic So much so, in fact, that the combination of sense in the current market. Companies high prices, low margins and increased credit which have invested heavily in credit control risk will inevitably see bunker suppliers re- evaluating the true value of dealing in high volume term contracts rather than spot ‘The combination of high Adrian Tolson is Vice President of Sales and deals. prices, low margins and Marketing of Chemoil, one of the world’s leading In a volatile market environment, sellers independent physical suppliers of marine fuel. that deal more in the spot market have been increased credit risk will able to benefit from increased margins. inevitably see bunker Contact Indeed, while this state of affairs continues, Adrian Tolson with high prices, questionable credit and suppliers re-evaluating Chemoil tighter margins, bunker suppliers are likely to the true value of dealing Tel: +1 415 268 2700 shift their focus back to more traditional spot in high volume term Fax: +1 415 420 0767 market bunkering. Email: [email protected] Not only has credit become a key issue, contracts rather than Web: www.chemoil.com but so too has securing insurance, with spot deals’ premiums becoming increasingly expensive
28 www.bunkerspot.com February / March 2010 bunkerspot Commercial Issues portunity
and management (as Chemoil has) therefore in fuel purchasing are a part of a cyclical have an opportunity to make risk assessment process of adjusting to market trends. With ‘Shipowners and operators comparisons with customers based on greater the bunker market facing considerable supply importance being given to credit interest side cost volatility, tighter margins and fuel are not exclusively premiums than the margin of the fuel oil. A oil scarcity in many ports, it is likely suppliers focused on price in the new world order indeed. will either push for higher contract prices or a The outlook is uncertain. Opportunities shift to the spot market that enables flexibility new economic world. in the market remain and Chemoil has for suppliers to adapt to unpredictable market Purchasers are also benefited from its strong financial position, trends. looking for longer term global reach, customer relationships and For shipowners, used to many years experience in the bunker market to show of close ties and long term contracts with deals and are willing to pay strong bunker retail sales in many of the bunker suppliers, the change in supply for increased credit’ markets it operates in. Nevertheless, risks patterns matched with reduced credit is likely remain high for bunker companies and credit to lead to more hours in purchasing bunker risk management has become an essential fuel and tougher bunker fuel negotiations part of operating a bunker company – a with bunker suppliers. factor that will remain in place even once Bunkering, like shipowning, is a the current path of economic downturn has competitive market and when it comes to been negotiated safely. managing the ripple effect of the recession, For Chemoil – a company that sells bunker suppliers will seek to adjust their actively in the spot market as it does in the terms of business in 2010 to the new world term contract market – the current changes order.
bunkerspot February / March 2010 www.bunkerspot.com 29 Risk Management Safety matters
he financial turmoil that the need to identify income structure. The use of Henrik Zederkof of world markets have experienced hedging as described above does not provide Dan-Bunkering expects Tduring late 2008 and 2009 has the shipping company with additional forced financial institutions and shipping security and the hedge turns into a gamble to see a growing companies to adjust their way of doing rather than an attempt to gain security. It is business. Banks have become more risk important that a suitable hedging strategy is interest in bunker risk averse and are demanding a higher level applied so the true purpose of the hedge is of transparency and security in future fulfilled – eliminating risk. A close dialogue management earnings. Because of this, more and with a professional and knowledgeable more shipping companies have been provider of hedging solutions is essential. forced to apply risk management to a greater extent than before. The crisis Hedging strategies has certainly emphasised the need for Several hedging strategies are available in effective risk management and there is today’s market and each offer individual no doubt that this tool will be at the top advantages. Products like fixed price of the agenda for years to come within agreements (FPAs) and maximum price shipping companies. agreements (MPAs) are good examples of There is a reason to believe that risk widely used strategies. Both products include management in fuel prices will be widely physical delivery of the product. A fixed applied in the forthcoming years. The most price agreement provides the buyer with a volatile and unpredictable entry in marine completely fixed cost level. Such a strategy accounts is fuel expenses. Bunker costs make might not be suitable for companies with up a high percentage of the overall cost of no fixed income. However, a fixed price running a ship. Hence risk management in agreement is perfectly suitable for cruise fuel prices will make sense to many shipping operators or shipping companies with an companies. Applying these tools to fuel prices income based on a COA. The MPA, on is a vital part of winning the battle against the other hand, provides an upper limit for volatile bunker prices. the bunker price without eliminating the Bunker risk management can eliminate advantage of decreasing bunker prices. Such or minimise the risk related to volatile bunker an agreement would be suitable for companies prices. It is a concept that incorporates that cannot afford to eliminate a potential several hedging tools and strategies, designed gain when prices are moving down. to meet the demands of shipping companies. In the past, bunker risk management has They provide the companies with the ability been disregarded by many, because hedging to fix cost at a certain level. The tools can was considered an unnecessary restraint on also be used to create floors or caps on the the flexibility of the vessel’s operation. Even bunker price. In other words, bunker risk though bunker hedging may cause a few management is used to secure budgets. limitations, new concepts have incorporated The financial crisis has not only increased a higher level of flexibility and today hedging the demand for risk management, but also tools can be customised to meet the demand taught us the consequences of applying for security and flexibility in one package. risk management tools incorrectly. Bunker Concepts like optional ports ensure that hedging has been blamed for decreasing vessels are allowed to bunker in various operational profits and has been used widely ports under the same hedging agreement. as an explanation by companies experiencing The optional ports concept allows the losses. For example, shipping companies shipping company to shift the contracted covered by bunker clauses will not gain from volume between any ports of their choice. Henrik Zederkof is the Managing Director of A/S hedging bunker costs. The combination of This option is very convenient for ships not Dan-Bunkering Ltd. bunker clauses and bunker hedging may trading regularly between a few ports and A/S Dan-Bunkering Ltd has been active in the even increase risk. Besides operational losses, shows that bunker risk management is also a bunker business for more than 30 years and today the use of hedging can lead to a loss of tool suitable for tramp operators. has offices in Middelfart, Copenhagen, Shanghai, competitiveness. Shipping companies in a Most hedging agreements also include Kaliningrad and Singapore. competitive market with no fixed income, the option to alter the type of fuel needed, such as contract of affreightments (COAs), ensuring that a shipping company has Contact: will experience a loss of competitiveness in maximum flexibility when it comes to Henrik Zederkof times of falling bunker prices. This is because deciding which ships to bunker under the Managing Director operational costs are kept high as the hedge agreed contract. These concepts are essential A/S Dan-Bunkering Ltd is offsetting the decline in bunker prices. In for the survival and development of bunker Tel: +45 6441 5401 return, the company will gain a competitive risk management. Naturally, hedging in its Email: [email protected] advantage in times of increasing bunker simplest form will be sufficient for some Web: www.dan-bunkering.dk prices. This example clearly highlights the shipping companies but a vast majority of them
32 www.bunkerspot.com February / March 2010 bunkerspot Risk Management
will require flexibility. Successful providers of hedging tools today makes it possible for all hedging tools will therefore depend on their types of shipping companies to apply bunker ‘Combining the practicality ability to develop new concepts and maintain risk management. Banks, financial institutions a high level of flexibility and customisation. and shareholders will focus even further on of the bunker and Companies involved in both hedging and risk management. shipping industry with the the actual supply of bunkers will maintain a possibilities of the financial competitive advantage, as know-how from Knowledgeable provider both worlds can be combined into one Buyers of sea transportation will experience world is exactly the package, providing end users with an all-in- a need for risk management and a demand challenge that providers of one solution. Combining the practicality of for flat freight rates without bunker clauses the bunker and shipping industry with the will emerge. As a result of this, more and bunker risk management possibilities of the financial world is exactly more shipping companies will need to learn are facing. A successful the challenge that providers of bunker the concepts of bunker risk management. risk management are facing. A successful Choosing a skilled and knowledgeable combination of the two is combination of the two is the very foundation hedging provider with experience from the the very foundation of a of a good hedging concept. bunker market is the first step in a successful risk management strategy. Suppliers’ ability to good hedging concept’ Flexible hedging tools understand shipping, bunkering and financial We believe that bunker risk management will markets is absolutely necessary to create a gain momentum and become an increasingly product that combines the practicality of used tool within all shipping segments in the shipping and the possibilities of the financial years to come. The flexibility incorporated in world.
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Volume 6 working in the international bunker industry. Number 5 October / November 2009 Our aim is to provide a comprehensive, accurate – and always independent – INDEPENDENT INTELLIGENCE FOR THE GLOBAL BUNKER INDUSTRY view of the multi-faceted global marine fuels industry. www.bunkerspot.com
Volume 6 Number 6 BUNKER FUEL PERFORMANCE: December 2009 / January 2010 s )3/ )SSUES s 3HIP !RREST Meeting environmental challenges s &UEL