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Investigation and Prediction of Hurricane Eyewall
INVESTIGATION AND PREDICTION OF HURRICANE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES By Matthew Sitkowski A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON 2012 Date of final oral examination: 4/9/12 The dissertation is approved by the following members of the Final Oral Committee: James P. Kossin, Affiliate Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Daniel J. Vimont, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Steven A. Ackerman, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Jonathan E. Martin, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Gregory J. Tripoli, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences i Abstract Flight-level aircraft data and microwave imagery are analyzed to investigate hurricane secondary eyewall formation and eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). This work is motivated to provide forecasters with new guidance for predicting and better understanding the impacts of ERCs. A Bayesian probabilistic model that determines the likelihood of secondary eyewall formation and a subsequent ERC is developed. The model is based on environmental and geostationary satellite features. A climatology of secondary eyewall formation is developed; a 13% chance of secondary eyewall formation exists when a hurricane is located over water, and is also utilized by the model. The model has been installed at the National Hurricane Center and has skill in forecasting secondary eyewall formation out to 48 h. Aircraft reconnaissance data from 24 ERCs are examined to develop a climatology of flight-level structure and intensity changes associated with ERCs. Three phases are identified based on the behavior of the maximum intensity of the hurricane: intensification, weakening and reintensification. -
The Operational Challenges of Forecasting TC Intensity Change in the Presence of Dry Air and Strong Vertical Shear
The Operational Challenges of Forecasting TC Intensity Change in the Presence of Dry Air and Strong Vertical Shear Jamie R. Rhome,* and Richard D. Knabb NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL 1. INTRODUCTION to an incomplete specification of the initial moisture conditions, dynamical model forecasts of middle- to Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes involve upper-tropospheric humidity often have large errors. complex interactions between many environmental Beyond the problems with observing and forecasting factors, including vertical wind shear and the humidity, TC intensity forecasts become particularly thermodynamic properties of the ambient atmosphere challenging when dry air is accompanied by moderate to and ocean. While the effects of each factor are not strong vertical shear. completely understood, even less is known about the Much of the current understanding on the response effects of these factors working in tandem. Emanuel et of a TC to vertical shear comes from idealized studies. It al. (2004) proposed that “storm intensity in a sheared has been shown that strong vertical shear typically results environment is sensitive to the ambient humidity” and in the convective pattern of the TC becoming cautioned “against considering the various environmental increasingly asymmetric followed by a downshear tilt of influences on storm intensity as operating independently the vortex (Frank and Ritchie 2001, Bender 1997). To from each other.” Along these lines, Dunion and Velden keep the tilted TC vortex quasi-balanced, the (2004) have examined the combined effects of vertical diabatically-driven secondary circulation aligns itself to shear and dry air on TCs during interactions with the produce an asymmetry in vertical motion that favors Saharan Air Layer (SAL). -
Richmond, VA Hurricanes
Hurricanes Influencing the Richmond Area Why should residents of the Middle Atlantic states be concerned about hurricanes during the coming hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30? After all, the big ones don't seem to affect the region anymore. Consider the following: The last Category 2 hurricane to make landfall along the U.S. East Coast, north of Florida, was Isabel in 2003. The last Category 3 was Fran in 1996, and the last Category 4 was Hugo in 1989. Meanwhile, ten Category 2 or stronger storms have made landfall along the Gulf Coast between 2004 and 2008. Hurricane history suggests that the Mid-Atlantic's seeming immunity will change as soon as 2009. Hurricane Alley shifts. Past active hurricane cycles, typically lasting 25 to 30 years, have brought many destructive storms to the region, particularly to shore areas. Never before have so many people and so much property been at risk. Extensive coastal development and a rising sea make for increased vulnerability. A storm like the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, a powerful Category 3, would savage shorelines from North Carolina to New England. History suggests that such an event is due. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 came ashore in North Carolina as a Category 4 to directly slam the Mid-Atlantic region. It swirled hurricane-force winds along an interior track of 700 miles, through the Northeast and into Canada. More than 100 people died. Hazel-type wind events occur about every 50 years. Areas north of Florida are particularly susceptible to wind damage. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
Service Assessment Hurricane Irene, August
Service Assessment Hurricane Irene, August 21–30, 2011 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland Cover Photographs: Top Left - NOAA GOES 13 visible image of Hurricane Irene taken at 12:32 UTC (8:32 a.m. EDT) on August 27, 2011, as it was moving northward along the east coast. Map of total storm rainfall for Hurricane Irene (NCEP/HPC) overlaid with photos of Hurricane Irene’s impacts. Clockwise from top right: • Damage to bridge over the Pemigewasset River/East Branch in Lincoln, NH (NH DOT) • Trees across road and utility lines in Guilford, CT (CT DEP) • Damage to homes from storm surge at Cosey Beach, East Haven, CT (CT DEP) • Flooding of Delaware River closes Rt. 29 in Trenton, NJ (State of New Jersey, Office of the Governor) • Damage from storm surge on North Carolina’s Outer Banks (USGS) • Damage to home from an EF1 tornado in Lewes, DE (Sussex County, DE EOC) • River flooding on Schoharie Creek near Lexington, NY (USGS) • Flood damage to historic covered bridge and road in Quechee, VT (FEMA) ii Service Assessment Hurricane Irene, August 21–30, 2011 September 2012 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Administrator National Weather Service Laura Furgione, Acting Assistant Administrator for Weather Services iii Preface On August 21-29, 2011, Hurricane Irene left a devastating imprint on the Caribbean and U.S. East Coast. The storm took the lives of more than 40 people, caused an estimated $6.5 billion in damages, unleashed major flooding, downed trees and power lines, and forced road closures, evacuations, and major rescue efforts. -
A Flood in a Small Community a Test of the National Planning Frameworks
CENTER ON LABOR, HUM AN SERVICES, AND POP ULATION BRIEF A Flood in a Small Community A Test of the National Planning Frameworks Vera Brusentsev DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, SWARTHMORE COLLEGE Wayne Vroman URBAN INSTITUTE May 2015 On August 28, 2011, the Village of Schoharie in upstate New York was flooded with water from nearby Schoharie Creek and its tributary stream, Fox Creek. This widespread, devastating flooding caused by Hurricane Irene was unprecedented. The entire main street and surrounding residential streets were inundated with water that flooded basements and reached halfway up the first floors of buildings. Homes, agriculture, businesses, cultural and natural resources, and public infrastructure in this village of about 1,000 residents were destroyed. Just one week later, Schoharie sustained further damage from Tropical Storm Lee. The recovery from this severe devastation effort will continue for many years. This brief assesses the National Planning Frameworks in Schoharie.1 It considers the village’s level of preparedness for the particularly severe flooding events of 2011, examines the effectiveness of the emergency response systems and various recovery programs, and discusses the challenges of planning for increased resilience to future extreme weather events. This analysis is necessarily incomplete because recovery activities are still under way in Schoharie and strategies to enhance resilience to future flooding are still being planned and implemented. Still, the challenges that Schoharie faced when planning and responding to a catastrophic incident could apply to any number of small communities in the United States.2 Natural Disasters in the United States Since 2000 the United States has experienced approximately 60 major natural disasters—droughts, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and winter storms—a year. -
The Fare Box
,,,IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII111111III11111III .11111111 THE.I .1111.l FARE1 IIIIIIIIIIIII I BOXI 111111111111 .1 .11 .1 .1 . .1 .1111111111,,,11,1 A monthly News-hotter for Transportation Token Collectors 11111111111111111111111 . 111111.I. .IIII 111111 .11111111 II . .IIIIII .. .. .i111111111111IIIIIII. ..1 al .i all1111111111111111111111111111111 . .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. ..... .. .... ..... .. .. .. ... NEW ISSUES EDITOR EDITOR $flH'HI NI11raliHiIt J JR; 634 ~Ashbury Street . jiL COFFEE, P. g. 4ox 1204 ,San Francisco, ~california 94117 (4oston, 14assachusetts 02104 Now Issues Service Parking Tokens jOI-I]V t. NICOLO$I$ DWINU I;. RFII$kfie 3002 ;Galindo Street P. 0. Box 1302 Oakland, (California 94601 Los Altos, California 94022 Volume 33, Plumber 1 JANUARY, 1979 Our379thIssue WALTER J. STUCKE and CLARENCE E . ZIEGLER We begin another year with an unhappy note . Walter J. Stucke, AVA #1616, of Chicago, joined us in 1976 . He was already retired at that time . I did not know him well, but his brief tenure with us resulted in some interesting correspondence, and I shall miss him, as will all of the Chicago members . He died last October at age 64 . Clarence Ziegler, AVA #1598, of' Port Huron, Michigan, also joined in 1976 . Clarence was a very active collector of all manner of tokens, and his frequent full page auc- tions in TANS JOURNAL are familiar to most of us . Ibny are the phone conversations I had with him, and more the letters I received from him . 1- could always count on re- ports of real estate tokens, taxicab charge coins, as well as other types of tokens in which I had an interest . His was a vital presence and a dear friendship . -
Layout 1 (Page 6)
Hurricane History in North Carolina ashore. Dennis made landfall just below hurricane strength nine inches THE EXPRESS • November 29, 2017 • Page 6 at Cape Lookout on Sept. 4. The storm then moved of rain on the capitol city. Major wind damage and flood- North Carolina is especially at risk of a hurricane hitting through eastern and central North Carolina. It dumped 10 ing were reported along the North Carolina coast. Major the state. Below is a list of tropical storms and hurricanes to 15 inches of rain, causing a lot of flooding in southeastern damage was reported inland through Raleigh. Damages that have caused problems in the state in recent years. North Carolina. Because the storm had stayed off the coast topped $5 billion. Thirty-seven people died from Fran. 2011 Hurricane Irene – August 27. Hurricane Irene for many days, there was a lot of beach erosion and damage 1993 Hurricane Emily - August 31. Hurricane Emily made landfall near Cape Lookout as a Category 1. It to coastal highways. Residents of Hatteras and Ocracoke Is- came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane, but the 30-mile- brought two to four feet of storm surge along parts of the lands were stranded for many days due to damage to High- wide eye stayed just offshore of Cape Hatteras. Damage Outer Banks and up to 15 feet along parts of the Pamlico way 12. Two traffic deaths were credited to the storm. estimates were nearly $13 million. No lives were lost. Sound. Irene caused seven deaths and prompted more • Hurricane Floyd - September 16. -
Tropical Storm Irene: a Retrospective on Mental and Emotional Impacts on Vermont Communities, Three Years Later
Tropical Storm Irene: A Retrospective on Mental and Emotional Impacts on Vermont Communities, Three Years Later Victoria Buschman, Caroline Fernandes, Sarah Guth, Anna Mullen, Piper Rosales-Underbrink Environmental Studies Senior Capstone Seminar, Fall 2014 In cooperation with the Vermont Department of Health Professor Rebecca Kneale Gould and Diane Munroe December 15, 2014 Table of Contents Acknowledgements (2) Introduction (3) Our Study (5) Tropical Storm Irene (6) Geography and Geology of Rochester (9) Rochester, Vermont and Tropical Storm Irene (11) Research on Emotional Health and Climate Change (14) Existing Narratives of Tropical Storm Irene (16) Methods (18) Findings and Discussion (20) Surveys Results (20) General Demographics and Experiences (20) Emotional Impacts (24) Preventative Measures (28) General Conclusions from Surveys (29) Interview Results: A Discussion of Themes and Case Studies (31) Spectrum of Emotions, Three Years Later (31) Climate Justice and Differential Impacts: Physical and Emotional (32) Case Study 1: Ben (high school student): The Emotional Spectrum Within an Individual (35) Case Study 2: Elementary Students Share Their Stories (36) Imaginative Resilience of Children (39) Trauma and Recovery (40) Case Study 3: Sue Johansen and Family (42) Connectivity: Local and Global (43) Case Study 4: Berry Farmer Rob Meadows (45) Feeling Forgotten (46) Exacerbating Existing Stresses (49) Climate Change and Framing (50) Power of Collective Suffering (53) Recommendations and Conclusion (55) Recommendations (55) Conclusion (59) Bibliography (61) Works Consulted (61) Personal Interviews (65) Appendix A: Survey (67) 1 Acknowledgements We heard from 82 people of the Rochester, Waterbury, Hancock, Granville, and Bethel communities; they took our survey, shared their stories with us, passed along useful contacts and books, and welcomed us into their homes. -
2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ANNUAL SUMMARY 2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON Richard J. Pasch 1 May 2015 NASA MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 1745 UTC 16 OCTOBER 2014 ABSTRACT The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was below average in several respects. Although the number of hurricanes, six, equaled the long-term average, there were two major hurricanes (category 3 or higher intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) and eight named storms, compared to the long- term averages of three and 12, respectively. The NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is a measure of the strength and duration of (sub)tropical storms and hurricanes, was about 72% of the long-term median. Although most of the tropical cyclone activity occurred well east of the east coast of the United States, Hurricane Arthur made landfall on the North Carolina coast in July. Bermuda was hit by two hurricanes, Fay and Gonzalo, in less than a week’s time in October. 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season 2 OVERVIEW Tropical cyclone activity was somewhat below average in the Atlantic basin during 2014. Eight tropical storms formed, of which six became hurricanes, and two intensified into major hurricanes. In comparison the long-term (1981-2010) averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for 2014 was 72% of the long-term median. While most land areas were spared from tropical cyclones in 2014, Hurricane Arthur made landfall on the North Carolina coast, and Bermuda was struck by Hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo within a six-day period.