Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study

Final Report Parks and Wildlife Service 23 July 2021 (version 14)

© SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd 2021

This report has been prepared for the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service. SGS Economics and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 www.sgsep.com.au Offices in Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, and Sydney, on Ngunnawal, muwinina, Wurundjeri, and Gadigal Country.

Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study

Contents

1 THIS DOCUMENT ...... 9 2 PROJECT CONTEXT ...... 10 2.1 Project stages ...... 10 2.2 Feasibility Study scope...... 11 2.3 Identifying feasible options ...... 12 2.4 Key report inputs ...... 12 3 FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY OF FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATION ...... 15 3.1 Summary of findings ...... 15 3.2 Recommendation ...... 17 4 PROJECT INFORMATION ...... 18 4.1 Project title ...... 18 4.2 Project sponsor...... 18 4.3 Project description ...... 18 4.4 Comparison of options leading to a recommendation ...... 25 5 PROJECT JUSTIFICATION ...... 27 5.1 Project goal...... 27 5.2 Location ...... 27 5.3 Definition of the ‘problem’, or case for change ...... 27 5.4 Existing market demand ...... 31 5.5 Walk options ...... 35 5.6 Development of the options ...... 41 5.7 Market testing summary ...... 42 5.8 West Coast community testing of the walk options ...... 44 5.9 Engagement with the Tasmanian Aboriginal community ...... 47 5.10 Rapid engagement with walking sector providers ...... 48 5.11 Estimate of likely visitation per year for each option ...... 49 5.12 Project constraints...... 51 5.13 Project benefits and outcomes ...... 52 5.14 Links to government policy priorities ...... 55 5.15 Prioritisation and direct links to strategic asset management ...... 55 6 RISKS AND DEPENDENCIES ...... 56

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6.1 Risks ...... 56 6.2 Technical standards and legislative requirements ...... 63 6.3 External conditions and critical success factors ...... 63 7 PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION ...... 66 7.1 Implementation strategy ...... 66 7.2 Organisational change ...... 67 7.3 Resources ...... 67 7.4 Stakeholder analysis ...... 67 7.5 Stakeholder management ...... 71 8 MARKETS ...... 72 8.1 Market research ...... 72 9 TENDER ...... 75 10 TIMEFRAME ...... 76 11 COSTS AND BENEFITS ...... 78 11.1 Capital cost (planning and construction) ...... 78 11.2 Recurrent costs...... 79 11.3 Funding sources ...... 81 11.4 Operational options ...... 82 11.5 Commercial and community opportunities ...... 83 11.6 Cost-benefit analysis ...... 85 11.7 Costs ...... 89 11.8 Revenues ...... 91 11.9 Economic impact analysis ...... 104 12 ACHIEVEMENT OF PROJECT SUCCESS ...... 112 13 APPENDICES ...... 114 13.1 Community survey results ...... 114 13.2 Engagement with walking service providers ...... 142 13.3 The current multi-day walker market ...... 152 13.4 Next Iconic Walk visitor experience statements ...... 159 13.5 Track Option 1 map ...... 170 13.6 Track Option 2 map ...... 172 13.7 Benchmark track maps ...... 174 13.8 Part and full-day upgrade options ...... 178

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14 REFERENCES ...... 193

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Figures

FIGURE 1: NEXT ICONIC WALK PROJECT STAGES 10 FIGURE 2: FEASIBILITY STUDY SCOPE 11 FIGURE 3: OPTIONS TESTING AND IDENTIFICATION 12 FIGURE 4: LABOUR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 29 FIGURE 5: GRP OF THE WEST COAST* BY INDUSTRY – 2013 AND 2019 30 FIGURE 6: GRP OF THE WEST COAST BY INDUSTRY, EXCLUDING MINING – 2013 AND 2019 31 FIGURE 7: PROPOSED ACCOMMODATION SITE IN OPTION 1: LAKE HUNTLEY 36 FIGURE 8: PROPOSED ACCOMMODATION SITE IN OPTION 1: MT GEIKIE 37 FIGURE 9: LAKE MARGARET POWER STATION AND SURROUNDING VILLAGE 37 FIGURE 10: WALKER SEGMENTATION MATRIX: NEXT ICONIC WALK 38 FIGURE 11: LOCATIONS CONSIDERED FOR TASMANIA’S NEXT ICONIC WALK 41 FIGURE 12: SPLIT OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS 45 FIGURE 13: GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE 66 FIGURE 14: VISITOR JOURNEY 83 FIGURE 15: CBA METHODOLOGY 85 FIGURE 16: GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF CONSUMER SURPLUS 93 FIGURE 17: PROJECT IMPACT: OUTPUT ($M) (2024-44) 109 FIGURE 18: PROJECT IMPACT: VALUE-ADDED ($M) 109 FIGURE 19: PROJECT IMPACT: EMPLOYMENT (FTE) 110 FIGURE 20: QUESTION 2 - SPLIT OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS 114 FIGURE 21: EXISTING ACCESS BY RESPONDENT TYPE 115 FIGURE 22: EXISTING FREQUENCY BY RESPONDENT TYPE 115 FIGURE 23: EXISTING WALK TYPES BY RESPONDENT TYPE 116 FIGURE 24: RATING OF ACCESSIBILITY BY RESPONDENT TYPE 117 FIGURE 25: OVERALL USE OF PROPOSED WALKING OPTIONS BY RESPONDENT TYPE 120 FIGURE 26: USE OF PROPOSED WALKS (WEST COAST RESIDENTS) 120 FIGURE 27: USE OF PROPOSED WALK OPTIONS (VISITORS) 121 FIGURE 28: PARTICIPATION OF GROUPS BY RESPONDENT TYPE 121 FIGURE 29: LEVEL OF SUPPORT BY WALK OPTIONS AND RESPONDENT TYPE 125 FIGURE 30: LIKELIHOOD TO ATTRACT ADDITIONAL VISITORS 127 FIGURE 31: BUSINESSES THAT MAY BE IMPACTED FROM NIW BY RESPONDENT TYPE 133 FIGURE 32: LOCATIONS OF BUSINESSES BY RESPONDENT TYPES 134 FIGURE 33: EXTENT OF EXPECTED BUSINESS IMPACT BY VISIT 134

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Tables

TABLE 1: SUMMARY OF OPTIONS TESTED 22 TABLE 2: STRAHAN AND QUEENSTOWN VISITATION IN 2018 28 TABLE 3: NUMBER AND LOCATION OF MULTI-DAY WALKS DONE OR PLANNED BY 814 RESPONDENTS 32 TABLE 4: OPTIONS ALIGNMENT WITH WALKER SEGMENTS 39 TABLE 5: WALKER SEGMENTATION PROFILES: NEXT ICONIC WALK 40 TABLE 6: RESPONSES TO LEVEL OF SUPPORT 44 TABLE 7: RESPONSES TO LEVEL OF SUPPORT QUESTION 46 TABLE 8: SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED VISITATION 51 TABLE 9: COSTS AND BENEFITS 53 TABLE 10: RISK EXPOSURE FRAMEWORK 56 TABLE 11: RISK MATRIX 58 TABLE 12: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS 65 TABLE 13: STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS MATRIX 69 TABLE 14: TIMELINES FOR OPTION 1 76 TABLE 15: TIMELINES FOR OPTION 2 77 TABLE 16: TIMELINES FOR THE BENCHMARK 77 TABLE 17: CAPITAL COSTS FOR EACH OPTION: LOW, MEDIUM AND HIGH SCENARIOS 79 TABLE 18: RECURRENT COSTS FOR EACH OPTION: WALK COST AT 100% CAPACITY VS 70% CAPACITY 79 TABLE 19: TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS BY WALK OPTION (2028) 80 TABLE 20: DIRECT FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT STAFF INCLUDED IN OPERATING COSTS (2028) 80 TABLE 21: SPLIT OF VISITATION BY SOURCE, ROOFED ACCOMMODATION AND CAMPSITES 87 TABLE 22: ESTIMATE OF VISITOR NUMBERS 88 TABLE 23: COSTS AND BENEFITS 89 TABLE 24: SUMMARY OF CAPITAL COSTS 90 TABLE 25: SUMMARY OF ANNUAL ONGOING COSTS (2024 PRICES) 90 TABLE 26: SUMMARY OF ANNUAL REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS (2024 PRICES) 91 TABLE 27: PROPORTION OF VISITORS FOR WHOM THE TRACK IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF VISITATION 92 TABLE 28: HOURS WALKED ASSUMPTIONS, PER VISITOR 94 TABLE 29: EDUCATIONAL BENEFIT PARAMETERS 95 TABLE 30: PRODUCTIVITY UPLIFT FOR PARKS AND GARDENS OPERATIONS WORKERS BY OPTION ...... 95

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TABLE 31: SUMMARY OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS RESULTS (TASMANIAN COMMUNITY) 98 TABLE 32: MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS OF NON-MONETISED BENEFITS 99 TABLE 33: DISTRIBUTION OF BENEFITS FOR OPTION 1 100 TABLE 34: SENSITIVITY TEST SUMMARY 101 TABLE 35: SENSITIVITY TEST FINDINGS 101 TABLE 36: SUMMARY OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS RESULTS (WEST COAST COMMUNITY) 104 TABLE 37: CONSTRUCTION PHASE IMPACTS 107 TABLE 38: ONGOING ECONOMIC IMPACTS 108 TABLE 39: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS LINKED TO KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 112 TABLE 40: SUMMARY OF QUESTION 7 RESPONSES 117 TABLE 41: ELEMENTS TO INCLUDE IN THE MULTI-DAY WALKS 122 TABLE 42: ELEMENTS TO INCLUDE IN THE DAY WALKS 124 TABLE 43: RESPONSES TO LEVEL OF SUPPORT 126 TABLE 44: RESPONSES ABOUT ADDITIONAL VISITORS 127 TABLE 45: POTENTIAL POSITIVE IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES 128 TABLE 46: STRATEGIES TO STRENGTHEN POSITIVE IMPACTS 129 TABLE 47: POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES 130 TABLE 48: STRATEGIES TO MINIMISE NEGATIVE IMPACTS 132 TABLE 49: POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES 135 TABLE 50: OPPORTUNITIES FOR CURRENT BUSINESSES FROM NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES136 TABLE 51: OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE BUSINESSES FROM NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES 137 TABLE 52: POTENTIAL BARRIERS FOR LOCAL, EXISTING OR FUTURE BUSINESSES 137 TABLE 53: POTENTIAL POSITIVE IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES 138 TABLE 54: COVID-19 IMPACTS ON THE AUSTRALIAN TOURISM MARKET 139 TABLE 55: CAPITALISING ON IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES 140 TABLE 56: MAXIMISING BENEFIT WITH RESTRICTED TRAVEL 141 TABLE 57: QUANTITY AND LOCATION OF MULTI-DAY WALK ACTIVITY 154

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1 THIS DOCUMENT

This document:

• reports on the feasibility of developing Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk • recommends options the Tasmanian Government could proceed with.

This document summarises the research, consultation, studies, and analysis contained in more detailed documents.

The scope of research included understanding the West Coast’s communities, economy, geography, climate, landscapes, history, and connections with the broader Tasmanian context.

More than 1,900 individuals, and many Tasmanian businesses, have contributed their ideas and thoughts about a new walk, and have provided expert input. The project team and the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service (PWS) would like to thank every contributor for their time and effort.

Visitor research identified why people visit Tasmania, what interests them, and their walking preferences. It tested walking experiences to understand their potential appeal and likely participation if a walk were developed.

Field surveys identified landscape features, possible walking routes, and the ecology of the Tyndall Range, which is so important to protect if a development is to proceed.

Potential benefits, costs and risks were considered.

The Next Iconic Walk will be an intergenerational development and economic legacy for Tasmania and the West Coast. This is why it was important to invest the time up front and study all options to ensure the best walk for Tasmania is delivered.

The document uses a business case structure, starting with summaries and progressing to more detail. For this reason, some information is repeated.

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2 PROJECT CONTEXT

2.1 Project stages

The full development of Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk will consist of the following four stages. As shown, this report represents the work completed to satisfy Stage 1: Feasibility Study.

FIGURE 1: NEXT ICONIC WALK PROJECT STAGES

Stage 1: Feasibility Study •Potential Tasmanian locations and experiences •Detailed Feasibility Study Stage 2: Proposal development •Design visitor experience •Design and document infrastructure •Obtain development approvals •Select partner organisations •Procure construction capability •Design business and operational model Stage 3: Project delivery •Construct infrastructure •Establish business enterprise and operations •Marketing Stage 4: Transition to operation •Complete delivery contracts •Refine business and operational processes

Source: Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service, 2021

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2.2 Feasibility Study scope

The following figure depicts the various tasks and inputs that were completed to develop the Feasibility Study for Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk (this document).

FIGURE 2: FEASIBILITY STUDY SCOPE

Source: Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service, 2021

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2.3 Identifying feasible options

The following table outlines the rigorous process that was undertaken by the PWS to identify and test options for the Next Iconic Walk.

FIGURE 3: OPTIONS TESTING AND IDENTIFICATION

Source: Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service, 2021

2.4 Key report inputs

The following are some of the key reports that informed this Feasibility Study. Note that this list is not exhaustive; other selected inputs are listed in section 14.

Location selection PWS, 2019 Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk: Assessment report July.

Report on the assessment of 35 possible Tasmanian locations for the new walk.

Market testing Instinct and Reason, 2019 Walk: Walker and potential walker research August.

Survey of 512 Australians to identify the walking market for Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk and visitor awareness, intentions, preferences, and demand drivers.

Myriad Research, 2019 Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk: Focus group testing December.

Interviews with multi-day walkers preferring independent and guided walking and camping and roofed accommodation to identify their preferences for pre-walk accommodation, transport, timing,

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seasons, track standard, routes, accommodation standards and facilities, support, services, and – in response to walk options – their booking intentions, fees, and how to improve appeal and respond to barriers.

Myriad Research, 2020 Tasmania’s Next Great Bushwalk: Online survey October.

Survey of 814 Australians to identify the demand profile across five multi-day walk options, including the appeal rating and ranking of each option, likelihood to book, party make-up, response to fees, and influence of the preferred option and day walks (a separate option) on regional visitation. The survey provided a respondent profile, including age, gender, residence location, previous and planned multi-day walk experiences, and preferences for level of independence and accommodation.

BDA Marketing Planning, 2021 Western Tasmania Walking Research April.

Survey of 442 Australians to identify the appeal of two walk options: a return overnight walk and regional day walks using town accommodation.

Environment PWS, 2020 Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk: Tyndall Range environmental issues review March.

Database review to identify what environmental values and constraints exist (or are likely to) in the study area and whether these are (or are likely to be) critical barriers to developing a walk there.

Environmental Consulting Options Tasmania (ECOtas), 2019 Ecological ‘Fatal Flaws’ (Critical Constraints) Assessment of Proposed Walking Track and Hut Sites, Tyndall Range, West Coast, Tasmania November.

Database review and field survey to identify what environmental values and constraints exist (or are likely to) in the study area and whether these are (or are likely to be) critical barriers to developing a walk there. Initial planning advice.

ECOtas, 2020 Ecological ‘Fatal Flaws’ (Critical Constraints) Assessment of Proposed Walking Track and Hut Sites, Tyndall Range, West Coast, Tasmania: Addendum 1 November.

Follow-up and additional field surveys. Initial planning advice.

Economic and social Cultural Heritage Management Australia, 2021 Next Iconic Walk Project: Tyndall Range Stage 1 Aboriginal community consultation program April.

Consultation to identify and understand the significance and value of the Tyndall Range as a cultural landscape and to determine if there are any constraints to the project proceeding to the next stage of planning.

SGS Planning & Economics, 2021 West Coast Community Survey February.

Survey of 206 Tasmanians to identify West Coast walking preferences, responses to three walk options, including level of support, comments, suggestions, likely positive and negative impacts to West Coast residents and business, and opportunities and barriers.

Claire Ellis Consulting, 2021 Proposed Tyndall Range multi-day walk: Walking market service providers consultation January.

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Consultation with Tasmanian walking sector providers and adventure specialists about the opportunities and issues for their businesses from a new government-developed multi-day walk on the West Coast.

PWS, 2019-2021

Direct public input providing comment and suggestions about a new walk, the West Coast context, response to walk options, and technical and expert advice. Individual and group input was by phone and correspondence, and in person at meetings.

Project and operational Traffic & Civil Services, 2020 Anthony Main Road Bus Bay Options, Tyndall Range Walk September.

Investigation and report on the feasibility of vehicle and walker access from Anthony Main Road and Lake Spicer Track.

Pitt & Sherry, 2021 Next Iconic Walk Lake Margaret Power Station Haulage Way March.

Report on the feasibility of converting the existing (decommissioned) Lake Margaret haulage way to public use.

MTN Trails, 2021 Next Iconic Walk: Track design stage 3

Report on a field survey of the reference track corridor to identify a more preferred and detailed track alignment.

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3 FEASIBILITY STUDY SUMMARY OF FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATION

3.1 Summary of findings

The project’s brief was to develop a Feasibility Study of Tasmania’s next iconic multi-day hut-based walk.

Developing a new multi-day walk is about further building Tasmania’s reputation of being Australia’s first choice walking destination. A new multi-day walk will complement and expand the offering of walking experiences, providing more reasons to visit Tasmania.

There is demonstrated demand for such a walk. Having another multi-day walk in the suite of walks already available will enable visitors and Tasmanians alike to customise their adventure, considering their interest, capability and available time.

This first project stage has tested the feasibility of different walk locations and development options.

The walk selection process

First, the public was invited to identify possible new walks in Tasmania. Thirty-five possible locations around the State were suggested. These were assessed for potential and impediments in relation to visitor, environmental, economic, community, and operational considerations.

The Tyndall Range was identified in two public proposals and selected from the 35 possible statewide locations for its outstanding potential and manageable constraints.

Next, 50 walk options in and around the Tyndall Range were identified. More than 1,900 individuals, and many Tasmanian businesses, contributed their ideas, thoughts and expert advice.

Walk options representing common themes like duration, track routes and accommodation standards were selected for market, economic and social testing.

The route

The recommended track corridor is (subject to detailed investigation to optimise the walking experience and to manage environmental constraints) Anthony Road, west of Lake Plimsoll, Glacier Valley, Huntley Lookout, Lake Huntley (overnight accommodation), Lake Malcolm, Lake Mark, Lake Magdala, east of Mt Geikie (overnight accommodation), north of Lake Margaret, and along the penstock pipeline to Lake Margaret Power Station.

Desktop analysis and field surveys have yet to identify any critical environmental impediments that would prevent a walk development progressing, subject to detailed assessments being completed and obtaining formal approvals.

Market testing

Market testing confirmed that ‘walkers’ are individuals who expect an experience specifically designed for their preference. Visitors interested in multi-day walking preferred a three-day, two-night walk

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through the Tyndall Range. Market testing found the Tyndall Range’s landscape was highly appealing to visitors.

Barriers, conditions and capital cost

Wet, cold and cloudy weather is identified as a potential barrier to enjoying the experience. In response, high standard roofed accommodation, and reflection and refuge shelters along the track, are recommended for visitor safety and comfort.

High standard (hardened) tracks for environmental protection, walker safety and comfort are also recommended for this location.

The walk could include camping, bunked accommodation and guided experiences. Despite the climatic challenges of the area reducing the appeal of camping, it will be important consideration in the design stage to provide camping access in order to maintain affordability of the walk for all Tasmanian residents, noting that there are already existing camping opportunities.

Access to the West Coast from Tasmania’s gateways (Devonport, Launceston and Hobart) is a regional, tourism and business development opportunity if well integrated and managed. If access is not well managed, it is a significant barrier to visitation.

The median capital cost estimate to develop the walk is estimated at $37 million (subject to further planning, design and more detailed investigation). This costing is comparable to the Three Capes Track in the current construction climate. The costing takes account of the remote location and workforce challenges.

Visitor numbers and benefit-cost ratio

Market testing suggests that between 2,783 and 4,829 (median 3,806) visitors are very likely or likely to stay in roofed accommodation, and between 934 and 2,362 (median 1,648) are very likely or likely to camp per year (total median 5,450). Further testing during subsequent project stages will refine the product to increase the appeal for the target visitor segments.

A cost benefit analysis of the social, economic and environmental costs and benefits shows that the Next Iconic Walk is expected to generate a wide range of benefits, and that these benefits outweigh the costs.

At median visitor numbers, the estimated economic benefits (benefit-cost ratio (BCR)) for Tasmania of a three-day, two-night Next Iconic Walk is 1.13. If looking purely at the BCR for the West Coast, this increases to 12.71.

The main benefits for Tasmania are revenue from fees paid by walkers (60%), increased tourism visitation and spending (15%), education benefits (7%), enhanced tourism brand value (6%), skills development (6%), and improved health outcomes (1%). Other benefits, which could not be monetised, are the opportunity for renewal of the Queenstown township, with new business opportunities triggering investment, and an increase in the number and quality of jobs in the West Coast region, potentially resulting in higher wages and salaries for local residents. The three-day, two-night Next Iconic Walk will generate 139 jobs during construction, and 40 ongoing jobs. This includes jobs in track maintenance, operations and tourism services.

The majority, but not all of the benefits are generated through tourists visiting Tasmania. As demonstrated, benefits are also generated by local community members and other Tasmanians using

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the track. Further, the Next Iconic Walk is a publicly funded investment proposition on public land. The stakeholder engagement raised concerns about equity of access if the walk were to be privatised. This does not mean however that commercial opportunities should not be pursued and integrated into the walk design and planning as this will be critical to the economic benefits derived from the walk.

The final visitor fees are subject to accommodation capacity and actual demand. As a guide, annual operating costs are estimated at $2.9 million at 100% occupancy during a six-month operating period (mid spring-mid autumn). This assumes a total 50-bed equivalent at each of the two overnight accommodation sites: 30 beds and 10 camping platforms (20-bed equivalent). Capacity of 100% would result in 9,100 departures per year.

Track operation and maintenance can be funded from visitor income if the required visitor numbers are realised; otherwise, external subsidy will be required. With high occupancy, the track will generate an operating surplus.

Completion date and risks

The earliest date expected for construction commencement is 2023, with practical completion and transition into operations by April 2028; the latest date being August 2029 (subject to further planning, design and more detailed investigation).

The highest impact risks to achieving the benefits, capital budget and schedule are approval delays; site access, weather and latent conditions; and construction contractor availability and capacity.

To manage these risks, development staging and local skills training are required.

The highest impact risks to achieving the benefits and a viable operation are regional tourism supply preparedness and achieving the required visitor numbers. These risks can be overcome through destination development and marketing prior to commencement of the operation.

3.2 Recommendation

The development of this Feasibility Study has led to the following recommendation:

Based on the economic and social analysis, SGS Economics and Planning recommends that Option 1 be pursued (as detailed in this report). Of the options assessed in detail, and with the current monetised benefits, Option 1 is the only one for which the net present value of benefits would outweigh the costs.

As well as the export benefits from interstate visitors’ tourism expenditure and usage fees, important benefits will flow to Tasmanians, particularly social and educational benefits, and consumer surplus linked to local usage.

It is therefore recommended that the Tasmanian Government approve progressing with the election commitment to deliver a three-day, two-night Next Iconic Walk in the Tyndall Range, noting the project will require $17 million additional funding above the $20 million already committed ($37 million total), and noting the risks to the delivery of the project and walk operation.

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4 PROJECT INFORMATION

4.1 Project title

Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study.

4.2 Project sponsor

The PWS is sponsoring this Feasibility Study (which includes a business case). SGS Economics and Planning is responsible for its preparation with the PWS.

4.3 Project description

Project objective The Next Iconic Walk is a Tasmanian Liberal Government regional economic development project consistent with the aims of the T21 Tasmanian Visitor Economy Strategy (TG, 2015; TL, 2018). The Project’s Stage 1 Feasibility Study’s objective is to recommend the optimum development option, or the optimum achievable within the budget (if they are different).

Project and Feasibility Study scope The project is to develop, if feasible, a new walk. The scope of investigation and testing is to include these options and considerations:

• An existing iconic walk may be delivered to a higher standard of quality and experience. • A new experience may be developed. • A series of day walks could be linked together to make a multi-day experience. • The walk may be a hut-based experience of one or more overnights. • The project will focus on developing the highest quality product achievable, rather than delivering several lower quality products. • The walk must be able to be delivered within $20 million, although it may allow future stages (currently unfunded) (e.g. extensions, additions, complementary, value adding), or be delivered with additional funding. • Multiple proposals may be contemplated if they can all be achieved within budget. • Other modal transport options (e.g. boat, train, flights, rafting and/or cycling) will be considered to complement walking. • It is assumed that the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) Management Plan 2016 does not need to be amended (because the proposal is consistent with it), but amendments to other national park or reserve plans may be considered. • The project will deliver huts and a walk that is State-owned and operated, and income and profit will be reinvested in the experience through a business enterprise model. • Private cooperative options will be considered. • The experience, or part of it, will be bookable and charged at a market-tested rate.

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• The new walk will complement existing walks and tourism products.

Iconic walks An iconic walk is a personal adventure, an achievable challenge that creates an overwhelming feeling of reward.

When people search the world for iconic walks, they consider one or more of these common characteristics:

• diverse landscapes, often mountainous, coastal, pristine, beautiful, dramatic • contact with locals, and local history and culture, including built • animal encounters • uncrowded • length varying from tens to hundreds of kilometres, including optional side trips and sections.

Iconic walk types

For backcountry longer walks, people value:

• landscape variety • solitude • pristine environment • adventure • effort versus reward • escape • own pace (for some).

Popular shorter walks often include:

• landscape variety • history • effort versus reward • uncrowded track • comfort somewhere (during and/or at the end) (PWS, 2018).

Every continent has iconic walks. The project’s success – its ability to increase regional economic growth – is dependent on having a collection of experiences that are iconic and compelling enough to drive destination growth (D. Inches, personal communication, 17 February 2021).

Project need

Tasmania has many successful multi-day walks. Annually, they attract many visitors to Tasmania who spend time and money, thereby boosting the State’s economy. The success of the Overland Track and the Three Capes Track is such that the demand outweighs the capacity of these tracks during peak seasons. While effective management practices are in place to manage walker numbers, demand is greater than supply.

Tasmania has an abundance of exceptional natural and heritage destinations, and there is an obvious opportunity to develop a new iconic walk to meet the market demand and improve the economic outcomes for Tasmania’s regions.

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Possible walk locations

The PWS invited public submissions to capture the best ideas for a new iconic walk, drawing on the knowledge and experience of the community. The West Coast, which remains a ‘wild’ and unexplored corner of Tasmania that appeals to today’s experiential tourist, offered extraordinary potential and was selected as the preferred region.

Tasmania’s West Coast

Tasmania’s West Coast has a proud economic tradition in mining and forestry. Economic restructuring, and the typical boom and bust cycles in these sectors, has seen employment prospects for West Coast residents become uncertain. While some economic diversification has taken place, most notably in relation to aquaculture and tourism, Tasmania’s West Coast retains a relatively narrow economic base. This is a real risk to future economic prosperity.

Economic development allows businesses to invest in new equipment, hire more people, and pay higher wages. Greater economic activity also means higher government revenues and more money to spend on better quality services for the community. Economic development enables a higher standard of living for people.

Given the region’s natural and heritage assets, tourism is an industry that can further grow and continue to replace some of the economic activity being lost.

The West Coast has existing high-quality visitor attractions, such as the West Coast Wilderness Railway, rafting the Franklin River, and Gordon River Cruises. However, due largely to the long driving distance from Hobart and Launceston, and lack of diversity of experiences, the region does not attract as many visitors as other areas of Tasmania. Tasmania has developed a strong brand for nature-based tourism that has contributed to significant growth in tourist arrivals over recent years, but that success is yet to be fully realised on the West Coast.

It is important that any new visitor experience generates business and employment opportunities for the local community. New infrastructure should attract visitors who will stay in the region for multiple nights, visiting other attractions and frequenting accommodation, retail and hospitality venues. A concerted effort should be made to allow local businesses to link in and benefit from the investment via construction, transport or tour contracts (and the like).

The Tyndall Range

The Tyndall Range, located on the West Coast between Queenstown and Tullah, was identified in two public proposals and is the preferred location for a new multi-day walk.

Development options considered The PWS investigated 50 options for the development of a new walking experience in the Tyndall Range. Two walk options emerged from the 50 for detailed market, economic and social testing:

• Option 1 is a new three-day, two-night through walk with higher standard (safer, climate response, higher support) roofed accommodation and camping facilities. It is a 28 km walk between Lake Plimsoll and the historic Lake Margaret Power Station (walking direction to be determined). Overnight accommodation would be provided at iconic Lake Huntley (a night) and Mt Geikie (a night). Each hut is expected to accommodate approximately 30 walkers. Camping

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could also be considered. The earliest date expected for practical completion and transition into operations of Option 1 is April 2028, and the latest August 2029.

• Option 2 is a new two-day, one-night return walk with higher standard roofed accommodation and camping facilities. The 19-20 km walk would start and end at Lake Plimsoll; overnight accommodation would be provided at Lake Huntley. The route provides physical and visual access to the Tyndall Range’s most iconic locations. The earliest date expected for practical completion and transition into operations of Option 2 is June 2025, and the latest January 2026.

This Feasibility Study compares the merits of each option, testing each for visitor appeal; environmental, economic and social impacts; operational models; and project costs, schedules and risks.

Summary of options tested The following table summarises the comparisons of the two options tested in terms of their appeal to walkers; environmental, economic and community/social outcomes; and operational performance, risks and completion dates.

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TABLE 1: SUMMARY OF OPTIONS TESTED

Factor Option 1 Option 2

Visitors Walking experience 3 days/2 nights, between Anthony Road and Lake Margaret (refer 2 day/1 night, return between Anthony Road and Lake Huntley (refer map in section 13). 28 km. map in section 13). 20.6 km (return).

Iconic appeal Very high High

Market segment appeal Challenge Me (Overnight), Reward Seekers, Lifelong Walkers. Leisure market. Challenge Me (Overnight), Reward Seekers, Lifelong Walkers.

Concerns Poor weather spoiling experience, especially obstructing landscape Poor weather spoiling experience, especially obstructing landscape views, comfort and safety. views, comfort and safety. Flexibility being limited by a booking system. Flexibility being limited by a booking system.

Experience cost at 100% $576 roofed accommodation (bunk) and $288 camping per person. $408 (bunk) and $204 camping per person. occupancy (as occupancy  100% occupancy = 50 departures per day (dpd): 100% occupancy = 50 departures per day (dpd): cost ) 30 dpd in roofed accommodation + 20 dpd camping x 182 days per 30 dpd in roofed accommodation + 20 dpd camping x 182 days per year. year.

Estimated visitor numbers per Median 5,450 visitors (29 dpd). Median 1,951 visitors (10 dpd). year (3,717-7,191) staying in roofed accommodation and camping. (599-3,304) staying in roofed accommodation and camping.

Environment Ecological impact No unmanageable development impediments yet identified, although No unmanageable development impediments yet identified, although sensitive values. sensitive values.

Stakeholder input Stakeholder concerns with Lake Huntley accommodation, specifically Stakeholder concerns with Lake Huntley accommodation, specifically high numbers. high numbers.

Economic Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) for 1.13. 0.83. Tasmania

BCR for Tasmania’s West Coast 12.71 13.00

Direct (FTE) 26.4 9.7

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Factor Option 1 Option 2

Indirect (FTE) 13.1 4.8

Ongoing employment (FTE) 39.6 (139 during construction) 14.5

Business opportunities Yes. Yes. ­ As part of the walking experience (e.g. booking, information and ­ As part of the walking experience (e.g. booking, information and reception services, and transfers by bus). reception services, and transfers by bus).

­ Offer optional packaged value-adding activity (e.g. West Coast ­ Offer optional packaged value-adding activity (e.g. West Coast transfers, guided walks, food and gear hire/sales). transfers, guided walks, food and gear hire/sales).

­ Support the walk (e.g. facility maintenance, supplies, equipment). ­ Support the walk (e.g. facility maintenance, supplies, equipment). ­ Use the walk’s infrastructure (e.g. guided walks). ­ Use the walk’s infrastructure (e.g. guided walks). ­ Provide required and optional services for visitors attracted to ­ Provide required and optional services for visitors attracted to the West Coast by the walk (e.g. entertainment, tours, parking, the West Coast by the walk (e.g. entertainment, tours, parking, community services). community services). The options depend on the operating model public/private. The options depend on the operating model public/private. Bookings can restrict opportunities. Bookings can restrict opportunities.

Community Aboriginal community cultural No development impediments yet identified. No development impediments yet identified. landscape

West Coast residences and Refer Section 5.8. Refer Section 5.8. businesses and visitors

Industry Hydro Issues identified, but manageable. Issues identified, but manageable.

Mining Route impacts on existing exploration permits, although only Route impacts only the edge of one existing exploration permit. marginally on the edge. Potential exists for exploration and long-term Potential exists for exploration and long-term mining activity – less so mining activity - more so than Option 2. In principle support for this than Option 1. In principle support. Mt Read SPZ applies to the route has been secured. Mt Read Strategic Prospecting Zone (SPZ) tenures traversed. applies to the tenures traversed.

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Factor Option 1 Option 2

Operational Estimated operational cost per $2,874,295 $1,957,167 year (mid)

Self-funding business Low visitor number estimate: No (deficit $1.0 m). Low: No (deficit $1.8 m). enterprise: low, median and Median: No (deficit ~$0.2 m). Median: No (deficit ~$1.2 m). high visitor numbers, paying High: Yes (surplus ~$0.6 m). High: No (deficit ~$0.7 m). 100% capacity fee? (ignoring variable cost adjustments, which are a low % of total costs).

Operational complexity and Highest. Moderate-High. risks

Project Planning and construction cost Median $35.07 m ($28.1 m to $45.6 m). Median $15.32 m ($13.7 m to $18.6 m). (Note the actual project cost may differ from the median A staged development proposal may allow parts of Option 1 to be cost used for economic developed for $20 m. modelling.)

Practical completion (start of April 2028 to August 2029. June 2025 to January 2026. operation) date If delivered in stages, parts can be completed sooner.

Risks (High) (after pre-emptive Construction contractor availability/capacity (particularly track). Construction contractor availability/capacity (particularly track). and contingent management)

Risks (Moderate) (after pre- Site access, approval delays, poor weather, availability of long-term Site access, approval delays, poor weather, availability of long-term emptive and contingent contractor accommodation, operational workforce shortages, contractor accommodation, operational workforce shortages, management) operational emergencies. operational emergencies.

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4.4 Comparison of options leading to a recommendation

Development drivers A new ‘iconic’ walk (if successful) is linked to Tasmania owning the Australian multi-day market.

To achieve this, the key drivers are the walk must be iconic, deliver economic benefits (strengthen and diversify remote and regional economies), and build on Brand Tasmania.

The intention of the project is to develop an overnight walk complementing existing multi-day walks to expand and diversify the offer of multi-day walks in Tasmania.

Iconic The northern Tyndall Range, around Lake Huntley, does have ‘iconic’ appeal.

The Lake Margaret precinct offers West Coast stories.

Visitor appeal Options 1 has the highest potential to attract more visitors to Tasmania and the West Coast.

Delivering a multi-day hut-based walk Options 1 and 2 deliver a multi-day hut-based walk. Of these, Option 1 is a longer through walk (A to B) and preferred by visitors interested in multi-day walking. Option 2 is a return walk and considered a compromise, and thus was significantly less popular.

Environmental impacts Early consultation directed the investigation of development options to the less sensitive eastern side of the Tyndall Range. Database and field surveys are yet to find any development impediments, and the values identified can be protected with careful management. If the project proceeds, more detailed investigation will occur to inform planning and applications for development approval.

Economic benefits Option 1’s BCR is positive if the median visitor numbers are achieved, which is a stronger result than Options 2.

This is an acceptable and conservative starting point, as the actual visitor numbers will remain unknown until the track is opened (e.g. visitor numbers were an unknown factor during planning for the Three Capes Track, but the numbers on-track far exceeded expectations). However, market testing indicates that the Tyndall Range is unlikely to be a first choice walking destination in Tasmania. Option 1 is unlikely to be as popular as the Three Capes Track, and visitor numbers may be lower. Nonetheless, while there is a risk, the estimated visitation figures suggest that the three-day, two-night walk (Option 1) in the Tyndall Range is the most attractive proposition for visitors to travel to Tasmania.

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All options require a strategic investment in Queenstown tourism and town infrastructure and services, including public transport links to the rest of Tasmania. The schedule for Option 1 allows time to develop a destination plan and to improve supply.

All options offer opportunities and benefits for Tasmanian and West Coast businesses. The operation of Options 1 and 2 needs to consider how businesses can participate, as the barriers (e.g. if a booking system is used) depend on how the walk is managed.

Construction and delivery Option 2 could be delivered for $20 million. However, it should be noted that at the time of the initial budget commitment in 2018, the location and walk concept were unknown and $20 million was realistic for the purpose of the commitment and as a ‘point in time’ estimate. The cost of Option 1 is considered realistic when compared to precedents (like the Three Capes Track) and allowing for inflation to the project’s likely completion in 2028 to 2029.

About $17 million extra ($37 million total) is required to deliver Option 1, and the planning and delivery budget risks are higher from contractor availability, including cost escalation, the long construction schedule, and uncertainty related to latent and seasonal conditions. The longer timeframe for completion of this walk offers advantages in terms of securing the additional funding required, using a portion of the $20 million up front for initial investment in the planning and approvals phases.

To develop Option 1, a staged approach has some merit. An option (subject to further investigation) is to start with the Lake Margaret Power Station-Lake Margaret Dam in association with “Uncomformity” proposals for the Haulage terminus and pipeline. The completion of this section early in the project could be the catalyst for commercial opportunity and a short day walk return option at Lake Margaret. This would be dependent on the eventual direction of the through walk. Other options include a stage 2, comprising a walk from the Henty Canal to Newton peak and or further to Lake Huntley.

Other staging plans were considered, including completing the Lake Huntley and or Geikie accommodation after stage 2. However, there is a significant risk is it would confuse the visitor experience/offer to market, and it risks delivering an inferior product if Option 1 is only partially developed.

Operational Operational budget risks are high if projected visitor numbers are not achieved.

Options 1 and 2 include an income source for operations and maintenance if median to high demand is realised. Option 1 has the highest potential to break even and generate a profit, based upon the projected visitor numbers. Option 2 is more likely to result in a high ongoing operating deficit.

Merits of the project The comparative merits of each option to deliver economic benefits were tested. All have significant risks, but also benefits, for the West Coast and for furthering the brand of Tasmania as a multi-day walk destination. Option 1 has the highest potential to achieve the project objectives.

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5 PROJECT JUSTIFICATION

5.1 Project goal

The goal of this project is to increase visitation to Tasmania’s West Coast (and Tasmania overall) and maximise economic benefits for both.

5.2 Location

Approximately three and a half hours from Hobart, Tasmania’s West Coast is a landscape like no other – it is a remote, wild and rugged place that encompasses an abundance of mountains, lakes, rivers and forests.

Hero attractions on the coast include the Gordon River Cruise that ventures into the UNESCO TWWHA, and the West Coast Wilderness Railway, a unique steam railway journey through the rugged rainforest and along rivers. Other activities include rafting the King River, day walks, and the Bonnet Island Little penguin colony.

The West Coast offers a number of wilderness day walks, like the three-hour return, easy grade walk to the spectacular Montezuma Falls; the six-hour return, hard grade walk to the peak of Mt Murchison; and the three-hour return, easy grade walk along the Bird River to the abandoned town of Pillinger.

This report discusses the benefits, costs and risks of a new iconic walk in and around the Tyndall Range.

5.3 Definition of the ‘problem’, or case for change

Tasmania has a strong tourism economy, which the West Coast has not yet fully capitalised on. Regional Australia is home to some of Australia’s most unique environmental assets; the Tyndall Range on the West Coast is a prime example. According to the Australian Trade and Investment Commission, the most sought-after experiences in regional Australia correlate with Australia’s core offerings of aquatic and coastal, wildlife and natural beauty, and food and wine (2017).

In the year ending March 2020, Tasmania attracted 1.31 million visitors, resulting in 10.51 million visitor nights, and $2.52 billion in visitor spend (Tourism Tasmania, 2020). The overwhelming majority of tourists to Tasmania are domestic visitors from interstate (mainland Australia) (1.1 million visitors in the year ending March 2020, compared to 254,000 international visitors (Tourism Tasmania, 2020). During this period, 505,000 of these tourists visited the West/North West region of Tasmania. This is just under half the number that visited the Southern region of Tasmania (1,036,100).

Looking at visitor data of the two most populous towns in Western Tasmania paints this picture even more; both Strahan and Queenstown are missing out on the vast majority of Tasmanian visitors.

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TABLE 2: STRAHAN AND QUEENSTOWN VISITATION IN 2018

Pass-through visitors Daytrip visitors 2018 Overnight stays 2018 Average no. of 2018 nights stayed

No. % of % + or - No. % of % + or No. % of total % + total since total Tas - since Tas or - Tas ‘17 Visitors ‘17 Visitors since Visitors ‘17

Strahan 9,116 0.7% +19.9% 18,026 1.4% -13.6% 115,620 8.8% -0.9% 2.4

Queenstown 42,920 3.3% +7.4% 52,695 4% +8.6% 40,217 3.1% +2.4% 1.7

Source: Tourism Tasmania, 2018 Although COVID-19 has drastically reduced both interstate and international visitation to Tasmania, it can be expected that, once travel returns, the split of visitation will remain similar. Thus, unless there are targeted interventions, the West Coast will likely remain a relatively unexplored corner of Tasmania.

Tasmania has developed a solid brand for multi-day walk experiences, which the West Coast has not yet capitalised on. Research by Tourism Tasmania confirms that walking is (and always has been) one of the most popular recreational activities of visitors to Tasmania. Forty-two per cent of all visitors to Tasmania said they visited at least one national park during their visit to the state (Tourism Tasmania, 1999-2020; PWS, 2020). Visitor surveys conducted by the PWS regularly report that walking is the major activity undertaken in parks and reserves (PWS, n.d.).

Visitors to Tasmania from around the world have discovered the State’s great walks and, as a result, Tasmania’s two iconic walks, the Overland Track and the Three Capes Track, have been almost fully booked during peak periods.

For November 2019 to April 2020 (inclusive), before statewide restrictions to Tasmania’s parks and reserves were introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, bookings for the Three Capes Track were at 96-98% of total capacity (PWS, 2020). Likewise, between December 2018 and March 2019 the Overland Track was at 94-97% of total capacity (PWS, 2020).

In Tasmania, there is clearly latent demand for additional walks: 93% of respondents who walked the Three Capes Track said they would walk on a new track elsewhere in Tasmania if it was of a similar standard (2018 Three Capes Track Walker Survey). While cost is a barrier to some locals, it is worth noting that Tasmanians comprise 17% of Three Capes Track walkers, and 12% of Overland Track walkers (during the booking season).

Importantly, PWS walker surveys reveal that the sustainable management of the Overland Track and Three Capes Track walks has contributed to exceptionally high satisfaction (PWS, 2020). Over 90% of walkers on both tracks rate their walk as “one of the best things they’ve done in their lives”, or “one of the best things they’ve done in the past 12 months” (PWS, 2020).

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Economic restructuring, and the typical boom and bust cycles in mining sectors, has seen employment prospects for West Coast residents become uncertain. The population of the West Coast Local Government Area is 4,162 (2017). This is projected to decline to just 2,960 by 2042. Employment rates have been consistently below Tasmanian averages. Due to the narrow economic base, the West Coast community experiences rolling shocks to employment, and unemployment has ranged from 7% to nearly 12% over just several years (ABS, 2013-2019). In addition (and somewhat as a result), the area is extremely disadvantaged, rating poorly on many health, wellbeing, education, transport, access, and digital inclusion indicators (Department of Premier and Cabinet, 2019).

FIGURE 4: LABOUR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

3,000 12%

2,500 10%

2,000 8%

1,500 6%

1,000 4% Unemployment rate Size of labour force labour of Size

500 2%

0 0% Apr-19 Apr-18 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Dec-19 Dec-18 Dec-17 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Aug-19 Aug-18 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17

West Coast labour force West Coast unemployment rate Tasmania unemployment rate

Source: ABS Data, 2013-20, SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 While some economic diversification has taken place, most notably in relation to aquaculture and tourism, Tasmania’s West Coast retains a relatively narrow economic base. This is a real risk to future economic prosperity. Queenstown and other West Coast communities have undergone significant change as a result of restructuring in the timber and mining industries, and other traditional blue-collar industries. Gross regional output is still dominated by mining. With the output of mining falling over recent years, growing a diversified economy on the West Coast is more important than ever (ABS, 2013-19).

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FIGURE 5: GRP OF THE WEST COAST* BY INDUSTRY – 2013 AND 2019

Contribution to GRP ($ millions) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Transport, Postal & Warehousing Information Media and Telecommunications Financial & Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Administrative & Support Services Public Administration and Safety Education & Training Health Care & Social Assistance Arts & Recreation Services Other Services

2013 2019

*The West Coast area (defined by the ABS SA2) includes Queenstown, Strahan, Zeehan and Rosebery

Source: ABS Data, 2013 and 2019, SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 While the contribution of mining has fallen, nearly every other industry grouping has been growing on the West Coast. Industries related to tourism have been growing, linked to the region’s growth as a tourist market. Tourism-related industries include accommodation and food services, retail, arts and recreation services, and agriculture/manufacturing if there are local vineyards, breweries and other food/drink related attractions.

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FIGURE 6: GRP OF THE WEST COAST BY INDUSTRY, EXCLUDING MINING – 2013 AND 2019

Contribution to GRP ($ millions) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Transport, Postal & Warehousing Information Media and Telecommunications Financial & Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Administrative & Support Services Public Administration and Safety Education & Training Health Care & Social Assistance Arts & Recreation Services Other Services

2013 2019

Source: ABS Data, 2013 and 2019, SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 Sustaining and growing employment opportunities is critical for the local economy and the economic sustainability of local communities like Queenstown. Due to its small population, and low industry diversity, the benefits from a new, successful tourism attraction would be very high for Western Tasmania.

5.4 Existing market demand

Methodology Market analysis included:

• research to identify popular and successful international, Australian and Tasmanian multi-day walks and their characteristics • tourism and nature-based visitation trends • survey of interstate visitor intentions and preferences when travelling to Tasmania to walk • interstate and Tasmanian visitor responses to specific walk options from surveys and focus groups.

Markets are discussed in more detail in section 8.

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The current supply side Myriad Research’s market testing (completed Oct 2020) posed questions about multi-day walking in the previous five years, and planned walking in the next three. Nearly 60% of respondents stated they had walked the Three Capes Track in the last five years, and it was overwhelmingly the most popular walk across the last five years among this sample.

The data revealed that walkers generally repeat the activity regularly. The 814 respondents had completed 2,339 multi-day walks in the past five years, an average of 2.8 completed walks per person. These same respondents had also planned (if COVID-19 travel restrictions allowed) 3,163 more walks in the next three years, averaging 3.9 walks per person.

The most walked tracks (walks with over 100 responses) were:

• the Three Capes Track (485 walkers) • the Overland Track (208 walkers) • Wilsons Promontory Walk, Victoria (143 walkers) • Great Ocean Road Walk, Victoria (126 walkers) • Base camp1 Blue Mountains, New South Wales (122 walkers) • Cradle “base camp” walks (not Overland Track) (106 walkers).

The number of walks and locations reported are shown in Table 3, noting COVID-19 may well affect people’s likelihood to walk overseas in the next three years2.

TABLE 3: NUMBER AND LOCATION OF MULTI-DAY WALKS DONE OR PLANNED BY 814 RESPONDENTS

Walks undertaken in the last 5 years Walks planned in the next 3 years

No. % No. %

Australia 1,174 50.2 1,901 60.1%

New Zealand 378 16.2 522 16.5%

International 258 11 227 7.2%

Based camp Aus. 529 22.6 513 16.2% and overseas

Total 2,339 100 3,163 100

Source: Myriad Research Report (2020) Of all multi-day walks completed in Australia, 16.9% were guided or supported walks, compared with 22.5% of New Zealand (NZ) walks, and 52.7% of overseas walks. A closer analysis of each walk showed

1 Interestingly “base camp walking” is not a common term, but the capacity to undertake it is becoming increasingly easy, as a trend in destination management has been developing outdoor adventure / experience hubs (Ellis, 2020).

2 No options for the planned New Iconic Walk will be operational until at least 2025, well after this pandemic should be under control.

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Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study more than a third of walkers (per walk) had completed the following walks using guided or supported options: Larapinta; Heysen; Great Ocean Road Walk; Seven Peaks and Cape to Cape; and Bay of Fires, with Kangaroo Island Wilderness Trail almost at the one third. Larapinta was highest, with 57% having walked supported/guided. In contrast, the Three Capes Track had 14.7% walk guided/supported, and the Overland Track 14.4% (Myriad Research).

Variations in the proportion of walkers seeking to pay for additional guided/supported walking compared to doing the walk unsupported (independently) can significantly alter job creation and local business growth (as well as have other impacts). Consideration of issues in this area has grown as a result of COVID-19, and many commercial tourism operators are rethinking what domestic visitors will pay for (what is perceived as needed, and what is appealing) around a nature-based walking experience. Park entities are also reviewing this area closely and, as a general statement, the higher the level of core infrastructure built into a walk (huts, wayfinding, interpretation), the lower the need for guides (Ellis, 2020).

Demand from the overall Tasmanian tourist market Tourists/visitors are individuals who seek experiences that meet their needs and wants and are achievable within financial and time constraints – in short, they are motivated to travel for different reasons. Visitors can also be grouped by shared (common) characteristics, including by those groups that visit Tasmanian regional areas, and by walker type (a subset of visitors).

Tourism Tasmania research highlights that Tasmania is a desirable destination because of its nature, and nature-based activities. Parks and reserves are vitally important to Tasmania’s tourism industry.

The Tourism Tasmania Market Insights Report 2019 (pre COVID-19) remarks that Tasmania is primarily a long break destination (both for visitation and consideration). Tourism Tasmania’s key target markets are the Raw Urbanites and Erudites (Tourism Tasmania, 2019):

• Raw Urbanites are seeking interactions that are engaged, honest, pure and real, without cynicism or hidden agenda. The counter structure to the hectic, busy daily lives they lead is serious inner peace and finding themselves through connecting to the environment and being away from materialism, as well as unnecessary technology. They are seeking an opportunity to switch off, refresh and rejuvenate through nature and rebuild connections. They need ‘mindful moments’ in holidays which allow them to be present, in order to return to everyday life refreshed (Tourism Tasmania, 2019).

• Erudites are seeking unique experiences with rich culture, deep heritage, innovation and intrigue. The acquisition of knowledge and need to be a cultural pioneer is central to their travel motivations, and expressing themselves is paramount. Difference is a critical motivator for Erudites, who crave new experiences to feed their curiosity and keep them interested in life. Holidays for Erudites are about switching on rather than switching off. They build packed itineraries using DIY (do it yourself) travel technology and are open to changing their itinerary whilst at destination. They are deeply afraid of missing out; discovering that there is an event or opportunity they are missing out on will provoke them to make changes to their itineraries at the last minute (Tourism Tasmania, 2019).

These two target markets collectively encompass a third of all travelling Australians. While each segment has distinct features, both seek enrichment and new discoveries from their holidays (Tourism Tasmania, 2019).

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Tasmania’s West Coast is a regional area. Family road trippers (domestic leisure market) and older (55+) affluent Australians, driven by convenience, affordability, and the opportunity to spend quality time with friends and family, have a higher propensity to visit regional destinations; on the other hand, international (leisure) visitors to regional areas are most likely day trippers from capital cities (Deloitte, 2019).

Demand from the multi-day walker target market Multi-day walking in the consumer’s mind is a broad set of options, not just a walk from A to B (C. Ellis, personal communication, 24 February 2021).

Most visitors to Tasmania (690,936 or 52-53% in 2018-19) walk while here. Of all visitors, 44-45% (589,633) bushwalk, 25% (335,721) prefer short walks (<2 hours), 25% (336,090) prefer walks of four hours or longer (but not overnight), and 3-4% (41,112) prefer to bushwalk overnight or longer (multi-day bushwalk market) (Tourism Tasmania, 2019). There are distinct walker market segments. More people (higher numbers) are interested in bushwalking as the level of comfort increases, and difficulty decreases; level of interest is price dependent. The trend over the past decade is an increasing interest in shorter walks. As it relates to overnight walking, shorter duration walks are now more popular than six days. Tasmania has established a prominent domestic walking position that is likely to have strengthened further since data summarised in The Victorian Track Strategy 2014-2024 (no longer in use) stated “in relation to ‘offering iconic walks in a natural setting’, Victoria is in fourth position (12%) behind Queensland (23%), New South Wales (19%) and Tasmania (17%). However, Tasmania ascends to first place when excluding respondents who identified their own State” (Ellis, 2020, sourced from Tourism Victoria’s Brand Health Survey, Roy Morgan Research, July 2013).

In late 2019, research company Instinct and Reason tested likely responses to walk concepts and proposed experiences for the Next Iconic Walk via an online survey. The representative survey consisted of 500 adults living in Australia open to a walk in Tasmania, or experienced overnight walkers.

Overall, Instinct and Reason’s results showed:

• Tasmania’s scenery is the primary attraction for walkers. • Experienced walkers say important influences on their intention to walk in Tasmania are: • the quality of information they can get about the walk and the facilities • whether they are familiar with the location • the other things they can do • Tasmania as a destination, which makes it easier to convince walking partners into coming along. • Experienced walkers rate Tasmania’s walks as very good, and inexperienced walkers are unsure. • A multi-day walk of a similar standard to the Three Capes Track is likely to achieve the highest demand from the multi-day walker target market.

The report delivered the following additional quantified insights.

• The majority of walkers are likely to come as couples or groups (similar to the Three Capes Track). • Bunks are the most preferred accommodation, followed by tents on platforms, and guided walks using huts. It is possible bunks may grow in appeal after the walk opens, due to the

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reality of climate conditions in the area making camping more uncomfortable than on other multi-day walks. Despite the climatic challenges of the area reducing the appeal of camping, it will be important to provide camping access in order to keep the walk affordable for all Tasmanian residents. • Once the walk duration and route is set, the lead buying reason is connection with, and diversity of, views, landscape and the natural environment. • The two other areas for differentiation are (1) the adventure hub base camp model experience, and (2) additional experiences and activities that connect walkers with views, landscape and the natural environment. • A strong preference is also shown for private bedrooms and bathrooms across all walkers (Instinct and Reason, 2019), but this is price dependent (preference for highest amenity at least cost).

Interestingly, four main reasons are given for considering the iconic walk: the duration of the walk and its distance, the cost of the walk, the accommodation standard, and the season. Together, these account for 62% of all reasons given (Instinct and Reason, 2019).

5.5 Walk options

The public, stakeholders and the PWS identified 50 walk options for the Tyndall Range and surrounding locations. Each option responds differently to these variables and their relative importance:

• landscape characteristics (e.g. geology, topography) • climate (elevation, precipitation, irradiation, wind, temperature, seasons) • regional and local access • ecology • historic, existing and future uses • visitor preferences • constructability • operability • cost.

All walk options of these types are possible: through (A to B), return/circuit or base camp type, differing duration (days/nights), and accommodation standards (camping, bunk etc).

• Through walks start in a location and walkers travel though the landscape to a different and distant end location, like the South Coast Track, Overland Track and Three Capes Track. • Return walks allow walking from a start location to a destination and back again, like the Frenchmans Cap Track. • A base camp provides centralised accommodation (e.g. remote or town) and walking tracks start and end there, or are located regionally, like at Cradle Mountain (excluding the Overland Track).

The 50 options were reduced to three walk options for testing. Draft visitor experience statements have been developed for each option, and can be found at section 13.

Option 1: three-day, two-night through walk between Lake Plimsoll and Lake Margaret Power Station Option 1 is a three-day, two-night through walk between Lake Plimsoll and the historic Lake Margaret Power Station. Accommodation would be provided for walkers in the form of roofed accommodation

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(bunk, single/twin share) and camping facilities. Three roofed accommodation (bunk/single/twin share) types are tested at basic (Option 1a), mid (Option 1b) and high (Option 1c) standards.

The 28 km walk could start at either the power station or Lake Plimsoll, depending on whether a staged development strategy is preferred. Overnight accommodation would be provided at Lake Huntley, considered to be the most iconic, or significant, visual element of the Tyndall Range due to its sheer 300 metre cliffs. The location proposed for the accommodation will take full advantage of this commanding viewpoint, as shown in the image below. A map is provided at section 13.

FIGURE 7: PROPOSED ACCOMMODATION SITE IN OPTION 1: LAKE HUNTLEY

Source: PWS, 2020 The other night of accommodation will be provided in the shadow of Mt Geikie, as shown in the image overleaf.

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FIGURE 8: PROPOSED ACCOMMODATION SITE IN OPTION 1: MT GEIKIE

Source: PWS, 2020 The walk visits the historic Lake Margaret Power Station (built in 1911) and surrounding village (now abandoned). The decommissioned site has a rich history, and many of the village’s workers cottages are still intact.

FIGURE 9: LAKE MARGARET POWER STATION AND SURROUNDING VILLAGE

Source: PWS, 2020 The earliest date estimated for practical completion and transition into operations is April 2028, and the latest is August 2029.

Option 2: two-day, one-night return walk between Anthony Road and Lake Huntley Option 2 is a two-day, one-night return walk between Anthony Road and Lake Huntley. Accommodation would be provided for walkers in the form of roofed accommodation (bunk, single/twin share) and camping facilities. Two roofed accommodation (bunk/single/twin share) types are tested, at mid (Option 2a) and high (Option 2b) standards.

The 19 to 20 km return walk would start and end at Lake Plimsoll. Accommodation for one night would be provided at Lake Huntley.

The earliest date expected for final completion and transition into operations of Option 2 is June 2025, and the latest January 2026. A map is provided at section 13.

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Benchmark: Existing and new part-day and full-day walk investment (for comparison only) In the following analysis a benchmark is included as a reference for comparing the two multi-day walk options identified. The benchmark is new day walks and upgrades to selected existing regional (the West Coast) part-day and full-day walks. The new day walks are Anthony Road or Lake Spicer to Glacier Valley and Huntley Lookout, and a part-day walk to Lake Margaret. Town accommodation is used (not along the track as in Options 1 and 2). A map is provided at section 13. This benchmark was suggested during consultation and represents a continuation of an ‘established incremental development pattern’. The benchmark was highly useful and was informative in this context, but not a recommended development option as it was not included in the (advertised) brief to find a Tasmanian location for a walk and does not deliver a multi-day hut based walk.

Walker segmentation profiles Figure 10 and Table 5 show five walker segments against variables of their desire for challenge and rewards for effort. This model has not been qualified or quantified, but Inspired by Marketing has developed it for the Next Iconic Walk project by reviewing available literature and holding discussions with professionals in the walking market.

“Comfort rewards” measures the level of rewards the walkers seek for their effort. Pack and carry services, food experiences, wellness, and superior sleeping arrangements are examples of high comfort. “Challenge” measures the level of challenge the walker seeks from their experience and relates to the walk duration and difficulty, and climate.

FIGURE 10: WALKER SEGMENTATION MATRIX: NEXT ICONIC WALK

Source: Inspired By Marketing, 2020

Walk options alignment with key walker segments The following table shows the alignment of segments to the three walk options. It shows that Options 1 and 2 align with more target walker segments (Challenge Me (Overnight), Reward Seeker and Lifelong

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Walker) than the benchmark (Challenge Me (Day) and Lifelong Walkers). However, these are different size markets with different ease/factors of triggering.

TABLE 4: OPTIONS ALIGNMENT WITH WALKER SEGMENTS

Option 1 Option 2 Benchmark

Through walk Return walk Day walks

Scenic Strollers   

Challenge Me (Day)   

Challenge Me (Overnight)   

Reward Seeker   

Lifelong Walker   

Source: Inspired by Marketing, 2021

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TABLE 5: WALKER SEGMENTATION PROFILES: NEXT ICONIC WALK

Type Challenge Comfort Rewards Duration Profile

Scenic Strollers are found within the existing traveller market. Walking is not a driver for visitation; however, if the weather aligns, Scenic Strollers will take a Scenic Low Low <1 hour short walk to connect with Tasmania’s wilderness. On the West Coast they are more likely to be aged 45+ travelling as couples (BDA Study 2020). Walking is Strollers not a priority and will fit around other activities. If the weather is right, time allows, and the walk destination is visually compelling enough, Scenic Strollers will do short walks such as Nelson Falls, Hogarth Falls and Horsetail Falls.

Challenge Me Moderate- Moderate 1-5 hours Challenge Me (Day) Walkers are active travellers who seek to connect with Tasmania’s natural environment. They are likely to be somewhat prepared for day (Day Walkers) Difficult walks, and while walking will not be the driver for their holiday, iconic walks will be on their radar. While extended walks are appealing, a number of options compete for their time, and the weather and walk duration will play a large part in walk participation. Appealing Tasmanian day walks will include Montezuma Falls, Hazards Beach Circuit and Cape Hauy. They may have multi-day walk experience, or just longer day walks.

Challenge Me Moderate- Moderate Overnight Challenge Me (Overnight) Walkers are active travellers who seek to connect with Tasmania’s natural environment through an extended multi-night walking (Overnight Difficult Multi-Day Walks experience. The West Coast environment is likely to capture the attention of walkers who have previously done a multi-day walk and seek to further Walkers) challenge themselves. They will be prepared and ready to walk in any conditions; however, for many this will be their first experience walking in more challenging weather conditions. Appealing walks will include the Three Capes Track and Great Ocean Road Walk.

Reward Moderate High Overnight Reward Seekers are active travellers who seek to connect with Tasmania’s natural environment through a less challenging and high reward walking Seekers Multi-Day Walks experience. The majority of Reward Seekers will value a ‘lighter’ walking environment; however, some are still up for a greater challenge. Personal reflection and connecting with Tasmania’s nature through an overnight walk is the primary reason for travel to Tasmania. The West Coast environment is likely to capture the attention of walkers who have previously done a multi-day walk and seek to further challenge themselves. They will seek reward for their effort through pack carry, food experiences, and superior sleeping arrangements. A level of exclusivity and brag ability surrounds successful walks targeting this walker. Appealing walks will include the Three Capes Track (guided), Bay of Fires Lodge, Freycinet Experience Walk and Maria Island Walk.

Lifelong Walkers are highly experienced walkers seeking a raw and organic connection with Tasmania’s wilderness. They look to escape the crowds and Lifelong Difficult Low Extended Day prefer to camp or use very base (standard) accommodation. Lifelong Walkers have been walking for most of their lives; remote, independent walking is part Walkers and Overnight of their self-identity. The weather is far from a deterrent, and more part of the experience. They will be prepared and ready for anything. Multi-Day Walks

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5.6 Development of the options

The options were developed over an extensive iterative process that involved engaging with the public to identify Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk, and market testing of walk options.

In 2018, the public was invited to identify locations and ideas for a new Tasmanian multi-day walk (PWS, 2018). The aim was to capture the community’s best ideas, knowledge and experience. In total, 35 possible locations were assessed: 24 identified by the public, and 11 by the PWS through its existing research and knowledge. The map below identifies all locations.

FIGURE 11: LOCATIONS CONSIDERED FOR TASMANIA’S NEXT ICONIC WALK

Source: PWS, 2020 Possible locations for a new Tasmanian iconic walk were assessed for potential and impediments in relation to visitor, environmental, economic, community, and operational considerations. This involved critically reviewing all proposals and historic walk development reports, undertaking site visits, and using expert judgement to identify a location with the optimum combination of success factors (PWS, 2020).

It was found that all proposals had potential, although none in their entirety offered a truly unique, world class experience, tailored and with enduring appeal to specific international, interstate and Tasmanian visitor markets (PWS, 2020).

The preferred location – the Tyndall Range – was identified in two public submissions and was selected on the merits of:

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• an extraordinarily spectacular and dramatic landscape of cliffs, lakes and varied vegetation types, with a powerful sense of being wild and remote • opportunities for adapting the proposal to integrate aspects of the geological and power generation heritage of the region • it being within 30 km of Queenstown with well-connected road access to Strahan, Rosebery, Zeehan and Tullah • proximity to the Queenstown and Strahan airports, with recently introduced connecting services to Hobart and Launceston from Strahan • alternative and complementary tourism products emanating from Queenstown, Strahan, Zeehan and Rosebery, such as the West Coast Wilderness Railway, Gordon River Cruises, etc (PWS, 2020).

5.7 Market testing summary

Myriad Research In mid-2020, the PWS commissioned Myriad Research to undertake an online survey to test the Next Iconic Walk with the multi-day walking market across all States and Territories. The survey was designed to assess the demand profile for five walk options, in relation to the following aspects:

• appeal rating and ranking • likelihood to book • walk party • fee and experience aspects • influence of preferred option on visitation to the region.

These five options were tested:

• Option A, three-day, two-night through walk: This is a 28 km (average 9 to 10 km per day) through walk, visiting glacial valleys, lakes, lookouts, forest and plains. The walk encourages a slower, more relaxing and easier pace than the two-day options below. This option most aligns to this project’s Option 1. • Option B, two-day, two-night through walk: This option follows the same route as Option A, but includes longer days of walking (average 12 to 15 km per day). The 28 km walk is completed in two days, two nights. Night one is at Lake Huntley, and night two is in heritage accommodation (independent or guided) at the Lake Margaret Power Station village, enabling guests to immerse themselves in the history of the hydro power station site. • Option C, two-day, one-night through walk: This option follows the same route as Options A and B, and includes longer days of walking (average 12 to 15 km per day). The 28 km walk is completed in two days, one night. Lake Matthew is the overnight accommodation site. • Option D, two-day, two-night return walk: The 19 to 20 km walk starts and ends at the Upper Lake Margaret Power Station village with a short steep ascent/descent, but is easier between there and the on-track overnight accommodation at Mt Geikie East. This option also includes historic heritage accommodation (independent or guided) at the Lake Margaret Power Station village at the end of the second day. • Option E, two-day, one-night return walk: This is a 21 km return walk to Lake Huntley. It is a moderate to difficult and shorter duration adventure into the area’s glaciated landscape. A night at Lake Huntley, surrounded by towering cliffs, will be a highlight. This option most aligns with this project’s Option 2.

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The appeal of day walks based around existing town accommodation was also tested.

The survey instrument was designed by the consultants (Myriad Research in conjunction with Claire Ellis Consulting) with significant client input.

A target sample of 814 respondents was set to provide statistically robust outcomes for the total sample, and for key segments. Target quotas were also set for States and Territories to generally reflect the PWS client base for the Three Capes Track.

Qualified respondents (for full survey completion) were aged 18 and over, were Australian residents, and had completed a multi-day walk within the past five years. Respondents were sourced from the PWS’ database for the Three Capes Track and the Overland Track, and from the Myriad and CINT research panels. The survey was launched on 6 August and closed on 31 August 2020.

The survey presented the five options to respondents in a randomised order.

Findings Overall, respondents clearly and consistently preferred Option A (1) – the three-day, two-night through walk. Almost 70% of all respondents gave it a positive appeal rating.

Leaving cost aside, 65% of all respondents would be likely and very likely (on a 1-4 scale, where 3 is likely and 4 very likely) to book this walk. The appeal rating for Option A (1) was significantly higher for those respondents who had previously walked in Tasmania, as was likelihood to book (Myriad Research, 2020).

Option B was the second most popular option – the two-day, two-night through walk, and 54% gave it a positive appeal rating. Leaving cost aside, 51% of all respondents would be likely and very likely to book this walk.

Overall, the most appealing theme across all five walk options was the ‘views, landscape, natural environment’. The distance travelled each day, the number of nights (total walk time), and the walk itself were also important themes relating to the appeal of each walk option (Myriad Research, 2020).

Aspects that would increase the appeal of the various options were many and varied, with ‘length of walk’ most often mentioned – and with a clear call for a longer walk duration across all walk options.

The likelihood of respondents to book a particular walk was tested by presenting a range of ‘experiences’ and associated fees for each option.

Option A (1) – the three-day, two-night through walk – has the strongest support as an independent, shared bunk room experience at low and high standard tracks; 44-48% of all respondents were likely to book at the prices tested (refer below). Those preferring a higher standard experience were more committed to booking the walk.

For Option A (1), the independent camping option has moderate support (33-34%), for both lower and higher track standard, with markedly less support (14%) for the guided walk experience, noting the previous/planned walk profile and sourcing of survey respondents. The different fee structures do not significantly affect the level of interest across the range of walking experiences. The ‘likelihood to book’ pattern is generally similar across the other walk options. This is particularly important, as the price options vary widely, from $155 per person (for independent camping), to $1,420 per person (for a guided experience with single/twin share accommodation). This suggests a low price elasticity of demand.

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TABLE 6: RESPONSES TO LEVEL OF SUPPORT

Fee structure Experience 1 Experience 2 Experience 3 Experience 4 Experience 5

Walk type Independent Independent Independent Independent Guided

Accommodation Camping Camping Bunk in a shared Bunk in a shared Single/twin share room room bedroom

Track standard Lower Higher Lower Higher Higher

Total cost per $155 $205 $310 $410 $1,420 person

Source: Myriad Research, 2020 Overall, there is a markedly higher level of potential take-up (as a percentage of total respondents) for Option A (1) compared with the other walk options presented.

Implications for this project It is clear from the online survey administered by Myriad Research that through walks, in particular the three-day, two-night through walk, was most favoured by the Australia-wide multi-day walking market. It is important to note the little support for a return walk from this group despite the distance being similar (with the length of walk being touted as a key means to increase the appeal of the product).

Track and accommodation standard affect appeal. The Myriad survey findings are consistent with separate market research and existing Tasmanian walk exit surveys and indicate that, to maximise appeal to the highest number of potential visitors, a higher standard track and accommodation should be provided.

The Tyndall Range’s colder and wetter climate requires higher standard accommodation for visitor safety and comfort. Higher standard (hardened) tracks are also more appropriate for environmental protection and walker safety and comfort in this location.

The low price elasticity of walking experiences demonstrated by the Myriad Research suggests that there is room to move with the price points for each accommodation style and walk type (guided vs unguided). It is important, however, to keep in mind the equity of access across all walking groups (including families and lower income community members). Future market testing (e.g. during project Stage 2) should test varying price points to understand what generates the optimal financial and public benefit outcomes.

5.8 West Coast community testing of the walk options

In late 2020, SGS Economics and Planning, as part of the development of this report, undertook an additional online survey to test the refined Next Iconic Walk options (and benchmark) with the local West Coast community. The survey was designed to understand community perceptions of the walk options, their support for each, the perceived impacts on the community, and the benefits and costs of each. The results have helped to inform the non-monetised costs and benefits of the Next Iconic Walk.

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Although the survey was advertised to West Coast residents, primarily through the West Coast Council website, it gained attention from previous intrastate, interstate and international visitors to this region. The survey received 202 online responses, and four hard-copy responses.

Importantly, this survey is not based on a statistically representative sample, especially in relation to respondents from outside the region.

Findings The majority of survey respondents were Tasmanian visitors to the West Coast. Only 11% (22) of respondents were West Coast residents, despite being the survey’s target audience. Survey findings have therefore been aggregated into two groups: findings from West Coast residents (22), and findings from visitors (184). Findings from both responder groups cannot be considered in any way representative, particularly findings from West Coast residents, due to low response numbers.

FIGURE 12: SPLIT OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS

Source: SGS Economics and Planning: Question 2: Please tick the following box(es) that describe you. I am:

Twelve West Coast residents were supportive of the walks, while five were not. Overall, the benchmark: ‘New and improved day walks’ gained a higher rate of support across all respondent types relative to the multi-day options.

Survey respondents were offered a text field to explain their reasons for supporting or not supporting the options. A summary of these are provided below. Resident respondents highlight the opportunities the tracks bring to the West Coast, as well as the historical/cultural significance. Importantly, a key concern raised involves the risk of environmental degradation of areas surrounding (and as a result of) any new walk infrastructure in the Tyndall Range. Other concerns included the weather conditions, the cost of the infrastructure, and that the track should not be monopolised by private operators.

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TABLE 7: RESPONSES TO LEVEL OF SUPPORT QUESTION

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Supportive Interesting track potential linking to an old cultural/historical track.

Brings visitors to West Coast.

Builds West Coast’s capacity to being regarded as a multi-sport/adventure destination.

Not Supportive Extreme environmental vulnerabilities.

Changeable and challenging weather conditions.

New walks are not needed – improvement to existing infrastructure investments is needed.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Supportive Support for day walks – provides the “best of both worlds” for relatively inexperienced walkers, and will spend more money on local businesses.

Not Supportive Diminished natural and wilderness values (environmental degradation).

Infrastructure (mountain bike tracks, helicopter landing pads) incompatible with geography.

Insufficient budget to build new walking track to attract tourists and to maintain tracks.

Perceived low economic return on investment.

Perception of the PWS to fall short of delivering on tracks.

Commercial/private monopolisation of tourist companies.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020: QN: Can you please explain your answer? *Views from visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

The ability to attract additional visitors exhibited a similar spread of responses to the overall levels of support for each option. Eleven West Coast residents expected the West Coast to gain “Significantly more visitors” from any of the walks, while visitors to the area were more divided about the likelihood.

Respondents suggested costs and benefits that could flow from a new walking experience in the Tyndall Range. Following the above trend, and as to be expected, the West Coast community suggested most of the benefits. These, along with the perceived costs, are discussed further in section 11.

The full suite of insights collated from the online survey can be found in section 13.

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Implications for this project Although the findings from this survey cannot be considered in any way representative due to the low response rate from West Coast residents, it can be seen that those local West Coast community members who did participate in the survey perceive many benefits of the development of a new walking experience in the Tyndall Range, with the majority highly supportive of all options being developed.

5.9 Engagement with the Tasmanian Aboriginal community

Cultural Heritage Management Australia (CHMA) managed the Tasmanian Aboriginal community consultation program for the PWS. CHMA:

• researched the ethno-historical Aboriginal social organisation in Tasmania, the North West Region, and the Tyndall Range study area • researched a chronology of occupation for the West Coast of Tasmania, Aboriginal settlement and subsistence patterns on the North West Coast, and registered Aboriginal sites in the vicinity of the study area • provided a predicative model of Aboriginal site type distribution for the study area • invited 10 Tasmanian Aboriginal community organisations to participate in the Feasibility Study and discuss the project: • to identify and understand the significance and value of the Tyndall Range as a cultural landscape • to ascertain the significance of the Tyndall Range to the Aboriginal community • to document the views regarding the proposed development corridor • to seek input that will improve any development • to seek advice as to whether there are any constraints to development, and how they can be managed.

Eight Tasmanian Aboriginal organisations responded to the invitation, and six agreed to meet CHMA, in March-April 2021, and talk about the study area and proposed project.

In summary: • The Aboriginal community consultation program, together with the background ethnographic and archaeological research undertaken for this project, has not identified any fundamental reasons that would prevent the project progressing to the next stage of planning. • As part of the future planning stages for this project, a detailed Aboriginal heritage assessment should be undertaken for the proposed walking track alignment and associated infrastructure footprint. • A detailed Aboriginal cultural interpretation plan should be developed for the project in consultation with the Tasmanian Aboriginal community, and Tasmanian Aboriginal community members with appropriate levels of skills and experience. • The PWS should continue to consult with, and keep, the Aboriginal community informed during the project. • The organisations that took part in the consultation have identified employment opportunities, capacity building, and potential Joint Venture arrangements as key issues. These should be considered, and strategies implemented, as part of the development (PWS, 2021).

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5.10 Rapid engagement with walking sector providers

Claire Ellis Consulting (CEC) conducted rapid early engagement with selected walking sector providers offering products in the area, and a few West Coast adventure specialists, in December 2020 to January 2021. (CEC) asked them about the opportunities and issues they perceive for their businesses from the creation of a PWS-developed new multi-day walk out of Queenstown.

A web for walking service providers in Tasmania was conducted to create an initial contact list, and she also gained further inputs from:

• West by North West Regional Tourism • West Coast Tourism • Tourism Tasmania • West Coast Council • Destination South.

During the work, West Coast specialist outdoor adventure businesses (bike, paddle and climbing) were added to the list. Two recreational entities were contacted, Paddle Tasmania and Climbing Tasmania, and a consultancy currently developing a climbing strategy for the West Coast Council, to ensure non-commercial but organised aspects (club and social group use) was included.

Findings The operators were very appreciative of the opportunity to provide input and hear about the work. There was a general feel that they are largely not consulted (in the past, as it relates to other developments) about future opportunities.

The businesses could be characterised as highly responsive, structuring their businesses in and around the gaps and opportunities in the market. Most commented that the walking market in Tasmania (and elsewhere) has grown rapidly and is continuing to change, so they flex and deliver to market demand, building custom solutions to queries, although most also have set products in the market. For instance, one of the Australia-wide walking companies noted “we let the walk fully develop and then watch other companies start up and develop their product on that walk and can see what works before we design our own with a twist (if it fits our market)”.

There was broad interest in a West Coast multi-day walk. A new walk was noted as able to provide high appeal, and would act as a drawcard, but it was also noted a walk would not suit all walker types. Operators were asked which of the three walk options they would prefer in terms of building their own business, and about flow-on effects for local towns.

Comments included:

• Be bold and push the unique offer of the Tyndall Range. • The journey is important. Build a really good track, take advantage of every viewpoint. • High quality and comfortable accommodation will work best in these conditions. • The length of the walk will matter. But if the purpose is not to just come, do the walk and go, the destination rather than the walk characteristics are critical. • The issue with longer trips is that guests are bussed in, do the trip, and then bussed out; locals benefit little from the ‘iconic’ profile of the walk. • Currently, the five-day walks are slightly more popular [with their clients], and those visitors are searching for experiences. • Build for groups. SGS ECONOMICS AND PLANNING: TASMANIA’S NEXT ICONIC WALK FEASIBILITY STUDY 48

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• Better to build an iconic short walk that can be built into existing tour packages, but creates extra nights on the West Coast. • The high quality of other local day walks was noted – Mt Owen, Mt Murchison, Montezuma Falls, Mt Donaldson, and others were mentioned. • Degradation of the landscape needs to be considered: how will the PWS keep walkers on track as they can easily wander off in many places and will create new paths and eyesores?

Importantly, the increasing social licence issues around commercialisation and built infrastructure within parks has also created wariness by some operators. While it was not raised by the interviewer, most stakeholders explicitly noted the need to keep Tasmania’s walking reputation strong, and disagreed with models such as private huts, specifically noting they did not want this to occur on a new walk.

“Wouldn’t want to see bushwalkers locked out of places they used to be able to go by adding private huts and operators and making it only available to people who pay. Most stakeholders would support free for all or accepts user pays for hut and camping free; exclusivity is the issue” (Interview Respondent).

Some raised aspects surrounding current developments and the need to be more careful about Tasmania’s long-term brand reputation. Virtually all agreed with parks huts and shelters being built, noting the weather and need for safety and security. Comments included, “It’s good it is being built as it is not a national park, so Parks is listening now” (Interview Respondent). A full summary of the engagement undertaken by Claire Ellis Consulting can be found in section 13.

Implications for this project Broad interest and support exists within the operator group for a West Coast multi-day walk.

There remains a real concern about private companies monopolising walks; this has now been raised separately by both the community and operators. It will be important to consider the equity implications when testing variables such as accommodation and experience price point, and exclusive access to infrastructure.

5.11 Estimate of likely visitation per year for each option

Market demand testing was completed in stages. As it relates to estimates of visitation (walk bookings), subsequent surveys focused to fill knowledge gaps.

Option 1 (through walk from Anthony Road to Lake Margaret Power Station) The Myriad survey provides a reliable estimate of demand for Option 1 (A).

If Option 1 (three-day, two-night though walk) was developed with a higher standard track and roofed accommodation and camping, then:

• 2,783 to 4,829 (median 3,806) visitors per year are very likely or likely to book and stay in roofed accommodation • 934 to 2,362 (median 1,648) visitors per year are very likely or likely to book and camp.

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The total median estimate is 5,450 departures per year (late spring to early autumn), contingent on successful promotion

Option 2 (return walk to Lake Huntley) The Myriad survey presented Option 2 (E) with four other options.

If Option 2 (E) (two-day, one-night return walk) was developed with a higher standard track and roofed accommodation and camping, then:

• 220 to 517 (median 368) visitors per year are very likely or likely to book and stay in roofed accommodation • 58 to 405 (median 231) per year are very likely to likely to book and camp.

The total median estimate is 599 departures per year (late spring to early autumn), contingent on successful promotion.

BDA retested likely demand for Option 2 to eliminate possible bias due to Option 1 (A) being a more popular choice, and to test whether the leisure market might find the Option 2 walk appealing. The leisure market’s interest is broader than walking, but includes walking, and is a larger market (about 13 million Australians) than the more focused walker market.

The BDA testing found 7% of those surveyed (n=442) would travel from interstate specifically for Option 2 (staying in roofed accommodation), 24% said they would walk the track if they were already in Tasmania, and 27% if in Tasmania and on the West Coast. BDA indicated that conversion of intent (these percentages) to actual travel to Tasmania is about 14%. Using this conversion, the percentages are 1.0, 3.4 and 3.8 (8.2%), which suggests a total interested market of 1,066,000.

Two factors must be considered: (1) the survey isn’t a competitive comparison – it doesn’t test the comparative appeal of Option 2 against other walk or holiday offers (in Tasmania, Australia or overseas), and (2) the total interested will convert to bookings over many years, possibly decades (they won’t all turn up in year 1). To account for this, we know for the Tasmanian Visitor Survey data that 41,112 interstate visitors completed a multi-day walk in 2018-19, which is 0.31% of the leisure market size (13 million). This suggests that a total of 3,304 (1,066,000 x 0.0031) per year may book Option 2 (roofed accommodation and camping) and, of these, 403 would travel from interstate specifically for Option 2.

Combining the Myriad and BDA results suggests 599-3,304 departures per year (staying in roofed accommodation and camping), and the median is 1,951.

The benchmark (day walks) BDA found that 9% would travel from interstate specifically for the two new day walks, 30% said they would walk the track if they were already in Tasmania, and 33% if in Tasmania and on the West Coast. Using the conversion gives 1.3%, 4.2% and 4.6% (10.1%), which suggests a total interested market of 1,313,000. These walks are 4+ hours duration, and 336,090 (25%) interstate visitors participated in this length of walk, and 176,447 (52.5%) of these bushwalking (TVS), which is 1.4% of the total leisure market. This suggests that a total of 17,821 (1,313,000 x 0.014) per year may use the two new walks (8,910 each walk) and, of these, 2,366 would travel from interstate specifically for the benchmark.

For comparison

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• There is an existing low standard difficult track providing assess from Anthony Road to the Mt Tyndall plateau; about 1,000 people use it a year, the majority in spring to autumn. • The walker numbers for other West Coast part-day or full-day walks (description included in Appendix): • Bird River (Kelly Basin) 1,189 • Mt Murchison 2,093 • Donaghys Lookout 7,879 • Montezuma Falls 13,894 • Horsetail Falls 21,948 • Nelson Falls 33,758.

Estimated visitation for all options

TABLE 8: SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED VISITATION

Option Number of visitors staying in roofed accommodation + camping Low estimate Median estimate High estimate 1 3,717 5,450 7,191 2 599 1,951 3,304 Number of visitors per year visiting two new tracks Benchmark 17,821

Source: BDA, 2021 and Myriad Research, 2020 Whilst the benchmark delivers the highest number of potential visitors, it must be noted that this option provides little difference from the existing day walk products on offer and does not provide as high economic benefit to Tasmania as the other options due to different visitation patterns and regional spending.

5.12 Project constraints

Weather The Tyndall Range is usually cold, wet and cloudy (BOM). Independent walkers value flexibility to plan for forecast warmer and dryer weather, during the year and a season. This is a consideration for the design of any booking system that is likely to be required to manage peak loads and crowding during peak use periods.

A frequently repeated statement about the Tyndall Range is that conditions can be uncomfortable and unsafe for inexperienced or poorly prepared walkers, and a common disappointment is not seeing the main scenic attraction. It must be noted however, that the attractions proposed by the Tyndall’s walk are not all currently accessible and the proposed route alignment allows for views of these attractions in varying weather conditions.

Visitor research (PWS), surveys (Tourism Tasmania) and visitor records (PWS) show that the majority of bushwalkers avoid the West Coast and sub-alpine areas in cold seasons; for example, on the Overland Track (40 km east) in October (2017) there were 369 walkers. This rises to the peak in December- January, with an average of 1,025 walkers a month, and drops to 76 in May (PWS, 2020).

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For comparison, Tasmania’s West Coast is milder and dryer than Milford Sound on the west coast of NZ’s South Island (Wikipedia, 2019), which receives about two to three times more rain. Visitor numbers to Milford Sound have risen since 2012 (457,000); they were 875,000 in 2017, and were projected in 2019 to be more than 1 million (Radio NZ, 2018). The Milford Track walk has 14,000 visitors (capped at 40 departures a day during the booking season) (AA NZ). Wet places can be popular.

Existing popular Tasmanian West Coast visitor attractions like the Wilderness Railway and Gordon River Cruises respond to the weather by offering shelter.

The Tyndall Range, although unlikely to be a first choice walking destination from first look, could be a successful one with appropriate responses. Such responses include constructing a series of reflection and refuge shelters along the track and relatively short walking distances between huts to enable walkers to escape the elements should they require it. Closure during winter could also be considered and has been modelled in the BCR.

Physical access Launceston is the closest Tasmanian gateway to the Tyndall Range by plane. Queenstown is accessible from Launceston by car, around a 3.5 hour drive. There is an infrequent public bus service (Tassielink Transport, 2020). Devonport, a vehicle gateway from the Spirit of Tasmania port, is a 2.25 hour drive. A new air service has recently started between Hobart and Strahan. For some visitors, this will make the West Coast more accessible.

For short stay visitors travelling to and from the West Coast, time and distance will be a significant consideration. Fifty per cent of Overland Track visitors surveyed (n=1,091) relied on bus transport to get to and from the Overland Track (PWS, 2020). For comparison, 6% used a rental vehicle, and 22% their or another’s vehicle (PWS, 2020). A reliable, frequent (daily) and affordable public transport option will be critical to the success of the new Tyndall Range walk. This is a commercial opportunity (particularly for businesses operating out of Queenstown), and also to make this an attractive part of the experience.

Workforce and existing management facilities About 1,800 residents live in Queenstown, and 660 in Strahan, providing a potential workforce. There are PWS facilities in Strahan and Queenstown, and there are town services and accommodation available at both locations.

5.13 Project benefits and outcomes

It is well understood that (overnight) tracks can generate a range of benefits, especially for more remote communities with a narrow economic base. As part of the analysis, the following cost and benefit items were monetised or qualified for each of the options using a cost-benefit analysis.

Items monetised are construction and maintenance costs, the benefits from additional visitor spending, the enjoyment gained by the community from a new recreational asset, and the resulting health benefits from more active lifestyles. Items that have been included with rigour, but qualitatively (i.e. researched and explored, but not given a monetary value due to the lack of monetisation techniques, or to avoid double counting with other items), are also included in the table.

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TABLE 9: COSTS AND BENEFITS

Quantifiable Costs Quantifiable Benefits - Construction costs. - Revenues associated with user charges. - Maintenance and operating costs. - Increased economic activity associated with rises in interstate and international tourism expenditure. - Enhanced recreational opportunities for the Tasmanian community. - Promotion of active and healthy lifestyles (health cost savings). - Benefits linked to education component of the project. - Skills development in the parks and recreation industry subsector. - Building the ‘brand value’ of Tasmania’s West Coast (and Tasmania as a whole), supporting its role as an iconic destination for nature-based tourism in particular. Qualitative costs Qualitative Benefits - Potential for environmental degradation and - Opportunity for renewal of the Queenstown loss of natural values because of incursion township, with new business opportunities into natural areas. triggering investment in local businesses. - An increase in the number and quality of jobs in the West Coast region, potentially resulting in higher wages and salaries for local residents.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning In addition, the direct and indirect economic impacts of each option were assessed using input-output modelling. For each option the median estimated planning and construction cost is used for economic modelling, the estimated project is stated in other sections of this report.

Option 1 will cost $35.07 million to plan and construct with high standard accommodation (median scenario). As a self-contained standalone development, Option 1 is expected to deliver $8 million in economic output, $2.6 million in value add to the economy, and 39.6 FTE jobs annually by 2036. The benefit-cost ratio of Option 1 is 1.13. This means that for every dollar spent, the Tasmanian economy receives $1.13 back in benefits, plus the unquantified benefits.

At a regional level, however, the benefits for the West Coast community are to increase the brand identity of Tasmania as a nature-based tourism destination. This benefit has not been quantified in this version of the report; however, it is expected to be significant. The higher performance of Option 1 in terms of non-monetised benefits is currently captured in the multi-criteria analysis. A conservatively quantified brand value benefit will be provided in the next iteration of this report.

Option 2 will cost $15.32 million to plan and construct with high standard accommodation (median scenario). As a self-contained standalone development, Option 2 is expected to deliver $2.9 million in economic output, $1.8 million in value add to the economy, and 14.5 FTE jobs annually by 2036. The benefit-cost ratio of Option 2 is 0.83.

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The benchmark will cost $20 million to plan and construct, and assumes visitors stay in local towns and existing accommodation. The benchmark is expected to deliver $2.3 million in economic output, $3.2 million in value add to the economy, and 13.9 FTE jobs annually by 2036. The benefit-cost ratio of the benchmark is 0.76.

Based on this analysis, SGS Economics and Planning recommends that Option 1 be pursued. Of the three options, and with the current monetised benefits, Option 1 is the only one for which the net present value of benefits would outweigh the costs.

As well as the export benefits from interstate visitors’ tourism expenditure and usage fees, important benefits will flow to Tasmanians, particularly social and educational benefits, and consumer surplus linked to local usage.

These findings should also be considered alongside the insights from market demand and segmentation analysis developed, and engagement activities undertaken as part of this project. Options 1 and 2 align with more target walker segments (Challenge Me (Overnight), Reward Seeker and Lifelong Walker) than the benchmark (Challenge Me (Day) and Lifelong Walkers).

In addition, insights from market demand assessments show that a through walk (Option 1) is preferred by the target multi-day walker market. The multi-criteria analysis also shows that Option 1 outperforms both Option 2 and the benchmark in terms of non-monetised benefits.

A staged development approach that will eventually deliver a through walk to the Tyndall Range, albeit in a longer timeframe, may offer budget and risk management options.

It should also be noted that two underlying concerns exist within the community:

• the risk of the walk infrastructure being monopolised by private operators, creating an equity imbalance between those who can afford to purchase high-end walking experiences, and the remaining walker market • the perceived impact on the natural environment of the Tyndall Range.

Both concerns are discussed in detail, and responses suggested later in this document.

The intended benefits and outcomes of the project include:

• revenue associated with user charges • increased economic activity associated with increased interstate and international tourism expenditure • additional localised economic growth on the West Coast from intrastate tourism expenditure • enhanced recreational opportunities for the Tasmanian community • promotion of active and healthy lifestyles (resulting in health cost savings) • benefits linked to education and awareness of natural and industrial heritage values • skills development in the parks and recreation industry subsector • contribution to the ‘brand value’ of Tasmania’s West Coast and Tasmania as a whole, supporting its role as an iconic destination for nature-based tourism in particular • the opportunity for economic revival of Queenstown and surrounding townships, with new business opportunities triggering investment in local businesses • an increase in the number and quality of jobs on the West Coast, potentially resulting in higher wages and salaries for local residents.

Costs, benefits and outcomes are discussed in more detail in section 11.

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5.14 Links to government policy priorities

The development of the nature-based tourism industry in Tasmania is supported by many institutions, including Tourism Tasmania, the Department of State Growth, Tourism Industry Council Tasmania, four Regional Tourism Organisations, the 29 Local Government Areas, many Local Tourism Associations, and the Tasmania Visitor Information Network. A wide number of institutions also support the growth of outdoor recreational activities, providing opportunities for the nature-based tourism industry (such as Inland Fisheries and Marine and Safety Tasmania support for water access, Communities, Sport and Recreation and outdoor education entities).

The Tasmanian Government remains committed to its bold and ambitious vision for our visitor economy, despite recent challenges, and for a future where the visitor economy continues its important contribution to the social and economic fabric right across Tasmania.

Through the T21 Visitor Economy Action Plan 2020-2022, the Tasmanian Government is committed to long-term aspirations, and that includes putting Tasmania’s regional towns and destinations at the heart of the visitor experience.

The T21 Tasmanian Visitor Economy Strategy 2015-2020 (T21) contends that “Tasmania’s globally renowned natural environment is one of the State’s most valuable assets and underpins the State’s reputation as a must-visit destination. Our World Heritage Wilderness, National Parks, coastal and aquatic experiences, and unique wildlife, are fundamental drivers of visitation. Our nature-based and eco-tourism experiences connect visitors with these assets and also drive visitation into our regional areas … A strong and vibrant culture is at the heart of any visitor economy (Tasmanian Government and the Tourism Industry Council Tasmania, p. 6)”.

The T21 Strategy has a focus on three key objectives: an enhanced tourism focus for the PWS, sustainable experience delivery, and enterprise and economic activity. The plan reflects the importance of sustainable commercial tourism and includes a commitment to support the development of appropriate, demand-driven, commercially successful public and private opportunities for sustainable and high-quality visitor experiences. It aims to identify opportunities and attract private capital investment in nature-based tourism activities and infrastructure, both in and around Crown land, parks, and reserves. Importantly, the T21 Strategy specifically mentions the pursuit of Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk on the West Coast, a commitment supported through a $20 million investment.

5.15 Prioritisation and direct links to strategic asset management

The project is a Tasmanian Liberal Government election commitment and priority economic development project. The PWS is responsible for developing and operating the walk. Financial self-funding a project objective, allowing walk income to be invested to operate the walk and maintain infrastructure (assets). Self-funding is achievable: The Three Capes Track, which is PWS-developed and operated, is an example. Next Iconic Walk visitor fees have been calculated for this Feasibility Study considering market expectations, participation estimates (visitor numbers), and expected operating costs to achieve self- funding.

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6 RISKS AND DEPENDENCIES

6.1 Risks

Project stages 2-4 SGS has developed the following risk assessment, with key inputs from the PWS.

The risks for the Next Iconic Walk project are grouped into the following categories:

• Stage 2 Proposal development (planning) • Stage 3 Construction/production • Stage 4 Transition to operations.

It is important to note that there are risks common to all projects of this type, and those specific to the Next Iconic Walk. All are manageable with a combination of pre-emptive and remedial responses. The budget and schedules in this Feasibility Study include contingencies, but not for extraordinary or extreme circumstances.

The framework below has been used to determine the level of exposure to each risk.

TABLE 10: RISK EXPOSURE FRAMEWORK

1 2 3 4 5

Negligible impact Minor impact Moderate impact Significant Impact Severe Impact

5

Very high Low risk Moderate risk High risk Extreme risk Extreme risk likelihood

4

High Likelihood Minimum risk Low risk Moderate risk High risk Extreme risk

3

Moderate Minimum risk Low risk Moderate risk High risk High risk Likelihood

2

Low Likelihood Minimum risk Low risk Low risk Moderate risk High risk

1

Very Low Minimum risk Minimum risk Low risk Moderate risk High risk Likelihood

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The risk matrix below uses this framework to identify the overall exposure level for each risk, before the suggested pre-emptive and remedial actions (unmanaged risk), and the managed risk exposure.

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TABLE 11: RISK MATRIX

No. Risk Pre- Pre- Overall Risk Pre-emptive actions Remedial actions Risk exposure response response Exposure after actions Likelihood Impact (1-5) (1-5) Stage 2 Proposal development (planning) 2.1 Consultant and staff unavailability (e.g. 3 4 High risk Market test consultant availability and Adjust schedules. Low competing work and workload) advertise staff positions well in advance of schedule requirements. Schedules allow contingency for delays/unavailability, rather than assuming overly optimistic work rates. Contracts include performance and specified persons. 2.2 Site access (e.g. remote and isolated, with 5 3 High risk Schedules allow contingency for Adjust schedules. Moderate seasonal restrictions) constraints, rather than assuming overly optimistic work rates. 2.3 Approval delays (e.g. appeals) 4 4 High risk Ensure that all development applications Undertake additional work to alleviate any Moderate are of a high quality and meet all issues identified in the approvals process. approval process guidelines. Community consultation to identify issues and, where possible, resolve/respond prior to applying. 2.4 Procurement (e.g. availability of 5 4 Extreme risk Work collaboratively with contractors Use the opportunity to expand the skill base High contractors, overpriced tenders, lack of and tenderers to understand their of Tasmania by exploring alternative market interest e.g. due to location) interest, risks and fears for the project. contractors, or seek interest from interstate, and/or PWS employs staff to construct. 2.5 Process decision delays 4 3 Moderate risk Schedules allow contingency for Alter project timelines. Low delays/unavailability, rather than

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No. Risk Pre- Pre- Overall Risk Pre-emptive actions Remedial actions Risk exposure response response Exposure after actions Likelihood Impact (1-5) (1-5) assuming overly optimistic decision processes. 2.6 Political priorities change 2 4 Moderate risk Ensure bipartisan political support for Communicate the project’s benefits with Low the project at all levels of government. dissenting political leaders. 2.7 Incompatible land uses (mining 3 Unable to Work with industry and relevant Communicate the project’s benefits with exploration and activities) assess government departments to understand industry leaders and negotiate a compromise. the mining industry’s works and exploration program for the region. Stage 3 Construction/production 3.1 Site-related risk (e.g. latent conditions) 3 Unable to Pre-planning will ensure that assess appropriate site-related risks are minimised. 3.2 Future supply chain disruptions (current 3 3 Moderate risk Schedules allow contingency for Identify alternative solutions and/or suppliers. Low shortages noted) (e.g. affecting labour, constraints, rather than assuming overly Modify timeline. equipment and/or material supply, such optimistic work rates. as supply strikes and shortages) Identify critical components and order early. 3.3 Near misses and injuries (e.g. workplace 4 5 Extreme risk Hazard risk assessment and responses as Incident reporting. Modify work practices. Low incident) per regulations, policies and procedures. First aid. 3.4 Poor weather (e.g. high rainfall and snow, 5 4 Extreme risk Schedule construction for late spring- Reschedule work. Modify timeline. Moderate cloud) early autumn. Prefabricate (where possible). Preposition material. High quality onsite shelter and services. Schedules allow contingency for constraints, rather than assuming overly optimistic work rates. 3.5 Access (e.g. remote and isolated) 5 4 Extreme risk Pre-construction works to, if possible, Walk to/from site. Low improve road access and establish Preposition materials.

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No. Risk Pre- Pre- Overall Risk Pre-emptive actions Remedial actions Risk exposure response response Exposure after actions Likelihood Impact (1-5) (1-5) helicopter depots and pads, and clear track routes. 3.6 No existing infrastructure (e.g. water, 5 4 Extreme risk Provide portable temporary services. Respond as required. Low sewage, power, gas) 3.7 Environmental hazards (e.g. bushfire, 5 4 Extreme risk Emergency management plans. Evacuate or shelter. Low storms, exposure, bites, and stings) Clear track routes to provide alternative escape (if air transport not possible). Pre-construction works to establish onsite work bases and protection. 3.8 Environmental restrictions (e.g. approval 5 3 High risk Pre-planning will ensure contractors are Work halted until resolution found. Low condition, work zone restrictions) aware of environmental restrictions and are included in work plan. 3.9 Environmental impacts (e.g. 5 4 Extreme risk Comply with approval conditions. Pre- Construction halted until solution in place. Low contamination, losses, spread of pests, construction training. weeds and diseases) Pre-position washdown station, spill kits etc. 3.10 Impact on heritage (Aboriginal or 5 4 Extreme risk Surveys identify locations. Avoid Unanticipated discovery protocol. Low European artefact finds) locations where possible. 3.11 Lack of long-term contractor 4 3 Moderate risk Rent/buy suitable accommodation prior Drive in/out. Moderate accommodation in surrounding towns to construction. Supply portable temporary accommodation. Explore local accommodation options under long term arrangements. Stage 4 Transition to operations stage (first year of operation) 4.1 Product competition (e.g. more attractive 1 2 Low risk Sound market research undertaken, and Marketing and awareness effort to increase Low new products, visitor numbers below project only proceeds if market available use. level required for viability) and complementary with Tasmania’s tourism offer.

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No. Risk Pre- Pre- Overall Risk Pre-emptive actions Remedial actions Risk exposure response response Exposure after actions Likelihood Impact (1-5) (1-5) 4.2 Competition for media and public 2 2 Low risk Ensure a high-quality and best practice Invest additional resources. Low attention (e.g. promotion not seen/heard) marketing effort and align with broader Tasmanian tourism marketing efforts. 4.3 Market confusion or perception about 1 1 Minimum risk Ensure a high-quality and best practice Provide further information and improve Minimum product marketing effort and clear walk clarity. information on PWS website. 4.4 Workforce shortages (e.g. no or little 3 3 Moderate risk Do an employment study prior to Offer incentives to attract a workforce for the Moderate interest in living on West Coast) construction to ensure local skills match walk or invest in training local people for the for the project. project. 4.5 Staff accommodation (e.g. suitable, 4 3 Moderate risk Assist staff to find suitable Drive in/out. Minimum available) accommodation in advance of opening. Construct staff accommodation. 4.6 Opening delayed (e.g. with existing 4 4 High risk Don’t commit to opening dates or take Offer refunds, change of dates, or alternative Minimum bookings) bookings until high certainty that walking experience. product is ready. Run a soft launch for locals to ensure success of opening and reduce the risk of interstate/international arrivals missing their booking. 4.7 Emergencies (e.g. evacuation) 5 4 Extreme risk Emergency management plan in place. Evacuate or shelter. Moderate 4.8 Supply availability (e.g. water, gas) 3 3 Moderate risk Redundancy in design. Source supply from alternative source. Low Ensure supplier contracts and contingencies in place. 4.9 Novel/custom solutions do not work or 3 3 Moderate risk Existing facility post-occupancy Investigate and implement other solutions. Low work as intended (e.g. remote services) assessment (solutions and lessons). Design prototypes. Soft opening to test systems. 4.10 Infrastructure failures 3 3 Moderate risk Ensure high quality construction and Ensure safety of all staff and workers and then Low maintenance regime. fix infrastructure.

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No. Risk Pre- Pre- Overall Risk Pre-emptive actions Remedial actions Risk exposure response response Exposure after actions Likelihood Impact (1-5) (1-5) Back up critical systems. 4.11 Incompatible land uses (e.g. mining 3 Unable to Work with industry and relevant Communicate the project’s benefits with exploration and activities) change the assess government departments to understand industry leaders and negotiate a compromise. visitor experience adversely the mining industry’s works and exploration program for the region. 4.12 Lack of quality partners (e.g. operators of 3 4 High Risk Form partnerships and expression of Invest in and skill up local tourism operators. Low dependent or support activities) interests (EOIs) with local tourism businesses early. 4.13 Service delivery below standards and 3 4 High Risk Quality assured through pre-planning Work with operators to improve performance. Low expectations and clear setting of standards, and thorough procurement process.

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Risks with pre-emptive and remedial actions are considered minimum to moderate and manageable. The exception is construction contractor procurement, which is high risk (discussed at section 9, Tender).

The documentation and process to secure Tasmania's Next Iconic Walk are aligned with typical developments of this nature. Also, there have been successful business cases to date (e.g. Three Capes Track).

6.2 Technical standards and legislative requirements

Desktop analysis and field surveys have yet to identify any critical impediments that would prevent all walk options progressing, subject to detailed assessments being completed and obtaining formal approvals during project stage 2.

The development of a walk and associated tourism infrastructure is consistent with the reserve status of a Regional Reserve and Conservation Area.

The area is not subject to a PWS management plan; is not part of the TWWHA; and occurs on land managed by the PWS and Hydro Tasmania. The area falls within the State’s Mt Read Strategic Prospectivity Zone, and the proposal complies with the Mining (Strategic Prospectivity Zones) Act 1993. In principle support from existing mineral exploration lease holders was obtained and confirmed during the feasibility study timeframe. Stakeholder input has guided the proposed walking location; walking routes east of the Tyndall Range have been selected as they are less sensitive compared to neighbouring areas.

There are successful precedents and models for developing new, and upgrading multi-day walks (through, return and part-full day) in Tasmania. The PWS has decades of relevant experience constructing and maintaining visitor infrastructure and operating business enterprises, including the 60 Great Short Walks, South Coast Track, Overland Track, and Three Capes Track. Based upon that experience, there are no known technical and legislative reasons that would prevent the development of the Next Iconic Walk.

6.3 External conditions and critical success factors

External conditions The main risk factors for the Next Iconic Walk project arise from challenges that come with the physical location of the Tyndall Range, specifically that it is a relatively remote, isolated, cold and wet location.

With appropriate responses to the physical constraints of the Tyndall Range, there is the opportunity to create a highly successful walking experience. A combination of responses will increase and broaden the new walk’s appeal, for example:

• (optional) guided support for more inexperienced walkers • hire of appropriate weather gear to ensure all walkers are fully prepared for the climatic conditions • higher quality tracks (on the Overland Track, the most common issue for walkers was muddy or eroded tracks) (PWS, 2018) • highly serviced (warm, dry, comfortable, safe) accommodation

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• promotion, expectation management, and facilitation of weather-specific responses (for example, clear weather allows panoramic views, overcast and stormy conditions create drama and atmosphere (good for photography), wet conditions will highlight colour and detail in the area’s distinct vegetation and geology) • offering choice of activities, like walking, water-based activities (e.g. swimming in and kayaking on lakes), relaxation and social activities in the accommodation) (PWS, 2020) • ability to add further walks – side walks or add-ons as part of a West Coast walking package, altering the ‘experience’ offering (market testing shows walkers want side walk options or longer walk options).

Most multi-day walks in Tasmania, and many in Australia, operate seasonally. It is suggested that a five-to-six-month walking season (spring-summer-autumn) in the Tyndall Range would be appropriate, so as to capitalise on the most favourable weather conditions. This could however be extended to a nine month season if demanded. Current use of the Overland track indicates that this is an emerging trend.

In addition to the site constraints, the multi-day walking sector is maturing rapidly and is expected to go through substantial further changes due to more product offerings coming online throughout Australia (Ellis, 2020). This creates a number of considerations for the Next Iconic Walk project.

• Product differentiation is becoming vital as the marketplace becomes more competitive. • The rapidly changing supply and demand aspects are demonstrating the need to create long-term flexibility/upgrades in products to allow innovation. For instance, built infrastructure can become outdated and not meet contemporary preferences. • There is growth in the number, style and size of companies offering multi-day walks. • Design considerations for this walk will impact how it fits in the suite of walking offers available across Australia (and Tasmania), i.e. its competitive positioning. • Design and management considerations will also impact how the walk fits with experience offers around the West Coast that attract groups and families to do different activities in the region.

Critical success factors These are the critical success factors for the project and are linked to the project’s key performance indicators in section 12.

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TABLE 12: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

Visitor The walk has the potential to be the attraction or reason visitors choose to visit Tasmania.

The walk offers achievable adventure – is value for money, and the duration is consistent with the visitor’s available time.

Weather risks are managed appropriately, do not adversely impact on the visitor’s experience, and become a feature of the product’s brand.

The walk meets and exceeds the visitor’s expectations, further building the Tasmanian brand.

Environment The walk can be developed sustainably – within constraints, and by managing impacts.

Visitor numbers create an acceptable level of operational impact.

Any displacement of existing visitors can be managed.

Economic The walk is developed within budget.

The walk attracts target visitors and numbers – considering acceptable environmental impacts and community acceptance.

The walk is developed with a sustainable market advantage – has enduring appeal.

There is demonstrated potential local job creation, retention and growth.

The economic potential of neighbouring/nearby areas is not diminished (such as Lake Margaret opportunities, and potential mining exploration to the east of the planned walk).

The walk clearly adds to the growing adventure-based hub on the West Coast, supporting the further development of other businesses.

Community The walk has solid government support.

The walk has a high level of community support, including Aboriginal, West Coast and Tasmanian.

The walk addresses issues raised by the community.

The development of the walk is consistent with land tenure and park/reserve objectives.

Operational The chosen option is financially viable.

The walk can be managed in the long-term.

Source: PWS, 2020 and SGS Economics and Planning.

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7 PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION

7.1 Implementation strategy

A separate project plan (separate document) explains in detail how the project will be managed. In summary, the PWS is managing a four stage project. • Stage 1 is the Feasibility Study (that this document reports on). • Stage 2, subject to a feasible preferred option being supported, will design the infrastructure, seek development approvals, and procure/engage the means to construct the walk. • Stage 3 will construct the walk, set up the business enterprise that will operate it, and market the walk to visitors. • Stage 4 will complete all construction contractual requirements and the transition to a long-term operational business enterprise.

The governance structure is as follows:

FIGURE 13: GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE

Source: PWS, 2021 The project is required to comply with all legal requirements and be planned, delivered and operated in accordance with the policies and processes of the Tasmanian Government; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment; and the PWS.

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7.2 Organisational change

The PWS is funded to and manages projects and operational work each year; this project is part of normal business.

7.3 Resources

The PWS is able to plan, deliver and operate the new walk using a combination of current and new staff (funded through revenue from the walk), and external consultants, contractors and suppliers.

7.4 Stakeholder analysis

The following stakeholder analysis matrix (Table 13) has been developed to be consistent with the Core Values for the Practice of Public Participation (International Association for Public Participation – IAP2). The values state that public participation: • is based on the belief that those who are affected by a decision have a right to be involved in the decision-making process • includes the promise that the public's contribution will influence the decision • promotes sustainable decisions by recognising and communicating the needs and interests of all participants, including decision-makers • seeks out and facilitates the involvement of those affected by or interested in a decision • seeks input from participants in designing how they participate • provides participants with the information they need to participate in a meaningful way • communicates to participants how their input affected the decision.

There are broadly five levels of community engagement (IAP2). Any given engagement will occur at one of these levels, where the level is selected that most suits the aims and context of the engagement as discussed below. The higher levels of engagement typically employ elements of the lower levels as part of the overall process.

The overall communication goal will be somewhere on the above spectrum of public participation. In most cases, adaptation projects are restricted to ‘informing’, ‘consulting’, ‘involving’ and ‘collaborating’.

Informing would be regarded as a minimum where a project is being developed for any given location.

Consulting would be considered the minimum desirable for the development of any policy response or proposed regulatory changes or physical works, allowing for feedback on proposed actions.

Involving allows a greater scope for participants to offer ideas, critique options that do not address their needs or values, and have an iterative role in refining solutions. It uses many of the same tools as consulting, but would have more rounds of contact as the project proceeds. Increased input has the potential to produce a more refined and widely supported solution.

Collaborating opens participation further, including having a greater role in problem definition and framing, information gathering, and problem-solving. Active involvement would need to start earlier in the project and be sustained with repeated contact and discussion up to the final decision. In addition to workshops and meetings, participants might sit on committees with specific assignments, or be represented on information-gathering working groups.

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Empowerment permits participants to determine the preferred solution. The extent to which this is achievable or desirable needs to be considered with care. Strategic planning decision-making needs to consider a wide range of interests, beyond just the immediately affected community.

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TABLE 13: STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS MATRIX

Stakeholder Role Benefits of involvement Level of interest Level of influence Level of impact group The stakeholder’s role and their connection What the stakeholder can bring to the What level of interest does What level of influence will the The level of impact Individuals, to the project. What expectation does the project that is of benefit, e.g. to the stakeholder group have in stakeholder have on the final that the project will sectors or stakeholder have in relation to provide feedback, to assist in planning, the final outcomes? e.g. outcome? e.g. IAP2 spectrum have on the known groups participation, information, and to clarify issues. significant, moderate. (inform, consult, involve, stakeholder, e.g. involvement in the project? e.g. to be kept collaborate, empower). significant impact, informed, to be involved in providing input. moderate impact.

Tasmanian To be kept informed Potential approval of funding over and Moderate – High Involve Significant Treasury above that which is committed. PWS (external To be kept informed Information, feedback, insights, Moderate – to increase over Inform, moving to Collaborate Moderate to project core coordination, socialisation of project. time /Empower team)

PWS Executive Strategic decision-makers Feedback, socialisation, and Moderate – High over time Collaborate Moderate endorsement of project. West Coast Community members with a potential Insights, information, feedback, word Moderate (High for some) Consult Low (High for some) business economic stake in the development of the of mouth promotion. Potential for community Next Iconic Walk more business opportunities due to involvement in the project.

West Coast/ Possible regular users of the Next Iconic Information, insights, feedback, Moderate (High for some) Consult/Involve Moderate (High for Tasmanian Walk positive word of mouth promotion. some) community Existing Commercial operators may use Next Iconic Insights, information, feedback, word Moderate (High for some) Consult Low (High for some) operators Walk infrastructure of mouth promotion. Potential for more business opportunities due to involvement in the project.

Visitors (Tas, Target users of the Next Iconic Walk that Information, insights. Moderate – High Consult Moderate Aus, INTL) may choose to extend their stay/revisit

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Source: SGS Economics and Planning

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7.5 Stakeholder management

Individuals and groups have contributed ideas and reviewed and identified important issues for consideration. The PWS has proactively sought input and welcomed direct contact. Conversations started during the Feasibility Study will continue through the project’s second stage. Stakeholders include: • Tasmanians (individuals and groups) • West Coast residents and businesses • people (living locally and interstate) with an interest in travel and walking • interest groups • commercial tourism operators • industry (non-tourism) • government.

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8 MARKETS

8.1 Market research

Market research was completed in four stages to understand international, interstate and Tasmanian tourism trends and competition, and to test interest in specific walking products.

Individuals are spoilt for walking destinations and travel the world (current restrictions excepted) to experience them. The challenge is to create a new walk in Tasmania that is a product of our unique landscapes and culture and compels people to want to travel to experience them. In a competitive industry, the experience must endure in a natural environment that thrives.

Visitors will travel for activities (experiences) that appeal to their interests (Deloitte, 2019, p. 20). The more experiences there are, and the longer it takes to do them, increases (within limits) the visitor’s length of stay. Overnight stays increase visitor spending, maximising regional benefits when local businesses (can) participate (Ellis, 2021).

Tasmania’s West Coast is a regional area. Family road trippers (domestic leisure market) and older (55+) affluent Australians, driven by convenience, affordability and the opportunity to spend quality time with friends and family, have a higher propensity to visit regional destinations; on the other hand, international (leisure) visitors to regional areas are most likely day trippers from capital cities (Deloitte, 2019).

Multi-day walking in the consumer’s mind is a broad set of options, not just a walk from A to B (C. Ellis, personal communication, 24 February 2021). Most visitors to Tasmania (690,936 or 52-53% in 2018-19) walk while here; of all visitors, 44-45% (589,633) bushwalk, 25% (335,721) prefer short walks (<2 hours), 25% (336,090) prefer walks of four hours or longer (but not overnight), and 3-4% (41,112) prefer to bushwalk overnight or longer (multi-day bushwalk market) (Tourism Tasmania, 2019b). For example, most of the 284,000 visitors (2018-2019) (PWS, 2021) to Cradle Mountain (Overland Track start) visit to view the mountain and lake, not walk the Overland Track (8,267 visitors (PWS, 2019a)). However, historic efforts and the reputation of the Overland Track have been the major reasons Cradle Mountain is known as an iconic walking destination.

Tourism Tasmania has identified challenges in developing tracks around Tasmania. These include a varying and wide range of factors, such as cool seasons; peak season loads; environmental degradation; access; competing against price; development in conservation areas; climate impacts; bushfire and fire restrictions; reality messaging for independent walkers; and maintaining Tasmania’s brand as a world-class walking destination (Tourism Tasmania, 2019).

The Tyndall Range has been chosen for its varied and dramatic landscapes, and for its links with local towns and culture. A walk in the Tyndall Range provides an opportunity to visit glacial valleys, lakes, lookouts, forest, and plains, where the legacy of geological processes can surround you. Hydropower generation adds to the area’s rich past.

Site inspections and mapping have identified 50 possible walk experiences. Each experience has a different response to issues such as climate, weather, access, topography, landscape features, environmental constraints, and stakeholder considerations. As such, each possible walk has its

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Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study associated strengths and weaknesses. Market demand testing aimed to identify walk attributes that are important and appealing to visitors, which would be later used to understand visitor interest. Testing occurred in four phases.

The first questionnaire surveyed 512 Australians to identify walking preferences and the key drivers in travelling to Tasmania for a walking holiday. The top five drivers of interstate visitation included scenery, sufficient and quality information about walks and facilities, familiarity with location, access to other activities, and branding as an attractive destination to partners (Instinct and Reason, 2019).

The second phase involved testing walk design ideas with focus groups.

The third testing phase involved surveying 814 Australians (selected for their interest in and experience walking overnight) to test six walk experiences. This included three through, two return, and one day-walk option. The physical geography of the selected area in the Tyndall Range limits the length of the walk to a three-day maximum with few, if any, alternative lengths (depending on the option) possible. Based on the geography, 50 possible options were analysed, and 6 walk experiences selected that represent common themes/walk types. The survey tested walk themes such as through and return walking routes; two-three days duration; low and high standard tracks; and low to higher prices for camping, bunk, and guided walks.

The findings showed that:

• All options had a level of appeal, but through walks are more appealing than return walks. • Of the options offered, the longer duration through walks are most appealing, with a demand for further optional side trips. • The most appealing aspect was the views, landscape and natural environment. • Heritage rated around 5-7% appeal or lower across a range of appeals for different walk options. • The three-day, two-night through walk – Option A (1) – was the most appealing for 61.3% of respondents, followed by the same walk undertaken as a two-day, two-night walk (Option B), with night one at Lake Huntley and night two at lake Margaret (11.7%). A two-day, two-night walk (Option D) from Lake Margaret to Mt Geikie East and return ranked third (9.8%). • There is demand for camping, bunk and guided experiences. The most appealing are bunks, followed by camping, and the least appealing is guided using private huts. • Walkers’ preference for camping and bunk accommodation is equally split between a low and high standard track. • Respondents who preferred the three-day, two-night through option, and were very likely to book, were most appealed to experiences catered to independent walkers that offered accommodation in bunks and on a higher standard track (42.3%). Those who are interested, but less committed, were most interested in a lower standard track. • A visitor’s preferred walk is a significant driver to travel to Tasmania and the West Coast for the majority (67-70%). • 63% of respondents indicated that day walks (with accommodation in local towns) would be a major influence on travel to the West Coast – from interstate or from other parts of Tasmania.

The fourth stage (BDA) testing as an input to visitor number estimates is discussed in section 5.

The market testing confirmed that ‘walkers’ are individuals who expect an experience specifically designed to be consistent with their unique level of experience, fitness, available time, and income. Practically, this is the difference between bush bashing for days on muddy tracks in remote locations,

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Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study sleeping in tents and requiring a high level of preparation and knowledge, compared to shorter walks on constructed tracks and staying in accommodation that provides a higher level of support (e.g. safety, protection, comfort) (PWS, 2020).

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9 TENDER

The selected option will be planned and delivered using standard project management processes. For example, procurement will be in accordance with the Tasmanian Government Procurement Guidelines.

If and when external services are required, consultants and contractors will be engaged. Consultants will provide support with planning (e.g. infrastructure design and approvals), and contractors will help with construction (e.g. track and accommodation).

Specific project procurement risk relates to industry and site conditions, including consultant and contractor availability and competitiveness. Costs are subject to project scheduling, as this is anticipated to affect the start and end dates of different construction components. Availability of labour will impact the ease of obtaining quality contractors, which may require above industry wages to be paid to ensure on-time completion. Project budgets and schedules allow contingencies for reasonable, but not extraordinary, events.

The site's remoteness and difficult conditions will influence labour participation, particularly contractors who are most affected (e.g. exposure is high). Early market research indicates consultant interest will be moderate to high. Contractors’ interest is less certain, but is likely to be low due to a competitive intra and interstate labour market. There are also few experienced contractors, in particular track workers (particularly supervisors). Track worker availability and competitiveness is high risk. The availability and competitiveness risk of contractors to build accommodation and other infrastructure is moderate to high. There are at least three Tasmanian contractors with the experience to construct accommodation in remote locations; whether they are prepared to do so on the West Coast is untested.

Strategies to minimise project risks include dividing the work up to suit the industry’s capacity, and planning for a more extended construction period. Also, the PWS will consider encouraging employment and training of West Coast locals as track workers, working with experienced track supervisors. However, it should be noted that due to physically taxing work in rough conditions, the turnover is expected to be moderate to high.

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10 TIMEFRAME

The estimated timelines for each option follow. Risk factors for achieving timelines have been included in the risk matrix provided in section 6. Construction completion estimates have been provided, considering easier and harder conditions, along with the median, to take into consideration the difficult nature of the terrain and weather conditions.

Option 1

The timelines for Option 1: The three-day, two-night through walk between Anthony Road and the Lake Margaret Power Station are provided in the table below. As shown, the earliest date expected for practical completion and transition into operations is April 2028 with easier conditions, and August 2029 if harder.

TABLE 14: TIMELINES FOR OPTION 1

Stage Start date End date

1. Feasibility Current 30 April 2021 Decision to Study proceed

2. Proposal 30 April 2021 24 July 2023 Ready for development construction

Conditions Easier Median Harder

3. Construction 25 July 2023 1 Apr 2028 5 Nov 2028 14 Aug 2029 Practical (4.7 years) (5.3 years) (6.1 years) completion

4. Transition to 1 Apr 2029 5 Nov 2029 14 Aug 2030 Final operations completion

Source: PWS, 2020

Option 2

The timelines for Option 2: The two-day, one-night return walk from Anthony Road to Lake Huntley, are provided in the table below. As shown, the earliest date expected for practical completion and transition into operations is June 2025 with easier conditions, and January 2026 if harder.

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TABLE 15: TIMELINES FOR OPTION 2

Stage Start date End date

1. Feasibility Current 30 April 2021 Decision to Study proceed

2. Proposal 30 April 24 July 2023 Ready for development 2021 construction

Conditions Easier Median Harder

3. Construction 25 July 2023 14 Jun 2025 9 Sep 2025 1 Jan 2026 Practical (1.89 years) (2.13 years) (2.44 years) completion

4. Transition to 14 Jun 2026 9 Sep 2026 2 Jan 2027 Final operations completion

Source: PWS, 2020

The benchmark

The timelines for the benchmark: Investment into existing and new day walks, is provided in the table below. As shown, the earliest date expected for practical completion and transition into operations is June 2026 with easier conditions, and March 2028 if harder. This option allows construction in stages and it would be possible to complete individual walks more quickly.

TABLE 16: TIMELINES FOR THE BENCHMARK

Stage Start date End date

1. Feasibility Current 30 April 2021 Decision to Study proceed

2. Proposal 30 April 2021 24 July 2023 Ready for development construction

Conditions Easier Median Harder

3. Construction 25 July 2023 1 Jun 2026 14 Aug 2027 17 Mar 2028 Practical (2.9 years) (4.1 years) (4.7 years) completion

4. Transition to 2 June 2027 13 August 17 March 2029 Final operations 2028 completion

Source: PWS, 2020

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11 COSTS AND BENEFITS

11.1 Capital cost (planning and construction)

The PWS has provided the estimated costs of each walk option with low, medium and high standard accommodation scenarios. Inflation during the project planning and construction has been included in all scenarios.

Each option allows for a track 0.75 (one-way)-1.2 m (two-way/return) wide, hardened (e.g. gravel, rock, durable natural surface, timber, fibre reinforced plastic), and drained for durability in a high rainfall area, for Phytophthora management, and for visitor safety and comfort (market expectation).

All roofed accommodation (Options 1 and 2) is weatherproof, separates sleeping and communal spaces, provides individual beds, pack storage, seats, tables, and a water supply and toilet.

The differences between basic, medium and high standards is higher standards and combinations of:

• higher quality (more durable (longer design life)) materials • more services (e.g. heating, lighting, sinks, hot/cold water inside) • more spaces (functions) (e.g. covered porches and decks, drying rooms, showers) • larger spaces (more area per person) • higher quality (more durable, longer design life) fixtures, fittings, furniture and equipment (e.g. cooking).

Beds are provided for 30 departures per day accommodated in 26 bunks and 4 single/twin share beds.

Tents are accommodated on double platforms with windbreaks, 10 double platforms accommodating 20 people. A roofed shared kitchen is provided.

Roofed accommodation and camping share toilets.

On-track staff accommodation is included.

Reflection and refuge shelters along the course of the tracks are included.

The benchmark, part-full day walk (new-upgraded) includes new or upgraded existing walking tracks, vehicle parking, toilets, shelters, and management and interpretation signs.

$20 million would plan and construct two new part-full day walks, one between Lake Spicer Track and Huntley Lookout, and the other between the Lake Margaret Power Station and the Dam. One or more of the existing track options in section 13 could also be upgraded, depending on the combination selected.

Case Study: Three Capes Track

For comparison, $25.3 million was provided in 2010 by the Tasmanian and Australian governments to develop the new multi-day Three Capes Track walk (excluding Feasibility Study costs between 2005 and 2010). Adjusted for inflation to 2029 (1.7-1.9% per year), when construction of Option 1 is likely to be completed, this is about $35 million.

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TABLE 17: CAPITAL COSTS FOR EACH OPTION: LOW, MEDIUM AND HIGH SCENARIOS

Option Sub option Low Medium High

1: Three-day, 1a: basic standard $25,682,515 $34,430,335 $43,171,232 two-night accommodation (all types) through walk between 1b: medium standard $26,325,944 $35,066,841 $43,807,738 Anthony Road accommodation (all types) and Lake Margaret 1c: high standard $28,079,300 $36,820,197 $45,561,093 Power Station accommodation (all types)

2: Two-day, 2a: medium standard $12,874,545 $15,317,205 $17,759,864 one-night accommodation (all types) return walk from Anthony 2b: high standard $13,723,410 $16,166,070 $18,608,730 Road to Lake accommodation (all types) Huntley

Benchmark 3: investment in two new $20,000,000 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 day walks, and upgrades to existing walks

Source: PWS, 2020

11.2 Recurrent costs

The PWS has provided the total walk cost per person by walk option required to achieve operational viability in 2028. These estimates allow for 24-30 daily visitor departures staying in roofed accommodation (depending on the option), and a six-month operating period (due to unfavourable climatic conditions for the rest of the year). These costs have been provided for 100% and 70% capacity.

TABLE 18: RECURRENT COSTS FOR EACH OPTION: WALK COST AT 100% CAPACITY VS 70% CAPACITY

Walk option ID Walk cost at 100% capacity Walk cost at 70% capacity

3-day, 2-night through 1a (basic) $387.01 $531.48

1b (medium) $576.37 $801.98

1c (high) $2,155.01 $2,560.79

2-day, 1-night return 2a (medium) $408.36 $561.99

2b (high) $1,424.64 $2,046.97

Day walks 3 No income No income

Source: PWS, 2020

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Annual operating costs provided by the PWS are outlined below. These include direct and indirect employment costs (e.g. contracted services). Options 1 and 2 at medium include host rangers (accommodation based), and high standard includes host rangers and guides.

TABLE 19: TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS BY WALK OPTION (2028)

Walk option ID Annual operating cost

3-day, 2-night through 1a (basic) $1,840,553

1b (medium) $2,874,295

1c (high) $8,158,430

2-day, 1-night return 2a (medium) $1,957,167

2b (high) $6,342 786

Day walks 3 $1,104 253

Source: PWS, 2020

Direct full time equivalent staff required for each option are provided in the table below.

TABLE 20: DIRECT FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT STAFF INCLUDED IN OPERATING COSTS (2028)

Walk option ID FTE staff (salaries and on-cost Positions FTE = full-time equivalent, B = Award band pay scale allowance)

3-day, 2-night 1a (basic) 5.17 ($476,388) 0.20 FTE Band (B)5 Business Enterprise Manager through 1.00 B4 Ranger in Charge 0.50 B3 Administrator 1.00 B3 Ranger 0.30 B2 Administrator 0.84 B2 Ranger 1.33 B2 Ranger (seasonal) Total 5.17 FTE

1b 9.40 ($916,175) 0.20 B5 Ranger in Charge (medium) 1.00 B4 Business Enterprise Coordinator 1.00 B4 Ranger 0.50 B3 Administration Officer 0.70 B2 Administration Officer 1.00 B3 Ranger 1.00 B3 Maintenance Officer 0.50 B2 Field Officer 4.00 (5 0.80 FTE) B2 Host Rangers Total 9.40 FTE

1c (high) 12.70 ($1,225,106) 0.20 B5 Ranger in Charge 1.00 B4 Business Enterprise Coordinator

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1.00 B4 Ranger 0.50 B3 Administration Officer 0.70 B2 Administration Officer 1.00 B3 Ranger 1.00 B3 Maintenance Officer 0.50 B2 Field Officer 4.00 (5 0.80 FTE) B2 Host Rangers 3.30 B2 Guides Total 12.70 FTE

2-day, 1-night 2a 7.80 ($710 221) 0.20 B5 Ranger in Charge return (medium) 1.00 B4 Business Enterprise Coordinator 1.00 B4 Ranger 0.50 B3 Administration Officer 0.70 B2 Administration Officer 1.00 B3 Ranger 1.00 B3 Maintenance Officer 0.50 B2 Field Officer 2.70 (3 0.80 FTE) B2 Host Rangers Total 7.80 FTE

2b (high) 10.25 ($1 070 640) 0.20 B5 Ranger in Charge 1.00 B4 Business Enterprise Coordinator 1.00 B4 Ranger 0.50 B3 Administration Officer 0.70 B2 Administration Officer 1.00 B3 Ranger 1.00 B3 Maintenance Officer 0.50 B2 Field Officer 2.70 (3 0.80 FTE) B2 Host Rangers 1.65 B2 Guides Total 10.25 FTE

Day walks 3 4.20 ($417 410) 1.00 B5 Program Manager (Maintenance) 0.20 B5 Business Enterprise Manager 1.00 B3 Ranger 2.00 B2 Rangers Total 4.2 FTE

Source: PWS, 2020

11.3 Funding sources

The Tasmanian Government has allocated $20 million of funding in the current Tasmanian Budget for the Next Iconic Walk project. However, only Options 2 and the benchmark can be developed with this amount (not allowing for ongoing operations).

For Option 1, the PWS will need to seek additional funding to complement this investment. Likely funding sources for Option 1 would be either/or State and Australian government funding. There are possible grant funding sources such as the Building Better Regions Fund.

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11.4 Operational options

Once operational, Options 1 and 2 will generate revenue from users of the track. The Myriad market research showed that the demand for multi-day and overnight walks has a low price elasticity. This enables the PWS to charge fees that will cover at least the operational and maintenance costs of the track (at 70-100% capacity). This revenue may come directly from walkers and/or via operators of guided tours. For the benchmark, if the precedent for part-full day walks (e.g. 6O Great Short Walks) is followed, there is no direct revenue from the track.

The preferred operating model of the track (Options 1 and 2) should consider the concerns raised by the community and operators that in order to have a strong social licence, it is important to avoid private operators claiming significant capacity on the track. However, the option of many different private operators offering guiding and services around the walk may be seen differently to single private business dominance of the walk. Private operators generally have greater marketing flexibility, and can operate differently, growing the target market far more widely than a single offer government- run product.

From a welfare economics point of view, SGS shares this concern around equity and optimal returns in relation to the future operating model. This concern is important for the PWS and the wider community. The track and infrastructure are on public land and built from public money. The benefits should therefore be returned to the government and the wider community.

From experience elsewhere, there is evidence that some operating models result in the values of public land and public infrastructure being monetised by private operators. These gains ultimately benefit the shareholders of these businesses. Not only does this create an equity issue around the use of public domain and services, it also results in sub-optimal financial returns to the government and the public. These privatised returns are lost from the public.

The preferred operating model should be one that builds community wealth, by ensuring that the financial gains are being reinvested in public assets and amenities. This builds a perpetual cycle of community wealth.

A counterargument to this is that the government has traditionally been seen as having low flexibility and little capacity to run a tourism business effectively, given the operational requirements in a dynamic industry. Over the last 30 years or so, across Australia all levels of government have largely divested themselves of these responsibilities, and recognised issues around competitive neutrality. However, in this case, there are strong arguments for government involvement and precedents set with the Overland Track and the Three Capes Track.

The final optimal business model needs to be carefully reviewed, as private operators can play a significant role in local job creation and building stronger local towns, and may create greater community benefits compared with a model that creates largely new government employees; and so the balance or blend of cost benefits needs careful consideration.

A further complexity in this case is the development of an operating model that may also be a vehicle for a staged approach, where returns from earlier stages are reinvested to expand the track to its final potential. While Option 2 does generate income, it is less likely than Option 1 to be a viable operation, due to the low expected visitor (walker) numbers, and no returns would be available for reinvestment to complete future staged development.

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Building high community wealth should be a key element of the project planning process (as is legislatively required), and be a clear and agreed objective in future community engagement and project delivery.

11.5 Commercial and community opportunities

Summary A new walk on the West Coast will be a catalyst for business opportunities that will create and retain jobs. The following is not a complete list of possible opportunities, nor is it suggesting any of these will or will not be offered. The opportunities are related to, and arise from, the visitor’s journey that is represented in the following diagram.

FIGURE 14: VISITOR JOURNEY

Source: PWS, 2021 Business may participate in at least one of the following avenues (and there may be others): • as part of the walking experience • offer an optional, packaged value-adding activity • support the walk • use the walk’s infrastructure • provide required and optional services for visitors attracted to the West Coast by the walk (most notably, transport to and from the walk infrastructure).

Part of the walking experience Includes businesses directly delivering a walk activity experienced by the visitor. Opportunities could include:

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• booking and information service • reception • transfers (e.g. between Queenstown and the walk).

Optional, packaged, value-adding activities Activities selected at or about the time of booking that extend, enhance and/or facilitate the core visitor experience. Opportunities could include: • West Coast transfers • day walks • transfers • guided walks • pre and post-walk accommodation • food packages • gear hire and sales.

Support the walk Directly enables the walk’s operation, including staff, infrastructure and equipment. There are many opportunities, including these categories: • regular public transport to and from the walk infrastructure (running from Queenstown) • private transport (e.g. vehicle services, helicopters) • consumables (e.g. fuel, waste management) • facility maintenance (e.g. track and building maintenance) • professional services (e.g. risk management, promotion) • equipment supply and servicing (e.g. tools).

Use the walk’s infrastructure Offer alternative visitor experiences using the walk’s infrastructure (e.g. track), including: • guided walks.

Required and optional services for visitors attracted to the West Coast by the walk Support and enhance the visitor’s West Coast visit, including: • tours and activities • food and drink • entertainment • parking • community services (e.g. government, health care, toilets, waste management, public transport, parking etc).

Constraints • the community may or may not be ready to construct and operate the new walk

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• more visitors requires higher infrastructure capacity (e.g. water, power, waste management, transport), trained staff, more housing, and visitor accommodation (at the right standard) – ideally, ready when required and growing with demand. This requires proactive investment and is risky. Inadequate response harms existing residents and a visitor’s experience.

11.6 Cost-benefit analysis

Introduction A cost-benefit analysis (CBA) assesses the merit of investing in a project, i.e. it assesses if it is worth doing when a broad societal perspective is taken. A CBA contrasts the project’s economic, social and environmental benefits with its costs, to establish if the benefits outweigh the costs. If this is the case, the project is considered worth doing from a broad community welfare (or economic efficiency) perspective.

CBA methodology

The methodology adopted by CBA is relatively generic in nature, and is summarised in FIGURE 15.

FIGURE 15: CBA METHODOLOGY

Source: SGS Economics and Planning

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The application of this methodology must always be highly attuned to a project and the context at hand. For this CBA, this meant undertaking the following steps:

• Define the alternative impact on the community of four different scenarios, one being business as usual (BAU), and the three project options. • Identify the incremental costs and benefits of moving from the BAU to the project scenario/s taking a broad economic, social and environmental perspective. In doing this, it is important to: • separate the costs and benefits that stem from general trends, from those that are associated with specific outcomes promoted by the project scenario/s, and • account for the difference between ‘real’ or ‘net’ costs and benefits, as opposed to transfer effects between different groups in the West Coast/Tasmania more broadly. • Quantify and then monetise (convert to dollar values) the incremental costs and benefits using available monetisation techniques, which include both market and non-market valuation techniques. • Assess the efficiency of moving towards the project scenario using discounted cashflow analysis, which contrasts the incremental costs and benefits and then discounts all future (past) costs and benefits to present day values using appropriate discount rates. Appropriate performance measures, such as ‘net present value’ and ‘benefit-cost ratio’, are then calculated to gauge overall efficiency. • Test the sensitivity of these performance measures by varying the underlying assumptions in the discounted cashflow analysis. • Assess non-monetised costs and benefits, recognising that some items are difficult to monetise due to their inherent intangibility or because of a lack of information or appropriate monetisation techniques. • Integrate the monetised and non-monetised costs and benefits to make a fully informed conclusion about the likely efficiency of moving towards the project options. • Assess the equity of the project options by examining the distribution of who pays and who benefits, and identify any segments of the community that disproportionately win or lose as a result of implementing the project.

The CBA analysis The project is explicitly intended to provide economic and social benefits for the West Coast community. However, given that works are to be funded by the Tasmanian Government, the project must also deliver a net welfare improvement for the community of the State. Therefore, the CBA considers net welfare impacts for both the West Coast and the broader Tasmanian community.

Real values are used throughout the analysis. This means that dollar prices are not escalated for inflation over time during the 30-year analysis period.

Through the CBA, the merits of the proposed options to develop a new walking experience in the Tyndall Range are evaluated on an incremental basis. This means the initiative’s outcomes are tested in comparison to the outcomes that would occur under a business as usual (BAU) scenario of no investment at all.

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Base case Under the base case (or BAU), it is assumed that current visitation trajectories are maintained, and that the investment proposed under each option does not occur at any point over the evaluation period.

Project cases

Three project cases are included as part of this assessment. These options are discussed in detail in section 5.5 of this document.

Visitation assumptions Many costs and benefits linked to this project are driven by underlying assumptions about visitation. Given the importance of these assumptions in the CBA, it is useful to set out key visitation assumptions and data.

Visitation split Visitors to the site will comprise a mix of Tasmanian, interstate and international visitors. Assumptions about the mix of visitors has a material impact on the calculation of key cost and benefit categories.

To understand the split of visitors for each option, data for the Three Capes Track and the Overland Track has been used. It is estimated that the mix of walkers selecting roofed accommodation would reflect the visitor profile of the Three Capes Track. For those using campsites, a visitation split similar to the Overland Track has been adopted.

TABLE 21: SPLIT OF VISITATION BY SOURCE, ROOFED ACCOMMODATION AND CAMPSITES

Roofed accommodation Campsite accommodation

Tasmanian residents 16% 11%

Interstate visitors 79% 72%

International visitors 5% 17%

Source: PWS, 2020

Total visitation For each option, the number of visitors per year is estimated. These visitor estimates are shown below. It is assumed that these visitation estimates are for 2024, and that visitation grows thereafter at an annual rate of 2% per annum.

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TABLE 22: ESTIMATE OF VISITOR NUMBERS

Option Roofed accommodation Campsite accommodation Day walks

1 3,806 1,648 -

2 1,952 232 -

3 - - 17,821

Source: PWS, 2020

Summary of costs and benefits SGS has identified a range of incremental benefits and costs for each option. These are set out in Table 23.

Items monetised are construction and maintenance costs, the benefits from additional visitor spending, the enjoyment gained by the community from a new recreational asset, and the resulting health benefits from more active lifestyles. Items that have been included with rigour, but qualitatively (i.e. researched and explored, but not given a monetary value due to the lack of monetisation techniques, or to avoid double counting with other items), are also included in the table.

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TABLE 23: COSTS AND BENEFITS

Quantifiable Costs Quantifiable Benefits - Construction costs. - Revenues associated with user charges. - Maintenance and operating costs. - Increased economic activity associated with rises in interstate and international tourism expenditure. - Enhanced recreational opportunities for the Tasmanian community. - Promotion of active and healthy lifestyles (health cost savings). - Benefits linked to education component of the project. - Skills development in the parks and recreation industry subsector. - Building the ‘brand value’ of Tasmania’s West Coast (and Tasmania as a whole), supporting its role as an iconic destination for nature-based tourism in particular. Qualitative costs Qualitative Benefits - Potential for environmental degradation and - Opportunity for renewal of the Queenstown township, with new loss of natural values because of incursion business opportunities triggering investment in local businesses. into natural areas. - An increase in the number and quality of jobs in the West Coast region, potentially resulting in higher wages and salaries for local residents.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning

11.7 Costs

Capital costs Each option will incur construction costs. These are summarised in Table 24 and relate to the costings for ‘medium standard’ accommodation for Options 1 and 2. The cashflow for the benchmark is the same as Option 1 for this calculation (although another scenario is demonstrated in the schedule for the benchmark and depends on specific tracks selected).

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TABLE 24: SUMMARY OF CAPITAL COSTS

Option Cost of 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 works ($m)

Option 1 $35.07 $6.62 $6.62 $6.62 $6.62 $6.62 $1.98

Option 2 $15.32 $7.19 $7.19 $0.93 - - -

Benchmark $20.00 $3.78 $3.78 $3.78 $3.78 $3.78 $1.13

Source: PWS, 2020 In net present value terms, total capital costs are:

1. Option 1: $31.02 million 2. Option 2: $$14.39 million 3. Benchmark: $17.69 million

Operating and maintenance costs Once operational, ongoing costs relating to maintenance and repairs, cleaning, customer service and more will be required. These costs are relatively significant under each option, given the remote locations of the tracks and the customer service focus for Options 1 and 2.

It is assumed that these ongoing costs become payable once the track works are completed. This is assumed to be in 2029 for Options 1 and the benchmark, and 2026 for Option 2. Estimates of annual ongoing costs (out to 30 years) have been provided and are summarised below. It is assumed these annual maintenance costs increase at a real annual rate of 1%.

TABLE 25: SUMMARY OF ANNUAL ONGOING COSTS (2024 PRICES)

Option Ongoing operating and maintenance costs ($m, 2024 prices)

Option 1 $2,875,295

Option 2 $1,957,167

Benchmark $1,104,253

Source: PWS, 2020 In net present value terms, operating and maintenance costs are:

1. Option 1: $39.40 million 2. Option 2: $32.26 million 3. Benchmark: $15.14 million

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Environmental degradation (unquantified) The establishment of the track will result in higher numbers of people entering a part of Tasmania that has, to this point, had low visitation. There are perceived concerns that construction of the track itself will diminish the natural values of the region. In addition, there was concern expressed by both the online survey participants, and existing commercial operators, that walkers will leave the official track, disturbing natural ecosystems and habitats.

Owing to methodological difficulties, we have not sought to quantify the cost of environmental degradation as part of this analysis. In short, the comments cannot be qualified but have been carefully considered in the route options explored.

Although the costs associated with this are very much real, it is anticipated they will be minimised through approval conditions (project controls), environmentally responsible construction, post- occupancy surveys, education, signage and enforcement measures.

Additional engagement with the wider Tasmanian community on the work undertaken to minimise the environmental risks will thus be important.

11.8 Revenues

Operating revenues Under Options 1 and 2, revenues will be generated once the project is complete. These will be linked to user fees charged to two groups of users – those staying in ‘huts’, and those that elect to camp in designated sites. Under the benchmark, walkers will not be charged for track usage and as a result this option delivers no revenue benefit.

TABLE 26: SUMMARY OF ANNUAL REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS (2024 PRICES)

Option Price per person (roofed Price per person (campsite accommodation) accommodation)

Option 1 $576.37 $288.19

Option 2 $408.36 $204.18

Benchmark - -

Source: PWS, 2020 It is assumed that revenues grow at 1% per annum in real terms. These fees are multiplied by visitation numbers set out in section 5.11.

In net present value terms, operating revenues are:

1. Option 1: $47.44 million 2. Option 2: $17.50 million 3. Benchmark: $15.14 million

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Tourism expenditure The project will play a role in attracting visitors to Tasmania from interstate and overseas. For many of those who travel to Tasmania to use the track, the track will be the primary driver of their visit to Tasmania. For another group of track users, we can say their track usage will occur during a visit to Tasmania that would have been undertaken in any event.

For the first group, value added linked to their expenditure elsewhere in Tasmania can be treated as a benefit for the purposes of this analysis. Expenditure associated with the latter group is treated as expenditure that would have occurred under the base case, so is excluded from this analysis. Any expenditure associated with Tasmanian tourism is treated as a transfer, and is also excluded from the analysis.

TABLE 27: PROPORTION OF VISITORS FOR WHOM THE TRACK IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF VISITATION

Option Proportion

Option 1 70%

Option 2 70%

Benchmark 15.8%

Source: PSW, 2020 Tourism Research Australia data shows that holidaymakers to Launceston and Hobart spent an average of $221 and $239 per day respectively in the year to March 2020. For the purposes of this assessment, we assume that interstate and international visitors will spend $230 for every night in Tasmania, and that the average length of each trip will be 6.62 nights (2020).

We assume that value added is equivalent to 25% of total visitor expenditure.

In order to estimate the increase in welfare associated with expenditure, the following formula is adopted:

= total visitation prop n visiting primarily to use track avg daily expenditure 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 additional days spent in′ Tasmania value added (25%) ∗ ∗ In net present value∗ terms, value added linked to induced∗ tourism expenditure resulting from each of the options is:

1. Option 1: $12.09 million 2. Option 2: $7.12 million 3. Benchmark: $16.02 million

Consumer surplus Assumptions have been made about how much visitors will be prepared to pay to use the track. This component of ‘willingness to pay’ is quantified in the form of revenue, but it does not consider any consumer surplus generated as a result of track use.

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All track users (except day walkers) are to be charged a fixed fee to use the track. The reality, however, (as with any good or service) is that some would value the experience significantly higher, and would be prepared to pay more. For these users, the increase in their welfare (i.e. their consumer surplus) would be the difference between the amount they would be willing to pay vs what they actually paid.

Represented graphically, consumer surplus is represented by the shaded area (Pmax, P, e) in Figure 16. In order to estimate the value of consumer surplus, many practitioners adopt the ‘rule of half’. This rule takes consumer surplus as equivalent to half the value of revenue, i.e. (p * q)/2. This is predicated on simplifying assumptions that the demand curve is linear, and that it has a 45 degree slope, i.e. that a change in price brings about a proportionate change in quantity demanded.

However, the track is likely to be unique and not easily ‘substitutable’. For this reason, track users are not likely to be particularly price sensitive. Therefore, the demand curve for using the track is likely to be relatively ‘inelastic’, or steeply sloped. This means that the size of the shaded triangle in this case is likely to be significantly larger than represented below. We can therefore say that the estimate of consumer surplus adopted in this analysis is likely to be conservative.

FIGURE 16: GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF CONSUMER SURPLUS

Source: SGS Economics and Planning

For the purposes of this CBA, only consumer surplus associated with Tasmanian users of the tracks is considered. In net present value terms, consumer surplus linked to induced tourism expenditure resulting from each of the options is:

1. Option 1: $3.92 million 2. Option 2: $1.66 million 3. Benchmark: $1.78 million

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Health cost savings Those induced to walk as a result of the project are likely to derive small health benefits. These benefits are manifested in health system savings equivalent to $6.14 for every additional hour walked.

The table below sets out assumptions about additional hours walked per visitor.

TABLE 28: HOURS WALKED ASSUMPTIONS, PER VISITOR

Option Hours per day Hours per visit

Option 1 4.5 13.5

Option 2 4.5 9.0

Benchmark 2.0 2.0

Source: SGS Economics and Planning We assume that all exercise associated with track usage is induced (i.e. it does not replace exercise that would have otherwise taken place). Also, only health benefits linked to use of the track by Tasmanians is considered as part of this analysis.

In net present value terms, health cost savings linked to each of the options are:

1. Option 1: $0.78 million 2. Option 2: $0.32 million 3. Benchmark: $0.54 million

Education benefits The tracks will provide an important educational resource. Although the extent of the offering is presently unclear, it is reasonable to assume that some schools will take up the offer of educational programs at the site, and conduct day trips (or overnight trips) to the West Coast region.

It is assumed that the facilities and experiences made available to these students when they visit will be unavailable, or available at a lesser pedagogical value, in their home schools, colleges and universities. In this sense, the educational resources can be seen as tantamount to a classroom resource for some Tasmanian educational institutions.

It is reasonable to assume that if this resource were to be denied to Tasmanian schools, colleges and universities, the value of their educational output would be diminished. At a minimum, this value could be approximated by the opportunity cost of the time spent by teachers and students in travelling to the West Coast and conducting classes or site tours there. This, in turn, can be approximated by the cost of delivering educational services per hour per student in a standard school setting.

According to the Productivity Commission’s 2016 Report on Government Services, total recurrent expenditure (by all governments) per full-time equivalent (FTE) student in public sector schools amounted to $13,294 in 2013-14, and escalated to $14,983 in 2020-21. Assuming 180 school days per year, each of 6 hours, the cost of providing education per hour per student in Tasmania is approximately $13.87 in 2021 ($14.94 in 2024).

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It is assumed that the educational component will be identical under each option.

TABLE 29: EDUCATIONAL BENEFIT PARAMETERS

Parameter Value

A Cost of FTE student in 2021 $14,983 B School days per year 180 C School hours per day 6 D Value of educational experience, per hour (A/B/C) $13.87 E Average visit length (round trip) 8 F Number of school visitors per week (3 groups of 30 students) 90 G Number of school visiting weeks (discounting school holidays) 40 H Total individual school visits (F * G) 3,600 I Hours spent travelling to and visiting site (E * H) 28,800 J Educational value (D * I) $399,456

Source: SGS Economics and Planning In net present value terms, the educational benefits linked to each option are:

1. Option 1: $5.90 million 2. Option 2: $7.09 million (benefit earlier (present value)) 3. Benchmark: $5.90 million

Enhanced industry skills The project will provide employment opportunities for the people of Tasmania and the West Coast. These employment opportunities will allow workers in defined sectors (i.e. parks and gardens operations) to develop new skills and competencies that ultimately make them more productive workers. This enhanced sector productivity would be reflected in a higher average value added per worker.

It is estimated that there are about 300 Parks and Gardens Operations workers in Tasmania (ID Consulting), and that value added per worker in this sector is about $40,000. This project would provide opportunities for workers to gain experience in areas such as commercial operations and customer service experience that would typically not be found in jobs within this sector. It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that the project would generate a small sector-wide improvement in productivity. The table below shows the productivity uplift assumptions under each option.

TABLE 30: PRODUCTIVITY UPLIFT FOR PARKS AND GARDENS OPERATIONS WORKERS BY OPTION

Option Productivity uplift

Option 1 3.00%

Option 2 2.00%

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Benchmark 0.25%

Source: SGS Economics and Planning In net present value terms, the development of industry skills resulting from each option is:

1. Option 1: $4.37 million 2. Option 2: $3.57 million 3. Benchmark: $0.36 million

Building Tasmania’s brand Tasmania is internationally renowned for many things, including its pristine wilderness areas, its rugged physical environment, and its unique flora and fauna. These things play a key role in the ‘Tasmanian brand’. This brand is leveraged to generate export opportunities, including tourism services, fresh produce, or other packaged food and beverages. These exports bring revenue and employment opportunities to the State, helping to support sustainable regional communities and economies.

By generating attention in the media, the Next Iconic Walk has the potential to generate an enhancement in Tasmania’s brand value by indirectly ‘marketing’ Tasmania. It is estimated that a positive media article has an ‘advertising value’ of $9,924 for every million people ‘exposed’ to it. This can be understood as equivalent to the market value of an advertisement able to attract the same level of exposure.

This benefit also raises the point that it is important to ensure that stakeholders, especially the community, have a largely positive attitude towards the project. It reaffirms the need to ensure that community concerns are properly addressed, and that the project outcomes do not conflict with key elements of the Tasmanian brand. Clearly, while positive media exposure has the potential to enhance the State’s brand value, the reverse is true for critical media exposure.

To quantify this benefit, SGS assumes that the more ‘iconic’ the Option, the more likely it is to be reported in mainstream media articles. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that:

• Option 1 leads to media coverage that generates 200 million ‘clicks’ (equivalent to around 20 major mainstream media articles). • Option 2 leads to media coverage that generates 100 million ‘clicks’ (equivalent to around 10 major mainstream media articles). • The benchmark leads to media coverage that generates 20 million ‘clicks’ (equivalent to around 2 major mainstream media articles).

It is assumed that media coverage reduces thereafter, as set out below:

• Year 2 – 50% of first year coverage • Year 3 – 40% of first year coverage • Year 4 – 30% of first year coverage • Year 5 – 20% of first year coverage • Year 6 onwards – 10% of first year coverage.

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In net present value terms, the enhancement to Tasmania’s brand resulting from each option is:

1. Option 1: $4.92 million 2. Option 2: $1.36 million 3. Benchmark: $0.49 million

Economic revival of West Coast townships The projects are likely to lead to a surge of visitation to West Coast townships, in particular Queenstown, though potentially also Strahan, Tullah, Rosebery and Zeehan. This is likely to result in the renewal of parts of these towns as business opportunities emerge to service incoming tourist expenditure. Further, new visitation may create the justification for expenditure on public works by the Tasmanian or Australian governments, further boosting township amenity.

To the extent that the project results in more amenable public spaces and streetscapes in West Coast townships, a benefit will accrue to the local population. This benefit has not been monetised as part of this analysis.

Increase in number of jobs Typically, CBA does not count benefits linked to the establishment of new jobs associated with a project. The reason for this is that in most Australian regions, the limited availability of skilled labour means that workers employed as a result of a project or initiative usually transfer from other jobs, rather than emerging from unemployment.

There are some circumstances, however, where the consideration of benefits linked to new employment may be justified. In the case of the West Coast region, unemployment is relatively high (10.4% in September 2020), so it can be claimed, with a greater degree of confidence, that the project will in fact bring residents out of unemployment. This claim relies on there being, among the pool of unemployed, a sufficient array of skills available in the local community.

In line with standard practice, we do not monetise these benefits in the overall analysis, but recognise that there may be a small increase in local employment as a consequence of new activity linked to the projects.

Note that the benefits of new employment, in terms of enhanced worker productivity in the parks and recreation sector, is monetised and included within the CBA.

Summary of results CBAs have been carried out for each option.

The table below summarises the benefits by category under each, and the overall findings (in terms of benefit-cost ratio and net present value). It shows that, under the assumptions detailed above, Option 1 would develop a net benefit for Tasmanian residents of about $9.0 million, and $1.13 in benefits for every dollar in costs incurred; Options 2 and the benchmark would lead to a reduced welfare for Tasmanian residents, with BCRs of 0.83 and 0.76 respectively.

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TABLE 31: SUMMARY OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS RESULTS (TASMANIAN COMMUNITY)

Option 1 Option 2 Benchmark

COSTS

Construction costs $31.02m $14.39m $17.70m

Recurring costs $39.40m $32.26m $15.14m

TOTAL COSTS $70.42m $46.65m $32.83m

BENEFITS

Operating revenues $47.44m $17.50m -

Tourism expenditure $12.09m $7.12m $16.02m

Consumer surplus $3.92m $1.66m $1.78m

Health cost savings $0.78m $0.32m $0.54m

Skill development $4.37m $3.57m $0.36m

Education benefits $5.90m $7.09m $5.90m

Enhanced brand value $4.92m $1.36m $0.49m

TOTAL BENEFITS $79.42m $38.60m $25.09m

NET PRESENT VALUE $9.00m ($8.05m) ($7.74m)

BENEFIT-COST RATIO 1.13 0.83 0.76

Source: SGS Economics and Planning

Multi-criteria assessment of non-monetised benefits In addition to the monetised costs and benefits mentioned in the CBA table, it is important to value and appreciate non-monetised costs and benefits.

On the cost side, there are environmental costs as a result of degradation of environmental values. Appropriate track design and use can minimise these costs. The track route is such that it avoids vulnerable values such as alpine flora. The planning and approvals process has stringent requirements to ensure minimal environmental disruption. Education and awareness raising should be used to optimise behaviour of track users. Importantly, the track is entirely outside of the TWWHA.

The economic revival and job creation on the West Coast as a result of the track are instrumental in maintaining and regenerating community sustainability. For a community to be sustainable, it is

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In terms of employment, again both Options 1 and the benchmark outperform Option 2. Although the benchmark has limited potential to create additional jobs due to the lack of onsite accommodation, with visitation expected to be high, the benchmark would be expected to generate substantial benefits for local businesses.

TABLE 32: MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS OF NON-MONETISED BENEFITS

Benefit Option 1 Option 2 Benchmark

(through (return (day walks walk) walk) and upgrades)

Opportunity for renewal of the Queenstown township, with new business Medium/High Low High opportunities triggering investment in local businesses.

An increase in the number and quality of jobs in the West Coast region, Medium/High Low High potentially resulting in higher wages and salaries for local residents.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning

Discussion of the impact of critical CBA assumptions A summary of how key assumptions affect the CBA findings is useful in helping to understand how the social and economic viability of the options can be supported.

The CBA was conservatively modelled, and there is room to reconsider some assumptions, especially regarding demand, price points, and marketing and promotion of the track as part of Tasmania’s brand:

• The project capital cost is high for Option 1. This large initial outlay makes it imperative to generate a wide range of social and economic benefits to justify the project. • Ongoing operational costs are also significant. It is therefore important to ensure that operating revenues at least break even. It is necessary to incur these to ensure the full range of benefits are captured, and that environmental and other key objectives are met. Both Options 1 and 2 involve fee charging for overnight hikers, and therefore are financially sustainable from an operational perspective. • Visitation (particularly from non-Tasmanians) is a key driver of option performance, with value added linked to visitors’ expenditure playing a key role in driving overall benefits. Option 1 has the greatest opportunity to be regarded and promoted as a truly ‘iconic’ experience, thereby meeting the strategic objectives of this government initiative to seek Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk. • Assumptions about limited track capacity significantly affect the viability of the options from a net welfare economic perspective.

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• Options 1 and 2 have the greatest tourism appeal. It is important, however, to recognise that not all benefits are driven by tourism. There are substantial social and economic benefits to the Tasmanian community, which help drive the positive benefit to cost ratio. The main benefits (Option 1) for Tasmania are revenue from fees paid by walkers (60%), increased tourism visitation and spending (15%), education benefits (7%), enhanced tourism brand value (6%), skills development (6%), and improved health outcomes (1%).

TABLE 33: DISTRIBUTION OF BENEFITS FOR OPTION 1

Benefits Option 1

Operating revenues 60%

Tourism expenditure 15%

Consumer surplus 5%

Health cost savings 1%

Skill development 6%

Education benefits 7%

Enhanced brand value 6%

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2021 • Education is potentially a significant benefit under each of the options. The scale of any educational component will therefore be important in supporting the justification for the project. Signage, track documentation, and other forms of interpretation are important tools to maximise these social returns. • The monetisation of the enhanced brand value for Tasmania as a destination to visit is also important. The current estimate is conservative and based on exposure potential in published media. It is well understood that the influence of social media may outweigh that of published media. Marketing and promotion of the walk will help enhance brand value returns, but also track use and visitor expenditure in the State. • The operating model for the track may be designed to generate an operating surplus and use financial gains to reinvest into the community. The financial returns may also be used for a staged development of the track, where financial returns are reinvested in consecutive stages of the track3.

The impact of variations on some of these assumptions, and others, can be seen in Table 34.

3 This may need additional financial modelling on the optimal operating model, not currently part of the scope.

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Sensitivity testing The findings of cost-benefit analysis always depend on the assumptions adopted by the practitioner. While these assumptions are based on solid evidence and sound logic, the future is inherently uncertain, which means that the assumptions underpinning the CBA may not hold in a real-world context.

Therefore, it is standard practice in CBA to carry out sensitivity testing of variables to show how changing underlying assumptions in the model will change the CBA outputs. In general, these tests will relate to variables that play the largest roles in driving outputs, as well as those around which there is significant uncertainty or potential variation.

SGS has tested the impact on the model of changes in a number of model variables. These are presented in the table below.

TABLE 34: SENSITIVITY TEST SUMMARY

Variable Project case Test #1 Test #2

Discount rate 4% 1% 7%

Construction costs As per costed totals 25% higher 25% lower

Increase in visitation to As per estimates 20% increase 50% increase paid walks

Change in fees charged As per estimates 25% higher 50% higher

Change in educational 3,600 student visitors 0 student visitors p.a. 7,200 student visitors component p.a. p.a.

Growth in tourist 2% p.a. Zero growth 3% p.a. visitation

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2021 The table below shows the findings of the sensitivity testing.

TABLE 35: SENSITIVITY TEST FINDINGS

Option 1 Option 2 Benchmark

NPV ($m) BCR NPV ($m) BCR NPV ($m) BCR

Discount rate

4% $9.00 1.13 -$8.05 0.83 -$7.74 0.76

1% $31.76 1.32 -$4.30 0.93 -$2.86 0.93

7% -$2.80 0.95 -$9.82 0.73 -$9.93 0.62

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Construction costs

100% $9.00 1.13 -$8.05 0.83 -$7.74 0.76

125% $1.24 1.02 -$11.65 0.77 -$12.17 0.67

80% $15.20 1.24 -$5.17 0.88 -$4.20 0.86

Increased visitation, paid walks

100% of estimate $9.00 1.13 -$8.05 0.83 -$7.74 0.76

120% of estimate $15.71 1.22 -$3.08 0.93 -$7.74 0.76

150% of estimate $27.01 1.38 $4.37 1.09 -$7.74 0.76

Change in fees charged

100% $9.00 1.13 -$8.05 0.83 -$7.74 0.76

125% $21.84 1.31 -$3.26 0.93 -$7.74 0.76

150% $34.68 1.49 $1.53 1.03 -$7.74 0.76

Change in educational component

3,600 $9.00 1.13 -$8.05 0.83 -$7.74 0.76

0 $3.10 1.04 -$15.14 0.68 -$13.64 0.58

7,200 $14.89 1.21 -$0.96 0.98 -$1.85 0.94

Growth in tourist visitation

2% $9.00 1.13 -$8.05 0.83 -$7.74 0.76

0% -$6.43 0.91 -$13.78 0.70 -$11.93 0.64

3% $16.89 1.24 -$5.11 0.89 -$5.65 0.83

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2021

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Summary of results for the West Coast community Given that a key objective of the project is to benefit the West Coast community, it is important to understand how this community might be impacted under each option, in net terms. In order to do this, we have carried out a cost-benefit analysis at the local government level; for the purposes of this analysis we treated the West Coast region as an independent jurisdiction. As a result, the provision of tourism services to Tasmanians is treated as an export, a fact that plays a key role in boosting the project performance under each option.

The impact on the West Coast community is expected to be significant for all options. This is a consequence of the fact that their indirect share of capital and ongoing costs is small, as well as the fact that a large share of the project benefits will occur within the West Coast.

To estimate the net welfare benefit for the West Coast community, we assume that the local community’s share of financial costs and revenues is equivalent to their share of the Tasmanian population (0.76%). The analysis also assumes that the local community would not pay for use of the track. In other words, apart from a small share of operating revenues, benefits would comprise mostly of induced tourist expenditure, as well as enhanced local worker productivity and education benefits.

The summary of the results is set out below. It shows that from the perspective of the West Coast community, the project has a clear benefit under each option, with NPVs of $6.26 million, $4.25 million, and $10.66 million respectively.

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TABLE 36: SUMMARY OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS RESULTS (WEST COAST COMMUNITY)

Option 1 Option 2 Benchmark

COSTS

Construction costs 0.24m $0.11m $0.13m

Recurring costs 0.30m $0.25m $0.12m

TOTAL COSTS $0.54m $0.35m $0.25m

BENEFITS

Operating revenues $0.06m $0.16m -

Tourism expenditure $6.20m $4.01m $10.73m

Consumer surplus - - $0.03m

Health cost savings - - $0.05m

Skill development $0.44m $0.36m $0.04m

Education benefits $0.06m $0.06m $0.06m

Enhanced brand value $0.04m $0.02m $0.003m

TOTAL BENEFITS $6.80m $4.61m $10.91m

NET PRESENT VALUE $6.26m $4.25m $10.66m

BENEFIT-COST RATIO 12.71 13.00 43.74

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2021

11.9 Economic impact analysis

Overview An economic impact analysis (EIA) measures the degree to which the economic stimulus associated with a project results in total economic activity within a defined region, i.e. after measuring the cumulative impact of all the buyer–supplier transactions that are induced.

The basic steps in undertaking an EIA are:

• isolating how the project stimulates the regional economy (direct impacts)

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• generating region-specific econometric models and deriving economic multipliers for major regional industry groups • applying these multipliers (by relevant industry group) to the direct impacts to estimate total impacts in terms of regional output (income), value added, and employment.

SGS has developed and used a region-specific input-output model to assess the economic impacts of the proposed Next Iconic Walk on the surrounding region.

The input-output model The input-output (IO) model is a tool that quantifies economic links between 114 industry sectors across the economy. A region-specific model for the area comprising the Bass Coast Shire was used to assess the economic impacts of the project during its construction and operation phases. Multipliers derived from the model estimated three key measures:

• output (or income) • value added or gross regional product (GRP) • FTE jobs.

The model examines how the proposed project impacts the economy through upstream and downstream links. The assessment traces all the flow-on effects – ‘production’ and ‘consumption’ induced effects – in the regional economy to estimate the direct and indirect effects generated during the project’s construction and operation phases.

Limitations Input-output (IO) modelling has some limitations, as follows, but is a cost-effective technique, given that the only feasible alternative is to use partial or general equilibrium econometric models. However, general equilibrium models require an annual stimulus of >$100 million before the impacts start to be measurable across the economy.

• The IO model assumes relationships between industries are static over the forecast period. That is, productivity improvements are not factored in, and historic relationships are assumed to hold. • The IO model derives relationships between industries using total production estimates. Consequently, the relationships are ‘average’, whereas the stimulus used as an input is ‘marginal’. Such an approach does not account for any ‘underused capacity’ at the industry level, or additional economies of scale that might ensue, as production expands from its existing base. • All of the stimuli (direct impacts) are assumed to be ‘new’ economic activities for each regional economy. That is, crowding out or industry substitution effects are assumed to be negligible, meaning that key economic inputs such as labour and capital are assumed to be unconstrained, i.e. there is sufficient slack in the economy to service these stimuli without transferring significant resources from other productive uses. It also means that the activities that are promoted by the subject project do not adversely affect operations elsewhere.

Summary of inputs This project is expected to stimulate the local economy in three distinct ways:

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• upfront economic activity occurring during the construction phase • ongoing economic activity occurring as a result of paying visitors to the track • induced tourist expenditure.

These impacts occur in different phases, as assessed below.

Analysis by phase

Construction phase The construction phase under Option 1 is expected to occur over 5.3 years and to cost $35.1 million. Option 2 and the benchmark’s construction phase will occur across 2.1 and 5.3 years respectively, with costs expected to amount to $15.3 million and $20.0 million.

In addition, construction activity will generate flow-on effects in other industries, which are shown in the table below. When the flow-on effects are incorporated, this stimulus translates to a combined (direct and indirect) economic impact of:

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TABLE 37: CONSTRUCTION PHASE IMPACTS

Output ($m) Option 1 Option 2 Benchmark

Direct $35.07m $15.32m $20.00m

Indirect $34.87m $15.23m $19.89m

Total $69.94m $30.55m $39.89m

Value added ($m)

Direct $13.30m $5.81m $7.59m

Indirect $15.37m $6.72m $8.77m

Total $28.68m $12.53m $16.36m

Employment (FTE jobs)

Direct 23.4 10.2 13.3

Indirect 116.0 50.7 66.1

Total 139.3 60.9 79.5

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2021

Operational phase Once the project is completed, ongoing economic impacts will come through from direct walker fee revenue and tourism expenditure.

In addition, the links to tourism and industrial trade will generate flow-on effects in other industries, shown in the table below. The impacts are presented across a 10-year period because the revenues and tourism expenditure are ongoing, unlike the construction impacts which relate to one-off activity.

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TABLE 38: ONGOING ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Option 1 (M) Option 2 (M) Benchmark (M)*

Output ($m) 2026 2031 2036 2026 2031 2036 2026 2031 2036

Direct 0.0 4.1 4.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 0.0 1.1 1.3

Indirect 0.0 2.9 3.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.0 0.9 1.1

Total 0.0 7.0 8.0 1.9 2.5 2.9 0.0 2.0 2.3

Value added ($m)

Direct 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.5 1.7

Indirect 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.3 1.5

Total 0.0 2.3 2.6 0.6 1.6 1.8 0.0 2.8 3.2

Employment (FTE jobs)

Direct 0.0 23.2 26.4 6.4 8.5 9.7 0.0 8.2 9.3

Indirect 0.0 11.5 13.1 3.2 4.2 4.8 0.0 4.0 4.6

Total 0.0 34.7 39.6 9.6 12.7 14.5 0.0 12.2 13.9

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2021 *Economic impact for the benchmark is zero as expenditure from Tasmanian residents to the West Coast is assumed to be a transfer, and the free day-walks will not induce any international visitation.

Over the project life SGS has modelled economic impacts associated with the project forward to 2044 (see Figure 17). The chart shows an initial spike in impact that comes from the initial construction, followed by an ongoing impact.

Figure 19 shows how the track will impact FTE employment in Tasmania over the life of the project. The additional employment in the early stages stems from the initial construction, while jobs in the later stages are generated by the additional tourism expenditure and, to a lesser extent, track maintenance.

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FIGURE 17: PROJECT IMPACT: OUTPUT ($M) (2024-44)

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2021

FIGURE 18: PROJECT IMPACT: VALUE-ADDED ($M)

Source: SGS Economics and Planning,2021

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FIGURE 19: PROJECT IMPACT: EMPLOYMENT (FTE)

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2021

Economic analysis: Recommendation Option 1 will cost $35.1 million to plan and construct, with medium standard accommodation (median scenario). The benefit-cost ratio of Option 1 is 1.13. This means that for every dollar spent, the Tasmanian community receives $1.13 in social and economic benefits, plus the unquantified benefits.

Option 2 will cost $15.3 million to plan and construct, with medium standard accommodation (median scenario). The benefit-cost ratio of Option 2 is 0.83. Again, this assessment does not include the unquantified benefits The analysis suggests that the pursuit of this option will lead to a loss of welfare being felt across the Tasmanian community, with a return of benefits equivalent in value to 83 cents for every dollar spent.

The benchmark will cost $20 million to plan and construct, with no accommodation provided as part of the track works. The benefit-cost ratio of the benchmark is 0.76. Once again, the analysis suggests that, from the perspective of the welfare of the Tasmanian community, this option should not be pursued.

At a regional level, the benefits accruing to the West Coast community under each of the options by far exceed costs. This is primarily due to the fact that a disproportionately high level of visitor expenditure will be captured by businesses in the West Coast region. Cost-benefit analysis performed at the local level suggests that each of the options would generate significant net social and economic benefits for the community of the West Coast.

Based on this analysis, SGS Economics and Planning recommends that Option 1 be pursued.

Besides export benefits linked to non-Tasmanian tourism expenditure and usage fees, the performance of Option 1 is underpinned by important benefits flowing to the population of Tasmania, particularly educational benefits and consumer surplus linked to local usage.

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This finding should also be considered with the market insights discussed in section 5.5. Options 1 and 2 align with more target walker segments (Challenge Me (Overnight), Reward Seeker and Lifelong Walker) than the benchmark (Challenge Me (Day) and Lifelong Walkers).

Importantly, Option 1 is most likely to be revenue neutral. For Options 2 and the benchmark, a relatively high proportion of their aggregate benefits are social or economic. This means that selection of either of these options is likely to result in an ongoing financial liability to the Tasmanian Government.

A staged development approach that will eventually deliver a through walk to the Tyndall Range, albeit in a longer timeframe, may offer budget and risk management options.

It should also be noted that two underlying concerns exist within the community:

• the risk of the walk infrastructure being monopolised by private operators, creating an equity imbalance between those who can afford to buy high-end walking experiences, and the remaining walker market • the perceived impact on the natural environment of the Tyndall Range.

The first concern should be considered when investigating appropriate operating models. From a welfare economics point of view, financial gains from public facilities should accrue to the government and the wider community. A monopoly by private operators would create an equity issue around the use of public goods and services; it would also result in sub-optimal financial returns to the government and the public. Under a privatised model, financial gains are largely lost from the public.

The preferred operating model should be one that builds community wealth, by ensuring that the financial gains are being reinvested in public assets and amenities. This builds a perpetual cycle of community wealth.

The second concern should be a key element of the project planning process (as is required by legislation) and future community engagement and project delivery.

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12 ACHIEVEMENT OF PROJECT SUCCESS

Critical success factors for the project have been linked to the following key performance indicators to allow the PWS to measure success over time. This matrix has been developed by the PWS and SGS.

TABLE 39: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS LINKED TO KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

Category Critical success factor Key performance indicator

Visitor Potential to be the attraction/reason visitors Next Iconic Walk (NIW) is noted as the choose to visit Tasmania. reason to visit Tasmania in the Tasmanian Visitor Survey.

The walk offers achievable adventure – it is value Affirmation in NIW walker satisfaction for money, and the duration is consistent with the survey. visitor’s available time.

Weather risks are managed appropriately and do Affirmation in NIW walker satisfaction not adversely impact on visitor experience. survey.

Environment The walk is able to be developed sustainably – Compliance with approval conditions (project within constraints + managing impacts. controls).

There is an acceptable level of impact related to PWS monitoring. visitor numbers.

Existing walker displacement to other sites can be Affirmation via targeted PWS community managed. feedback and changes to PWS recurrent work (e.g. increase/decrease in costs).

Economic The walk is developed within budget. Reporting on budget vs actual.

The walk matches and builds upon the Tasmanian NIW is noted as the reason to visit Tasmania brand. in visitor survey.

The walk meets target visitors and numbers, PWS monitoring. considering acceptable environmental impacts and community acceptance.

The walk is developed with a sustainable market The NIW is consistently (each year) noted as advantage – has enduring appeal. the reason to visit Tasmania in the Tasmanian Visitor Survey. Changes in booked/monitored walker numbers each year.

There is demonstrated potential local job Affirmation via targeted PWS community creation/retention and level of growth potential. feedback.

Community The walk has solid government support. Inclusion of NIW in all State tourism products.

The walk has a high level of community support, Affirmation via targeted PWS community including Aboriginal, West Coast and Tasmanian. feedback.

The walk addresses any opposition from the Affirmation via targeted PWS community community. feedback and PWS responses.

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The development of the walk is consistent with Development approvals. land tenure and park/reserve objectives.

Operational The chosen option is financially viable. Reporting on budget vs actual.

The walk’s operations are consistent with the PWS monitoring. current management plan.

Source: PWS, 2020 and SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

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13 APPENDICES

13.1 Community survey results

This section summarises the results of the survey, which was advertised to residents of the West Coast and visitors to the region via the West Coast Council’s website and social media channels. The survey aimed to provide insight into how people view the current access to amenities, and the potential advantages and challenges of the proposed walks.

This survey aimed to explore the views of old and new user groups, and the results have been used to inform the non-monetised costs and benefits of the Next Iconic Walk.

The survey comprised 31 questions. It received 202 online responses, and four hard-copy responses. The first questions of the survey asked for personal and project information such as name, contact email address and consent to follow up on responses.

This section summarises the results from questions 2 to 31.

Question 2: Please tick the following box(es) that describe you. I am:

FIGURE 20: QUESTION 2 - SPLIT OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

The majority of respondents were Tasmanian visitors to the West Coast area. Only 11% (n=22) of overall respondents were West Coast residents, despite the survey’s target audience.

It should be noted that the results assess survey responses according to respondent types. West Coast residents comprise the “West Coast resident”, “Local business owner”, and the “Employed locally on the West Coast” categories. Visitors are made up of “Visitor to the area (Tasmanian resident)” and “Visitor to the area (interstate or international visitor)”.

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Question 3: Do you currently access the West Coast for walking activities?

FIGURE 21: EXISTING ACCESS BY RESPONDENT TYPE

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

There is a high rate of respondents who currently access the West Coast for walking activities, with a higher level from West Coast residents (95%) than visitors to the area (88%).

Question 4: How often do you walk in the West Coast?

FIGURE 22: EXISTING FREQUENCY BY RESPONDENT TYPE

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

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Of the 22 West Coast residents who responded, the majority access the available walking tracks either on a weekly (44%) or monthly (36%) basis. This was captured to be more frequent than visitors to the area, which skewed towards the yearly mark (70%).

Question 5: What kinds of walks do you currently undertake in the West Coast?

FIGURE 23: EXISTING WALK TYPES BY RESPONDENT TYPE

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

Overall, there was no-to-minimal use of guided multi-day walks in either respondent type. Also, there were no respondents that undertake guided day walks. West Coast residents did unguided day walks the most (60%), followed by short walks (22%). In contrast, most visitors to the West Coast undertook unguided multi-day walks (53%), followed by unguided day walks (38%).

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Question 6/7. How do you rate the current level of access to the West Coast for walking activities?

FIGURE 24: RATING OF ACCESSIBILITY BY RESPONDENT TYPE

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

Overall, respondents felt that the West Coast had a reasonably good to a very good level of access. The West Coast residents rated accessibility greater, with the peak centred around “Very good”. In contrast, visitors to the area believed the access to be slightly lower, with the mode centred around the “Good” option.

Can you please explain your answer?

TABLE 40: SUMMARY OF QUESTION 7 RESPONSES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Options Many options are available such as the old tracks around Queenstown that are already in existence and “feel like you are away from it all”. – A survey respondent

However, respondents articulated that options lacked variety. Potential has yet to be used. Walks currently available on the West Coast target older tourists, such as Horsetail Falls.

“I have enough local knowledge and experience to find my own walks, on and off track. For those with no local knowledge the pickings are pretty thin, Mt Murchison being the only easily accessible signed large mountain walk. Mt Farrell at Tullah is smaller. Montezuma Falls and Pillinger are both good. There are many other interesting spots, from waterfalls to mines to mountains which are open only to those in the know.” – A survey respondent

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“There are plenty of walks that could be opened to the walking community with a little time effort, the West Coast is a great place to walk but is nightmare to access” – A survey respondent

Neglected Despite available routes, tracks have been neglected for 30 years or more, with routes limited access to maintained tracks.

Rough tracks and pads.

“Most of the walks are poorly maintained except for a couple. Track closures are common. They don’t give tourists a high quality visitor experience with presentation.” – A survey respondent

Signage and More signage and information on already established tracks. Limited tracks access available without local knowledge or experience.

“Tracks are poorly marked if at all. Track-head parking options are also poor. Maps are non-existent. No track registers. No accessibility infrastructure.” – A survey respondent

Responses from visitors to the area

Themes Details

Minimal Signage to tracks is minimal or non-existent unless you have walked it before. signage Poor signposting.

Signage required, especially in finding starting points of tracks.

Exclusive use Currently, low impact tracks which have not been over exploited and commercialised.

“Beautiful wild and untouched area” – A survey respondent

“Enough access to most walks but not too much so that they get trashed.” – A survey respondent

Accessibility Can access walks by car through the bitumen road access and with parking; however, public transport is minimal and only to regional hubs. No public transport to track heads.

Maps are readily available and excellent—lots of online guide and hard-copy guide books. However, information on walks may be pretty scattered.

No formed track with infrastructure – challenging to access to those who don’t know the area very well. But with some research, there is a good level of access and walks.

Scope to upgrade.

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Good access to 60%, remainder a bit difficult to access. Reasonable to access for self-sufficient bushwalkers.

As a wilderness walker, road access to the Range is good. Not easy to find for tourists. Very few signs and people find their own way up.

“Access to walks reflects the difficulty and remoteness of the walks - short, easy walks and popular walks are easily accessible, while more remote and challenging walks are less accessible, as they should be, requiring more thought and planning of people going there” – A survey respondent

Features More camping (near track-heads), imported track surfaces, track brochures and toilets.

Good range of existing walk destination types: coast, waterfall, forest, mountains. Hiking is focused more on day walks, which means hikers more likely to stay in town accommodation.

“Suitable infrastructure for the preservation of natural environments [could be] upgraded e.g. tent platforms and drop toilets at frequently visited campsites, track work where high rates of erosion are occurring.” – A survey respondent

Poor Parking Poor car parking, particularly for some walks.

“Reasonable parking area for Mt Murchison, Lake Sandra walk signage removed, room for two cars just at gate on Lake Spicer Road, no signage, no signs or parking area for current Tyndall Range Track. The spectacular road from Tullah past Lake Plimsoll and Tyndalls has great views but no parking areas or viewpoints where visitors can easily get out to take some photos. Lots of easy little hills along this road but again no good parking areas, it’s just squeeze on the side of the road with tracks [cars] doing 100k close to your car door.” – A survey respondent

Poor parking “Particularly for iconic walks like the Tyndall Range, Mt Dundas, Mt Reed, also the walks from the old Dundas township area, and the difficult arrangements to access Lake Margaret”. – A survey respondent

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

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Question 8: Which of the following walking experiences based in the Tyndall Range would you use if they were constructed?

FIGURE 25: OVERALL USE OF PROPOSED WALKING OPTIONS BY RESPONDENT TYPE

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

There was a similar rate of response across all options regardless of respondent types. There was a higher rate of expected use of new and improved day walks. West Coast residents responded with an equal split between both multi-day walks, while visitors indicated the two-night, three-day walk would gain better traction as the multi-day option for them.

Question 9: How often would you use them?

FIGURE 26: USE OF PROPOSED WALKS (WEST COAST RESIDENTS)

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

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West Coast residents indicated that they would most use the new and improved day walks frequently, and would participate on the tracks numerous times per year (68%, n=15).

FIGURE 27: USE OF PROPOSED WALK OPTIONS (VISITORS)

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

While visitors indicated that multi-day walks would be the most used option (see question 8), either multi-day walk would be used only every few years.

Question 10: Who would you use these walks with (ideally)?

FIGURE 28: PARTICIPATION OF GROUPS BY RESPONDENT TYPE

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

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The most popular option was walks on tracks with an unguided group, such as with friends or family, across respondent types. Also, a similar pattern of respondents identified they would prefer to go solo on the multi-day walks.

West Coast residents had the highest rate of likelihood to use these walks with a guided group (organised tour); however, these rates remained relatively low (17%, n=4).

Question 11: What elements would you like to see included as part of a multi-day walk (either through walk or return walk)?

TABLE 41: ELEMENTS TO INCLUDE IN THE MULTI-DAY WALKS

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Amenities Safe car parking, toilets, and accommodation (clean, comfortable, and warm).

Respondents were conflicted about the development of huts due to the high wild character values of the Tyndalls. However, they did agree on having a safe, sheltered area in case of abrupt bad weather, and the option to cook and freshwater.

Quality track work that is well maintained.

Close vehicle access to enable people with limited mobility to experience the stunning environment.

“A map and clear track signage. You could learn a lot from the track signage of the NYNJ Track Conference. They sell excellent maps and mark tracks to a consistent standard. Poor signage makes for a frustrating walk. Bells and whistles like benches for sitting, lean-tos or fire pits are good to have also.”– A survey respondent

Natural Tracks that capitalise on the great scenery and views. environment Tracks that are easily accessible for young children, with signs indicating when track becomes less suitable for particular age groups.

Tracks should maintain the ruggedness, that “embrace that rather than try to tame it”. – A survey respondent

Developing Lake Margaret Village.

Option for a longer return walk for people who want to do a 4 to 6-night trip.

Social Educating walkers about the local environment – including the geography, cultural considerations history, Aboriginal heritage, colonisers, mining, and the effects of mining on the landscape and its communities. Potentially through interpretative boards.

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Local employment for construction and maintenance of the tracks.

Low-impact walks that are not disruptive to the local environment and landscapes.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Amenities Good signage at start of walk on distance and time, with markers throughout the track.

Potentially tent-based camping, rather than hut-based accommodation. Accommodation should be located in low elevated areas, in case of bad weather conditions. Sufficient tent platforms or dry campsites required.

Availability of low-cost transport between the end and start of walks.

Options for additional mixed activities, such as the mix of walking, biking and rafting on West Coast.

No helicopter access.

Natural Through walks that link to towns (e.g. Bibbulmun Track in WA) so that “walkers environment can explore the unique towns of the W Coast as well as the wild landscapes and thereby benefit the towns by using local shops, eateries and accommodation. This would be a point of difference from other multi-day walks in Tas.” – A survey respondent

Boardwalk areas to minimise the impact on sensitive alpine environments.

Social Strong focus on supporting independent walking. Setup should not be primarily considerations focused on catering to guided, privatised walking.

Access to the public without an expensive fee. Respondents indicated that the “cost and time associated with accessing the West Coast is already inhibitive”. Potentially, no charge for locals. The cost structure is prohibitive to families or those less well off.

Well-maintained waste facilities.

Logbooks to record and communicate whether a sustainable level of usage is occurring in the area. “Vegetation, fauna and water quality checks regularly to assess impact—impartial and unbiased assessments by independent qualified environmental scientists.” – A survey respondent

Potential to cater for variable weather through a booking system (for a more extended season and satisfied walkers).

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

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Question 12: What elements would you like to see included as part of a new day walk or within upgrades of existing day walks?

TABLE 42: ELEMENTS TO INCLUDE IN THE DAY WALKS

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Amenities Safe parking.

Quality track work.

More family-friendly day walks, with a picnic table or two. More benches to sit.

Natural Track drainage, protection of vulnerable cushion plant terrains. environment ‘Spider web’ network of tracks that can be accessed out of Queenstown.

Tracks should maintain ruggedness, such as heading into the rainforest or mountain without being surrounded by duckboard and rails.

Social Education as per Question 11. Encouraging walkers to take part in research is considerations important, as a respondent stated that “people need to feel they have a duty of care to the environment they are walking in.”

Tracks should be built and maintained by a local contracting firm, preferably a social enterprise group such as West Coast Connect Inc.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Amenities Information boards at the beginning of the walks.

Safety precautions for inexperienced people in West Coast weather (warn walkers of the sensitivity of the area and dangers of unpredictable alpine weather).

Toilet spots.

Good signage and information.

BBQ facilities and picnic tables.

Access to maps, both small-scale (walk route) and large-scale maps (context to area and related sites of interest).

Access to extra facilities for all with no extra costs.

Potential for public art at the track heads.

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Shuttle services.

Enough car parking room.

Natural “High standard, discrete and unobtrusive interpretation. Sensitive track environment development with minimal visual impact.” – A survey respondent

Track upgrade to existing track only.

Multiple access routes, with a flexible network of suitable tracks and minimal supporting infrastructure. Circuits preferred over returns over the same track for variety.

Social Adequate low-cost and available transport options from existing centres, considerations e.g. tramways.

Clear process and public stakeholder inputs. Respondents wanted the ability to have input in what tracks to upgrade and what construction is proposed. This should include consultation with walking groups, companies, locals and businesses.

Historical mining interpretations.

Education and interpretation about the Aboriginal heritage of area. And of historical, cultural and natural features.

Zero disturbance or access to sensitive areas.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 13/14: How supportive are you of the following potential walking experiences based in the Tyndall Range?

FIGURE 29: LEVEL OF SUPPORT BY WALK OPTIONS AND RESPONDENT TYPE

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

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There was a substantially higher level of support of the options from West Coast residents compared to the visitors to the area. However, it must be remembered that West Coast respondents were few – 12 West Coast residents were supportive of the walks, while five were not. New and improved day walks gained a higher rate of support across all respondent types, relative to the multi-day options. Overall, the majority of visitors were “Unsupportive” or “Strongly unsupportive” of the multi-day options.

Can you please explain your answer?

TABLE 43: RESPONSES TO LEVEL OF SUPPORT

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Supportive Interesting track potential linking to an old cultural/historical track.

Brings visitors to West Coast.

Builds West Coast’s capacity to being regarded as a multi-sport/adventure destination.

Not supportive Extreme environmental vulnerabilities. Changeable and challenging weather conditions.

“New walks are not needed – improvement to existing infrastructure investments is.” – A survey respondent

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Supportive Support for day walks – provide the “best of both worlds” for relatively inexperienced walkers, and will spend more money on local businesses.

Not supportive Diminished natural and wilderness values (environmental degradation).

Infrastructure (mountain bike tracks, helicopter landing pads) incompatible with geography.

Insufficient budget to build new walking track to attract tourists and to maintain tracks. Perceived low economic return on investment.

Perception of the PWS to fall short of delivering on tracks.

Commercial/private monopolisation of tourist companies.

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Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 15/16: Do you think the following potential walking experiences based in the Tyndall Range could attract additional visitors/tourists to the West Coast?

FIGURE 30: LIKELIHOOD TO ATTRACT ADDITIONAL VISITORS

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

Figure 30 exhibited a similar spread of responses to Figure 29. About 50% (n=11) of West Coast residents expected the West Coast to gain “Significantly more visitors” across all walk options, while visitors to the area were more divided about the level of additional visitors.

Can you please explain your answer?

TABLE 44: RESPONSES ABOUT ADDITIONAL VISITORS

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Increased Increased young and local resident visitation and connection to West Coast region. visitors Travel for a long and “iconic” experience.

Incredible scenery.

Interesting history – “rugged and ravaged mining town”. – A survey respondent

Current options seem to be at full capacity.

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Decreased (None) visitors

Responses from visitors to the area

Themes Details

Increased Attracting walkers either from those that have already done the Three Capes visitors Track, or for an experience.

Diversity of walks.

Dependent on marketing strategies.

Adequate infrastructure will bring people in.

Current constraint supply of mass-market bushwalking experiences.

Interest through word-of-mouth.

Increased demand of hikers, as they prefer lengthy tracks.

Decreased Government developments will repel some visitors. visitors

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

Question 17: What positive impacts do you think a new walking experience in the Tyndall Range will have on the West Coast community?

TABLE 45: POTENTIAL POSITIVE IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Business “Even more interest in West Coast as an adventure destination.” – A survey opportunities respondent

The West Coast currently does not have a strong adventure recreation culture. “A new commercial walking experience in the Tyndall Range will join with the Mtb and other fledgling operations to provide a strong base for West Coast adventure recreation and professionalism. This will lead onto cultural change where the environment is seen as more than a source of resource exploitation but something intrinsically valuable in its own right.” – A survey respondent

Entrepreneurial activities, with the Tyndalls providing a brand to draw attractions in.

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Educational “Encourage a historical/cultural understanding of the West Coast and its mining benefits and the historical significance of this region.” – A survey respondent

Responses from visitors to the area

Themes Details

Business Increased visitation and also encourages people to stay longer in area, and opportunities opportunities of increased revenue for accommodation, experiences and food venues. Especially, opportunities to bring well-funded visitors from other destinations.

“Queenstown's industrial and environmental legacies set among WHA valued country. Better or improved walking opportunities on the West Coast help to continue a move away from the reliance on a paternal mining company and helps places like Queenstown as it continues to reinvent itself as a place for experiences of that unique, contrasting environment.” – A survey respondent

Branding and understanding of the West Coast as a rugged area of wilderness will encourage more visitation.

Accessibility New walking experiences will provide the ability for Tasmanians to explore more of the State and wilderness that they would not be able to access otherwise.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

Question 18: What can be done to strengthen the positive impacts for the West Coast community?

TABLE 46: STRATEGIES TO STRENGTHEN POSITIVE IMPACTS

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Tracks Queenstown needs to be the starting point for any walking adventure.

Re-orientation of iconic walk to link Queenstown as a hub for café, gear shops, accommodation and adventure.

Community Local community kept well informed and involved to feel as though they own a engagement stake in the uplift of the West Coast.

Possibly TAFE or University could open annex on the West Coast for tourism and adventure guides. Would benefit the Queenstown economy through local job creation.

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“Local involvement in developing the tracks strategy and construction. Appoint locals as guides, careful naming of the tracks with local input.” – A survey respondent

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Advertisement Advertising of restaurants and accommodation.

Promote walking in Tyndalls.

“A change of the land tenure to give the Tyndalls the classification it deserves, being national park and world heritage status. Note: that NP tenure and WH status has been long advocated (since pre-1990).” – A survey respondent

Community “Master plans by councils with a larger vision for towns and communities in engagement anticipation of the impacts. Tied to that bigger vision, an increased arts and culture investment to help tell the complicated but holistic story of the country and those communities people are visiting and walking. That is where the rich experience will be, and it's the point of difference from another 'wilderness experience'.” – A survey respondent

State and Australian government understanding of the West Coast and ongoing support.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 19: What negative impacts do you think a new walking experience in the Tyndall Range will have on the West Coast community?

TABLE 47: POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Environmental Concerns that track development will urbanise the wildlife, encourage littering, impacts and cause degradation from building. Risk in overdeveloping an area which is considered one of the last few places of pristine wildlife.

Potential fire damage and tree stripping if walkers are permitted to use wood stoves.

Destroying quiet way of the West Coast.

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Social concerns Complaints about how the track is a waste of taxpayer money, when the money can be directed to other unmaintained parks or areas that need more financial assistance.

Potential negative media spotlight from lost walkers or hazardous and miserable conditions.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Environmental Huts will detract from the wild nature of the West Coast. impacts Increased tourism congestion along the Lyell Highway and West Coast roads.

Social concerns Displaced and commercially priced out of commercial walks.

Dangerous rescues in poor weather conditions (which will destroy fragile ecosystem).

Contentious proposal will exacerbate community divisions.

Public concerns that the West Coast may become an adventure junkie playground, and make it a more expensive place to live, placing added stress on residents. This may lead to increased property and rental prices in the West Coast – residents may potentially face a shrinking long-term rental market from increased demand for short-term rental accommodation.

“There will be local resistance to being made into tourist towns which is fair enough as they are not necessarily nice places to live. Initially the people starting businesses based off the back of track development etc will be people from out of town. Who will buy up property and displace locals? Locals might initially benefit from some low paid jobs, but it will take time for the community to really experience benefits. It will be at least a small test of social cohesion, but it would be better in the long run than expecting nothing to last forever.” – A survey respondent

“Change in culture of the West Coast, who enjoy the quiet.” – A survey respondent.

Strain on (few) emergency services.

Benefits going to large tourist companies.

“Anecdotally, West Coasters love their way of life: remote, untapped, misunderstood weather. I do not like to think that ‘outsiders’ would over run their western wild with expectations of an extensive range of services that can be found in any ‘cookie cutter’ resort elsewhere in Australia or the world. This may lead to aggressive communications or negative feedback on travel forums.” – A survey respondent

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Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 20: What can be done to minimise the negative impacts for the West Coast community?

TABLE 48: STRATEGIES TO MINIMISE NEGATIVE IMPACTS

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Strategic Queenstown should be the starting point for the walks, so walkers can be direction educated about the history and cultural significance of West Coast communities. This will support businesses.

Advance the progress of development forward; “West Coast community is on its knees and seeking a way forward through eco-tourism.” – A survey respondent

Better marketing.

Community Education to locals to accept change and understanding money must be spent in engagement order to achieve capital growth.

Minimising Low-impact development and consideration. environmental impact Education campaign – information at track head on track etiquette (e.g. litter prevention) and preserving wild spaces.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Strategic Identify opportunities. direction Adopt alternative track routes.

Ongoing road upgrades and improvement to winter access (e.g. snow ploughing).

Transport arrangements to minimise local traffic conditions.

“State and federal government understanding of the West Coast and ongoing support.” – A survey respondent

Community Transparent decision-making process, including full transparency in feasibility engagement assessment (survey results and economic modelling) and stakeholder input throughout any development process.

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Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 21: Do you currently own, manage or work for a business that you think might be impacted by Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk project?

FIGURE 31: BUSINESSES THAT MAY BE IMPACTED FROM NIW BY RESPONDENT TYPE

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

The majority of responders stated that they did not own, manage or work for a business that would be impacted by the project. Of those that did own, manage or work for a business that would be impacted by Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk, there was a higher rate of West Coast respondents (33%) that responded that their businesses might be impacted compared to visitors (9%).

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Question 22: Where does your business operate?

FIGURE 32: LOCATIONS OF BUSINESSES BY RESPONDENT TYPES

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

About 75% of West Coast residents responded that they operate a business: 35% “In and around Queenstown”, and 19% “In the West Coast”. The majority of visitors (82%) did not operate a business.

Question 23: To what extent do you think your business might be impacted by the new walking experiences in the Tyndall Range?

FIGURE 33: EXTENT OF EXPECTED BUSINESS IMPACT BY VISIT

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

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Across respondent types and walk options, the extent to which respondents’ businesses might be affected was believed to be relatively “Neutral”.

Question 24: Please explain how your business might be impacted from the new walking experiences.

TABLE 49: POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Possible Improvements in attitudes and perception of the West Coast beyond extractive change in and polluting. attitudes

Increased Increased demand for adventure services. If not supported by facilities (e.g. bus demand for links), people may come for a walk and potentially leave. Businesses will be experiences encouraged to expand to cater for the influx of people and their demands for growing eco-tourism experiences.

Responses from visitors to the area

Themes Details

Tours “Multi-day, if commercial, likely restrictive (limited to one company with booking limits) may displace us and other walkers to other areas.” – A survey respondent

“One company I work for does day trips over multiple days out of local existing accommodation. We currently visit the Tarkine over five days but could easily warrant a more southerly trip with more walking options suiting a middle tier ability. The other company runs tent-based guided walks. With the right infrastructure, we could offer this new tour option.” – A survey respondent

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020

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Question 25: Can you see any opportunities for current businesses arising from new walking experiences in the Tyndall Range? Please provide detail.

TABLE 50: OPPORTUNITIES FOR CURRENT BUSINESSES FROM NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Economic Queenstown as a point of departure for any walking track would assist current development businesses. Current businesses will benefit from increased visitation, which will opportunities lead to supermarket expansion, growth of shuttle services, café and restaurants, as well as the improvement of accommodation.

Growing MTB experiences - “Abt Railway, Strahan Cruises, rafting and canoe activities, the West Coast will become a tourism mecca in a short space of time.” – A survey respondent

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Economic Respondents recognised that there were limited economic opportunities linked to development multi-day walk options. opportunities “If the West Coast became a popular destination, it could be more like Queenstown in NZ. If it were a full time viable tourist option, all services would be improved including health and social support etc. Something that locals often have to travel for.” – A survey respondent

Opportunities for art and culture to be linked to walks, as well as equipment rentals, group mentoring or talks, environmental research and remediation.

Private guiding companies will benefit; however, a few respondents were concerned about the standard and level of accreditation these companies had – possible problems linked with operational safety and environmental breaches.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

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Question 26: Can you see any opportunities for future businesses arising from new walking experiences in the Tyndall Range? Please provide detail.

TABLE 51: OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE BUSINESSES FROM NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Future “Future opportunities for walking experiences on the west would encourage the employment younger generation of west coasters to stay and find more and a variety of employment. They may be encouraged to develop businesses of their own. A broader type [of] education would be the key to help the development of these communities on the West Coast.” – A survey respondent

Business “The Mountain Bike developments now emerging with Queenstown as their opportunities central hub are already changing the way hospitality, cultural and other tourist businesses are thinking about their approaches and marketing. Future businesses including guiding and interpretation, river experiences and of course gear supply are possibilities.” – A survey respondent

Future business opportunities include guiding, gear sales and hire, spas, massage and health services, quality accommodation and dining.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Business “Landcare and Wildcare type groups to rehabilitate and revegetate the damaged opportunities environment. Increased pressure off emergency services who are already stressed.” – A survey respondent

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views from visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 27: What are the barriers or potential barriers for local, existing or future businesses expanding due to these new walking experiences?

TABLE 52: POTENTIAL BARRIERS FOR LOCAL, EXISTING OR FUTURE BUSINESSES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

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Walk locations Barriers if walking experience bypasses the West Coast communities by not including town experience within the walking location. Queenstown should be the starting point.

Toll on Not being ready to support tourist demands. businesses Finding quality staff.

All-inclusive tour companies capturing tourist demand and revenue. Local communities and businesses will be faced to compete with operators, who have larger budgets to promote their packages.

Responses from visitors to the area

Themes Details*

Limited Multi-day walks will limit the amount of visitor spend as overnight walkers are self- business sufficient with food, accommodation and transportation. opportunity “Inadequate visitor number to make business financially viable, seasonal visitor fluctuations, making it hard to support business over winter. Few transport options unless visitors (i.e. not Tasmanian residents) hire a car or bring their own on the ferry.” – A survey respondent

Toll on Businesses may fail in meeting marketing expectations. businesses Lack of skills. There is a need for training and mentoring to give people confidence for potential start-ups.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 28: What could be done to improve these business opportunities?

TABLE 53: POTENTIAL POSITIVE IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Walking Walking options should all start in Queenstown. experience Should include culture and history of place, and provide a better understanding to walkers about the land they are engaged in.

Businesses Make connections to an already developing community hub such as Queenstown.

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Furthering opportunities for resident opportunities, outside of tourism and mining.

Stakeholder engagement with businesses (and residents). Current local government are not respected representation of the community, so direct consultation is the preferred approach (via Destination West Coast committee).

Responses from visitors to the area

Themes Details*

Businesses Education to business owners (maps and visual aid).

Advertise local accommodation options close to the tracks.

Focus on building strengths of West Coast sites.

Promote winter activities on the West Coast.

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 29: How do you think COVID-19 has impacted the nature-based tourism market in Australia?

TABLE 54: COVID-19 IMPACTS ON THE AUSTRALIAN TOURISM MARKET

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Fitness and A change for healthier lifestyles. wellbeing “COVID-19 has given us an opportunity to rethink the way we have been running our lives and see if we can make changes that can provide us with a better and healthier lifestyle. We need to rethink relying on overseas travellers who might see nature-based walks as another one that they have ticked off without really engaging with the environment they are in. Nature walks should be about the quality of the experience more about each person being more engaged and challenged about the place they are in. An understanding of their place in it.”– A survey respondent

Visitation Increase of local visitation (intrastate and interstate), especially with government coupons.

Massive short notice cancellations.

Fall of international tourism, as well as border uncertainty, has poorly impacted the nature-based market.

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International visitation has not affected the West Coast all that much, as it is only a small part of their business.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Appreciation of “People have come to appreciate their local areas in the absence of tourists, and local and green have realised how large numbers of tourists detract from their experience.” – A areas survey respondent

“It’s made people value nature and get turned off ‘packaged’, green-washed tourism. NZ is pulling back from over-developed national parks.” – A survey respondent

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 30: How could the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service capitalise on these impacts when delivering the Next Iconic Walk project?

TABLE 55: CAPITALISING ON IMPACTS OF THE NEW WALKING EXPERIENCES

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Community Get the community involved, such as through naming tracks, reference group and engagement marketing.

Emphasis on local through making connections across communities and consolidating local culture.

Track Provide more and better facilities, such as toilets, representation in Queenstown.

Expedited completion of Tyndall Track and include in Tourism Tasmania Marketing before 2021 ends.

Promote as an accessible and quintessential Tasmanian experience for all Australians, and a new experience for Tasmanian walkers.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

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Marketing “Keep new walks minimal impact and embrace the wilderness brand Tasmania is known for.” – A survey respondent

“By clearly demonstrating that the risk of contracting COVID-19 is very low due to the application of appropriate COVID-19 Safe protocols.” – A survey respondent

PWS staff “To have more personnel including track rangers and hut wardens, so people feel very supported and informed of what they are looking at and doing.” – A survey respondent

Variety of “True multilayer, e.g. 9-10 day grand Randonnée style route; consider a linked true experiences multi-user track, e.g. mountain bike, bushwalk, paddle/kayak and horse ride or quad bike on non-vulnerable tracks.” – A survey respondent

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

Question 31: How could the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service maximise the benefit from a new walk if international and interstate travel is restricted?

TABLE 56: MAXIMISING BENEFIT WITH RESTRICTED TRAVEL

Responses from West Coast residents

Themes Details

Local tourism Concentrate on the local as the future tourist (Tasmanian and Australian focus) as interpreters and entrepreneurs of the walking experience. These travellers should be advertised to; recent research shows Tasmanians do not travel to the West Coast as they believe there is not much to offer.

“Many Tasmanians who have been to the West Coast during COVID-19 are seeing not only their State but also the west in a completely new way. Mainlanders are arriving in the State are saying the same. We spend so much effort to travel internationally that we have forgotten what a beautiful part of the world we live in and haven’t taken the time to experience it as we should have.” – A survey respondent

Walk can be fine-tuned to include the Lake Margaret Village Development, which would enhance the Hydro Power Station and Iconic Walk experience while travel restrictions are in place.

Appeal to people who actually live in area where this development happens. “Local people are also less likely to support endeavours that are harmful to the environment.” – A survey respondent

Marketing locals as “brand ambassadors” and “early adopters”.

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Quality of the “Using Queenstown as a hub for the walking experience allows for variations in experiences the experiences of the visitor and opens up a multivalent environmental context which would encourage repeat visitation. So many of the Tasmanian visitors I encounter at the Galley Museum repeat the mantra of visiting Queenstown many years ago, 30 or 40 in lots of cases. Getting them to return more often will require a rich multi-dimensional experience of nature and culture and not an isolated ‘drive in/drive out’ type of experience.” – A survey respondent

Heavily discounted or free for Tasmanian residents for the first walk.

Responses from visitors to the area *

Themes Details

Diversity and Range of experience matters in appealing to all markets – local, domestic and quality of international. experiences “Promoting its remoteness, walking pretty much anywhere in Tasmania is very different from most walks in Europe for instance, they are truly remote with no/limited road access and don’t pass through towns. I have friends and family overseas and I think currently remoteness and the natural is very attractive.” – A survey respondent

“Present the West Coast as a nice place to visit, rather than giving the impression that it’s a place full of dead end mining towns. It always seems ignored compared to Cradle Mountain and the East Coast. Important not to gentrify it though. Nothing wrong with showing something a little bit different.” – A survey respondent

Cost “Day walk tracks cater for all, not just the rich. Only the rich do the multi-day guided luxury hut walks and their spending leaves Tas.” – A survey respondent

Offer 5 or 10-year renewals of parking permits, or “50% off for locals, free during winter, priority booking etc. Creating hype and awarding completion badges, i.e. Tyndalls2021 or similar will drive local and national participation.” – A survey respondent

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2020 *Views of visitors were largely consistent with the views of local residents. Additional comments by visitors to the area have been noted in this section.

13.2 Engagement with walking service providers

This appendix summarises a rapid early engagement with selected current Tasmanian walking sector providers, and a limited selection of West Coast adventure specialists. The engagement was conducted by Claire Ellis, of Claire Ellis Consulting, from December 2020 to January 2021. It focused on gathering operator perspectives about the opportunities and issues they perceive for their businesses from the creation by the PWS of a new multi-day walk out of Queenstown.

This summary does not include:

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• the views of local Queenstown and West Coast accommodation, food, retail and service providers who are also likely to be able to grow their business as the outdoor adventure market in the area expands • topics already covered in the analysis of the new multi-day walk, such as the changing context of multi-day walking across Australia, or the market testing of potential consumers.

Approach Dr Ellis searched the web for walking service providers in Tasmania to create an initial contact list, and she also gained further inputs from:

• West by North West Regional Tourism • West Coast Tourism • Tourism Tasmania • West Coast Council • Destination South.

During the course of the work, the scope was widened slightly and West Coast specialist outdoor adventure companies (bike, paddle and climbing) were added. Two recreational entities were contacted, Paddle Tasmania and Climbing Tasmania, and a consultancy currently developing a climbing strategy for the West Coast Council, to ensure non-commercial organisations (clubs and social groups) were included.

In summary, 20 interviews were conducted, and an additional operator was spoken with, highly interested but unable to set an interview time due to workloads. Four tourism associations/entities were contacted.

Other potential operators not interviewed include:

• photography tour specialists (a couple of Hobart-based ones exist) • site-specific (currently) walk operators • larger well-known walking companies • walk distributors only.

No material or maps were sent to the operators, but during the introduction it was explained that as these discussions were at an early stage of the planned walk development, the walk could be:

• Option 1: a three-day, two-night through walk likely to start at Anthony Road and continue to Lake Margaret, involving 10-15 km walked per day and overnight huts or camping provided in stunning terrain (no road access to overnight nodes) • Option 2: a return walk to an amazing overnight location, which could be one night or even two nights in the wilderness (no road access to overnight nodes), huts or camping • The benchmark: a significant improvement of full-day and part-day walks in the area, allowing base camp walking and the further development of Queenstown as an adventure hub.

It was also noted, during each interview, that the overall goal was to build Tasmania’s walking offer, to directly grow regional jobs, and to indirectly grow the area by creating a new drawcard that significantly builds the West Coast visitor economy.

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Overall The operators were very appreciative of the opportunity to provide input and hear about the work. There was a general feel that they are largely not consulted about future opportunities.

Sectoral positioning The interviewed businesses were generally either very small-scale Tasmanian based entities, or were larger tour-based operators with a walk focus (including four based interstate), and can be broadly categorised by their offer:

• guiding and interpreting on site • operating transport and gear for self-guided walkers • operating day tours that focus on walking • operating multi-day tours focused on walking • mixed – transport and tours • walking, kayaking and rafting multi-day adventures • outdoor adventure.

The businesses could be characterised as highly responsive to the gaps and opportunities in the market. Most commented that the walking market in Tasmania (and elsewhere) has grown rapidly and is continuing to change, so the businesses flex and deliver to market demand, building custom solutions to queries, although most also have set offers or products. For instance, one of the Australia-wide walking companies noted “We let the walk fully develop and then watch other companies start up and develop their product on that walk and can see what works before we design our own with a twist (if it fits our market).”

Virtually all operators noted the need to add value, have a point of difference, and deliver a needed service. While COVID-19 has obviously created changes in their business models as they worked to appeal to more local markets, the comments were not limited to this. For instance, the PWS has encouraged walker transport from Lake St Clair, and this was cited by several as altering their business options. More broadly, the extent the PWS provides services in and around a walk (or contracts one provider to do so) limits other operators’ capacity to build their own business around that walk. A major aspect of this is the booking system. Operators noted the need for flexibility. Some operators prefer to require the guest to do their own walk bookings, while others are providing an all-inclusive tour and need to be able to pre-book group travel and ideally have the walk as a commissionable product. Currently, the PWS-based walks in Tasmania do not use the traditional tourism distribution systems, as there has been little need due to consistently high demand.

A second area noted was that the level of soft and hard infrastructure already built into the walk by the PWS alters the need for walkers to hire additional support (such as a guide for safety, wayfinding and interpretation). The supply of commercial multi-day walk ‘products’ in Australia and NZ has rapidly grown (author notes it is at least 70-80, and more are in planning or construction). This means there is growing competition to attract walkers. It was noted that commercial operators need to be connected to these walks to drive marketing, create alternative options, and make total walk products that appeal and cater to the preferences and needs of different sectors of the walk market. This is particularly important to keep a walk at the forefront of potential walker minds over years.

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Current markets All noted that the walker market is widening. Any single walk, and any single walking company, will not suit the whole market. Most operators did not target the Tasmanian market, as Tasmanian walkers tend to be self-organised, low yield, and independently organise car shuttles etc. However, some transport operators noted they are sometimes used for drop-off or pick-up by Tasmanian walkers. A business noted it caters specifically to fairly experienced and independent walkers visiting multi-day non-tourism walking tracks. The exception to this was those involved primarily in other outdoor adventure activities, such as climbing and bouldering. There was the perception that the initial growth in these markets would be in Tasmania.

The majority of operators noted their markets were largely domestic (not just due to COVID-19), and repeat walkers coming to Tasmania is high. They come mostly from the eastern seaboard: Qld, NSW, ACT, Vic. A few operators had a significant international market of 50% and higher. These walkers specifically wish to engage in walking while visiting, and they need gear and support to ensure the best use of short timeframes.

It was noted by several that there had been a growth in group travel. Post- COVID-19, one operator noted group bookings are five to six times higher than pre- COVID-19, particularly requests for private and exclusive group travel, but thought this may drop over time as COVID-19 impacts settle. All operators felt the West Coast walk had the potential to be a strong drawcard for their target markets and the area and landscape are sufficiently appealing, has ‘wow’ factors, and “amazes their current visitors”.

Comments included:

• The area appeals to both experienced walkers and softer walkers as it has a variety of options. • The new walk will not be for the current visitors who are older and less active (rail, cruise Macquarie Harbour), and this is about attracting a new type of visitor. • It will not be for everyone, but we do not need large numbers: an iconic drawcard will have flow-on effects. • Currently only experienced walkers visit who are prepared and knowledgeable and do their own research, so a new walk needs to attract the softer market. • Its appeal will depend on how it is operated (bookings, price, and commercial viability). • The current sweet spot is the older walker, carrying only a daypack, and walking about five hours per day. • Clients are aged 40-60 years, reasonably fit, and like a challenge. For them, 10-15 km per day is the sweet spot, and their trip is about 6 days (which they can grow to 9 days etc), so they would add other walks to this one. • The West Coast is often a visitor’s second (or greater) trip to Tasmania, not their first. • For our clients, this is a ‘once in a lifetime’ trip to come to this corner of Tasmania, so we would add other things in a tour. • Combination activities – walk, paddle and cycle – are growing rapidly. More specialised activities, such as mountain biking, climbing and bouldering, are not seen as likely to be combined in a single trip. Usually, offering less specialised, add-on activities suitable for a whole group is better. • Our tours attract families looking for adventure, couples late 20s through to late 40s, professionals who like camping and have had some experience, but also like comforts. Internationals are a wider age range, including ‘flash packers’ who are younger and some older, mid-60s, who are fit but need someone to do the legwork. • We are now around 90% female bookings, which shows growth in this part of the market. SGS ECONOMICS AND PLANNING: TASMANIA’S NEXT ICONIC WALK FEASIBILITY STUDY 145

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• There is rapid growth in group bookings. • The variety of current types of walkers catered for includes: o ‘softer’ walkers on packaged tours – they want support around selection of the best tracks, overnight comfort, the best use of time in Tasmania etc o experienced independent walkers – they need some logistics and transport support o bushwalking and other clubs – they are usually self-managed, but may use transport o schools and outdoor education groups – they are usually self-managed, but may use transport and logistical help.

One issue raised was the growth in ‘social media’ groups where a ‘leader’ organises a trip (of strangers) via social media, but the leader has not walked the area before and has no experience, insurance, Parks licence or skills.

There was some variation in comments around the development of an adventure hub, and likelihood for walkers to do other activities, and vice versa. Generally young, fit cyclists will do other high energy, extreme activities, and older walkers will do softer combinations, but not mountain biking (and cycling needs to be on an appropriate track). For instance, older walkers would do a 3-4 hour kayak, and this is seen as a rapid growth area. Specialist skill activities such as climbing may create interest and add to an adventure hub ‘brand’, but they are not likely to be undertaken by many people. Bouldering may be an exception as it is a rapidly growing activity, requiring little gear, and is currently being pushed by a number of city gyms.

‘Non-walkers’ will walk if the walk is part of a wider trip, and the reason to walk is to get somewhere or see something.

Walk options There was broad interest in a West Coast multi-day walk. A new walk was noted as able to provide high appeal, and would act as a drawcard, but it was also noted a walk would not suit all walker types.

Three walk options (as noted above) were given. Operators were asked which they would prefer in terms of building their own business, and about flow-on effects for local towns. Comments included:

• Be bold and push something unique, don’t dumb it down. • Go for high quality and comfort (lease to private operator if need to service). • The journey is important (A to B). • The length of the walk will matter. But if the purpose was not to just come, do the walk and go, so it was part of a larger tour, then the walk length was not as material. The destination rather than the walk characteristics are critical. • The issue with longer trips are guests are bussed in, do the trip and then bussed out, and there is little local benefit except the ‘iconic’ profile. • Currently offered are three-day and five-day trips to the West Coast; the five-day trips are slightly more popular, and those visitors are searching for experiences. • Build a really good track, take advantage of every viewpoint. • Build for groups. • The fagus is excellent in autumn, and better than at Mt Field, and the walk and its marketing could feature this. • It is better to build an iconic short walk that can be built into existing tour packages and create extra nights in the West Coast. • The quality of other local day walks was mentioned – Mt Owen, Mt Murchison, Montezuma Falls, Mt Donaldson and others.

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The increasing social licence issues concerning commercialisation and built infrastructure in the PWS have also created wariness by some operators. While it was not raised by the interviewer, operators most explicitly noted the need to keep Tasmania’s walking reputation strong, and they disagreed with models such as private huts, specifically noting they did not want private huts to be built on a new walk. Some raised concerns about remote developments and the need to be more careful about Tasmania’s long-term brand reputation. Virtually all agreed with the PWS huts and shelters being built, noting the weather and need for safety and security.

Comments included:

• It is good the walk is being built as it is not a national park, so the PWS is listening now. • Sensitive areas and footfall will create erosion, so put in boardwalks, but these are an eyesore too (Three Capes Track was used as an example), so build this track properly into the landscape, so it blends better. • How will we keep walkers on the tracks, as they can easily wander off in many places and will create new paths and ‘eyesores’ (due to the sensitive aspects of the alpine flora). • We do not want to see bushwalkers locked out of places they used to be able to go to, by adding private huts and operators and making those places only available to people who pay. • One operator would support free for all, or accept user pays for huts if camping is free, just does not like exclusivity.

While it was commented by some that Tasmanian walkers may ‘stay and play’ on the West Coast, Tasmanians are largely not the target market of those interviewed. The Tasmanian walker group were considered to add little to a local economy, as the majority drive in, walk and go. Operators noted the likely exception to this was the outdoor adventure hub concept, which would attract Tasmanians and create additional overnight stays.

Start and finish point of the walk There was broad agreement that the start or finish should be in Queenstown, which would better create West Coast business opportunity and decrease the ‘drop off, walk, drive out’ mentality. They noted some walk providers constructed their walks this way, and the track head really needed to be in Queenstown to stop commercial tourism operators (CTOs) and independent walkers from doing this.

Hence there was general agreement there should be no car parking etc at the track start and finish, but provision in town for this.

Other comments:

• Anthony Road is a spectacular road, one of the best drives in the State, so feature it. • As all operators recognised the government’s desire to increase local jobs on the West Coast, they generally suggested an early start and late return from the walk would enhance pre and post-overnights in Queenstown or Tullah. • Walkers wishing to depart at a different time could be linked to a ‘logistics support’ package offered by one or more commercial operators.

Transport Public buses from Hobart and Launceston would enhance walker options, but most operators saw transport provision and tours as one of the main value-add propositions they are providing for walkers.

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Few were interested in seeing a PWS-preferred supplier operating from Hobart or Launceston as this would cannibalise their offer. A number noted the high cost one-off transfers added, and so recognised the need for a solution to grow the walker market, allowing walkers to choose their preferred price point and service levels.

Multi-day walk operations Once the walk has been more fully designed, operators will be able to see what the PWS enabling walker product is, and where, and how, they can add value, and if it meets their target market.

While views varied, virtually all operators noted the need for huts given the weather. Most acknowledged the desire for a level of comfort is a clear growth area in the walker market, and there will be demand for it. Views varied in terms of the business model and level of comfort that should be provided by the PWS versus commercial operators.

Some operators already noted a ‘tourism-oriented’ walk is not likely to be attractive to the majority of their market, but, overall, a new walk would still grow Tasmania’s reputation and position as a walking destination, and hence be positive.

Booking is a huge issue for some operators, as it is hard to develop packages if an operator cannot book the walk for a client.

Provision and interest in day walks or part-day walks There was high recognition of the good diversity of existing walks in the area and wider region. However, many are not well known. Walking operators noted local businesses generally would prefer to see an adventure hub concept, multiple day or part-day walks developed, and overnight stays in Queenstown to grow local jobs. Several national tour operators only use commercial accommodation and will not add a PWS-based hut model walk (but would be interested in walking a section as a day walk). Most acknowledged the value of a multi-day walk as an iconic attractor and noted it could be a good addition to current options. A new walk would help build a very strong suite of walks, but many felt the highest priority for scarce funds was to develop day or part-day walks, not a multi-day walk.

It was noted that existing day or part-day walks provide a good variety for different levels of skills and interest (although one operator noted current walks are largely hard or easy, and more medium high-quality walks in the Queenstown area are needed). Walks mentioned, that could be developed further to increase the destination’s walker appeal, included:

• Mt Owen, Mt Huxley, Mt Jukes • Nelson Falls • Henty Dunes and Ocean Beach • Spray tunnel • Montezuma Falls (needs toilet upgrade) • Mt Murchison (considered one of Tasmania’s best) • Kelly Basin/Pillinger/Bird River • Mt Farrell • and less well-known ones like all the ‘peak bagger’ peaks: Dundas, Heemskirk, Zeehan etc.

The concept of an adventure hub was very well liked. Not all respondents linked it to business growth for their own business, but generally all felt it would, overall, strongly grow the area, and this would then enable them to grow their own products. Broad comments included:

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• The hub could widen and include the Tullah area and even the Tarkine. • It should include paddling, kayaking, and rafting and (to a lesser extent) cycling, climbing and bouldering.

Overall, it was noted there was a big growth in part-day and day walking. Business operator comments included:

• This is our growth area and we transport people to Arthur Range and Cradle where they base themselves and do walks from there, as getting a hire car in summer is expensive and they do not need it. • Currently the self-drive market is dominant, and so tour charter operators are really hurting. An adventure hub with day walks creates much wider appeal (than a multi-day walk) and gives more scope for operators to build different packages for different visitors (including adding experiences across the region in Strahan, Tullah etc). • Tours using part-day or day walks create more local jobs and spend, as visitors use local providers, such as cafés, extensively. • While a local Queenstown-based shuttle to build the hub servicing concept was generally thought of as a good local business option, a number of tour operators noted they focus on walks that are too hard to get to yourself (so they are adding value). • There was a variety of views about the marketing of short walks: o Need to use these walks to create packages that others cannot replicate – so this needs consideration. o One operator noted he did not advertise which walks he would include on a tour (as he altered them based on weather and walker experience), and he also chose less well-known and more isolated walks, so he didn’t want them advertised, and this was a value-add a commercial tour operator (CTO) can bring. • In contrast, one operator suggested make a database of walks such as a ‘60 Great Short Walks of the West Coast’, as even for CTOs, many walks are hard to find, and this could include grading, points of interests such as mining and landscape, and how to get there. Some walks need a series of improvements to ensure sustainability. • Recognition that a drawcard is needed to change visitation levels – either directly (a high- volume walk) or indirectly (a highly appealing but difficult walk, with most walkers only undertaking a section, or a nearby walk). • Day walks would need to be truly world class to work.

Multi-day walk options Multi-day walking in this discussion (following) is broader than a walk from A to B and includes the merits of different models in Tasmania and interstate.

Commercial operators commented about multi-day walk designs and provided suggestions about how their participation can be maximised to deliver economic and social benefits.

If the PWS operates the walk, how track access is managed (e.g. a booking systems and consideration to allowing access to the first and last day) will affect commercial operator’s ability to participate (add the new walk to tours). Encouraging stays in local town accommodation, before and after the walk, will increase local value adding opportunities (reducing ‘drive in, walk and drive out’ patterns of use). The Tasmanian Wilderness Guide Association noted that a highly constructed shorter walk, like Option 2 compared to Option 1, will reduce demand for guides.

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They also noted this may be preferable as the changeable weather meant actual itineraries were often built flexibly. If the walk was bookable, there would be interest by national level operators (provided it fitted their target market and business model).

Many operators commented that multi-day walk visitation is dominated by larger providers, and these, and independent walkers, just drive visitors from Hobart or Launceston to walk start, and drive them out again from the finish track head. There is little local return, guides often do not live locally, and provisions are not sourced locally. Rafting trips, climbing trips, and other well-known walks, such as Frenchmans Cap, are seen as having many of the same issues.

However, it was also noted that to grow the destination appeal for walkers, an iconic multi-day walk may be needed. One of the transport and gear hire companies noted, “While day and part-day walks from Queenstown are good, an expedition overnight hike will get more awareness in the market. This is more what people are interested in.”

Several noted that walkers will stay before and after the walk in Queenstown, particularly if encouraged to by early start and late finish times. These operators also see the success of the adventure hub concept as an essential component to attract walkers to stay longer.

As the proposed multi-day walk has no road access to overnight stops, returning to Queenstown to overnight is not feasible. Commercial overnight accommodation off track, with associated comforts, is a preferred model for several interviewed walking companies. Instead, they will grow their business using other day walks in the area, or a section of the walk if the iconic multi-day walk created strong appeal in the market. They also noted this type of multi-day walk, where walkers stay at a base, is growing and highly attractive to a wider market, and needs more consideration.

A transport provider noted that a new multi-day walk could open the possibility to package up with the Overland Track (it would do transport and logistics, but let the visitor do walk bookings and permits).

The two-day, one-night option was not picked up as appealing by many operators. Most operators stated the longer walk would be more effective in the market. One operator, who knew the area well, noted it takes a few hours to climb up, and you would want two days up there to make it worthwhile.

Others noted it would be too short to sell, would be commercially unviable as a standalone, and likely to not be appealing as not long enough to deliver the walk experience visitors are seeking (not enough time). Stating it from the visitor perspective, “You need at least three days. Anything else is not long enough and it will not rank as an experience and get them out there. We started with six nights as our shortest multi-day walk, but have made it less as the market has softened. The first day you just get started, the second day it hurts, and third you are fine, you get in the groove and need to have the three days for the mental escape side, it isn’t just physical.” Others noted that, while the market has shifted to shorter trips, three days is ideal as it can still be combined with other activities on the West Coast to make a one-week trip.

One operator did state a central base camp or hut in the wild would sell really well, but would need day walks from there. This could work, as pretty severe weather changes meant visitors can stay indoors and not walk if they don’t want to (they then noted this is why a Queenstown base may be preferable).

Marketing Tourism Tasmania sector marketing (walking) stated they usually only work with larger operators and did not work directly with most of the listed operators contacted for this study. They noted the regional or local tourism associations would be likely to be the industry point of contact. This indicates these

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Tasmanian operators appear to be marketing at a destinational level, not sectorally. Several operators during interviews noted the PWS website as a source of business for them (and a marketing tool), rather than the traditional tourism industry distribution system. Hence the capacity to grow the walk and its reputation, and then maintain walker interest, would potentially be reliant on the PWS marketing, and West Coast destination marketing. For instance, one small local operator noted, “We don’t market much as we like people to find us and decide this is what they want, not for us to have marketed to them.”

This analysis did not ask specifically about marketing, but general comments included:

• Excellent communication will be needed to make planning simple in this area, and this would substantively lift visitation levels. Recent changes to the PWS website has not been positive according to one operator, as the website no longer notes which transport operators are Hobart or Launceston based, or operating only across summer or all year round. • A walk needed to be made iconic as it needs to provide substantive lift in visitation. • A walk needs to be long enough that it is an experience and a challenge, so people brag and recommend it, as they get something … it must work in social media. • The area is stunning and has the necessary visual appeal. • The rugged wildness should not be underplayed. It does not need to appeal to all walkers. Sell across seasons and make the wild aspect part of the appeal. • It is likely to attract repeat walkers in Tasmania (not be their first walk). • Need to have commercial operator marketing, particularly over time to get long-term market traction. • Multiple CTO involvement with different packages, products, and target markets can significantly assist marketing. • Rather than considering it as a single product (a new multi-day walk), it would be most successful and create better outcomes if it was combined with other walks in an outdoor adventure hub, so driving its destination focus. This may rapidly help reposition the local brand, enable the destination to become known as an adventure playground, and grow the flow-on and indirect benefits such as local food, hospitality and accommodation providers, as well as physio, allied health, and wider areas such as arts. • Consider highlighting the short walk and alternative ‘tough’ walks in the area for other types of walkers to improve the social licence and raise awareness of the wider area. • Building the adventure hub concept helps create add-ons that encourage people to stay longer (5-7 nights).

Links with other outdoor adventure activities • Paddle Tasmania saw the scope for new paddling business/es on Macquarie Harbour and potentially other locations such as Lake Burbury, the potential for standing camps, and for walk–kayak options at Lake Burbury and King River. It would be worth examining the ability to have an access point through the top end of Lake Burbury. This option poses considerable risks due to impacts on existing Exploration Permit holders. • Mt Owen mountain bike tracks will detract from day and part-day walkers in the area, and some of these walks are not high quality, just another track up a hill. • Climbers travel a different way up to the Tyndall Range using powerline access and camp at a different place (cave), so this is no issue. Their numbers are likely to remain low due to the level of expertise required.

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• Visitors coming for specialist activities (climbing, bouldering, rafting, mountain biking and experienced walkers such as those doing Frenchmans Cap) are not likely to overlap with soft walkers. Specialist locations and experiences are quite well known/iconic within their own niche, and can raise the profile and brand of the area. The multi-day walk could provide an easier option. Simpler experiences suited to beginners across many of these specialist activities could be offered, and may well provide potential for crossover target markets. • A current consultancy for the West Coast Council examining climbing and bouldering is under way. There appears to be potential for growth in the bouldering market, and could establish beginner sites within an hour of the start or finish of a walk. Someone coming to principally boulder would not be interested in paying a walker fee to access the track. • Sport climbing is likely to remain a specialist area undertaken non-commercially. Currently there are quite low numbers as there is no commercial operator, and expertise and gear are needed, but the area could attract more Tasmanian climber families and friends to join a trip.

Other comments not included above • When regions were first asked to submit ideas to the PWS, Queenstown locals’ first walk option was the Mt Owen story undertaken as a one-day walk. It could also be extended to Huxley, so the walk would be a one-day loop, or extended further to be a two-day or three-day loop finishing near King River. • A few operators noted Bob Brown’s alternative walk for the West Coast as a better option. • The upper pipeline at Lake Margaret has spectacular views, and operators receive regular requests, but Hydro will not let you go there. It is a one-hour, 3-4 km boardwalk. • There are unlikely to be issues with Queenstown residents about the walk, its commercialisation and charging for hut usage, but the wider Tasmanian community will have views. • Season is an issue, and wet, cold weather can make it a walk on the wild side, but this also lends itself to being presented as short walks. Walkers could stop and wait in Queenstown for weather windows to open up and then, for instance, walk Mt Huntley. Spending one or two nights in the same hut might work. Also, the PWS could think differently and, during summer, offer the pre-booked three-day walk A to B, and in the off-season open both ends to no- booking-required ‘weather window’ walkers. • Phone coverage will be necessary to manage rescues. • Across winter, wind and heavy rain will be too inclement. • There is a critical need to review insurance for outdoor adventure operators if we want to grow this market.

13.3 The current multi-day walker market

The multi-day walking sector is maturing rapidly and is expected to go through substantial further change, creating some considerations.

• Product differentiation is becoming vital as the marketplace becomes more competitive. • Not all existing or new multi-day walks are rapidly delivering their anticipated visitation. • Rapidly changing supply and demand are demonstrating the need to create long-term flexibility or upgrades in products to enable innovation. For instance, built infrastructure can become outdated and not meet contemporary preferences. • Differences exist between Park-based approaches across Australia.

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• There is growth in the number, style and size of companies offering multi-day walks to the consumer. This varies from local tour operators to national and international entities and ‘non- traditional’ tourism operators such as clubs, associations and outdoor education. • Private small groups of walkers (friends and multi-generational families etc) are prepared to organise their own walking trips. This is increasing as walking trips with different levels of preparatory requirements and experiences become available. • Strong trends in health and wellness, social reconnection, and the appeal of nature are likely to continue to drive growth in the foreseeable future.

The design of this walk will affect:

• how it fits with the suite of walking offers across Australia and Tasmania • how it fits with experience offers in and around the West Coast • the perceived need to buy extra support (e.g. transport, gear, guides) • the total price • local job creation.

Hence, the walk needs to be contextualised from a visitor perspective, looking at appropriate extra or alternative options (such as short walks, harder walks, remote camping options etc). The overall social, economic and environmental outcomes will alter based on these nuances.

Overall, the strategic sectoral development of walking across Tasmania (through products such as the 60 Great Short Walks) has been highly successful. Tasmanian Visitor Survey (TVS) data (year end March) from 2017-2019 shows total bushwalkers forming about 44.5-47% of all visitors, and those undertaking any type of walk as 52-54% of all visitors. Multi-day walkers (bushwalk overnight or longer) were 3.1-3.6% of all visitors. The 2018-2019 data showed a slight drop in overall walker proportions compared to the two previous years across all types of walking examined.

Tasmania has established a prominent domestic walking position that is likely to have strengthened further since data summarised in The Victorian Track Strategy 2014-2024 (no longer in use) stated “in relation to ‘offering iconic walks in a natural setting’, Victoria is in fourth position (12%) behind Queensland (23%), New South Wales (19%) and Tasmania (17%), with Tasmania jumping to first place when excluding respondents who identified their own State” (sourced from Tourism Victoria’s Brand Health Survey Roy Morgan Research, July 2013).

The current supply side In the development of the Myriad Research market testing work (completed Oct 2020), a feeder suite of questions was developed seeking information on respondents’ multi-day walking in the previous five years, and planned walking in the next three years. Nearly 60% stated they had walked the Three Capes Track in the last five years, and it was overwhelmingly the most popular walk across the last five years among this sample.

The data revealed:

• walkers generally repeat the activity regularly • the 814 respondents had done 2,339 walks in the past five years (an average of 2.8 per person) • the 814 respondents planned 3,163 walks in the next three years (average 3.9 per person).

The most commonly walked tracks were (walks with over 100 responses):

• the Three Capes Track (485 walkers)

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• the Overland Track (208 walkers) • Wilsons Promontory Walk, Victoria (143 walkers) • Great Ocean Road Walk, Victoria (126 walkers) • Base camp Blue Mountains, New South Wales (122 walkers) • Base camp Cradle Walk (not Overland Track) (106 walkers).

Interestingly, ‘base camp walking’ is not a common term, but the capacity to undertake it is becoming increasingly easy, as a trend in destination management development has been around the development of outdoor adventure experience hubs.

The number of walks and locations reported is shown in the table below, noting COVID-19 may well have affected people’s likelihood to walk overseas in the next three years.

TABLE 57: QUANTITY AND LOCATION OF MULTI-DAY WALK ACTIVITY

Undertaken in the Undertaken % Planned in the Planned % last 5 years next 3 years

Australia 1,174 50.2 1,901 60.1%

New Zealand 378 16.2 522 16.5%

International 258 11 227 7.2%

Base camp Aus 529 22.6 513 16.2% and overseas

Total 2,339 100 3,163 100

Source: Myriad Research, 2020 Of all walks done in Australia, 16.9% were undertaken as a guided or supported walk, while 22.5% of NZ walks were done this way, and 52.7% of overseas walks. A closer analysis showed more than a third of walkers (per walk) had undertaken the following walks using guided or supported options: Larapinta; Heysen; Great Ocean Road Walk; Seven Peaks and Cape to Cape, WA; and Bay of Fires. The Kangaroo Island Wilderness Trail was almost at one-third. Larapinta was highest, with 57% having walked supported or guided. In contrast, the Three Capes Track had 14.7%, and the Overland Track 14.4%.

This data is indicative only, due to low numbers. For instance, personal discussions (pre-fires) with the Kangaroo Island Wilderness Trail manager noted that having a number of CTOs (not part of Great Walks of Australia) has been highly beneficial, as they have undertaken the marketing and this has made a significant difference to the level of bookings on the track. In 2019, about 50% of bookings were via a mixture of different CTOs, and 50% were direct via the national parks (Department of Environment and Water, SA) website. The trend showed direct bookings were falling, but increasing via CTOs.

The proportion of walkers seeking to pay for guided or supported walking can significantly alter job creation and local business growth (as well as have other impacts). Consideration of issues in this area has grown as a result of COVID-19, and many CTOs are rethinking what domestic visitors will pay for (what is perceived as needed, and what is appealing) in a nature-based walking experience. Parks entities are also reviewing this area closely and, as a general statement, the higher the level of core infrastructure built into a walk (huts, wayfinding, interpretation), the lower the need for guides.

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Relevant to this walk development: what else do we know? Across Australia, not all new walks will have sufficient points of difference, wow factors, or outstanding landscapes providing ‘wow’ imagery to make them an iconic walk. However, the list below gives examples of what can make them highly successful.

• As locations are building their walking reputation or building adventure hubs for walking, bike riding and paddling, then day or part-day walks, or a multi-day walk, can be part of an overall mix available. • Larger States are creating multi-day walks that are popular at a local and regional level for short breaks from capital cities, a 3-4 hour drive away, or close to regional airports. • Walks’ appeal can be elevated by other means, such as by bookending private high-end accommodation; a good example is at Scenic Rim near Brisbane. • Longer walks can be segmented, as most of the market growth is ‘softer’ walkers and 3-4 day lengths. For instance, the Grampians Peaks Trail at 160 km has been designed with ‘step on, step off’ options, and the Bibbulmun Track at 1000 km is similar. • Where walks are not remote or wilderness, diversity can be added, such as: o heritage accommodation o other outdoor activities o commercial accommodation choices, as at Great Ocean Road, Murramarang, Twelve Apostles and Surf Coast Walk link towns. • Walks can be aimed at specific market segments. For instance, the Light to Light coastal walk in NSW is likely to be pitched for soft walkers and entry level or first-time walkers. It is not a remote wilderness, but has significant access points that can be viewed positively, as these create a greater level of safety and flexibility around service options.

Virtually every State and Territory is exploring the development, improvement, or extension of a multi-day walk. Some examples in south-eastern Australia are:

• Victoria • Coastal Wilderness Walk – 120 km from Marlo to Mallacoota • Great South West Walk – 250 km loop from Portland to Nelson • Mornington Peninsula walk – 100 km • Australian Alps Walking track – cross border >600 km • Surf Coast Walk – 44 km linking towns • Twelve Apostles Track – Princetown to Timboon • Sea to Summit (East Gippsland) – 120 km (bushfire affected) • Wilsons Promontory Circuit • NSW • Light to Light (bushfire affected) • Murramarang (bushfire affected) • Australian Alps Walking track – cross border > 600km

Thoughts about commercial tourism operators The Tasmanian Government has actively pursued the PWS-developed and managed walks in the last 15 years or so. The management approach of the PWS directly affects the capacity and style of walking focused-CTOs able to use a track and package and market to their target market.

Generally, the preference by all types of CTOs (such as Great Walks of Australia, International Tour Operators, Aus-wide adventure, walking operators and local CTOs) is for the PWS to provide a core offer

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Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study for walkers, allowing CTOs to add value and clear points of difference at competitive prices above this. The more services and facilities the PWS provides, the less possible it becomes for local businesses to deliver add-ons.

Multiple CTOs enable delivery of a greater variety of services, and sometimes access to extensive international walking consumer databases, which can broaden the walk’s appeal in a competitive market.

CTOs can be categorised in several ways, for instance:

• those with clear target markets, such as: o women who walk o tailor-made products for small high-end groups o track runners o Aboriginal interpretation tours o bird watching • those offering a suite of walk opportunities with different levels of service • international, national and local companies • by departure systems: o set departure time (tours) o anytime you want to go (personalised support) • those offering the best walk sections as part of wider tours (these may still be multi-day walking tours, but not A to B) • those picking up on the growth in walking and, as walks become iconic, they add a day to their wider, ‘must-do’ attractions of the place tours • clubs – bushwalking clubs, outdoor education, scouts, gear shop walking tours etc.

Multiple CTO use of a track can be very complex and adds issues and potential problems. Different solutions exist to gain some benefits. For instance, CTOs can be given permission to use a section of a track only. A partial day walk that is a ‘taster’ of the larger multi-day walk can be a feature in its own right to:

• grow the use by wider tour groups • add a new ‘must-do’ product, helping stimulate the local visitor economy by increasing the length of stay of non-multi-day walkers • enable people to ‘taste’ the walk, come back for the multi-day walk, and spread the word to potential new walkers.

Variations within target markets, visitor perceptions and trends As the size of the walker market grows, differentiation within the market becomes more visible. The basics of retail and consumer purchasing also apply to the walking market, such as who is planning and booking, and the needs and preferences of the whole travel party. Marketing that features unique selling points will help walkers choose the right walk for them. Some ways of viewing multi-day walk consumers are:

• soft to hard core (experience and amount of physical challenge and personal preparation required to undertake a walk); and repeat behaviour analysis: o walkers who like to do the same sort of walk in a new place (we see this with Three Capes Track survey responses)

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o walkers growing their ability and levels of confidence and moving to harder walks (mentally or physically) o walkers who are less able over time and choosing to do an easier or supported walk within their current capacity o walkers in a social or family group, where the walk may be based on the lowest ability or preference of the walking party (this may be parents taking kids, multi-generational families, or varied sets of friends).

Social connection and group facilities can be as important as walk attributes.

• Walking consumers will have varying needs around the track itself, or the service and accommodation (for example, track runners, bird watchers and people seeking reflective time to sketch, write or do yoga). • Interstate and overseas walkers generally have higher needs and expectations than locals. For example, they may encounter flight restrictions on cooking gas cannisters or on the weight of gear on small planes, and they may not wish to hire a car, only to leave it in a car park. • The popularity of overseas walks that are culturally themed and not necessarily wilderness based (such as Camino Way, Inca route, Cinque Terre) is potentially widening the Australian product market. This is already seen with walks that have an Aboriginal focus, and the development of town-to-town walks. • Technology is continually improving gear, and also adding an element of ‘geek/brag-ability’. For instance, outdoor gear shops may offer member walking trips to promote the sale or hire of gear. Some create partnerships with walking companies to provide hire of the latest gear, technology and options to walkers. Technology may also be used in an interpretive sense to add appealing but personally tailored elements, such as apps that show stars for the time and day you are at a site. The ability to be comfortable in a greater range of weather is altering. • Built infrastructure along the path can add or alter highlights and people’s capacity to do a walk. This applies not only to roofed accommodation, but to viewing platforms, waterfall access, and challenging sections of walks, such as sheer drops and short rock climbs. • The value-add around contemporary issues in sustainability and a light eco-footprint can be built into every layer of development and operation, including storytelling. • Seasonality is becoming better used and can attract different walker groups at different times.

Summary Some of the many discussion points highlighted above are summarised here.

• The impact of a multi-day walk out of Queenstown, versus further development of the area to become an outdoor adventure experience hub, will be different. The Myriad study showed that four of the six most frequently done walks in the last five years were from a base. It is possible to build the destination, rather than just a new product within the destination. • Guided or supported walks (generally) create more jobs. Most Tasmanian walks are done with low levels of add-on support. Yet, walks with add-on support are popular overseas and interstate: the Myriad survey noted six walks had more than one-third of respondents stating they undertook the walk with additional support. In Tasmania, both the Three Capes Track and Overland Track walks already have a high base level of support, so many walkers may not perceive the need for further add-on support. • Supply of walks across Australia is continuing to increase. Therefore, competitive positioning will be critical, rather than a ‘build and they will come’ approach.

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• Long-term outcomes for regional growth and job creation in the walking sector vary substantively. Perceptions of outcomes also appear to vary. For instance, guides may be based locally, or live elsewhere in Tasmania and travel to work; PWS jobs are not seen as the same as local small business or commercial sector jobs; the marketing capacity of different-size companies varies; and allied job growth (such as in walker transport) can be delivered in ways that support other growth, or be sector focused. • Opportunities for building Lake Margaret for continued day use and short walks need to be considered. • The off-season use of huts could be developed (such as artist and writer retreats). • Small group bookings are a potentially strong market, reflecting free independent travellers’ interest in social reconnection, family and friend groups, and these are needed by CTOs.

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13.4 Next Iconic Walk visitor experience statements

The following draft Visitor Experience Statements for the Next Iconic Walk have been developed by consultant David Inches, of Inspired by Marketing, and the PWS. They have been developed to provide insights into the experiences that visitors can expect from visiting the Next Iconic Walk. A number of visitor statements have been developed for:

• Option 1: A three-day, two-night through walk • Option 2: A two-three day, one-two night return walk • The benchmark: A number of part to full-day walks.

All statements have been prepared in a self-reflective, first person voice.

Please note, the statements are drafts. The aim, currently, is to describe possible visitor experiences, that is describe the key walk features, for discussion and to agree on these, rather than debate the specific language and writing style, which in the end will be more refined and shorter.

Option 1: three-day, two-night through walk (Anthony Road to Lake Margaret Power Station)

Last week I returned from an epic three-day, two-night walk through Tasmania’s remote and wild West Coast wilderness. Here is my story.

I’d heard from friends that Tasmania’s West Coast is a landscape like no other – remote, wild and rugged, often inaccessible to everyday travellers until now. They were boasting of their epic walking adventure across one of the largest temperate natural areas in the southern hemisphere. You could see how deep their connection with country had become by taking the time and effort to traverse this untamed landscape. They talked of the significance of the area for the Tasmanian Aboriginal people who have had an ongoing connection to the area, for at least 35,000 years, the centuries of mining and forestry activity, and hydro engineering projects. I had only recently completed the Three Capes Track, my first entry into multi-day walks, and was intrigued. I wasn’t ready for the Overland Track yet, but I wanted to challenge myself a little more and take the next step as a newly crowned walker. I started online to research my options.

Through my research, the West Coast of Tasmania presented as quite remote and wild, with just a few fishing and mining townships to base myself from. The region has plenty to offer, and looked to be evolving into a serious adventure hub. While the walk was my primary focus, the idea of climbing the towering Henty Dunes and beachcombing on Ocean Beach were also must dos. I also liked the idea of relaxing on a Gordon River cruise or the West Coast Wilderness Railway to reward myself after the walk.

I was excited to see the multi-day walk located in a spectacular part of the West Coast region named the Tyndall Range, which lies on the edge of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, between Queenstown and Tullah. The Tyndalls have only recently been opened to track walking and offer walks through a sub‐alpine environment dominated by lakes, mountains, forest and open plains. It quickly became clear from reading online reviews that walking the West Coast would be a different commitment to South and East Coast walks in Tasmania, and in many cases Australia. It required a commitment to planning and preparation, as much as physical training for the walk itself. The West Coast is notorious for its weather, from heavy mist and swirling rain, to periods of vibrant blue skies and

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Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study sunshine. I would be exposed to nature and all its elements, and very likely to experience all four seasons in one day! This sounded like the adventure I was looking for.

The walk operates six months during spring, summer and autumn, and not having to carry tents, sleeping mats and cooking equipment immediately made the walk look achievable. I did note there is a camping option (which was cheaper), but that wasn’t for me. Booking online was easy, with a detailed information pack and checklist supplied on confirmation to help me prepare. There were two roofed accommodation standards, bunk and single/twin share, and I chose the bunks. I also noticed gear for hire and opted to pre-order some supplies and equipment, instead of flying down from Melbourne with the full kit. There are six of us walking to celebrate a friend’s 50th birthday and we have been training for months. It’s on.

While the drive from Hobart to Queenstown is 3.5 hours, we made a day of it with short walks along the way at Mt Field and Nelson Falls. We overnighted in the old mining hub of Queenstown, where the walk check-in/out office is located. Walk check-in was easy, friendly and informative. Our gear was checked, and we were briefed on what to expect in the wilderness. The only way to the track head is by bus. Bus transfers from Queenstown to the start of the walk, and return, were included in the walk fee and allowed us to concentrate on the incredible glaciated landscape starting to reveal itself as our bus climbed to our walk start.

Day 1 Day one was a moderate Grade 3, 10 km and 3.5 hour walk leading to stunning Lake Huntley, located in the northern Tyndall Range. We were the lucky few to see this place, as there is no other way to get here. We walked through the rugged West Coast mountain scenery and alpine vegetation to some of the highest cliffs in Australia. We started walking along Lake Plimsoll’s shore, then Glacier Valley, before heading south-east to the Lake Huntley Cabin, our retreat for the night – in the middle of nowhere. The cliffs dropped 300 metres into Lake Huntley, and the Cabin was perfectly positioned to capture this remarkable natural landscape with commanding views of the lake and towering cliffs.

The walking track is as good as it gets for a remote walking adventure. The track is clear of vegetation, obvious, and well‐marked. The track may be wet after rain, but will attract little or no mud. Boardwalks and bridges cross rivers and wet ground, and steep sections of the track were stepped. We had enough walking space on the 75 cm wide track. We felt quite spoiled by a finished hardened surface constructed from a range of materials including gravel, rock, wood, and/or reinforced plastic grating.

The first few kilometres offered a gentle start to our adventure while tracing the curves of Lake Plimsoll in this increasingly natural landscape. We began to allow our minds to free up.

As we departed Lake Plimsoll, the climb begins as we traversed the open plains into Glacier Valley. I found myself becoming quite poetic as I stopped to describe the landscape in my trip log “Ascending up to jaw-dropping viewpoints of Glacier Valley and meandering through clumps of buttongrass and bearded trees, where cascades gurgle gently between the undergrowth and a thick layer of spongey moss blankets the forest floor”.

With each day’s walk-time relatively short, we regularly came across unique and intriguing reflection and refuge shelters. Each pod was very different, taking a unique form and design in keeping with the surrounding environment. These pods were clearly designed to allow walkers, regardless of the weather, to stop, sit and engage at a deep and meaningful level with the landscape, to be intrigued by stories, characters and unique formations. Each shelter could comfortably fit five to six walkers, and became a point of great anticipation along the track, waiting to see what the next shelter would offer.

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Through the day we climbed 510 m to the peak at 900 m, with 360-degree views across the Tyndall Range and views to Lake Rolleston. This was also the moment we captured our first glimpse of Lake Huntley, below, our home for the night.

The lower we descended, the more impressive the glacial cliffs that towered over Lake Huntley became. Each downward step took us closer to the completion of day one, and the sense of achievement and appreciation for what we had accomplished began to feel very real. My mind started to wander towards the comforts that awaited me. Those simple things in life we may take for granted in a city, now seemed so enticing and indulgent. As I arrived, I couldn’t help but switch my attention between the might and power of the cliffs surrounding the lake, and the warm glow of the accommodation and place of refuge in this harsh landscape.

There is a maximum of 30 walkers allowed at Lake Huntley Cabin, which made me feel gratitude and appreciation, very aware just how privileged I was to be here with my fellow walker colleagues. A feeling of collective achievement and comradery filled the air as I entered the cabin. We had made it!

It’s now time to ease the pack off the shoulders, feeling light as a feather as my back thanked me for the relief. Now it’s my feet’s turn as I literally hang my boots up for the day and ease into a fresh pair of thick socks. I gazed over and noticed a comfortable place to sit, overlooking the cliffs of Lake Huntley, but first I know there is one more task before that place is mine. I hang up my wet gear in the large drying room, which feels like a sauna as I entered. I wasn’t the only one who didn't want to leave. I finished unpacking at my bunk, rolled out my sleeping bag, fluffed up my pillow, sharing a slight smile at the thought of the night’s rest ahead. Finally the work is done, that restful place is mine. As I sat back and watched the weather roll in over the alpine range, I begin to reflect on our day’s adventure, the highlights, and moments big and small that are etched in my memory. I looked around to take in the shelter, which is clearly designed with walkers in mind. People buzz about in the communal kitchen, admiring the planning. Some people have gone to town with their meals and wine choices. I had taken an easy option, a pre-order packaged ‘hearty‘ food. My friends joke that I am in danger of putting on weight, rather than taking it off, as we walk, but everyone seems keen to help me eat my track mix of organic nuts and chocolate. The cabin has a ski village feel with rich timbers, the glow of pellet fires, and people chatting and relaxing in a colourful collection of outdoor adventure clothes and one-of-a-kind beanies. After a simple dinner (that has never tasted so good), I wrapped my hands around a hot chocolate, others a well-earned glass of red wine, feeling pretty good about ourselves and our place in the world.

During the night the wind batters the cabin exterior and the rain thunders down. I felt safe and comforted in my sleeping bag as I appreciated the isolation of the location.

Day 2 Next morning, we woke early and rested, both excited and curious about today’s adventure. Over breakfast we scanned the skies and planned our perfect departure time to capture the best window of weather. But first we were all up for a kayak on Lake Huntley. Paddling under the towering cliffs above was just as mind-blowing as knowing the crater lake plunged deep below. After collecting our things, we hoisted our pack onto our backs and slid our feet back into our dry boots. Camera in hand, ready for action. We are rugged up and it’s time to walk.

Something feels different today. The pack sits well on my back and my feet mould into my shoes. Today we’re connecting with other walkers through nods and short chats along the track. Sometimes we just sat together in silence as we appreciated being in such a remote and unique wilderness. We started to awake to the reality that the slower we walk, the more beauty we see. While we couldn’t miss the

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Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study dramatic vistas and peaks of Tasmania’s western wilderness, we started to look more closely at our feet to see the rocky debris of past glaciers and hardy plants filling the voids between.

The day was stunning, and everyone was really quiet. Without the wind whistling we couldn’t but help pay close attention and soak up the silence of this truly remote landscape. There are no roaring seas here, and the mountain tops on a still day offer a peace and quiet we have never experienced in our daily world of commerce and kids.

While yesterday we walked in the confines of our raincoat hoods, today we feel blessed to see distant Farquhar Lookout and Mt Sedgwick, our visual markers for the day. There is a scattering of glacial lakes across the plateau, and as soon as one disappears from our view, another appears in the distance. We note the weather rolling in from the west, the Roaring 40s they call it, but luckily we are close enough to our cabin to escape the building storm – until we were not. I’ve never seen weather change like that. Within 20 minutes we were hunting for raincoats and pack covers as the might of the western front smashed us like a solid wall of wind and rain.

Our cabin tonight is perched beneath Mt Geikie and we can only see a dim light in the darkening landscape – we’re keen to get there. The path is quite easy despite the rain, but we still have a challenging, short zigzag track to climb to the front door.

We were amazed at the thoughtful cabins’ design and placement – clever in their simplicity, yet highly functional in terms of temperatures, views and use of space. We could see they were built with care and craftsmanship. It was a special moment meeting the rangers who called the cabins home. They offered advice on the weather and what to look for around the cabins and during our walk tomorrow. They even had a few good tips on making the most from our freeze-dried Moroccan lamb curry.

The cabin interpretation is first class and offered a far deeper layer of understanding and appreciation to our journey.

Day 3

A few limbered up for the final day’s walk with early yoga on mats a few hundred metres from the cabin, where the silence and views transform the mind and body as much as the activity. Day three was as promised, delivering an ever-changing alpine day as we captured glimpses of sunshine across the lakes through the changing misty skies.

Lake Margaret and its early 20th century power station is our destination and we have mixed emotions. We are just getting into the rhythm of nature and walking, feeling the physical and emotional benefits. My boots feel like a part of my feet now and I can’t imagine walking in my work shoes. It's a gentle walk and we invest time to pause and take in the delicate detail of this ancient place. We have read about the Lake Margaret pipeline made from King Billy pine, the world’s slowest growing timber and now protected from logging.

I’m nearly as exhausted from taking pictures as I am from walking. It’s not just new mountain, cliffs and lakes, but the same lake can change its colour and mood with every passing cloud or raindrop. I’m also very aware how privileged I am to be here and how few have walked this track before me. I just roll with it and can’t wait to sort through my image library on return.

We’ve connected with the pipeline that carried water from Lake Margaret to the old power station. We have uncovered many hidden treasures in the winding copper-coloured hills around Queenstown on Tasmania’s rugged West Coast, but few of them carry the same history and mystique as the Lake Margaret Power Station. Built as two separate but connected power stations, starting in 1911, Lake

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Margaret was the springboard for the energy, mining and maritime industries that made the West Coast a bustling and thriving social centre for much of the 20th century. The station and village are both also listed on the Tasmanian Heritage Register, and interpretation gave us an even richer insight into the people who created the village and power station. We heard of their lifestyles, challenges, resilience and charms – including the women and children who travelled by railcar to Queenstown for school, shopping and socialising; the workers who made badminton shuttlecocks from chicken feathers for the local tournaments; and the 200 Maltese workers who laboured on the scheme and power station, while living in tent cities that they named after their homeland.

As we explored the Lake Margaret village, the back slapping began as we know it’s out last moment in what has been a journey into some of the world’s most remote, unpredictable and beautiful wilderness.

We unloaded our packs and jumped into the shuttle transfer for the drive to Queenstown for a cold beer and a sizzling steak by the open fire. John met his family and stayed to explore the Gordon River and had a paddle near Tullah, while I stayed in Queenstown with the rest of my group to join the Wilderness Railway the next day.

While we only walked for three days, the planning and training started three months before. On reflection, we’re all feeling pretty good about ourselves, and our bond together has never been stronger. We’re already talking about the Overland Track, bring it on, and we may just extend and come back to the West Coast to do a few of the other walks we heard about.

Option 2: two-day, one-night return walk (described as a three-day, two-night experience to test ideas)

Last week I returned from an epic base camp style walk into Tasmania’s remote and wild West Coast wilderness. Here is my story.

I’d heard from friends that Tasmania’s West Coast is a landscape like no other – remote, wild and rugged, often inaccessible to everyday travellers until now. They were boasting of their epic walking adventure across one of the largest temperate natural areas in the southern hemisphere. You could see how deep their connection with country had become by taking the time and effort to traverse this untamed landscape. They talked of the significance of the area for the Tasmanian Aboriginal people who have had an ongoing connection to the area, for at least 35,000 years, the centuries of mining and forestry activity, and hydro engineering projects. I had only recently completed the Three Capes Track, my first entry into multi-day walks, and was intrigued. I wasn’t ready for the Overland Track yet, but I wanted to challenge myself a little more and take the next step as a newly crowned walker. I started online to research my options.

Through my research, the West Coast of Tasmania presented as quite remote and wild, with just a few fishing and mining townships to base myself from. The region has plenty to offer, and looked to be evolving into a serious adventure hub. While the walk was my primary focus, the idea of climbing the towering Henty Dunes and beachcombing on Ocean Beach were also a must do. I also liked the idea of relaxing on a Gordon River cruise or the West Coast Wilderness Railway to reward myself after the walk.

I was excited to see the overnight, base camp style walk located in a spectacular part of the West Coast region named the Tyndall Range, which lies on the edge of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, between Queenstown and Tullah. The Tyndalls have only recently been opened to track walking

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Tasmania’s Next Iconic Walk Feasibility Study and offer walks through a sub‐alpine environment dominated by lakes, mountains, forest and open plains. It quickly became clear from reading online reviews that walking the West Coast would be a different commitment to South and East Coast walks in Tasmania, and in many cases Australia. It required a commitment to planning and preparation, as much as physical training for the walk itself. The West Coast is notorious for its weather, from heavy mist and swirling rain, to periods of vibrant blue skies and sunshine. I would be exposed to nature and all its elements, and very likely to experience all four seasons in one day! This sounded like the adventure I was looking for.

The walk operates six months during spring, summer and autumn, and not having to carry tents, sleeping mats and cooking equipment immediately made the walk look achievable. I did note there is a camping option (which was cheaper), but that wasn’t for me. Booking online was easy, with a detailed information pack and checklist supplied on confirmation to help me prepare. There were two roofed accommodation standards, bunk and single/twin share, and I chose the bunks. I also noticed gear for hire and opted to pre-order some supplies and equipment, instead of flying down from Melbourne with the full kit. There are six of us walking to celebrate a friend’s 50th birthday and we have been training for months. It’s on.

While the drive from Hobart to Queenstown is 3.5 hours, we made a day of it with short walks along the way at Mt Field and Nelson Falls. We overnighted in the old mining hub of Queenstown, where the walk check in/out office is located. Walk check-in was easy, friendly and informative. Our gear was checked and we were briefed on what to expect in the wilderness. The only way to the track head is by bus. Bus transfers from Queenstown to the start of the walk, and return, were included in the walk fee and allowed us to concentrate on the incredible glaciated landscape starting to reveal itself as our bus climbed to our walk start.

Day 1 Day one was a moderate Grade 3, 10 km and 3.5 hour walk leading to stunning Lake Huntley, located in the northern Tyndall Range. We were the lucky few to see this place, as there is no other way to get here. We walked through the rugged West Coast mountain scenery and alpine vegetation to some of the highest cliffs in Australia. We started walking along Lake Plimsoll’s shore, then Glacier Valley, before heading south-east to the Lake Huntley Cabin, our retreat for the night – in the middle of nowhere. The cliffs dropped 300 metres into Lake Huntley and the cabin was perfectly positioned to capture this remarkable natural landscape with commanding views of the lake and towering cliffs.

The walking track is as good as it gets for a remote walking adventure. The track is clear of vegetation, obvious and well‐marked. The track may be wet after rain, but will attract little or no mud. Boardwalks and bridges cross rivers and wet ground, and steep sections of the track were stepped. We had enough walking space on the 75 cm wide track. We felt quite spoiled, with a finished hardened surface constructed from a range of materials including gravel, rock, wood, and/or reinforced plastic grating.

The first few kilometres offered a gentle start to our adventure while tracing the curves of Lake Plimsoll in this increasingly natural landscape. We began to allow our minds to free up.

As we departed Lake Plimsoll, the climb begins as we traversed the open plains into Glacier Valley. I found myself becoming quite poetic as I stopped to describe the landscape in my trip log “Ascending up to jaw-dropping viewpoints of Glacier Valley and meandering through clumps of buttongrass and bearded trees, where cascades gurgle gently between the undergrowth and a thick layer of spongey moss blankets the forest floor”.

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With each day’s walk-time relatively short, we regularly came across unique and intriguing reflection and refuge shelters. Each pod was very different, taking a unique form and design in keeping with the surrounding environment. These pods were clearly designed to allow walkers, regardless of the weather, to stop, sit, and engage at a deep and meaningful level with the landscape, to be intrigued by stories, characters and unique formations. Each shelter could comfortably fit five to six walkers and became a point of great anticipation along the track, waiting to see what the next shelter would offer.

Through the day we climbed 510 m to the peak at 900 m, with 360-degree views across the Tyndall Range and views to Lake Rolleston. This was also the moment we captured our first glimpse of Lake Huntley, below, our home for the night.

The lower we descended, the more impressive the glacial cliffs that towered over Lake Huntley became. Each downward step took us closer to the completion of day one, and the sense of achievement and appreciation for what we had accomplished began to feel very real. My mind started to wander towards the comforts that awaited me. Those simple things in life we may take for granted in a city, now seemed so enticing and indulgent. As I arrived, I couldn’t help but switch my attention between the might and power of the cliffs surrounding the lake, and the warm glow of the accommodation and place of refuge in this harsh landscape.

There is a maximum of 30 walkers allowed at Lake Huntley Cabin, which made me feel gratitude and appreciation, very aware just how privileged I was to be here with my fellow walker colleagues. A feeling of collective achievement and comradery filled the air as I entered the cabin. We had made it!

It’s now time to ease the pack off the shoulders, feeling light as a feather as my back thanked me for the relief. Now it’s my feet’s turn as I literally hang my boots up for the day and ease into a fresh pair of thick socks. I gazed over and noticed a comfortable place to sit, overlooking the cliffs of Lake Huntley, but first I know there is one more task before that place is mine. I hang up my wet gear in the large drying room, which feels like a sauna as I entered. I wasn’t the only one who didn't want to leave. I finished unpacking at my bunk, rolled out my sleeping bag, fluffed up my pillow, sharing a slight smile at the thought of the night’s rest ahead. Finally the work is done, that restful place is mine. As I sat back and watched the weather roll in over the alpine range, I begin to reflect on our day’s adventure, the highlights, and moments big and small that are etched in my memory. I looked around to take in the shelter, which is clearly designed with walkers in mind. People buzz about in the communal kitchen, admiring the planning. Some people have gone to town with their meals and wine choices. I had taken an easy option, a pre-order packaged ‘hearty‘ food. My friends joke that I am in danger of putting on weight, rather than taking it off, as we walk, but everyone seems keen to help me eat my track mix of organic nuts and chocolate. The cabin has a ski village feel with rich timbers, the glow of pellet fires, and people chatting and relaxing in a colourful collection of outdoor adventure clothes and one-of-a-kind beanies. After a simple dinner (that has never tasted so good), I wrapped my hands around a hot chocolate, others a well-earned glass of red wine, feeling pretty good about ourselves and our place in the world.

During the night the wind batters the cabin exterior and the rain thunders down. I felt safe and comforted in my sleeping bag as I appreciated the isolation of the location.

Day 2 Next morning, we woke early and rested, both excited and curious about what this day’s adventure will hold. We could have stayed one night, but we were glad we had booked another day here. Over breakfast we scanned the skies and planned our day of adventure on and around Lake Huntley.

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First up was a kayak on Lake Huntley. Paddling under the towering cliffs above was just as mind-blowing as knowing the crater lake plunged deep below the surface.

After our morning paddle it was time to shoulder our much lighter day pack and slide our feet back into our dry boots. Camera in hand, ready for action, we began walking. After about an hour we were 160 m above the lake, its shape and size were even more obvious, and if that wasn’t enough, turning to the south another world is revealed. From the lookout, as it was a clear day, the whole of the Tyndall Range was visible.

Today we’re connecting with other walkers through nods and short chats along the track. Sometimes we just sat together in silence as we appreciated being in such a remote and unique wilderness. We started to awake to the reality that the slower we walk, the more beauty we see. While we couldn’t miss the dramatic vistas and peaks of Tasmania’s western wilderness, we started to look more closely at our feet to see the rocky debris of past glaciers and hardy plants filling the voids between.

The day was stunning, and everyone was really quiet. Without the wind whistling we couldn’t but help pay close attention and soak up the silence of this truly remote landscape. There are no roaring seas here, and the mountain tops on a still day offer a peace and quiet we have never experienced in our daily world of commerce and kids.

While yesterday we walked in the confines of our raincoat hoods, today we feel blessed to see distant Farquhar Lookout and Mt Sedgewick. We noted the weather rolling in from the west, the Roaring 40s they call it, but luckily we were close enough to our cabin to escape the building storm – until we were not. I’ve never seen weather change like that. Within 20 minutes we were hunting for raincoats and pack covers as the might of the western front smashed us like a solid wall of wind and rain.

Returning to the cabin around lunchtime left us ample time to kick back and relax. Some people played Monopoly, others Scrabble or Chess, but I couldn't resist a good book as I watched the storms roll across Lake Huntley. It’s not often we get time to truly sit back without the distractions of technology. Looking over the empty yet dramatic landscape was deeply soothing. I had nowhere to be, nobody to meet, and no emails to answer. The hours before dinner felt like an eternity, and I felt free and strong, yet content and calm.

Dinner was a different game tonight as we had all made the effort to carry in quite a feast (in walking terms anyway). I was responsible for the green Thai chicken curry which had thawed nicely during the day. Others had carried in entrees, desserts, and wines to make a night to remember. We stayed up late, getting into cards and talking with other walkers. For some it was their first night and we shared our day’s adventures; some still had an extra night to go, of which we were very jealous.

Day 3 Next morning a ranger took us on a short guided walk around part of Lake Huntley’s shore, sharing stories of country and specifics of the ecosystems that surrounded us. You could see how appreciative the rangers were to be stationed in this isolated location. Most of our questions were about their life living in the middle of nowhere, and they were more than happy to share.

We packed our gear and cleaned our rooms, ready for the walk back into civilisation. While we traversed the same track heading back, it was a completely different experience. Firstly, the aspect was different looking north, but we were different walkers too. Walking in was more about the challenge and the destination, making it. Walking out was about soaking up every last second of the West Coast wilderness, and it took us twice the time purely because of the pace we chose.

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On return to Anthony Road we unloaded our packs and jumped into the shuttle transfer for the drive to Queenstown for a cold beer and a sizzling steak by the open fire. John met his family and stayed to have a paddle near Tullah, while I stayed in Queenstown with the rest of my group to join a Gordon River cruise before returning to Hobart.

While we only walked for three days, the planning and training started three months before. On reflection, we’re all feeling pretty good about ourselves, and our bond together has never been stronger. We’re already talking about the Overland Track, bring it on, and we may just extend and come back over to the West Coast to do a few of the other walks we heard about.

The benchmark: West Coast part and full-day walks

Last week I returned from a walking holiday based from Queenstown in Tasmania’s remote and wild West Coast wilderness. Here is my story.

I’d heard from friends that Tasmania’s West Coast is a landscape like no other – remote, wild and rugged, often inaccessible for everyday travellers until now. They were boasting of their epic walking adventures into one of the largest temperate natural areas in the southern hemisphere. Queenstown is becoming a real adventure hub, and a series of epic day walks have been opened through truly remote environments. You could see how deep their connection with country had become by taking the time and effort to traverse this untamed landscape. I’ve been getting into longer day walks over the last few years, and walked my first multi-night last year. The idea of a village base and unpacking once to explore the West Coast region sounded appealing. I started online to research my options.

Through my research, the West Coast of Tasmania presented as quite remote and wild, with just a few fishing and mining townships to base myself from. While walking was my primary focus, the idea of climbing the towering Henty Dunes and beachcombing on Ocean Beach were also must dos. I also liked the idea of relaxing on a Gordon River cruise or the West Coast Wilderness Railway to reward myself.

A few easy walks first caught my eye, a half day into the old town of Pillinger along Bird River, and the impressive Montezuma Falls. A mate also talked about the tough but rewarding Mt Murchison walk, which is less publicised but apparently mind blowing with 360-degree views across the Range. I was excited to see the two most recently opened walks located in a spectacular part of the West Coast region named the Tyndall Range, which lies on the edge of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, between Queenstown and Tullah. The Tyndalls have only recently been opened to track walking, and offer walks through a sub‐alpine environment dominated by lakes, mountains, forest and open plains, with stories about the West Coast’s heritage. It became clear from reading online reviews that walking the West Coast would be a different commitment to South and East Coast walks in Tasmania, and in many cases Australia. It required a commitment to planning and preparation, as much as physical training for the walking. The West Coast is notorious for its weather, from heavy mist and swirling rain, to periods of vibrant blue skies and sunshine. But the great thing about so many walks and activities is the flexibility to walk when it suits our mood and energy, and the weather each day. This sounded like the adventure I was looking for, and it would be easy to convince my partner.

The walks are open all year, but more care and experience is advised during winter. There are many options to walk independently or to book and travel with a group on a tour from Queenstown. I also noticed gear for hire and opted to pre-order some supplies and equipment instead of flying down from Melbourne with the full kit.

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The day arrived; we were in Tassie ready to tour. From Hobart we turn west. While the drive from Hobart to Queenstown is 3.5-4 hours, we made a day of it with short walks along the way at Mt Field and Nelson Falls.

We chose to base ourselves in the old mining hub of Queenstown. The next day, over breakfast at the hotel, we met another couple also touring Tasmania; we had many shared interests, but our new group divided for the day. We were feeling energetic and wanted to go bush, and they wanted to explore the towns. We agreed to meet again at the end of the day to share stories. That is the thing about the West Coast, it offers many walks and activities. I had been excited to try two new part-day walks, and this is what I found.

The two new tracks were as good as it gets for more remote walking adventures. The tracks were clear of vegetation, obvious, and well‐marked. The tracks were wet after rain, but not muddy. Boardwalks and bridges crossed rivers and wet ground, and steep sections of the track were stepped. We enjoyed plenty of walking space as the tracks were 120 cm wide. We felt quite spoiled, with a finished hardened surface constructed from a range of materials including gravel, rock, wood, and/or reinforced plastic grating.

Newton Peak, Glacier Valley, Huntley Lookout part-full day walks About 40 minutes from Queenstown and Tullah is a new grade 3 track that allows you to choose an adventure – how far to explore, and the challenge that suits you. The shortest lookout walk from the car park at Newton Peak is <1 hour (return), the longest 7 hours (return). We had prepared for the long walk, but were happy to be flexible.

The walk began with a short climb that was rewarded with views to a landscape few have visited. Glacier Valley was further along, and a hidden world shaped by geological forces from ice ages past. Above us, Huntley Peak beckoned. The 240 m climb was more challenging, and took 1.5 hours, but we were on top of the world. There were peaks and lakes all around us. The weather was changeable and moody, and great for photography. It took 2.5 hours from the car park to reach Huntley Lookout, but was so worth it. The cliffs dropped 300 metres into Lake Huntley, and the lookout was seriously impressive. They say that photos never really capture the moment, and they are right.

On the way back we took it slower. By then a misty rain had settled, hiding the peaks. We stopped regularly at unique and intriguing reflection and refuge shelters. Each pod was very different, taking a unique form and design in keeping with the surrounding environment. These pods were clearly designed to allow walkers, regardless of the weather, to stop, sit, and engage at a deep and meaningful level with the landscape, to be intrigued by stories, characters and unique formations. Each shelter could comfortably fit five to six walkers and became a point of great anticipation along the track, waiting to see what the next shelter would offer.

We didn’t mind the rain as we had warm dry accommodation with a shower back in town.

Lake Margaret day walk Today started in the 1900s Lake Margaret Power Station and village, just 20 minutes bus transfer from Queenstown.

We have uncovered many hidden treasures in the winding copper-coloured hills around Queenstown on Tasmania’s rugged West Coast, but few of them carry the same history and mystique as the Lake Margaret Power Station. Built as two separate but connected power stations, starting in 1911, Lake

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Margaret was the springboard for the energy, mining and maritime industries that made the West Coast a bustling and thriving social centre for much of the 20th century. The station and village are both also listed on the Tasmanian Heritage Register, and interpretation gave us an even richer insight into the people who created the village and power station. We heard of their lifestyles, challenges, resilience and charms – including the women and children who travelled by railcar to Queenstown for school, shopping and socialising; the workers who made badminton shuttlecocks from chicken feathers for the local tournaments; and the 200 Maltese workers who laboured on the scheme and power station, while living in tent cities that they named after their homeland.

Our walking destination was Lake Margaret, and on first glance it’s a little daunting. No gentle start today, as we head straight up. We zigzag our way up through the forest, leaving the village behind, until we gratefully reach the plateau and track to Lake Margaret.

We’ve connected with the pipeline that carried water from Lake Margaret to the old power station, made from King Billy pine, the world’s slowest growing timber and now protected from logging. We followed this pipe all the way to the lake. This part of the track was almost flat and relaxing. It rained on and off all day, but the surprise was our rain coats allowed us to muck about in the fountains of water escaping through the pipe’s timber planks. We felt like kids.

While I enjoyed the heritage stories and learning about how the electricity that will cook my pub meal tonight was generated, there was plenty of nature. As we walked along the pipe track, the southern peaks of the Tyndall Range and forested valley were hidden and revealed by the clouds and between rain showers.

We had chosen the guided tour, and the guide made the 3.5 hour, 8 km (return) walk come to life. It was easy at the end of the walk to unload our packs and jump straight into the shuttle bus to be transferred back to Queenstown for a cold beer and a sizzling steak by the open fire.

What I enjoyed about these walks was they featured the spectacular Tyndall Range. We saw different sides of it (literally), and layers of natural and human history. We had the flexibility to pick the level of challenge we like, while enjoying the comforts of civilisation.

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13.5 Track Option 1 map

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13.6 Track Option 2 map

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13.7 Benchmark track maps

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13.8 Part and full-day upgrade options

Purpose

Part and full-day walks are a development option for Tasmania’s West Coast. These are suggested locations. The inclusion of an option is not an endorsement, and the order is not an indication of priority.

Existing part-full day walk options

Mt Murchison Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Mt Murchison 2.7 km (5.4 km). 5 hours. AS 4, PWS T3. Hard. (Tullah) Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 718 m Track. Rainforest. Sub- Sensitive alpine Candace, 2020; TG, alpine/Alpine. Glacial vegetation. Regional 2021. cirque. Reserve.

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Montezuma Falls

Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Montezuma Falls 4 km (8 km). 3 hours. 2, AS 3, PWS T1. Easy/Moderate. (Rosebery) Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 100 m Track. 60 Great Short Walk. Forest. Redundant PWSa,2021; TG, Rainforest. tram line. Timber 2021. Waterfall. Production Zones.

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Bird River-Kelly Basin

Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Bird River-Kelly Basin 5.4 km (10.8 km). 3-4 hours. 3, AS 3, PWS T1 Moderate. (Queenstown) Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 100 m Kelly Basin Track. 60 Great Short Walk. Forest. 4WD track PWSb,2021; TG, Rainforest. European high cost. Redundant 2021. heritage. tram line. Historic site.

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Mt Farrell Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Mt Farrell (Tullah) LH 3.5 km (6 km) + 3-4 hours. AS 4, PWS T3. Moderate/Hard. MTF 1.1 km (2.2 km) Net elevation Facilities Attractions Environment References change 500 m Mt Farrell Forest. Sub-alpine. Forest. Sub-alpine. NWT, 2021; BA, (MTF)/Lake Herbert Lake and mountain Regional Reserve. 2021; TLL, 2018; TG, (LH) Tracks. views. 2021.

Image credit: https://www.natureloverswalks.com/tag/mt-farrell/

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Mt Read (Rosebery)

Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length (return)) Standard (AS), PWS

Mt Read (Rosebery) - - - -

Net elevation Facilities Attractions Environment References change

- Summit access via - Timber Production LISTMap, Internet. restricted road. Site Zone/Nature Reserve of communications (boundary) antenna.

Image credit: Lynnda Coffey (https://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=84147)

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Mt Dundas Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Mt Dundas (Zeehan) 5.4 km (10.8 km). 5 hours. AS 5, PWS T3. Hard. Net elevation Facilities Attractions Environment References change 883 m Track. Not broadly Forest. Sub- Chamberlain, 2020; promoted. alpine/Alpine. TG, 2021. Forest. Sub-alpine. Regional Reserve. Mountain views.

Images credit: Camberlain, 2020

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Mt Sedgwick Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Mt Sedgwick 4WD access + 1.3 5-6 hours. AS 6, PWS T4. Hard. (Queenstown) km (2.6 km) (from South). Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 368 m Route. Sub-alpine/Alpine. Restricted (road). Internet. Regional Reserve and Crown land.

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Mt Jukes Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Mt Jukes 7.0 km 4WD track - AS 5-6, PWS Route. Hard. (Queenstown) (walk) + 3.3 km (AS 6) (from South) Mt Jukes + North 2.0 km (AS 5). Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 969 m Route. Sub-alpine/Alpine. West Coast Regional TG, 2021. Reserve (south) and Timber Production (north).

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Donaghys Hill Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Donaghys Hill (Lyell 1.1 km (2.2 km). 0.6 hours. AS 2, PWS W2. Easy. Highway) Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 90 m Car park. Track. Forest. Mountain National Park, PWSc, 2021; TG and river valley TWWHA. 2021. views.

TWWHA – Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area.

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Horsetail Falls (Extension) Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Horsetail Falls 0.5 km (1.0 km) + 0.5 hours. AS 2, PWS W2; Easy. (Queenstown) Future extension 0.3 AS 5, PWS T4. km (0.6 km). Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 60 m, 0 m Car park. Track. Waterfall. Sub- Crown Land. PWSc, 2021; TG Extension (no track). alpine. 2021; WCVS, 2021.

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Huntley Lookout-Glacier Valley Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Huntley Lookout (HL) From Newton Peak 3 hours (GV), 5 AS 3, PWS T1. Moderate (GV)-Hard - Glacier Valley (GV) (Spicer Track) 4 km hours (HL). (HL). (Queenstown, Tullah) (GV) (8 km), 7.2 km (HL) (14.4 km). Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 120 m (GV), No track. Mountain cirque Sub-alpine/Alpine. Internal documents. 510 m (HL) (GV) + Mountain and Regional Reserve. lake views (GV).

Glacier Valley

Near Huntley Lookout

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Near Huntley Lookout

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Lake Margaret Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS Lake Margaret 4 km (8 km). 3 hours. AS 3, PWS T1. Hard. (Queenstown) Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 310 m Part track. Mountain and lake Sub-alpine. Hydro. Internal documents. views (GV). Hydro heritage.

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Mt Black Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length (return)) Standard (AS), PWS Mt Black (Rosebery) - - - - Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References 730 m (from No track. - Regional Reserve, Internet. Rosebery) Crown land and Timber Production.

Image credit: https://www.ourtasmania.com.au/northwest/rosebery.html

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Unnamed falls Name, location, Track length (walk Walk time (return) Grade, Australian Difficulty destination length) return Standard (AS), PWS 5 unnamed falls, 5 km - - - Heemskirk River (5 km west of Zeehan, Heemskirk Highway) Net elevation change Facilities Attractions Environment References No track. - Location proposal 29.

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14 REFERENCES

This reference list excludes many (some noted) Parks and Wildlife Service unpublished and internal working documents, and those documents noted in section 2.

ABC News (2016) Tourism numbers in Tasmania record another winter spike from festivals, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-18/tasmanian-tourism-numbers-spike-in-winter/7636854.

ABC News (2017) Winter downturn forcing Tasmanian west coast tourism closures https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-21/tasmanian-west-coast-tourism-downturn-fears/8635506

Australian Department of Environment and Energy (2019) Protecting World Heritage. Australian Government, https://www.environment.gov.au/heritage/about/world/management-australias-world- heritage-listed/managing-world-heritage-australia/protecting-world-heritage>

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