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CREATING and USING SPACE for PEACE Spencer Kaplan, Joanne Kim, Hong Pham, and Lan Tang

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CREATING and USING SPACE for PEACE Spencer Kaplan, Joanne Kim, Hong Pham, and Lan Tang STUDENT PROPOSAL February 2021 CREATING AND USING SPACE FOR PEACE Spencer Kaplan, Joanne Kim, Hong Pham, and Lan Tang Contents Creating and Using Space for Peace 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Space as an Opportunity to Reset the Given the surge of global interest in a new Sino-American Relationship 2 phase of space exploration, this proposal Space Technology 3 explores how cooperation in the sector represents a promising opportunity for Feasibility 3 peaceful collaboration on scientific projects Benefits 3 that can improve overall bilateral ties. The proposal discusses the feasibility and Endnotes 5 benefits of working on a joint U.S.-China space initiative to utilize existing satellite technology to research disease prevention, climate change, and other areas of scientific interest. This paper is one of the two winning proposals from the 2020-2021 U.S.-China Student Challenge. The conclusions and recommendations of this publication are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the initiative, its leadership, or its other scholars. CREATING AND USING SPACE FOR PEACE The United States and the People’s Republic of China should collaborate on a satellite program that generates data-centric insights on mutual problems like climate change and emerging diseases. In its 2011 Commerce, Justice, and Science appropriations bill, the United States Congress passed what later became known as the Wolf Amendment.1 Signed due to concerns that working with China would endanger America’s qualitative lead on aerospace technology, the legislation bars U.S. entities from cooperating with Chinese organizations on space projects.2 As the United States and China embark on a new era of space competition, it is increasingly apparent that the Wolf Amendment has only fueled tension at the expense of collaboration.3 In this sense, it is emblematic of the troubled Sino-American relationship: filled with needless tension over issues of common interest. To begin tackling various mutual problems, the two nations must first find ways to build trust. Space, with its unique opportunity for cooperation, can serve as an incubator wherein both countries could cultivate a positive, symbiotic relationship.4 SPACE AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESET THE SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP Over the next century, the United States and China will both continue to face intensified global challenges. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated, the countries do not always agree on the nature of these problems nor mitigation methods. Fundamentally, their disagreement over [T]he United States and China the pandemic stems from drawing conclusions from different datasets: a direct result of a lack of should develop and manage joint coordination and cooperation. Specifically, both satellite platforms that can contribute countries have accused each other of artificially to global scientific data sets on altering COVID-19 case numbers to bolster their epidemiology, climate change, and global image.5 With that in mind, the United other areas of mutual concern. States and China should develop and manage joint satellite platforms that can contribute to global scientific data sets on epidemiology, climate change, and other areas of mutual concern. Moreover, a joint program that combats international problems would not only fulfill the Outer Space Treaty but epitomize its drafters’ vision that the “use of outer space shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries.”6 SPACE TECHNOLOGY Satellites are extremely effective at gathering data because they take advantage of the orbital environment’s unique dynamics. The high altitude of space platforms affords satellites a unique perspective and the ability to monitor and record data from large portions of the Earth at any given time. Relatedly, since satellites orbit the Earth constantly, they can take measurements on a consistent schedule, which helps develop robust datasets that could contribute to significant scientific findings. For example, in 2007, Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues | 2 a study found that satellite imagery could be used to predict the emergence of Ebola outbreaks because specific patterns in vegetation growth were associated with cases of the disease.7 Similarly, NASA has used satellite data to extrapolate early warning models for the spread of mosquito-borne diseases by monitoring soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation around the world.8 Applying similar methods to emergent diseases like novel coronaviruses could lead to models that predict and prevent outbreaks, ultimately benefiting both countries. By combining the scientific brainpower of scientists from the United States and China and sharing the financial burden of satellite management, the initiative could improve research on disease prevention, climate change, and other areas of scientific interest. FEASIBILITY Of course, this proposal requires that China and the United States agree to cooperate. China may see such an initiative as Western-driven propaganda, while the United States could view it as dangerous naiveté. Moreover, conflict over issues like intellectual property theft and the United States’ military presence in the South China Sea threatens to derail any avenues of cooperation. While contemporary tensions and governmental obstacles like suspicion and the Wolf Amendment may appear to jeopardize any joint space initiative, careful construction of a mutual space project could ease concerns in both countries. For example, a commitment to exclusively manufacture the platforms using commercially available or old (heritage) systems would eliminate technology transfer concerns, including the fears that motivated the Wolf Amendment. Though using older technology may reduce satellite capabilities, it would mitigate fears of unintentionally transferring sensitive aerospace technology that could have a military function. Still, the program could compensate for lost performance related to the use of older technology by utilizing commercially-available machine learning (ML) software to enhance the satellites’ imaging and data collection functionalities. Since satellites process vast quantities of data every day, ML- enhanced recognition tools could allow scientists to collect and analyze Involving other countries [in a joint satellite millions of satellite images while program] would encourage equitable participation saving processing power, reducing and allow both countries to feel more confident battery use, and actively monitoring that the program is being administered fairly. the health of the satellites.9 There is also a growing precedent for Chinese cooperation with Western nations on space projects. In 2018, China collaborated with France on its first jointly developed satellite. The platform, which is the first in a series of planned satellites, is part of a Sino-French effort to research climate change.10 A year later, when China landed its Chang’e 4 rover on the Moon, NASA received permission from Congress to coordinate the sharing of information from the United States’ Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.11 Although some believe otherwise, Western collaboration with China is not only possible but increasingly common. To ensure the joint satellite program is administered equitably, it should be managed and overseen by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), which has specific expertise in managing space-based data. Since neither country would likely accept the other country hosting the program, the initiative should be nested within a well-established, international body founded to foster space cooperation. Among other projects, UNOOSA manages the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER), which is an international program that coordinates the dissemination of data to developing countries during emergencies and builds technical competency in participating nations.12 Both countries would be expected to equally contribute financial and personnel support to the project, which would feature a joint Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues | 3 manufacturing facility in a third country to build the satellites. Involving other countries–perhaps even the entire international community–would encourage equitable participation and allow both countries to feel more confident that the program is being administered fairly. Within China and the United States, funding could come from the National Natural Science Foundation and the National Science Foundation, respectively. Furthermore, in accordance with the spirit of Article I of the Outer Space Treaty, both countries would be expected to freely share and cooperate on scientific space-based investigations.13 BENEFITS Both the United States and China stand to gain from the benefits of joint space projects. For one, by splitting the cost of expensive satellites, which can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, both countries would generate important scientific findings on areas of mutual need at a lower price.14 Relatedly, creating a common pool of data and reducing reliance on domestic estimates may enable more agreement and a clearer understanding of the situation, even if interpretations differ. Perhaps most importantly, joint scientific projects can serve as the impetus for a more extensive rethinking of the Sino-American relationship. Over time, small-scale collaboration will breed increased cooperation on bigger, more diverse projects. Space can serve as a vital incubator
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