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Observed Hurricane Wind Speed Asymmetries and Relationships to Motion and Environmental Shear
1290 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 142 Observed Hurricane Wind Speed Asymmetries and Relationships to Motion and Environmental Shear ERIC W. UHLHORN NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida BRADLEY W. KLOTZ Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida TOMISLAVA VUKICEVIC,PAUL D. REASOR, AND ROBERT F. ROGERS NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 6 June 2013, in final form 19 November 2013) ABSTRACT Wavenumber-1 wind speed asymmetries in 35 hurricanes are quantified in terms of their amplitude and phase, based on aircraft observations from 128 individual flights between 1998 and 2011. The impacts of motion and 850–200-mb environmental vertical shear are examined separately to estimate the resulting asymmetric structures at the sea surface and standard 700-mb reconnaissance flight level. The surface asymmetry amplitude is on average around 50% smaller than found at flight level, and while the asymmetry amplitude grows in proportion to storm translation speed at the flight level, no significant growth at the surface is observed, contrary to conventional assumption. However, a significant upwind storm-motion- relative phase rotation is found at the surface as translation speed increases, while the flight-level phase remains fairly constant. After removing the estimated impact of storm motion on the asymmetry, a significant residual shear direction-relative asymmetry is found, particularly at the surface, and, on average, is located downshear to the left of shear. Furthermore, the shear-relative phase has a significant downwind rotation as shear magnitude increases, such that the maximum rotates from the downshear to left-of-shear azimuthal location. -
REPORT of the 46Th MEETING
REPORT OF THE 46th MEETING ARCADIA, CALIFORNIA NOVEMBER 27-29, 2012 2012 NAFC-FMWG Minutes Minutes of the 46th Annual Meeting of the North American Forest Commission – Fire Management Working Group Arcadia, California, USA Angeles National Forest Conference Room November 27-29, 2012 Tuesday November 27th, 2012 Hosted by the US Forest Service 1. Welcome Meeting called to order by Dale Dague of the US Forest Service, who welcomed everyone on behalf of the North American Forest Commission, thanked them for their attendance, and introduced Angeles National Forest Fire Management Officer James Hall. James Hall, Fire Management Officer, US Forest Service Angeles National Forest expressed his pleasure at having this group on the Angeles National Forest as the inaugural meeting in the newly remodeled training facility located at the Angeles National Forest Headquarters. 2. Introductions Roundtable introductions completed (see Appendix 1 for list of delegates in attendance) and Dale Dague conducted a review of the agenda and meeting logistics. 3. Meeting Overview Tuesday, November 27/13 Country Reports – Mexico, Canada, USA Review of 2011 FMWG meeting minutes CONANP Membership Proposal FMWG Charter Review Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation NAFC website proposal Review FMWG Work Plan and Action Items Hurricane Sandy Report International Liaison Committee (ILC) Update 6th International Wildland Fire Conference Update Wednesday, November 28/13 Field Trip to the Station Fire, Angeles National Forest Banquet for meeting delegates Thursday, November 29/13 Texas Wildfires of 2011 Forest Fire Managers Group (FFMG Update NAFC Update Travel to San Dimas Technology and Development Center (SDTDC) Tour of SDTDC Bilateral Wildfire Agreements update ICS Glossary Update (French Translation) Page 1 of 62 2012 NAFC-FMWG Minutes 4. -
Hurricane Outer Rainband Mesovortices
Presented at the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, May 31 2000 EXAMINING THE PRE-LANDFALL ENVIRONMENT OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN A HURRICANE BONNIE (1998) OUTER RAINBAND 1 2 2 1 Scott M. Spratt , Frank D. Marks , Peter P. Dodge , and David W. Sharp 1 NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Melbourne, FL 2 NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 1. INTRODUCTION Tropical Cyclone (TC) tornado environments have been studied for many decades through composite analyses of proximity soundings (e.g. Novlan and Gray 1974; McCaul 1986). More recently, airborne and ground-based Doppler radar investigations of TC rainband-embedded mesocyclones have advanced the understanding of tornadic cell lifecycles (Black and Marks 1991; Spratt et al. 1997). This paper will document the first known dropwindsonde deployments immediately adjacent to a family of TC outer rainband mesocyclones, and will examine the thermodynamic and wind profiles retrieved from the marine environment. A companion paper (Dodge et al. 2000) discusses dual-Doppler analyses of these mesovortices. On 26 August 1998, TC Bonnie made landfall as a category two hurricane along the North Carolina coast. Prior to landfall, two National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division (HRD) aircraft conducted surveillance missions offshore the Carolina coast. While performing these missions near altitudes of 3.5 and 2.1 km, both aircraft were required to deviate around intense cells within a dominant outer rainband, 165 to 195 km northeast of the TC center. On-board radars detected apparent mini-supercell signatures associated with several of the convective cells along the band. -
2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review
2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review WHITEPAPER Executive Summary The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a quiet season, closing with eight 2014 marks the named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or longest period on stronger). record – nine Forecast groups predicted that the formation of El Niño and below consecutive years average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main – that no major Development Region (MDR)1 through the season would inhibit hurricanes made development in 2014, leading to a below average season. While 2014 landfall over the was indeed quiet, these predictions didn’t materialize. U.S. The scientific community has attributed the low activity in 2014 to a number of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, predominantly anomalously low Atlantic mid-level moisture, anomalously high tropical Atlantic subsidence (sinking air) in the Main Development Region (MDR), and strong wind shear across the Caribbean. Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin was also influenced by below average activity in the 2014 West African monsoon season, which suppressed the development of African easterly winds. The year 2014 marks the longest period on record – nine consecutive years since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 – that no major hurricanes made landfall over the U.S., and also the ninth consecutive year that no hurricane made landfall over the coastline of Florida. The U.S. experienced only one landfalling hurricane in 2014, Hurricane Arthur. Arthur made landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane on July 4, causing minor damage. While Mexico and Central America were impacted by two landfalling storms and the Caribbean by three, Bermuda suffered the most substantial damage due to landfalling storms in 2014.Hurricane Fay and Major Hurricane Gonzalo made landfall on the island within a week of each other, on October 12 and October 18, respectively. -
2021 Rio Grande Valley/Deep S. Texas Hurricane Guide
The Official Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas HURRICANE GUIDE 2021 IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM! weather.gov/rgv A Letter to Residents After more than a decade of near-misses, 2020 reminded the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas that hurricanes are still a force to be reckoned with. Hurricane Hanna cut a swath from Padre Island National Seashore in Kenedy County through much of the Rio Grande Valley in late July, leaving nearly $1 billion in agricultural and property damage it its wake. While many may now think that we’ve paid our dues, that sentiment couldn’t be further from the truth! The combination of atmospheric and oceanic patterns favorable for a landfalling hurricane in the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas region can occur in any season, including this one. Residents can use the experience of Hurricane Hanna in 2020 as a great reminder to be prepared in 2021. Hurricanes bring a multitude of hazards including flooding rain, damaging winds, deadly storm surge, and tornadoes. These destructive forces can displace you from your home for months or years, and there are many recent cases in the United States and territories where this has occurred. Hurricane Harvey (2017), Michael (2018, Florida Panhandle), and Laura (2020, southwest Louisiana) are just three such devastating events. This guide can help you and your family get prepared. Learn what to do before, during and after a storm. Your plan should include preparations for your home or business, gathering supplies, ensuring your insurance is up to date, and planning with your family for an evacuation. -
The Rio Grande River Floods the National Butterfly Center
Jeffrey Glassberg Jeffrey The Rio Grande River Floods the National Butterfly Center by Pat Wogan 24 American Butterflies,Fall 2010 25 Left: An interpretive kiosk on the south side of the National Butterfly Center, just south of the levy, was destroyed by the Above left: The storm track of flooding. July 19, Hurricane Alex. Color shows 2010. storm intensity with blue indicating a tropical depression, cream a category 1 hurricane and yellow a Jeffrey Glassberg Jeffrey category 2 hurricane. Above right: A satellite photo of Left: Volunteers Hurricane Alex as it made landfall. constructing the same interpretive Right: A map of the Rio Grande kiosk in 2009. Watershed in extreme southern One can estimate Texas and northeastern Mexico. the depth of the flooding water Overleaf: A view of the southern at this point by portion of the National Butterfly comparing the two Center on July 19, 2010. photos. It looks to be about five and one-half feet. In late June, 2010, Tropical Depression Although the hurricane’s high winds Alex formed in the Atlantic. Moving into and heavy rainfall led to immediate damage, the Gulf of Mexico, Alex moved rapidly including flooding on South Padre Island, it toward northeastern Mexico and became was the later effects of the hurricane’s rainfall Hurricane Alex on June 30. Intensifying as that caused more serious problems in south it approached land, the storm made landfall Texas. rise. Then came Alex. On July 15, 2010, Within a few days, it became clear that the near Soto la Marina in the state of Tamaulipas, The Rio Grande River Watershed, the life water levels at Falcon Reservoir, about 50 capacity of the floodway was less than was Mexico with sustained winds of more than 100 blood of extreme south Texas, drains only miles northwest of the National Butterfly needed. -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
Investigation and Prediction of Hurricane Eyewall
INVESTIGATION AND PREDICTION OF HURRICANE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES By Matthew Sitkowski A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON 2012 Date of final oral examination: 4/9/12 The dissertation is approved by the following members of the Final Oral Committee: James P. Kossin, Affiliate Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Daniel J. Vimont, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Steven A. Ackerman, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Jonathan E. Martin, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Gregory J. Tripoli, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences i Abstract Flight-level aircraft data and microwave imagery are analyzed to investigate hurricane secondary eyewall formation and eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). This work is motivated to provide forecasters with new guidance for predicting and better understanding the impacts of ERCs. A Bayesian probabilistic model that determines the likelihood of secondary eyewall formation and a subsequent ERC is developed. The model is based on environmental and geostationary satellite features. A climatology of secondary eyewall formation is developed; a 13% chance of secondary eyewall formation exists when a hurricane is located over water, and is also utilized by the model. The model has been installed at the National Hurricane Center and has skill in forecasting secondary eyewall formation out to 48 h. Aircraft reconnaissance data from 24 ERCs are examined to develop a climatology of flight-level structure and intensity changes associated with ERCs. Three phases are identified based on the behavior of the maximum intensity of the hurricane: intensification, weakening and reintensification. -
CONGRESSIONAL RECORD— Extensions of Remarks E1745 HON
September 24, 2010 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — Extensions of Remarks E1745 HONORING SUE PALKA It is important to recognize ways in which September 30, at the peak of hurricane sea- average investors of all ages and income lev- son. Madam Speaker, distinguished col- HON. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN els can access the same benefits as large real leagues, I ask you today to join me in passing OF MARYLAND estate investors. I stand with my colleague in this bill. However, we must dedicate ourselves IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES commending the 50th anniversary of Real Es- to finding a permanent solution for those tate Investment Trusts, and 50 years of pro- Americans adversely affected by flooding. The Friday, September 24, 2010 viding a broad range of investors an oppor- people of my district need a long-term exten- Mr. VAN HOLLEN. Madam Speaker, on tunity to achieve the investment goals of diver- sion of the flood insurance program—and they Monday, September 27, 2010, one of my con- sification, strong and reliable dividends, liquid- need to know that the flood insurance program stituents will be celebrating 25 years of out- ity, solid performance, and transparency. will always be there for them. While we are standing service to the Washington, DC met- f working to mitigate the damage caused by ropolitan region. floods, this program remains essential for NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE WTTG Fox 5 News weather forecaster Sue those tragic times when nature takes over. PROGRAM REEXTENSION ACT OF Palka has been bringing Washingtonians their With homes in my district and in every flood- 2010 weather reports for decades. -
The Operational Challenges of Forecasting TC Intensity Change in the Presence of Dry Air and Strong Vertical Shear
The Operational Challenges of Forecasting TC Intensity Change in the Presence of Dry Air and Strong Vertical Shear Jamie R. Rhome,* and Richard D. Knabb NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL 1. INTRODUCTION to an incomplete specification of the initial moisture conditions, dynamical model forecasts of middle- to Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes involve upper-tropospheric humidity often have large errors. complex interactions between many environmental Beyond the problems with observing and forecasting factors, including vertical wind shear and the humidity, TC intensity forecasts become particularly thermodynamic properties of the ambient atmosphere challenging when dry air is accompanied by moderate to and ocean. While the effects of each factor are not strong vertical shear. completely understood, even less is known about the Much of the current understanding on the response effects of these factors working in tandem. Emanuel et of a TC to vertical shear comes from idealized studies. It al. (2004) proposed that “storm intensity in a sheared has been shown that strong vertical shear typically results environment is sensitive to the ambient humidity” and in the convective pattern of the TC becoming cautioned “against considering the various environmental increasingly asymmetric followed by a downshear tilt of influences on storm intensity as operating independently the vortex (Frank and Ritchie 2001, Bender 1997). To from each other.” Along these lines, Dunion and Velden keep the tilted TC vortex quasi-balanced, the (2004) have examined the combined effects of vertical diabatically-driven secondary circulation aligns itself to shear and dry air on TCs during interactions with the produce an asymmetry in vertical motion that favors Saharan Air Layer (SAL). -
Economic Costs of Hurricane Alex in Nuevo León, Mexico David
Economic costs of hurricane Alex in Nuevo León, Mexico David Mendoza Tinoco,a Alba Verónica Méndez Delgado b and Alfonso Mercado Garcíaa a The College of Mexico, Mexico, b Autonomous University of Coahuila, Mexico. Email addresses: [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected], respectively. Date received: August 29, 2018. Date accepted: February 4, 2019. Abstract The periodic heavy flooding which Mexico experiences impacts negatively on its economic development. Adaptation and risk-management measures are predominantly based on cost evaluation, which therefore needs to be comprehensive. This paper evaluates the total economic cost of Hurricane Alex in the state of Nuevo León in 2010, which was the most devastating natural phenomenon recorded during the last 50 years. Therefore, for the first time in Mexico, a methodology was applied which factors in both direct costs (material damage) and indirect costs (productivity losses) in the affected region’s economy (MIP). This methodology was based on the input-output model. The results suggest that total costs were $20.5 billion MXN, of which 29% (6 billion) were indirect costs. Keywords: natural disasters; indirect costs; risk management; tropical cyclones; input- output model. 1. INTRODUCTION During the past few years, the intensity and frequency of hydrometeorological natural disasters have increased as a consequence of climate change1 . Among these natural disasters, those that affect Mexico most are tropical cyclones and consequent extreme flooding2 . The hydrographic characteristics and geographic distribution of large urban agglomerations increases the country’s vulnerability in the face of these natural phenomena. In recent years calculations have been disseminated regarding Mexico’s vulnerability to hydrometeorological events. -
Richmond, VA Hurricanes
Hurricanes Influencing the Richmond Area Why should residents of the Middle Atlantic states be concerned about hurricanes during the coming hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30? After all, the big ones don't seem to affect the region anymore. Consider the following: The last Category 2 hurricane to make landfall along the U.S. East Coast, north of Florida, was Isabel in 2003. The last Category 3 was Fran in 1996, and the last Category 4 was Hugo in 1989. Meanwhile, ten Category 2 or stronger storms have made landfall along the Gulf Coast between 2004 and 2008. Hurricane history suggests that the Mid-Atlantic's seeming immunity will change as soon as 2009. Hurricane Alley shifts. Past active hurricane cycles, typically lasting 25 to 30 years, have brought many destructive storms to the region, particularly to shore areas. Never before have so many people and so much property been at risk. Extensive coastal development and a rising sea make for increased vulnerability. A storm like the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, a powerful Category 3, would savage shorelines from North Carolina to New England. History suggests that such an event is due. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 came ashore in North Carolina as a Category 4 to directly slam the Mid-Atlantic region. It swirled hurricane-force winds along an interior track of 700 miles, through the Northeast and into Canada. More than 100 people died. Hazel-type wind events occur about every 50 years. Areas north of Florida are particularly susceptible to wind damage.