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Saudi Arabia Economic Report

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Saudi Arabia Economic Report SAUDI ARABIA ECONOMIC REPORT JUNE 2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS A SHARP V-SHAPED MACRO RECOVERY OUTLOOK FOR THE KINGDOM Executive Summary 1 2020 very challenging year for the Kingdom The year 2020 has been a noticeably challenging year for Saudi Arabia amid Pandemic spillovers and low oil prices for most of the year. Real GDP growth is assumed to have reported its first contraction Introduction 2 in almost three years, registering -4.1% in 2020. It is yet worth mentioning that real non-oil GDP growth rebounded in the second half of 2020 and high-frequency indicators suggest the recovery Economic Conditions 4 has continued in 2021. The unemployment rate for Saudi nationals increased to 15.4% in the second quarter of 2020 before declining to 12.6% in the fourth quarter of the year. Real Sector 4 Noticeable current account deficit in 2020 likely to shift to a surplus in next two years Following the twin shocks of coronavirus pandemic and the lower oil prices amid the global downward demand since end of January 2020 urging the cut in oil production implied by the OPEC agreement, Saudi External Sector 6 Arabia witnessed in 2020 net deterioration in its external position. In fact, the current account balance of 2020 witnessed a deficit for US$ 19.6 billion, against a surplus of US$ 38.2 billion in 2019. It is worth noting that the Public Sector 7 current account is forecasted to shift back from a deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2020 to a surplus of 3-4% of GDP in the next two years as per the IMF, as oil and non-oil merchandise exports are expected to pick-up globally, accompanied by gradual resumption of religious tourism receipts and higher domestic capital spending. Financial Sector 8 Widening budget deficit during pandemic despite commitment to fiscal consolidation Concluding Remarks 14 Fiscal performance in Saudi Arabia took a blow from the Coronavirus crisis and lower global oil demand and prices over the year 2020. The budget balance dipped further into negative territory amid significant contractions in total revenues despite a series of initiatives introduced over the year, while expenditures increased mildly amid spending efficiency. The Saudi fiscal deficit widened from SR 132.6 billion (US$ 35.5 billion) in 2019 to SR 293.9 billion (US$ 78.4 billion) in 2020, and reached 11.3% of GDP in 2020, up from 4.5% in 2019. Looking forward, the VAT rate increase, an oil price rebound, the expiration of Coronavirus-related spending and the government’s continued efforts to improve spending efficiency and achieve fiscal discipline are expected to help narrowing the fiscal CONTACTS deficit in 2021. Within this context, the IMF projects the fiscal deficit to decline to 4.2% of GDP in 2021, lower than the budget forecast of 4.9%. Research Rising inflationary pressures following tripled VAT, FX reserves on the decline Marwan Barakat The first four months of the year 2021 were underpinned by rising inflationary pressures following a (961-1) 977409 tripled VAT starting July 2020, and further contractions in the Saudi Central Bank’s FX reserves amid [email protected] widening fiscal deficit, while key policy rates remained unchanged since March 2020 as the Saudi Central Bank continued to track US Federal Reserve monetary policy easing due to the peg. In details, consumer Salma Saad Baba prices in Saudi Arabia grew by 5.3% on average during the first four months of 2021 when compared to (961-1) 977346 the same period of the previous year, mainly reflecting tripled VAT to 15% starting July 2020. [email protected] Significant growth in banking activity, supported by buoyant lending growth Farah N. Nahlawi Saudi Arabia’s commercial banking sector remains on a solid footing. The sector has performed well (961-1) 959747 in the past few years, supported by the growth in net profit and growth in banking activity. Measured [email protected] by total assets of operating banks, banking activity grew by 13.2% in 2020 and by a further 3.5% in the first four months of the year 2021. The government’s initiatives to expand home ownership has Zeina M. Labban generated a surge in mortgage lending, supporting loan growth through a difficult 2020, with lending (961-1) 952426 growth reporting a high of 14.3% in 2020 and a further 6.7% in the first four months of 2021. The [email protected] government’s ambitious economic diversification plans will create significant lending opportunities to new sectors over the coming years, albeit these will take some time to materialize. On the negative Michele Sakha side, non-performing loans are expected to increase due to the effects of Covid-19 (though not to (961-1) 977102 levels that would be any cause for alarm). [email protected] A sharp V-shaped macro recovery expected amid low base effects Looking forward, the real economy is set to considerably rebound from its low base of last year, to undergo a sharp V-shaped recovery. Real GDP growth is projected by IMF at 2.1% this year and 4.8% in 2022. Non-oil growth is projected at 3.9% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022 compared to a contraction of 2.3% in 2020. Real oil GDP growth is projected at 0.5% in 2021 (-6.7% in 2020) given production levels agreed by OPEC+ and 6.8% in 2022 as the OPEC+ agreement is assumed to end as announced. In parallel, inflation is projected at 2.8% in 2021, from a 3.4% level in 2020, as per IMF forecasts. 1 June 2021 1 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] ECONOMICSJUNE 2021 SAUDI ARABIA The year 2020 has been a noticeably challenging year for Saudi Arabia amid Pandemic spillovers and low oil prices for most of the year. Real GDP growth is assumed to have reported its first contraction in almost three years, registering -4.1% in 2020. The economy remains dependent on the oil and gas sector, which accounted for about 23% of GDP and 69% of total exports in 2020, albeit down from shares of around 47% and 86% during a period of higher oil prices between 2011 and 2014. It is yet worth mentioning that real non-oil GDP growth rebounded in the second half of 2020 and high-frequency indicators suggest the recovery has continued in 2021. The unemployment rate for Saudi nationals increased to 15.4% in the second quarter of 2020 before declining to 12.6% in the fourth quarter of the year. At the public finance level, Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position remains comparatively robust, albeit weaker than a few years ago. Despite a budget deficit and the build-up of public debt over the past few years, the country still has sufficient fiscal and external buffers to weather periods of low oil prices. As of the end of 2020, the government debt burden was relatively modest at 32.5% of GDP, in line with sovereigns with good fiscal strength scores as per rating agencies. Moody’s estimates that liquid sovereign financial assets, including government deposits with the central bank and net liquid assets of the Public Investment Fund, were around 22% of GDP. The government’s ability to access capital markets and raise exceptional financing, including from government-owned pension and social security funds, was demonstrated during 2020. At the monetary level, CPI inflation increased in July 2020 with the higher VAT rate but has eased in recent months and is estimated at 3.4% for full-year 2020. Broad Money M3 grew by a significant US$ 43.8 billion in 2020, its highest growth in more than half a decade. While net foreign assets reported a significant contraction, the growth in Money Supply last year was totally fueled by the growth in domestic assets. The exchange rate peg continues to serve Saudi Arabia well given the current economic structure, while SAMA’s foreign exchange reserves remain at very comfortable levels. At the banking sector level, the year 2020 saw significant activity growth despite economic challenges. Measured by the aggregation of assets of banks in the sector, banking activity grew by 13.2% over the year 2020, raising assets to GDP from 88.5% in 2019 to 113.3% in 2020. Likewise deposits grew by 8.2%, its highest growth in half a decade. Loans to the private sector rose by 14.3% in 2020, almost double its growth in 2019. The banking sector continues to be well-regulated and supervised by SAMA. Banks are well-capitalized and liquid despite a decline in profitability and a slight increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) (which remain low) over the past year. With respect to capital markets, activity was erratic during 2020 but ended the year on a favorable stance, with the bull trend continuing over the first few months of 2021. At the stock market level, the share price index managed to grow by 3.6% in 2020, and by a significant 21.4% over the first five months of 2021. As NOMINAL AND REAL GDP Sources: Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, IMF, Bank Audi’s Group Research Department 2 June 2021 2 ECONOMICSJUNE 2021 SAUDI ARABIA such, market capitalization reached a record high of US$ 2,575 billion at end-May 2021, with an average Price to Earnings ratio of 32.4 times and an average Price to book value ratio of 4.5 times.
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