Sunderland City Council Final Report
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Sunderland Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2020 Sunderland City Council Final Report July 2020 Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2020 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Sunderland SHMA 2020 Page 2 of 208 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 10 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 15 Background, aims and objectives ................................................................................. 15 Geography .................................................................................................................... 15 Research methodology ................................................................................................. 18 Presentation of data ..................................................................................................... 18 Report structure ........................................................................................................... 18 2. Policy and strategic review ........................................................................................... 20 National Planning Policy Framework ............................................................................ 20 Regional Context .......................................................................................................... 20 Local context ................................................................................................................ 21 Concluding comments .................................................................................................. 23 3. Understanding Sunderland housing market dynamics ................................................. 24 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 24 House price trends ....................................................................................................... 24 Relative affordability .................................................................................................... 32 Household migration .................................................................................................... 33 Past trends in housing delivery .................................................................................... 36 Concluding comments .................................................................................................. 42 4. Housing stock review ................................................................................................... 43 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 43 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure ...................... 43 The age and condition of Sunderland’s housing ........................................................... 51 Houses in multiple occupancy ...................................................................................... 57 Housing tenure ............................................................................................................. 57 The owner‐occupied sector .......................................................................................... 59 The private rented sector ............................................................................................. 61 Affordable housing ....................................................................................................... 69 Relative affordability of housing tenure options and defining genuinely affordable housing ......................................................................................................................... 70 Concluding comments .................................................................................................. 88 5. Affordable housing need .............................................................................................. 89 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 89 Affordable Housing Needs Assessment ........................................................................ 89 Affordable tenure split ................................................................................................. 93 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 96 6. The needs of different groups ...................................................................................... 98 March 2020 Sunderland SHMA 2020 Page 3 of 208 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 98 Age‐related housing need ............................................................................................ 99 Future need for specialist older person accommodation and residential care provision ................................................................................................................................... 101 Stakeholder views on older persons’ housing ............................................................ 107 Key findings relating to older persons’ housing .......................................................... 107 Health‐related housing need ...................................................................................... 107 Stakeholder views on specialist housing .................................................................... 113 Health related housing need.‐ key findings ................................................................ 113 Life experience‐related housing need – key findings ................................................. 114 Homelessness ............................................................................................................. 114 Cultural heritage related housing need ...................................................................... 116 Other groups with particular housing requirements .................................................. 119 Summary .................................................................................................................... 122 7. Dwelling type and mix ................................................................................................ 124 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 124 Summary of scenarios ................................................................................................ 126 Overall dwelling mix by tenure ................................................................................... 126 Sub‐area analysis ........................................................................................................ 128 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 132 8. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ....................................................................... 133 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 133 Dwelling type, tenure and mix ................................................................................... 133 Meeting the needs of older people and those with disabilities .................................. 134 List of Technical Appendices .................................................................................................. 135 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology ...................................................................... 136 Technical Appendix B: Policy review ...................................................................................... 138 Technical Appendix C: Dwelling type and mix modelling ...................................................... 148 Technical Appendix D: Stakeholder survey ........................................................................... 156 Technical Appendix E: Agent Review ..................................................................................... 171 Technical Appendix F: Affordable housing definitions .......................................................... 175 Technical Appendix G: Specialist housing need review ......................................................... 176 List of Maps Map 1.1 The City of Sunderland geographical context ................................................... 17 Map 3.1 Median house prices 2018 by built‐up areas within the LSOAs of Sunderland and the adjacent authorities ................................................................................... 29 March 2020 Sunderland SHMA 2020 Page 4 of 208 Map 3.2 Lower Quartile house prices 2018 by built‐up areas within the LSOAs of Sunderland and the adjacent authorities ......................................................... 30 Map 3.3 Median real house price percentage change, 2007 to 2018, by built‐up areas within the LSOAs of Sunderland and the adjacent authorities ......................... 31 Map 3.4 Newbuild development in Sunderland 2007‐2018 ........................................... 39 Map 4.1 Predominant dwelling type and size by built‐up areas within LSOAs: Sunderland and adjacent