Saudi Central Bank

Saudi Central Bank - SAMA Head of Sell-Side Research Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 Quarterly Summary I Q2-2021 [email protected] August 2021 Saudi Central Bank Quarterly Summary | Q2-21

Strong growth in demand deposits drives 9.1 Y/Y growth in money supply; Assets and Liabilities witness low double-digit growth of 10.0% and 10.4%, respectively

Profitability and Money Supply

16 2,300

Banking Sector Profitability: For Q2-21, profitability 12 stood at 12.8bn, depicting an increase of 796.4% Y/Y. 2,100 On a Q/Q basis, profitability increased 4.3%. 8 Money Supply: Increased 9.1% Y/Y to SAR 2,239bn, 1,900 4 driven by 9.6% rise in demand deposits. On Q/Q basis, it rose 2.4%, led by 17.1% increase in other 0 1,700 quasi-money deposits. Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21

Profitability (SAR bn) Money Supply (SAR bn; RHS)

Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital Research

Asset and Liabilities

3,200 Assets: Rose 10.0% Y/Y to SAR 3,114bn, led 2,800 by 15.7% increase in claims on private sector. Increased 2.6% Q/Q, driven by 3.3% rise in claims 2,400 on private sector

2,000 Liabilities: Rose 10.4% Y/Y to SAR 2,691bn, led by 10.2% spike in total deposits. On Q/Q basis, it 1,600 Increased 3.0%, driven by 2.5% rise in total deposits Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21

Assets (SAR bn) Liablities (ex-Capital accounts) (SAR bn)

Deposit growth of 10.2% Y/Y driven by demand deposits, while miscellaneous sector leads loan growth of 16.8% Y/Y; mortgage contracts increased 0.9% Y/Y, while value rose 6.0%

Deposits and Loans

2,100 Deposits: Rose 10.2% Y/Y to SAR 2,030bn, led by 9.6% increase in demand deposits. It Increased 2.5% 1,800 Q/Q, driven by 17.1% rise in other quasi-money.

Loans: Rose 16.8% Y/Y to SAR 1,953bn, led by 1,500 29.7% surge in loans to miscellaneous sector. Increased 4.0% Q/Q, driven by 6.0% rise in

1,200 miscellaneous sector loans Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21

Deposits (SAR bn) Loans (SAR bn)

Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital Research

Mortgage and Net foreign assets

100,000 160 Mortgage: Contracts increased 0.9% Y/Y to 60.0K, 75,000 while value rose 6.0% to SAR 30.3bn; Contracts 120 declined 33.7% Q/Q, while value fell 35.2%. 50,000 Net Foreign Assets: Decreased 40.8% Y/Y to SAR 80 61.7bn, as foreign assets decreased 10.2%, while 25,000 foreign liabilities rose 8.0%. It declined 17.6% Q/Q,

0 40 as foreign assets rose 0.8%, and foreign liabilities increased 8.7%. Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21

Mortgage (no. of contracts) Net Foreign Assets (SAR bn; RHS)

GWP and NCI post modest growth of 0.4% and 0.7% Y/Y growth in Q1-21; Inflation increases by 5.7% in Q2-21, while POS sales rise 54.1% Y/Y

Gross Written Premium and Net Claims Incurred

14 8 Gross Written Premium (Q1-21): GWP stood at 12 7 SAR 12.8bn in Q1-21, depicting an increase of 0.4% Y/Y. On Q/Q basis GWP surged 50.1%. Property and 10 6 fire insurance showed a healthy growth of 11.6% Y/Y, whereas motor showed a fall of 6.8%. 8 5 Net Claims incurred (Q1-21): NCI decreased 0.7% 6 4 Y/Y to SAR 6.5bn, while it declined 0.2% Q/Q. Motor Claims declined 6.7% Y/Y, while increased 0.4% Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q/Q; marine claims showed an increase of 135.8%

GWP NCI (SAR bn; RHS) Y/Y and 80.7% Q/Q.

Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital Research

CPI (Inflation rate) and POS

6% 120

4% Consumer Price Index (CPI)-Inflation: CPI for Q2- 100 21 showed an increase of 5.7% Y/Y, led by 18.9% 2% Y/Y increase in Transport and 13.4% Y/Y increase 80 0% in Communication.

60 -2% Point of Sales (POS): Sales rose 54.1% Y/Y to 118.1bn, while no. of transactions surged 140.2% -4% 40 to 1,206mn. Sales increased 8.2% Q/Q, while no. of transactions rose 13.2% Q/Q. Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21

CPI POS (SAR bn; RHS)

Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital Research 4 © All rights reserved Head of Sell-Side Research Analyst Analyst Jassim Al-Jubran Abdulrahman Al-Mashal Faisal Alsuwelimy +966 11 2256248 +966 11 2256374 +966 11 2256115 [email protected] [email protected]

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