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winter 2017 www.amacad.org vol. lxx, no. 2 american academy of arts & sciences bulletin winter 2017 Bulletin

Induction Ceremony 2016 Class Speakers: Walter Isaacson, Jay D Keasling, Andrea Louise Campbell, Terry A. Plank, and Theaster Gates, Jr.

Educating Students Who Have Different Kinds of Minds Temple Grandin

ALSO: Populism and the Future of American Politics–Charles Stewart III, Lawrence D. Bobo, and Jennifer L. Hochschild Global Warming: Current Science, Future Policy–Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor Ethical Choices in War and Peace–Debra Satz, Scott D. Sagan, Joseph H. Felter, and Paul H. Wise On the Professions–Denis Feeney, Ary Anthony Hoffmann, Paul Offit, and Patricia Ebrey Upcoming Events

FEBRUARY 2017 20th William Eckhardt Research Center 7th University of Chicago The Headliner’s Club Chicago, IL Austin, TX Communicating Scientific Facts in an Age of Uncertainty Dinner with Academy Members and discussion about The Featuring: Arthur Lupia (University of Michigan), Commission on the Future of Undergraduate Education Olufunmilayo I. Olopade (University of Chicago Medical Center), Robert Rosner (University of Chi- 8th cago), Robert J. Zimmer (University of Chicago), Rice University Jonathan F. Fanton (American Academy) Houston, TX Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy in the 28th New Administration National Press Club Featuring: Sylvester James Gates Jr. (University Washington, DC of Maryland, College Park), Jeannette M. Wing Panel Discussion and Press Conference for final report of (Microsoft Research) the Academy’s Commission on Language Learning

9th 28th University of California, San Diego Faculty Club The Cosmos Club La Jolla, CA Washington, DC The Future of Immigration Reform Reception, dinner, and program for Academy Members on Featuring ucsd faculty: David FitzGerald, “Investing in Language Learning for the 21st Century” Tom K. Wong, David A. Lake, moderator MARCH 2017 10th 8th Whittemore House St. Louis, MO House of the Academy Cambridge, MA Breakfast with Academy Members 2017 Distinguished Morton L. Mandel 15th Annual Public Lecture House of the Academy Ethics and the Global War on Terror: Can Conflicts with Cambridge, MA Non-State Actors be Fought in a Just Way? in collaboration with the Catalyst Collaborative@mit APRIL 2017 Staged Reading and Discussion of “Paradise,” a play by Laura Maria Censabella 6th Featuring: Paula Hammond (Massachusetts Insti- House of the Academy tute of Technology), Rebecca Saxe (Massachusetts Cambridge, MA Institute of Technology), Saba Valadkhan (Case Awarding of the 2016 Emerson-Thoreau Medal and the Western Reserve University) 2016 Talcott Parsons Prize

For updates and additions to the calendar, visit www.amacad.org. From the President

he remarks given by new members during our October Induction weekend remind us T of the breadth and depth of talent present in the membership of the American Acad- emy of Arts and Sciences. In this time of transition and uncertainty, both in America and around the world, the question before us is how best to employ the expertise, judgment, and values of our members, in the words of our 1780 charter, “to cultivate every art and science which may tend to advance the interest, honor, dignity, and happiness of a free, independent, and virtuous people.”

Let us consider what we have to offer. The Academy has earned a high level of trust for being independent, nonpartisan, and nonideological, committed to supporting quality research and applying evidence to policy. The Academy has more than five thousand members drawn from virtually every discipline and profession. We are forming program committees in major cities across the country and last Jonathan F. Fanton year offered over ninety meetings for members in twenty cities. Those programs addressed a range of critical issues, including science and policy around global warming; ethical choices in war and peace; populism and the future of American politics; the creative forces in science and entertainment; threats to global cultural heritage; managing the risks of new nuclear technologies; and the role of public research universities in serving the public interest. Recommendations from Academy commissions and studies continue to inform policy; for example, three recommendations from Restoring the Foundation, a report from our project on New Models for U.S. Science and Technology Policy that suggests actions to secure America’s leadership in science and engineering research, are included in the recently passed American Innovation and Competitiveness Act. The Academy also has a project underway looking at how the public builds trust–or distrust–in science and the scientific process. The Public Face of Sci- ence will look at all types of media and at how science informs public policy decisions. And issues of Dædalus are addressing important topics such as immigration, mass incarceration, judicial indepen- dence, race and inequality, and corruption. As the Academy approaches its 250th anniversary, it is time to return to the issues that concerned our founders: how to build a nation rooted in the belief that the government derives its “just powers from the consent of the governed.” Central to this belief was a conviction that all citizens had the right and the responsibility to be fully engaged in shaping the life of the new democracy. America has grown and prospered far beyond what the nation’s founders could have imagined. And so it is natural to ask: how can the Academy help citizens to strengthen their country by exercising the rights and embrac- ing the responsibilities of democratic citizenship? Encouraging participation in the political process is one central goal. The fact that 42 percent of those eligible to vote in last year’s presidential election did not do so is a reminder of the importance of encouraging this most fundamental practice of citizenship in a democracy. But perhaps more important is articulating the significance of civic engagement more broadly. The Academy is considering a new project on strengthening the practice of democratic citizenship. Certainly increasing the study of history and civics in K-12 as well as in higher education will be one objective of such a project. Understanding how people obtain accurate information about their government and develop trust in expertise will be important. A critical focus will be understanding the role of the institutions of civil society, such as churches, voluntary associations, and youth groups like the Scouts and 4-H. Academy member Thomas Ehrlich has defined civic engagement as “working to make a difference in the civic life of our communities and developing the combination of knowledge, skills, values, and motivation to make a difference. It means promoting the quality of life in a community from the president

through both a political and non-political process.”1 Our project seeks to better understand the forms and substance of civic engagement today, at a time when the rise of social media and other forms of online activity have altered the contours of community interaction. This project aspires to change the terms of an ongoing conversation about what forms of activity constitute civic engagement and how those activities help people gain the knowledge, skills, and values necessary to participate as citizens responsible for their own government. Engagement in their communities enables citizens to define problems and opportunities and then collaborate to address them. As Alexis de Tocqueville noted on his visit to the United States in the 1830s, one of the distinguishing features of the young republic was the propensity of its citizens to join together in forming associations to achieve specific community goals. He was astonished by the “immense assemblage of associations in that country,” and spent a great deal of energy analyzing why Americans–who were the most individ- ualistic people he had ever met–were so active in forming organizations.2 Tocqueville concluded of the American citizens he met that “They all, therefore, become powerless if they do not learn voluntarily to help one another.”3 This project will examine the specific ways citizens today are joining together to help one another, to improve their communities, and to develop the values–such as empathy, respect for others, and critical thinking–so essential to a healthy democracy. Among the questions the project will ask are: zzWhat are the forms of civic engagement that are not included in traditional civics education? Are there behaviors that count as “civic engagement” that we might be overlooking? zzWhat experiences encourage people to engage in civic institutions and model the behaviors needed for civic participation? zzWhat mechanisms exist for connecting people across demographic and ideological boundaries? What spaces are there for people to learn how to interact with those who are different from them? zzHow have the technological and media transformations of the past twenty years altered what civic engagement looks like? zzHow will our needs change as the demographic makeup of the nation changes? One objective of the project is to collect baseline data on a wide range of practices and behaviors that bolster or weaken civic engagement and to evaluate how the level of civic engagement connects to responsible democratic citizenship. The data will be collected on an ongoing basis to provide researchers and policy-makers with an evidence-based foundation for future discussions. We hope that the insights from the project will be useful to policy-makers and the public in helping Americans come together to strengthen our democracy so that it remains a positive example for societies around the world. We welcome your comments on additional ways the Academy can fulfill its mission of advancing the common good in this time of transition.

1. Thomas Ehrlich, Civic Responsibility and Higher Education (Lanham, md: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000), vi. 2. Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America, Book II, Chapter 5. 3. Ibid. Contents

Academy Projects

4 New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technology, and War 6 Preserving Intellectual Legacies in the Digital Age 8 New Findings on the Costs, Occupations, and Incomes of Ph.D.’s 11 The Academy at Work: Projects and Studies

Presentations

35 Induction Ceremony 2016: Presentations by New Members Terry A. Plank, Jay D Keasling, Andrea Louise Campbell, Theaster Gates, Jr., and Walter Isaacson 46 Educating Students Who Have Different Kinds of Minds Temple Grandin 53 Populism and the Future of American Politics Charles Stewart III, Lawrence D. Bobo, and Jennifer L. Hochschild 62 Global Warming: Current Science, Future Policy Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor 68 A Collective Moral Awakening: Ethical Choices in War and Peace Debra Satz, Scott D. Sagan, Joseph H. Felter, and Paul H. Wise

On the Professions

76 Why is There a Literature in the Latin Language? Denis Feeney 78 Appreciating Biological Variation Ary Anthony Hoffmann 80 A Scientist’s Work on Vaccines Paul Offit 82 China’s Repeated Reunifications Patricia Ebrey

Update on Members

84 Member Connection 85 In Memoriam: Leo L. Beranek 86 Noteworthy academy projects

New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technology, and War

hough technology and warfare have greatly evolved since Michael Walzer published his seminal text Just and Unjust T Wars over forty years ago, the debate on the ethical challenges posed by these changes has been confined mostly within the boundaries of specific disciplines; few attempts have been made to pursue a genuine interdisciplinary debate on this matter. The Academy’s New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technology, and War project, chaired by Scott D. Sagan (Stanford University), aims to challenge the silo approach to the topic and to foster instead a broader and more comprehensive discussion. First convened in 2014 to explore the intricate connections between the advancement of military technology and the moral and ethical considerations of the deployment of such capabilities in war and in postwar settings, the project has produced two Dædalus volumes and convened workshop and outreach events, informing the ongoing debate surrounding these issues and providing useful teaching tools.

From the beginning, the New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technolo- other domestic and international organization procedures. The vol- gy, and War project never strove to achieve intellectual consensus ume approaches these questions through an analysis of the rules of among its participants, although the workshops prior to the pub- war in asymmetric conflicts, the prosecution of war crimes, and cri- lication of the Dædalus volumes allowed for a truly collaborative tiques of just war doctrine. Brigadier General Mark S. Martins (U.S. writing experience. By bringing together a multidisciplinary group Army) and Jacob Bronsther (London School of Economics and Po- of authors–political scientists, military practitioners, just war the- litical Science) tackle the question of the efficacy of war crimes tri- orists, statesmen, philosophers, historians, ethicists, lawyers, and als in “Stay the Hand of Justice? Evaluating Claims that War Crimes physicians–this project has not only gathered diverse perspectives Trials Do More Harm than Good.” War crimes trial skeptics argue and a wide variety of ideas, but has enabled its authors and partic- that such trials endanger prospects for peace by encouraging ene- ipants to learn more about the concerns of different sectors and mies to continue fighting, that they achieve only “victors’ justice,” identify and address any gaps in their own work. In addition, the and that they are unnecessary due to the existence of more effec- project invited outside experts to review and offer suggestions on tive and less costly alternatives. But Martins and Bronsther argue, the ongoing research, introducing multiple approaches to the study in accordance with a “moderate retributivism,” that when carried of these complex relationships. out consistently with established law and procedure, and when not The Fall 2016 issue of Dædalus on “Ethics, Technology & War” ex- dramatically outweighed by concerns that trials will exacerbate on- plores the questions and contradictions raised by the evolving state going or future conflicts, prosecutions are a legitimate and some- of twenty-first-century warfare and politics, in the context of just times necessary response to violations of the laws of war and inter- war theory and the international laws of war. The Dædalus issue ad- national criminal law. Also in the volume, Paul H. Wise (Stanford dresses such diverse topics as autonomous weapons, targeted kill- University) offers a physician’s perspective in “The Epidemiologi- ing by drones, the use of nuclear weapons, the responsibility to pro- cal Challenge to the Conduct of Just War: Confronting Indirect Ci- tect doctrine, the role of early warning and early action, American vilian Casualties of War.” He points out that most civilian casualties public opinion, and the use of cyber technologies in war, among in war are the result of “indirect effects,” of the disruption of the others. In “Just & Unjust Targeted Killing & Drone Warfare,” for essentials of daily living, including food, water, shelter, and health example, Michael Walzer (Institute for Advanced Study) argues care, and suggests that recent technological advances make such that targeted killing by drones ought to be subject to the same con- neglect increasingly unacceptable. For more information about straints as other forms of targeted killing in times of war. He shows these Dædalus volumes or to access the essays, please visit http:// that the Obama administration’s secretive drone program has in- www.amacad.org/daedalus. deed relaxed restrictions on targeted killing, and has done so with- A primary goal of the project has been to reach as many policy- out public debate. Considering the question of whether to ban com- makers, military practitioners, academics, and students as possible, bat drones outright, he argues instead for the opening-up of the de- fostering conversation, debate, and, ultimately, a reexamination of cision process to democratic scrutiny. the existing legal and ethical frameworks guiding prewar, war, and The Winter 2017 issue of Dædalus on “The Changing Rules of postwar decisions. Academy staff and project members have orga- War” examines the evolution of just war doctrine, the laws of nized several events in the United States and abroad to reach these armed conflict, the rules of engagement, war crimes tribunals, and diverse audiences and generate a deeper examination of these issues.

4 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 new dilemmas in ethics, technology, and war

Scott D. Sagan (Stanford University), Joseph H. Felter (Stanford University), Paul H. Wise (Stanford University), and Debra Satz (Stanford University) at the “Ethical Choices in War and Peace” Stated Meeting at Stanford University.

During an authors’ workshop and series of panel discussions The project is continuing its efforts with meetings with think hosted at West Point, for example, representatives from several or- tanks in Washington, D.C., briefings with policy-makers in U.S. ganizations, including the United Nations High Commissioner for military leadership, and further international outreach. Refugees (unhcr) and the United Nations Department of Peace- In addition, the Academy is organizing a Stated Meeting in Cam- keeping Operations (undpko), along with West Point’s military bridge, Massachusetts, on March 8, 2017, on “Ethics and the Glob- and civilian professors, were invited to join the authors in discus- al War on Terror.” The program, which will serve as the 2017 Dis- sions of key ethical challenges currently facing states, internation- tinguished Morton L. Mandel Annual Public Lecture, will be live- al organizations, and ngos concerned with the planning, impact, streamed online. More information about the meeting is available conduct, and aftermath of war. One attendee invited the Academy on the Academy’s website at www.amacad.org. and project leaders to Geneva to speak with high-level leadership The project also hopes to participate in the blog series Political at unhcr one week prior to a major five-year planning process for Violence @ a Glance: Expert Analysis on Violence and Its Alterna- the organization. He expressed that, even with his years of experi- tives, which provides analysis on violence and protest in the world’s ence in this field, the research conducted by the project’s authors conflict zones, as well as publish a series of op-ed essays related to offered him new perspectives that he was eager to share with his the topics covered in the two Dædalus issues. colleagues. Such new connections and opportunities have been one The Academy is grateful to Humanity United, the John D. and of the many benefits of these outreach activities. Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the Rockefeller Founda- Other events have included an Academy Stated Meeting on “Eth- tion for supporting the New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technology, and ical Choices in War and Peace” (see page 68); a series of briefings War project. n with the undpko in New York; a day-long series of public panel discussions on “Ethical Dilemmas in War” with King’s College London; talks at Oxford University; and a series of briefings with nato and the ngo International Crisis Group in Brussels.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 5 academy projects

Preserving Intellectual Legacies in the Digital Age

vivid glow nooked in her face, lighting up both her sorrow and her joy. . . .” Leo Tolstoy did not write this, but “A such writing was attributed to him when a company called Superior Formatting Publishing reformatted War and Peace from Amazon’s Kindle platform to Barnes & Noble’s Nook platform. The reformatting went haywire, and suddenly “nook” replaced the word “kindle” in copies of the literary classic transmitted to unwitting readers. In the case of War and Peace, the result was slightly irritating and need to partner with the worlds of technology, philanthropy, policy, largely comedic. Sadly, medical scholarship, financial forecasting, and publishing to ensure that intellectual legacies survive for future and a range of public decision-making are also susceptible to such generations of scholars. The participants discussed the interactions vagaries of transmission. In 2013, a team of researchers at UMass between copyright law and obsolescence, the authentication of au- Amherst discovered that economists who were advising the eu to thorship, creating financial models that allow libraries and archives undertake austerity measures at the height of the recession had ac- to catalog and preserve digital copies of books and journals as easily cidentally excluded several key data points in their Excel spread- as physical copies, academic mentorship for the twenty-first cen- sheet. A mistaken code in the age of self-driving cars or medical big tury, preservation of data sets and algorithms, and the integrity of data could easily lead to life-threatening decisions. a digital manuscript. The conversations also focused on the more Learning to cope with the transitory nature of information stor- technical problems of access, user-interface, and the mechanics of age and transmission will eventually become a normal feature of hardware and software. twenty-first-century scholarship. In the worst cases, one wrong Throughout the conference, the participants highlighted several click of a mouse button and weeks of research, years of written text, challenges and cited sobering statistics. Digital humanities scholar and decades (or, in the case of War and Peace, centuries) of preser- Abby Smith Rumsey noted that nearly 80 percent of all silent films vation can be undermined, effectively making the written word as produced in the early decades of cinema have been lost entirely. Jon- transitory as the spoken one. athan Zittrain (Professor of Law and Librarian at the Harvard Law A group of Academy members decided that learned societies, School) commented that 75 percent of the links cited in the Harvard along with libraries, publishers, software companies, information Law Review are inaccessible online because the links to those articles engineers, and lawyers need to make a more coordinated effort to are no longer accurate (a phenomenon known as “link rot”). help scholars navigate this new terrain. This concern led to a sym- Former Harvard University Librarian Robert Darnton pointed posium on “Preserving Intellectual Legacies in the Digital Age,” out that three publishing houses control 42 percent of all scholarly which was held at the House of the Academy on September 23, 2016, articles that are published each year, and can thus exercise an out- under the auspices of the Academy’s Exploratory Fund. The con- sized influence over what knowledge is and is not accessible. Carla ference, convened by Academy members Carla Hesse (Dean of So- Hesse and her Berkeley colleague Molly Shaffer Van Houweling not- cial Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley) and Pamela ed that the vast majority of scholarly works produced in the twen- Samuelson (Richard M. Sherman Distinguished Professor of Law tieth century are effectively invisible: these works are not commer- and Information at the University of California, Berkeley) brought cially viable for their publishers to reprint, but they are still under together librarians, legal scholars, poets, computer and cognitive copyright protection, and thus cannot be made available digitally. In scientists, publishers, sociologists, historians, and classicists. addition to a failure to preserve and maintain access to older cultur- The symposium began with a keynote presentation by Brewster al materials, new bodies of content are being created without suffi- Kahle (Founder of the Internet Archive), who stressed the values cient attention to how that content will be preserved. Dan Cohen of equity in digital access, the reformulation of current copyright (Executive Director of the Digital Public Library of America) ob- policies (particularly with regard to securing more rights for au- served that Facebook produces more data than any other company thors and distributors), and the importance of innovation. in the world, but it does little to preserve these data (at least not in a The conference focused on five themes: the role of libraries and way that would make them available to future scholars). And several access to knowledge; sustainable infrastructure for knowledge participants pointed out that even if the data that are being created creation; archiving challenges; epistemic integrity; and policies by social media companies and others were made available, the data to avoid oblivion. The sessions were animated by the realization are organized through algorithms that are and will remain propri- that as more and more scholarship is digitized and scholars become etary, posing additional challenges. Access to both new and old data increasingly dependent on digital technology to preserve and ar- is complicated by the need for software that will enable that access. chive their scholarly findings, librarians, archivists, and curators Mahadev Satyanarayanan (Professor of Computer Science at Car-

6 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 preserving intellectual legacies in the digital age

Participants at the Academy’s meeting on Preserving Intellectual Legacies in the Digital Age negie Mellon University) remarked that there is virtually no effort disseminated. This control can last for the entire term of the copy- made to preserve what he referred to as “software executability,” or right (which continues for the life of the author plus seventy years), technology that will ensure that future users of preserved software even though publishers’ interests in commercial dissemination will actually have the same user experience that original users did. typically last only a few years. While authors’ interests in reaching The transition to digital scholarship and digital preservation also readers and spreading knowledge continue, the authors’ ability to highlights the emerging challenges of up-to-date digital libraries. pursue those interests can be hampered by their lack of copyright As Paul Courant (Harold T. Shapiro Collegiate Professor of Public control. Helping scholars understand their options for managing Policy, Arthur F. Thurnau Professor, Professor of Economics, and their copyrights so that they can be empowered to ensure that their Professor of Information at the University of Michigan) mentioned rights are aligned with their interests was a process that many par- during the conference, physical libraries benefitted from the struc- ticipants felt should be part of graduate education. (This is work tural existence of what could have been a guiding invisible hand: that is promoted by the Authors Alliance, a group with which sev- “It is by total dumb luck, of the way that printing and publishing eral of the meeting participants are involved.) works technologically combined with the missions of the academy While there is reason to believe that the age of the printed schol- and approximately rational behavior on the part of the university arly book may be coming to an end, it is not clear what will replace administrations, who were competing in a space for quality, that no it. Several participants stressed the need to ensure that the schol- one had to do anything very special in order for the great bulk of the arly record does not disappear by neglect when this shift takes published academic literature to be organized in ways that made it place. Dan Cohen proposed encouraging libraries, universities, and fairly durable and easy to find.” learned societies to devote 1 percent of their annual budgets to a col- There is very little reason to believe that digital libraries will lective effort at digital preservation, and to invest in technologies function in the same way. Things are not as easy to find on Google and user interfaces that will ensure preservation by default rather Scholar and there is not yet an intuitive way to organize such find- than by accident. ings or even secure funding for their organization. Both the need for While increased federal funding for such a sustainable infra- early investment and the scale of contemporary preservation mean structure to protect scholarship would be valuable, Don Waters that digital libraries will have to engage in a large coordinating prac- (Senior Program Officer for Scholarly Communications at the An- tice if material is not to be lost. drew W. Mellon Foundation), among others, suggested that a more But instead of merely highlighting challenges, participants also realistic first step would be to coordinate “micro-preservation” at began to identify things that universities, libraries, publishers, au- the campus level, which would connect scholars and Academy thors, and learned societies can do to enable continued access to members on university campuses with their local archivists and li- scholarship in the digital age. Many of these solutions focused on brarians to ensure that their legacies are preserved. This type of steps that can be taken to increase authors’ control over the fate of bottom-up approach would help scholars preserve their own work the texts that they produce. Authors often transfer their copyright and test techniques that might eventually be deployed by larger- to publishers, who thereafter control how articles and books are scale efforts. n

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 7 academy projects

New Findings on the Costs, Occupations, and Incomes of Ph.D.’s

he Humanities Indicators project recently released a series of reports on the life cycle of doctoral degree recipients in T every field, shedding light on the challenges involved in earning the degree, and the occupational outcomes and incomes of those with a Ph.D.

The Costs of a Ph.D. In a new analysis of the costs of earning a Ph.D., the Indicators report that debt accu- Average Level of Graduate Education Debt Accumulated mulated during graduate study among re- by Doctorate Recipients, Selected Academic Fields, cent degree recipients has been rising faster 2002–2014 (Adjusted for Inflation) than inflation.1 From 2002 to 2014, for example, the median level of graduate educa- 30,000 tion debt of doctoral degree recipients in- Education creased 39 percent, from $11,252 to $15,591 25,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars (Figure 1). Behavioral & Social Debt levels rose most sharply for doc- Sciences toral degree recipients in education (an in- s r 20,000 Humanities crease of 130 percent) and in the human- l a D o ities (an increase of 56 percent), as well as 4

1 All Fields in the behavioral and social sciences (an 0 15,000 2 increase of 51 percent). As of 2014, medi- t n a an debt levels for students in all three fields t s Life were well above the median for all fields n 10,000 Sciences combined–ranging from $22,405 among C o humanities Ph.D.’s to $28,412 for doctoral Engineering degree recipients in education. 5,000 In a separate analysis, the Indicators re- Physical port that these same three fields also have Sciences the largest shares of graduates that relied 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 primarily on their own resources to pay for their studies: 48 percent of the 2014 Ph.D.’s in education, 25 percent of the graduates in Figure 1 Source and details at http://humanitiesindicators.org. the behavioral and social sciences, and 20 percent among new degree recipients in the humanities.2 assistantships, but more than 33 percent in each field reported re- Ph.D.’s in the humanities were also notable for having the highest search assistantships as their primary source of support. reliance on teaching assistantships: 41 percent reported that teach- Another important cost for those pursuing a Ph.D. is time spent ing assistantships were their primary source of support. In compar- earning the degree. The Indicators highlight variation among the ison, among doctoral degree recipients in the life and physical sci- fields: the median number of years humanities doctoral degree re- ences, less than 28 percent reported a strong reliance on teaching cipients spend in their programs is one year longer than Ph.D.’s in the science fields.3 In a new analysis, the Indicators find that the median age of doctoral degree recipients in the humanities has con- 1. See http://humanitiesindicators.org/content/indicatordoc.aspx?i=11125. sistently been three-years older than the median for all fields com- Data drawn from federal Survey of Earned Doctorates. 2. See http://humanitiesindicators.org/content/indicatorDoc.aspx?i=50. 3. See http://humanitiesindicators.org/content/indicatorDoc.aspx?i=49. Data drawn from federal Survey of Earned Doctorates. Data drawn from federal Survey of Earned Doctorates.

8 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 costs, occupations, and incomes of ph.d.’s

Occupations of Employed Ph.D.’s, in the Humanities and stem Fields, 2013

Arts, Design, Entertainment, & Media

Business & Financial Operations Humanities

Community & Social Services STEM Fields l a

n Computing & Information Technology o i s s

e Education: Precollegiate Teaching f o r P

Education: Postsecondary Teaching & t n

e Education: Other m e

g Health Care a n a

M Legal

Library & Museum

Management

Sciences & Engineering

Office & Admin. Support

Sales

Service

Other

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Share of Employed Ph.D.'s in Occupation (%)

Figure 2 Source and details at http://humanitiesindicators.org. bined. In 2014, the median age of new humanities Ph.D.’s was 34.2 National Science Foundation’s National Survey of College Gradu- years; among doctoral degree recipients in engineering and the life ates (nscg) highlights the wide differences among the fields in the and physical sciences, the median age was 31 years or less.4 occupational outcomes of their graduates (Figure 2).5 As of 2013, 60 percent of employed humanities Ph.D.’s were in A Mix of Occupations for Ph.D.’s postsecondary teaching jobs, as compared with less than a third of the doctoral degree recipients from each of the stem fields. Only Alongside the new insights into the challenges involved in earning Ph.D.’s from the fine and performing arts had a comparable share a doctoral degree, the Indicators released cross-field comparisons employed in postsecondary teaching (55 percent). of the occupations of Ph.D.’s. An original analysis of data from the 5. See http://humanitiesindicators.org/content/indicatordoc.aspx?i=69. 4. See http://humanitiesindicators.org/content/indicatordoc.aspx?i=11126. Data drawn from National Science Foundation, National Survey of Col- Data drawn from federal Survey of Earned Doctorates. lege Graduates, 2013.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 9 academy projects

The new findings highlight the much larger array of applied and For more information about the Humanities practical occupational positions available for doctoral degree recip- Indicators, please visit the Academy’s website at ients from the stem fields, with substantial shares employed in http://www.humanitiesindicators.org or contact science and engineering jobs rather than in postsecondary teach- the Indicators staff at humanitiesindicators@ ing positions–ranging from 36 percent of employed Ph.D.’s in the amacad.org. behavioral and social sciences to 49 percent of the doctoral degree recipients in the life sciences. Beyond the large gaps among the fields in the shares employed in postsecondary teaching, as opposed to science and engineering occupations, substantial shares of Ph.D.’s from most fields were in management positions–from 8 percent of humanities and health and medical sciences Ph.D.’s to 19 percent of those who received doctoral degrees in business. The one exception was among arts Ph.D.’s: less than 3 percent of doctoral degree recipients in the arts were employed in management positions.

Earnings for Ph.D. Recipients The field with the highest concentration of Ph.D.’s in academic employment–the humanities–also had the lowest median earnings, according to the Indicators. Humanities Ph.D.’s working full time had a median salary of $75,000, well below the median for all fields combined ($99,000)6. Some humanities Ph.D.’s made considerably more, however. Earnings for the top 25 percent of doctoral degree recipients in the humanities were greater than the median earnings of Ph.D.’s in each of the other fields. The report also notes that there was a substantial gender earnings gap among doctoral degree recipients in every field except education. Ph.D.’s from business and the humanities had the largest gender gap among employed Ph.D.’s–with a 34 percent gap in median annual earnings between men and women employed full time (the median earnings for men were $95,000 compared with $63,000 for women). Among the stem fields, the gap was 30 percent in the life sciences (the median earnings for men were $100,000 compared with $70,000 for women), and even smaller in the other stem fields. Prompted by the interest generated by these reports, the Indica- tors staff is using the nscg data to answer additional questions, such as how levels of earnings and job satisfaction for those employed in postsecondary teaching compare to that of advanced degree recipients who are employed outside the professoriate. n

6. See http://humanitiesindicators.org/content/indicatordoc.aspx?i=70. Data drawn from National Science Foundation, National Survey of Col- lege Graduates, 2013.

10 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 academy projects

The Academy at Work: Projects and Studies

n October 8, 2016, as part of the Academy’s 2016 Induction weekend program, new Members were briefed on the Academy’s research projects and studies. The speakers, who play an active role in one or more Academy projects, Ohighlighted the studies’ current activities and the many opportunities for new Members to participate. The presentations focused on Humanities and Education; Global Security and International Affairs; Science, Engineering, and Technology; American Institutions; and Exploratory Projects. What follows is an edited version of the speakers’ remarks. Humanities & Education

The Humanities Indicators make high-quality data available to anyone interested in the current state of the field, allowing them to study the context of present conditions, follow key trends, and predict emerging issues for the humanities disciplines.

manities Center in North Carolina. In recent Indicators make high-quality data available years, the Academy has taken a more public to anyone interested in the current state of role, as the sponsor of the National Com- the field, allowing them to study the context mission on the Humanities and Social Sci- of present conditions, follow key trends, ences, which released its influential report, and predict emerging issues for the human- The Heart of the Matter: The Humanities and ities disciplines. The Indicators are regu- Social Sciences for a Vibrant, Competitive, and larly updated at humanitiesindicators.org, Secure Nation, in 2013. The projects we will providing an empirical basis for the ongo- Pauline Yu discuss today all follow in that tradition, as ing national conversation on the state of Pauline Yu is President of the American Coun- large groups of experts drawn from diverse the humanities. On this topic, I will just say cil of Learned Societies. Elected a Fellow of the fields come together to share their expertise that I’ll never forget the comment of Phyl- American Academy in 1998, she is a Member and offer recommendations to support our lis Franklin, who was the executive director nation’s educational institutions. of the Modern Language Association when of the Academy’s Board of Directors. She also Before opening the discussion, I want to this project was being discussed. When que- serves on the Advisory Group for the Lincoln talk briefly about the Humanities Indica- ried as to the necessity of a quantitative ap- Project: Excellence and Access in Public Higher tors project, so ably directed by the Acade- proach, she quipped, “If you can’t count, Education and is a member of the Commission my’s Robert Townsend in our Washington, you don’t count.” on the Humanities and Social Sciences. D.C., office. An ongoing Academy effort– launched in 2009–this project represents t critical times over the past century, a valuable resource for educators, policy- A the Academy has assumed a leadership makers, journalists, and all those seeking role in American higher education, particu- data to assess the welfare of the humanities larly in support of the humanities. The Acad- in the United States. Modeled on the Sci- emy worked behind the scenes to develop ence and Engineering Indicators of the Na- new institutions, such as the National Hu- tional Science Foundation, the Humanities

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 11 academy projects

Commission on the Future of Undergraduate Education

We are arriving at this work at a very challenging time for American society and the American economy, and with a strong belief that higher education has a critical role to play in the future of this society – not only as a successful, prosperous economy, but as a fair and progressive society with opportunities for all.

ucation they need to thrive in the twenty- on equal terms, but it is access. Success in first century. We’re thinking about this college is a much more challenging propo- challenge of the future from a generation- sition, and graduation rates fluctuate across al perspective. At a time of great social de- different population groups tremendously. mographic and technical change in educa- We know that even though higher educa- Michael S. McPherson tion in the United States, we’re attempting tion is important to most Americans–and Michael S. McPherson is President of the Spencer to look ahead as far as twenty or twenty-five that most Americans seek it–there is also Foundation. Prior to joining the Spencer Foun- years. We are excited by the challenge, increasing doubt about higher education, dation, he served as President of Macalester Col- somewhat intimidated by the challenge, but about the fairness of its provision, about the determined to address this important topic affordability of college and the burdens of lege in St. Paul, Minnesota. He was elected a Fel- in a very serious way. loans, and even about the integrity of higher low of the American Academy in 2014 and serves There are seven main topic areas under education, with some collegiate institutions as Cochair of the Academy’s Commission on the discussion: framing the future of under- being shut down by the federal government Future of Undergraduate Education. graduate education; inequality and ineq- because they’re not being run in a responsi- uity; costs and affordability; teaching and ble way. We want to tackle all of the practi- he diverse membership of the Commis- learning; the liberal arts and vocational ed- cal projects and challenges that face higher T sion on the Future of Undergraduate ucation; the role of government regulation education, but I want to emphasize that we Education reflects the fact that undergrad- in an innovative age; and anticipating and will not limit ourselves to the narrow ques- uate education has become an extremely responding to future trends. We are arriving tions of paying for college and getting a job broad category in the United States. We are at this work at a very challenging time for after college. Appropriately for this august taking on a range of institutions, focusing American society and the American econo- institution, we intend to take on topics that on the many opportunities that are available my, and with a strong belief that higher ed- address the values and the larger purposes to people who have graduated from high ucation has a critical role to play in the fu- of higher education. So you will see in our school in the United States, from commu- ture of this society–not only as a success- focus areas that we will have something to nity colleges and for-profit institutions to ful, prosperous economy, but as a fair and say about the liberal arts in relation to the the broad public universities and the great progressive society with opportunities for occupational purposes of higher education. research universities. all. At this time, more than 85 percent of all We will have something to say about what The mission of the Commission is not a people who graduate from high school in goes on inside colleges and universities; not modest one. We’re influenced by the prin- the United States have some contact with simply what goes in and what comes out the ciple of making no small plans. We have un- a college or university–some experience other end, but the challenging process of dertaken a three-year project to examine the of college enrollment–in the subsequent studying, teaching, and learning. And per- state of undergraduate education in Amer- eight years. We’re coming very close to an haps most important of all, we will have ica, and to provide ideas for how to ensure idea of almost universal access for high something to say about the looming prob- that individual Americans receive the ed- school graduates. It’s not necessarily access lems of educational opportunity in a time of

12 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 humanities & education

The Lincoln Project: Excellence and Access in Public Higher Education growing material inequality in our society. in the way intended when President Lin- We are at an early stage. We don’t yet have coln established them through the Morrill answers to any of these questions. We don’t Act more than 150 years ago? have recommendations at this point. But The Lincoln Project advisory group con- those are some of the directions in which sists primarily of members of the Academy the commission is heading. and, by design, includes a broad cross section Debate about higher education is often of disciplines and interests. This is because we based on rather elusive facts, and so we be- believe that all sectors–the federal govern- gan early on to work with a data advisory ment, state governments, business, founda- group to make sure we have a good com- tions, nonprofits, students and their families, mand of the best-available research and and the universities themselves–all will have facts. The work of the data advisory group to contribute in order to guarantee the health enabled us to produce our first publication, of our great public research universities. a fact-based, largely quantitative account of We have produced a series of five publica- the current situation in undergraduate high- tions, each with a different focus: Why They er education in the United States, A Primer Matter documents in detail the role of public on the College Student Journey. It has, so far, research universities in our society. Changes been very well received. Aided by this data- Robert J. Birgeneau in State Funding tells the rather desultory rich foundation, we have also begun to un- Robert J. Birgeneau is Chancellor Emeritus and story of the massive disinvestment in high- dertake, and will continue to undertake, the Arnold and Barbara Silverman Distinguished er education by state governments. Under- outreach efforts, congressional visits, meet- Professor of Physics, Materials Science and En- standing the Financial Model explains the ba- ings with students and faculty, and other sic financial model that now obtains at most gineering, and Public Policy at the University of forms of conversation around the country. public research universities. We all suffer California, Berkeley. He was elected a Fellow of We have so far had two meetings, and have from the fact that no newspaper or major the American Academy in 1987 and serves as Co- another coming up next month. The final magazine seems to understand public uni- chair of the Academy’s Lincoln Project. report will be published in the fall of 2017, versity finances, and further, most universi- something I keep reminding myself. And ty faculty do not seem to understand their thereafter, we will go to great effort to com- e are at the exact opposite end of a own university’s financial model either. municate the conclusions and recommen- Wproject lifespan, so to speak, from the Serving the Public Good focuses on the many dations widely, and we are very interested Commission on the Future of Undergradu- ways public research universities contrib- in your perspectives on these issues. If you ate Education. Mary Sue Coleman–who ute to the educational, economic, and civ- have questions, if you want to offer any in- was, when we began, president of the Uni- ic health of U.S. society, in addition to their put or thoughts, please let us know. versity of Michigan, and is now president of major contributions in health care and qual- the Association of American Universities– ity of life. The final and longest publication, and I are the cochairs of the Lincoln Project: Recommitting to Lincoln’s Vision—An Educa- Excellence and Access in Public Higher Edu- tional Compact for the 21st Century, provides cation. The Lincoln Project has, in essence, the project’s detailed recommendations for looked at the specific challenges facing the ensuring that public research universities approximately 145 public research univer- can meet their core mission in the twenty- sities across the United States. Our mission first century. I cannot do these publications is to understand how we are going to main- justice in our short time today; accordingly, tain both the excellence and the accessibil- I encourage you to visit the Academy’s web- ity of these institutions in the face of mas- site to read these publications in full. I be- sive state disinvestments. How can we guar- lieve that overall these publications are very antee that these universities will continue to well done thanks to the terrific work by the be public in character and serve the public Academy staff.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 13 academy projects

It is important to recognize first that there tirely by state disinvestment. So why has irreversible. Disinvestment has largely been is at least one outstanding public research the state disinvested in public higher educa- compensated for by increases in tuition and university in every single state in the union, tion? Elementary and secondary education greater reliance on out-of-state and interna- and many of these states, like Michigan and costs, the states’ largest general fund expen- tional students, both of which do not appear Washington, have no elite private research ditures, have steadily risen. Meanwhile, the to be sustainable. Further, commitment university at all. Overall, public universities cost of Medicaid, the second greatest state to access varies wildly between different are overwhelmingly responsible for the col- expenditure, has skyrocketed, eating away states. Some states are deeply committed to legiate education of this country: 88 percent at public funds. Higher education is the addressing income inequality through high- of all students pursuing a B.A. attend a pub- third largest general fund expenditure, but er education, while others, disturbingly, ap- lic university. This is in no way meant to denis followed closely by corrections. Over the pear to have no interest in this core societal igrate the role that our outstanding private last thirty years, state investment in high- issue. One important conclusion of the re- universities play, but relative to the postsec- er education has been static, while funding gional meetings was the ubiquitous need to ondary student population as a whole, their of corrections has gone up by 141 percent. improve graduation rates. We also learned educational contributions are limited. In fact, twelve states, including California, that while corporate America often provides support for contract-based applied research, The progressive increases in tuition, which public the amount of support from American cor- porations for either core university opera- universities have vigorously fought to keep as tions or student financial aid is disappoint- modest as possible, have been driven almost ingly small. We were gratified to find that, across the country, we have great public re- entirely by state disinvestment. search university leadership. One of the primary responsibilities of this leadership is to Given that public universities bear the re- spend more money putting people in pris- ensure that universities continue to improve sponsibility for educating the great majori- on and keeping them there than they spend on their operational efficiency. ty of college students, it is chilling to look at providing Californians with a higher educa- To conclude, I will briefly mention four of their budgets, as measured by expenditures tion. This is a national disgrace. our specific recommendations: 1) institute per full-time equivalent student, compared Of course this disinvestment directly af- a federal-state-private matching endowed with those of the corresponding privates. fects tuition. Decreased state support is re- chair program at public research universities Specifically, private universities belonging sponsible for driving 80 percent of tuition in all fifty states; 2) repatriate offshore cor- to the Association of American Universities increases at public research universities, porate funds, which now stand at more than spend between three and four times more while increased spending on instruction $2.4 trillion, at a reduced tax rate and appro- per student than do the publics. My col- and spending on administration and sup- priate 1 percent of the gains for public high- league, Henry Brady, dean of the Goldman port are responsible for only 9 and 6 percent, er education; 3) launch large-scale industry- School of Public Policy at uc Berkeley, likes respectively. The data show that, on the sponsored undergraduate scholarships; and to say that this proves how efficient we are whole, administrative bloat is a myth, and 4) increase financial aid for low-income stu- or, more colloquially, that we offer a Cadil- that administration costs have been kept dents through private-donor, state, and uni- lac education at a Chevy price. Said less pos- under control at public universities across versity matching programs. We need both itively, this expenditure disparity demon- the country. There has been essentially no the federal government and major corpora- strates just how financially deficient we are. change in workforce composition at public tions to step up and begin to provide support We have seen an extraordinary state dis- research universities, except for, on average, for the operations of our public research uni- investment in public higher education and a decrease in upper administration. versities, if these universities in turn are to a concomitant increase in tuition. These are The Lincoln Project held regional meet- continue to underpin the economic and civ- in lockstep with each other: the progressive ings across the country, which produced ic health of the nation. Finally, this support increases in tuition, which public universi- some of our core conclusions. These include, must have access as an essential component. ties have vigorously fought to keep as mod- first and foremost, that state disinvestment est as possible, have been driven almost en- is a national phenomenon, and appears to be

14 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 humanities & education

Commission on Language Learning

The experience of bilingualism and multilingualism is normative in most countries around the world, but not in the United States.

cent in the most recent American Commu- “We cannot ensure that people will be em- nity Survey (acs) in 2015. In other words, pathetic, but we can ensure that they have 20 percent of the people of the United States the knowledge and experience they need to now indicate that a language other than En- be able to see the world as others see it.” The glish is spoken in their home. But the acs Heart of the Matter made a very strong case doesn’t ask how well they speak that other for the importance of the humanities in in- language, whether it be Chinese or Spanish ternational and multicultural contexts, and or German or Tagalog. It turns out that only it made a strong case in particular for lan- about half of that 20 percent speak a language acquisition. Based on the strength of guage other than English well. that Commission’s efforts, the American Most people in the United States who Academy received two letters in November Rubén G. Rumbaut speak a non-English language did not 2014 expressing a bipartisan request–from Rubén G. Rumbaut is Distinguished Professor of learn it in school. They are heritage learn- eight members of Congress, four each from Sociology at the University of California, Irvine. ers. They’re immigrants or children of im- the Senate and the House of Representa- He was elected a Fellow of the American Acad- migrants. The children of immigrants are tives–to undertake a new study of the na- losing that language, their home language, tion’s language education needs. The letters emy in 2015 and is a member of the Academy’s more rapidly than first generation immi- noted, “The ability to communicate in lan- Commission on Language Learning. grants–we can actually measure language guages other than English has never been death with survey methods. And so we have more important, given that American jobs he United States has acquired a well- American-born residents failing to acquire and exports are more dependent than ever T deserved but dubious reputation as a second-language skills through school, and on foreign markets. The American popula- language graveyard. No other country in the we have immigrants and children of immi- tion is increasingly multilingual, Americans world has received more multilingual peo- grants who are not retaining and passing on are more engaged, diplomatically and mil- ples, and yet in no other country has a switch their non-English language skills. The result itarily, around the globe than ever before, to monolingual English occurred as rapid- is a self-inflicted national disadvantage in and challenges like poverty and disease, ly as it has in the United States. There are, global business, in international diploma- and opportunities in scientific research and today, some six thousand languages in the cy and security, in the exchange in research technological innovation, all require inter- world, many of which are dying at a rapid and ideas, and in our ability to communi- national understanding and cooperation.” pace. There are roughly two hundred nation- cate with our own neighbors. They concluded by asking the Academy to states; so there are many more languages In 2013, the American Academy’s Com- provide answers to the following two broad in the world than there are states. The ex- mission on the Humanities and Social Sci- questions. First, how does language learn- perience of bilingualism and multilingual- ences released its report, The Heart of the ing influence economic growth, cultural di- ism is normative in most countries around Matter: The Humanities and Social Sciences plomacy, the productivity of future genera- the world, but not in the United States. Still, for a Vibrant, Competitive, and Secure Nation. tions, and the fulfillment of all Americans? as a result of an era of international migra- That report inspired a two-year campaign And second, what actions should the nation tion to the United States over the last sever- to support humanistic activity of all kinds, take to ensure excellence in all languages, al decades, the percentage of people in the in partnership with universities, learned so- as well as international education and re- United States who speak English-only has cieties, academic associations, and human- search, including how we may more effec- declined from about 90 percent in 1970, the ities councils across the country. Among its tively use current resources to advance lan- country’s linguistic nadir, to about 79 per- recommendations, the committee declared, guage attainment?

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 15 academy projects

In response to this request, the Acade- innovative ways to address outdated class- highlight eighteen different recommenda- my created the Commission on Language room resources and the diminishing supply tions in the final report, drawn from a list Learning, of which I am a part, currently of language teachers. Third, a subcommit- of more than sixty ideas discussed over the funded by the Andrew W. Mellon Founda- tee called “America in the World” is consid- past year and a half. They fall into five broad tion, the Henry Luce Foundation, and the ering how the development of more robust categories: recommendations for increas- Academy’s own New Initiatives Fund. It was language capabilities will make the United ing the teaching workforce; for streamlin- clear from the beginning that this Commis- States more effective, politically and eco- ing teaching and assessment across cities sion would capture some public excitement. nomically, in an international context. And and states; for encouraging heritage speak- The initial press release received more Web finally, the fourth subcommittee has been ers to flourish both in their heritage lan- hits and views than any other announce- charged with evaluating how enhanced languages and in English; for enhancing dual language learning opportunities for students who come from homes in which En- Monolingualism is a curable disease. But we cannot glish is the dominant language and for stu- wait until middle school or high school to attack it. dents who come from multilingual families; and for the effective deployment of technol- It is critical to start early; by age two or three, the ogy and digital resources in language learn- brain is generating trillions of new synapses, and ing. Not all eighteen ideas will be given equal weight in the final report. Some are language is acquired most easily during the first merely illustrative of broader themes, or are parts of a menu of possible responses to par- ten years of life. ticular challenges. I’ll briefly mention one recommendation. ment of an Academy project. The Acade- guage capacity contributes to a more wel- As the report will make clear, monolingual- my’s excellent staff, some of whom are here coming, productive, and peaceful society. ism is a curable disease. But we cannot wait today, continue to receive calls from philan- The Commission is now writing its final re- until middle school or high school to attack thropic, news, and professional organiza- port, which is scheduled for release in early it. It is critical to start early; by age two or tions, asking for details about publication 2017. Like the statistical portrait, it will be three, the brain is generating trillions of new dates. This public interest reflects both the published in both hard copy and electron- synapses, and language is acquired most easi- importance of the subject matter and the ic form, and will be distributed nationally. It ly during the first ten years of life. So one spe- timeliness of the forthcoming report. will also be supported by a busy schedule of cific recommendation is to begin language The Academy began to organize the Com- events across the country over a six-month learning as early as possible, not to wait until mission in 2015, first by soliciting a series period. We are also, naturally, considering it’s needlessly late, starting at a deficit. of white papers, four of which have been the translation of the executive summary The final report’s overarching argument published on the Commission’s website. into languages other than English. is clear: language learning is a vital part of The full Commission has now met three Throughout this process, the Commis- the American educational enterprise and times, in December 2015, February 2016, sion has been in contact with organizations is critical to the nation’s prosperity and se- and last June, and we will meet once more, and congressional offices both for advice curity, as well as to the success of commu- in November. In addition to full commit- and to ensure that the Commission’s initia- nities and the fulfillment of individuals in tee meetings, four subcommittees have met tives align with those of possible partners, the United States. Our challenge has been throughout the year. The research and data including the National Foreign Language to make the recommendations as strong as subcommittee, on which I serve, has devel- Center, the National Endowment for the possible, not only to outline a strategy to oped a short publication that provides a sta- Humanities, the Department of Education, improve language education in the United tistical overview of the United States’ cur- the National Humanities Alliance, Gallau- States, but to meet the urgent needs of our rent language capabilities. You can expect to det University, the British Academy, and the current moment in history. receive our published report in a few weeks. Yale Center for Language Study. At its most The technology subcommittee is looking for recent meeting, the Commission chose to

16 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 global security & international affairs

Global Security & International Affairs Committee on International Security Studies & The Global Nuclear Future

Many of the technologies associated with nuclear power are dual-use, meaning that they have direct weapons applications or implications. The spread of these technologies to new states can increase the risk that nuclear weapons will spread to new actors.

tee on International Security Studies (ciss) study of the security organization of what and then I will give a quick overview of one we call the post-Soviet space: the fifteen in- of our current projects, the Global Nuclear dependent states established in Eurasia fol- Future. For some six decades, the Academy, lowing the Soviet Union’s disintegration. through ciss, has played a prominent role How would that space be structured and or- in the international security debates in this ganized in a way that could produce stabili- country. In the late 1950s, under Academy ty and security? The provisional answer to- auspices, ciss generated the original work day is that the international community has Steven E. Miller that was absolutely formative in establish- failed in that particular exercise. Our late Steven E. Miller is Director of the International ing the notion of arms control as a useful in- colleague, John Steinbruner, with whom Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science strument of national policy. What started I had the privilege of being cochair of this and International Affairs at the Harvard Kenne- out in 1958 or 1959 as an interesting academ- committee, was a pioneer in champion- ic, experimental project would, fifteen years ing and exploring what you might call the dy School. He was elected a Fellow of the Amer- later, give rise to the first strategic arms con- governance and constraint of unregulated, ican Academy in 2006 and serves as Cochair of trol agreements between the Soviet Union dangerous technologies. He did work on bio the Academy’s Committee on International Se- and the United States. And over a four- warfare. He did work on the military uses of curity Studies and Codirector of the Academy’s decade period, we were able to put into place space. In the last phase of his life, just before Global Nuclear Future Initiative. He is a Mem- a set of negotiated structures that governed he fell so ill, we began to creep into the area ber of the Academy’s Council. and constrained the dangers of the nucle- of cyber warfare. How do you think about ar arms race between the Soviet Union and creating a governance mechanism that en- et me add my voice to those congratulat- the United States. You can trace the intel- ables us to exploit the benefits of these tech- L ing you. I would add that, if I extrapolate lectual origins of that whole exercise right nologies while avoiding or minimizing the from my own personal experience, what you back to the American Academy. During the adverse security consequences that might have in front of you is not only an honor, but a 1980s, the Academy was a key player in the flow from them? Earlier this year, the Acad- wonderful opportunity. Over the last twenty debate over ballistic missile defenses and emy published a volume, edited by Elisa years, a large portion of my own personal re- the reaction to President Reagan’s so-called Harris, on this subject, Governance of Dual- search agenda has been undertaken through star wars program. In the 1990s, prompted Use Technologies: Theory and Practice. and under the auspices of the American by the protracted crisis in the Balkans, the Turning from the past to the present, we Academy. It provides tremendous support. Academy did some very thoughtful and in- now have four projects underway: Under- It creates openings for both work and impact fluential work on issues of sovereignty and standing the New Nuclear Age; New Di- that wouldn’t otherwise exist. I would very intervention: under what circumstances lemmas in Ethics, Technology, and War; strongly encourage you to get involved in the and what cases are international actors en- Civil Wars, Violence, and International Academy’s projects and works and take ad- titled to intervene militarily in the affairs of Response; and the Global Nuclear Future, vantage of the support provided by its mem- individual states, in violation of the deeply which is our longest-standing active proj- bers, its governing bodies, and its staff. embedded norm of sovereignty. ect and which I will briefly introduce. I have two responsibilities here. First I will Another recent ciss project undertaken The Global Nuclear Future Initiative is briefly describe the history of the Commit- under Robert Legvold’s leadership was the looking at the global appetite for nuclear

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 17 academy projects

power and trying to assess and help con- with them. We’ve had meetings around the dual-use technologies that made the Iran strain the potential nuclear proliferation world. We’ve produced a number of publi- crisis so troublesome over the last dozen implications of the spread of nuclear pow- cations on topics from insider threats and years. You can do a similar kind of exegesis er. In the last decade, we have seen a tre- nuclear disarmament to used-fuel storage of the situation in Southeast Asia, a region mendous upsurge in the interest and the and nuclear liability. We’ve done extensive where there has been no nuclear power in pursuit of nuclear power. Some of this had work in places like Turkey, Abu Dhabi, and, the past but where there is widespread in- to do with triple-digit per-barrel fossil fuel to a lesser extent, Vietnam. terest in nuclear power today. So the future prices, which no longer exist. Some of it For several decades, we had a very sta- is not going to be like the past. The world is has to do with climate change. Some of it ble global nuclear order, consisting of thir- changing, and we’re trying to do something has to do with energy security and diver- ty nuclear power states and roughly 440 in- about it. sification of energy portfolios. But in plac- stalled reactors around the world. But in re- es as far flung as Vietnam, Indonesia, Ma- cent years, more than sixty additional states laysia, Turkey, Abu Dhabi, and Iran, we see have approached the International Atom- decisions already being taken and substan- ic Energy Agency and expressed a serious tial investments being made in the pursuit interest in pursuing nuclear power. Many of nuclear power, for the generation of nu- of those countries will never get very far clear electricity. But many of the technol- down the road toward nuclear power, but ogies associated with nuclear power are the so-called spearhead states are moving dual-use, meaning that they have direct ahead. Iran, for example, already has an op- weapons applications or implications. The erational reactor connected to the electric- spread of these technologies to new states ity grid and generating electricity. There

If these states are going to have nuclear power, whether we like it or not, how can we maximize the likelihood that they do so in a safe, secure, and proliferation-resistant way? can increase the risk that nuclear weapons are well-known worries about Iran’s possi- will spread to new actors. That’s generally ble interest in nuclear weapons, but what- regarded as undesirable. Certainly from the ever else Iran is doing, it is pursuing nuclear point of view of American security, that is electricity. It is the first new nuclear power undesirable. So how do we think about ad- state in the world in a quarter of a century. dressing this problem? Similarly, Abu Dhabi has four reactors un- We have focused this project on what we der construction. The first reactor will be call the nuclear newcomers, asking the ques- connected to the grid next year. Turkey has tion: if these states are going to have nucle- two large contracts, each for four reactors, ar power, whether we like it or not, how which may go into operation in the span of can we maximize the likelihood that they ten or twelve years. Saudi Arabia has a very do so in a safe, secure, and proliferation- ambitious medium-term program to build a resistant way? Part of the answer is by en- dozen or more nuclear power reactors, plus gaging with the scientific and political a declaratory policy of having all of rival communities in these countries, trying to Iran’s technology portfolio, meaning they build networks and share best practices claim to be pursuing exactly the worrisome

18 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 global security & international affairs

Understanding the New Nuclear Age

In the new nuclear order, the advance of nonnuclear weapons capable of attacking nuclear facilities, nuclear defenses, and their auxiliary components threatens the firebreak between conventional and nuclear war.

cating factor. Further, the determination of mensions together to develop a way of think- China, India, and Pakistan to create strategic ing about the whole–and to prod govern- nuclear triads–that is, nuclear weapons on ment and the broader expert community to land, at sea, and in the air–combined with begin doing the same. Then, ultimately, we commitments by Russia and the United will explore what can and should be done to States to modernize their existing triads, is deal with the overarching challenge, not mere- transforming the overall nuclear landscape ly the pieces of it, however important they are in substantial ways. The return to a compe- and however much expertise and experience Robert Legvold tition between offense and defense–missile we already have in addressing them. To pro- Robert Legvold is Marshall D. Shulman Profes- defense and the missiles to overwhelm it– ceed, we’ve assembled a working group of sor Emeritus in the Department of Political Sci- are adding to the upset, and this time in mul- some of the country’s most seasoned special- ence at Columbia University. He was elected a tiple forms, because India, China, and Paki- ists, who focus on different parts of the prob- stan are headed down the same route, with lem, and we’ve added to it a cohort of the Fellow of the American Academy in 2005 and the United States and Russia in the lead. brightest young members of the successor serves as Chair of the Academy’s project on Un- Another dimension of significant change generation. We have commissioned a num- derstanding the New Nuclear Age. in the new nuclear order is the advance of ber of papers to stimulate the group’s think- nonnuclear weapons capable of attacking ing, which will eventually be published as ei- t the end of the Cold War, attention nuclear facilities, nuclear defenses, and their ther a monograph series or as a book intend- A shifted from the threat of nuclear ar- auxiliary components, thereby threatening ed to serve as a first cut on the subject. That mageddon resulting from the aggression the firebreak between conventional and nu- is, the first effort to think about the new age of two nuclear superpowers to the prolifer- clear war. Growing cyber capabilities, when in its complexity and whole, rather than just ation of weapons of mass destruction, in- incorporated into nuclear war-fighting, are the composite parts. From there we’ll push the cluding nuclear weapons. In the process, also a fundamental threat to the premises analysis deeper, pursuing collaborations, both we stopped thinking about the complex dy- that underlie the notion of strategic stabili- here and abroad, that will allow some of these namic that was emerging among the nine ty, the concept that emerged from the Acad- ideas to begin gaining traction and, one hopes, nuclear powers–that is, what is today a emy’s arms control work in the 1950s. Fi- to shake audiences, beginning with policy- multipolar nuclear world as opposed to es- nally, thinking about nuclear weapons and makers, from their current complacency. sentially a bipolar nuclear world in the Cold their reasons for being has taken on an omi- In all of this we’re mindful that the fading War–and the challenges and the dangers nous quality, in all quarters: more countries fortunes of arms control, the worsening ten- that this new, multipolar world raises. are assigning these weapons deterrence sions between the United States and Russia, In this rapidly evolving new nuclear order, functions that go far beyond simple deter- and the risk that the U.S.-China relationship bilateral nuclear relationships, like that be- rence of a nuclear attack against them, while could veer toward a genuine strategic rival- tween Russia and the United States or India at the same time devising strategies for the ry, represents an inauspicious context for and Pakistan, are rapidly evolving into tri- use of these weapons in war. this work. But at the same time, never could lateral, or triangular, nuclear relationships. The purpose of the Understanding the New it be more important. Thank you. Here, the nuclear advances of China have Nuclear Age project is to bring all of these become an increasingly important compli- parts and the many increasingly complex di-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 19 academy projects

New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technology & War

nation, and here there are some very seri- on systems, might be applied to a humani- ous questions about the trade-off between tarian context. In what ways could they be justice, especially for the victims of war, used to aid humanitarians in their work? and peace. We saw this in action earlier this We also discussed ethical issues concerning week, with the failed referendum on the Co- taking testimony from refugees that might, lombian peace agreement. later on, be used to prosecute war criminals. The project exemplifies the ways in which Another strength of this project has been the Academy can bring together high-qual- that it has pushed just war theory forward ity scholarship and high-level policy out- by spotlighting the most common form of reach. One example is the Fall 2016 and war today, civil wars. Both modern just war Winter 2017 double issue of Dædalus pro- theory and also the modern body of multi- duced by this project. Following the pub- lateral treaties that make up the laws of war, lication of the first volume earlier this fall, like the Geneva Conventions, were creat- Scott Sagan, the project chair, and Jeffrey ed in an era when wars between states–in- Lewis condensed their essay into an op-ed terstate war–was the most common form for The Washington Post, in which they call of armed conflict. But that’s no longer the for a revision of U.S. nuclear targeting pol- case. Today we’re much more likely to see Tanisha Fazal icy to conform to the laws of war, including wars within states. One of the essays to be Tanisha Fazal is Associate Professor of Politi- a commitment not to use nuclear weapons published in the second Dædalus volume cal Science and Peace Studies at the University against any target that could be reliably de- this January is Allen Weiner’s legal analysis of Notre Dame. She is a Member of the Steering stroyed by conventional weapons. arguing that there are certain conditions un- Committee of the Academy’s New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technology, and War project. The political aims of different rebel groups condition how they fight and their relationship with the laws want to add my congratulations to this I year’s new inductees to the Academy, on of war. . . . My research shows that secessionists, behalf of those of us who would one day like to be on that side of the table. I’m delight- for example, are significantly less likely to target ed to be here today to talk to you about this civilians than other types of rebel groups. project on New Dilemmas in Ethics, Tech- nology, and War. At the heart of this project is the ongoing adaptation of what is called Another example of our project’s mar- der which soldiers from rebel groups ought “just war theory” to a new and changing in- riage of high-quality scholarship and policy to be accorded the rights and privileges of ternational landscape, driven in part by new outreach is the set of briefings that several lawful combatants, including prisoner- weapon systems and technologies. Just war of us, including myself, presented this past of-war status. My own contribution, also theory is not just about war, but is about a May in Geneva. We were principally talking out in January, reverses the lens and looks set of ethical questions around the com- to the United Nations High Commission on at the laws of war from the perspective of mencement, conduct, and conclusion of Refugees (unhcr), and I have to say this rebel groups. My basic argument is that the war, including the peace (or not) that fol- was a really exciting opportunity, but was political aims of different rebel groups con- lows. Are there conditions under which also very challenging, because none of us dition how they fight and their relationship it is morally defensible to actually engage in our contributions, or really in our own with the laws of war. In particular, I look at in war? What are the moral obligations of research, were directly addressing ques- secessionist rebel groups–groups that want powers that take prisoners of war? There’s tions concerning refugees. And so we were their own independent, internationally rec- a relatively new segment of just war theory forced to think about how new technologies ognized state–and argue that, because they that is talking about the ethics of war termi- of war, like drones and autonomous weap- seek membership to the club of states, they

20 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 global security & international affairs

Civil Wars, Violence, and International Responses

want to send signals of being good and ca- attributable to domestic factors or inter- pable members of the international com- national factors? What threats–new and munity, including by being better abiders old–emanate from civil wars and collapsed of the laws of war than rebel groups with states, and when and how do they jeopar- other types of political aims, such as over- dize U.S. and global security? Under what throwing the central government. My re- conditions should the international com- search shows that secessionists, for exam- munity cooperate with authoritarian re- ple, are significantly less likely to target ci- gimes to facilitate a peaceful transition to vilians than other types of rebel groups. And democracy, or at least to stability and re- not only are they better behaved than oth- duced levels of violence? And what are the er types of rebel groups, but they also tend policy options available to the international to publicize this behavior, oftentimes con- community to deal with these threats? Sig- trasting it with the behavior of the govern- nificantly, we have found that cooperation ments against which they’re fighting, who with other great powers has become more are, very frequently, very badly behaved. problematic in this new era. Finally, let me mention that these Dædalus Some of the highlights of our study: First, issues bring in new perspectives on just war following World War II, colonial wars de- theory from not just political scientists and Karl W. Eikenberry clined in frequency as new states emerged, moral philosophers, but from other disci- Karl W. Eikenberry is the Oksenberg-Rohlen Fel- becoming virtually extinct in 1975. Since plines. There’s a terrific essay by Paul Wise, low and Director of the U.S.-Asia Security Ini- 1946, interstate warfare has also followed a pediatrician, who argues that we have to tiative at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research a general trend of decline, becoming quite consider the long-term health impact of rare by about 2005. But over this same pe- Center at Stanford University. He is the former war in order to be able to evaluate the con- riod, civil wars have persisted, more than United States Ambassador to Afghanistan and ditions under which it is or can ever be just. doubling in frequency and increasing in du- a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General. He And with that mention of Paul Wise’s es- ration. So this study on civil wars and in- was elected a Fellow of the American Academy say, I’m going to turn the baton over to Karl trastate violence is examining what is the Eikenberry, who leads a project that both in 2012 and serves as Cochair of the Academy’s dominant form of global conflict in the ear- Paul Wise and I are also a part of. project on Civil Wars, Violence, and Interna- ly twenty-first century. tional Responses. Second, concerning the threats posed by civil wars and intrastate violence. While a ’m pleased to introduce a new Academy point of debate within our research group, I project that I lead with Stanford Universi- it seems that the severity and complexity ty professor and American Academy Fellow of threats to the United States and to glob- Stephen Krasner: Civil Wars, Violence, and al security emanating from countries suffer- International Responses. After 9/11, I ending from civil wars are increasing. Threats ed up serving most of the first decade of this caused or encouraged by civil wars include century in Afghanistan, or at nato Head- terrorist organizations with internation- quarters in Brussels, working on issues real ideological appeal and territorial ambi- lated to Afghanistan. The conflict has been a tions, like isis; proxy wars being fought protracted war, with many disappointments by regional powers, such as in Syria, where along the way. My experiences served as a Russia, Iran, Turkey, the United States, and personal inspiration to work with the Acad- Saudi Arabia have already been drawn in; emy and colead this enterprise on civil wars. criminality, such as in Afghanistan, which We are addressing four overarching ques- accounts for 90 percent of the world’s pop- tions. What is the scope of internal conflicts py production; massive flows of refugees and civil wars, and to what extent are they and migrants, which have clearly influ-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 21 academy projects

Threats caused or publication of the Dædalus volumes and subsequent outreach activity. Our hope is encouraged by civil that through this effort, we will produce useful analysis and recommendations for wars include terrorist the policy community in the United States organizations with and abroad, improving responses to civil wars. We are hopeful that we will foster international ideological debate and encourage young scholars from appeal and territorial nonwestern countries to participate in efforts to design more sustainable conflict ambitions; proxy wars prevention policies. And we are hopeful we being fought by regional can serve as a bridge between the Academy and the policy community. powers; criminality; massive flows of refugees and migrants; and pandemics. enced domestic politics in Europe and the United States; and, finally, the potential for pandemics to emerge from regions characterized by a complete breakdown of internal control. Our project features thirty-five participants from universities, think-tanks, the media, ngos, government, and the military in the United States and in Belgium, Colombia, Ethiopia, Germany, Norway, Sri Lanka, and the United Kingdom. Our efforts will build toward the publication of two volumes of Dædalus, the first in the fall of 2017 on why ending civil wars and state disorder is so difficult, the second in the winter of 2018 on the risks emanating from civil wars and policy prescriptions that address them. These publications will be followed by active outreach efforts with policy officials in Washington, D.C., the host institutions of our authors, international organizations in Europe, Africa, and North and South Amer- ica, the media, and, of course, the Academy. These efforts will lead to the publication of what we call an occasional paper, which will draw on what we learned during the

22 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 science, engineering & technology

Science, Engineering & Technology New Models for U.S. Science and Technology Policy

In approximately six years, China is projected to outspend the United States in research and development, both in absolute terms and relative to the size of their economy. We risk losing America’s long-held advantage as an engine of innovation that generates new knowledge and products, as well as new jobs and industries.

and technology are at a critical inflection rank seventeenth in reading, twentieth in point, and that the decisions of policy-mak- science, and twenty-seventh in math. As a ers and leaders over the next few years will country, we are seventh in the world in ba- determine the trajectory of American inno- sic research investment, and over the past vation for many years to come. twenty years we have dropped from first to Nancy C. Andrews In the words of project cochair Norman tenth place in total research and develop- Nancy C. Andrews is Dean of the Duke Univer- Augustine, “We must start to think about ment investment as a percentage of gdp. As sity School of Medicine and Vice Chancellor for our future if we hope to have a future.” The our investment in research has languished, Academic Affairs. She is also the Nanaline H. benefits of investing in science and engi- other countries have recognized how vital neering research are evident in each of our a strong research enterprise is for econom- Duke Professor of Pediatrics and Professor in the lives. Our life expectancy is nearly twice ic growth and for the quality of life of their Department of Pharmacology and Cancer Biol- that of our grandparents, largely due to vic- citizens. They’re using our playbook, emu- ogy. She was elected a Fellow of the American tories over devastating infectious diseases, lating our twentieth-century commitment Academy in 2007 and serves as a Member of the supported by curiosity-driven research. And to basic research, and in approximately six Academy’s Board of Directors. She is a Commit- while new diseases continuously appear, years, China is projected to outspend the tee Member for the New Models for U.S. Science conditions like cancer and coronary artery United States in research and development, and Technology Policy study. disease are much less likely to be lethal than both in absolute terms and relative to the they were a generation ago. We carry devic- size of their economy. We risk losing Amer- ’m going to talk about a somewhat more es in our pockets–and I’m sure some peo- ica’s long-held advantage as an engine of in- Imature project than those described so ple are looking at them right now–that not novation that generates new knowledge and far, the New Models for U.S. Science and only let us communicate with each oth- products, as well as new jobs and industries. Technology Policy study. This project pro- er from almost any place on earth, but can Our project committee and the American duced the 2014 report Restoring the Founda- instantly provide more information than a Academy staff have worked hard to bring tion: The Vital Role of Research in Preserving the library. One point the report makes is that this message to key decision-makers, in- American Dream. Restoring the Foundation in- smartphones represent the convergence of cluding academic leaders, faculty, students, cludes three prescriptions, which, broadly multiple lines of basic, publicly supported business ceos, and members of Congress. speaking, address the facts that innovation investigation. The past seventy years of re- In the two years since the report was pub- requires sustainable funding and long-range search and innovation have also provided lished, the Academy has organized dozens planning, that current policy and practices enormous economic benefit through new of meetings across the nation, and we have actually impede productivity and impact, efficiencies, new businesses, and new ca- distributed twelve thousand copies of the and that we need a strong ecosystem, in- reers. But America’s future does not look report. These meetings have included pre- cluding a new government-university-in- as bright. We can no longer claim preemi- sentations in our nation’s capital. Commit- dustry partnership. Restoring the Foundation nence in many of the areas that we’ve tak- tee members have been invited to present asserts that American science, engineering, en for granted. Internationally, our students the report at professional society meetings

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 23 academy projects

The Academy is not content simply to publish policy recommendations and hope that they’ll be adopted. Rather, we actively engage the key partners and target audiences that will be needed to implement our ideas. and to federal agencies. We’ve participated ing the value of peer review. The bill passed in over 150 meetings with members of Con- out of the committee on a voice vote, and is gress and their staff, including two Congres- awaiting action by the full Senate. sional briefings. And we were invited to tes- It’s gratifying that so many other organi- tify twice in front of the Senate Committee zations have joined the Academy in raising on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, the visibility of the Restoring the Foundation which authorizes research funding for the report over the last two years. The Academy nsf, the nist, the dod Office of Science, will continue to work with partners in years and nasa. ahead to bring greater visibility to key policy Restoring the Foundation also inspired a issues pertaining to research, both in Wash- statement from ten American business lead- ington and across the nation. As just one ex- ers called “Innovation: An American Im- ample–and I hope some of the Academy’s perative.” The statement calls for Congress new members might be interested in this– to take seven actions to strengthen Ameri- we’re launching an effort to recruit addi- can research, including five recommenda- tional business leaders and public figures tions from the Academy’s report. Signato- from outside of the research community to ries include the ceos or chairmen of Lock- speak publicly about the importance of in- heed Martin, Boeing, John Deere, Northrop vesting in basic research, and to lend their Grumman, Merck, Novartis, Microsoft, as voices to the Innovation Imperative effort. well as the National Association of Manu- All of this activity, I hope, will demonstrate facturers. The statement has now been en- to you that the Academy is not content sim- dorsed by over five hundred companies, ply to publish policy recommendations and universities, and professional societies from hope that they’ll be adopted. Rather, we ac- across America, including at least one from tively engage the key partners and target each of the fifty states. The Academy and its audiences that will be needed to implement partners issued a report card this past sum- our ideas. mer on the one-year anniversary of the release of “Innovation: An American Imper- ative.” One of the seven actions has already been implemented: Congress made perma- nent a strengthened r&d tax credit at the end of last year. Recently, the Senate Com- merce Committee introduced a bill called the American Innovation and Competitive- ness Act, which includes several other of our recommendations, such as reducing paper- work burdens on researchers and reaffirm-

24 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 science, engineering & technology

The Public Face of Science

whether some childhood vaccines should be literacy, in fact, is not the driver of public at- required. What this shows is that the public titudes or the way in which science is used. either doesn’t fully understand what science So these working groups will convene to is showing or doesn’t accept science or the discuss best practices for scientific journals scientific consensus. This is a difficult con- and public affairs offices and will help concept for scientists. We all believe that if we nect Academy members with engagement ignore, distort, or in some way abuse scien- opportunities with nonscientific audienc- tific evidence, we’ll be struck by lightning. es. The third piece of the project focuses on The public, of course, can ignore or distort how science is used to inform specific cat- scientific facts at will, with relatively few egories of policy and action. For example, short-term consequences. And so the is- working with Academy Fellows Shari Dia- sue here is not whether the public likes or mond and Richard Lempert, scientists and appreciates science, or even, at times, un- legal experts will examine the barriers to derstands what the science is showing, but effective engagement between science and whether the public accepts science–and the legal system. We are currently surveying what to do about it. Academy members about their own experi- Alan I. Leshner We scientists believe that if we ignore, distort, or in Alan I. Leshner is CEO Emeritus of the Ameri- can Association for the Advancement of Science. some way abuse scientific evidence, we’ll be struck He was elected a Fellow of the American Acad- by lightning. The public, of course, can ignore or emy in 2005. He is an Advisor to the Academy’s project on the Public Face of Science. distort scientific facts at will, with relatively few short-term consequences. ’m going to speak today about a relative- I ly new Academy project, which began This study itself comprises three different ences with the legal system, which will in- just last spring. Over the next three years, pieces. The first concerns trust and percep- form a contribution in an issue of Dædalus the Public Face of Science project will try to tion. We are working with a data advisory devoted to the topic of science and the legal understand the factors that shape the pub- group to prepare a benchmark publication system. We will also look toward how scien- lic’s attitudes toward science and the ways featuring data related to public attitudes on tific expertise could be more effectively em- in which the public uses science. The di- science and the nature and outcomes of sci- ployed in response to crises, especially natu- verse project committee is led by Richard ence engagement experiences. And we are ral disasters. Led by Gary Machlis, Rita Col- Meserve and Geneva Overholser, who un- forming new hypotheses to explain emerg- well, and Kristin Ludwig, we will convene a fortunately could not be here today. What ing trends in the public’s perception of sci- high-level meeting with communication ex- actually inspired this study, in part, is the ence, while also developing an agenda for perts, crisis managers, and scientific leaders disconnect between the public’s great re- generating new data. The second piece will to develop best practices for involving sci- gard for science and technology, and the dis- focus on public and media engagement. entists in disaster response, which will be continuity between what scientists and the This includes convening both a public en- published in a benchmark white paper. public believe about an array of critical is- gagement working group and a journalism Through this quick summary, you can see sues. For example, 37 percent of U.S. adults working group. I was fortunate to attend an that the common objective of these three believe it’s safe to eat genetically modi- Academy meeting in June that brought to- pieces is to build a clearer understanding of fied foods, whereas 88 percent of the sci- gether a large number of people working public interactions with science, technolo- entific community believegmo foods are around science, communication, and the gy, and medicine by exploring the broader safe. There are similar disconnects about use of science information. Among other social contexts that shape how the public whether humans have evolved over time, or things, the meeting emphasized that science uses and considers scientific information.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 25 academy projects

American Institutions

I invite you and encourage you to partici- a new effort on the civic education of fu- pate in any way you can. There will be a se- ture generations of citizens in this country. ries of discussions launched with Fellows There’s ample evidence that young people across the country and, frankly, the Acade- today are often ill-educated in what we used my hopes to exploit all of you to get a better to call civics: knowledge about our system handle on this topic that has long confound- of government and how to be a responsible ed scientists. citizen of our democracy. As the Academy’s recent projects in the humanities and the education and sciences have suggested, the preparation of American citizens is a lifelong endeavor. We’re all increasingly aware of the importance of lifelong learning, not simply an educational system that pays attention solely to K-12 or even postgraduate degree training. Keeping citizens well-prepared is a moving target, as is, of course, technology and culture change. Nannerl O. Keohane Now, the founders of the American Acad- Nannerl O. Keohane is a Senior Scholar at the emy, about whom you will hear a lot this af- University Center for Human Values at Prince- ternoon, understood both the importance ton University. She served as President of Welles- and some of the difficulties of lifelong education, and they created the Academy partly ley College and of Duke University. She was to address this need. First, they encouraged elected a Fellow of the American Academy in the creation and sharing of new knowledge 1991 and serves as a Member of the Academy’s for a new republic, but second, they orga- Board of Directors. nized the Academy deliberately as a stew- ard of the intellectual life in America more ’m delighted to welcome all the members generally. “The end and design of the Acad- I of this very distinguished assembly. It’s a emy,” they wrote in the 1780 charter, “is to great pleasure to share news of some of the cultivate every art and science which may work of the Academy, and as you’ve heard, tend to advance the interest, honor, digni- we hope that you will want to become in- ty, and happiness of a free, independent, and volved. I’m going to give a report, very brief- virtuous people.” That objective is our fun- ly, on one of our program areas and some damental mission. Trying to ensure that all of our priorities for the years immediately participants in the American experiment, ahead (in an area we call American Insti- young and old alike, will be well-prepared. tutions). I’m sure you’ll agree that that fo- The Academy will soon consider a variety cus is warranted, given the current concern of projects that would return to these roots. about the health and functioning of a num- A commission on K-12 education, perhaps. ber of our national institutions, both public The study of particular institutions like our and private. There’s an overlap with some legal system, which Chief Judge Wood will of the other things you’ve heard–public discuss in a moment. These build on past research universities, research investment. work. For example, the recent Dædalus is- But to provide just one other example, for a sues on mass incarceration and immigra- variety of reasons, a number of members of tion, as well as a 2013 issue on American in- the Academy have encouraged us to launch stitutions and the common good. So stay

26 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 american institutions

A great deal has changed for women and for men since 1987, and we think it’s high time to revisit this topic. . . . Understanding global feminism in the broadest sense is what we have in mind. tuned for future projects with the same ba- ica. It included a path-breaking essay by Al- sic aim, and please do share with us your ice S. Rossi that some of you may have heard own ideas for these programs. It’s partic- of, “An Immodest Proposal,” which became ularly important because the projects that a classic in the field. But a great deal has I’ve just described, and others yet to be en- changed for women and for men since 1987, visioned, will help build to our 250th an- and we think it’s high time to revisit this niversary in 2030, which will be an auspi- topic. Frances and I will work closely with cious time to renew our commitment to our Eliza Berg and Francesca Giovannini of the founding principles. Academy staff, and we hope that the meet- I want to mention briefly a brand-new ing will lead to a larger project that will help project that will address another critical so- us understand the factors that have allowed cial issue from a slightly different angle. In women to achieve virtual equality in some early December, the Academy will convene domains, but remain considerably less than an exploratory meeting. That’s the low- equal in others, and also some of the factors est level of our projects, from exploratory that make crucial life circumstances so dif- meetings through major projects through ferent for women in different parts of the commissions. Our task in that exploratory world, including education, health, access meeting is to have a number of scholars and to resources, experience in marriage, oppor- policy-makers come together to assess the tunities for leadership. Understanding glob- current state of knowledge in the social sci- al feminism in the broadest sense is what ences about the situation of women around we have in mind. This project will draw on the world. We’ll also explore the contem- multiple disciplines, and we will learn from porary debate on issues relating to gender women around the world and hope to bring equality and feminism, and then we’ll dis- together a rich perspective. cuss what role the Academy might play in encouraging the advancement of knowledge about the situation of women around the world, and clarifying and strengthening the debate about the future of women today in all the parts of the world. I’ll be cochair- ing this meeting with Frances Rosenbluth, professor of political science at Yale and a member of the Academy Council. This will be the first time that the Acad- emy has addressed gender issues in several decades. There was an issue of Dædalus in 1987 entitled Learning about Women, Gender, Politics, and Power, and one earlier issue of Dædalus in 1964 called The Woman in Amer-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 27 academy projects

Making Justice Accessible

erally chartered agency, the Legal Services is $385 million a year for the entire coun- Corporation (lsc), dedicated to providing try, represents less than half of its original access to legal counsel, in addition to many appropriation in 1970. I’ll just give you one state-level institutions. These advocates sim- comparison that the president of the Legal ply do not have the resources to serve every Services Corporation–a man by the name qualified person and, in fact, something on of Jim Sandman–likes to give in his speech- the order of four out of five eligible low-in- es, because it will appall you. Every year at come Americans are not getting assistance Halloween time, Americans spend more on through these programs. So millions of costumes for their pets than we spend on Americans are navigating an intimidating, the Legal Services Corporation. Never mind confusing, and complicated legal process your kids; it’s the cat. I say this as a cat-lov- without the assistance of a legal professional. er, by the way.

In a report to the chief judge of New York in 2010, a task force to expand access to civil legal services Diane P. Wood noted that 99 percent of tenants are unrepresented Diane P. Wood is the Chief Judge of the Unit- in eviction cases, 99 percent of borrowers in ed States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Cir- consumer credit cases are unrepresented, and cuit and a Senior Lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School. She was elected a Fellow 97 percent of parents are unrepresented in child of the American Academy in 2004. She serves support matters. as the Chair of the Academy’s Council, the Vice Chair of the Academy’s Board of Directors, and What do we mean when we say civil? We The resources are simply inadequate, and a Member of the Academy’s Trust. mean the person whose landlord is going to the effects are immediately recognizable. In evict her. We mean the person whose mort- Massachusetts, where we happen to be right his project deals with access to justice gage is going to be foreclosed. We might now, 64 percent of eligible residents were Tin our country–justice in many forms. mean the person who bought a product that turned away, and that may be a rosy picture, Each year, millions of Americans are unable just didn’t work, and who would like to re- because here the state actually throws in to afford a lawyer for cases brought forth in turn it to the store. Or a person who is being some resources to help. Many people don’t the civil courts. The situation on the criminal hounded by a debt collector despite having realize that their problem is a legal problem side is, perhaps surprisingly, not much bet- made a payment the previous month. We and that they might be able to get some as- ter. But these problems are sufficiently dif- mean the victims of domestic violence. Civ- sistance for it, as in the case of a family being ferent not to fit into this project’s purview. il courts deal with all sorts of issues of great evicted from their apartment. In a report to Reflecting this, I’m going to focus our dis- importance to our society. the chief judge of New York in 2010, a task cussion today primarily on the civil courts. So we recognize the dangers of a legal sys- force to expand access to civil legal services In 2014, which is the last year for which tem built on the user-pays model, which is noted that 99 percent of tenants are unrep- census data were available, sixty-three mil- what we have on the civil side. The feder- resented in eviction cases, 99 percent of bor- lion Americans were at 125 percent of the fed- al government created the Legal Services rowers in consumer credit cases are unrep- eral poverty line or lower. That means, give Corporation in 1974 to help ensure equal ac- resented, and 97 percent of parents are un- or take, $30,000 a year for a family of four. cess to justice, but the lsc is overwhelmed represented in child support matters. That’s At current funding levels, these Americans by the amount of need, and congressional in New York City. These local statistics are are not obtaining lawyers for civil court cas- funding is at an all-time low. Adjusted for gathered at the behest of the local courts es. That’s despite the fact that we have a fed- inflation, thelsc ’s current budget, which or various ngos. The data are quite spotty,

28 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 american institutions

The federal government created the Legal Services Corporation in 1974 to help ensure equal access to justice, but the LSC is overwhelmed by the amount of need, and congressional funding is at an all-time low. and aren’t uniform across states. So it’s very research agenda. Our group, with the Acad- difficult to see what’s going on at the nation- emy’s help, is investigating what funding al level. What data we do have are often un- sources and potential partners are out there, reliable and fall short of enabling more than what the obstacles to further research are, surface-level analysis of this giant problem. what is possible with the resources we now This finding was echoed by a White House have, and what data need to be collected. legal aid interagency roundtable. Further, we are organizing–this is a com- On November 11 and 12, 2015, just about mon theme you’ve heard this morning–an a year ago, the American Academy hosted a issue of Dædalus on this topic, which will be very successful symposium on the state of edited by four leading experts on the issue: legal services for low-income Americans. David Tatel, who is a judge on the United This symposium was organized by a small States Court of Appeals for the District of committee led by John Levi, an Academy Columbia Circuit; Lance Liebman, profes- Fellow and chair of the board of the Legal sor and former dean of the Columbia Law Services Corporation, and it was sponsored School; Rebecca Sandefur, whom I men- by the Academy’s Exploratory Fund, which tioned a minute ago, professor of sociology has been a wonderfully flexible tool to try at the University of Illinois; and Lincoln Ca- out and develop an idea and see if there is plan, who’s a visiting lecturer at Yale. This potential for further study and Academy will be another way in which we will get involvement. At a minimum, the fund has the word out and try to take advantage of brought together Academy Fellows and oth- the Academy’s convening capabilities. The er experts across disciplines to discuss prob- Academy isn’t just one little narrow group lems of shared interest. Our meeting includ- of lawyers or social scientists, but a diverse ed federal and state judges, legal scholars, group of people who can think sensibly and legal-services providers. Those present about the scope of this problem, the costs quickly reached the conclusion that this is of not solving it, and what might be done. a social problem of the highest magnitude, The final thing I will say is that the Academy demanding a country-wide social and po- has often served as a catalyst for a national litical response. The symposium also con- discussion about issues. That’s exactly what cluded that we could not think sensibly happened with our Heart of the Matter report about the topic until we knew what data we on the humanities and social sciences. And have, what they cover, what data we’re lack- as the Academy approaches its 250th birth- ing, and how to go about getting the missing day, this project may very well help shape a information. So with realistic expectations, national conversation. we launched a data collection project. And that is, in fact, where we are now. Mark Hansen and Rebecca Sandefur are the chairs of the project and are working to set a

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 29 academy projects

Exploratory Projects The Future of Jazz in American Life

This music that originated in America has become a truly global art form. But the soil it grew in is being depleted.

in 1974. So that put a cricket in my brain, and it rested there until Academy President Jonathan Fanton proposed the exploratory grant mechanism, and right away the cricket started to chirp. Wouldn’t it be interesting to have the Academy review the vitality, the vulnerability, and the fragility of this truly American art form? And so I got together with William Da- mon, a jazz buff buddy of mine who had just been inducted, and we applied for the grant Felton Earls Jonathan had announced. We wrote a letter, Felton Earls is Professor of Human Behavior saying we’d like to convene a group of pro- and Development, Emeritus, at the Harvard fessors and performers and people interest- T. H. Chan School of Public Health, as well as ed in the marketing of jazz–to get an eclec- tic group around the table to think through Professor of Social Medicine, Emeritus, at Har- the vitality of this music in contrast with its vard Medical School. He was elected a Fellow of vulnerability in the market. Jazz, over the the American Academy in 1993. last thirty years, has gone beyond Europe and Africa, and is having quite an impact ’d like to be a little autobiographical internationally, in Korea, Japan, and Chi- I about this. I grew up in the shadow of jazz na, among other places. So this music that in New Orleans. In 1963, I joined a group of originated in America has become a truly senior undergraduate students at my uni- global art form. But the soil it grew in is be- versity, Howard University, and went to the ing depleted. So we convened the meeting dean of the music school, whose name was last May, and as a result, Gerald Early from Warner Lawson, and proposed to him that Washington University in St. Louis and In- we–the university–grant Duke Ellington grid Monson from Harvard, two professors an honorary degree that year. Much to our of music and art, have agreed to put togeth- surprise, Dean Lawson said that he would er a volume of Dædalus on the future of jazz. not consider that, because jazz, even with What the Exploratory Fund has allowed a distinguished composer like Duke Elling- me to do, living in the shadow of jazz all ton, was a degenerate form of music; that these years, is to plant this seed. I think that only spirituals had the integrity and the mu- the Dædalus volume will be a great opportu- sicality of something that deserved an hon- nity to enrich the environment, to move the orary degree. And so it came as a great sur- Academy a step closer to representing jazz prise to me, in 1993, thirty years later, when as an art form that is uniquely American in I was inducted into the Academy, to find its origin and global in its influence. out that Ellington had been inaugurated as a Fellow in 1970, four years before he died

30 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 exploratory projects

Preserving Intellectual Legacies in a Digital Age

We now have what we call digital natives: children who learned to play on screens before they learned to read. We also have digitally born documents that left no trace on paper whatsoever. The conjunction of these two is pointing us toward a future in which the dangers of nonpreservation are tremendous.

I’ll give you a rapid-fire version of some in our communication systems so that digi- of our prophecies of doom and some of our tal ephemera will be saved for the use of fu- suggestions in response. One speaker, Abby ture generations. Mahadev Satyanarayanan, Smith Rumsey–former program manag- the professor of computer science at Carne- er at the Library of Congress–reminded gie Mellon known for developing Dropbox us that 80 percent of silent films have just and the so-called Internet of Things, which disappeared. We have no record whatsoev- is a fascinating topic, emphasized the im- Robert Darnton er of this major art form. I don’t know how portance of one poorly understood aspect Robert Darnton is the former Carl H. Pforzhei- many jazz performances have been lost, but of preservation: not just the preservation mer University Professor and Director of the I would think the great majority have also of hardware and software, but the preserva- University Library at Harvard University. He vanished into the air. Movies and videos tion of what he called software executabili- continue to be lost, in part because the Li- ty. That is, the necessity of developing tech- was elected a Fellow of the American Academy brary of Congress does not require that cop- nology to ensure that software that has been in 1980. ies of them be deposited in its archives. All preserved for the future will actually func- sorts of commercial companies now pro- tion as it did in the past, which requires a would like to offer a few words on an Ex- vide cultural content without even giving very difficult process of aligning all sorts of I ploratory Fund project entitled “Preserv- a thought to the preservation of that con- moveable, digital parts. And as if that were ing Intellectual Legacies in a Digital Age.” tent. We need to make the Library of Con- not difficult enough, Kenneth Prewitt, for- Twenty-six participants met here at the gress an obligatory deposit library for dig- mer director of the U.S. Census Bureau who Academy on September 23. We sat around ital works in all formats, Abby Smith Rum- is now a professor at Columbia, remind- a donut-shaped table in the other room sey concluded. ed us that a great deal of this technology, and talked and talked. People came from Another speaker, Jonathan Zittrain, a proof course, depends on algorithms that are many different disciplines, and they all ad- fessor of law at Harvard and also the Har- trade secrets. dressed the same problem, which all of you, vard Law librarian, offered an equally chill- By this time, the mood in our group was I’m sure, have thought about: how to pre- ing reminder. Seventy-five percent of the shifting toward disconsolate pessimism, but serve digital material now that we are deep articles in the Harvard Law Review are inac- there were optimistic moments, which I’ll in the digital age. You might ask, how deep? cessible online because of link rot. He fa- mention very quickly. Brewster Kahle, the Well, we now have what we call digital na- vors some kind of compulsory licensing head of the Internet Archive, set a positive tives. That is, children who learned to play that would provide for preservation. A third tone through a rousing talk at a dinner be- on screens before they learned to read. We speaker, Dan Cohen, who is the executive di- fore the workshop met the following day. He also have digitally born documents, which rector of the Digital Public Library of Amer- represents what you could call seat-of-the- left no trace on paper whatsoever. The con- ica, concurred. Facebook, he remarked, now pants pragmatism. A great representative of junction of these two, I think, is pointing produces the largest amount of data among the mit ethos, he says, “just do it.” The idea us toward a future in which the dangers of all companies, yet it does nothing whatsoev- is to jump in, to take risks, to try out solu- nonpreservation are tremendous, for our- er to preserve the material. He argued that tions, weed out the failures, and keep what selves today, but also for future generations. we need to develop a default to preservation works. That sounded pretty good. Then the

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 31 academy projects

Preserving Cultural Heritage

poet Robert Pinsky expressed the pessimis- tiaircraft and tank fire before being blown tic outlook the following day. “We can learn up by dynamite. Neither a meeting between to succeed in creating works,” he said, being the Taliban foreign minister and the Sec- a great creator himself, “but we can’t wrap retary General of the United Nations, Kofi our minds around the problem of preserv- Annan, nor the statues’ inscription on the ing them.” “What does a hog know about unesco World Heritage Site list could pre- bacon?” he asked. Well, that left us really vent their destruction. uncomfortable. The Great Mosque of Aleppo was built be- Then the discussion shifted to the theme tween the eleventh and fourteenth centuries of accessibility, even in the present, as well on the site of the former agora of the Helle- as the future. Mike Furlough, the executive nistic period–and purports to contain the director of the digital library HathiTrust, remains of Zechariah, the father of John the challenged the notion–and I think it’s a Baptist. In April 2013, for unclear reasons, its very widespread illusion–that everything minaret was destroyed, some say by Syrian is, or soon will be, available online. It’s abso- rebels, others say by the Syrian Army. Both lutely false. Although HathiTrust’s gigantic the mosque and the minaret were inscribed preservation repository contains thirteen as an unesco World Heritage Site, though, million digitized volumes, deposited by 115 James Cuno again, this did not preserve them. institutions, it lacks an enormous amount James Cuno is President and CEO of the J. Paul On February 26, 2015, isis released a vid- of material that belongs to this famous cat- Getty Trust. Elected a Fellow of the American eo showing its fighters attacking and de- egory you keep hearing about, the unknown Academy in 2001, he serves as the Internation- stroying statues and artifacts in Mosul, Iraq, unknown. So, he argued, we should develop dating from the Assyrian and Akkadian em- al Secretary of the Academy and is a Member of a strategy for assessing what we have failed pires from the eleventh to eighth centuries the Academy’s Council. to preserve nationwide, and how we should bc. The isis attackers justified their actions make it accessible. Pamela Samuelson, Car- by referencing the Prophet Muhammad’s la Hesse, and Molly Shaffer Van Houweling, should say that the meeting I am about to destruction of idols in Mecca, arguing that all from the University of California, Berke- I describe was born from a conversation if God ordered the removal of these statues ley, discussed the ways copyright laws pre- that Jonathan and I had after a panel discus- and idols, these artifacts become worth- vent that kind of access, including access to sion just like this, one year ago. So I encour- less to us. In response to these and similar most of the books published in the last cen- age you to follow through on your own in- attacks, the un Security Council adopted tury. They advocated changes in copyright, terests, or interests that may develop from eight resolutions affirming the sovereign- such as a provision for authors to dissemi- today’s meeting. ty and territorial integrity of Syria and Iraq, nate their own work if it is no longer being On February 26, 2001, the Taliban lead- and condemned isis and its destruction of sold by publishers. The workshop was actu- er Mullah Mohammed Omar called for the cultural heritage. On May 28, 2015, the un ally inspired, in large part, by Pamela Sam- destruction of all statues of non-Islamic General Assembly unanimously adopted a uelson and Carla Hesse. They have created shrines in Afghanistan. He said that these similar resolution. a project known as the Authors Alliance, statues have been and remain shrines of un- Most recently: the oasis town of Palmyra, which is trying to do exactly that. Perhaps believers, who continue to worship and re- which was one of the great trading centers I could say that we didn’t leave the meeting spect them; God almighty is the only real of antiquity, connecting the civilizations feeling happy about the problems of preser- shrine, and fake idols should be destroyed. of the Mediterranean with Mesopotamia vation, but we raised our consciousness. A few days later, the sixth-century mon- and the empires of the East. For centuries, umental statues carved into a cliff in the its Roman-era ruins stood as monuments Bamiyan Valley of central Afghanistan– to Arab glory and Levantine cosmopolitan- which testified to the majesty of Buddhist ism. Then it was attacked by isis fighters. art and its transmission from India into Its most important shrine, a first-century Central and Eastern Asia–were hit by an- temple dedicated to the Mesopotamian

32 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 exploratory projects

god Bel was reduced to rubble. Then a sec- The question we will explore is, if states have the ond temple, dedicated to the other Palmy- ran deity Baalshamin, was blown up. Then obligation to protect cultural heritage within their the triumphal arch on the colonnaded main street, which may have commemorated the sovereign borders, what responsibility does the Roman victory over the Parthians, was de- international community have when the state is stroyed, followed by the demolition of several of the city’s tower tombs. Finally, the unable to or unwilling to exercise that obligation. local archeological museum was sacked, although much of its collection had been re- mosques in the city, dating from the fif- with the formation of new nation-states fol- moved to Damascus for safekeeping, given teenth century. A year later, a French-led lowing the collapse of empire, cultural her- that they were moveable heritage items. Not military force recaptured Timbuktu and ar- itage that fell within the sovereign borders stopping at the museum and its artifacts, rested Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi for partic- of those states has become state property. isis also beheaded the eighty-one-year- ipating in the destruction of the mausole- This has limited, and in most cases stopped, old Palmyran antiquity scholar, Khaled al- ums. Al-Mahdi’s conviction by the Interna- the practice of partage, which distributed Assad, and hung his mutilated body on tional Criminal Court in the Hague was the archeological finds between excavators and a column in a main square, because he tribunal’s first conviction for the destruc- local authorities. It has also made it diffi- allegedly refused to reveal to them where tion of religious buildings or historic monu- cult to create safe harbors for moveable cul- the artifacts had been moved for safekeep- ments, and whether it will lead to addition- tural heritage, such as sculptures, mosaics, ing. Needless to say, Palmyra was inscribed al convictions for the attacks in Mali, Iraq, and manuscripts. A recently signed U.S. law, on the list of unesco’s World Heritage and Syria is unclear, for al-Mahdi was appre- for example, allows for safe havens only on Sites, and still was heavily damaged. hended first, and was turned over to the icc the basis of a waiver of import restrictions at the invitation of the country that owns the artifacts. In any case, this law does not To date, the international community’s responses address threats to the immoveable cultur- have been limited to declarations of outrage, al heritage, like those temples that we saw blown up in Palmyra, the Great Mosque inscribing important cultural heritage sites on a world of Aleppo, or the mausoleums in Timbuk- tu. And so the American Academy and the list, and passing UN resolutions condemning such J. Paul Getty Trust have joined together to acts of violence. Clearly, more needs to be done. invite international legal scholars, museum and conservation professionals, and government and diplomatic leaders to a meet- Such deliberate attacks on cultural her- for prosecution only because Mali is a par- ing to be held at the British Academy in Lon- itage have not been limited to the Middle ty to the Rome Statute that created the icc; don next month, where together, in coop- East. In 2012, al Qaeda–linked rebels occu- Iraq and Syria are not. eration and collaboration with colleagues pied a breakaway mini-state in the northern This raises the question of the effective- around the world, we will explore the feasi- half of Mali, including the Saharan city of ness of the international community’s re- bility of a broad legal and diplomatic frame- Timbuktu. They enforced a strict interpre- sponses to the attacks on cultural heritage work modeled on the responsibility to pro- tation of Islamic law, and destroyed nine in conflict zones. To date, the internation- tect framework adopted by all members of mausoleums with pickaxes, hoes, and Ka- al community’s responses have been limit- the United Nationals General Assembly at lashnikovs. Among the mausoleums were ed to declarations of outrage, inscribing im- the 2005 World Summit. That framework those of Sidi Mahmoud Ben Amar, a re- portant cultural heritage sites on a world list, was directed at the prevention of genocide nowned Muslim scholar and Sufi saint who and passing un resolutions condemning and mass atrocities, and our task is to see died in 1547, and the Sidi Yahya, whose mau- such acts of violence. Clearly, more needs whether something comparable couldn’t be soleum also served as one of the three great to be done. First, we have to recognize that directed at the prevention of destruction of

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 33 academy projects

cultural heritage. The question we will explore is, if states have the obligation to protect cultural heritage within their sovereign borders, what responsibility does the international community have when the state is unable to or unwilling to exercise that obligation, such as in Syria, where the state does not have control over its sovereign territory. The American Academy is well-posi- tioned to take on this task, because the committee that wrote the original responsibility to protect report was chaired by Academy Fellow Lloyd Axworthy, with support from Academy Fellow Kofi Annan, and financial backing from Academy President Jonathan Fanton, then head of the John D. and Cath- erine T. MacArthur Foundation. The Acad- emy is not new to this kind of work. In 1947, the Academy sent Bart Bok as its representative to the First National Conference on unesco. He worked actively for unesco’s program in the natural sciences. Then, in November of that year, the Academy’s Committee on unesco issued a conference report to the State Department, which served as preparatory material for the U.S. National Commission to unesco. It’s on this foundation that we intend to explore the legal framework for the protection of cultural heritage, recognizing that in times of violent conflict, innocent people and the world’s cultural heritage are both at risk. n

© 2017 by Pauline Yu, Michael S. McPher- son, Robert J. Birgeneau, Rubén G. Rum- baut, Steven E. Miller, Robert Legvold, Tanisha Fazal, Karl W. Eikenberry, Nancy C. Andrews, Alan I. Leshner, Nannerl O. Keo- hane, Diane P. Wood, Felton Earls, Robert Darnton, and James Cuno, respectively.

34 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 presentations

Induction Ceremony 2016: Presentations by New Members

n October 8, 2016, the American Academy inducted its 236th class of members at a ceremony held in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The ceremony featured historical readings by Robert Millard (mit Corporation) and Mellody OL. Hobson (Ariel Investments, llc), as well as a performance by the Boston Children’s Chorus. It also included presentations by five new members:Terry A. Plank (Columbia University), Jay D Keasling (University of California, Berkeley; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Joint Bioenergy Institute), Andrea Louise Campbell (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Theaster Gates, Jr. (Rebuild Foundation; University of Chicago), and Walter Isaacson (The Aspen Institute). The ceremony concluded with a performance by the singer-songwriter Judy Collins.

The next eruption of Rainier will be a disaster for Seattle; the next eruption of Yellowstone will disrupt life as we know it on the planet.

It is also important to remember, howev- firearms–the merchants of death–sit and er, how lucky we are to have satellites in the gossip over their weekly lunch. sky and scientists on the ground, with the What I want to talk about is potentially ability to predict the location and strength the most exciting discovery in earth science of the storm in a timeframe that gives peo- in the next ten years: the ability to forecast ple at least a chance to get out of the way. earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. It is a The situation is very different for earth- great time to be an earth scientist, though, in quakes. There is no warning, no chance to fact, I have found it has always been a great get out of the way. time to be an earth scientist. In my lifetime, Volcanic eruptions can have lots of precur- we have discovered plate tectonics and global sors, but we don’t know how to read them. warming and we are ripe for another break- Sometimes there is a lot of unrest and no through in our understanding of the earth. eruption. That is an embarrassment. Some- Most of us study the earth because it is Terry A. Plank times there is an eruption with little prior fun–we get outdoors–and it allows us to Terry A. Plank is the Arthur D. Storke Memorial unrest. That is a disaster. Volcanic ash brings connect the rocks at our feet to planet-scale Professor in the Department of Earth and Environ- down aircraft; the next major eruption of processes. Nowhere was this more obvi- mental Sciences at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Ob- Rainier will be a disaster for Seattle; the next ous to me than as a graduate student, on a super-volcanic eruption of Yellowstone will ship in the middle of nowhere in the Pacific servatory at Columbia University. She was elected disrupt life as we know it on the planet. Ocean, drilling the seafloor. a Fellow of the American Academy in 2016. So hurricanes, earthquakes, and erup- We wanted to see what went down the tions–yes, there is a hierarchy among nat- Marianas Trench, but it takes a leap of faith hank you, Academy leadership, for ural hazards. Hurricanes are well forecast, to drill mud that is headed on a journey you T giving me an opportunity to say a few but the destruction of property is vast. can’t see into the earth, to be transformed at words. It is an incredible honor to represent Earthquakes can’t be forecast, but earth- high pressure and temperature into magma Class I, the Mathematical and Physical Sci- quakes don’t kill people, buildings do. Vol- that finally erupts out a volcano. ences, with these remarks. canoes are poorly forecast and have the abil- My early work examined this invisible There is some foreboding to a meeting ity to affect life as we know it on the planet. process with chemical tracers, and I have that requires checking the hurricane fore- You can tell what I work on, and what I think been following the path of subduction my cast prior to attending. As Matthew is bear- “wins.” This reminds me a bit of that scene whole career, into the trench and to the hot ing down on the Carolinas, it is hard not to in the movie Thank You For Smoking, where core of the mantle wedge, and back out, now feel awe at the fury and force of nature. the lobbyists from alcohol, tobacco, and face to face with the volcano.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 35 presentations

For many of us, the volcano is a portal, right place at the right time, on the seafloor blind data collection back and forth across like Jules Verne’s journey to the center of before the big Tohoku-Oki earthquake in the ocean for years led to the discoveries of the earth; it conveys information from the 2011–the one that generated an enormous plate tectonics, and the cores are still being deep and is really a bit of an annoyance that tsunami and led to the Fukushima nucle- mined for their records of climate change. it erupts. But my recent work tracing water ar disaster. These instruments caught mi- (My fellow newly elected member Lisa through the subduction zone and into mag- grating swarms of small earthquakes that Tauxe studied those magnetics data.) All ma has found that the water content doesn’t occurred weeks before the main shock. these seagoing voyages were block funded seem to relate to eruptive explosivity. This is a Earthquake precursors used to be a dirty by the Navy, at a scale that does not happen problem for the standard selzer bottle model, word; too many scientific careers have been today, but could–and probably with great that the gas drives the eruption. But as anyone burned looking for them. But these new benefit to our science and society. who has been handed a shaken bottle knows, phenomena are giving earthquake scientists At a large planning meeting last week, we it isn’t so much the amount of gas in the bot- optimism for understanding the timing and planted the seeds for a subduction zone ob- tle, but how fast you open the cap. So timing is physics of run-up to rupture, now that they servatory. We can expect another five mag- everything, and eyes are now trained on vol- know where to look and what to look for. nitude >8 “great earthquakes” in the next canoes to see how rapidly magma and gas rise So we as a community are trying to orga- five to ten years. There are about fifteen vol- and decompress on the way to the surface. nize a new initiative of observatories that canoes in a state of unrest right now; we have no idea when or if each will erupt. We need These new phenomena are giving earthquake arrays of seismometers and seafloorgps , real-time gas sniffers, and rapid response scientists optimism for understanding the timing collections of samples to catch events as and before they happen. When we have them, and physics of run-up to rupture. we’re going to discover new phenomena, with repercussions we can’t now predict. And we are just beginning to read these peer into the earth instead of outward to In 1989, klm Flight 867 was heading to An- signs of volcanic unrest: swarms of migrat- space. This requires a newer model than the chorage, Alaska, when it flew into Redoubt ing tiny deep earthquakes, the ground lit- usual small-team hypothesis-driven propos- volcano’s ash cloud, lost power in all engines, erally swelling, that we can capture with al submissions to the nsf, which are large- and entered a free fall for four minutes before gps and satellite interferometry, and co2 ly what have supported our field. In this, we regaining power. All passengers survived, but burps that presage magma moving under can take lessons from the 1960s. the aircraft sustained $80 million in damage. the ground. Lots of signs, but will it erupt I work at Columbia University, on a spe- Let’s just say it costs a fraction of that to next week, next month, ever? What is actu- cial campus called the Lamont-Doherty monitor volcanoes in Alaska each year; yet ally happening under the ground? Earth Observatory. The campus was es- monitoring funding continually gets cut. This is where our work comes in. The ash tablished in the 1950s as a quiet place out- There are thirty-five historically active vol- and crystals that are erupted record chem- side Manhattan to test seismometers, but canoes in Alaska–two that have erupted this ical patterns, and using the principles of it quickly became a home base for seago- year. Thirty thousand passengers fly over Alas- chemical diffusion we can clock the dis- ing scientists. The research vessel Vema was ka volcano air space each day. For any of you equilibrium processes that occur, like mag- in constant motion sailing back and forth who might fly from the United States to Asia, ma mixing or gas exsolution (bubble for- across the oceans, with ships full of gradu- the flight path takes you over Alaska. Many mation). This is the key needed to interpret ate students and a mix of scientists working of the active volcanoes have no monitoring the precursorsy signals: what is actually in close quarters for months at a time. The equipment. The situation is worse for many happening under the ground, which of the standing order was to stop and take a mud other volcanoes in many other countries. My precursors matter, and what leads to immi- core a day from the seafloor, and to drag hope is that ten years from now, if you are fly- nence in eruption. magnetometers and run gravimeters con- ing to some fancy meeting like ours today, you There are similar rumblings and new tinuously, punctuated by charges of dyna- will have a volcano forecast to check. omens in the study of earthquakes. Jap- mite lobbed off the side to take sounding of anese instruments happened to be in the the seafloor. This systematic but essentially © 2017 by Terry A. Plank

36 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 induction 2016

Biological engineering has had a tremendous impact on agriculture, but it has not yet solved some of the most important problems. . . . We’ve consumed our natural resources; we’ve polluted our water, land, and air; and people are needlessly dying because they can’t get access to high quality, low-cost pharmaceuticals.

scoop the manure. So I had lots of practical and nowhere is it more evident than in agri- experience with biology. culture. When I was on the farm in the 1970s, I was eight years old when the first genet- it was the height of chemistry’s impact on ic engineering experiments were published, agriculture. The seeds my father planted in and I remember reading a few years later the fields were hybrids created using tra- Jay D Keasling about the founding of Genentech. I was fas- ditional crop breeding and they were cov- Jay D Keasling is the Hubbard Howe, Jr., Distin- cinated by the potential to engineer life. Al- ered in noxious chemicals to keep rodents guished Professor of Biochemical Engineering at though I went to college with the idea of be- and other pests from eating them. Farm- the University of California, Berkeley; Associate coming a medical doctor, my first genetics ers sprayed other noxious chemicals on the course rekindled my fascination with genet- crops from the tractor and from airplanes. Laboratory Director for Biosciences at the Law- ic engineering and drove me down a com- And the pesticides and fertilizers leached rence Berkeley National Laboratory; and Chief pletely different path, one I am still on today. from the fields and into the groundwater. Executive Officer of the U.S. Department of En- My area of research is biological engi After I left the farm in the 1980s, geneti- ergy’s Joint BioEnergy Institute. He was elected a neering, or synthetic biology. My colleagues cally modified crops began to appear. Corn Fellow of the American Academy in 2016. and I seek to create tools to manipulate biol- and soy were engineered to be resistant to ogy in a highly controlled and reproducible relatively innocuous chemicals like Round- am deeply honored to be inducted into manner and then use those tools to solve up and to be resistant to corn bores and oth- I the American Academy of Arts and Sci- some of the world’s most important chal- er pests; many noxious chemicals were no ences and to represent my fellow honorees lenges in human health, the environment, longer needed. The amount of energy need- in the Biological Sciences. and energy. Our ability to engineer biol- ed to farm decreased dramatically relative to My experience with biology started at a ogy has accelerated by leaps and bounds that used in the chemicals era. Wildlife par- very young age. over the last four decades since the advent tially came back to the farm. And nationally, I was raised on a farm in rural Nebras- of genetic engineering. We have sequenced crop yields increased dramatically. We are ka. My father grew corn and soybeans and a significant, but still small, fraction of the now advancing into an era where microbi- raised pigs and cattle. As a young boy, every world’s genomes. We can insert or delete omes in the soil are being added or coculti- evening I came home from school to do an genes in almost any organism. We can simu- vated with the crops to increase yields. hour or two of chores: feeding cattle, water- late biological systems on the computer and Biological engineering has had a tre- ing pigs, laying out irrigation pipe. On Sat- predict their behavioral responses to chang- mendous impact on agriculture, but it has urday afternoons, my father made me clean es in their genomes. We can design and con- not yet solved some of the most important pigpens with a shovel. From the time I was struct new genomes from scratch. We can problems. One percent of the world’s ener- eight years old until the time I was eighteen, build tissues and organs from a single pro- gy is consumed to make nitrogen-based fer- I had the smell of pig manure on my hands. genitor cell. tilizer, largely for U.S.-produced corn. We When I left the farm to go to college my fa- In just four decades, biological engineer- spread a huge amount of phosphate-based ther sold the pigs because he had no one to ing has had a tremendous impact on society, fertilizer on the ground, with only a small

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 37 presentations

fraction actually going to crops, since it is We need to know how organisms can sur- embrace it and participate in a dialogue in not in a form that plants can take up. Weeds vive and thrive in extreme environments. an unbiased and meaningful way. have acquired resistance to Roundup. And We need to know how the brain works. And Through smart regulation and public sup- plants are relatively inefficient in photosyn- we need to know how a changing climate port, biology will continue to be one of the thesis and require large inputs of water. In will affect the growth and proliferation of most exciting areas of basic science, will con- theory, these challenges can be solved with all organisms on the planet. tinue to grow as a fraction of the U.S. econo- biological engineering. This basic science does not need any oth- my, and will make the world a better place. The world faces many other problems, er justification than curiosity itself. We are Again, I am deeply honored to be induct- problems created by our generation and the sometimes so focused on solving problems ed into the American Academy of Arts and generations before us: we’ve consumed our that we forget that the technology we have Sciences. natural resources; we’ve polluted our wa- in our phones, our gas tanks, our medi- ter, land, and air; and people are needlessly cines, and even our clothes was built on a © 2017 by Jay D Keasling dying because they can’t get access to high foundation of basic science and serendipi- quality, low-cost pharmaceuticals. ty. The United States has been a leader in its Biology has the potential to solve many support of basic science and, in particular, of these problems. We can engineer plants basic biology. Unfortunately, our govern- and microbes to produce renewable, car- ment does not always support basic science bon neutral, transportation fuels. We can in a manner that will ensure that the Unit- engineer plants and microbes to clean up ed States remains at the technological cut- the environment. We can prospect the bio- ting edge. We, as scientists and engineers, logical diversity of the planet for new drugs must be willing to speak with policy-mak- to diseases and produce those drugs afford- ers and the public to help them understand ably. And eventually we will be able to ef- the science and how some seemingly far- fectively engineer humans to eliminate ge- fetched pursuits could have unknown and netic disease. outsized impacts.

We, as scientists and engineers, must be willing to speak with policy-makers and the public to help them understand the science and how some seemingly far-fetched pursuits could have unknown and outsized impacts.

But solving these challenges requires an Finally, we need smart regulation of tech- understanding of basic biology. We need to nology. The United States is one of the few know how cells grow and divide, how en- places where biological engineering can be zymes inside the cell catalyze reactions and practiced, particularly for agriculture. We build the basic molecules of the cell. We must not take that technological and scien- need to know how plants capture the ener- tific freedom for granted. Regulation lags far gy of sunlight, fix carbon dioxide in the at- behind technology development, and the mosphere, and turn that fixed carbon into stakes are too high in biological engineering more plant material. We need to know how for something to go awry. Scientists should microbes in the soil and in our guts interact not shy away from participating in the de- with us and other multicellular organisms. velopment of regulation. Rather, we should

38 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 induction 2016

These are programs I had long studied but quickly discovered I really didn’t know anything about. I could rattle off program parameters and statistics and technical terms. But I didn’t truly appreciate what these program designs meant for people on the ground – how they shape and distort people’s lives – until my own family members were enrolled.

plunged her and my brother into the world of As a disabled person, she was categorical- means-tested programs in the United States, ly eligible for Medicaid. But because it is a the “safety net” of social welfare programs. program for the poor, she and my brother These are programs I had long studied but also had to become poor. That meant meet- quickly discovered I really didn’t know any- ing Medicaid’s income and asset caps. Andrea Louise Campbell thing about. I could rattle off program pa- They had to keep their income below 133 Andrea Louise Campbell is the Department rameters and statistics and technical terms. percent of the federal poverty level. That’s Head and Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of But I didn’t truly appreciate what these $2,100 per month for their family of three. Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute program designs meant for people on the Studies show that that’s half the income ground–how they shape and distort peo- needed for a “modest living standard” in of Technology. She was elected a Fellow of the ple’s lives–until my own family members most parts of the country. American Academy in 2016. were enrolled. And while about half the states no longer Four years ago my sister-in-law was on have an asset limit for Medicaid eligibility, hank you to the Academy for the op- the highway in California on her way to California does. The cap for my brother and T portunity to speak on behalf of Class nursing school when a hit-and-run driver sister-in-law? $3,150. Except for their home III, the Social Sciences. I am honored to be caused her car to roll over, leaving her par- and one vehicle, their total financial assets elected to this esteemed institution. alyzed from the chest down. She was preg- could not exceed $3,150. I should add: this To be an academic, especially a tenured nant. Fortunately, the baby survived and my cap was last adjusted in 1989. one, is an incredible pleasure and privilege. nephew is now a healthy four-year-old. So they had to spend down their modest But occasionally we fat and happy faculty But her disability and need for help with bank account. My sister-in-law had to liq- get our comeuppance. Usually, from the ex- the activities of daily living meant enroll- uidate a small 401(k) plan from an earlier pected sources: ment in Medicaid, the health insurance pro- job–and pay the early withdrawal penal- zzWe lose an intellectual debate to a col- gram for low-income Americans. Why? She ty. And as luck would have it, my brother’s league. wasn’t poor. But Medicaid is the only source hobby was working on old cars; those had zzWe face critiques from editors and re- of help for the long-term supports and ser- to go. viewers. vices the disabled need. Their liquidated assets could only go to- zzWe encounter energetic young grad- Medicare, for which the disabled can qual- ward the exempt items: the house and uate students who reanalyze our data ify after a two-year waiting period, doesn’t the wheelchair van they had to buy. They with new techniques and challenge cover long-term supports. Private long-term couldn’t pay off their credit card bills, or col- our findings. (That’s a good one.) care insurance is time-limited, not meant for lege loans. Nor could I help them–well, not I never thought I would receive my come- those who need decades’ worth of help. Plus officially–lest I violate their income cap. uppance from the very programs I had spent my sister-in-law didn’t have long-term care Here’s my comeuppance. As a social pol- years analyzing: from a car accident that ren- insurance: she was thirty-two years old. So icy scholar–I will never again use the term dered my sister-in-law a quadriplegic and Medicaid it was. expert–I “knew” all this. I knew there were

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 39 presentations

asset and income limits. But I didn’t fully them and fix the disincentives and Draconi- I will sum up by saying that at the end of the understand the implications. an parameters. day, we have to recognize that we’re all needy. If you are a citizen–a citizen!–in need I hope in some less polarized future we That is the deepest lesson I have learned. As in the United States who is enrolled in a can bring left and right together for re- University of Chicago health policy scholar means-tested program, the government can form. I believe there could be common Harold Pollack says, “We are all vulnerable. tell you how you can spend your own money. ground. I’ll leave it to the other political We have to take care of each other.” The government could tell me how I could scientists to explain how we get to that less Thank you. spend my own money. This offended the in- polarized future. ner libertarian I didn’t even know I had. But in the meantime, I try to spread word © 2017 by Andrea Louise Campbell Then there are the incentives, or disin- of what I’ve learned. I now appreciate that centives, built into the program designs. we need to know more about the lived expe- First, the disincentive to work: any money rience of poverty and the role government my brother made above their allowance of programs play. A number of my fellow so- $2,100 per month would simply go to Med- cial science inductees do wonderful work in icaid. So he rolled back his work hours in the these areas. The recent interest in inequal- face of this 100 percent marginal tax rate. ity among scholars and the broader public And the disincentive to save: my brother gives me hope. and sister-in-law can’t do any of the things I now recognize the need for a multipro- families are always told to do for financial gram perspective. Academics and policy- security: Have an emergency fund. Save for makers tend to focus on one program at college (a 529 fund counts against the as- a time, but it’s the interactions among set test in California). Save for retirement programs that matter for recipients. The (iras also count against the asset test in Obama administration proposed raising

I now recognize the need for a multiprogram perspective. Academics and policy-makers tend to focus on one program at a time, but it’s the interactions among programs that matter for recipients.

California). Here it’s worth noting the mul- the asset cap on federal assistance programs titude of studies that show that outcomes like food stamps to $10,000, which is won- for children–in education, economic mo- derful. But for a recipient also on Medicaid bility, criminal justice–are worse for lower in a state with a $3,000 asset cap, the federal income families. And among low-income reform would be moot. We have to be more families, they are worse for those with low- holistic in our analysis and policy-making. er assets. And yet government programs for We need to socialize the costs of cata- the poor force people to raise their children strophically expensive risks like disability. in a state of financial instability, fostering The lifetime risk that each of us will be dis- intergenerational poverty. abled or need to care for a family member Conservatives might argue: if these pro- who becomes disabled approaches 100 per- grams are so terrible, we should get rid of cent. Imagine if we had true, universal social them. Liberals might argue: no, let’s reform insurance for these needs.

40 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 induction 2016

When I start to look at the possibilities for artistic practice today, and I look at the kind of troubles that exist just outside of my studio, I think this is a moment when serious iteration is needed within our administration, and a tremendous amount of love is needed, especially in Chicago.

your peers and teachers in the crit–ten or ure out what was next. Slowly, my art career fifteen of them, or even thirty to forty–per- started to grow, but only alongside a full- mission to tell you how bad your work is. time day job, because my parents were de- We can call that a kind of administration. termined not to help me out. They were like, People take turns, one after another, telling look, if you want to make it in this world, you it should have been black, it should have you’re going to have to do it on your own. Theaster Gates, Jr. been blue, you should stick to photography So my mom would quietly give me a couple Theaster Gates, Jr., is a Chicago-based artist and not change to video, you should stick to hundred bucks every once in a while, and I whose practice includes space development, ob- economics and not be a painter at all. would say, yes, dad, I’m totally independent. ject making, performance, and critical engage- As an undergraduate or graduate student, Love. Love and good house administration. you’re in a process of iterating. In fact, at Iowa In those years, I found myself trying to ment with many publics. Founder and Executive State, I started out in pre-pharmacy, and I grow my knowledge of urban planning and Director of the Rebuild Foundation, he is also moved from pre-pharmacy to urban planning. my knowledge of the city, while also ad- Professor in the Department of Visual Art and Already then I was understanding the impor- vancing my knowledge of ceramics. I was Director of Arts + Public Life at the University of tance of iteration, and that there was a way in a craftsman. I didn’t consider myself a con- Chicago. He was elected a Fellow of the Ameri- which iteration was calling me to the Univer- ceptual artist or a contemporary artist. I can Academy in 2016. sity of Cape Town in South Africa. Two years had my studio, but during the day, I had my after Mandela had been released, I thought bowtie on. I didn’t wear a jacket today be- or the last couple months, I have been try- maybe I could continue my studies of tradi- cause now I get to be wholly an artist. I’m F ing to simplify the way I talk to nonartists tional African religion, sculpture, and space. no longer a civil servant, I’m just a servant. about the artist life and artist processes, and It was at the University of Cape Town that It was really the studio that helped me it seems there might be a few nonartists in I started to really consider this idea of love learn how to be a better administrator. In this room. The words that I have come up and administration: That there was a way in my studio, I could make a work of art, look with, that seem to sum up my practice, are which Mandela had so gracefully imagined at it from all sides, and imagine if it was three: love, administration, and iteration. I that those years of sacrifice in jail had creat- working. If it wasn’t, I could change what have been thinking about these words a lot. ed a platform by which he could be not just surrounded it, I could add to it, I could put it Love, administration, iteration. I thought himself, but a kind of symbol for the possi- back in the kiln. I could glaze it and reglaze I would try to talk to you today about what I bility of peace and reconciliation in South it. I could turn it on its head. I could let oth- do in my studio, and what I do and see out- Africa. That, in a way, for me, Mandela had er people come to my studio and critique me side my studio, in relation to these three become the most beautiful work of art of until I didn’t want to hear them anymore. I words. When you’re a young artist, you are that time, combining a symbolic life with a was engaged in acts of iteration. And when given an opportunity to be subject to crits pragmatic life, a life of forgiveness. Mandela I start to look at the possibilities for artis- (short for critiques). Basically you hang as a work of art, as a symbol of love. tic practice today, and I look at the kind of some work on a wall or you put some art Administration. When I left the Universi- troubles that exist just outside of my studio, out or you do a performance, and you give ty of Cape Town, I was bored, trying to fig- I think this is a moment when serious iter-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 41 presentations

ation is needed within our administration, ning says, no, they’re zoned as two-flats can be something else. But it requires a tre- and a tremendous amount of love is needed, and they’re going to stay two-flats. Here is mendous act of love. When we enter policy especially in Chicago. where I think an artist who practices think- through an act of love, we start to find new Terry Plank spoke to us about how it’s ing about the city, thinking about policy, has ways of exploring policy, of making more possible that we could track minor ruptures the ability to show an administrator in De- room for more people. to predict a tremendous volcanic blow, that troit that if in two square miles of residen- And so I’m convinced today that I am an there is a kind of precursive possibility to tial zoning there aren’t enough people to fill artist. It took me a long time to be able to this explosion. When I travel, people always those houses, maybe those houses could be say that. But inside or outside my studio, ask me what I think about gun violence in repurposed for other uses. Or if there are the thing I’m most interested in making Chicago, what I think about young black huge tracts of vacant land in Chicago where is a transformed world. My work is an at- men killing each other, what I think about there are homeless people and hungry peo- tempt at making meaning. It’s an attempt, like Mandela, to understand the possibility of the symbolic. Sometimes it includes As much as it might be a kind of vocation, urban paintings, but a lot of times it’s about how planning has more to do with sculpture. Urban you can use the creative process to change what’s around you. I want to believe that planning is, in fact, one’s capacity to shape the city, beauty is a basic service, but I’ve found and urban planners and scientists, like artists, are the only way you can get to that beauty is through a hell of a lot of work. equipped with the tools whereby they might reshape So I want to commend the Academy for allowing me to be a part of its membership. their subjects. And I want to commend my cohorts, because artists are the amazing workers who police brutality and these travesties. Well I ple, surely there’s a way, through love and convince the world and convince cities and think that there might be ways we could get administration and great iteration, those their occupants that they can be beautiful, ahead of the volcanic explosion, by tracking things could reconcile themselves. bold, and powerful again. I hope that I can these minor ruptures that are happening be- What I’ve realized is that, as much as it be a part of that legacy. Thank you so much. low sea level, below deck, below our hous- might be a kind of vocation, urban planning es, within the education system. And that has more to do with sculpture. That urban © 2017 by Theaster Gates, Jr. requires a tremendous amount of care and planning is, in fact, one’s capacity to shape administration. If the rupture destroys your the city, and that urban planners and scien- equipment, if your equipment is water dam- tists, like artists, are equipped with the tools aged, you have to commit to the next itera- whereby they might reshape their subjects. tion of it. If for some reason my studio isn’t The challenge is that no one has taught the working the way that I want, I’ll start with a planner, like they’ve taught the artist, that tar painting, I’ll make another, and anoth- iteration is OK. No one has shared with er, until I find myself with an iteration that I the urban planner, with the public policy- love. The same is true with the city. maker, or with the elected official that it’s There’s a series of abandoned two-flat OK to be creative, to identify when poli- buildings in Chicago that could be trans- cies aren’t working anymore, and to revise. formed into a great series of cultural cen- Chicago is no longer the city it was when ters. No one lives on this block. But the De- it was all wooden; it transformed to brick, partment of Planning can only see that the and planners and policy-makers had to it- buildings are zoned to be houses, not cultur- erate. Now, maybe these empty postindus- al centers. Unwilling to administrate with trial buildings could be something else, iteration or love, the Department of Plan- maybe these men returning from prison

42 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 induction 2016

After forty years, the Internet is broken. There are bugs in the foundation, bats in the belfry, and trolls in the basement.

models of content creators, unleashed del- nial, Steve Crocker, was designated to take uges of spam, and forced us to use passwords notes, which he called “requests for com- and two-factor authentication schemes that ments,” to indicate that this was a collabo- would have baffled Houdini. rative process with no hierarchy of control. The trillions being spent and the iq That was cool. It’s particularly cool that points of computer science talent being al- we’re still doing it this way. The rfc pro- located to tackle security issues makes it a cess is up to number 7,900. drag, rather than a spur, to productivity in The architecture Crocker and compa- some sectors. ny created was radically decentralized This talk is not intended to be one of and distributed. Each and every node had those technophobic rants about the Internet equal power to originate and forward any Walter Isaacson rewiring our brains to give us the twitchy at- packet. If a node got taken out or some- Walter Isaacson is President and Chief Executive tention span of Donald Trump on Twitter, one tried to censor things, the Net would Officer of The Aspen Institute. He was elected a nor about how we have to log off and smell route around it. Fellow of the American Academy in 2016. the flowers. Those qualms about new tech- This has been explained as a surviv- nologies have existed ever since Plato fret- al mechanism against a Soviet attack. But ted that the technology of writing would I interviewed Crocker and his colleagues ecent speakers for Class V (Public Af- threaten memorization and oratory. and they denied that this was the case. “We R fairs, Business, and Administration) Instead, I speak as someone who loves the were grad students.” they said. “Why? Be- have addressed broad and daunting chal- Net and bemoans its decline. cause we were avoiding the draft and Viet- lenges, such as my friend Darren Walker, The Internet began as a way for the Pen- nam. We weren’t interested in helping the who last year spoke on inequality, and previ- tagon’s Advanced Research Projects Agency Pentagon create a military system.” ous speakers who discussed the breakdown (arpa, now darpa) to connect the comput- Some of them wrote a letter to Time maga- of civil discourse, the loss of faith in our po- ers they were funding at various research uni- zine explaining as much. Time was arrogant litical institutions, and the decline of pro- versities. The network was packet-switched, back then. I know, because I was there. The ductivity and financial inclusion. which meant that the information was bro- Time editors claimed to have a better source The challenge I wish to address today is ken up into little digital packets that were on the topic, and didn’t print their letter. more focused, but is also a contributor to all sent scurrying separately through the fishnet Years later, when I was writing The Inno- of these larger problems. It is that, after for- of network nodes by whichever path was at vators, I went back to the Time archives to ty years, the Internet is broken. We broke it, that instant most efficient. The packets were find the “better” source. And it actually was we allowed it to corrode, and now we have encoded with headers that told them where a good one: Stephen Lukasik, who was in to fix it. to go and how to rejoin with the other pack- charge of the funding for arpa at the Pen- There are bugs in the foundation, bats in ets when they got there. tagon. He said that of course the network the belfry, and trolls in the basement. The The universities were told to come up was meant to survive a Russian attack; that anonymity that is embedded into its trans- with a way to connect their big mainframes was the rationale for getting the colonels at mission control protocols has poisoned civ- to the arpanet’s routers. So they did what the Pentagon and members of Congress to il discourse, enabled hacking, permitted cy- research professors often do. They delegat- fund it. berbullying, and made email a risk. It has ed the task to their graduate students. “You tell Crocker,” he said, “that I was on prevented easy transactions, thwarted fi- As graduate students in the late 1960s, top, he was on bottom, so he didn’t know nancial inclusion, destroyed the business they tended to resist authority. The most ge- what was happening.”

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 43 presentations

When I reported this back to Steve Crock- the early browsers created for the World Anonymity has caused a host of problems: er, he paused, stroked his chin, and replied: Wide Web. It brilliantly allowed the whole We can’t trust email. I’ve now been involved “You can tell Lukasik that we were on bot- of the earth’s computers to be webbed to- in four hacks. I am no longer comfortable us- tom and he was on top, so he didn’t know gether and navigated through hyperlinks. ing email for anything of substance. what was happening.” But the links were one-way. You knew Our notions of privacy have been twist- So that’s how the Internet works. There is where the links took you. But if you had a ed. We oppose the right of the government no central control or authority. webpage or piece of content, you didn’t ex- to get into the iPhone of a mass murderer, The separate but near-simultaneous in- actly know who was linking to you or com- we are appalled that the government might vention of the Internet and the personal ing to use your content. be monitoring the metadata of Internet traf- computer in the 1970s had a transforming All of that enshrined the potential for an- fic, yet we merrily read Colin Powell’s and effect on information flow not seen since onymity. You could make comments anon- Hillary Clinton’s and Sony’s email when the Gutenberg. It meant that anyone anywhere ymously. Go to a webpage anonymously. North Koreans, Russians, or private actors could publish anything and get anything Consume content anonymously. With a try to influence our movie preferences or published from anywhere. little effort, send email anonymously. And political process. Those in this room may not understand if you figured out a way to get into some- We are inundated with spam. Every day the import. We all have plenty of opportu- one’s servers or databases, you could do it I get four or five emails offering me breast nities–too many–to be published. But 99 anonymously. augmentation. How many people open an email from an unknown address and are persuaded to have their breasts augment- If people wanted to communicate and surf ed? I don’t know. But if the Net is so good anonymously, they could. But those of us who at personalization, why am I on these lists? The Web is no longer a place of communi- choose, at times, not to be anonymous and not to ty, no longer an agora. Every day more sites are eliminating comments sections. deal with people who are anonymous should have What are some solutions to these prob- that right as well. lems? If we could start from scratch, here’s what I think we would do: zzCharge a tenth of a penny for email. If percent of this country never had the op- For years, the benefits of anonymity on you send twenty emails a day, you can portunity to write or have their opinions the Net outweighed its drawbacks. People afford the two cents. If you’re a spam- disseminated until the advent of the Inter- felt more free to express themselves, which mer, you would have to think twice. net and its related services, such as Twitter, was especially valuable if they were dissi- zzCreate a system that enabled content Facebook, Medium, and blog sites. dents or hiding a personal secret. This was producers to negotiate with aggrega- There was one fundamental trait embed- celebrated in the famous 1993 New Yorker tors and search engines to get a royal- ded in the genetic code of the arpanet, one cartoon, “On the Internet, nobody knows ty whenever their content is used, like that was replicated when Bob Kahn and Vint you’re a dog.” ascap (American Society of Compos- Cerf wrote the set of protocols that allowed Now the problem is nobody can tell if ers, Authors and Publishers) has nego- the arpanet to internetwork with oth- you’re a troll. Or a hacker. Or a bot. tiated for public performances and ra- er networks, thus forming the Internet. The A long, long time ago, John Finley strode dio airings of its members’ works. packets were encoded or enveloped with their this stage and tried to teach the wisdom of zzEmbed a simple digital wallet and cur- destination address, but not with their place Plato. In the Republic, we learn the tale of the rency for quick and easy small pay- of origin. With a circuit-switched network, Ring of Gyges. Put it on, and you’re invisi- ments for songs, blogs, articles, and you could track or trace back the origins of ble and anonymous. The question that Pla- whatever other digital content is for the information. Not with the Internet. to asks is whether those who put on the ring sale. Compounding this was the architecture will be civil and moral. He thinks not. The zzEncode emails with an authenticated that Tim Berners-Lee and the inventors of Internet has proven him correct. return or originating address.

44 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 induction 2016

zzEnforce critical properties and secu- of anonymity, which they sometimes mis- rity at the lowest levels of the system takenly label privacy. possible, such as in the hardware or in The best approach, I think, would be to the programming language, instead try to create a voluntary system, for those of leaving it to programmers to incor- who want to use it, to have verified identifi- porate security into every line of code cation and authentication of users. they write. People would not be forced to use such a Most Internet engineers think that many system. If they wanted to communicate and of these reformations are possible, from Vint surf anonymously, they could. But those of Cerf, the original tcp/ip coauthor, to Milo us who choose, at times, not to be anony- Medin of Google, to Howard Shrobe, the di- mous and not to deal with people who are rector of cybersecurity at mit. “We don’t anonymous should have that right as well. need to live in cyber hell,” Shrobe has argued. That’s the way it works in the real world. darpa, which created the first segment And the benefits would be many: Easy of the Internet, has set up a project to ex- and secure ways to deal with your finances plore such possibilities. It is called Clean and medical records. Small payment sys- Slate. It asks what would we do if we could tems that could reward valued content rath- rebuild networks and computer systems er than the current incentive to concentrate from scratch. on clickbait for advertising. Less hacking, It would be possible, they concluded, to spamming, cyberbullying, trolling, and the build servers and host computers that used spewing of anonymous hate. And the possi- operating systems that defied or corrected bility of a more civil discourse. n security flaws that were in whatever software ran on them. They also came up with © 2017 by Walter Isaacson a plan, Active Authentication, that would provide various ways to securely identify any user. To view or listen to the presentations, People can be verified biometrically and visit https://www.amacad.org/ by other means. Their communications and induction2016. activity can be authenticated and certified. If they choose, they can allow only authenticated users so send them email, use their site, or get into their systems. This could be done by having chips and machines that update the notion of an In- ternet packet. These packets could be encoded or tagged with metadata that describe what is contained in the packet and give the rules for how it can be used. It would then be encrypted and sent to another computer, which would not accept it unless the metadata met its standards. Implementing some of these is less a matter of technology than of social will. Some civil libertarians will resist any diminution

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 45 presentations

Educating Students Who Have Different Kinds of Minds

n October 9, 2016, as part of the Academy’s 2016 Induction weekend program, Temple Grandin (Professor of Animal Science at Colorado State University and a world-renowned autism spokesperson) discussed the edu- O cation of students who have different kinds of minds, as well as her own upbringing and work experience as a woman with autism. An edited version of her remarks appears below.

How about Thomas Edison? He was a hyperactive high school dropout. His teachers labeled him as “addled.” What would happen to a kid like that today?

ity variation. I’ve been out to Silicon Val- How about Elon Musk? He was always ley. Half of those programmers are on the different, in a slightly nerdy way, and was autism spectrum. At some point you can severely bullied. You’ll see that bullying is get enough geeky traits to label it “mild au- something that keeps coming up. I was bul- tism.” With too much of the trait, you can lied in high school. It was terrible! And now get kids who struggle to function and may they can bully you online, which makes it remain nonverbal. It’s a continuous trait even worse. But Elon actually grew up in with complicated genetics. South Africa. He was exposed at an early age But what I want to talk to you about to- to mechanical things in his father’s shop; day is the educational system. I spent a lot of today, he’s developing rockets for space ex- Temple Grandin time reading biographies of great innovators ploration. He has greatly reduced the cost of Temple Grandin is Professor of Animal Science who had unconventional educational paths. rockets through innovations with different at Colorado State University. She was elected a For example, look at Jane Goodall. I was re- kinds of valve seals. And you know what? Fellow of the American Academy in 2016. ally shocked to learn that she had a two-year Even if his Tesla electric car fails, he’s suc- secretarial degree. She was actually hired as ceeded. He’s begun to change the car indus- a secretary by Dr. Louis Leakey before she try over to electric. But as a grade-school eally great to be here! I’ll start out with started her famous study of chimpanzee so- student today, would Elon get the same op- R a little bit about autism. Autism var- cial life in Tanzania in 1960. Jane had some portunities to develop? ies from Einstein, who had no language at difficulty remembering faces, and she liked age three, to a boy who can’t dress himself. the solitude of the woods. She went on to Common Denominators of Success Over the years, doctors have kept changing obtain her Ph.D. at Cambridge University for Unique Minds the diagnosis guidelines. It is maybe half without a bachelor’s degree! What would What were some of the common denom- science and half doctors squabbling in con- happen to Jane in today’s educational sys- inators of the paths these unique minds ference rooms in nice hotels like the Mar- tem? How about Thomas Edison? He was a took? What helped them be successful? riot and Hyatt. Nobody’s doing that with hyperactive high school dropout. His teach- To start, they grew up in educated fami- the diagnosis of tuberculosis. But with au- ers labeled him as “addled.” What would lies. Even though Edison dropped out of tism, you may have a kid who has normal happen to a kid like that today? Well Edison school, he was in a house full of books, of speech, an awkward, geeky kind of kid, on patented the light bulb. How about Steven all different kinds. They also had early ex- the very mild end of the spectrum. A child’s Spielberg? He was rejected from a top film posure to career interests. And they learned brain can be either more thinking-oriented, school because he had poor grades. He was how to work hard at an early age, which is a or it can be more social-emotional. Some of bullied throughout school and was dyslexic. deficiency today with a lot of kids who are these differences are just normal personal- What would happen to him today? quirky and different. These individuals also

46 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 educating students who have different kinds of minds

weren’t overspecialized and they had men- Musk also traveled extensively outside what many photo-realistic visual thinkers tors. I had a science teacher in high school of his native South Africa. Some of my very struggled with: I absolutely couldn’t do al- who turned me completely around and got first trips to look at cattle facilities were gebra. Didn’t make any sense. I found oth- me motivated to study for the first time in overseas, and that totally changed my per- er opportunities with math, but today, too my young life. spective. It’s a big world out there, and many smart kids are getting screened out Jane Goodall was looking at chickens Musk started getting to know it at a young on account of the algebra requirement. Be- when she was five years old, trying to figure age. And at eleven, he got a computer and cause they can’t do algebra, they aren’t al- out how they laid their eggs. She was a good taught himself programming. He was a hard lowed to substitute geometry or statistics, high school student, raised in a home full of worker. He sold the code for a video game to which they’re more likely to understand. books. She spent her time reading all about a magazine at age twelve. He tried to lease a We all suffer when we screen out brilliant chimpanzees and other animals. Her favor- space to open up a video game store, though visual thinkers. Think about the Fukushima ite novels were Dr. Doolittle, Tarzan, and The he was too young to do that. In his twen- Daiichi nuclear disaster: When the earth- Jungle Book. In her era in England, girls be- ties, he did really grubby manual labor and quake hit, the reactors automatically shut came secretaries. Dr. Leakey hired her as a secretary, but had it in mind to employ her These pioneers had early exposure to career as a chimpanzee researcher, and he men- tored her. The rest is history. interests. They learned how to work hard at an early Edison cleanly fit this model. He ran age, which is a deficiency today with a lot of kids chemistry experiments as a child. He was exposed early to railroads and grain eleva- who are quirky and different. They had mentors. tors. In fact, he almost drowned in grain at a grain elevator and he burned up the baggage And they weren’t overspecialized. car on a train. That didn’t make the railroad real happy, but he was given the opportunity later got an internship at the Bank of Nova down, powering down the plant. The reactor to make mistakes. He also worked as a news- Scotia. Musk completed college, and went core still required cooling, though, which boy (who would start his own paper) and he on to create PayPal. These creative people required power–except the plant’s backup became a telegraph operator at age fourteen. generally didn’t follow a conventional ed- generators, kept in the basements of the re- He learned how to work. ucational path. These shared experiences actor turbines, were flooded by the tsunami And Thomas Edison asked questions, are explored more in the books Creativity in that followed the shock. It was completely constantly. I used to ask lots of questions. Science: Chance, Logic, Genius, and Zeitgeist by beyond my imagination how they could let My grandfather and grandmother used to Dean Keith Simonton and The Geography of that happen. It’s not my area to design a nu- live right over there on Memorial Drive, Genius by Eric Weiner. clear reactor, but if I had been drawing up right next to the church, near Harvard Yard. the plans for the concrete work, no emer- My grandfather, John C. Purves, was the Three Different Kinds of Thinking gency equipment would have been located coinventor of the autopilot for airplanes. Our inventors had to have different kinds in a non-waterproof basement. I would have I asked endless science questions. Why do of minds. Different kinds of minds rely on looked at the design and visualized the wa- tides go in and out? Why is grass green? My different kinds of thinking. The three types ter coming in. All they needed were simple curiosity met its match. are: photo-realistic visual thinking, pattern watertight doors. But mathematical think- Elon Musk was a compulsive reader. He mathematical thinking, and verbal/audi- ers can’t always see the mistake that way. loved The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, tory thinking. I’m a photo-realistic visual Mathematical thinking is usually pattern and he spent long hours at a local bookstore thinker. Everything I think about is recalled thinking, spatial visualization. Mathemati- that let him just sit in there and read. Again, as a picture. When I was young. I assumed cians, like musicians, tend to think in pat- exposure to books and to skilled trades, everybody else thought in pictures too. My terns, not in pictures. The verbal thinker, through his father’s engineering projects, book The Autistic Brain contains references to the person who thinks in words and mean- drove his curiosity and focused his mind on scientific studies that provide evidence for ings and who tends to also be an auditory work, without overspecialization. different ways of thinking. I struggled with learner, has totally taken over the domain

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 47 presentations

Different kinds of minds rely on different kinds of research. You end up a thoroughgoing igno- ramus on everything in the world except for thinking. The three types are: photo-realistic visual one subdivisional sliver of nothing.” thinking, pattern mathematical thinking, and verbal/ At one of the Induction receptions, some- body told me that robots are going to replace auditory thinking. people who fix power lines. I’m thinking,BS! I’ll tell you what robots are going to replace: of education. Conventional education today Overspecialization May Hinder super-specialized doctors. Artificial intelli- doesn’t value nonverbal forms of thinking, Creative Problem Solving gence is going to replace our super-special- and so some students hit dead ends. Though I mentioned the danger of overspecializa- ized areas of knowledge. An ai expert quot- most so-called normal people are mixtures tion. At a plant science meeting I was asked, ed in The Economist noted that an ai system of these three kinds of thinking. “How can you justify eating meat?” I’ve can read x-rays better than a doctor–but it Parts of our education system today are been learning a little introductory crop sci- can’t do the doctor’s administrative assis- just crazy. A few weeks ago, I had dinner ence. Two years ago, our animal science de- tant’s job! That job is much more variable. with a general education third-grade teach- partment at Colorado State University invit- er who got in trouble for teaching subtrac- ed a plant scientist to our cattle meeting. I Visual Thinkers, AI, and People with tion using borrowing, the old-fashioned learned something I didn’t know: that the Autism are All Bottom-Up Thinkers way many of us were taught. I’m not sug- very best soils in Illinois and Iowa were cre- Artificial intelligence works from the bot- gesting we throw out some of the new ways ated by herds of grazing animals. The graz- tom up. You train the program using specific of teaching math, but if some of these old- ing animal is a part of the land, so they have examples of x-rays showing different types er or nonstandard methods are more inclu- a have a place on our property or in our diet. of problems. The program is told which sive of other kinds of thinkers, why can’t we We need to start getting the grazing animals x-rays contain pathology and which ones teach both? Also within the last month, I back with cropland as part of a crop rotation are normal. The artificial intelligence sys- met with a whole bunch of college students, system. tem then uses this knowledge base to diag- and not one of them could find the area of We’ve all seen overspecialization in medi- nose patients. That is bottom-up thinking, a circle. I design hydraulic and pneumatic cine. I’m getting older, so I have to complain and that’s the same way people with autism equipment. You’ve got to be able to find the about my sciatic nerve and a bunch of other think. Verbal thinkers are top-down think- area of a circle! So I taught them old fash- problems I’ve got, so I’ll meet with friends ers, and they tend to overgeneralize. Educa- ioned practical math. to discuss all the stuff going wrong with us. tion has gone crazy on grandiose top-down My mind works like Google Images. Put One poor lady, within the last year, had a stuff that just doesn’t work for many kids. in a keyword, I get images. The hbo biop- whole lot of nasty symptoms and went to a A bottom-up thinker works like an epide- ic showed that perfectly. At the Academy’s lupus specialist at a top medical center. And miologist. Epidemiologists solve food poi- Friday night program, when I was listen- the lupus specialist did hive biopsies. I’m not soning cases through observation–what ing to that wonderful description of the owl kidding. Hive biopsies? Later, when she was was served, where was the food consumed, and what it ate, I was seeing the mice and down in Mexico, she got a rash, and the old where was it prepared, where did the in- bones and all that stuff. It painted me a pic- Mexican doctor said: “Well, you just need to gredients come from, who else suffered the ture of how the owl lives. Whether you’re take some Benadryl.” It turned out she was symptoms–until they can piece togeth- building a Cargill plant or a Tyson plant, or allergic to an ingredient in one of her medi- er that, for example, the lettuce from a cer- you’re building a nuclear reactor, or you’re cations. She got rid of the medication, took tain grower had E. coli on it. That’s the bot- just making a consumer electronic product, some Benadryl, and she was fine, no more tom-up approach. Concepts are formed you need all the different kinds of minds. symptoms. No hive biopsies needed; but from specific examples. Thomas Edison was not a mathematician. the specialist could only see what he knew. I think bottom-up. What would happen I think he was more likely a photo-realistic Isaac Asimov, the science fiction writer, to me today? I had no speech until age four. visual thinker, and he knew how important once said: “A degree is the first step down a I would probably get into a good child- this was: “I can always hire some mathema- ruinous highway. You don’t want to waste it hood early intervention program, which is ticians, but they can’t hire me,” he said. so you go on to graduate work and doctoral something they’re doing better now. If you

48 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 educating students who have different kinds of minds

have little kids that are not talking? Once letting go and allowing their kids to get out trains? That’s a real common one. Let’s you rule out deafness, you’ve got to do and learn basic life skills. My mother knew read about trains. Let’s do mathematics twenty hours a week of one-on-one teach- how to stretch me and get me doing new with trains. Physics with trains. Broaden it ing. I was taught turn-taking with board things, starting out with being a hostess at out. Use that specialized interest to moti- games, and by practicing taking turns in her dinner parties at age seven. I saw a thir- vate learning. conversation. I was severely autistic at age teen-year-old kid the other day, fully verbal, But I grew up in a different time. What three and learned to talk when I was four. I looked like a young man who should be on helped me in my childhood journey? First, would have been a prime candidate for vid- his way to Silicon Valley, but he had nev- an educated family. Mother read books to eo game addiction. What little bit of video er even gone shopping on his own. He had us. We were brought up to have an abso- game playing I’ve done has shown me it is never gone into a store, bought something, lute love of books and literature. She’d read a drug I absolutely cannot touch. checked it out, and brought back the change us parts of Dickens, and she’d skip the bor- Today I’d also have fewer opportunities and receipt. I was doing that at age seven. I ing parts. She always nurtured my inter- for hands-on learning at school, for devel- tell parents and teachers: “Don’t chuck ’em est and ability in art. I spent hours drawing oping art skills, and for work experience. into the deep end of the pool, but you gotta and making kites and helicopters. And you Many schools have eliminated all the hands- stretch ’em just outside their comfort zone.” know what? I recently tried to recreate one on classes: cooking, art, sewing, and wood of those kites and it wasn’t easy! I’ve got to working. This is a horrible mistake. I loved Helping Different Kinds of Minds experiment some more to get it to fly. Some- sewing. In fourth grade, I had a wonderful to Learn times it takes trying to replicate things as a little Singer sewing machine. Loved making When I get a chance to try out all the new grownup to see the challenges you could things with it! And it taught me skills I later brain scanning equipment, I do. It’s fun to take on as kid. The kites also taught me that I put to work. But kids aren’t making things in play around with state-of-the-art equip- could make mistakes, and I could learn from school anymore, and they miss the chance ment. But I have parents ask me all the time: them. A lot of kids today, they’re scared to to explore and use different skills or ways of working. The millwrights I worked with on My mother encouraged me to draw lots of different my corral projects were really smart people who built, designed, and repaired compli- things, to take what I was interested in and cated structures. They took welding in high expand on it. Does your kid like trains? That’s a school and it saved them. I know a guy who is dyslexic, adhd, bad stutterer, and was real common one. Let’s read about trains. Let’s a horrible student. In high school, he took welding and he now owns a metal fabrica- do mathematics with trains. Physics with trains. tion company. I’ve got to keep some confi- Broaden it out. Use that specialized interest to dentiality so I can’t tell you what he makes. But he is doing fine. Kids today aren’t learn- motivate learning. ing hands-on skills. Hands-on projects are important because they teach practical “Do I need to get my kid’s brain scanned?” death to make a mistake. They’ll destroy problem solving. We’re missing that. No–you don’t need a scan because both the work that’s not absolutely perfect. A lot of Instead of getting out and learning to kid’s areas of strength and learning prob- my kites didn’t work. When they didn’t fly, work, fully verbal, quirky kids who are dif- lems will show up in the classroom. And I just had to try something else. I moved on ferent get diagnosed with autism, adhd, you can respond to what shows up, and and tried again. or some other condition, because you need work with those strengths. I’ve got a big My favorite book as a child was about a diagnosis now to get special educational visual-thinking circuit, and when I was in famous inventors. I loved reading about services in school. This puts some families third grade, my ability to draw showed up. Thomas Edison and the light bulb, Elias and kids in a handicap mentality, where they My mother encouraged me to draw lots of Howe and his sewing machine, Eli Whitney believe they can’t work. Some moms over- different things, to take what I was interest- and the cotton gin, and the inventors of the protect their kids and they have difficulty ed in and expand on it. Does your kid like first mechanical reapers. I also lovedBlack

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 49 presentations

Beauty, both the grownup version that mother read to us and my childhood version. But how did a girl who lived outside of Boston, with a grandfather who lived on Me- morial Drive, looking out on the Charles Riv- er, get into cattle? Mother remarried when I was fourteen. That brought a ranch into the family. I was attending the Hampshire Coun- try School, a boarding school, and my mother wanted me to get out and try some new things so I wouldn’t become too set in my ways. At age fifteen I went out to the ranch. I was afraid to go at first. But she gave me a choice: I could go for a week, or I could go all summer–not going was not gonna be one of the choices! She knew just how hard to push me. And I ended up loving it. On the ranch Aunt Ann helped me learn to build gates, to drive, and to type. And I could apply some of what I learned at the Hampshire School. Figure 1: Early Drawing of a Cattle Corral When I was away at the Hampshire School, I did very little studying. I learned I was saved by finite math courses, espe- other class, we could get into experimen- carpentry; I learned roofing; I learned rid- cially statistics and probability. In 1967, alge- tal psychology and optical illusions, which ing and horse barn management, all kinds bra wasn’t required for college. So with the spoke to my interests. of things like that. The headmaster realized help of my mother, who talked to the dean, I was learning how to work. But I did well in I was accepted to Franklin Pierce College, Starting My Business two subjects: biology and writing. I learned which was only two years old at the time up Yes, I was weird. So how did I start a business how to write because in fourth grade, the in Rindge, New Hampshire. I was now mo- designing corrals? The meat industry had teachers marked-up my work in red pen; tivated to study because I wanted to become no academic barrier of entry; it was full of they copyedited it. That’s not the practice a scientist. After I failed my first math quiz, quirky people who had taken welding class today, but that’s how I learned to write. wonderful Mr. Dion, a brand new math or drafting class in school, and who were Some kids learn diagramming sentences. teacher, tutored me. (Back in those days, now building and designing things. I found That’s not for me. help to avoid failing a course was called get- a place there. How did I impress potential My work experience was varied; I didn’t ting tutored.) With a ton of work, I man- clients? By showing a portfolio of my work. overspecialize. I got a sewing job in the aged to get a B, as in beautiful, both semes- I sold my work by showing off my draw- neighborhood at age thirteen that allowed ters I took finite math. I entered college on ings (Figure 1). When I would show peo- me to save some money and buy a few real- probation and graduated second in my class. ple my drawings, they’d go, “You did that?” ly ugly striped shirts that my mother hated What I really loved in college was animal Couldn’t believe it. I didn’t have the mon- and I loved–she’d “lose” them in the laun- behavior. I was lucky that a retired profes- ey to advertise in farm magazines, but I’d dry. I cleaned horse stalls at fifteen, did roof- sor–and I think he was from Harvard, Dr. write about my designs in articles for them. ing at sixteen. And I’m not suggesting roof- Tom Evans–came in twice a week to teach I also had a very nice brochure (Figure 2). ing to parents of autistic children today. I’m classical ethology. This was during the time They’re how I sold Cargill on my designs. suggesting learning how to shop. I’m sug- of B. F. Skinner and the belief that operant I sent Bill Fielding, the head of Cargill, the gesting maybe editing some video at the conditioning explained everything. In Dr. brochure, that drawing of my design, and a church office just down the street. Simple, Evans’s class, I learned that animals have a bunch of my photographs and articles. As a harmless stuff–but real. lot of hardwired instinctual behavior. In an- result, I eventually designed a front-end of

50 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 educating students who have different kinds of minds

Percentage of Beef Plants that Stunned 95 Percent or More Cattle with the First Shot

100 USDA survey 9 9 prior to 9 9 industry-wide 80 auditing

McDonald’s audits start 60

Continued auditing by 40 major customers: continuous auditing 20 maintains good performance

0 1996 1999 2000 2001 2002 2009

Figure 2: Grandin Livestock Handling Figure 3: Results of Five-Outcome Assessments Systems Brochure every Cargill beef plant in the United States many fell down during handling; 3) how score in 2015 is about 99.7 percent. They and Canada. many were mooing their heads off during can’t get any better than that. And the one When I was young, I thought I could fix handling, 4) how many you put the electric they miss, they immediately re-shoot it, be- everything with engineering. If I could just prodder on; and 5) they have to be 100 per- cause you automatically fail the audit if you build a perfect thing, it would all be fine. cent dead before you cut anything off. We hang the cow on the line alive. They need- Then, in 1996, I was hired by the usda to went in there and first made them fix all the ed these simple five-outcome scores to im- survey handling and stunning practices in broken equipment–the busted side adjust- prove, not vague instructions to “handle beef and pork slaughter plants. I found that ers on my center track restrainer, broken hy- cattle properly.” only 30 percent of the plants could shoot 95 draulics on my center track restrainer, and percent of cattle dead on the first shot. You so on. Then we had them install nonslip Different Kids of Minds Complement know why they were so bad? Busted equip- flooring. We also worked with lighting: cat- Each Other ment! Broken equipment. This is a manage- tle don’t like the dark, but if you put a light Let’s look at who does what in heavy comment problem, a people problem; you can up in the right place, they’ll go toward it. mercial construction. There are the drafts- only fix half the problems with engineering. Out of the seventy-five pork and beef plants men, who usually get stuck in the basement In 1999, I was hired by the McDonald’s audited, only three had to build an expen- service corridor with all the cable trays. They Corporation to teach their food safety audi- sive new front-end. With everybody else, don’t get enough respect. They aren’t de- tors how to audit animal welfare at slaugh- we fixed the simple things: made repairs, greed engineers, but they lay out the whole ter plants. I developed a very simple scoring installed lighting, put up a solid panel so the plant, including all the complicated convey- system using five simple, measurable out- cattle didn’t see people walking by. With or systems. In an airport, they’d lay out all come variables that were like traffic rules. these changes the plants very quickly and the baggage conveyors. The millwrights, the They were 1) percentage of cattle stunned very dramatically improved their numbers weird guys in the shop, invent all the really with a captive bolt on the first shot; 2) how (Figure 3). The average first-shot stunning intricate, interesting mechanical engineer-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 51 presentations

Good collaboration requires different kinds Sadly our education system is screening out kids who think in different ways. So of minds. . . . Sadly our education system is the right people might not be there to work on tomorrow’s projects. There’s two mil- screening out kids who think in different ways. lion people right now that have no electri- So the right people might not be there to work cal power because of Hurricane Matthew, and it’s a lot of quirky, different guys who on tomorrow’s projects. are gonna go out there after the storm and put those wires back up. Utilities are hiring ing equipment. The new stuff. And the de- Learning how my visual thinking is dif- right now. We can’t afford to screen out stu- greed engineers, they’ll do the more abstract ferent and the ways it contributes in group dents with unique skills who might succeed work: boilers, refrigeration, steam pipes, projects has been an interesting journey. in these roles, or even reshape an industry. soil compaction, roof truss calculation. But When I was in my twenties and thirties, I The world needs all kinds of minds. n the thing is, you need the whole team. The didn’t understand that other people didn’t roles complement each other, and you can’t think in pictures the way I did. I didn’t un- © 2017 by Temple Grandin get the job done without each type of person derstand that they couldn’t see the visual on the team. So we’ve got to see to it that all mistakes like I could. But when I learned references kinds of thinkers can learn how to work, and how my visual thinking was different from Frank Lewis Dyer and Thomas Commerford learn the skills they need to succeed at work. verbal thinking, it gave me insight into Martin, Edison, His Life and Inventions (Auckland, Plant managers right now are going crazy how different people’s brains approach New Zealand: The Floating Press, 2010). because they can’t find industrial mechan- problem solving. Temple Grandin, “Double Rail (Center Track) Restrainer for Livestock Handling,” Journal of ics. The trucking companies are going nuts The first step of good collaboration in Agricultural Engineering Research 41 (4) (1988): because they can’t get diesel mechanics. You science or on any project is recognizing 327–338. think robots are gonna fix all these trucks? that there are different kinds of thinkers. Temple Grandin, “Objective Scoring of Animal That’s nonsense. Artificial intelligence I worked with a lady named Camille King, Handling and Stunning Practices in Slaughter might be able to diagnose some of the prob- a fabulous dog behavior specialist. She ob- Plants,” Journal of the American Veterinary Mate- rial Association 212 (1998): 36–39. lems, but the industry needs these people. served that dogs get gray hair the same way Temple Grandin, “Transferring Results of Be- Don’t underestimate what diesel mechanics that presidents do, and that it’s the anx- havioral Research to Industry to Improve Ani- can do. I’ve worked with a bunch of talented ious, impulsive stressed dogs that got gray. mal Welfare on the Farm, Ranch, and Slaughter skilled trades people. Pretty sure most are on We had a great statistician, our mathemat- Plant,” Applied Animal Behavior Science 81 (2003): the autism spectrum or dyslexic. ical thinker. My part of the work was figur- 215–228. Science fields are dominated by the more ing out which photographs we should use Meg Green, Jane Goodall: A Biography (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 2005). verbal and mathematical thinkers. You for judging the different degrees of gray. Camille King, Thomas J. Smith, Temple Gran- need that thinking to run a controlled ex- There had to be clear categories of graying din, and Peter Borchelt, “Anxiety and Impulsiv- periment. But observation, the strength of dog muzzles for us to get interobserver reli- ity: Factors Associated with Premature Gray- visual thinkers, is a key part of science, too. ability. I did the methods part of the exper- ing in Young Dogs,” Applied Animal Behavior Look at astronomy, which has always relied iment and Camille did hours of work col- Science (in press), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.applanim.2016.09.013. on the observation powers of the naked eye lecting data on many dogs. But we needed Dale Peterson, Jane Goodall: The Woman Who or observation through instruments. Look different kinds of minds to complete the re- Helped Redefine Man (Boston: Houghton Miff- at epidemiology, which tends to begin with search. One more example: iPhones. Steve lin, 2006). anecdotal reports. What Jane Goodall did Jobs was an artist. You don’t need a Ph.D. in Ashlee Vance, Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the was observation. At five years old, she went engineering to operate the phone because Quest for a Fantastic Future (New York: Eco Press, out to the neighbor’s henhouse to figure out an artistic visual thinker designed the easy- 2015). how the chickens laid their eggs. Observa- to-use interface. The engineers just had to To view or listen to the presentation, tion doesn’t get enough credit, but you’d make the insides work. You needed both ap- visit https://www.amacad.org/ struggle in the sciences without it. proaches to build a good phone. templegrandin.

52 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 presentations

Populism and the Future of American Politics

n November 10, 2016–two days after the election of Donald Trump as the forty-fifth president of the United States–Charles Stewart III (Kenan Sahin Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute O of Technology), Lawrence D. Bobo (W. E. B. Du Bois Professor of the Social Sciences, Harvard University), and Jennifer L. Hochschild (Henry LaBarre Jayne Professor of Government and Professor of African and African American Studies, Harvard University) discussed “Populism and the Future of American Politics.” The program, which served as the Academy’s 2045th Stated Meeting, was introduced by Jonathan F. Fanton (President of the American Academy). What follows is an edited transcript of the discussion.

Donald Trump’s campaign provided very few specifics about how he proposes to address the underlying issues that made his populist appeal successful. If his policy proposals don’t show results in short order, has he unleashed a political force that even he can’t contain? In other words, could the future hold mainstream politicians who will be more Trumpian than Trump himself?

plugged into populist urgings, both from economist Jed Kolko reported that the vote the right and the left. Indeed, even if Don- swing from Romney in 2012 to Trump in 2016 ald Trump had received one percentage point was greatest in counties where the economy less of the popular vote on Tuesday in a couple is most likely to be based on routine tasks, Charles Stewart III states, leading to a different outcome, the arc such as manufacturing, retail sales, and cler- Charles Stewart III is the Kenan Sahin Distin- of the general election confirms that we are in ical work–precisely the tasks that could be guished Professor of Political Science at the unsettled times in which populist appeals are eliminated easily through automation. Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the quite powerful across the political spectrum. This election reveals a lot about the mix of MIT Director of the Caltech/MIT Voting Tech- We are meeting two days after the gener- globalization, stagnating work skills, racial nology Project. He was elected a Fellow of the al election, with its stark outcome that will tensions, economic inequality, and the like. American Academy in 2011. land Donald Trump in the Oval Office next What it doesn’t necessarily reveal is what the January 20. Everyone in this room knows future holds, both for policy and for politics. that his message was specifically directed at As for policy, Donald Trump’s campaign ometimes when you make plans sever- voters–and specifically white working class provided very few specifics about how he Sal months ahead of time, you never re- voters–in ways that appealed to anger over proposes to address the underlying issues alize what a great opportunity you’ll have. the long-term loss of jobs and status. The that made his populist appeal successful. When we decided at the end of the summer postelection analysis reveals that this ap- If his policy proposals don’t show results to participate in this panel and to organize it peal worked. We see it in the exit polls, and in short order, has he unleashed a political around the theme of “populism and the fu- we see it in macroanalysis. For instance, in a force that even he can’t contain? In other ture of American politics,” we had already ex- posting today on fivethirtyeight.com, which words, could the future hold mainstream perienced a presidential nomination process I think is trying to redeem itself after a mis- politicians who will be more Trumpian than in which major candidates from each party erable season of primary predictions, the Trump himself?

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 53 presentations

And there is of course the question of how deep, puzzling question: how on earth did Democrats respond to the fact that they are we get here? losing hold on a population that used to be The short answer is threefold: first, we’ve a core part of the party constituency. The just experienced an electoral contest in Democratic Party has largely embraced the which a billionaire Republican was able to new economy and globalization, and those more effectively cast himself as a champion who benefit from the new economy and glo- of the lower, working, and middle classes balization probably outnumber those who than his Democratic rival; this was in part don’t. The Democrats could wait it out. made possible, second, by the power of race However, Donald Trump has shown that and racial prejudice in our national politics the intensity of appeals to those losing out and political discourse, and, frankly, third, to the new economy can beat a larger group by a sort of paralysis that comes about by that may be complacent. the powers of the economic elite and fear of But finally, of course, the appeal of Bernie direct appeals to minority voters. Sanders to a significant portion of the Dem- I want to begin by recalling for all of you ocratic base is also evidence that the genie is the old term Reagan Democrats, and I want out of the bottle on the left, too. Is there a re- to read you a paragraph from the definitive sponse in the Democratic Party that can ap- Lawrence D. Bobo book on the subject, Chain Reaction: The Im- peal to disaffected voters on both sides of the Lawrence D. Bobo is the W. E. B. Du Bois Profes- pact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Pol- political spectrum, or are we in an era in which sor of the Social Sciences at Harvard University, itics by journalists Thomas and Mary Edsall. distinct populisms will grow in response to a where he holds appointments in the Department They were trying to understand why Repub- common set of political concerns? licans kept winning the White House, and, of Sociology and the Department of African and There is a lot to be said on the topic of pop- based on research by pollster Stanley Green- African American Studies. He was elected a Fel- ulism and the future of American politics, berg, they offered the following diagnosis: low of the American Academy in 2006. and I don’t want to delay too long getting These white Democratic defectors ex- to our panelists, who actually know some- press a profound distaste for blacks, a thing about this topic. When we were think- ’m going to engage this topic as some- sentiment that pervades almost every- ing about how to focus our remarks this eve- one who’s trying to finish a book on the I thing they think about government and ning, there was a very good chance that the question of postracialism in America, and politics. Blacks constitute the explana- result of the election could turn on questions I’m going to pivot off that possibility in tion for their vulnerability and for al- of election law and administration, which is most of my remarks here this evening. Prej- most everything that has gone wrong one of the areas I work in. Donald Trump’s udice and politics have been intertwined in in their lives; not being black is what repeated charges that the electoral process the United States throughout my lifetime. constitutes being middle class; not liv- was “rigged” worried many of us in this field Indeed, one could say the same thing about ing with blacks is what makes a neigh- that the result itself would be contested, and the full arc of the development and transfor- borhood a decent place to live. The that we would find ourselves today not know- mation of the United States of America over special status of blacks is perceived by ing who the next president would be. For bet- its nearly three-hundred-year history. Yet almost all of these individuals as a seri- ter or worse, that ended up not being the case, the current moment does feel like a time of ous obstacle to their personal advance- and all accounts suggest that Tuesday’s elec- deeply acute polarization and, unexpected- ment. Indeed, discrimination against tion was pretty typical, as far as administer- ly, almost indigestible racialized divisions, whites has become a well-assimilated ing elections goes. So we can focus here on political identity divisions, and ideological and ready explanation for their status, the meaning of the election from a substan- divisions. As we near the end of a second vulnerability, and failures. tive perspective, although issues of the legiti- term for a popular African American pres- macy of the electoral process still linger. ident, having just elected as our next presi- We might now just replace that word dent a man who many believe ran an openly “blacks,” or add to it “Mexican immi- bigoted campaign, we’re confronted with a grants,” and we’ve updated that analysis

54 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 populism and the future of american politics

to 2016. Surely, it will not surprise many of of appeals to black and minority voters. I’ll Brookings Institution senior fellow William you here this evening, but America has nei- come back to that at the end. Frey have shown that 64 percent of the U.S. ther shed nor, in my estimation, honest- For most of the period from 1945 to 1973, as population could be classified as white in ly confronted its legacy of racism or, more our economy grew, incomes grew for every- 2010. Between 2010 and 2050, that percent- provocatively, white supremacy. There are one, and the income gap between the most age is expected to steadily decline, with the deep, ongoing, and highly adaptive condi- affluent and the least affluent in the Unit- United States probably becoming a major- tions of racism at the institutional, cultural, ed States actually shrank. A quite different ity-minority population by 2040. In fact, and individual levels that prefigure and play story has characterized the post-1973 peri- we hit one important benchmark five years out in our national political discourse. I be- od, particularly the post-1980 era. Since the ago, when the majority of new births in this lieve there are strong prohibitions against Great Recession, a disproportionate share of country were children of color. Experimen- direct, honest discourse on this matter, and I income and wealth has gone upward to the tal research shows that when presented hope tonight we can consider some of those. already most well-off segments of the popu- with evidence of these demographic trends, Scholars will surely look back on these times lation. A recent report from the Institute for many white Americans tend to express a and observe, as philosophers of race Rob- Policy Studies emphasized that income dis- sense of threat from minorities and a great- ert Gooding-Williams and Charles Mills parities have become so pronounced that er emotional animosity toward them. They also begin to think, even more than they may have already, in zero-sum terms about As we near the end of a second term for a popular opportunities and resources. Moreover, African American president, having just elected as our there’s some experimental work showing that drawing attention to these demograph- next president a man who many believe ran an openly ic terms has direct political effects. Psychol- ogists Maureen Craig and Jennifer Rich- bigoted campaign, we’re confronted with a deep, eson found that experimentally manipulat- puzzling question: how on earth did we get here? ing awareness of this racial population shift increases white identification with conser- vative political ideologies and the Republi- have written, “It was the most postracial of America’s top 10 percent of earners now can Party. times, it was the least postracial of times.” make, on average, nearly nine times the in- Enter Donald Trump. It should surprise I believe that only when we get beyond the come of the bottom 90 percent. Moreover, no one that this nexus of conditions–sharp- fallacy of colorblindness and the distorting the top 1 percent of the population now ly rising inequality and an increasingly acute narrative of postracialism that we can hope holds a share of wealth roughly equivalent sense of economic vulnerability for lower- to rise to a point of honest, clear-eyed en- to that of the same population at the time of and middle-income Americans, in the con- gagement with how and why politics, preju- the onset of the Great Depression. For much text of rapid population change as we transi- dice, and polarization so often roil our dem- of the past two decades, the real value of in- tion from a solid majority white population ocratic and collective lives. come stagnated for the middle-income dis- to a nation without a clear ethnoracial dom- In the brief time I have here, I want to tribution, and those in the lower quintiles inant group–opens the door to a powerful- draw attention to three points of contradic- actually saw their purchasing power decline. ly resonant blend of antiminority populism. tion: one, stemming from the tensions in- These economic trends have consequences: But what role has partisanship played in the volving the conflict of simultaneous growth more and more Americans are experiencing routine mobilization of race in our body of income inequality and of ethnoracial di- a sense of serious economic vulnerability and politic? versity of the population; two, the tensions worry that they’re not going to be able to pass If we were to go back to the presidential that arise from both deepening partisan- on better prospects to their children. contest of 1956 or 1960, you would find that ship, on the one hand, and what has become At the same moment, we’ve witnessed the major party platforms of the Republican the routine racialization of our politics, on a sharp rise in the share of the population and Democratic Parties contained largely the other; and three, this paralysis around coming from Asia and Latin America, as similar language about issues of civil rights the power of the economic elite, versus fear well as other parts of the globe. Figures by and race. Indeed, both parties, at that time,

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 55 presentations

actively competed for the black vote, to a can to constrain the influence of Democratic ing America back,” and then in 2016, we re- degree. So there is no necessary connection voters, who increasingly are minorities. Not turn to Reagan’s 1980 slogan, “make Amer- between partisanship and issues of race. Be- only is race thus increasingly aligned with ica great again.” The rhetoric of the Trump ginning with the 1964 election, however, the voting by party identification, but political campaign is not some strange aberration, two major parties began to sharply diverge scientists and political psychologists have but merely the next iteration in a worri- on issues of civil rights and race. Ultimate- shown us that attitudes that we would char- some pattern and trend. The racially tinged ly, the Democratic Party clearly became the acterize as racial resentments play an in- reaction against the passage of the Afford- party of the effective governmental enforce- creasingly strong role in defining the mean- able Care Act, the emergence of the Tea Par- ment of full citizenship for African Ameri- ing of those party attachments. The end re- ty, the solidification of Republican intran- cans. With that came a sea change in partisan sult is what legal scholar Ian Haney López sigence in the House and Senate, must be alignments. The South went from being sol- has termed “dog-whistle politics.” Given read, at least in part, through a racial lens. idly Democrat-controlled to largely Republi- improved racial attitudes and the successes Donald Trump’s openly bigoted demoniza- can-controlled. Black loyalty to the party of of the civil rights era, however, openly bigot- tion of those of Hispanic heritage, especial- Lincoln, once something you could take for ed appeals are fraught with the risk of back- ly Mexican Americans, when he launched granted, started to weaken during the Frank- firing, at least if directed at African Ameri- his candidacy would be astounding, except lin Roosevelt and New Deal era, accelerated cans (the same can’t yet be said of Mexicans, that it is of a piece with the long-standing under President Kennedy, and vanished and as we’ve just seen). But carefully crafted slo- practice of dog-whistle politics and tacit racial appeals. Trump merely exploited the vulnerabilities of the moment, and upped Race has always been an ingredient of American the ante. Those who underestimated the national politics. Its salience, explicitness, and power of this appeal included sixteen major mainstream career Republican politi- centrality vary from one election cycle to the next, cians, including some with otherwise bank- able Republican political credentials and but it’s never been an irrelevance. We’ve got to huge financial backing. Witness Jeb Bush. forget this postracial fantasy. What is the bottom line? We inhabit a troubling moment of alignment of race, and racial-policy-related commitments, with ba- was replaced by a near-complete capture– gans and rhetoric that play on underlying ra- sic party identities. This is not a healthy cir- and I do mean that word capture–by the cial resentments and sensitivities has been a cumstance for our democracy. Democratic Party in subsequent years. routine staple of Republican Party politics. My third and final point here is the paral- An unfortunate effect of these develop- Thus, in Nixon’s 1968 campaign, we get ysis produced by the power of an econom- ments is that both major parties, to a degree, the Southern strategy and “law and order” ic elite that is constraining political dis- depend on racial division for their electoral message. In 1980, we see Reagan launch his course, and fear of appealing to and mobi- success. On the one hand, then, in a context campaign for the White House in Philadel- lizing the power of minority voters. If I had in which Republicans are content to com- phia, Mississippi, where civil rights work- to diagnose the current moment, I’d go back pletely cede the black vote, Democrats only ers Andrew Goodman, Michael Schwerner, to where I started: somehow, a billionaire, need to do so much to expect black loyalty. and James Chaney were murdered, with a who has a gold-plated toilet in his rooftop After all, where are black voters going to go? speech calling for the enforcement of states’ condominium in Manhattan, has a stronger So even under Obama, nothing you could rights. Reagan also frequently deployed the appeal to poorly educated, working-class construe as a truly strong minority or black “welfare queen” stereotype, or later that of whites than a woman running as the head agenda is articulated within the confines the “strapping young buck” using govern- of the Democratic Party with some of the of major party politics. On the other hand, ment-provided food stamps and welfare to greatest egalitarian credentials in politics especially as the population changes, the live better than the rest of “hard-working you might have. How does that happen? Republican Party worries more and more America.” By 1988, we get Willie Horton. One explanation is that she wouldn’t go af- about mobilizing its base, and doing what it In 2010 and 2012, we hear chants of “tak- ter Wall Street, at least not in the way Bernie

56 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 populism and the future of american politics

Sanders did. Clinton’s campaign was clear- intolerance. If anything, a two-term Obama ly afraid to say, “I’m going to represent you presidency signals something important guys against these economic elites.” That about the majoritarian character of the economic message just wasn’t there, espe- mass public at this point, underlying racial cially at the end, when her whole campaign inequality and division notwithstanding, was directed against Trump, and not for the and the real ultimate closeness in the over- rest of you. all vote–and, in fact, Hillary won the over- The alternative is to say she failed to dou- all vote. Second, the success of the Trump ble down on the Obama coalition, recogniz- candidacy should worry us all the same, being that Obama got reelected in 2012 by hy- cause it didn’t implode. In this context of per-black turnout, more than replacing the economic anxiety, rising inequality, popula-

We inhabit a troubling moment of alignment of race, and racial-policy-related commitments, with basic party identities. This is not a healthy circumstance for our democracy. two million white votes he lost with two tion change, and enduring problems of rac- million–plus African American voters. And ism and racial inequality, there’s something here’s the thing that hasn’t gotten much there that needs to arouse real concern, and coverage to this point: in the upper Mid- to be fought against with vigor, because it’s west states that Clinton lost–and I’m going not hard to envision scenarios in which this to include Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn- dangerous mix becomes even more divisive sylvania–the entire margin of Trump’s vic- and volatile. Third, to reiterate the point I tory in each of those states can be account- started on, race has always been an ingre- ed for by her lower black percentage vote, dient of American national politics. Its sa- and lower black turnout, compared with lience, explicitness, and centrality vary from Obama. I want you to think about that. As it one election cycle to the next, but it’s never turns out, despite what you might have read been an irrelevance. We’ve got to forget this in the National Review, if Obama had gotten postracial fantasy. The only way to make just his 2012 numbers, and Trump had ex- progress on racial issues is to face them di- actly his 2016 numbers, Obama would have rectly and honestly. Assuming these in- been elected to a third term. equalities, identities, and divisions are not It is not my intention to sound an unre- there, or are somehow just willy-nilly and mittingly pessimistic note. If there are take- will naturally heal themselves, is a serious aways here, they are perhaps threefold. First, error, as Donald Trump just proved beyond the current moment is best read as complex. all doubt. Thank you very much. Changes in our institutions and norms, and in the outlooks and attitudes of the mass of Americans, have been significant, and are not easily overridden or reversed. There are clearly contending political alliances out there. There’s no single, overarching axis of

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 57 presentations

As one of my students pointed out, in the end this is a partisan story. Some prominent Republicans said, “Never Trump,” and many Republicans may still have concerns about our next president. . . . Nonetheless, on balance: Republicans voted for Trump, and Democrats voted for Clinton.

bit of data, let’s see if we can trace where this Finally, looking at the overall vote; as one thing came from. Why did Trump win the of my students pointed out, in the end this election, but more broadly, what are the con- is a partisan story. Some prominent Repub- tours and elements of right-wing populism? licans said, “Never Trump,” and many Re- The first thing to look at is the turnout. publicans may still have concerns about our As Larry just explained, turnout was down next president. So we may see a lot more Jennifer L. Hochschild in 2016, and not just among black voters, ac- controversy in Congress than one would Jennifer L. Hochschild is the Henry LaBarre cording to the incomplete results that we expect, given that the same party will con- Jayne Professor of Government at Harvard Uni- now have available. We had an enormous- trol the executive and a majority in both versity, Professor of African and African Amer- ly engaged population in terms of interest houses. Nonetheless, on balance: Republi- and visibility, but for a bunch of reasons we cans voted for Trump, and Democrats vot- ican Studies, and former Harvard College Pro- could spend a long time studying, turnout ed for Clinton. (Independents did vote more fessor. She holds lectureships in the Harvard overall was down a percentage point or two for Trump than they did for Clinton, which Kennedy School and Harvard Graduate School from 2012–again, if current calculations was not the case in 2012.) So we have a big of Education. She is currently Chair of the Gov- hold up once all votes are counted. As Larry partisan story, along with a complicated de- ernment Department. She was elected a Fellow has also just told us, if turnout among parts mographic story. of the American Academy in 1996. of the population had been one or two per- Moving more deeply into the election re- centage points higher in just a few states, the sults than voting percentages alone permit, s Charles mentioned, we had been toy- outcome would have looked different. I want briefly to talk through a series of po- A ing with this topic for some time, and Setting aside overall turnout and focus- tential explanations for the growth of U.S. I had prepared two or three different ver- ing instead on vote shares among the can- populism, before spending a little time on sions of this talk. The one that I was de- didates, the short version of the story is that how they combine. Note that here I am of- veloping systematically over the last week in almost all population groups, the 2016 fering only suggestions of the kind of evi- or two began with the challenge of–once Democratic candidate, which is to say Clin- dence you’d need for a serious, full-fledged Clinton wins the election–reincorporating ton, won a slightly smaller share than did debate, but it’s a start. those forty or fifty million Trump support- Obama in 2012. Consider that Trump had an Let’s look first at the change in wealth ers, those voters we might think of as a pop- enormous advantage over Clinton among distribution in the United States since 1984 ulist population, and gaining their support whites with no college degree. Clinton re- for various segments of the population. for the new Democratic agenda, or at least ceived a much higher share of the black, From 1984 to 2005, the bottom quarter of their acceptance of the legitimacy of the Latino, and Asian American votes, but for the population, in terms of wealth hold- new administration. I dropped that speech, all three groups, it was a slightly smaller ing, basically held their own, although they for obvious reasons. Instead, like many of share than Obama received in 2012. So her didn’t gain any wealth either. Following the you, I’ve spent the last couple of days trying majority from these groups just wasn’t great 2007 crash, the bottom quartile lost an enor- to figure out what just happened. And that’s enough to win the states she needed. This is mous amount of its wealth, and it hasn’t re- what I’d like to do tonight: aided by a little a major pattern in the data. covered any ground since 2013, the last year

58 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 populism and the future of american politics

for which we have data. The median wealth Other data show the same pattern: rela- questions might inform us: “Is the country holder followed a similar script, with a slight tively high support for Trump even among on the right track or the wrong track?” “Do rise of wealth up through the early 2000s, those who reject his expressed views on Mus- you trust the elites?” “Do you believe that and considerable decline since 2007. The lims, Mexicans, or President Obama, along public officials act in the interests of people 75th percentile lost wealth in the Great Re- with very strong support among those who like you?” “Do you think public officials un- cession, but still ended up marginally better share those views. Thus right-wing populism derstand the problems of people like you?” off in 2013 than in 1984. The 90th percentile has not only a strong class story, but also a But more simply, let’s look once again at the also lost a little in 2007, but this did not off- race, ethnicity, and immigration component. 2016 exit poll: “What are your feelings about set their massive gains in wealth since 1984. There’s a third possible explanation of the federal government?” Here respondents Most dramatically, the 95th percentile has right-wing populism: a focus on gender. had four choices: “enthusiastic,” “satis- increased their share of wealth by about 90 We heard many challenges from Trump fied,” “dissatisfied,” or “angry.” Only 6 per- percent since 1984, despite the 2007–2008 and his supporters about Hillary Clinton’s cent of respondents said they were enthusi- crash. So the median wealth-holders and the looks, stamina, and capacity to be com- astic, and another 24 percent were satisfied. least wealthy Americans have lost the most mander-in-chief. And you have all seen the That means that three in ten voters were on since 1984, and especially since 2007, while bumper sticker, “Trump That Bitch,” and the positive end of this spectrum–not a lot. the best-off have gained. (You could tell the the like. But rather than focus on Hillary, I Of this group, 20 percent voted for Trump. same story about income, but wealth, in the long run, is a more important measure.) There’s clearly a class story here. A non- There’s clearly a class story here. A nontrivial fraction trivial fraction of the population, roughly of the population, roughly half, are a lot worse off than half, are a lot worse off than their families had been four, five, or six years ago–and no better their families had been four, five, or six years ago – and off than their parents had been–and there’s no reason for them to think that they or their no better off than their parents had been – and there’s children are going to be any better off moving no reason for them to think that they or their children forward. That is frightening and infuriating. Of course, there’s also a race, ethnicity, are going to be any better off moving forward. That is and immigration story that must be parsed to frightening and infuriating. understand the rise in right-wing American populism. These stories aren’t identical, but they’re all entwined in the Trump campaign thought it would be more interesting to look The “dissatisfied” group, almost half, split and in this election in complicated ways. In at the broader question in the exit poll: “Does evenly between Trump and Clinton. But a the most comprehensive exit poll from the Trump’s treatment of women bother you?” quarter of the population described them- 2016 election, with about twenty-five thou- Seventy percent of American voters said yes, selves as “angry”–a strong word in a public sand respondents in hundreds of precincts, it bothers them; but of that group, 30 per- opinion survey–and three-fourths of them for example, 70 percent of the surveyed pop- cent still voted for Trump. The remaining 30 voted for Trump. ulation agreed that “Illegal immigrants work- percent of the whole were not bothered by We also have to look at context. One ver- ing in the United States should be offered le- Trump’s behavior toward women, and unsur- sion of the story is that virtually every city gal status,” as opposed to “should be deport- prisingly, the vast majority of them voted for voted for Clinton, and every noncity voted for ed.” If you believe these data, then, American Trump. This expressed unconcern about–or Trump. That may not be exact, but it’s a good voters are not flat-out xenophobic. Nonethe- hostility to–gender equality is reinforced by starting point. This is a very old trope, the ur- less, one-third of those who favor offering le- Trump’s strength among women voters, es- ban-rural, urban-suburban, big town–small gal status to the undocumented still voted for pecially white women and even well-educat- town division. It goes back to Thomas Jeffer- Trump. Of the 30 percent of the population ed white women. That’s remarkable. son, it goes back to the Bible, it goes back to, who endorse deportation, of course, a major- Another possibility: is populism about I’ve been told, Gilgamesh, and it’s more pow- ity voted for Trump. distrust of government? A host of survey erful now than ever in U.S. elections.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 59 presentations

how to characterize the different varieties of One way of understanding right-wing populism is, populism. roughly speaking, that racism, sexism, xenophobia, One way of understanding right-wing populism is, roughly speaking, that racism, and religious prejudice are embedded in the nature sexism, xenophobia, religious prejudice of class antagonisms: they are constitutive of (and prejudice against sexuality and gender identity, although those were less salient in contemporary populism in the United States this campaign) are embedded in the nature of class antagonisms: they are constitutive and elsewhere. of contemporary populism in the United States and elsewhere. Hostility to govern- But other contexts are equally important. portion of Trump supporters: the counties ment, fears about the future, discourage- Let’s look at counties that went for Trump are rural or at least not urban, economical- ment about the economic and employment in the primaries of Super Tuesday. What we ly depressed, and disproportionately com- prospects for myself and my family are caus- see in the data is that the higher the death prised of residents who seem psychologi- ally linked to racism, sexism, and xenopho- rate among middle-aged whites in a coun- cally and interpersonally depressed as well. bia. The logic here is: “Immigrants are tak- ty, the greater the share of votes that Trump At this point, I want to stop examining the ing our jobs, blacks are getting too much got, compared with other Republicans. In- data and reflect for a minute on how to make government money, and women are aban- creasingly, the high and perhaps rising sense of what we’re seeing. Anybody who’s doning their traditional roles in society and death rate for adult whites is a consequence taken a history course knows something the family–all of which is harming my fam- of alcohol use, obesity, opioids, suicide, and about the phenomenon of leftist populism. ily’s and my community’s situation.” Sim- a variety of diseases that correlate with peo- We typically think of William Jennings Bryan, ply: “My family is suffering because those ple living pretty terrible lives; people living though the 1890s Populist movement is a little Others have allied with government elites.” in such communities are disproportionately complicated, given that “left” and “right” to- There’s a second way of thinking about Trump supporters. day don’t quite mean what they did a century populism–and this is the slightly more be- The New York Times offered more context ago. Still, roughly speaking, we would iden- nign version of Trumpian populism, if there for the primaries by examining census data tify the Populist movement of the American is such a thing. In this version, racial, gen- for characteristics of people residing in coun- Midwest as a phenomenon of the left, much dered, and xenophobic views are not causal- ties that supported Trump on Super Tuesday. of which got incorporated into Progressive ly linked to class-based populism, but rather High percentages of whites with less than a era and New Deal laws and policies. Huey are additive. You could remove the dislike of high school education; of people who iden- Long was a kind of left populist; perhaps you the Other, for example, without eliminating tify their ancestry on the census as “Amer- could call Andrew Jackson a leftist populist, the core populist story of context and eco- ican”; of mobile homes in the county; of though only with regard to white Americans; nomic change. In simple terms, this would “old economy” jobs, including manufactur- there is a radical leftist populism in Greece to- be: “My family is doing badly because of ing and retail jobs that are, as Charles men- day. We might include Bernie Sanders in this those government elites, and I don’t want a tioned, relatively easily automated or off- group, although it’s a little hard to figure out woman or black or Muslim president.” shored; of voters who had supported George exactly how to characterize him. In a third form of populism, race, gender, Wallace; of evangelical Christians and of na- But setting aside complexities of the left, and xenophobia aren’t a central part of the tive-born Americans–all had strongly pos- the point is that what we’re seeing with story. Populist fury is driven by class anxiet- itive correlations with support for Trump. Trump, like what we saw with George Wal- ies and antagonisms: “government elites, or Labor force participation rates went the op- lace or Father Coughlin, is a right-wing or Wall Street bankers, or pointy-headed aca- posite way: the higher the share of the pop- reactionary populism. It is not unique to the demics are causing my family and my com- ulation in that county who participate in the United States, of course–consider Brexit, munity to suffer and lose our economic secu- labor force, the less support Trump received. France’s Marine Le Pen, The Netherlands’ rity and mobility.” With this sort of evidence, we can start to Geert Wilders; and many others. Here is Finally, a fourth form of populism is more form a picture of counties with a high pro- my final point; we need to think hard about deeply leftist, in the sense of seeking to

60 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 populism and the future of american politics

unite rejection of racial, gender, religious, outcome of the election had only eighteen- legal, and class injustice. The early stage of to-twenty-five-year-olds voted: it shows an the 1890s Populist movement, for example, almost uniformly blue land mass, with 504 witnessed a racially egalitarian movement electoral votes for Clinton, 23 for Trump. as part of the rejection of the gold standard Now most members of that age group don’t and capitalist exploitation (though that stage vote, and there are problems with this anal- died pretty quickly). Bernie Sanders was try- ysis, so this may not be an accurate portray- ing to create this form of left populism. In his al of the youngest cohort of voters. And we politics, the blame for all kinds of inequality don’t know whether today’s youth will re- rests with elites, with the government, with tain their political liberalism as they age and an economic enemy not defined by race, gen- become taxpayers, or if they will become

A crucial political question is how we understand the relationship between vilification of Others, or the Other, and mistrust of people who hold illegitimate political and economic power. der, sexuality, country of origin, and so on. disillusioned, racist or xenophobic, eco- Put most simply: “My family and my com- nomically discouraged and infuriated, or munity are doing badly because of powerful any one of the many things that eighteen- elites, and so are the families and communi- year-olds mostly aren’t but sixty-year-olds ties of other Americans of different races/re- often are. Still, this fivethirtyeight map does ligions/legal statuses. We are all victims of suggest the possibility of a genuine genera- the same injustice.” tional cohort change in which, sooner or lat- In short, a crucial political question is er, people who grew up after 9/11, after the how we understand the relationship be- rise in immigration, and after the 2008 crash tween vilification of Others, or the Other, will be running our country. Perhaps if we and mistrust of people who hold illegiti- can just hang on for another twenty-five or mate political and economic power. There’s thirty years, it’s going to get better. Thank a very strong argument about necessary and you. n causal links between populism and racism, at least in the United States–but history, © 2017 by Charles Stewart III, Lawrence D. political activism, and moral reasoning all Bobo, and Jennifer L. Hochschild, respectively suggest that some populist impulses can be accidentally supremacist, or not at all. The trajectory of the links that Trump on the one To view or listen to the presentations, hand, and Sanders on the other, sought to visit https://www.amacad.org/ populism. forge in 2016 will ramify through American politics for at least the next decade. I’d like to end on a less discouraging note. Is right-wing populism likely to remain dominant? Some of you may have seen the map from fivethirtyeight.com showing the

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 61 presentations

Global Warming: Current Science, Future Policy

n November 15, 2016, the Academy’s San Diego Program Committee hosted a Stated Meeting at the Sanford Consortium in La Jolla, California. Veerabhadran Ramanathan (Distinguished Professor of Climate Sciences, OScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego) and David G. Victor (Director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation, and Professor in the School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego) discussed the state of the scientific understanding of climate change and the implications of this knowledge for the development of future policy. Gordon N. Gill (Chair of the San Diego Program Committee; Professor of Medicine and of Cellular and Molecular Medicine Emeritus, University of California, San Diego School of Medicine) moderated the discussion. The program served as the Academy’s 2046th Stated Meeting. The following is an edited version of the presentations.

Carbon dioxide is probably one of the deadliest gases as far as the environment is concerned. Once that CO2 is released, about 50 percent of it stays in the atmosphere for roughly a hundred years, and about 20 percent stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years.

how to keep global temperatures from ris- thousands of years. I’m confident that what- ing more than two degrees. Our report was ever James Watt’s first steam engine emitted released for comments at Marrakech, and it is still there. It doesn’t go away, and that’s was in support of the un Paris Agreement the problem. of 2015, which set out a global plan to avoid So from James Watt’s time to 2010, we dangerous climate change by limiting glob- have emitted two trillions tons of carbon di- Veerabhadran Ramanathan al warming to well below 2°C. The warm- oxide. Our best understanding is that each Veerabhadran Ramanathan is Distinguished ing magnitude mentioned in this document trillion ton warms the planet by roughly Professor of Climate Sciences at the Scripps In- is in reference to temperatures of the pre- three-quarters of a degree. There is a three- stitution of Oceanography at the University of industrial era (before 1800). fold uncertainty in any number I give link- Let me begin with some background ing emissions to global warming. At the California, San Diego. He was elected a Fellow about climate change by using a familiar current rate of emission, we are putting out of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences example. Most of our cars burn gas. What about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide ev- in 1995. comes out of the tailpipe is basically carbon ery year. If the current growth of emissions dioxide. Fuel is a hydrocarbon, so the car- continues unchecked, by 2035, we will have just returned from a un organized cli- bon in the fuel combines with oxygen and emitted the third trillion ton of carbon di- I mate summit (cop-22) in Marrakesh, becomes carbon dioxide. This is probably oxide, and that’s enough to warm the planet attended by many of the world’s leaders. one of the deadliest gases as far as the envi- by more than two degrees, particularly since I participated as an appointed member of ronment is concerned. Once that co2 is re- we are emitting other greenhouse gases. Be- Pope Francis’ Holy See delegation. In addi- leased, about 50 percent of it stays in the at- cause of the inertia of the oceans, it takes tion, I was cochair of an international work- mosphere for roughly a hundred years, and some time for the full effect. By 2030, I pre- ing group that came up with a roadmap on about 20 percent stays in the atmosphere for dict that the planet will warm by a degree

62 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 global warming: current science, future policy

At the current rate of emission, we are putting out about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year. If the current growth of emissions continues unchecked, by 2035, we will have emitted the third trillion ton of carbon dioxide, and that’s enough to warm the planet by more than two degrees, particularly since we are emitting other greenhouse gases. and a half. It has already warmed by one de- for the planet. But as you know, science is a meteorologist. I was working on the green- gree, and by the time you emit the third tril- judged by the predictions it makes. house effect on Venus. At the time, I was lion the planet will be on its way to warm So how does the carbon dioxide warm researching chlorofluorocarbons cfc( s), beyond two degrees. So the steep climate the planet? Since the gas stays in the atmo- which were used as a refrigerant, and my changes we are talking about are not a hun- sphere for centuries, it has covered the en- discovery somewhat shocked the commu- dred years or even fifty years from now, but tire planet like a blanket. One of the first nity. I found that one ton of cfcs has the closer to fifteen to thirty years. For a past ex- persons to document this was David Keel- same warming effect as more than 10,000 ample of the planet warmer by a degree and ing, whose recording of carbon dioxide at tons of co2. The previous year, two chem- a half, you have to go back to the Eemian Pe- the Mauna Loa Observatory first alerted ists–Mario Molina and Sherwood Row- riod of 130,000 years ago, and the warmth the world to the buildup of carbon dioxide land, both at uc Irvine–published an arti- then was enough to raise the sea level by in the atmosphere. cle that claimed that cfcs were chemically about 4 to 6 meters (approximately 20 feet). We see co2 everywhere, and we take damaging the ozone layer. Because of the ef- It likely took centuries to millennia for the measurements in the Arctic and Antarctic, fect on the ozone layer, the Montreal Proto- sea level to rise by that amount. Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. There’s no col, which was really ratified during the Rea- So what does the warming mean for Cali- place on the planet that is not polluted with gan administration, banned cfcs. Howev- fornia? Every degree rise in the soil tempera- carbon dioxide. As I said previously, it cover, the Montreal Protocol did not recognize ture–I’m using the Celsius scale–increases ers the planet like a blanket. And just like a my work on the global warming potential of evaporation of moisture by somewhere be- blanket that warms you by trapping body cfcs. As a result, cfcs were replaced by hy- tween 7 to 15 percent. The soil eventually be- heat, this is exactly how co2 works: it traps droflurocarbons hfc( s), which are a thou- comes dry if the increase in evaporation is the infrared heat emitted by the surface sand to four thousand times more potent not compensated by an increase in rainfall. and the atmosphere. But how do we know than co2. But finally, forty-one years later, And when the soil dries the trees dry and how much heat it traps? The answer basi- on October 16, 2016, the Kigali Amendment become combustible. These facts are well cally follows from the quantum mechanics to the Montreal Protocol banned hfcs be- known. At this stage, you might logically of the co2 molecule. The carbon atom is in cause of their greenhouse effect–and this ask, “How can you make a prediction fifteen the center, surrounded by two oxygen at- was the first ratified, legally enforceable trea- to thirty years in advance?” Let me explain oms, which vibrate back and forth around ty that recognized the greenhouse effect of by showing you my track record. In 1980– the carbon atom. This vibration is what non-co2 gases. I had to wait for forty-one that was thirty-six years ago–I teamed up heats the planet. Arrhenius, the famous years for my discovery of the super warming with a meteorologist, and we studied natu- Swedish Nobel laureate, made the first pre- effect of halocarbons (cfcs and hfcs) to be ral variability. We predicted that the carbon diction 110 years ago that a warmer planet recognized. dioxide greenhouse effect would show up would be more humid. The increase in hu- The discovery of the greenhouse effect of by the year 2000. As some of you may know, midity would cause the rainfall to be more halocarbons opened a Pandora’s box, and this prediction was verified in 2001, when intense with many more floods. All of this numerous other manmade non-co2 green- about two thousand scientists concluded was predicted. house pollutants were discovered. Among that they were seeing a discernible warming Until 1975, we thought carbon dioxide was them were the super pollutants (that is, in the temperature record, which was good the only manmade greenhouse gas. I was not much more potent than co2): Methane; news for climate science but not good news studying atmospheric science then. I was not Ozone, hfcs, and black carbon. Black car-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 63 presentations

bon is an aerosol (particle) and it warms the planet by trapping sunlight (not infrared ra- Many people think we can see an immediate effect diation as in the case of greenhouse gases). if we decrease CO2 emissions, but because of its These four super pollutants are called short- lived-climate pollutants (slcps) since their long lifetime in the atmosphere, it will take thirty lifetimes in the air are very short (from a or forty years. week to a decade) compared with that of co2. Many people think we can see an imme- gy with four building blocks. The first one that is already up in the air; and the current diate effect if we decrease co2 emissions, is the Paris Agreement, which David will cost of that can be as high as $100 a ton. So- but because of its long lifetime in the at- talk about shortly. The second building ciety will have a huge price to pay if we don’t mosphere, it will take thirty or forty years. block is the sister agreements, and I men- take action in the next four or five years. How will the president of the United States tioned an example previously, which is the In my work with the Pontifical Academy explain to his citizens that they have spent Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Proto- of Sciences, I have been calling for an alli- a lot of money to cut co2 emissions, and col. Other examples include two other ma- ance between science, religion, and policy. I they will not see anything for thirty or forty jor agreements to reduce emission from air- have been in the Pontifical Academy for ten years? Well, with the short-lived pollutants crafts on ships. The third one is an effort years; Pope Saint John Paul elected me. It is (slcps), you see the effect immediately. called Under2 mou (Subnational Global a small academy with eighty members, and Here California can serve as a model, a type Climate Leadership Memorandum of Un- about 30 percent are Nobel laureates in bi- of living laboratory. If California’s pathway derstanding). California Governor Jerry ology, physics, and chemistry. So you might for reducing carbon dioxide and the short- Brown spearheaded the effort to get 156 ju- ask, what business does religion have in sci- lived pollutants is followed by the rest of risdictions to sign onto the agreement, in- ence? In fact, in the case of the environ- the world, we can keep the warming under cluding ten cities from China alone. The ment, science and religion seem to want the same thing. Science calls it protecting nature; religion calls it protecting creation. So The steep climate changes we are talking about are there is that commonality, and we are trying to take advantage of that. not a hundred years or even fifty years from now, Let me conclude with a final point. I am but closer to fifteen to thirty years. working closely with all ten campuses of the uc system, and with our president, Jan- et Napolitano. Starting this spring, we will safe levels. California is going to ban the hope is that even if our nation doesn’t step be offering an undergraduate course on cli- black carbon emissions from diesel vehi- up, the Under2 mou will catch on. The en- mate solutions. Our goal is to branch out to cles. And now the United Nations–in fact, tire West Coast is part of this, and Canada other four-year colleges–we have already then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton be- too, so we are optimistic. started conversations with csu–and two- gan this–has started a coalition to cut the Basically there are two levers: carbon year colleges, and then take it nationwide. short-lived pollutants. dioxide and slcps. Even if we decrease We want to train a million climate warriors Let me come back to the report we re- co2 emissions beginning today, the co2 armed with knowledge of solutions. And leased at Marrakesh. My cochairs for this concentrations in the air will keep in- then we want to reach the K-12 level. I have report are Mario Molina (a Nobel laureate creasing until we reach zero emissions. teamed up with the dean of education at in chemistry) and Durwood Zaelke (an en- We need, therefore, to bring in anoth- ucla, Marcello Orozco, and we are plan- vironmental lawyer), with a team of thirty er lever that will provide some quick re- ning an education summit in the fall. So, I’m that included David Victor, diplomats, peo- lief from the warming. That lever is the optimistic together we can solve this prob- ple from the military in the United States slcps. However, if we delay taking action lem in time. and India, and scientists from China and all for another ten years, we will have to invoke of the eu countries. We followed a strate- a third lever to remove a trillion tons of co2

64 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 global warming: current science, future policy

This is an international issue – not just because most of the pollution that causes climate change mixes in the global atmosphere, but also because cutting emissions probably will be expensive and thus affect the competitiveness of national economies.

with which technologies move around the mate change problem. We had the Kyoto global economy, and that means that new Protocol, which the United States didn’t ideas, such as new low-emission technolo- join, but when you actually look closely at gies, are going to get adopted quickly in all whether the Kyoto Protocol had an impact corners of the world. When I travel, I like on emissions, the answer was essentially to visit power plants and refineries. I look no. The Paris Agreement, the framework at who built the plant and I talk to manag- set up almost exactly a year ago in Paris, has ers about the factors that affect the opera- a very different and new approach and one David G. Victor tion of their facilities. And it really struck that is poised to be dramatically more effec- David G. Victor is Professor in the School of me that twenty years ago or so when I start- tive than the earlier efforts. This is true for a Global Policy and Strategy at the University of ed visiting power plants in all corners of lot of reasons, but I think the central reason California, San Diego, and Director of the Lab- the globe, what you would see on an Indian is that it’s much more flexible and decen- power plant was an Indian nameplate, and tralized. It relies on countries making their oratory on International Law and Regulation. you would see on a Chinese power plant own pledges and, in the months leading to a Chinese nameplate, and the same in an Paris, 185 countries made those pledges. ’ve been asked to talk about policy around American power plant, and on and on. To- What’s really interesting is that when you I climate, and I’m going to focus on three day, when you visit the best plants or the look closely at the pledges, every country things. First is the evolution of internation- best industrial facilities almost anywhere has a different strategy, because every coun- al policy strategies on climate change. Fun- in the world, you see the best nameplates try has a different set of national priorities damentally this is an international issue– and best technologies adopted very quick- and capabilities. They’re thinking about not just because most of the pollution that ly. So globalization for the most part is go- how climate change is going to map onto causes climate change mixes in the global ing to make the problem easier to solve. But what they’re trying to do at home. The Chi- atmosphere, but also because cutting emis- one of the ways in which it’s going to make nese strategy and, now, increasingly the In- sions probably will be expensive and thus it much harder is the extent to which coun- dian strategy are very much focused on how affect the competitiveness of national econ- tries are attentive economically to the effect do they control local air pollution and a va- omies. Nations–as well as cities and many of regulation on economic competitiveness, riety of other things that are urgently im- other units–have shown that they are will- growth, and jobs. Certainly we saw some of portant but also happen to reduce emis- ing to do a lot. But they probably won’t get that in the last election and it makes them sions of the pollutants that cause warming. anywhere close to zero emissions–which is very nervous about whether other countries Here in the United States our strategy is dif- more or less what’s required to stop warm- are doing their part, so I want to talk about ferent, and the European strategy is differ- ing–unless countries have confidence that how you organize international cooperation ent yet again. Brazil’s strategy is focused on other countries with which they are com- in this area. the area where Brazil has had the highest peting economically in the global economy From the early 1990s until just a few years emissions, which is around deforestation. are also doing something. ago, the answer was that we didn’t do it very They’ve made extraordinary progress over Globalization for the most part is going to well. We had a series of international agree- the last decade or so in part because outside make this an easier problem to address be- ments that had essentially no impact on the funders, Norway and others, have helped cause it has radically accelerated the speed emissions that are actually causing the cli- them find and fund new solutions.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 65 presentations

What makes climate so difficult from a policy nevolent, all-knowing person is in charge, the real society in which we live will not point of view is that the topic is intrinsically highly make adequate investments in a time- decentralized, and it’s impossible to imagine how ly enough way to control emissions. This will therefore force us and our successor you could create a single integrated treaty system. generations to adapt to the effects of climate change that will be greater than what What’s smart about the Paris approach portant when we think about climate policy would be socially optimal. That brutal polit- is it decentralizes this process of countries to keep our expectations grounded in real- ical truth reflects that the problems of con- setting their own commitments, making ity of how quickly this process can unfold. trolling emissions and adaptation to climate pledges, and then periodically reviewing And I want to concentrate briefly on two ar- impacts have a very different political struc- those commitments and those pledges. It’s a eas where I’m most concerned. One of them ture. Controlling emissions require that very different approach than what we see in is the goals. This is a disagreement that Ram countries cooperate on a difficult problem many other areas of international environ- and I have been having since Charlie Kennel over many decades, implementing expen- mental cooperation, which are much more at Scripps and I wrote a paper in Nature more sive policies in order to make a difference. integrated. The Montreal Protocol that Ram than two years ago that said that the goal of The benefits of this action are far into the mentioned is a tightly integrated treaty sys- stopping warming at two degrees was im- future; the costs are diffused and visible to- tem that initially focused on one or two possible to achieve. When I look at this from day. By contrast, if societies wait recklessly classes of pollutants, and then, as diplomats the point of view of a political scientist who for climate impacts to be apparent then the and firms gained confidence in how to reg- studies technology and regulation, I don’t benefits of action are more visible and ac- ulate those pollutants they added still more see how you get to two degrees. It’s not that crue locally. If you build a sea wall, the jobs pollutants to that same, integrated core. I can’t imagine all the levers being pulled–I accrue locally. The concrete is bought from What makes climate so difficult from a pol- was a coauthor on the paper with the three local firms. And so, as a general rule, I think icy point of view is that the topic is intrinsi- levers that Ram described. But what I have a we’re going to see a global strategy that will cally highly decentralized, and it’s impossi- hard time seeing is how you pull the levers under-mitigate and over-adapt. ble to imagine how you could create a single fast enough and hard enough in order to re- The other area where I think we need to integrated treaty system. Instead, what dip- ally stop warming at two degrees. I think we keep the right expectations is the balance lomats have learned the hard way over the need some sobriety around how quickly we between what’s going to be done globally in last twenty-five years is that they needed to can actually stop this warming both from institutions like the Paris Process, which has decentralize these activities and give coun- a policy point of view and in terms of how an official meeting underway in Marrakesh tries more flexibility to figure out what’s go- the energy system changes, because histor- right now, and what’s going to be done in ing to work in their own contexts. ically the energy system needs about three other groups. Even as the wheels of global I’m extremely optimistic that this is go- or four decades if not longer to completely climate diplomacy grid on, there are more ing to work. I wrote a book, Global Warm- turn over the technological base. focused groups of countries working on ing Gridlock, that explains why most of the The problem, of course, is that the time specific pollutants–as seen in recent weeks things we’ve tried to implement with cli- horizons needed for change in the energy with the Kigali Agreement to the Mon- mate change haven’t worked very well, be- system are a lot longer and move more slow- treal Protocol. I spent a lot of time in Nor- cause the problem is, structurally, a very ly than the rate of change that many climate way, working with the Norwegian govern- difficult one to address. One of the core ar- scientists say will be needed. That’s the bru- ment to develop a strategy to regulate soot guments in that book is that the diplomatic tal political reality of this problem. in the Arctic region. In the Arctic, all you effort would continue to fail unless it decen- If there’s any simple prediction that a need are ten or eleven countries, maybe not tralized the process more and relied more on political scientist can make studying the even that, working hard on soot pollution to national commitments. That model is now climate change issue, it is that society as a have an enormous impact on the pollution being followed with the Paris Agreement. whole will under-mitigate emissions and that ends up in the Arctic. So what you see The second of the three things I want to will therefore be forced to over-adapt. That right now is a shift between talking glob- talk about is our expectations. It’s really im- is, compared with a society in which a be- ally and being friendly to everybody glob-

66 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 global warming: current science, future policy

ally. Most of the real progress in managing single event but a process in which they set- need to have, especially inside the universi- the climate problem, however, is occurring tled on what was agreeable and then left all ty, are about how do you design the policy? in places that are focused on specific pol- the details, like how this pledge and review What really works? Do these efforts to try lutants or in very small groups of countries process are going to work, for later. It re- and stop pipelines have any impact on emis- where the cost of organizing that group and quires countries to step up and say, “Here’s sions? The short answer is no. They’re com- implementing policies is much lower than how we’re going to do it.” The United States pletely symbolic activities. the cost of working in a group of 185 coun- was in a position to do that along with some So I think climate policy is going to take a tries. The Paris Process offers an umbrel- other countries, and I think we’re probably hit in the Trump administration. There’s no la under which many more focused efforts not going to play that role now. question about it. But we have to remember can flourish. To me, one of the most interesting things that there’s a tremendous amount of iner- The last thing I want to talk briefly about is that I suspect the Chinese will fill the vac- tia in the system. There are other countries is the unavoidable topic of Trump. The man uum. The government of China has become willing and able to step up and replace U.S. has become like a national Rorschach test for much more comfortable talking openly and leadership on this issue–even China, which your view of government. Some people see internationally about its climate policy and traditionally has not really been a leader in in him a successful businessman who is on television and who is out there getting things What diplomats have learned the hard way over done–he is going to fix the problems that they see in society and tell it like it is. Other the last twenty-five years is that they needed to people envision a horror show for all manner of public policies, protection of minori- decentralize these activities and give countries more ty rights, and so on. And that Rorschach test flexibility to figure out what’s going to work in their in some sense is playing out right now with climate. The last six days since his surprising own contexts. victory have been extraordinary. I’ve spoken with thirty or forty reporters from around about its efforts to control emissions. The ar- the sustenance of international institutions. the world–the shock here in the United chitecture of the Paris Agreement in many re- We have to remember that technological States has been palpable, but that shock is spects is one created by the United States and change continues, and to me, as someone reverberating around the world. China together when the leadership of our who studies energy and energy markets, it’s How do we make sense of what the two countries jointly announced our pledges just extraordinary how much is changing in Trump administration will do on climate to cut emissions about a year before the Paris the direction of new technologies that have policy? I think the areas of greatest harm of Agreement came into effect. With the Amer- reduced costs for controlling emissions. I the Trump administration are going to be in icans off the scene, I think you’re going to see think this is going to make the problem eas- the places where the president has the most the Chinese play a much bigger role, and this ier to solve over time. But it won’t automati- immediate leverage, which is not domestic could actually end up being a kind of water- cally make it possible to stop climate change policy. Almost all of the significant domes- shed event for how the Chinese see their en- quickly–the world is in for big changes. n tic policies that affect our emissions are be- gagement with global institutions. yond easy control of a president. Most of I want to close with a couple of observa- © 2017 by Veerabhadran Ramanathan and these national policies are written into stat- tions. Everybody has been talking about the David G. Victor, respectively ute or in finalized administrative rules that negative impacts of the Trump administra- are difficult to reverse. But the place where tion on climate policy, and I do think we the president can have a big impact–what’s need to worry about the discourse around To view or listen to the presentations, already being felt in Marrakesh–is on inter- climate change policy. When polarizing fig- visit https://www.amacad.org/ globalwarming. national policy, where stopping the flow of ures are in power the entire debate becomes international funds is going to have an im- highly polarized–are we in favor of cli- mediate effect on U.S. credibility. The Paris mate policy or opposed to climate policy– Agreement, we have to remember, is not a whereas the most serious debates that we

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 67 presentations

A Collective Moral Awakening: Ethical Choices in War and Peace

n November 16, 2016, at the Huang Engineering Center at Stanford University, Scott D. Sagan (Caroline S. G. Munro Professor of Political Science, Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, and O Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University), Joseph H. Felter (Senior Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University), and Paul H. Wise (Richard E. Behrman Professor of Child Health and Society and Professor of Pediatrics and Health Policy at the Stanford University School of Medicine) discussed “A Collective Moral Awakening: Ethical Choices in War and Peace,” which is, in part, the subject of the Winter 2017 issue of Dædalus. The program, moderated by Debra Satz (Marta Sutton Weeks Professor of Ethics in Society at Stanford University), served as the Academy’s 2047th Stated Meeting. The meeting included a welcome from Mark Tessier-Lavigne (President of Stanford University) and Jonathan F. Fanton (President of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences). The following is an edited transcript of that discussion.

The competing tendencies in our world between greater economic and political integration, on the one hand, and greater ethnic national identification, on the other, are, to my mind, symptomatic of our current difficulty in understanding the scope of our responsibility.

it favors individual effects over group ef- ity is under pressure. For example, I can’t fects. We see our own agency as less impli- make sense of my obligation to diminish cated when many people, of whom we’re global warning from the perspective of my only one, produce an outcome than when immediate and individually produced ef- we produce that outcome alone. This priv- fects on the atmosphere, since they are ileging of the near over the distant and the completely negligible. At the same time, individual over the group makes a lot of there’s no obvious alternative to our ordi- Debra Satz sense if we keep in mind that our common- nary understanding of individual responsi- Debra Satz is the Marta Sutton Weeks Profes- sense morality was developed in the con- bility. Indeed, the competing tendencies in sor of Ethics and Society at Stanford University. text of interactions between small groups of our world between greater economic and individuals. political integration, on the one hand, and But as the peoples of the world become greater ethnic national identification, on e’re living at a time when technolog- increasingly interrelated–as technologi- the other, are, to my mind, symptomatic of Wical and social changes have put tre- cal advances make communication and in- our current difficulty in understanding the mendous pressure on our ordinary ethical teraction across borders easier, as institu- scope of our responsibility. Who these days concepts. Commonsense morality tends to tions like markets link the lives of millions, is my neighbor? Technologies like Twitter favor near effects over far ones. The pres- if not billions of people around the world, and Facebook break down geographical bar- ent seems more real than the future, or as and as the effects that we have on the nat- riers; suddenly we are placed in the middle the economist G. L. S. Shackle put it: “To- ural environment stretch into the distant of events across the world as they unfold in morrow’s hunger can’t be felt today.” And future–this view of individual responsibil- real time. We’re living through profound

68 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 ethical choices in war and peace

and rapid technology-driven changes. Few said: “Technological progress without the areas of life have been untouched by these equivalent progress in human institutions upheavals and it’s no surprise that our ethi- can doom us.” cal concepts are also not untouched by them. The American Academy, over the past two War is one of the most consequential are- years, has brought together a remarkable nas in which our technological and social and diverse group of scholars and practi- circumstances have created new moral di- tioners to analyze and address the challenge lemmas. There’s a long tradition of ethical of creating progress in such institutions– thinking, dating back to the Mahabharata including theories about justice, military in India and to St. Augustine in the West, rules of engagement, and different legal that lays down the rules of just war. This and organizational mechanisms–that ad- is a rich and honorable tradition, but none dress dilemmas of technology and ethics in of the writers in this tradition envisioned war. At Stanford, at the American Academy, drone warfare or the use of autonomous ro- and at West Point, we have brought togeth- bots, or the phenomena of asymmetric war- er political scientists and physical scientists, fare or the development of nuclear weap- physicians and philosophers, lawyers, histo- ons. The concepts and principles we’ve in- rians, statesmen, soldiers, and even a pilot herited from just war theory, which is now Scott D. Sagan and a poet. And while we did not try to come our commonsense thinking about the rules Scott D. Sagan is the Caroline S. G. Munro Pro- up with one consensus position or set of rec- of war–including the principles of propor- fessor of Political Science, Mimi and Peter Haas ommendations, we helped each other un- tionality and distinction, the injunction to University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, derstand these dilemmas and improve our minimalize collateral damage, the prohibi- collective arguments. And that’s important and Senior Fellow at the Center for Internation- tion on intentionally killing civilians, and because the kind of progress in human insti- al Security and Cooperation at Stanford Uni- the moral equality of all soldiers fighting in tutions that President Obama called for will versity. Elected a Fellow of the American Acad- a conflict regardless of which side they are not come about unless soldiers, scholars, emy in 2008, he is the Chair of the Academy’s on–are all under pressure today. What, for and citizens alike are engaged in a debate. example, can the prohibition on the inten- project on New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technology, Clemenceau famously noted during World tional killing of civilians mean in the con- and War, and the guest editor of the Fall 2016 War I that “war is too important to be left to text of nuclear weapons? What difference and Winter 2017 issues of Dædalus on “Ethics, the generals.” Similarly, just war doctrine is does a uniform make to the rights of com- Technology & War” and “The Changing Rules too important to be left to the philosophers batants? The technology of war now makes of War,” respectively. and the political theorists. And I hope these possible immense damages with repercus- debates begun at the American Academy sions across time and space. As citizens, as n his historic May 2016 speech in Hiroshi- will encourage many other scholars and cit- soldiers in the field of battle, and as mem- I ma, President Barack Obama highlight- izens to discuss the institutions we need for bers of a fragile global community, we face ed the need to strengthen the institutions a more just and secure world. difficult and sometimes agonizing choices that govern, however imperfectly, the ini- We have never had a president who cared in war. Some of these choices challenge our tiation, conduct, and aftermath of war. The as much about justice and questions of eth- inherited and commonsense moral ideas. speech marked the first time a sitting Amer- ics and war as Barack Obama. Indeed, he To address these requires input from many ican president had visited Hiroshima, a city took advantage of his Nobel Peace Prize disciplines and perspectives, including but that the United States had destroyed in Au- speech to talk about just war doctrine. And not only philosophers. gust 1945 with a single atomic bomb, killing he made the case at West Point in 2014 that well over one hundred thousand men, wom- we should uphold standards that reflect our en, and children. Obama ended his speech values even in warfare–taking strikes only with a call for new institutions to address when we face continuing imminent threat the destructive power of nuclear weapons. and only when there’s near certainty of no “Hiroshima teaches this truth,” Obama civilian casualties, because, as he put it, we

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 69 presentations

must not create more enemies than we take ed to spread fear among civilian population get that we have a reasonable probability off the battlefield. Obama also gave guid- are prohibited [emphasis added].” Solely of destroying with conventional weapons. ance to the U.S. military, stating that even in intended. This document implies that if you We recognize that this change in doctrine planning nuclear weapons strikes, the Unit- attack a legitimate military target, but “in- would lead to a major new focus on convened States must always follow the fundamen- tend” “to spread fear among civilian popu- tional deterrence over nuclear deterrence tal principles of the laws of armed conflict, lation” as a side benefit, that is acceptable. and would require much consultation with including distinction, proportionality, and Moreover, there have been two new defi- our allies. We also note that reasonable peo- minimizing collateral damage. nitions in the list of legal military targets ple can disagree about how best to define what is a “reasonable probability” of destroying a target. Clemenceau famously noted during World War I In addition to the Dædalus essay, we sum- that “war is too important to be left to the generals.” marized our argument in a Washington Post op-ed, and I’ve been pleased with the debate Similarly, just war doctrine is too important to be left the argument has sparked. On the one hand, to the philosophers and the political theorists. And I the argument has created consternation among some specialists in Washington and hope these debates begun at the American Academy elsewhere who think this change in nuclear will encourage many other scholars and citizens to doctrine would weaken U.S. deterrence policy. On the other hand, there are others who discuss the institutions we need for a more just and have stated that such a doctrine that prior- itizes conventional weapons above nuclear secure world. weapons is just common sense and are sur- prised to learn that this version of the ne- In the piece that Jeffrey Lewis and I wrote in this document. The official statement of cessity principle is not already embedded in for the Fall 2016 issue of Dædalus, entitled what is a legitimate military objective now U.S. targeting practices. “The Nuclear Necessity Principle,” we note includes, and I quote, “its future intended or If there’s that much disagreement within that military organizations are better than potential military use.” The given example the Beltway, there clearly needs to be a more most organizations at following orders. of such a legitimate military target is a civil- open and transparent debate about the fu- They are also better than most organiza- ian airport because while it may not now be ture of deterrence that will place ethical con- tions at creatively interpreting the guide- used as a military facility, it could be in the cerns at the heart of our national strategy, lines that they are given to fit their biases future. The Department of Defense consid- which is where our principles surely belong. and standard operating procedures to get ers that a legitimate war target. Further, they their job done. We argue that the nuclear have changed the definition of a legitimate employment strategy of the United States target set from “war-supporting industry” has created some pushback behind the to “war-sustaining industry.” This was done scenes, evident in the interpretation of laws in part to fightisis , allowing the United and resulting practices that have changed. States to target war-sustaining facilities like For example, the new Joint Chiefs of Staff oil refineries that do not contribute directly guidelines Joint Targeting states: “Civilian to military power, but making war-sustain- populations and civilian/protected objects ing industry the new standard for a legiti- may not be intentionally targeted, although mate military objective opens up the possi- there are exceptions to the rule.” What are bility for many new targeting options. those exceptions? “Civilian objects consist In our essay, we argue that U.S. military of civilian property and activities other than organizations should follow “the principle those used to support or sustain war-fight- of nuclear necessity” and should never plan ing capability. Acts of violence solely intend- to employ a nuclear weapon against any tar-

70 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 ethical choices in war and peace

Laws around just war require us to take measures to protect civilians and exercise restraint, accepting risk to protect noncombatants. And I would argue that’s always a moral imperative in any conflict. And in asymmetric conflicts like counterinsurgency especially, exercising restraint and reducing civilian casualties can also be part of a winning strategy.

the target is a compound that’s normally would make you a hero with your platoon, occupied by an extended Afghan family. On and you wouldn’t have to write letters to the same transmission, your platoon ser- any more of the perished soldiers’ parents geant says, “And we’ve got two wounded in or loved ones and avoid the gut-wrenching action, one seriously. What are we going to guilt and responsibility that comes with this Joseph H. Felter do, Lieutenant?” and can haunt you for a lifetime. But there Joseph H. Felter is Senior Research Scholar at the They continue to take sporadic fire from may be civilians trapped inside and you Center for International Security and Coopera- the compound. And then your platoon ser- know that you may put them at risk. Two, tion and Research Fellow at the Hoover Institu- geant says, “If we tie our hands any longer, you can lead your platoon to fire and ma- we’re going to lose half the platoon, Lieu- neuver onto the building, clear the build- tion at Stanford University. His essay “Limiting tenant. What are you going to do?” All eyes ing with direct fire weapons where there’s Civilian Casualties as Part of a Winning Strate- are on you. You know there’s a good chance a much greater chance that you can avoid gy: The Case of Courageous Restraint” appears there are noncombatants in the building. engaging noncombatants. You can neutral- in the Winter 2017 issue of Dædalus. You also know that you’ve received guid- ize the threat, but you’re putting your pla- ance from your battalion commander, your toon at much greater risk, not to mention ’m going to start out with a thought ex- company commander, and even a four-star yourself, by exposing them to enemy fire as I periment, to set everyone’s frame of general back in Kabul, General McChrys- you approach and attempt to clear the com- mind. Imagine you are a twenty-two-year- tal, that says: “This is a counterinsurgen- pound. And three, just back off; leave. Let old platoon leader just a few months out of cy fight in which the relationship with the the Taliban get away, live to fight another West Point and you’re in Kandahar, a small population is important. Therefore we day, face your platoon sergeant and your sol- village in Southern Afghanistan. You’re on want you to do all you can to limit civilian diers who just lost some of their comrades, a presence patrol and your platoon starts casualties and protect the population from and deal with the platoon thinking that you taking fire, separating you into different harm. We want you to refrain from using let the enemy get away without avenging the squads. Your platoon sergeant, who’s a se- these types of munitions, like aerial deliv- deaths of your brothers-in-arms and allow- nior nco and has the respect and admira- ered munitions, if you think there may be ing these Taliban the chance to attack you tion of the entire platoon, calls you on the civilian casualties at risk.” But then your again in the future. What do you do? radio and says, “We’re taking fire. We need platoon sergeant breaks in again on the ra- We can work to methodically figure out to drop a jdam [basically a precision-guid- dio and says, “Private Jones, the wounded- what one should do in a situation like that. ed bomb] onto this building that we’re tak- in-action, he just died and we just took two But try to put yourself in that position. As ing fire from to neutralize the threat.” He’s more wounded.” Debra Satz said, the present seems a lot more expecting you to say, “Roger that, Sergeant. You’ve got about three options here. One, real than the future. And in this case, your Let’s go for it.” But you delay because you drop the bomb. It’s actually consistent with present is chaos and fear, and every visceral don’t know what is the right thing to do. the laws of land warfare: you’re under at- emotion in your body says, “Protect my sol- You’ve been in this village before. You know tack, and you need to protect yourself. That diers, protect myself, drop the bomb.”

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 71 presentations

Laws around just war require us to take only is it morally correct, but it is also a part ligence, Major General Mike Flynn, cleared measures to protect civilians and exercise of winning. And I tell you, it was a tough sell the civilian casualty information for un- restraint, accepting risk to protect noncom- in theater. classified use so we could do the study. Our batants. And I would argue that’s always a But there were a lot of examples in which study showed that a civilian casualty inci- moral imperative in any conflict. And in exercising restraint was not only the mor- dent resulted in increased attacks at the dis- asymmetric conflicts like counterinsurgen- ally correct thing to do, but also helped trict level in Afghanistan for a three-week cy especially, exercising restraint and reduc- achieve successes on the battlefield. In Jan- period if it was isaf-caused, and it resulting civilian casualties can also be part of a uary 2010, soon after I got there, in Garm- ed in a one-week increase in violence even winning strategy. sir, near Helmand, a Marine battalion was if it was Taliban-caused. We found through When General Stanley McChrystal took surrounded by angry locals because a ru- anecdotal evidence that people blamed the command of the International Security and mor had gotten out that the Marines had United States for the attack either way, since Assistance Force in Afghanistan in 2009, this defaced a Koran–an egregious offense. The if we weren’t there, the Taliban wouldn’t be is how he felt. He said, “We’ve got to protect locals surrounded the platoon and start- attacking them in the first place. We briefed the population. We’ve got to limit civilian ed throwing rocks and bricks at them. One General McChrystal on our findings and casualties because that’s the only way we’re Marine got hit right in the face. Our rules of he was relieved to hear that his gut feeling going to make progress and win this fight.” engagement authorized them to use dead- on the importance of protecting the popu- He made a concerted effort to limit civilian ly force in response, but they didn’t. They lation–what he had been talking about for casualties. He developed a revised tactical di- held back; they held their ground. Fortu- months–was shown through evidence to be rective in which he said, “We’re not denying nately, the locals eventually discovered that true. That was my epiphany. I came back to you the ability to defend or protect yourself, but we are encouraging you to use restraint, to avoid using the types of weapons systems I came back to the United States on midtour leave that are more likely to create civilian casu- and realized, boy, in some ways you can make just alties if civilians are present.” In these revi- sions of various directives and standard op- as great a difference as a scholar as you can as a erating procedures, soldiers are required to soldier, in some cases more. take more risks in the interests of not harming civilians who may be in the way. And he developed a concept called “courageous re- this was a rumor planted by the Taliban, and the United States on midtour leave and real- straint,” with the notion that soldiers should the villagers dispersed. The Marines’ coura- ized, boy, in some ways you can make just as be encouraged and in some cases rewarded geous restraint was responsible for not es- great a difference as a scholar as you can as a for exercising restraint in combat situations calating a bad situation, which could have soldier, in some cases more. when it helps protect the civilian popula- resulted in civilian casualties and increased Jake Shapiro and one of his research assis- tion. But it wasn’t popular with some mili- hostilities. But there’s more to it. Following tants, Andrew Shaver, did another study in tary practitioners who criticized the idea of the incident, this unit had the highest rate of Iraq and have produced some preliminary rewarding soldiers for not fighting. tips that led to finding and clearing impro- results, which are going to be published in I was in Afghanistan at the time and my vised explosive devices (ieds). It takes a lot the Journal of Conflict Resolution. These results mission was both to educate the deployed of trust and cooperation from the local pop- show the weekly flow of tips provided to co- forces around the theater and to get them ulation to get those tips and the practice of alition forces in Iraq from the local province to understand and buy in to the strategy. I exercising courageous restraint went a long for about a sixty-week period approximately had to communicate that we weren’t asking way in garnering that trust. from June 2007 to July 2008. They were able soldiers to tie their hands behind their back, My coauthor, Jake Shapiro, came out to to get the briefing reports declassified and but rather, if a soldier can use another op- Afghanistan to collect empirical evidence collected data that showed how week-to- tion that will safeguard the lives of civilians, on the level of civilian casualties and the re- week changes in civilians harmed by either then he or she should do so. We also had to lationship with the local population. Fortu- the coalitions or the insurgents led to week- sell this concept by reminding them that not nately, General McChrystal’s chief of intel- to-week changes in the rate of information

72 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 ethical choices in war and peace

sharing. We had direct evidence that proved nified by the recognition that Omran’s inju- that harming civilians lead to less coopera- ries were not unique or even unusual. They tion in the form of locals sharing of infor- were typical. Omran was but one of twelve mation on insurgents, which is the key to children brought in with similar injuries winning this kind of fight. to the same hospital on that same day– Exercising restraint is a moral responsi- what was, in fact, a typical day for Aleppo. bility, and can also be key to developing and My comments here are in some ways an at- maintaining the support from the local pop- tempt to make sense of the photograph, and ulation needed for operational and strategic of the other eleven children brought in that success. But it’s also hard. It’s really difficult day who were not photographed, in the con- to overcome the instincts to survive and re- text of a moral framework that has justified taliate, and protect your comrades if you and constrained the initiation and the con- can. You need educated, trained, and well- duct of war. led forces to succeed. So we need to keep As powerful as that photograph is, my ap- making these investments in the quality proach is not rooted in anecdote. It is root- of the men and women who are serving in ed in epidemiology, a story whose contours these kind of situations with the discipline are shaped not by individual histories, but by to achieve the results we want. Paul H. Wise patterns of illness and death in large civilian Thucydides once said, “The strong do Paul H Wise is the Richard E. Behrman Profes- populations. Just war principles have been what they can, the weak do what they sor of Child Health and Society and Professor around for a long time. Their roots lie in early must.” But in an asymmetric conflict, like of Pediatrics and Health Policy at the Stanford Christian theology and have evolved to incor- the ones we’ve fought in Iraq and Afghan- porate the insights and approaches of inter- University School of Medicine. His essay “The istan and expect to experience going for- national law, human rights, and philosophy. Epidemiologic Challenge to the Conduct of Just ward, the strong must also do what they However, their central focus has always been War: Confronting Indirect Civilian Casualties must. Protecting noncombatants, and ac- on the most essential human consequence of of War” appears in the Winter 2017 issue of cepting greater risk in the process, is some- war, and that is violent death–the destruc- Dædalus thing strong states must do to set conditions . tion of human life through direct exposure to for accomplishing their mission. Exercising combat. This has long been the predominant restraint is both a moral obligation and, in ealth workers are always the ultimate preoccupation of just war theorists, be they many cases, a strategic imperative. Hinheritors of a failed social order. saints, generals, or philosophers, and they ap- Sooner or later, a breakdown in the bonds proach these issues in a sequential temporal that define collective peace and ensure so- format: prewar, war, and postwar. Jus ad bel- cial justice will find tragic expression in the lum speaks to when states can initiate the use clinics, on the wards, or in the morgue. This of force. Jus in bello describes how states can reality has always given health workers the use force, the conduct of combat operations, opportunity, if not responsibility, to bear and the use of force in war settings. And more witness and provide a human narrative of recently, jus post bellum focuses on disciplining suffering, particularly in what has always the provision of the elements for a just peace been the most extreme challenge for health once the guns have fallen silent. This frame- workers: the human consequences of war. work–these principles and aspirations– Most have seen the picture of Omran have been crafted to protect civilian popula- Daqneesh, a five-year-old child who was tions, to protect Omran Daqneesh from di- pulled from a destroyed building after it was rect violent injury and death. However, war bombed by either the Syrian government or also generates death, illness, and hardship a Russian aircraft in the North Syrian town not through direct exposure to combat, but of Aleppo. The power of this image is mag- through the indirect effects secondary to the

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 73 presentations

destruction of the means of human survival: it looks like to health workers in the real continues to generate some direct deaths, food supplies, water, shelter, and health care world: newborn illnesses, young child mor- but primarily indirect suffering and death. systems. tality associated with infectious diseases Displacement is profound. The destruction We do have evidence regarding the im- like malaria, diarrheal diseases, dehydra- of normal markets, food, water, and shelter portance of these indirect effects. A study tion, cholera, and, of course, malnutrition is traumatic. was done in Darfur at the height of the fight- and starvation. These are some of the in- The largest refugee camp in the world is in ing in Western Sudan to assess the epidemi- direct effects of war. We also know some- Northern Kenya, where some 350,000 peo- ology of mortality. And, indeed, they found thing about the scale of indirect effects in ple currently reside, although the Kenyan much higher levels of mortality associated different settings. In Iraq, researchers esti- government is threatening to close it short- with the fighting in Darfur. However, only mate that civilian casualties due to indirect ly. It also is important to recognize that the 15 percent of the increased mortality in Dar- deaths were three times higher than direct average length of stay in a un refugee camp fur at the height of the fighting was due to deaths during the invasion and subsequent worldwide now is twenty years–these are violent combat exposure. Eighty-five per- civil war. In East Timor, it was five times no longer acute refugee situations. This is a cent was due to the indirect effects of the de- higher. In the Congo and South Sudan, it kind of prolonged conflict that just war the- struction of the social fabric of community was nine times higher. And in Sierra Leone, ory must, and has so far failed to, address. life, of food supplies, of water, and of what at the height of the fighting, the number Likewise, just war theory must address the remained of the health care system that had of indirect deaths was fifteen times higher indirect effects, rather than consider them been there before. than violent direct deaths. peripheral problems that pediatricians like myself have to deal with in conflict areas. War also generates death, illness, and hardship not If you list the top twenty countries in the world for young child mortality, nineteen through direct exposure to combat, but through are in conflict or are profoundly politically unstable. Nearly half of all young child the indirect effects secondary to the destruction of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa are occurring the means of human survival: food supplies, water, in countries plagued by chronic violence, political instability, and conflict. Global shelter, and health care systems. child health has become global child health in conflict settings. Another study looked at child mortality A closer look at the nature of these con- Indirect effects of war are not new. The patterns in the Kivu region of the Eastern flicts gives us some clues as to why they have plague of Athens killed Pericles and almost Congo at the height of the fighting. And, like been associated with such high indirect ef- killed Thucydides. During The Thirty Years’ Darfur, child mortality was much elevated fects, clues that raise an even more funda- War, the indirect effects were catastrophic. in this area. But, in this case, the causes asso- mental question about the utility of a tra- However, what makes the indirect effects ciated with the elevation in mortality were ditional just war framework. Prewar/war/ particularly important now, and perhaps fever and malaria, diarrhea, acute respirato- postwar is the paradigmatic framework more than ever before, is technical innova- ry infections and pneumonia, and neonatal for just war theory. However, the reality of tion. Technological advances have dramat- measles, which are the same causes of child these conflicts is that they don’t general- ically altered our ability to measure and, mortality in these populations without war. ly conform to this vision of war and its af- most importantly, to mitigate the indirect However, the absolute numbers of deaths termath. What’s prewar and postwar in the effects of war. We have new technical capac- occurring from these causes was much high- Congo, Northern Nigeria, Gaza, or even ity to assess the indirect effects using mobile er in these circumstances, and the indirect Iraq? Fighting explodes and then recedes. technology and sophisticated epidemiolog- mortality was far more profound and more Ceasefires are established and broken. Peace ic modeling techniques. We can get a pretty prevalent than direct exposure to combat accords come and go. In these settings, post- good idea of what the indirect effects are in related violent deaths. war becomes prewar–there’s no recon- any given population at a given time. But one We can talk abstractly, we can talk struction post bellum phase. What you see could only imagine what the indirect effects through the epidemiology, but this is what is a kind of churning, chronic conflict that are in Syria right now, for example, because

74 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 ethical choices in war and peace

We are trying to craft new cross-disciplinary approaches to the delivery of critical health services that recognize the political governance and security requirements of service provision in contested environments, where organized violence and coercion dominate social and community life. we have no system or infrastructure to actu- tice, because as technical capacity grows, so ally measure and report the indirect effects. too does the burden on society to provide it Counting in this context may seem beside equitably to all those in need. The death of the point, but an unnoticed death implies any child is always a tragedy, but the death an unnoticed life. There is a justice require- of any child from preventable causes is al- ment that indirect effects be measured, that ways unjust. Efficacy and justice are inex- there’s some accounting, some attribution. tricably linked. I recognize the many com- But we can also focus on preventing indirect plexities of any form of intervention. But deaths and suffering through remarkable the failure to act to reduce both direct and advances in public health and medical care. indirect deaths when the opportunity ex- In the Eastern Congo, the best estimates ists or can be created is a core dereliction. are that 70 percent of the excess mortality It reflects a level of complacency that is in- is preventable with interventions we have creasingly consequential and, from my per- now: immunizations, adequate nutrition, spective, must not be allowed to persist in bed nets, and medications. We could have silence. The essential challenge lies in rene- eliminated the vast majority of these indi- gotiating the tension that exists between the rect deaths. exercise of power and the claims of the vul- For the first time in any university pro- nerable–a tension that is playing out in the gram, we at Stanford are bringing togeth- lives of some of the poorest and most vul- er physicians and public health specialists nerable people on earth. n with political scientists and global security experts to create new integrated technical © 2017 by Debra Satz, Scott D. Sagan, Joseph and political strategies that can function in H. Felter, and Paul H. Wise, respectively areas of conflict and political instability. We are trying to craft new cross-disciplinary approaches to the delivery of critical health To view or listen to the presentation, services that recognize the political gover- visit https://www.amacad.org/ nance and security requirements of service ethicalchoices. provision in contested environments, where organized violence and coercion dominate social and community life. My argument here is based not on the modern origins of indirect effects, but rather their modern neglect. The dramatic advances in our technical capabilities matter. They matter to the negotiation of jus-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 75 on the professions

Why is There a Literature in the Latin Language? Denis Feeney

have spent the last few years trying to understand why the Romans developed a literature in their Latin language, when the balance of historical probability was against this happening.1 It is very easy to take the existence of vernac- I ular literatures for granted, but when Rome was developing into a Mediterranean power in the third century bce, the Greeks were the only people the Romans knew of who had an extensive range of widely disseminated texts, in a variety of literary genres, that were a core part of their education and sense of identity. The process by which the Romans developed their own equivalent began in earnest around the year 240 bce. In a move without any precedent, the Roman state systematically began to commission translations into Latin of Greek tragedies and comedies for performance at the state’s main religious festivals, starting with the festival of their chief god, Jupiter. Translations of other texts, such as Homer’s Odyssey, soon followed. Even though we now think of the translation of literary texts as perfectly normal, this was not at all the case in the ancient world, and so far as we know no one had ever translated a literary text from Greek into any other language before. Within a generation the authors of these first translations had branched out into independent composi- tions, such as narrative poems and dramas about the Roman past. A scant century after the first translated Greek dramatic script was staged in Rome, the Romans already had a well-developed Latin literature at their disposal, with dramas, epics, histories, and satires, together with the beginnings of a tradition of scholarship devoted to those texts. A century later still, in 40 bce, the great Cicero has just died, Virgil and Horace are beginning their careers, and schoolboys throughout Italy are reading not just Homer and Euripides but the classics of the early Latin tradition, such as Ennius or Terence.

How did this happen? It was not inevitable. In fact, I think it is thaginians in the First Punic War (264–241 bce) and the consequent a very strange phenomenon, and comparisons with other signifi- annexation of Sicily. It seems that they wanted to raise their status cant moments of cultural transfer in world history only highlight as a cultural as well as a military and political center, by emulating how odd the Romans’ choices were. A millennium later, during the some of the distinctive features of the other leading Hellenistic pow- extraordinary period of translation from Greek into Arabic under ers with whom they were now in direct competition. In pursuit of the ‘Abbasid Caliphate in Baghdad (750–1000 ad), we see the op- this objective, they turned to one of the most prestigious, glamor- posite pattern to the Roman one. Virtually all of Greek philosophy, ous, and appealing of all Greek cultural products–the theater. science, medicine, and mathematics was translated into Arabic, but Greek dramatic productions were popular all over southern and high literature was left completely untouched–as was virtually all central Italy and in Sicily as well, and the Romans themselves had of Plato, in an act of exclusion that deserves more attention (was his long before developed hybrid and improvisational forms of perfor- mode of philosophy too “literary,” were his naturalistic dialogues mance in response to Greek drama. Such shows had been staged at too culturally embedded?). The Romans, conversely, translated Jupiter’s festival for well over a hundred years. What began around only literature out of Greek at first, while technical works of med- 240 bce, however, was quite new. The Romans wanted to partic- icine, for example, were left untouched for almost two centuries. ipate more directly in the world of Greek theater, staging close The beginning of the Roman translation project, around 240 bce, equivalents of the plays that were so popular all around the world is not a well-documented period, and the Romans’ precise motiva- that they were now taking over: the old hybrid medleys could not tions are irrecoverable in detail, but we must look for a general ex- discharge this function. Nor did the Romans want to have plays planation of this remarkable phenomenon in the context of Rome’s in Greek as the focus of their national festivals, in the way that as- long-standing dialogue with Greek culture, which had acquired a piring Hellenistic powers such as Macedonia could do. Canonical new urgency and focus by the middle of the third century. In the Greek plays translated into Latin could provide the ideal solution. In generation leading up to the first staged translations, Rome had be- this way, the Roman state could foster prestigious shows that were come a major Mediterranean power following the defeat of the Car- modern, while maintaining a certain distance from a wholeheart- ed identification with Greek culture–becomingtoo Greek, mere- Denis Feeney is Professor of Classics and Giger Professor of Latin at Prince ly mimicking Greek, was a cultural strategy that never appealed to ton University. He was elected a Fellow of the American Academy in 2016. them. Translations of acknowledged classics from the respected

76 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 why is there a literature in the latin language?

canons of Greece allowed the Romans to have their cake and eat it too–they could have a national theater of their own, based firmly on an internationally acknowledged repertoire, but they could do so independently, on their own terms. The writers who provided the translations, and who in time went on to create literary works that were not adaptations of Greek origi- nals, were not born as Roman citizens, but came from a fascinating range of interstitial cultural contexts created by the Romans’ rapid conquest of Italy. They are classic cases of the middle-men and cultural brokers who have so often been the agents of cultural transfer throughout history. The man who was remembered by later tradition as the first to put on a translated play in Rome, Lucius Livi- us Andronicus, was originally a Greek, “Andronikos,” and it seems that he was brought to Rome after his native city of Tarentum, in southern Italy, was taken over by the Romans in 272 bce. One of his successors, Quintus Ennius, is more representative in claiming to have “three hearts,” since he knew how to speak Greek, Latin, and Oscan (the main language of central southern Italy). Trilingualism, not bilingualism, was the norm for these pioneers, who in addition to Greek and Latin could also speak Oscan (Naevius, Ennius, Pacu- vius), Umbrian (Plautus), or Punic (Terence). The dramatically swift Roman conquest of Italy had created new dreds, perhaps even thousands, of volumes: the Villa of the Papyri constellations of allegiances and affinities, and these poets were in Herculaneum has so far yielded remains of perhaps up to 1,000 products of the new circumstances, moving back and forth between scrolls, only a portion of the original holdings. The illustration above different linguistic cultures, and helping to mediate between Roman shows an idealized image of a reader from a colonnade in a house at and Greek culture above all. With their school training in Greek and Pompeii, painted on a wall right where the owner of the house would in the Greek canonical curriculum, together with their knowledge go to read in the sunlight by his indoor garden, having taken a scroll of the Roman state and its history and ideology, they were able to ex- from the shelves in his library.2 This painting is conventionally said ploit new opportunities for self-promotion and self-advancement, to depict the Greek comic playwright Menander, and the house is becoming an indispensable element of the ever-expanding Roman therefore known as “the house of Menander.” Whoever this person festival program. Surprisingly quickly, a new kind of linguistic and was, he is caught at the very moment when he has finished reading a cultural umbrella developed in the Latin-speaking West, provid- volume, so that he is not holding it in both hands to unscroll it, but ing a smaller mirror-image of the Hellenism of the Eastern Medi- reflecting abstractedly on what he has just been reading. If you fol- terranean. After the conquests of Alexander the Great, when Greek low the line of his vision, you see that he is not looking at the scroll became the dominant language of government and culture in the itself, but into the middle distance to the right of his book, preoccu- East, the diverse local elites–Syrians, Lycians, Jews–became adept pied with his impressions. We all know what that feels like. at joining the mainstream of Hellenism and writing in Greek for a © 2017 by Denis Feeney transnational audience. Similarly, by around 150 bce, the Roman world was fostering an environment in which writers from all kinds of backgrounds could participate in a transnational Latin-based en- endnotes terprise of literary production and education. 1. See Denis Feeney, Beyond Greek: The Beginnings of Latin Literature The diffusion and reach of the new literature in Latin are very (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2016). striking. Fragments of Virgil’s Aeneid have been found at Hadrian’s 2. I would like to thank my friend Reid Byers for his help on the libraries Wall and in the palace of Masada. Major towns throughout the Latin of Pompeii and Herculaneum. West had substantial libraries, and individuals in towns like Pompeii or Herculaneum had private collections of books, running up to hun-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 77 on the professions

Appreciating Biological Variation Ary Anthony Hoffmann

ike many biologists, I had an early fascination with nature. As a seven- or eight-year-old child, I was particularly taken with mushrooms and toadstools, collecting them in woods outside The Hague, and studiously comparing L them to pictures in my precious field guide. I remember being particularly struck by the sharp colors, symmetrical shapes, and intricate gills of the toadstools. This was my first taste of biodiversity even though the woods where my fungi grew were undoubtedly highly managed ecosystems!

At the age of ten, my family migrated to New Zealand and we All this variability forms the basis of the disciplines of evolution- lived on a vegetable farm. I became concerned about quite a differ- ary biology and genetics. It is surprisingly easy to utilize it exper- ent form of biodiversity; namely, the thrips that were eating our on- imentally, much as breeders have done across the centuries. I re- ions, nematodes that were boring through our potatoes, and weeds call that as a Ph.D. student, I was keen to generate some diversity in that were smothering our lettuce and cabbage seedlings. I was fasci- the lab and play at evolution, so I generated lines of flies that could nated by the rapid destruction caused by these animals, along with smell unusual compounds and that were attracted to different types diseases that could turn a wholesome looking pumpkin or potato of fruit. I came to appreciate the speed of evolution that is so well into a soggy mess in a matter of days. Nature provided an ongoing used by our plant and livestock breeders, and that also underlies set of challenges for my father, who tried to fight back chemically ecological adaptation, allowing populations to exploit new habi- with the help of a brass knapsack sprayer and later a boom sprayer tats. I discovered native flies around Melbourne that had evolved mounted onto an old Ferguson tractor. However, I admired the fact and adapted to take advantage of fruit orchards, new environments that weeds could grow so quickly and keep coming back no matter that had not existed a few hundred years previously. how many times we hoed the soil or sprayed them. I was particular- And yet throughout my career I kept coming across situations ly impressed by their flexible growth patterns, such as the way barn- where rapid adaptation had not occurred, where the fly species I yard grasses could grow to become almost invisible by hugging the was studying were restricted to wet patches of ferny forest, using soil, then to throw up seed heads that could disperse into the wind. native fruit and fungi, just like they had for millions of years previ- And I became aware of the insects that became rapidly immune to ously. These species with narrow ecological distributions seemed the chemicals we were using to try to control them, seemingly un- destined to become threatened species. Ongoing variation and evo- touched by the toxic mix that was hated by my father. lution seem insufficient to protect these species, and extinction re- Much of the biological variability I encountered in my childhood mains an inevitable outcome when our environments are changing stays vividly with me now and very much forms part of my ongo- so rapidly as land degradation, climate change, and deforestation ing research drive. Growing up on the farm I appreciated the end- rates accelerate. What makes these species different from others less variation in bugs and weeds that we were trying to control, as that can adapt to stressful conditions? well as the variation in crop plants that we grew, such as the bras- I have more recently started to wonder if evolutionary adaptation sicas that included cauliflower, cabbage, and Brussels sprouts, and might be enhanced even in species that are threatened or with long tomatoes that varied from staked plants with perfectly round fruit generation times. I want to know how we might reduce extinctions to bushes with huge wrinkled fruit. After leaving school, I worked by helping these evolutionary laggards adapt, so we are not left with on a large sheep, cropping, and beef farm on the Canterbury Plains a world full of adaptable weeds and invasive species. This could be of the South Island. There I encountered a different type of vari- achieved by boosting genetic variation in populations that lack it, ability in the shape of many breeds of cattle, including large Cha- such as through the introduction of new alleles into populations of rolaise and compact Hereford breeds as well as the solid Angus, all threatened species that have lost it; such alleles could come from of which were being crossed. I learned to separate my Corriedales other larger populations or even related species. I’ve been involved from Romneys and how breeding could build up lines for differ- in a recent success using this strategy to reinvigorate a population ent purposes. of mountain pygmy possum, a threatened marsupial restricted to the alpine areas of South Eastern Australia. In other cases, it may be possible to move “pre-adapted” gen- Ary Anthony Hoffmann is Chair of Ecological Genetics at the University of otypes around the landscape. This is a strategy we are trying for Melbourne, Australia. He was elected a member of the American Academy long-lived trees whose persistence is threatened by climate change, of Arts and Sciences in 2016. which is producing extended droughts and increasingly intensive

78 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 appreciating biological variation

heat waves. By introducing genetic material of the same species from several hundred kilometers away, where conditions are drier and hotter, it might be possible to ensure at least some trees survive into the future. There is an urgency here because the effects of climate change are already starting to impact all levels of biodiversity–from genes to ecosystems around the world. The same strategy might help corals to survive higher water temperatures. Novel ways in which adaptation might happen really quickly are starting to emerge. One method is to use “epigenetics,” which refers to the ability of organisms to change their patterns of gene expression for several generations as a direct response to environmental effects. In this way, when a parent is exposed to heat stress, it may lead to modifications in the expression of proteins that are used to protect molecules from denaturing under heat stress, which are then passed on to their offspring and so on. Later generations then become better at dealing with heat stress directly. Such effects have been shown to occur in some plants and fish. We still don’t know how common epigenetic effects are in organisms and whether they help them deal with stressful situations. Parents exposed to stress might also be damaged in some way. For instance, the offspring of flies exposed to thermal stress show de- tween microorganisms and climate, because the strains of microor- velopmental abnormalities. Rather than increasing adaptation, pa- ganisms that are suitable for disease suppression in different parts rental heat stress might then also decrease the fitness of the next of the world will vary with climatic conditions. In this way, we can generation. A challenge is to understand when parental exposure “pre-adapt” organisms to particular situations. produces adaptive epigenetic effects while avoiding damage at the Adaptation and evolution have formed a rich field of study for same time. me, providing opportunities to build resilience in threatened spe- Another rapid way in which organisms might adapt is through cies and to control organisms that pose threats. We have made mas- the microorganisms that live in their gut, in their cells, or on their sive progress over the last few years in understanding rapid adapta- surface (in the case of plants). It has long been known that micro- tion and we are only just beginning to appreciate how we can gen- organisms living inside the cells or tissues of animals and plants can erate and use variation in organisms from natural environments. I provide various nutritional benefits to their hosts. Recent research can only hope that it may yet prove possible to discover new ways also points to microorganisms being important in other forms of to trigger rapid evolution in novel ways that help protect the planet, environmental adaptation. For instance, microorganisms carried assist in food production, and decrease disease burden. by aphids affect their ability to counter the effects of hot condi- © 2017 by Ary Anthony Hoffmann tions, while microorganisms carried by mosquitoes and flies as well as by many other insects influence their resistance to viruses. These rapid forms of adaptation to stressful conditions might be exploited not only to generate populations that are more resistant to stressful conditions, helping environmental adaptation, but also within the context of human health. Mosquito-borne diseases –like malaria, dengue, and zika–remain an enormous burden to human health in tropical countries. Microorganisms that block the ability of mosquitoes to transmit malaria and viruses might provide a way to decrease the incidence of these diseases. My group is currently involved in programs in the tropics to take advantage of this opportunity. But we are also investigating the interactions be-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 79 on the professions

A Scientist’s Work on Vaccines Paul Offit

n 1980, I began my fellowship in pediatric infectious diseases at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. My mentor was Dr. Stanley Plotkin: the inventor of the ra27/3 strain of rubella vaccine–the one that by 2005 had eliminated the I disease from the United States. The year before I arrived in Philadelphia, Dr. Plotkin, along with Dr. Fred Clark, had started a program to study rotavi- ruses, a common cause of vomiting, diarrhea, fever, and dehydration in infants and young children. In the United States, every year about 3 million children would be infected, 250,000 would seek medical attention, 75,000 would be hospitalized, and 60 would die. In the developing world, about 2,000 children would die every day from rotavirus-induced dehydration. There was a desperate need for a vaccine.

During the next ten years, our team at Children’s Hospital de- In 1998, while we were in the midst of developing our vaccine, veloped a small animal model (mice) to study the disease, deter- Andrew Wakefield and colleagues at the Royal Free Hospital in mined which rotavirus genes caused diarrhea, and which rota- London published a paper claiming that the measles-mumps- virus genes coded for proteins that evoked protective immunity. rubella (mmr) vaccine caused autism. Wakefield reported the cas- Next, we isolated a strain of rotavirus from a calf with diarrhea that es of eight children who had developed autism within one month didn’t cause disease in children. Finally, we created a series of re- of receiving the mmr vaccine. Because Wakefield’s “study” didn’t combinant viruses between this calf strain and human rotavirus include a control group, the only thing he had proven was that strains that didn’t include the human genes that caused diarrhea the mmr vaccine didn’t prevent autism. Later, seventeen studies but did include the human genes that could evoke protective im- showed that children who had received mmr were at no greater mune responses. risk of autism than those who hadn’t received the vaccine. None- With our recombinant rotavirus strains in hand, we approached theless, Wakefield’s paper touched off an international firestorm. four vaccine makers hoping that one would be interested in deter- Thousands of parents in the United Kingdom and Ireland chose not mining whether what we thought was a rotavirus vaccine actual- to vaccinate their children with mmr, hundreds were hospitalized, ly was a rotavirus vaccine. Merck was the first to step forward. Be- and four died from measles–died from a disease that could have tween 1990 and 2006, Merck Research Laboratories performed a se- been safely and easily prevented by a vaccine. ries of studies to prove that all of the strains that were in our vaccine What I learned from this was while vaccines were hard to make, had to be there (proof-of-concept studies), that we didn’t have too they were easy to damn. much or too little vaccine virus in the final preparation (dose-rang- In 2000, Charlotte Moser and I launched the Vaccine Education ing studies), that we had the right buffering and stabilizing agents Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. The goal was to cre- (real-time stability studies), that our vaccine didn’t interfere with ate a series of educational materials to inform the press, the public, the safety or immunogenicity profiles of other vaccines that would and lawmakers about what vaccines are and how they work–to de- be given at the same time (concomitant use studies), and that mystify vaccines. During the past sixteen years we have created tear the fully liquid preparation could be easily administered to chil- sheets, videos, mobile apps, coloring books, online games, vaccine dren at two, four, and six months of age. The final so-called Phase hero trading cards (in the same format as baseball cards), booklets, 3 study was a prospective, placebo-controlled, 11-country, 4-year, and a full-length feature film–Hilleman: The Perilous Quest to Save the 71,000-person trial that cost about $350 million to perform and gen- World’s Children–that won the award for best documentary film at erated individual clinical reports that if stacked one on top of the two international film festivals. In addition, I have written several other would have exceeded the height of the Sears Tower. books about vaccines: The Cutter Incident: How America’s First Polio What I learned from all of this was how hard it was to make Vaccine Led to the Growing Vaccine Crisis (Yale University Press, 2005), a vaccine. which details a biological tragedy that occurred in 1955 when one of the companies that made Jonas Salk’s polio vaccine failed to fully Paul Offit is Professor of Pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases at inactivate the virus; Vaccinated: One Man’s Quest to Defeat the World’s the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the Maurice R. Hilleman Pro- Deadliest Diseases (Smithsonian Books, 2007), which tells the story fessor of Pediatrics at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of of Maurice Hilleman, the scientist who developed nine of the four- Pennsylvania. He was elected a Fellow of the American Academy in 2015. teen vaccines currently given to infants and young children; Autism’s

80 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 a scientist’s work on vaccines

False Prophets: Bad Science, Risky Medicine, and the Search for a Cure (Columbia University Press, 2008), which pulls back the curtain to expose some of the nefarious characters behind the vaccines-cause- autism controversy; and Deadly Choices: How the Anti-Vaccine Move- ment Threatens Us All (Basic Books, 2011), which describes the impact of antivaccine sentiment in the United States. Although performing scientific studies has in no way taught me how to deal with the media, our educational efforts at the Center and our books about vaccines have landed me on news programs such as Today, Good Morning America, CBS This Morning, NBC Nightly News, ABC World News Tonight, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, Stossel, MSNBC, Dateline NBC, the Jim Lehrer NewsHour, Fox News, National Public Radio, The Colbert Report (twice), and The Daily Show, as well as allowed me to participate in documentaries on NOVA, Frontline, and CNN. I’ve learned a lot along the way. One thing I have found, which I wouldn’t have predicted, was that I had inadvertently put myself in the crosshairs of the antivaccine movement. Consisting of politicians, filmmakers, celebrities, parent activists, and personal-injury lawyers, the antivaccine movement is an unholy alliance dedicated to scaring parents away from vaccines. I’ve been the victim of hate mail, death threats, and law- suits, and parents have been victims of bad information. It’s been an education. But I can’t quit. Too much is at stake. Not a year goes by at our hospital without a child dying from a vaccine-preventable disease: most commonly influenza, but occasionally pertussis, pneumococcus, and varicella. Invariably, these parents had chosen not to vaccinate their children. As is invariably the case, it is always the children who suffer our ignorance. © 2017 by Paul Offit

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 81 on the professions

China’s Repeated Reunifications Patricia Ebrey

hy has China, for so much of its history, been the most populous country in the world? How were the states that were formed in China able to rule larger territories and populations and maintain centralized structures W longer than governments elsewhere? Six times in China’s history states were able to defeat their rivals until they controlled both the Yellow River and the Yangzi River regions (my minimum definition of “unified”) and last eighty years or more (my minimum definition of “long-lasting”). These states were the Qin-Han (221bc e–220 ce), Sui-Tang (581– 907), Northern Song (960–1127), Yuan (Mongol, 1276–1368), Ming (1368–1644), and Qing (Manchu, 1644–1911) dynasties.

The centuries that China was under the control of these large These unifications built on each other. Or to put this another way, states and the centralized ways in which they ruled resulted in a they did not all start at the same place. Arguably, the first of these large body of words, ideas, and practices shared across the Chinese reunifications, the Sui-Tang, was not inevitable. In 500, one could subcontinent, leading some people to assume that it was China’s conceive of two or three strong countries in East Asia. After all, Ko- cultural uniformity that enabled large states to be formed. I think rea had been part of the Han, and the Sui and Tang rulers tried re- causation, in the early stages at least, was heavily in the opposite peatedly to reincorporate it. If they failed in Korea, they could have direction: Large, centralized states facilitated the spread of lan- also failed in Fujian or Zhejiang. Quite plausibly, the north and guage and cultural ideas and practices. In time, of course, the pro- south could have continued indefinitely as rival powers. However, cess became more two-way, as shared culture made reunification once the Sui-Tang reunification proved to be successful, the superi- and strongly centralized governments easier to create and main- ority of unity over division seemed self-evident to the political elite. tain. Thus, I am not persuaded by any of the single-factor explana- The century and more of division during the Southern Song when tions of China’s unity in terms of its geography, writing system, or large areas settled by Chinese were ruled by non-Chinese states did Confucian ideas. At a minimum, political practice and internation- not lead to a shrinkage of the Chinese population. To the contrary, al context need to be considered. it strengthened Chinese cultural identity. To develop a more-nuanced, multifactor explanation, I have been Some changes brought about by unifications were unique, oth- focusing on three consecutive unifications: that of the Sui-Tang, ers recurrent, and still others cumulative. Changes in state-elite re- Northern Song, and Yuan. In the first half of my book-in-progress I lations are a good example of a recurrent development. The Confu- highlight some of the similarities and differences between the pro- cian literati were not major power-holders at the beginning of any cesses involved in these three unifications. All three were achieved of these dynasties, but they were brought in more quickly in the overwhelmingly through force of arms. There are differences in Song than either the Tang or the Yuan. how long it took to attain military dominance and the level of resis- A good example of cumulative change is the movement of peo- tance aspiring dynastic founders encountered, but no dynasty was ple. Large migrations laid the groundwork for unifications of the established by treaties negotiated by statesmen or by marriage alli- north and south. These large movements of people from north to ances between rivals. Still, the groups that founded these dynasties south occurred during periods of warfare in the north, such as in the are quite different. The Sui and Tang ruling groups belonged to the fourth century, the second half of the Tang, the Jurchen invasion in aristocracy of the Northern Dynasties, which included the Xianbei the twelfth century, the Mongol campaigns in north China in the ruling families and the Han Chinese families with whom they inter- 1210s–1230s, their invasion of Sichuan in the 1230s, and their final married. The Song founder, by contrast, was a professional soldier, campaigns in the Yangzi regions in the 1260s–1270s. These migra- who on taking the throne took steps to curb the power of other mil- tions made the next unification somewhat easier because the mix- itary men who had aided him. By the time the Mongols subjugated ing of people from different regions helped strengthen shared cul- the Southern Song, they already held a huge empire extending into ture. Some ruling houses forced the movement of people as a way to Mongolia, and they had an elaborate government staffed not only impose their power and reduce any chances of resistance. This was by Mongols but also by Chinese from the north and by people from especially common among the non-Han ruling houses: the Xianbei other places in Eurasia. Northern Wei moved tens of thousands of farmers from Hebei to the capital at modern Datong; the Western Wei reportedly moved Patricia Ebrey is Williams Family Endowed Professor of History at the Uni- similar numbers from the captured city of Jiangling to territory versity of Washington. She was elected a Fellow of the American Academy they controlled in the north; and the Kitans forced farmers in He- of Arts and Sciences in 2016. bei and Shanxi into modern Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and places

82 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 china’s repeated reunifications

further north. To some extent, forced movement to the north bal- Finally let me mention the Song government’s innovations in anced the voluntary movement to the south. reaching down to the common people. They made much use of the Part II of my book-in-progress addresses the question of China’s new technology of printing to have notices widely posted in towns large and long-lasting empires from another angle: How were cen- and villages to alert commoners of changes in policy, upcoming due tral governments able to rule effectively at such distances? Did the dates, new opportunities, and fraudulent practices. The Song gov- actual techniques change? Forced migration has been mentioned ernment also earned the good will of ordinary people by conferring as a state-building practice, but there are many others. To explore titles and promotions on their gods, something that meant so much them I narrow my time frame to the Song in order to drill down to these communities that they often had a stone carved to com- to the primary source evidence. The richest material by far is for memorate the honor. the Song, and the Song is probably also the period with the most I have been concentrating on the positive side of Song statecraft creative innovations in statecraft. One good example is regulating because I am trying to explain a positive outcome: the government succession to the throne. Since longer-ruling dynasties did more to maintaining order and facilitating prosperity despite serious exter- solidify China as a large unified empire than short ones, it is worth nal threats. This is not the usual story. When historians examine considering what made it possible for dynasties to keep putting political topics they typically focus on the failures or shortcomings descendants on the throne for centuries. Song makes advances on because this is what men of the time wrote about. In comparative Tang in this regard, and there are no cases of usurpations or armed perspective, however, the successes require more explanation than struggles over succession in the Song. From the start, the Song took the failures, and the successes, I believe, can be attributed in large steps to avoid eunuch interference with succession, which was a part to Chinese skill in the art of government. n major problem in the late Tang. The Song dynasty was also suc- © 2017 by Patricia Ebrey cessful in keeping princes away from power struggles. Equally important, the Song avoided succession crises by making the senior widow the king-maker when an emperor died before designating an heir. The Song was equally inventive, even if less successful, in finding ways to cope with aggressive neighbors. Here it is particularly interesting that Song officials were willing to compare the costs of mon- etary tribute versus the cost of war. Rather than look at the matter in terms of glory or humiliation, they pragmatically calculated the costs and benefits. To assure adequate revenue for defense purposes, Song statesmen found ways to draw much of their needed funds from commercial taxes, monopolies, and state lands. The area of Song statecraft that had the largest influence on subsequent dynasties was probably the civil service system. Song officials tried to improve all aspects of the recruitment system, leaving behind a voluminous body of material on schools and teaching, testing, promoting, evaluating, and disciplining officials. The civil service examination system was the centerpiece of state-elite relations in the Song. Officials believed that they had earned their position through merit, so this was their government. Their identification with the dynasty helps explain the amazing civility of the government in Song times. Song rulers dismissed officials they no longer trusted or posted them far from the capital; they did not have them beaten or executed. Factionalism in the court repeated- ly turned nasty and there was much name-calling, but officials did not come to blows. No one in Song times ever assassinated a grand councilor or staged a coup.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 83 According to their member profiles . . . 97 Academy members have an interest in climate. For the humanities, it’s 290 Academy members.

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In Memoriam: Leo L. Beranek (1914–2016) Elected to the Academy in 1952

t is with profound sadness that the Academy notes the death of former Academy Presi- I dent Leo L. Beranek on October 10, 2016, at age 102. Dr. Beranek served as President from 1989 to 1994. He was an active and devoted member of the Academy, participating on the Council (1994–1999), the Development and Public Relations Committee (serving as it founding Chair, 1997–2003), the Investment Committee (1999–2001), the Budget Committee (1999–2000), and the Strategic Planning Steering Committee (1998–1999). As Chair of the Development Committee, he led the Academy’s first major campaign–the Third Century Fund. Among his many prizes and awards, he was the first recipient of the Academy’s Scholar-Patriot Award, and the Library at the House of the Academy in Cam- bridge is named in his and his wife Gabriella’s honor.

What a beneficent life! Leo Beranek, born in a simple Iowa farm While still a student beset by poverty, he happened one day to village of 400 souls, struggling hard during the Great Depression, see a man glumly trying to change a flat tire. Leo offered to help, rose to exemplary leadership in a startling variety of important roles. and he wrote that after some conversation, “I had a new friend. He He was a scientist, technologist, inventor, industrialist, author, wanted to know if I had considered going to a university where, as philanthropist, and leader of major institutions. Those ranged it happened, the man had been an instructor. ‘No,’ I said, that’s a from initiating Harvard’s war-time Electro-Acoustic Research Lab- rich man’s school.” The encounter ended with Leo receiving a rec- oratory, to coleading the high-technology company Bolt Beranek ommendation from this man and being admitted to the university and Newman (bbn), to serving as the head of a new kind of televi- with a scholarship. sion station, to being President of our Academy, and more. At each From then, Leo took off. To paraphrase a popular saying in a new stage, he envisioned exploring new areas of national importance, context, a good fate can prepare a person deserving it, and benefits and attracted with an easygoing charisma those he wished to work those working with him. with him. I recommend his autobiography Riding the Waves: A Life in Sound, Gerald Holton Science, and Industry (published by The mit Press in 2008). It is a Harvard University gripping account of how the fabled “American Dream” may become a fact. Throughout the book, his native generosity and “can- do” attitude come through, starting with an early section entitled “A Momentous Encounter.”

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 85 noteworthy

Select Prizes and Glenn Fredrickson (University Richard H. Holm (Harvard Uni- Marcia McNutt (National Acad- of California, Santa Barbara) re- versity) received the 2016 Robert emy of Sciences) was named the Awards to Members ceived the 2016 William H. Walk- A. Welch Award in Chemistry. He 2017 dri (Desert Research Insti- er Award for Excellence in Con- shares the prize with Stephen J. tute) Nevada Medalist. Bruce M. Alberts (University of tributions to Chemical Engineer- Lippard (Massachusetts Institute Ira Mellman (Genentech, Inc.) California, San Francisco) received ing Literature. of Technology). was awarded a Wilbur Cross the Lasker-Koshland Award for Elaine Fuchs (Rockefeller Univer- Bengt Holmström (Massachu- Medal by the Yale Graduate Special Achievement in Medical sity) was awarded the 2016 Van- setts Institute of Technology) was School of Arts and Sciences. Science. derbilt Prize in Biomedical Sci- awarded the Nobel Prize in Eco- Louis Menand (Harvard Universi- Richard Alley (Pennsylvania State ence. nomic Sciences. He shares the ty; The New Yorker) was awarded a University) received the 2016 Cli- prize with Oliver Hart (Harvard Richard Garwin (ibm Thomas 2015 National Humanities Medal. mate Communications Prize from University). J. Watson Research Center) was the American Geophysical Union. awarded the Presidential Medal Gerald Holton (Harvard Univer- Newton Minow (Sidley Austin llp) was awarded the Presiden- Federico Capasso (Harvard Uni- of Freedom. sity) was elected to the Austrian tial Medal of Freedom. versity) was awarded the 2016 Bal- Academy of Sciences. Bill Gates (Microsoft Corpora- zan Prize for Applied Photonics. tion; Bill & Melinda Gates Foun- Jeffrey Immelt (General Electric Joel Mokyr (Northwestern Uni- versity) was elected as a Corre- Robert A. Caro (New York, New dation) and Melinda Gates (Bill & Company) is the recipient of the sponding Fellow of the British York) is the recipient of the Life- Melinda Gates Foundation) were 2017 Edison Achievement Award. Academy. time Achievement Award, given awarded the Presidential Medal Henryk Iwaniec (Rutgers, The by the National Book Foundation. of Freedom. State University of New Jersey) Harry Noller (University of Cal- ifornia, Santa Cruz) was award- Robert De Niro (New York, New Frank Gehry (Frank O. Gehry was awarded the 2017 ams Joseph ed the 2017 Breakthrough Prize in York) was awarded the Presiden- & Associates) was awarded the L. Doob Prize by the American Life Sciences. He shares the prize tial Medal of Freedom. Presidential Medal of Freedom. Mathematical Society. He shares the prize with John Friedlander with Stephen Elledge (Harvard Ronald Drever (California Insti- Herbert Gleiter (Institut für (University of Toronto). Medical School), Roeland Nusse tute of Technology) was awarded Nanotechnologie, Germany) was (Stanford University School of a Special Breakthrough Prize in awarded the Medal of Friendship- Philip S. Khoury (Massachusetts Medicine), Yoshinori Ohsumi Fundamental Physics. He shares Order of Merit by the govern- Institute of Technology) received (Tokyo Institute of Technology), the prize with Kip Thorne (Cal- ment of China. He was also elect- a Doctorate of Humanities Hono- and Huda Zoghbi (Baylor College ifornia Institute of Technology) ed a Fellow of the National Acad- ris Causa from Earth University of Medicine). and Rainer Weiss (Massachusetts emy of Inventors. in Costa Rica. Roeland Nusse (Stanford Uni- Institute of Technology). Laurie H. Glimcher (Dana-Farber J. Michael Kosterlitz (Brown Uni- versity School of Medicine) was Bob Dylan (Malibu, California) Cancer Institute; Harvard Medi- versity) was awarded the Nobel awarded the 2017 Breakthrough was awarded the Nobel Prize in cal School) is the recipient of the Prize in Physics. He shares the prize Prize in Life Sciences. He shares Literature. 2016 Marion Spencer Fay Award. with F. Duncan Haldane (Prince- the prize with Stephen Elledge ton University) and David J. Thou- (Harvard Medical School), Harry Stephen Elledge (Harvard Med- Terry Gross (whyy) was awarded less (University of Washington). Noller (University of California, ical School) was awarded the a 2015 National Humanities Medal. Santa Cruz), Yoshinori Ohsumi 2017 Breakthrough Prize in Life Arend Lijphart (University of F. Duncan Haldane (Princeton (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Sciences. He shares the prize California, San Diego) was award- University) was awarded the No- and Huda Zoghbi (Baylor College with Harry Noller (University of ed a Wilbur Cross Medal by the bel Prize in Physics. He shares of Medicine). California, Santa Cruz), Roeland Yale Graduate School of Arts and the prize with J. Michael Koster- Nusse (Stanford University School Sciences. Monica Olvera de la Cruz (North- litz (Brown University) and Da- of Medicine), Yoshinori Ohsumi western University) was awarded vid J. Thouless (University of Maya Lin (Maya Lin Studio) was (Tokyo Institute of Technology), the 2017 Polymer Physics Prize Washington). awarded the Presidential Medal and Huda Zoghbi (Baylor College from the American Physical of Freedom. of Medicine). Paula Hammond (Massachusetts Society. Institute of Technology) has been Stephen J. Lippard (Massachu- Sandra Faber (University of Cali- Robert E. Page Jr. (Arizona State elected to the National Academy setts Institute of Technology) re- fornia, Santa Cruz) was awarded University) has been elected a of Medicine. ceived the 2016 Robert A. Welch the Fellows Medal of the Califor- Fellow of the California Academy Award in Chemistry. He shares nia Academy of Sciences. of Sciences. Oliver Hart (Harvard Universi- the prize with Richard H. Holm ty) was awarded the Nobel Prize Bernard L. Feringa (University of (Harvard University). Elaine Pagels (Princeton Univer- in Economic Sciences. He shares Groningen) was awarded the No- sity) was awarded a 2015 National the prize with Bengt Holmström Wynton Marsalis (Jazz at Lincoln bel Prize in Chemistry. He shares Humanities Medal. (Massachusetts Institute of Tech- Center) was awarded a 2015 Na- the prize with J. Fraser Stoddart nology). tional Humanities Medal. Thalia Papayannopoulou (Uni- (Northwestern University) and versity of Washington) received Jean-Pierre Sauvage (University James McBride (New York Uni- the Wallace H. Coulter Award for of Strasbourg). versity) was awarded a 2015 Na- Lifetime Achievement in Hema- tional Humanities Medal. tology from the American Soci- ety of Hematology.

86 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 noteworthy

Alan Perelson (Los Alamos Na- Robert A.M. Stern (Robert A.M. Rainer Weiss (Massachusetts In- Michael Gazzaniga (University tional Laboratory) was awarded Stern Architects; Yale University) stitute of Technology) was award- of California, Santa Barbara) has the 2017 Max Delbruck Prize in was awarded the 2017 Topaz Me- ed a Special Breakthrough Prize in been appointed to the Advisory Biological Physics by the Ameri- dallion for Excellence in Archi- Fundamental Physics. He shares Board of Yewno. can Physical Society. tectural Education. the prize with Ronald Drever (California Institute of Technol- Linda Greenhouse (Yale Law Joseph Polchinski (University of J. Fraser Stoddart (Northwestern ogy) and Kip Thorne (California School) has been elected Presi- California, Santa Barbara) was University) was awarded the No- Institute of Technology). dent of the American Philosoph- awarded the 2017 Breakthrough bel Prize in Chemistry. He shares ical Society. Prize in Fundamental Physics. the prize with Bernard L. Ferin- Peter Wolynes (Rice University) He shared the prize with Andrew ga (University of Groningen) and has been elected a Foreign Fellow Nancy Ip (Hong Kong Univer- Strominger (Harvard Universi- Jean-Pierre Sauvage (University of the Indian National Science sity of Science and Technology) ty) and Cumrun Vafa (Harvard of Strasbourg). Academy. has been appointed a member University). of Cure Alzheimer’s Fund’s Re- Edward Stolper (California In- search Consortium. Michael Posner (University of stitute of Technology) is the 2017 Oregon) was awarded the 2017 recipient of the Roebling Medal, New Appointments Eric W. Kaler (University of Benjamin Franklin Medal in given by the Mineralogical Soci- Minnesota) has been elected Computer and Cognitive Science. ety of America. Chair of the ncaa Division I David Agard (University of Cal- Board of Directors. Peter J. Ratcliffe (University of Andrew Strominger (Harvard ifornia, San Francisco) has been Oxford) received the Albert Lask- University) was awarded the appointed to the University Laura Kiessling (University of er Basic Medical Research Award. 2017 Breakthrough Prize in Fun- Council of Yale University. Wisconsin-Madison) has been He shares the award with Wil- damental Physics. He shares the appointed to the University Ben Barres (Stanford Universi- Council of Yale University. liam G. Kaelin, Jr. (Dana-Farber prize with Joseph Polchinski ty School of Medicine) has been Cancer Institute; Harvard Medi- (University of California, Santa appointed a member of Cure Alz- David Leebron (Rice University) cal School) and Gregg L. Semen- Barbara) and Cumrun Vafa (Har- heimer’s Fund’s Research Con- was elected Chair of the Board of za (Johns Hopkins University vard University). sortium. Directors of the Association of School of Medicine). American Universities. Mark Thiemens (University of Bonnie Bassler (Princeton Uni- Rebecca Richards-Kortum (Rice California, San Diego) was award- versity) was elected to the Board Nancy Lynch (Massachusetts In- University) was awarded a 2016 ed the Leonard Medal by the Me- of Directors of Regeneron Phar- stitute of Technology) has been ap- MacArthur Fellowship. teoritical Society. maceuticals. pointed Associate Head of the De- Kay Lehman Schlozman (Boston John Meurig Thomas (University partment of Electrical Engineering Emilio Bizzi (Massachusetts In- and Computer Science at mit. College) is the recipient of the of Cambridge) has been awarded stitute of Technology) has been American Political Science Asso- the Royal Medal for Physical Sci- named to the Scientific Adviso- Kelsey Martin (University of Cal- ciation’s Samuel J. Eldersveld Ca- ences by The Royal Society. ry Board of PathMaker Neuro ifornia, Los Angeles) has been reer Achievement Award. Kip Thorne (California Institute systems. named Dean of the David Geffen School of Medicine at ucla. Laurence Senelick (Tufts Univer- of Technology) was awarded a George Q. Daley (Harvard Med- sity) was awarded lifetime honor- Special Breakthrough Prize in ical School; Children’s Hospital, Mary Miller (Yale University) ary membership in the American Fundamental Physics. He shares Boston) has been appointed Dean has been named Senior Director Theatre and Drama Society. He the prize with Ronald Drever of Harvard Medical School. of the Institute for the Preserva- was also elected to the College of (California Institute of Technolo- tion of Cultural Heritage at Yale. Fellows of the American Theatre. gy) and Rainer Weiss (Massachu- Chi Van Dang (University of setts Institute of Technology). Pennsylvania Perelman School Geneva Overholser (New York, Thomas Siebel (C3 IoT) received of Medicine) has been appointed New York) has been appointed to the 2016 Most Admired ceo Life- Cumrun Vafa (Harvard Universi- Scientific Director of the Ludwig Northwestern University in Qa- time Achievement Award from ty) was awarded the 2017 Break- Institute for Cancer Research. tar’s Joint Advisory Board. the San Francisco Business Times. through Prize in Fundamental Physics. He shares the prize with Persis Drell (Stanford Univer- Julia M. Phillips (Sandia Nation- Leon Simon (Stanford Univer- Joseph Polchinski (University of sity) has been named Provost of al Laboratories) was appointed to sity) is the recipient of the 2017 California, Santa Barbara) and Stanford University. the National Science Board. ams Leroy P. Steele Prize for Andrew Strominger (Harvard David Rockefeller, Jr. (Rockefel- Seminal Contributions to Re- University). Mark Fishman (Harvard Univer- search. sity) has been appointed Chair- ler Financial Services, Inc.) has Diana Wall (Colorado State Uni- man of the Board of Directors of been appointed Chairman of the Henry I. Smith (Massachusetts In- versity) was elected an Honorary Semma Therapeutics. Board of Directors of Rockefeller stitute of Technology) was award- Member of the British Ecological & Co. ed the 2017 ieee Robert N. Noyce Society. Jeffrey S. Flier (Harvard Medical Medal. School) has been appointed to the Robert Rotberg (Harvard Kenne- David R. Walt (Tufts University) Board of Directors and Scientific dy School) has been appointed Bruce Springsteen (Colts Neck, has been elected to the National Advisory Board of Scholar Rock. Fulbright Distinguished Research New Jersey) was awarded the Academy of Medicine. Professor at the Institute of Inter- Presidential Medal of Freedom. W. Kent Fuchs (University of national Relations, University of Florida) was appointed to the Na- São Paulo, Brazil (2016–2017). tional Science Board.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 87 noteworthy

Gary Segura (Stanford University) Emma Donoghue (London, On- Kay Redfield Jamison (Johns Mark V. Tushnet (Harvard Law has been named Dean of the ucla tario, Canada). The Lotterys Plus Hopkins University School of School), Alan K. Chen (University Luskin School of Public Affairs. One. Arthur A. Levine Books, Medicine). Robert Lowell, Setting the of Denver Sturm College of Law), March 2017 River on Fire: A Study of Genius, Ma- and Joseph Blocher (Duke Univer- Laurence Senelick (Tufts Univer- nia, and Character. Knopf, Febru- sity School of Law). Free Speech Be- sity) was appointed to the Edito- Ha Jin (Boston University). The Boat ary 2017 yond Words: The Surprising Reach of rial Advisory Board of Early Popu- Rocker. Pantheon, October 2016 the First Amendment. New York Uni- lar Visual Culture. John Kaag (University of Massa- versity Press, February 2017 Ward Just (Vineyard Haven, chusetts, Lowell; Visiting Schol- James Skinner (University of Massachusetts). The Eastern Shore. ar, 2007–2008). American Philos- Neil deGrasse Tyson (Ameri- Wisconsin-Madison) has been Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Oc- ophy: A Love Story. Farrar, Straus can Museum of Natural Histo- named Director of the Water Re- tober 2016 and Giroux, October 2016 ry), Michael A. Strauss (Prince- search Initiative at the Institute ton University), and J. Richard for Molecular Engineering at the Amos Oz (Ben-Gurion Universi- Eric R. Kandel (Columbia Uni- ty of the Negev). Judas. Houghton Gott (Princeton University). Wel- University of Chicago. versity). Reductionism in Art and come to Our Universe: An Astrophysical Mifflin Harcourt, November 2016 Brain Science: Bridging the Two Cul- Debora Spar (Barnard College) Tour. Princeton University Press, Francine Prose (New York, New tures. Columbia University Press, October 2016 has been named President of the September 2016 Lincoln Center for the Perform- York). Mister Monkey. Harper, Oc- tober 2016 Lawrence Weschler (The New York- ing Arts. Richard Kramer (City University er). Waves Passing in the Night: Walter of New York, The Graduate Cen- Darren Walker (Ford Founda- Murch in the Land of the Astrophysicists. Nonfiction ter). Cherubino’s Leap: In Search of the Bloomsbury, January 2017 tion) has been appointed to the Enlightenment Moment. University of Board of Directors of PepsiCo. Akhil Reed Amar (Yale Law Chicago Press, November 2016 George M. Woodwell (Woods Hole Research Center). A World Maria Zuber (Massachusetts In- School). The Constitution Today: Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot (Har- stitute of Technology) has been Timeless Lessons for the Issues of Our to Live In: An Ecologist’s Vision for a vard University). Growing Each Plundered Planet. The mit Press, elected to the Board of Directors Era. Basic Books, September 2016 Other Up: When Our Children Become of Textron. February 2016 Rogers Brubaker (University of Our Teachers. University of Chica- California, Los Angeles). Trans: go Press, September 2016 Gender and Race in an Age of Unset- Wendy Lesser (The Threepenny Re- Select Publications tled Identities. Princeton University view). You Say to Brick: The Life of We invite all Fellows and Press, October 2016 Louis Kahn. Farrar, Straus and Gir- Foreign Honorary Members Poetry Benjamin Coates (Wake For- oux, March 2017 to send notices about their est University; Visiting Scholar, George J. Mitchell (dla Piper) recent and forthcoming pub John Ashbery (New York, New 2011–2012). Legalist Empire: Inter- and Alon Sachar (Gibson, Dunn lications, scienti½c ½ndings, York). Commotion of the Birds. national Law and American Foreign & Crutcher llp). A Path to Peace: exhibitions and performances, Ecco, November 2016 Relations in the Early Twentieth Cen- A Brief History of Israeli-Palestinian films and documentaries, tury. Oxford University Press, Paul Muldoon (Princeton Univer- Negotiations and a Way Forward in and honors and prizes to July 2016 sity). Selected Poems, 1968–2014. the Middle East. Simon & Schuster, [email protected]. n Farrar, Straus and Giroux, De- Judy Collins (New York, New December 2016 cember 2016 York). Cravings: How I Conquered Venkatesh Narayanamurti (Har- Food. Nan A. Talese, February vard University) and Toluwalogo 2017 Fiction Odumosu (University of Virginia). Daniel C. Dennett (Tufts Univer- Cycles of Invention and Discovery: Re- Margaret Atwood (Toronto, Can- sity). From Bacteria to Bach and Back: thinking the Endless Frontier. Harvard ada). Angel Catbird. Dark Horse The Evolution of Minds. W.W. Nor- University Press, October 2016 Books, September 2016 ton & Company, February 2017 Elaine Scarry (Harvard Universi- Margaret Atwood (Toronto, Can- Ruth Bader Ginsburg (Supreme ty). Naming Thy Name: Cross Talk in ada). Hag-Seed. Hogarth, October Court of the United States). My Shakespeare’s Sonnets. Farrar, Straus 2016 Own Words. Simon & Schuster, and Giroux, November 2016 October 2016 Paul Auster (Brooklyn, New York). Ralph Snyderman (Duke Uni- 4 3 2 1: A Novel. Henry Holt and Helen Hardacre (Harvard Uni- versity Medical Center). A Chan- Co., January 2017 versity). Shinto: A History. Oxford cellor’s Tale: Transforming Academic University Press, December 2016 Medicine. Duke University Press, J. M. Coetzee (University of Ade- November 2016 laide, Australia). The Schooldays of Charles Hirschman (University Jesus. Viking, February 2017 of Washington). From High School Bruce Springsteen (Colts Neck, to College: Gender, Immigrant Genera- New Jersey). Born to Run. Simon & Robert Coover (Brown Universi- tion, and Race-Ethnicity. Russell Sage Schuster, September 2016 ty). Huck Out West. W. W. Norton Foundation, August 2016 & Company, January 2017

88 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Winter 2017 Norton’s Woods, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma 02138 telephone 617-576-5000, facsimile 617-576-5050, email [email protected], website www.amacad.org board of directors Bulletin Winter 2017 Issued as Volume lxx, No. 2 Don M. Randel, Chair of the Board © 2017 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Jonathan F. Fanton, President Diane P. Wood, Chair of the Council; Vice Chair of the Board The Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences (issn 0002–712X) is published quarterly by the American Alan M. Dachs, Chair of the Trust; Vice Chair of the Board Academy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, Geraldine L. Richmond, Secretary MA 02138. Periodicals rate postage paid at Boston, MA, and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send ad Carl H. Pforzheimer III, Treasurer dress changes to Bulletin, American Academy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Nancy C. Andrews The views expressed in the Bulletin are those held by each Kwame Anthony Appiah contributor and are not necessarily those of the Board Louise H. Bryson of Directors and Members of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. Ira Katznelson Nannerl O. Keohane photo credits John Lithgow Richard Howard Photography page 1 Venkatesh Narayanamurti Rod Searcey Photography pages 5, 68–69, 71, 73 Natasha Trethewey Sara Monteabaro page 7 Pauline Yu Martha Stewart pages 11–13, 15, 17, 19–21, 23, 25–26, 28, 30–32, 35, 37, 39, Louis W. Cabot, Chair Emeritus 41, 43, 46, 53–54, 58, 85 cj Thomas Photography pages 62, 65 committee on studies and publications John Mark Hansen and Jerrold Meinwald, Cochairs; Bonnie Bassler, Rosina Bierbaum, Marshall Carter, Gerald L. Early, Carol Gluck, Linda Greenhouse, John G. Hildebrand, Jerome Kagan, Philip S. Khoury, Arthur Kleinman, Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot, Rose McDermott, Jonathan F. Fanton (ex officio), Don M. Randel (ex officio), Diane P. Wood (ex officio) editorial staff Phyllis S. Bendell, Director of Publications Peter Walton, Assistant Editor Heather Mawhiney, Senior Editorial Assistant Scott Raymond, Visual Designer american academy of arts & sciences Norton’s Woods 136 Irving Street Cambridge, ma 02138-1996 usa telephone 617-576-5000 facsimile 617-576-5050 email aaas @ amacad . org website www . amacad . org @americanacad american academy of arts & sciences bulletin winter 2017