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Worcestershire Demographic Report – Census 2011

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Worcestershire Demographic Report – Census 2011 This report examines all aspects of demography within Worcestershire and the districts, including population structure, in light of the results of the 2011 Census. Patterns of migration into and out of Worcestershire and the districts, and future population and household projections are also considered. Worcestershire Demographic Report – Census 2011 Document Details: Date: 23rd September 2013 Contact: Mike Rice, Senior Research Officer 01905 822 044 [email protected] 1 www.worcestershire.gov.uk Contents 1. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 5 2. Aim of the Report........................................................................................................................ 7 3. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 7 4. About Worcestershire ................................................................................................................ 7 5. Population Estimates ................................................................................................................. 7 6. Internal Migration .................................................................................................................... 17 6.1. Total Internal Migration into Worcestershire and the Districts ............................................. 18 6.2. Internal Migration into Worcestershire and the Districts by Age Group ............................. 19 6.3. Intra-Regional Migration into Worcestershire and the Districts ......................................... 21 6.4. Inter-Regional Migration into Worcestershire and the Districts ......................................... 22 7. Net Movements for Worcestershire and the Districts ............................................................. 25 7.1. Net Movements in and out of Worcestershire ...................................................................... 25 7.2. Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional Movements for Bromsgrove ...................................... 28 7.3. Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional Movements for Malvern Hills .................................... 29 7.4. Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional Movements for Redditch ........................................... 30 7.5. Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional Movements for Worcester City .................................. 30 7.6. Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional Movements for Wychavon ......................................... 31 7.7. Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional Movements for Wyre Forest ...................................... 32 8. International Migration – ONS Mid-year Estimates ................................................................. 33 9. Total Net Migration .................................................................................................................. 38 10. Population and Household Projections. ................................................................................... 39 2 List of Figures Figure 1 – Age Structure in Worcestershire, West Midlands Region and England, 2011……………………….........8 Figure 2 – Age Structure in Worcestershire by gender and 5-year age group, 2011………………….…………........9 Figure 3 – Population for Worcestershire Districts by Urban/Rural Definition, mid-2011…………………………......10 Figure 4 – Change in Population Structure in Worcestershire, 1991-2011……………………………………………..12 Figure 5 – Population of Worcestershire Districts by 5-year Age Groups, 2011………………………………...….....14 Figure 6 – Internal Net Migration into Worcestershire and the Districts, 2006-11………………………...……………19 Figure 7 – Average Annual Internal Net Migration into Worcestershire by 5-year age group, 2006-11…...............20 Figure 8 – Average Annual Internal Net Migration into Worcestershire Districts by Broad Age Group, 2006-11…………………….……………………………………………………………………………………..…………….20 Figure 9 – Average Annual Net Migration into Worcestershire from each of the Other Regions, 2006-11………....24 Figure 11 – Net Gain into Worcestershire from Selected Areas, 2006-11………………………………………….......25 Figure 12 – Annual Net Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional Migration into Worcestershire by Local Authority or by Region, 2006-11…………………………………………………………………………………………………………....26 Figure 13 – Net Internal Migration into Bromsgrove by Local Authority or by Region, 2006-11………..……………..28 Figure 14 – Net Internal Migration into Malvern Hills by Local Authority or by Region, 2006-11……………………...29 Figure 15 – Net Internal Migration into Redditch by Local Authority or by Region, 2006-11…………………….........30 Figure 16 – Net Internal Migration into Worcester City by Local Authority or by Region, 2006-11……………..........31 Figure 17 – Net Internal Migration into Wychavon by Local Authority or by Region, 2006-11………………………...32 Figure 18 – Net Internal Migration into Wyre Forest by Local Authority or by Region, 2006-11……………………....33 Figure 19 – Net International Migration into the Districts, 2001-11……………………………………………..………..,35 Figure 20 – Gross International Migration in and out of the County, 2001-11………………………………….………..35 Figure 21 – NINo Registrations in the Worcestershire Districts, 2002-11……………………………………….….……36 Figure 22 – Comparison between Gross International Movements into Worcestershire and NINo Registrations into Worcestershire, 2002-11……………………………………………………………………….….37 Figure 23 – Gross International Movements into Worcestershire Districts, 2002-11………………………...………...37 Figure 24 – Internal, International and Total Net Migration into Worcestershire, 2001-11………………………........38 Figure 25 – Total Net Migration into the Worcestershire Districts, 2006-11………………………………………….....39 Figure 26 – Projected Percentage Population Change in Worcestershire by Age Group, 2011-21…………….…....40 Figure 27 – Projected Percentage Population Change in People aged 16-64 in Worcestershire by District, 2011-21…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….41 3 List of Tables Table 1 – Population of Worcestershire by Age and Sex, 2011…………………………………………………………..9 Table 2 – 2011 Census Population Estimates – Selected Age Groups (thousands)…………………………………..10 Table 3 – 2011 Census Population Estimates – Key Age Groups (thousands)………….………………….…….……11 Table 4 – Population Change over Time, 1991 - 2011 (thousands)………………………………………………..……11 Table 5 – Components of Population Change over Time, 5-year annual average, 2006-11………………………….13 Table 6 – Population Estimates by Ethnic Group for Worcestershire and National/Regional Averages, 2011 Census…………………………………...…...………………………………………………………………………….15 Table 7 – Population Proportions by Ethnic Group for Worcestershire and the Districts, 2011 Census………….....15 Table 8 – Change in Population by Ethnic Group in Worcestershire, 2001-11………………………………………….16 Table 9 – Change in Numbers of BME Population for Worcestershire and the Districts, 2001-11………...…………17 Table 10 – Total Net Internal Migration into the Worcestershire Districts, 2006-11……………………….……………18 Table 11 – Average Annual Net Intra-Regional Migration into the Worcestershire Districts, 2006-11.……………….21 Table 12 – Average Annual Net Inter-Regional Migration into the Worcestershire Districts, 2006-11………………..22 Table 13 - Average Annual Net Inter-Regional Migration between the Worcestershire Districts and the South West, the South East & London and the East,, 2006-11………...……………………………………………..…..23 Table 14 - Average Annual Net Inter-Regional Migration between the Worcestershire Districts and Yorkshire & the Humber, the East Midlands and the North West, 2006-11..………………………………………...…..23 Table 15 – Average Annual Gross & Net Movements between Worcestershire and areas within London & the South East, 2006-11……………………………………………………………………………………………………..27 Table 16 – Average Annual Gross & Net Movements between Worcestershire and areas within the South West, 2006-11……………………………………………………………………………………………………….27 . Table 17 - Total Net International Migration into the Worcestershire Districts, 2006-11………………………………..34 Table 18 - NINo Registrations in the Worcestershire Districts, 2002-11………………………………………………....36 Table 19 - Total Net Migration into the Worcestershire Districts, 2006-11……………………………………....……...38 Table 20 - ONS 2011-based Population Projections, Worcestershire Districts, 2011-21 (thousands)……………....40 Table 21 – ONS 2011-based Population Projections, 2011-21 Percentage Change by Age Group for Worcestershire Districts………………………………………………………………………………………………………..41 Table 22 – CLG 2011-based Household Projections for Worcestershire and the Districts, 2011-21 (thousands)….42 Table 23 - Projected Percentage Household Change in Worcestershire by Household Type, 2011-21………….….42 Table 24 - Projected Change of One-Person Households in Worcestershire by Age of Household Representative, 2011-21……………………………………………………………………………………………………...43 Table 25 – 2011-based Projected Average Household Size, 2011-21…………………………………………………..43 4 1. Executive Summary 1. This report looks at demographic aspects in Worcestershire and the districts. This includes current population including age structure, the urban/rural split, and splits by gender and ethnicity. Births and deaths in the county are considered, as well as migration in and out Worcestershire, including the numbers of people and age structure of those moving into and out of the county and each of the districts. Population and household projections, considering demographic changes in the future if current trends continue, are also examined. 2. From the 2011 Census,
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