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II Contents Introduction 1 Events and Analysis Global Trade and Economics 2 Security and Defense 5 Elections and Governance in South Asia 8 North Korea and the Singapore Summit 11 Additional Events and Analysis 14 Outreach and Social Media Welcome to Dispatches 18 Engagement 20 The AfPak File Podcast 22 “Inside North Korea’s Dynasty” 23 Staff 24 2018 Fellows 25 Cover (From Top) Wilson Center CEO Jane Harman speaks at Habib House in Seoul, South Korea. Asia Program Director Abraham M. Denmark at a Wilson Center event in Washington, D.C. Interior Image Credits Page 2, top: Lizette Potgieter/Shutterstock. Page 8, top: AP, 2nd row left: Casa nayafana/Shutterstock. Page 11, top: AP, 2nd row right: AP. © Asia Program, 2018. All Rights Reserved Introduction For four decades, the Wilson Center’s Asia Program has been a critical voice in Washington, bringing leading- edge research to debates about Asia’s geopolitics and their meaning for the United States. There is no doubt that Asia is the emerging center of global power, and is in the midst of historic change. Dedicated to improving American understanding of the region’s geopolitics, the Asia Program has greatly enhanced its role in the region and in Washington as a significant voice on political, economic, and security issues in Asia and on U.S. policies and strategies toward the region. Our work has focused on four core areas: South Asia, Northeast Asia, the Korean Peninsula, and Allies and Partners. In each of these areas, we have produced cutting-edge research and hosted high-level events while at the same time greatly enhancing the program’s media engagement. Our team is regularly featured on CNN and BBC, and our commentary has been featured in the New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and in publications across Asia. Our team has also grown in the past year. Jean Lee, a Pulitzer Prize-nominated journalist who served as AP Bureau Chief in Seoul and established the AP Bureau in Pyongyang, joined the team as Director of the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy. We welcomed Dr. Van Jackson and Prashanth Parameswaran as new Global Fellows to contribute to our work on Korea, regional order, and Southeast Asia. We also established a new Asia Advisory Council, composed of senior scholars and former officials from the United States and across the region. Asia is the most dynamic and geopolitically significant region in the world, and I am honored to work with such an extraordinary team. Without them, the Asia Program would not have been able to become such a critical voice in the discussion about the future of this critical region. Abraham M. Denmark Director, Asia Program December 2018 1 Global Trade and Economics Events The Asian Financial Crisis, 20 Years On: A Conversation with Lawrence H. Summers Bangkok’s decision in 1997 to float the baht after failing to support the currency from speculators led to a financial crisis not only in Thailand, but across Asia, most notably Indonesia and South Korea. Two decades since the crisis, countries have enhanced their financial oversight, built up their foreign currency reserves, and have dealt with non-performing loans. But is Asia now better prepared for another financial crisis? U.S. Trade Policy in Northeast Asia The Trump administration views trade surpluses as evidence of winning in the global economy and deficits as proof of losing out. As such, the goal for bilateral trade deals should be to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with key trading partners, most notably in Northeast Asia. The focus has been on pursuing bilateral trading arrangements, but the price of that policy stance has been to sow doubts about the credibility of U.S. leadership in the Asia-Pacific. Politics and Policy of East Asia’s Economic Future The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the most recent, and a highly ambitious, step along a familiar road of international economic liberalization and integration through multilateral trade-plus pacts. Experts gathered for two panel discussions, “After the U.S. TPP ‘Opt-Out’” and “Looking to the Future.” Japan’s Leadership Role in the International Order: Global Expectations, Domestic Challenges From taking the lead to ensure that the Trans-Pacific Partnership thrives even without the United States to concluding a deal with the European Union for a free trade agreement, Japan has been taking an active role in ensuring that free and fair trade rules prevail through a multilateral approach. At the same time, there has been a significant change in how political leadership within Japan is defined, particularly under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Whose Rules for the Digital Economy? Shared Visions, Competing Interests How can international trade rules adequately address the needs of data protection and intellectual property rights, while promoting new growth sectors using online platforms? What are the prospects of harmonizing policies and rules, or will divergence into the digital economy be inevitable? What’s Next for Afghanistan’s Economy? In recent years, as Afghanistan’s security situation has suffered, its economy has struggled as well. Poverty has risen significantly, and a worsening drought has caused major damage to agriculture, a key economic sector. At the same time, there have been some successes, including drops in inflation and rising rates of revenue collection. Publication Paying for Retirement: Challenges for Private Pension Development in Eastern Europe by Michael Corbin, Asia Program Fellow How to meet the economic as well as social needs of the elderly is a challenge for any government. It has been particularly taxing for countries transitioning from a command economy into a free market economy, as citizens have had to adjust expectations for what they should expect from the private as well as public sectors to fund their retirement. Adapting expectations and educating current and future pensioners have been tremendous hurdles for governments as they look to make fundamental changes in paying for pensions. 3 On The Blog The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Energy Geopolitics in Asia “When it comes to assessing the implications of CPEC, issues of energy geopolitics may not be as sexy as concerns about China’s growing influence and presence in South Asia and other matters of grand strategy. And yet considerations about energy geopolitics are no less important—particularly given the precarious state of energy security in a world where supplies are dwindling even as demand remains insatiable.” - Michael Kugelman In Trade, Getting to Yes is Not a Surrender “Yet President Trump’s insistence on fair trade on a level playing field that reciprocates rules of business practices is something that all industrialized countries are clamoring for. In fact, one of the biggest needs to update existing trade rules would be to protect interests that have not been under consideration in trade deals until now, such as protecting intellectual property rights.” - Shihoko Goto U.S. Trade, North Korea Policies Bring Asia’s Biggest Economies to Table “...both Tokyo and Beijing have been flummoxed by the seismic shifts in U.S. trade policy. At the same time, with the United States having no interest in pursuing multilateral trade deals including the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, there is greater motivation for China and Japan to look to concluding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement in an effort not only to facilitate regional trade, but also to further political ties as well.” - Shihoko Goto The Cost of Inconsisent Trade Policy “By imposing punitive tariffs and challenging the WTO as a forum for international trade dispute settlement, the White House should be prepared for the build-up of a coalition of its allies who remain committed to ensuring that trade rules remain not only fair, but also consistent and predictable.” - Shihoko Goto Demographic Challenges in Asian Pensions “Paying for pensions is vital to the quality of life for future retirees in Asia. It’s also an issue of great political and economic importance to current and future policy makers in the region. They are currently wrestling with the dual problems of growing population in the poorest of countries while more developed Asia powers face the quickly approaching reality of rapid aging and declining population.” - Michael Corbin When and Whether National Security Plays a Role in Trade “As the White House looks to impose more tariffs on an array of sectors in the name of national security, the time has come to define what exactly constitutes a national threat in the realm of economic security.” - Shihoko Goto U.S. Political Uncertainties Could Rock Trade Ties Further “Further politicization of trade may be inevitable. With an eye to the presidential elections in two years’ time, the impetus for the White House to step up efforts to demonstrate U.S. strength will only increase...” - Shihoko Goto Wilson Center NOW TPP, Revised and Reborn with Shihoko Goto Wilson Center Podcasts Talking TPP: Japan, the Prize 4 Security and Defense Events Security Challenges in East Asia The National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) in collaboration with the Wilson Center’s Asia Program conducted a briefing addressing Cross-Taiwan Strait relations after the 19th Party Congress; prospects for U.S.-China relations in the Trump era; the North Korea nuclear issue; and the state of Sino-Korean relations. Changing Patterns of Extremism and Terrorism in Pakistan Current tensions between the United States and Pakistan underscore the problems posed by the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network, groups that Washington blames for orchestrating attacks on U.S. troops in Afghanistan from safe havens in Pakistan. However, the story of extremism and terrorism in Pakistan extends well beyond these two groups, and it continues to evolve—even as Pakistan has experienced major reductions in terrorist violence in recent years.

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