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Biocon Biologics 27 November 2020 Market snapshot Today’s top research idea Equities - India Close Chg .% CYTD.% Metals: Steel spreads at a multi-year high; Raise Sensex 44,260 1.0 7.3 coverage EBITDA estimates by 7-10% for FY21-22E Nifty-50 12,987 1.0 6.7 Nifty-M 100 19,196 0.9 12.2 Equities-Global Close Chg .% CYTD.% Indian steel spreads have risen ~25% in 3QFY21 and are at a three-year high. We S&P 500 3,630 0.0 12.3 expect spreads to stay strong on the back of a domestic demand recovery and Nasdaq 12,094 0.0 34.8 higher regional prices. Despite HRC prices rallying by INR4,000-5,000/t MoM in FTSE 100 6,363 -0.4 -15.6 Nov’20, domestic HRC prices are trading at par to the landed cost of imports DAX 13,287 0.0 0.3 from Korea (USD630/t), raising the possibility of further hikes in Dec’20. Hang Seng 10,701 1.4 -4.2 The improvement in EBITDA/t should be even higher on an improving sales mix Nikkei 225 26,537 0.9 12.2 (lower exports and higher value-added sales). We raise our coverage EBITDA Commodities Close Chg .% CYTD.% estimates by 3-12%/5-13% for FY21E/FY22E to factor in higher spreads. Brent (US$/Bbl) 47 -2.1 -29.0 JSP is our preferred pick in this sector followed by JSTL. Coupled with strong Gold ($/OZ) 1,816 0.5 19.7 margins, they are also better placed to deliver higher volume growth in the Cu (US$/MT) 7,387 1.4 20.1 medium term. JSP also has the lowest leverage in the peer growth with Almn (US$/MT) 1,959 0.4 10.0 supportive valuations. Currency Close Chg .% CYTD.% USD/INR 73.9 0.0 3.5 USD/EUR 1.2 0.0 6.2 Research covered USD/JPY 104.3 -0.2 -4.0 Cos/Sector Key Highlights YIELD (%) Close 1MChg CYTDchg 10 Yrs G-Sec 5.9 -0.01 -0.7 Metals Steel spreads at a multi-year high 10 Yrs AAA Corp 6.6 -0.01 -1.1 Oil & Gas Open access: The wait ends, but clarity awaited Flows (USD b) 26-Nov MTD CYTD Corner Office BIOCON BIOLOGICS – Takeaways from our conversation with the CFO FIIs 0.27 0.39 6.66 DIIs -0.46 -0.54 6.81 Laurus Labs Richcore acquisition - A step towards strategic diversification Volumes (INRb) 26-Nov MTD* CYTD* Automobiles Demand largely sustains post the festive season Cash 643 661 558 Mahindra & MM divests loss-making vehicle servicing business to TVS-AS for 2.76% F&O 72,575 29,119 18,417 Mahindra stake in it Note: *Average Chart of the Day: Metals (Steel spreads at a multi-year high) Indian steel spreads at multi-year highs (INR/t) Spreads- Flats Spreads - Longs 32,974 35,000 30,000 25,000 29,974 20,000 15,000 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 May-18 May-19 May-20 Source: MOFSL Research Team ([email protected]) Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. In the news today Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link 1 2 ECLGS 2.0 scheme: Govt FMCG industry sees signs of recovery in September quarter: extends credit guarantee Nielsen scheme to 27 sectors After an unprecedented decline of 19 per cent in the January-March The government on Thursday quarter, the FMCG industry has displayed signs of recovery in the said it has extended the September quarter with a year-on-year growth of 1.6 per cent, Emergency Credit Line according to market insight firm Nielsen. The growth witnessed in the Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) to fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector was also a reflection of the health sector and 26 other positivity witnessed in the overall macroeconomic scenario amid sectors identified by the Kamath opening up of the economy and easing of lockdown restrictions… Committee. The National Credit Guarantee Trustee Company Limited (NCGTC) has issued… 3 4 Ventures under Tata Oil regulator PNGRB Industries may be shifted to simplifies gas pipeline tariff other group companies Oil regulator PNGRB has The Tata Group is considering a 5 simplified the country's gas rejig of the business portfolio of pipeline tariff structure to make Tata Industries, best known for NPCI allows payment banks the fuel more affordable for incubating new ventures for the and fintechs to be distant users and to attract conglomerate. The plan, though in shareholders investment for building gas early stages, involves a possible Retail payments body National infrastructure. The Petroleum merger of its health services (Tata Payments Corporation of India and Natural Gas Regulatory Health app), e-commerce (Tata (NPCI) on Thursday said that it Board (PNGRB) has notified Cliq), ready-to-eat food (Tata Q) has completed private placement regulations for a 'unified' tariff and digital classroom content of 4.63% of its equity shares structure for over a dozen… (Tata ClassEdge) businesses… worth ₹81.64 crores, allowing small finance and payment banks, as well as fintechs to be shareholders in the organisation. 6 7 NPCI had made an offer for the Slight dip in e-comm sales DHFL promoter Wadhawan private placement to 131 Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regulated contribution with stores moves NCLT, urges tribunal to entities, of which 19 showed opening up: Croma reject Adani, Oaktree, interest and were allotted shares Tata-owned electronics and Piramal offers in NPCI… smartphone retail chain Croma Crisis-hit mortgage lender DHFL’s has seen decline in sales erstwhile promoter Kapil contribution from its e- Wadhawan has moved the commerce platform after more National Company Law Tribunal of its stores opened up, said in Mumbai against the Reserve chief marketing officer Ritesh Bank of India appointed Ghosal. Ghosal said its e- administrator and the committee commerce shopfront… of creditors (CoC) meant… 27 November 2020 2 Sector Update | 26 November 2020 Metals HRC-rebar prices at two- year highs (INR/t) Steel spreads at a multi-year high Domestic HRC Primary rebar Raise coverage EBITDA estimates by 7-10% for FY21-22E 50,000 47,000 Indian steel spreads have risen ~25% in 3QFY21 and are at a three-year high. We expect 45,000 44,000 spreads to stay strong on the back of a domestic demand recovery and higher regional prices. The improvement in EBITDA/t should be even higher on an improving sales mix 40,000 (lower exports and higher value-added sales). We raise our coverage EBITDA estimates by 35,000 3-12%/5-13% for FY21E/FY22E to factor in higher spreads. Steel prices in India have rallied by INR4,000-5,000/t (10-13%) MoM in Nov’20 – HRC 30,000 (hot-rolled coils) by ~10% to INR47,000/t and rebar by 13% to INR44,000/t. Despite these hikes, domestic HRC prices are trading at par to the landed cost of imports from Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-19 Jan-18 Jan-20 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Apr-20 Apr-19 Apr-18 Korea (USD630/t), raising the possibility of further hikes in Dec’20. Domestic hikes are being supported by higher regional prices, which in turn are being Indian steel spreads at multi-year driven by a sharp rise in Chinese domestic steel prices. China HRC/rebar prices are up highs (INR/t) 10%/11% in the last two months to USD622/599 per tonne. Spreads- Flats Contrary to rising steel prices, the raw material basket has been a mixed one. While Spreads - Longs iron ore prices are at a multi-year high, coking coal prices are at four-year low (due to 35,000 32,974 restrictions on Chinese steelmakers from buying Australian coking coal, causing a 30,000 29,974 supply glut). As a result, steel spreads (price – 1.7x iron ore – 0.7x coking coal) are at multi-year highs – ~INR33,000/t for HRC (flats) and ~INR30,000/t for rebar. Steel 25,000 players like TATA, SAIL and JSP with captive iron ore should benefit the most from 20,000 higher prices. JSP is our preferred pick in this sector followed by JSTL. Coupled with strong margins, 15,000 they are also better placed to deliver higher volume growth in the medium term. JSP also has the lowest leverage in the peer growth with supportive valuations. Jul-20 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jan-18 Jan-19 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-18 Domestic steel prices are at a two-year high Domestic HRC prices have increased by INR4,500/t in Nov’20 to INR47,000/t on a strong recovery in the demand for flat steel, backed by a demand recovery in end- use sectors like Auto, White Goods, etc. The price hikes have been well supported by higher regional steel prices. Domestic HRC prices are trading at par to the landed cost of imports from Korea. With monsoon subsiding and expected recovery in infra and construction demand after the festive season, rebar prices too have increased by INR5,000/t in Nov’20. Improved demand has supported absorption of price hikes India’s steel demand has seen a gradual recovery over the past few months and was down just 2% YoY in Oct’20.
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