ISBN 978-9934-8644-7-6 1

NEW TRENDS IN

PREPARED BY THE NATO STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE 1 ISBN 978-9934-8644-7-6 NEW TRENDS IN SOCIAL MEDIA

Project director: Beata Bialy, Sanda Svetoka Text Editor: Juris Beņķis

Production & Copy Editor:Linda Curika

The NATO StratCom Centre of Excellence, based in Latvia, is a multinational, cross-sector organization which provides comprehensive analyses, advice and practical support tothe alliance and allied nations. This report is a product of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (NATO StratCom COE). It is produced for NATO, NATO member countries, NATO partners, related private and public institutions and related individuals. It does not represent the opinions or policies of NATO. © All rights reserved by the NATO StratCom COE. Reports may not be copied, reproduced, distributed or publicly displayed without reference to the NATO StratCom COE.

Cover photo: Alex Ingram Flickr creative commons licence

Riga, December 2016

NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence Riga, Kalnciema iela 11b, Latvia LV1048 www.stratcomcoe.org Ph.: 0037167335463 [email protected] 2 OUR LATEST PUBLICATIONS 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD ………...... ……………………..4 INTRODUCTION………………………………………...... …..……6 SOCIAL MEDIA TRENDS………………………...... …………7 Social media – from participation to monetizing …...... ………...7 Globalisation and consolidation of social media ……...... …...... 10 Mobile revolution as a game changer …………………...... ……...12 Towards closed networks ……………………………………...... ………16 Social media content: less text, more image …………...... ….....19 Real time forms of communication……………………...... ………23 Future social media innovations ………………………...... ……...25 Social media as a source of news ……………………...... ……….27 From social exchange to powerful weapon …………...... ………30 Attempts to control the internet ………………………...... ………36 SURVEY ON NATO STRATCOM PERSONNEL’S UNDERSTANDING AND USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA .....… 38 CONCLUSIONS ………………………………………………...... 41 RECOMMENDATIONS…………………………………...... …...... 44 4 FOREWORD

In the current media landscape, warfare. Since its development social media has taken on a very in the early 2000s, social media prominent role. It has evolved into a has become an important tool mainstream information channel and for influencing people’s attitudes, developed into a new online platform beliefs and behaviour. Both states through which people organise their and terrorist groups are exploiting lives. Social media influences almost social media platforms effectively and every aspect of human interaction, experimenting with the engagement and the online and offline worlds are techniques and types of content that increasingly merging. best achieve their political or military goals. Social media has become one of the main channels through which In order to be better prepared for people connect and communicate, this rapidly changing information as well as getting news, however environment, the Polish National as the technology develops, social Ministry of Defence requested media consumption habits and that the NATO StratCom Centre communication models are also of Excellence explore the current changing unpredictably, both in terms trends in social media, analyse its of speed and direction. potential development in the future, including usage patterns, models of Social media has also emerged as a communication and engagement powerful weapon, used more and techniques. more frequently in information 5 This report is the outcome of that request and will seek to: Social media has also - Identify social media trends in emerged as a powerful types of platform and content. weapon, used more - Analyse usage patterns. and more frequently in - Analyse the expectations from information warfare. the further opportunities social media offers NATO and its member states. - Discuss the threats and

opportunities presented by the use of social media, as well as The report includes social media analyse current gaps in NATO’s usage statistics and a literature review, communications via social as well as lessons learned from the media. communication efforts during recent - Develop recommendations on NATO exercises. Finally, it presents the how to further improve current main outcome from the survey carried communication techniques in out by NATO StratCom COE on the order to support the strategic perception, understanding and use of communication needs of social media by NATO communication governments, armed forces and personnel. NATO in the future.

The report summarises the conclusions of the expert seminar New Trends in Social Media, organised in Riga on 18-19 April 2016 by NATO StratCom COE. The seminar attracted more than 50 communication practitioners, industry representatives and academics. 6 INTRODUCTION

Interest in social media development based on gender, age, country, and efforts to predict ‘the next big leisure and consumption habits, etc.1 thing’ have been hot topics for In a very broad perspective, these communicators, marketers, investors statistical data can delineate usage and governments since its advent. patterns and give a sense of how they Questions – such as which platforms have changed over time. However, for your audiences are using, how better more elaborated results and a real to approach and reach them, where understanding of which audiences they could potentially migrate to in are using which platforms and how, the future, and has any revolutionary more targeted research is required, new platform been developed that assessing the specific requirements of will replace the currently popular ones the audiences of interest. This report – have been on the agenda for anyone presents the most visible trends trying to promote brands. Hundreds observed in social media during the of research companies and think tanks last few years. provide regular statistical updates on global and regional usage patterns 1 Examples of global statistical trends can be found at: globalwebindex.net, http:// www.statista.com/,http://wearesocial.com/uk/ special-reports/digital-in-2016, http://www. smartinsights.com/social-media-marketing/ social-media-strategy/new-global-social-media- research/, as well as the websites of many other internet research companies focusing on specific countries. 7 SOCIAL MEDIA TRENDS

SOCIAL MEDIA – social media corporations that today can offer a variety of services such FROM PARTICIPATION TO as instant photo/video sharing, live MONETIZING video streaming, direct messaging, match-making – all interconnected on one platform. The early history of social media goes back to the 1980s and amateur- Several factors can be identified driven discussion forums such as as having driven the development USENET groups or Bulletin Board of social media and its evolution Systems (BBS) where people gathered over time. Originally, the need for to share their views, interests and connectedness was what encouraged experiences. Over time, they grew many people to start using social into sites that connected friends and media sites. At the time Web 2.0 relatives, either people you already provided technical opportunities for knew (like Classmates.com) or people the rise of social media in the early you connect to through networks of 2000s, ‘participatory culture’ was your friends (like SixDegrees.com). the buzzword phrase designating the Friendster (based on a similar idea web’s potential to provide wide-range to SixDegrees.com), created in 2002, connections, build communities and was the first social media site to reach advance democracy. This connectivity 1 million members. From there, social quickly evolved into a valuable media gradually developed into large resource, as software engineers 8 NUMBERS OF SOCIAL NETWORK USERS WORLDWIDE FROM 2010 TO 2019 (BILLIONS) 3 2.72 2.55 2.5 2.39 2.22 2.04 2 1.87

1.59 1.5 1.4 1.22 0.97 1

Number of users in billions Number of users 0.5

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* ©Statista 2016

found ways to code information into with clear market leader algorithms that helped commercial having 1.59 billion active users alone3. brands identify their particular form It is predicted that this number will of online sociality and so make continue to grow in with the them profitable in online markets. rapid increase in mobile device and Large and influential platforms such smartphone usage4. as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and LinkedIn exploded in numbers of The push for monetizing started to users and monetizing potential, along be visible even in those platforms with numerous smaller profit-based which had been previously reluctant and non-profit sites2. If we look at to share their users’ data, as for usage numbers globally, social media example WhatsApp. In August 2016, today is clearly a massive data pool for the platform announced that it would marketing purposes, but also a useful share users’ phone numbers with instrument for analysing audiences. the social network (Facebook) to

3 http://www.statista.com/ In 2016, there are over 2 billion social statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked- media users (64% of all internet users) by-number-of-users/ 4 Number of social network users 2 Jose van Dijck, The Culture of worldwide from 2010 to 2019 (billions) http:// Connectivity: A Critical History of Social Media. www.statista.com/statistics/278414/number-of- Oxford University Press, 2013, p.4 worldwide-social-network-users/ 9 offer its users “more relevant” friend suggestions and advertisements. In fact, it will enable companies to send In 2016, there are over 2 marketing messages to WhatsApp 5 billion social media users users . It is important to note that by (64% of all internet users) this move, WhatsApp made a critical change in its privacy policy – for the with clear market leader first time since the company was Facebook having 1.59 purchased by Facebook in 2014. billion active users alone.

To illustrate the marketing potential of social media, it is worth noting that in 2016 the revenue from social blocking services8. To address these media advertising will be more issues, the major social media players than 27 billion US dollars and this is help brands design non-intrusive expected to show annual growth of advertisement formats adapted to 12.57%, resulting in a market volume the customs, codes and specificities 6 of nearly 49 billion dollars by 2021 . of each social network. According to Socialbakers, a social media analytics company, the number Social platforms have also invested of brands placing paid promotion on in the development of e-commerce Facebook has increased by 120% offering their users the option to 7 within the last three years . shop directly from within the social network. The “buy now” button is a Over the same period, users have feature of all the major platforms. The learned very quickly how to evade social aspect of this online shopping intrusive ads. Ad-blockers are one can be an important driving factor: possible response. Numbers vary four out of five social media users among countries, but around 30% declare that the opinions of their of internet users currently use ad- social media friends influence their 9 5 http://www.bbc.com/news/ shopping decisions . technology-37184651 8 Presentation by Krzysztof Majkowski 6 ://www.statista.com/ (Gemius Consulting) at the NATO StratCom COE outlook/220/100/social-media-advertising/ workshop New Trends in Social Media, Riga, 19 worldwide# April 2016. 7 https://contently.com/ 9 http://www.journaldunet.com/ strategist/2016/08/17/publishers-brands- management/expert/63697/2016--quelles- creating-dozens-facebook-pages/ grandes-tendances-sur-les-medias-sociaux.shtml 10 Considering the monetization of social Instagram (in 2012) and WhatsApp media, it is also worth noting a new (in 2014) with more than 900 million phenomenon on the part of users. active users11, it has been able to offer It seems very likely that the hashtag services beyond those provided by will soon become a legally protected Facebook itself. It is very possible that, trademark. For example, in South in the future, all social networks will Africa more and more individuals and be owned by a few large companies and any successful local networks or companies are submitting trademark start–ups will gradually be acquired applications related to their hashtags. by them. “This monopolisation of It may be too early to consider this a communication could become more trend, but the question of whether commonplace in the future, to the hashtags will be copyrighted has point where the only conversations 10 already arisen . that aren’t logged and owned by companies are those you have face to GLOBALISATION AND face, away from other people”12.

CONSOLIDATION Another trend that can be identified OF SOCIAL MEDIA is that local or national networks (like different forms of national or regional The social media environment has ‘classmates’, ‘schoolmates’, ‘friends’ developed from a number of small, networks) are gradually disappearing, dispersed social media sites into the and the huge global players are consolidation of communication taking their place. The Odnoklasniki in the hands of a few global ‘big (Classmates) service, still popular players’. Thanks to the acquisition in Russia and post-Soviet Russian- of other communication platforms, speaking countries, including Ukraine, they have gradually increased their Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Georgia, is a notable exception. One of the factors influence in this market. For example, driving this trend is the growing need Facebook, despite the rapid growth to connect globally. People want to

of other smaller platforms, has been 11 Marie Dolle, Social Media: The able to keep its place as the most consolidation era, 22 May 2015. http://www. kantarmedia.com/uk/thinking-resources/blog/ popular network globally for the last social-media-the-consolidation-era several years. Furthermore, with the 12 George Archer, What’s next after Facebook? Another ‘social network’?, 20 acquisition of popular platforms like December 2014. https://www.linkedin.com/ 10 http://www.bizcommunity.com/ pulse/whats-next-after-facebook-another-social- Article/196/740/149249.html network-george-archer 11

Source: We are Social http://wearesocial.com/uk/special-reports/digital-in-2016 connect with their friends abroad, Asia) their share of social media users more and more get their news and is clearly higher than their respective current affairs information via on-the- share of population (e.g. the spot links (and not only via national or population of east Asia constitutes regional news agencies). The purpose 22% of the global population, but its of using social media is no longer share of social media users – 33%). limited to networking with one’s This clearly demonstrates that social closest friends or interest groups. The media literacy has developed more chart above shows the global presence rapidly in these parts of the world of social media and shares of its users, than elsewhere. demonstrating that there are no longer any blank spots on the world social media map13. It is interesting to note that for some regions (Europe, North America, and above all, east

13 http://www.smartinsights.com/social- media-marketing/social-media-strategy/new- global-social-media-research/ 12 MOBILE REVOLUTION AS A GAME CHANGER Dramatic expansion of Although social media has changed mobile communications the way people communicate, has had an enormous giving them wider opportunities to impact on people’s participate and connect, the dramatic behaviour. expansion of mobile communications has had an enormous impact on people’s behaviour.

regions (Africa, south and east Asia), During 2015, mobile devices became where the highest growth in mobile the main way people accessed subscribers is being seen and where connected services, including the internet use is dominated by mobile internet14. Mobile devices are now devices. In China, about half of all so powerful that they can provide sales over the internet take place via the functions that previously mobile phones15. required several devices. They can show weather forecasts, find one’s location and give directions, help It is also predicted that we can expect with planning (calendars), as well as further growth in the use of mobile connect to other electrical devices devices in the developing world. For (TV, fridge, car, etc.). This has radically example, today more than 90% of decreased the costs of the technology younger people (aged 18-25) in needed and made it more and more already have access to mobile phones accessible, including to people in low and are accessing the internet with 16 income regions, providing them with these devices . According to the opportunities to use daily services GSMA Global Mobile Economy Report (for example, banking) that would not of 2015, by 2020, around three-fifths of the global population will have a have been possible before. This trend

can particularly be seen in developing 15 http://www.economist.com/news/ business/21703428-chinas-WeChat-shows-way- social-medias-future-WeChats-world?fsrc=scn/ fb/te/pe/ed/WeChatsworld 14 Digital in 2016, special report by We 16 Presentation by Paul Smyth (MC are Social, http://wearesocial.com/uk/special- Saatchi) at the NATO StratCom COE New Trends reports/digital-in-2016 in Social Media workshop, Riga, 18 April 2016. 13

Source: We are Social, http://wearesocial.com/uk/special-reports/digital-in-2016 mobile subscription, with close to one popular social media platforms have billion new subscribers added over the been following the development of intervening period17. The chart on the smartphone capabilities very closely, next page shows the growth in mobile and developing services native to subscriptions by world region. these devices. For example, photo- and video-sharing applications such as At the beginning of 2016, more and Instagram exist almost than 2.3 billion people were using entirely on mobile. The same applies social media, and of this number, 1.9 to platforms such as Foursquare, billion were accessing social media whose users use their smartphones via their mobile phone18. It is no to find entertainment options in surprise that, in recent years, the most locations around the globe, and various matchmaking services (like Tinder)19. 17 http://www.gsmamobileeconomy.com/ GSMA_Global_Mobile_Economy_Report_2015. pdf 18 Digital in 2016, special report by We 19 The History of Social Networking, are Social, http://wearesocial.com/uk/special- 14 May 2016. http://www.digitaltrends.com/ reports/digital-in-2016 features/the-history-of-social-networking/ 14 UNIQUE SUBSCRIBERS BY REGION (MILLIONS) 4598 4470 4336 4191 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 4020 3838 3636 NORTH AMERICA 3463 MIDDLE EAST AND 3210 NORTH AFRICA 3013 2798 LATIN AMERICA 2569 EUROPE 2346 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

ASIA PACIFIC

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 7.6 % 4.0 % CAGR 2008-2014 CAGR 2014 - 2020

Source: GSMA Intelligence, on www.gsmamobileeconomy.com/GSMA_Global_Mobile_Economy_Report_2015.pdf

The growth in mobile usage could And last, but not least, it is interesting also be a facilitator that will increase to note that “mobile” doesn’t actually the use of ad-blocking services in mean mobile. According to UK the future (currently, the share of ad research in the first quarter of 2014, blocking services is comparatively only 10% of users reported using their low). For example, the release of mobile device only (1%) or mainly iOS 9 in the autumn of 2015 may (9%) away from home, whereas 66% considerably increase this number, declared using them both at and as it allows users to easily install ad outside their home21. blocking from the App Store20. 20 The cost of ad blocking PageFair and Adobe, 2015 Ad Blocking Report, https:// downloads.pagefair.com/wp-content/ 21 Presentation by Paul Smyth (MC uploads/2016/05/2015_report-the_cost_of_ad_ Saatchi) at the NATO StratCom COE New Trends blocking.pdf in Social Media workshop, Riga, 18 April 2016. 15 USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON DESKTOP VS MOBILE IN 2015

Source: Presentation by Paul Smyth (MC Saatchi) at the NATO StratCom COE workshop New Trends in Social Media in Riga, on 18 April 2016.

GLOBAL MONTHLY ACTIVE AD BLOCKING SOFTWARE USERS (DESKTOP) 181M

121M

54M 39M 30M 21M

July 2009 July 2010 July 2011 July 2012 July 2013 July 2014 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015

Source: The cost of ad blocking, PageFair and Adobe 2015 Ad Blocking Report 16 TOWARDS CLOSED NETWORKS

MONHLY ACTIVE USERS ON SELECT SOCIAL NETWORKS AND MESSENGERS

Source: We are Social, http://wearesocial.com/uk/special-reports/digital-in-2016

The increased popularity of direct mobile According to WeAreSocial, this change messaging platforms shows that the use is already having an effect on other of social media seems to be trending platforms and can be seen in the towards a greater number of private increased number of ‘private’ accounts conversations, as offered by platforms on Instagram and people sharing fewer such as WhatsApp, LINE, KakaoTalk, ‘personal’ stories on public channels Facebook Messenger (the last reported like Facebook or Twitter, instead using one billion active users in June 2016, more messenger platforms23. and a stable growth of 100 million users per quarter22). As can be seen from the To sum up, while maintaining the social chart above, the five most popular social motivation to use social media, users media platforms are dominated by direct are becoming more selective about . whom they share their content with. 23 Digital in 2016, special report by We 22 http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/ are Social, http://wearesocial.com/uk/special- facebook-messenger-billion-users/ reports/digital-in-2016 17

Source: We are Social, http://wearesocial.com/uk/special-reports/digital-in-2016

Marketing companies have already be like a personal advisor to users picked up on this trend, and are that will help them find out the right looking for the most effective ways information, shop, find directions, to personalize communication with book accommodation, flights and audiences and approach them journeys, and many others. directly. In this respect, the utilization Chatbots have already been of chatbots24 has grown dramatically acknowledged as the ‘next big since their launch in this environment thing’ and the new revolution in in 2016. The idea of chatbots is to help digital media, which will completely people with their daily tasks more change the way companies approach than any app can do currently. It could their customers. Messaging apps 24 Chatbot – a computer program like Facebook Messenger, WeChat, designed to simulate an intelligent conversation with one or more human users via auditory or Skype, Kik, Telegram and LINE textual methods. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ have their own chatbot application Chatbot 18

programming interfaces (API), so it “WHERE DO YOU SEE THE CONSUMER APPLICATIONS is possible to send/receive messages OF AI TAKING OFF IN 5 YEARS?“ via a program25. Facebook has already opened its Messenger app for people to build bots26. Some experts even talk about a ‘bot revolution’ and a 31% VIRTUAL AGENTS/CHATBOTS 20% SMART OBJECTS/ENVIRONMENTS bot-based web 3.0. In the coming 2–5 11% PHYSICAL EMBODIMENT years, the majority of our daily tasks 11% MANY/UNDECIDED 6% NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING 27 could be chatbot-assisted . 6% PERSONALIZATION OF UX RESPONSE TYPE 6% PROCESS AUTOMATION 3% NONE According to the results of a poll released in June 2016 by 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 TechEmergence, a marketing research NUMBER OF RESPONSES, n=35 firm into artificial intelligence and machine learning, the next five years Source: http://techemergence.com/ will definitely belong to chatbots (see artificial-intelligence-industry-an- overview-by-segment/ next chart)28.

The recent development of social communication, marketing campaigns, media platforms for internal corporate and internal marketing purposes. This communication, such as Slack and development, although clearly visible, Facebook at Work, is also worthy of is not going as smoothly as might be note. More and more companies are expected. According to a survey by the Harvard Business Review using social media for their internal , only 12% of 2 100 companies professed to using 25 Jan Rezab, Why Social Media Chat Bots Are the Future of Communication, 9 June 2016 internal social media networks in an https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-social- efficient way29. media-chat-bots-future-communication-jan- rezab 26 Facebook releases Bot Engine to create much Extremists or terrorists are a particular smarter bots, 12 April, 2016, https://techcrunch. com/2016/04/12/facebook-releases-bot-engine- group of social media users, often to-create-much-smarter-bots/ 27 Jan Rezab, Why Social Media Chat Bots shifting from public, open platforms Are the Future of Communication, 9 June 2016 to closed ones. This phenomenon is https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-social- media-chat-bots-future-communication-jan- explored further in Chapter 9: From rezab social exchange to powerful weapon. 28 http://venturebeat.com/2016/06/22/ smart-assistants-and-chatbots-will-be-top- 29 http://www.journaldunet.com/ consumer-applications-for-ai-over-next-5-years- management/expert/63697/2016--quelles-grandes- poll-says/ tendances-sur-les-medias-sociaux.shtml 19 SOCIAL MEDIA CONTENT: LESS TEXT, MORE IMAGE

DAILY NUMBER OF PHOTOS SHARED ON SELECT PLATFORMS, GLOBAL, 2005-2015 @KPCB 3500 3000

2500 Snapchat 2000 Facebook Messenger (2015 only) 1500 Instagram WhatApp (2013 onward only) Facebook 1000 Facebook owned properties

# of photos shared per day (MM) 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

As Evan Spiegel, the founder of translates as pictograph) or very Snapchat, has said, “Photos are no short videos (as on Vine). As can be longer just a means of capturing seen in the chart above, the numbers a moment, they are a means of of images shared via different communicating”30. That is probably social media platforms have grown one of the reasons why social dramatically, starting in 2013. conversations, both in private messaging apps and in public Over the same period, the platforms, are moving from text Report, issued in 2015 by Emogi messages (which are also becoming Research, states that 92% of the shorter) to simple and expressive online population uses emoji, and forms of communication such as 70% of internet users find emoji pictures, memes, emoji (created useful for effectively expressing their in the late 1990s by NTT DoCoMo, emotions31. Emoji are also being the Japanese communications firm; used more and more in marketing. the name is a contraction of the According to a survey conducted by words e and moji, which roughly the Appboy company in June 2016, the

30 http://www.bizcommunity.com/ 31 http://www.signal.co/resources/emoji- Article/196/669/149626a.html marketing-trends/ 20 TYPE OF POSTS ON POLISH FUNPAGES

Source: blog.sotrender.com

number of active campaigns featuring Twitter and YouTube) in the period emoji has increased by 557% in the 2012-2015, the researchers observed last 12 months, and by 114% in the a strong trend in internet posts: a year to date32. clear reduction in the number of words in favour of different forms of And forecasts are not suggesting any image. In 2012, posts including only slowing down. According to some text constituted nearly 30% of all predictions (e.g., CISCO), by 2019, posts. Three years later, their share 80% of global internet traffic will be was only 13%34. dominated by video33. Another conclusion of this study was Considering the growing domination the increasing popularity of memes35 of images, further evidence of this and their growing ability to engage trend comes from the study by internet users. One can also observe Polish research company SoTrender. a strong professionalization of the Analysing the most popular social 34 http://socialpress.pl/2016/03/ media platforms in Poland (Facebook, jak-zmienily-sie-media-spolecznosciowe-na- przestrzeni-5-lat/ 32 http://www.digitaltrends.com/web/ 35 According to Webopedia (http://www. brands-use-emojis/#ixzz4Eq1EW4i4 webopedia.com/TERM/I/internet_meme.html): 33 http://www.socialmediatoday. An Internet meme is a concept or idea that com/social-business/social-media-trends- spreads "virally" from one person to another you-need-know-2016-infographi; http:// via the Internet. An Internet meme could be www.digitalinformationworld.com/2015/12/ anything from an image to an email or video file; infographic-social-media-marketing-trends-2016- however, the most common meme is an image of insights-predictions.html a person or animal with a funny or witty caption. 21 NUMBER OF USERS ENGAGED IN DISCUSSIONS ABOUT A POST

Source: blog.sotrender.com meme market – in Poland, it has to the authors of the study, “if political almost been cornered by the three initiatives were brands, in the fourth biggest players, Kwejk, Demotywatory quarter of 2015 they would have and Bezużyteczna. The chart above been paying an average of 500 000 shows how these websites engage zlotys [ca. 114 000 euros] to achieve internet users, comparing the biggest the same reach36. Polish internet media platforms. Images are becoming more and One area very often utilising memes is more important even on social politics. Political memes have a strong media platforms traditionally tendency to go viral and quickly 36 http://socialpress.pl/2016/03/ engage users in discussion. According jak-zmienily-sie-media-spolecznosciowe-na- przestrzeni-5-lat/ 22 PERCENTAGE OF PRODUCTS USED IN DAESH COMMUNICATION STRATEGY

Source: NATO StratCom COE report The DAESH Strategic Narrative, June 2016

considered as being reserved for text And last, but not least, the power of communication, e.g., Twitter. The images has also been recognized by growing number of used in terrorists whose internet and social posts have inspired the platform to media output is clearly dominated introduce a functionality that allows by video. The chart above, from the advertisers to target their ads in line NATO StratCom COE report The DAESH with the emojis displayed by users37. Strategic Narrative (June 2016), shows the share of different types The important role of images in of media used by terrorists, with the internet content has long been domination of video content clearly recognised by marketers who have visible. found them crucial for engaging their companies with their target It is still important to emphasize that audiences. And they are now also the secret to success in social media applying this rule to their campaigns is not simply entering a conversation, on social media38. but entering people’s narratives. Just

37 http://socialpress.pl/2016/06/twitter- providing information is not nearly mozliwe-bedzie-targetowanie-reklam-w-oparciu- enough. It is relatively easy to receive o-emotikony/ 38 http://www.socialmediatoday.com/ ‘likes’, but it is much more difficult to marketing/visual-marketing-tools-you-need- shine-social-media-infographic create attachment and engagement. 23 Going from conversation to narrative means replacing interest with identification. If the audience identifies with the story you tell, engagement is It is most likely that much more likely39. And according to the utilisation of live experts, it is easier to achieve this goal videos to engage using images – of the most engaging audiences will continue posts on Facebook, photos are clearly to increase. number one (93%)40.

If the post includes a relevant image, the user spends more time more popular than saving data and on it and the chance that he/she using it afterwards. The growing will engage increases considerably. popularity of Snapchat, especially Furthermore, an item of information among young people, provides a is easier to remember if accompanied significant example of this trend with an image (65% of information (Snapchat with its 150 million users with images is remembered three has overtaken Twitter, which has days later, while if it consists of pure less than 140 million daily users)42. text – only 10%)41. At the same time, it is important to note that Snapchat is no longer REAL TIME FORMS OF just for teenagers. It is also gaining popularity among older demographic COMMUNICATION segments, those aged between 25 and 34, and even those aged 35 and older. Another visible trend is the move According to comScore Mobile Metrix, towards hic et nunc (here and now) three years ago Snapchat’s app was content. Catching the moment and only used by 5% of smartphone users providing real-time content and between 25 and 34 years old, and live video streaming is becoming 2% of age 35+. Today, its penetration among these two age groups has 39 http://www.fastcocreate.com/3039565/ for-success-in-social-media-conversation-is-not- reached 38% and 14% respectively. enough-you-need-narrative 40 http://www.socialmediaexaminer.com/ 42 Snapchat passes Twitter in daily usage. visual-storytelling-on-facebook/ Bloomberg, 2 June 2016, http://www.bloomberg. 41 http://www.lifelearn.com/2015/05/12/ com/news/articles/2016-06-02/snapchat-passes- why-infographics-work/ twitter-in-daily-usage 24 SNAPCHAT SMARTPHONE APP PENETRATION BY AGE

80 % Age 18-24 70 % 69% 60 % 50 % Age 25-34

40 % 38% % reach 30 % 24% 20 % Age 35+ 10 % 14% 5%

0 % 2% Apr 2013 Apr 2014 Apr 2015 Apr 2016 Source:https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Blog/Snapchat-Breaking-into-the- Mainstream-as-it-Posts-New-Highs-Across-Age-Segments

This may be the reason why Snapchat options, and the aim is to attract has decided to test a new functionality different audience segments. called Memories, which will allow users to download their pictures, 2016 can also be seen as the year store them in the Memories tab, of live streaming. Most of the large and share them with friends. The social media platforms introduced ephemeral character of the app live streaming services. The success might be becoming a thing of the of live-streaming platform Periscope, past43. as well as other live-streaming platforms, has also encouraged On the other hand, in August others to put more effort into live 2016, Snapchat’s major competitor videos (such as Facebook Live). Instagram introduced a new function, Tumblr announced itself as the Stories, enabling users to post pictures live-streaming hub for other live- for just 24 hours, which seems to streaming videos44, Google is be a faithful copy of Snapchat’s flag functionality. It looks like both platforms are testing different 44 Kyle Wiggers, Tumblr launches a live 43 http://socialpress.pl/2016/07/snapchat- video competitor for Periscope and Facebook sie-zmienia-koniec-z-ulotnoscia-snapow-dzieki- Live, 21 June 2016, http://www.digitaltrends. opcji-wspomnienia/ com/social-media/tumblr-live-video-streaming/ 25 FUTURE SOCIAL MEDIA INNOVATIONS

Another visible When considering the future of social trend is the move networking, some experts mention the potential increase of virtual and towards hic et augmented reality (respectively: VR nunc content. and AR47) in social media. As they emphasize, this trend will be driven by the accessibility of VR and AR devices. developing its live-streaming app For example, in March 2014, YouTube Connect. After Periscope’s Facebook acquired Oculus VR, the first anniversary, Twitter is also leading company in the production 48 introducing new features for live of virtual reality headsets . At the F8 broadcasting, such as the ability to Conference in April 2016, Facebook broadcast from GoPro cameras and presented a demo of “social virtual watch any broadcast live from a reality” that would connect people in tweet45. virtual worlds by using avatars. The idea is that eventually, “users would It is most likely that the utilisation be able to play cards with friends of live videos to engage audiences from college, visit parents in another will continue to increase. According to a January 2016 research report by eMarketer, nearly 80% of US retail executives acknowledged 47 Augmented reality (AR) is a live direct or indirect view of a physical, real-world that producing live-streaming environment whose elements are augmented video events helps them create (or supplemented) by computer-generated sensory input such as sound, video, graphics or more authentic interaction with GPS data. It is related to a more general concept audiences46. called mediated reality, in which a view of reality is modified (possibly even diminished rather than augmented) by a computer. As a result, the 45 Can Periscope Become The technology functions by enhancing one’s current Pillar of Twitter's Growth? Forbes, 29 perception of reality. In contrast, virtual reality March 2016, http://www.forbes.com/ replaces the real world with a simulated one. sites/greatspeculations/2016/03/29/can- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_reality periscope-become-the-pillar-of-twitters- 48 The History of Social Networking, growth/#13bb92f47eba 14 May 2016. http://www.digitaltrends.com/ 46 ibid. features/the-history-of-social-networking/ 26 state or enjoy a concert with their siblings, all while sitting snugly on 49 their couch” . “Social virtual The capabilities of social networking reality” connects in virtual reality have already been people in virtual proven by the VTime app, developed worlds by using by Starship, which lets users meet up with friends. At the Wearable avatars. Technology Show in London in March 2016, Starship’s Chief Marketing Officer Julian Price talked about how Currently the price of devices providing VR had the potential to turn social networks into sociable networks. virtual reality (such as Google According to him, the key will be CardBoard or Oculus Rift headsets – the transition from phone, tablet devices which, strapped to the user’s or computer-based interactions, head, offer 360 degree vision and which are largely asynchronous, into sound) and augmented reality (such as real-time, VR interactions, where Google Glass) is quite high (between participants are perfectly ‘in synch’50. 400 and 800 euros as of June 2016)51, and therefore not that accessible to Augmented reality differs from a larger public. However, as soon as virtual reality in that it applies prices fall, the widespread adoption of digital interaction to the real world augmented reality, including for social rather than creating an audio-visual networking, could become a greater experience from scratch. Some forms likelihood52. of augmented reality already exist in apps like Yelp and Google Ingress. The rapidly growing popularity of augmented-reality games further 49 Kurt Wagner, Facebook Shows Us confirms this trend. For example, What It Means to Be 'Social' in Virtual Reality, in July 2016, just a few weeks after Recode, 13 April 2016. http://www.recode. net/2016/4/13/11586098/watch-facebook- Nintendo introduced their new game social-virtual-reality-demo 50 Bernard Marr, Facebook, Virtual 51 http://www.pocket-lint.com/ Reality (VR) and the future of Social Networks, news/132945-best-vr-headsets-to-buy-in-2016- 17 March 2016. http://www.forbes.com/ whatever-your-budget sites/bernardmarr/2016/03/17/facebook- 52 The History of Social Networking, virtual-reality-vr-and-the-future-of-social- 14 May 2016. http://www.digitaltrends.com/ networks/#5f821bff3a74 features/the-history-of-social-networking/ 27 Pokemon Go, it became the most SOCIAL MEDIA AS popular application in the US in terms of daily users and time spent on the A SOURCE OF NEWS app, overcoming such big players as Twitter and Facebook53. On the other Social media is not only a tool for hand, as some experts emphasize, entertainment and engaging with it seems too early to announce other people with common interests augmented reality as a new platform. and views. It is more and more becoming a platform on which to The success of Pokemon Go might be look for information, for the latest not be due to the technology used. updates on local, regional and The technology may have simply international events. This does not enhanced the popularity of Pokemons necessarily mean that social media themselves54. has completely taken over the role of traditional media, however news It is worth noting that VR has already generated by a social media user can been experimented with by NATO. achieve the same impact as that from One example is the training exercise mainstream media. organized by the Euro Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination According to the Global Web Index Centre and Romania in July 2016. report of 2015 about the reasons During the exercise, 16 allied and people use social media, the top partner countries’ personnel used reasons are related to passive forms VR techniques to respond to realistic of networking. People are coming to crisis-situation scenarios55. view social networks as sources of content rather than platforms which require an active contribution. 55% of people use social media to stay in touch with what their friends are 53 Pokemon Go tops Twitter’s daily doing, 41% use them to stay up-to- users, sees more engagement than Facebook, 13 June 2016, Techcrunch, https://techcrunch. date with news and current events, com/2016/07/13/pokemon-go-tops-twitters- daily-users-sees-more-engagement-than- and 41% to fill spare time. facebook/ 54 http://www.inma.org/blogs/mobile- tablets/post.cfm/pokemon-go-s-success-is-not-a- sign-publishers-need-ar-offerings 55 https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=dZ3S4OpKlFs&app=desktop 28 At the same time, only 27% of internet The second conclusion is that users say that they use social media some platforms are perceived to share details about their daily life. as having more in common with By some margin, this motivation is traditional media channels, and the less important to networkers than is winner in this category is Twitter sharing of opinions or photos/videos. considered to be “current” and Clearly then, many internet users “informative”57. have become more comfortable using social media to publish content Another recent study by the Pew rather than broadcast personal Research Centre confirms this details56. trend. It concludes that in 2016, the majority or 62% of US adults Academic research carried out are getting their news from social in 2016 by SWOCC (a research media, compared to 49% in 2012. organization linked to the department Most Reddit, Facebook and Twitter of communication studies at the users would visit those platforms in University of Amsterdam) shows that order to get news. Facebook as the the way people experience social largest social networking site (67% media has changed considerably. The of its users are from the US), would research explored users’ experience be able to reach around 44% of the with eight social media platforms: US population, followed by YouTube Facebook, YouTube, LinkedIn, Twitter, and Twitter58. Google+, Instagram, Pinterest and Snapchat, using a model – Media Given this usage trend, news Experience – featuring 12 dimensions organizations and social media (e. g., stimulation, identification, platforms are themselves developing pastime, etc.). The first important capabilities to increase the ease conclusion of the research is that not all of accessing news on their sites. platforms traditionally counted among Even Snapchat, a direct messaging social media are actually perceived as platform not designed to be a news sociable (e. g. YouTube and Pinterest). 57 http://www.inma.org/blogs/research/ post.cfm/research-compares-8-social-media- platforms-with-news-media-experiences-twitter- wins 56 Social Networking Motivations, Global 58 News Use Across Social Media Web Index Insight Report, Q1, 2015. http://www. Platforms 2016, Pew Research Center, 28 May globalwebindex.net/blog/top-10-reasons-for- 2016., http://www.journalism.org/2016/05/26/ using-social-media news-use-across-social-media-platforms-2016/ 29 TOP20 INTERNET PUBLISHERS (WEBSITES AND PORTAL OWNERS) WITH THE BIGGEST NUMBER OF USERS.

Source: twitter.com/PressRedakcja?lang=pl 30 source (only 2% of US adults would visit this site for news according to a study by the Pew Research Center), is trying to adjust its services to Not all platforms enable it to provide news services traditionally counted in an attractive form, such as live among social media are videos, to its audiences59. Because actually perceived as of the popularity of this platform sociable. among young people, news outlets are also trying to present news on the platform, both as live stories and in Discover, where nearly 20 outlets — from The Wall Street Journal and What is interesting to note is that CNN to Tastemade and People — among the top 20 biggest internet publish unique content exclusive to media, two social media platforms Snapchat. Snapchat is set to launch a – Facebook and YouTube – are both redesign of its Discover section to try ranked very highly, among the top 5. and boost the number of users who use it60. FROM SOCIAL EXCHANGE TO Social media stopped being perceived POWERFUL WEAPON as just an entertainment or social exchange tool long ago. Today, it is Because of the above mentioned considered an equal player in the trends, and especially the change information market. The chart on in usage numbers and patterns, page 29 shows a relatively recent social media can be perceived as an study published by Press, the Polish important tool of influence that can monthly covering the media market. be used to shape public attitudes and 59 Snapchat wants to slip a little news behaviours. Both states and non-state into teens’ social smartphone time, Joseph groups are increasingly using social Lichterman, 25 September 2015. http://www. niemanlab.org/2015/09/snapchat-wants-to-slip- media to achieve their political or a-little-news-into-teens-social-smartphone-time/ 60 Snapchat reportedly has more daily military objectives. users than Twitter. What does that mean for news? Joseph Lichterman, 2 June, 2016. http:// As part of the ongoing conflicts in www.niemanlab.org/2016/06/Snapchat- the Middle East and Ukraine, we are reportedly-has-more-daily-users-than-twitter- what-does-that-mean-for-news/ 31 witnessing how states and terrorist Creating attractive content (images, groups are using social media to reach video games, music videos, etc.). out to their audiences, to mobilise Analysis show that 15% of Daesh content support, deceive the adversary or in 2014/2015 appropriates modern even coordinate their actions. subcultures. This gives opportunities to attract Western audiences by The case studies of Russia’s and transforming terrorism into a popular Daesh’s use of social media for their Western cultural product. information activities, that were analysed earlier by NATO StratCom Using new methods to distribute COE, demonstrated that those traditional (old–school) content. This actors have skilfully adapted to technological development creates the new information environment a number of opportunities to spread content quickly and cost effectively, and are effectively using the tools and reach larger audiences. However, and technologies developed for the most important method is the commercial and marketing needs ability to find the right medium and in order to affect the attitudes and right device, used by the intended behaviours of their target audiences61. audience. This is why terrorist groups By following the activities of the actors use different sharable platforms to in these conflicts, it is possible to distribute their content, sometimes, grasp how they are exploiting the new even very traditional ones. For example, capabilities and techniques provided sharing religious texts by using Google by the market for their information Docs, or creating information kiosks activities. in Afghanistan at locations with no The continuing trends used for this internet access, where the content purpose can be characterized as (audio podcasts) is shared to devices follows62: in MP3 format, or using cheap mobile cards and mobile phones for the

61 For more information on how different distribution of information (information actors in conflicts are using social media for is shared as ringtones). their information activities please see the NATO StratCom COE study Social media as a tool of hybrid warfare, May 2016. http://www. stratcomcoe.org/social-media-tool-hybrid- warfare 62 The trends were identified by experts during the NATO StratCom COE workshop New Trends in Social Media, Riga, 18-19 April 2016. 32 UNDER THE RADAR Daesh issues regular tech tutorials intended to keep follower’s communications out of reach of government surveillance. This guide, circulated in January 2016, ranks the encryption of chat apps.

‘SAFEST‘ ‘SAFE‘ ‘MODERATELY SAFE‘ ‘UNSAFE‘ SilentCircle Telegram CoverMe Viber WeChat GroupMe

Redphone Wickr BBM WhatsApp Nimbuzz MessageMe

OSTel iMessage LINE Hike Imo.im ChatSecure Surespot FaceTime Tango Chat ON TalkRay Signal Hangouts ooVoo Kik IM+ (formerly Textsecure) Facebook Kakao Talk Voxer Messenger Source: The Wall Street Journal (SITE Intelligence Group)

Coordinated use of multiple channels mobilisation of support, or coordination – public and closed. The coordinated of activities) is carried out in the latter63. use of different information channels from public ones (such as Twitter, blogs, Terrorist groups are very well aware websites), to more closed networks (like of the abilities of security institutions direct messaging apps – WhatsApp, to track their communication efforts Messenger, online games, etc.) which on public social networks. This is why analysts cannot access even by trying 63 Computer specialists separate the to purchase data, has been seen in the so-called surface web (whose contents can be communication efforts of both Daesh indexed by standard search engines), the deep web (whose contents cannot be indexed by and the conflicting parties in Ukraine. standard search engines, they include web mail, At one extreme is another layer of online banking, but also paid services with a paywall such as video on demand, and many communication (like Wickr or Silent more) and the dark web (content that exists on darknets, overlay networks which use the public Circle), where communication happens internet but which require specific software, within ultra-closed systems, which even configurations or authorization to access. The dark web forms a small part of the deep web, the the best analysis tools cannot fully part of the Web not indexed by search engines, access. In this respect, some analysts although sometimes the term "deep web" is confusingly used to refer specifically to the dark note a distinction between the so-called web. Darknets which constitute the dark web include small, friend-to-friend peer-to-peer surface web and dark web, claiming networks, as well as large, popular networks that a huge part of communication like , , and , operated by public organizations and individuals. (especially in respect to recruitment, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_web, https:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_web 33 tracking by security institutions64. Another reason for the success of the group has been the flexibility to According to different overcome limitations imposed by studies, at least 8% of social media platforms and move accounts on Twitter and to other platforms that have fewer 5-11% of Facebook restrictions. For example, Daesh has accounts are bots. been quite effective in using Twitter’s vulnerabilities to avoid their accounts being shut down65. Furthermore, as soon as they have faced restrictions by social media platforms in the US combinations of both public and (as most of the biggest social media closed social networks are used for companies are located in the US), their different purposes. Public networks content is adjusted and published in that have widespread reach are the social networks of other countries. mainly used for spreading propaganda materials while closed social networks may be more effective for further Creation of mobile apps to convey recruitment and the mobilization of messages directly to users. The support or coordination of activities. mobile app Dawn of Glad Tidings, that Sometimes, the communication was distributed to Daesh supporters process moving from very open to in 2014 and enabled them to use their very closed platforms can happen Twitter handles to automatically tweet in 5 minutes, while it can take the Daesh-related content, was the first same number of hours for security attempt by the group to use a mobile institutions to track it. app for the automatic distribution of their information. Although it was The list developed by the SITE closed down by Twitter soon after, it Intelligence Group describes social turned out to be extremely successful media platforms as ranging from and was able to mobilise 40 000 people safest to unsafe (see graph on page 64 How Islamic State Teaches Tech Savvy 32) was later also acknowledged by to Evade Detection, The Wall Street Journal, 16 November 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/ Daesh ‘tech’ experts in their efforts islamic-state-teaches-tech-savvy-1447720824 to educate their supporters on how 65 For more information see: Joseph Shaheen, Network of Terror: How DAESH Uses to communicate safely and overcome Adaptive Social Networks to Spread its Message, NATO StratCom COE, 2015. 34 to sign up for the app. Consequently, as are bots69 and 5-11% of Facebook ISIS advanced to new territories in Iraq, accounts are bots70. In 2014, half of all they were able to dominate Twitter the accounts created on Twitter were trends with their version of the story66. suspended71. In the first half of 2016, Currently, a new Android app is in place Twitter suspended more than 350 000 enabling Daesh radio Al-Bayana to also accounts based on its regulations on be broadcast outside the boundaries of the promotion of terrorism72. While their operating territory. In May 2016, some bots are innocuous and are a new app was developed in order created with the aim of providing more to teach the alphabet to the children efficient customer service (as described with a large number of references to above, the use of bots, and especially weapons and the jihad67. chatbots, is a growing trend in customer service), others are malicious bots Extensive use of social bots68 – designed specifically to harm. These from simple bots to sophisticated bots “mislead, exploit, and manipulate information strategies. The amount social media discourse with rumors, of computer generated content we spam, malware, misinformation, currently see in social media has slander, or even just noise”73. They already been present for a number of can manipulate discussions (for years. According to different studies, example, after the murder of Russian at least 8% of accounts on Twitter 69 Twitter Has Stopped Updating Its Public Tally Of Bots, William Alden, BuzzFeed, 10 November 2015. https://www.buzzfeed.com/ williamalden/twitter-has-stopped-updating-its- public-tally-of-bots?utm_term=.qy111VP6D#. pbYRR3mJZ 70 Facebook estimates that between 5.5% 66 How ISIS Games Twitter. J.M.Berger. The and 11.2% of accounts are fake, Emil Protalinski, Atlantic, 16 June 2014. http://www.theatlantic. The Next Web, http://thenextweb.com/ com/international/archive/2014/06/isis-iraq- facebook/2014/02/03/facebook-estimates-5-5- twitter-social-media-strategy/372856/ 11-2-accounts-fake/ 67 ISIS has released new Android app 71 Only 11% of New Twitter Users in aimed at children. Pamela Engel, Business Insider. 2012 Are Still Tweeting, Yoree Koh, The Wall 12 May 2016. http://www.businessinsider.com/ Street Journal, 21 March 2014, http://blogs.wsj. isis-android-app-kids-2016-5 com/digits/2014/03/21/new-report-spotlights- 68 A social bot is a computer algorithm twitters-retention-problem/ that automatically produces content and 72 https://www.theguardian.com/ interacts with humans on social media, trying technology/2016/aug/18/twitter-suspends- to emulate and possibly alter their behavior. accounts-terrorism-links-isis?CMP=twt_gu Definition by Emilio Ferrara, Onur Varol, 73 Emilio Ferrara, Onur Varol, Clayton Clayton Davis, Filippo Menczer, Alessandro Davis, Filippo Menczer, Alessandro Flammini, Flammini, Communications of the ACM, Vol. Communications of the ACM, Vol. 59 No. 59 No. 7, pp 96-104, http://cacm.acm.org/ 7, Pages 96-104, http://cacm.acm.org/ magazines/2016/7/204021-the-rise-of-social- magazines/2016/7/204021-the-rise-of-social- bots/fulltext bots/fulltext 35 politician Boris Nemtsov, bots were Smoke screening – mention something offering different explanations of about the intended topic but not his death, among the most popular necessarily relevant information. For – Nemtsov’s involvement in a love example, mention something about triangle); fake connection numbers Daesh, but not necessarily about – anybody can buy connections in beheadings. order to look more popular than they actually are – this has been especially Thread–jacking – change the topic in important for some politicians during a discussion thread in an open forum. election campaigns; fake ratings and For example, using the #ISIL hashtag, reviews in order to promote products but the tweet has a link to a shopping or services. However, bots have also website. been extensively used during conflicts in order to influence people’s attitudes Social media platforms have gradually and behaviour. For example, according learnt how to identify and take down to ISIS’s Twitter Census, around 20% of simple bots. However, in reaction to their supporters’ accounts were created these efforts, bots have become more by bots or apps74. The ways bots can be sophisticated – more social and human, used by different actors in conflicts are appearing as credible followers, so not as follows: that easily recognizable.

Misdirection – tweet unrelated news The social media companies are not that is happening somewhere else, ignoring these attempts. There are using a hashtag related to the conflict some examples of their efficient or crisis. cooperation with states to fight terrorism (one of them is the successful Hashtag latching (or hashtag hijacking) Operation Hashtag in Brazil before the – add popular or trending hashtags to Olympic Games). At the beginning of the content in order to reach broader or 2016, the CEOs of Twitter, Facebook, in some cases rather specific audiences. Microsoft and Google met with White For example, Daesh has been using this House officials to discuss the measures method to spread their propaganda to be taken to stop extremists using materials or even threaten Western social media to their advantage75. audiences following the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 and at Brussels Airport in 2016. 74 J.M.Berger, Jonathan Morgan, ISIS 75 http://uk.businessinsider.com/ Twitter Census: Defining and Describing the facebook-twitter-brazil-olympics-terror- Population of ISIS Supporters on Twitter, The 2016-7?utm_content=buffer864f4&utm_ Brookings Center for Middle East Policy, March medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_ 2015, p.24 campaign=buffer 36 ATTEMPTS TO CONTROL issued more than 150 gag orders on subjects ranging from government THE INTERNET corruption to natural disasters76.

Some states, in particular those with Restrictive rules to have more control strong authoritarian tendencies, over the virtual environment have also have been trying to take control of been seen in other regions, once more the internet and particularly social confirming the increasing role of this media. In history, examples of medium for achieving political aims. exposing control over the information An internet rights’ monitoring exercise space are numerous (China, Cuba conducted by the Media Foundation and others). for West Africa from October- December 2015 shows that in the The advent of social media and its last three months of 2015, Ghana and ability to increase transparency Nigeria both passed and introduced and bring to light governments’ bills that have the potential to curtail wrongdoings has been a driving free expression online77. factor for some governments to impose strict control measures over In 2014, Russia passed a draconian law the internet, following the Arab imposing restrictions on social media Spring revolutions in the Middle users. Since then, bloggers with more East. For example, , one of the than 3 000 daily readers have been most famous examples in restricting obliged to register with the mass media social media, has radically increased regulator, Roskomnadzor, and conform censorship in the virtual environment to the regulations that govern the since April 2015 by amending country’s larger media outlets. More its Internet Law to authorize the recently, in June 2016, the Russian government to ban internet content Duma adopted so-called anti-terrorist relating to “national security and legislation, strengthening control over public order”. Turkey has blocked citizens’ internet activities. Telecom access to Twitter, Facebook, YouTube 76 Turkey Blocks News Sites, Twitter, and other social media sites during Facebook after Deadly Attack. 28 June 2016. Vocativ. http://www.vocativ.com/334890/turkey- terrorist attacks, public protests and blocks-news-sites-twitter-facebook-after-deadly- other crisis situations. In the last five attack/ 77 http://www.mfwa.org/attempts-to- years, the Turkish government has control-internet-use-in-west-africa-must-be- resisted-mfwa/ 37 operators, blog platforms and social Twitter and Google. media have been obliged to store all Also in summer 2016, the Defence communications and conversations for Ministry of Thailand approved a plan six months and make them available to establish an Army Cyber Centre, to the authorities, including the one of whose tasks is “to keep track police and Federal Security Service of information on media and social (FSB), on request. Social networks media and to sort the data out have been subject to the same legal systematically”80. provisions as media outlets with respect to the crimes of inciting To ensure even more control over and condoning terrorism, which social media, some states, in addition carry the prospect of seven-year jail to blocking access to discussion forums terms78. Other attempts to control the and sites, have taken a proactive internet relate to the replacement of stance and been trying to establish the management of VKontakte, the state-owned social media platforms largest Russian social media platform, that would allow better control and and requests to social media sites to monitoring of people’s conversations. remove content that differs from the For example, reacting to the radical official position79. growth in internet users (around 40% per year between 2010 and 2014), the The growing use of social media government of Uzbekistan has created platforms by terrorists has also caused more than 38 state-owned social media a strong reaction in Israel, which sites. Despite these attempts, the sites has started to blame social media as have not gained much popularity and being “partners in crime”. On 20 July only eight of the state-owned sites are 2016, the Israeli Knesset passed a still operating and Uzbek social media new preliminary law that would oblige users continue to prefer international social media to remove posts that social media platforms like Facebook promote terror. If they do not comply, or the Odnoklassniki (Classmates) the managers of social networks Russian social network81. will be subject to fines. The new law specifically names Facebook, YouTube, 78 https://rsf.org/en/news/draconian-new- 80 http://www.prachatai.com/english/ law-tightens-control-over-communication-russia node/6498 79 Social Media as a Tool of Hybrid 81 Uzbekistan launches its 38th own- Warfare, NATO Strategic Communications brand social network, Inga Sikorskaya, IWPR, Centre of Excellence, May 2016, p.24, http:// The Guardian, 17 June 2016, https://www. www.stratcomcoe.org/social-media-tool-hybrid- theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/17/uzbekistan- warfare launches-state-social-networks-facebook 38 SURVEY ON NATO STRATCOM PERSONNEL’S UNDERSTANDING AND USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA

In order to investigate the states’ (ministries of defence and understanding and perception national armed forces) personnel of what social media is and how involved in communication processes, it is currently used by the NATO representing all the traditional NATO communication community, the COE Strategic Communications disciplines, carried out a standardized online namely Public Diplomacy (PD,) Public survey, in cooperation with Prof. Affairs (PA), Military Public Affairs Natascha Zowislo-Grünewald and Dr. (MPA), Information Operations (Info Franz Beitzinger, researchers from the Ops) and Psychological Operations Bundeswehr Univeresity in Munich. (PSYOPS).

The research was conducted in the The survey’s mailing list was based on form of a questionnaire (66 questions). a number of sources. The main source The COE sent mails inviting people was the list of attendees at the NATO from NATO StratCom community to Information and Communicators take part. Each mail contained a link to Conference 2016, received from the online questionnaire. In order to Supreme Headquarters Allied avoid any duplication of responses and Powers Europe (SHAPE). This list was increase the accuracy of the survey, complemented by the StratCom COE each link contained a unique code. mailing list (StratCom community of interest), as well as by email The objective was to obtain responses addresses obtained through an open- from the NATO and NATO member source investigation (i.e., the Linkedin 39

website). In total, 424 mails were sent. More than 60% of respondents Of this number, a small part (about 30 worked in the broadly understood addresses) proved to be inaccurate or ‘NATO structure’ (nearly 30% working invalid. To increase the response rate, directly for NATO Headquarters), and two mails were sent 10 days apart. more than 30% in the national armed forces of member states (see diagram In consequence, 153 respondents above). took part in the survey (gross response rate: 38%). As 15 responses More than 66% were military were not valid (the respondents did personnel, and nearly 34% civilian. In not complete the questionnaire), the terms of nationality, the respondents actual number of valid responses represented 20 member states, the was 138 (net response rate: 33%). most represented being the US, UK,

40 Germany and Poland. A significant The general conclusion from the proportion of the respondents (about survey is that the NATO StratCom one third) have never had a formal community is well aware of the education in communications. importance of social media in communication activities. However, The survey results have been divided better integration of this channel in into six parts addressing different the whole communication strategy is questions: necessary, as well as is professional training in social media assessment 1. General perception of social and communication. media 2. Social media in NATO The full report from the survey is communication available for internal use of NATO 3. Social media in NATO and in and NATO member states by request. home country communication (comparison) 4. Professional use of social media 5. Private use of social media 6. Monitoring and analysis of social media. 41 CONCLUSIONS

1. Social media is one of the most very much like traditional media. dynamic and fast-changing Analysing the trade press, it seems information environments. likely that the future development Innovations continue to arrive, one of social media lies with artificial after the other. New applications, intelligence and augmented reality functionalities, technical solutions techniques83.1. are an everyday reality. For this 2. An important driver of change reason, one needs to be very in social media is its commercial careful about drawing conclusions aspect. In considering social on what might already be a networks, one cannot forget that trend, and what might just be an the platforms on which these ephemeral phenomenon/fashion. networks operate, are above all One illustration of this difficulty commercial enterprises. Their is the number of publications objectives are commercial. appearing every day covering Everything they do, all the new social media topics, describing all apps or functionalities they the innovations happening in the introduce, are intended to earn sector. As some studies prove, more money. It is important to the perception of social media remember this if you want to utilise is changing in parallel with social them for a particular purpose. media platforms themselves – The platform you use can make some platforms are no longer considerable modifications, based perceived as sociable, others 182 http://www.theverge.com/a/mark- tend to be considered and used zuckerberg-future-of-facebook 42 on new audience analysis carried Different states and non–state out by the company running the groups increasingly consider this platform. The new Memories communication channel to be a functionality on Snapchat is a tool for distributing their narrative good example. Building a social and mobilising support. media communication strategy, 5. As has been seen during recent one should take this risk of shifting conflicts, different actors have audiences into account, and try to been able to adapt quickly to be flexible. the new trends in social media 3. The dynamic development of marketing and the capabilities mobile devices has been shaping provided by technological people’s behaviour. It has made development, and even adjust social media accessible in parts them for military needs. Flexibility of the world which, only recently, and adaptation to new trends in had been blank spaces on the map the digital communication market, of social media users. Obviously, including the use of social media the way people access social for internal communication, is also media – on mobile or on desktop, the key to success for governments is a combination of many factors, or NATO and its member states. e. g., age, education, objectives. 6. It is an obvious statement that 4. People use social media for having a social media strategy many different reasons. The also means having a social media social aspect, although still risk strategy. However, with the dominant, appears to vary growing use of social media for between different population information warfare purposes, sectors (e.g., age groups), and is this simple rule calls for much being gradually complemented greater attention. It seems quite by other motivations. One of reasonable for your organisation them increasingly is using social to introduce social media use media for getting news. Given this standards and principles which fact, as well as the widespread can be very useful, if, for example, use of mobile devices to access you have to face troll attacks. social media, they have become 7. Regardless of the communication one of the most important channel one chooses, the tools for influencing opinion. narrative should still be at the very 43 heart of it. The most important development of technology, there thing is the story you want to tell will always be somebody who will to your audience. Rather than find an opportunity to inform the just being in conversation with world about attempts to control the audience, one has to enter the virtual space, reaching millions people’s narratives. Social media of people within a few seconds. offers a wide range of platforms, 9. Social media can provide a good including mobile ones, which sense of how states and non- enable you to target your message state groups operate, and what and choose the appropriate form their intentions and strategies of communication (text, picture, are. Publicly available information infographic, video, emojis, etc.). on social media also helps to However, it is important to note understand what ‘bad actors’ want that for governments or public to say and how they target their sector organisations, the task of audiences. However, analysing convincing audiences to accept their activities on public networks their narrative is quite challenging is not enough, as most of their because, as some experts say, activities (such as coordination, “today, influence decidedly rests in recruitment etc.) take place in the hands of the mass population closed networks, or the so-called […] ‘a person like yourself’ […] dark web. This is why the ability to is almost twice as trusted as a access information in this space is government official”84.2. becoming more important. New 8. There have been several attempts approaches to analysis should by states to impose restrictions on be developed that would lead internet and social media usage, to a better capability to detect or even to create their own social disinformation strategies (bot, media platforms. However, one troll detection), as well as combine has to acknowledge that in the data from both publicly available new information environment it is information and closed networks. almost impossible to completely block access to information or the capacity to disseminate it. With the 24 Presentation by Simon Collister (London College of Communication, University of the Arts, London) at the NATO StratCom COE New Trends in Social Media workshop, Riga, 18 April 2016. 44 RECOMMENDATIONS

Be aware of the power of technology Be present – frequent but and use it. It is important to follow relevant information gives more the changes that technological opportunities to be heard. Social developments bring. A shift in mind- media is no longer about survival of set is important – rather than blaming the quickest, it is about survival of the social media platforms for their newest. That means creating more inability to counter extremism and content and more quickly, but that disinformation on their networks, remains relevant and targeted. Active we should target those who are engagement requires content to be as using these media for manipulative targeted and relevant as possible and purposes. As Nicole Matejic wrote, to be pushed out frequently – volume “to fight social media fires, you really matters in the new information need to be familiar with the same environment. The lessons learned tools, apps, channels and platforms from the recent NATO exercises as your audience”85.3. Even if that (Response Force exercise Trident means using augmented reality Juncture 2015 – TRJE15) demonstrate platforms or social media platforms that it is important to ensure an for internal communication. The extensive presence on social media, latter can be a very efficient tool for otherwise the actors interested in building employer advocacy that is disseminating anti–NATO messages encouraging all employees to become will dominate. For example, during ambassadors for your brand. the TRJE15 exercise, anti–NATO 83 sentiments decreased gradually as 843 Nicole Matejic, Social Media Rules of Engagement, John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd, the messaging from pro–NATO voices 2015, p. 128 45 increased. This also means finding Think mobile. All communication influential voices in respective nations efforts should be developed so that that will disseminate NATO’s content on they meet the needs of the users social media in their local languages. of mobile devices, as they now constitute the majority of internet Be prepared for social media risk users. This is about providing short, and try to limit it. In such a massive attractive content, easy to use and organization as NATO, controlling the share on mobile devices. narrative is a major challenge. And social media has numerous examples Adopt a comprehensive approach of faux pas or serious mistakes putting to counter adversarial information users’ or their organisation’s security activities. That means finding credible at risk. Obviously, any social media voices within the audiences that could communication strategy should include speak for you (government voices are a social media risk strategy. One of the not that powerful), identifying cultural answers to this challenge is education touch points (such as inter-personal and increasing the social media literacy values, behaviours, norms, trends, of communicators and employees, etc.) and using them to your advantage, both in terms of their professional and as well as identifying the platforms personal presence in social networks. the adversary is using and denying A clear social media usage policy and them access to them. The frameworks employee training are two prerequisites on how to react to manipulation and for restricting potential security disinformation are being extensively breaches. studied, however governments need to adapt and start using them. A Create highly targeted content and more aggressive approach would disseminate it in an integrated way. involve mobilizing the public against Information relevant to people is what extremism and blending in with pre- matters. Because of the information existing groups and efforts fighting overload people face in the digital space, extremism (hackers, opinion leaders, it is important to speak to targeted activists, ‘elves’), and encourage them audiences and in a relevant manner to be a part of this “warfare” in the rather than trying to reach out to broad information space. This approach has audiences with abstract messages significant ethical and legal constraints which are not relevant to them. however, such as the ability to identify 46 threats and declare ‘war’ status of creative methods should be used enabling democratic government to more actively by governments and use more radical methods to counter military staff. disinformation in the information space. Develop attractive branding. Governments are less proficient at Use crowd-source support on social selling their brands than are the 864 media with a similar approach to that private sector or extremists – not terrorist groups (Daesh in particular) or because they do not know how to humanitarian organisations are using. communicate with the public, but This also means the more creative because they need much more effort use of modern technology that would to make their brand more attractive. encourage voluntary support and Development of a more attractive and mobilise the public to action. For engaging brand that includes certain example, Daesh was able engage up lifestyle features, values, etc. and to 40 000 sign-ups for their Dawn of leveraging them for the government’s Glad Tidings app that automatically cause would provide more public disseminated Daesh propaganda support. Private sector players and from their accounts. Another example extremists are already achieving this, was given in the study Examining ISIS we need to learn from them. Support and Opposition Networks on Twitter published in 2016 by the RAND Do not overestimate support from Corporation. Analysis of Twitter over social media users – not all of it is ten months showed that, although relevant. There are several types of the number of Daesh opponents of internet users from very active to was six times bigger than that of its very passive ones, and you cannot supporters, the former produced reach everybody out there. An often 87 5 50% more tweets per day . . Inviting misplaced belief of communicators the public to engage through the use is that the active social media

485 Wikipedia: Crowdsourcing is the participants fully represent public process of obtaining needed services, ideas, or opinion. In fact, they are only the content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, especially an online community, most easily reached part, but by no rather than from employees or suppliers. 586 http://www.rand.stfi.re/pubs/ means everybody. Fundamentally, research_reports/RR1328.html?sf=vkdvjlo&utm_ a very small number of people can content=buffer8e1e7&utm_ medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_ help get your message out. According campaign=buffer#aa 47 to an Estonian study, around 12% of Foreign and Commonwealth Office all social media users are active and and the European Parliament) in their ready to create content, share it or communication efforts. Observing become involved in discussions. It young users closely can be a good is these users you should try to get method of finding indicators of future involved. Counting ‘likes’ and the social media developments. overall number of followers of your account is irrelevant however, as Look for more flexible and lean most of them are passive users, and approaches in analysing and many of them don’t even receive your engaging in social media. One of message (as it is not sent out in the the solutions that is currently being right time and perhaps is lost among developed by the NATO Science many other messages). We should and Technology Organisation is the not expect all messages on the screen Digital and Social Media Playbook to be noticed by users, because of – a rolling and constantly updated the wrong timing or format of the information-environment assessment message. As Christina Archetti said, tool whose purpose is understanding “availability of information doesn’t the aims, tactics and methods used mean reach, and reach doesn’t mean by adversaries in the information impact”88.6. space, in order to make our own target audiences more resilient to Follow closely what the younger manipulation. It is based on a lean generation is using – they will be the mind-set, constant adaptability to the ones who will try out and play with current situation and new trends, as new tools. For example, Snapchat was well as on the analysis of adversaries’ initially popular exclusively among tactics, experience sharing and teenagers but is now also attracting learning by many cooperation more older users897 and is also being partners. It is also vital not to limit the increasingly exploited by business analysis to collecting social metrics and government organisations (for (e.g., numbers of ‘likes’ or followers), example, the White House, UK but to go deeper than simple statistics. 687 Strategic Communication in Counter Terrorism: Target Audience Analysis, Measures of Effect, and Counter Narrative, Baseline Report, NATO COE DAT, Ankara Turkey, 04-05 June 2014 887 Snapchat and the Generational Divide. 5 July 2016, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ Snapchat-generational-divide-enrique-dans 48 For a better understanding of crises, Remember that social media “is combine digital data with information about sociology and psychology provided by actors on the ground more than technology”90 8 (organisations working on the ground, Social media is one of possible observations by locals, etc.). Digital communication channels. Everything data can bring a lot of information you communicate should be the and feedback about situations in crisis result of deliberate strategic intent. and conflict zones. It also makes it Your communication mustn’t be much easier to analyse and measure accidental. Every social media post the effectiveness of communication should be aimed at using your social efforts. However, social media analysis media networks for a precisely defined tools, even the most sophisticated objective. On social media, the weight ones, cannot provide all the answers of what you say is always influenced – it is important to look beyond social by the weight of how and where you media to get results that could better say it. Target your efforts and measure reflect real facts. Good lessons can be their effects. And remember that your learned from humanitarian disaster audience is looking for a story, but if relief organisations and their efforts you can’t communicate in real life, in preparing for potential crises in “all the social media tools in the world advance. A lot of data can be gathered won’t help you”. 91 9 by simply mapping and monitoring activities on the ground by involving local organisations and institutions, crowd source data or by hiring locals to provide regular updates for you by observing certain processes (for example, gathering information from locals on how many bakeries are open in conflict zones).

889 Brian Soli’s quotation used in the article of Nicole Matejic 3 things Anthony Robbins reminded me about communication: http://www. infoopshq.com/2016/10/02/3-things-anthony- robbins-reminded-me-about-communication/ 909 Nicole Matejic, Social Media Rules of Engagement, John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd, 2015, p. 105