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New Trends in Social Media ISBN 978-9934-8644-7-6 1 NEW TRENDS IN SOCIAL MEDIA PREPARED BY THE NATO STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE 1 ISBN 978-9934-8644-7-6 NEW TRENDS IN SOCIAL MEDIA Project director: Beata Bialy, Sanda Svetoka Text Editor: Juris Beņķis Production & Copy Editor:Linda Curika The NATO StratCom Centre of Excellence, based in Latvia, is a multinational, cross-sector organization which provides comprehensive analyses, advice and practical support to the alliance and allied nations. This report is a product of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (NATO StratCom COE). It is produced for NATO, NATO member countries, NATO partners, related private and public institutions and related individuals. It does not represent the opinions or policies of NATO. © All rights reserved by the NATO StratCom COE. Reports may not be copied, reproduced, distributed or publicly displayed without reference to the NATO StratCom COE. Cover photo: Alex Ingram Flickr creative commons licence Riga, December 2016 NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence Riga, Kalnciema iela 11b, Latvia LV1048 www.stratcomcoe.org Ph.: 0037167335463 [email protected] 2 OUR LATEST PUBLICATIONS 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD ………...................................................................................................................……………………..4 INTRODUCTION………………………………………..................................................................…..……6 SOCIAL MEDIA TRENDS……………………….........................................................................................…………7 Social media – from participation to monetizing …...................................................………...7 Globalisation and consolidation of social media ……..................................................…......10 Mobile revolution as a game changer …………………..........................................……...12 Towards closed networks …………………………………….......................................................………16 Social media content: less text, more image ………….................................................….....19 Real time forms of communication…………………….....................................................………23 Future social media innovations ………………………...........................................................……...25 Social media as a source of news ……………………......................................................……….27 From social exchange to powerful weapon ………….........................................................………30 Attempts to control the internet ……………………….........................................................………36 SURVEY ON NATO STRATCOM PERSONNEL’S UNDERSTANDING AND USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA .....… 38 CONCLUSIONS ………………………………………………........................................................................................... 41 RECOMMENDATIONS…………………………………....................................................................................….......44 4 FOREWORD In the current media landscape, warfare. Since its development social media has taken on a very in the early 2000s, social media prominent role. It has evolved into a has become an important tool mainstream information channel and for influencing people’s attitudes, developed into a new online platform beliefs and behaviour. Both states through which people organise their and terrorist groups are exploiting lives. Social media influences almost social media platforms effectively and every aspect of human interaction, experimenting with the engagement and the online and offline worlds are techniques and types of content that increasingly merging. best achieve their political or military goals. Social media has become one of the main channels through which In order to be better prepared for people connect and communicate, this rapidly changing information as well as getting news, however environment, the Polish National as the technology develops, social Ministry of Defence requested media consumption habits and that the NATO StratCom Centre communication models are also of Excellence explore the current changing unpredictably, both in terms trends in social media, analyse its of speed and direction. potential development in the future, including usage patterns, models of Social media has also emerged as a communication and engagement powerful weapon, used more and techniques. more frequently in information 5 This report is the outcome of that request and will seek to: Social media has also - Identify social media trends in emerged as a powerful types of platform and content. weapon, used more - Analyse usage patterns. and more frequently in - Analyse the expectations from information warfare. the further opportunities social media offers NATO and its member states. - Discuss the threats and opportunities presented by the use of social media, as well as The report includes social media analyse current gaps in NATO’s usage statistics and a literature review, communications via social as well as lessons learned from the media. communication efforts during recent - Develop recommendations on NATO exercises. Finally, it presents the how to further improve current main outcome from the survey carried communication techniques in out by NATO StratCom COE on the order to support the strategic perception, understanding and use of communication needs of social media by NATO communication governments, armed forces and personnel. NATO in the future. The report summarises the conclusions of the expert seminar New Trends in Social Media, organised in Riga on 18-19 April 2016 by NATO StratCom COE. The seminar attracted more than 50 communication practitioners, industry representatives and academics. 6 INTRODUCTION Interest in social media development based on gender, age, country, and efforts to predict ‘the next big leisure and consumption habits, etc.1 thing’ have been hot topics for In a very broad perspective, these communicators, marketers, investors statistical data can delineate usage and governments since its advent. patterns and give a sense of how they Questions – such as which platforms have changed over time. However, for your audiences are using, how better more elaborated results and a real to approach and reach them, where understanding of which audiences they could potentially migrate to in are using which platforms and how, the future, and has any revolutionary more targeted research is required, new platform been developed that assessing the specific requirements of will replace the currently popular ones the audiences of interest. This report – have been on the agenda for anyone presents the most visible trends trying to promote brands. Hundreds observed in social media during the of research companies and think tanks last few years. provide regular statistical updates on global and regional usage patterns 1 Examples of global statistical trends can be found at: globalwebindex.net, http:// www.statista.com/,http://wearesocial.com/uk/ special-reports/digital-in-2016, http://www. smartinsights.com/social-media-marketing/ social-media-strategy/new-global-social-media- research/, as well as the websites of many other internet research companies focusing on specific countries. 7 SOCIAL MEDIA TRENDS SOCIAL MEDIA – social media corporations that today can offer a variety of services such FROM PARTICIPATION TO as instant photo/video sharing, live MONETIZING video streaming, direct messaging, match-making – all interconnected on one platform. The early history of social media goes back to the 1980s and amateur- Several factors can be identified driven discussion forums such as as having driven the development USENET groups or Bulletin Board of social media and its evolution Systems (BBS) where people gathered over time. Originally, the need for to share their views, interests and connectedness was what encouraged experiences. Over time, they grew many people to start using social into sites that connected friends and media sites. At the time Web 2.0 relatives, either people you already provided technical opportunities for knew (like Classmates.com) or people the rise of social media in the early you connect to through networks of 2000s, ‘participatory culture’ was your friends (like SixDegrees.com). the buzzword phrase designating the Friendster (based on a similar idea web’s potential to provide wide-range to SixDegrees.com), created in 2002, connections, build communities and was the first social media site to reach advance democracy. This connectivity 1 million members. From there, social quickly evolved into a valuable media gradually developed into large resource, as software engineers 8 NUMBERS OF SOCIAL NETWORK USERS WORLDWIDE FROM 2010 TO 2019 (BILLIONS) 3 2.72 2.55 2.5 2.39 2.22 2.04 2 1.87 1.59 1.5 1.4 1.22 0.97 1 Number of users in billions Number of users 0.5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* ©Statista 2016 found ways to code information into with clear market leader Facebook algorithms that helped commercial having 1.59 billion active users alone3. brands identify their particular form It is predicted that this number will of online sociality and so make continue to grow in line with the them profitable in online markets. rapid increase in mobile device and Large and influential platforms such smartphone usage4. as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and LinkedIn exploded in numbers of The push for monetizing started to users and monetizing potential, along be visible even in those platforms with numerous smaller profit-based which had been previously reluctant and non-profit sites2. If we look at to
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