This report describes our plan to maintain a secure balance between water supplies and demands in the region served by AW055/03/08 Main Report, April 2008 Draft Water Resources Management Plan Draft Water Covers.indd 2 16/4/08 12:10:50 PM aê~Ñí=t~íÉê=oÉëçìêÅÉë=j~å~ÖÉãÉåí=mä~å=^éêáä=OMMU== = = CONTENTS Chapter Page Executive Summary 1 1. Introduction 7 2. Regional Overview of Water Resources 11 3. Methodology and Models 33 4. Details of the Water Resources Zones 53 WRZ1 South Humberside 54 WRZ2 Lincoln 59 WRZ3 Lincolnshire Coastal 64 WRZ4 Lincolnshire Fens 67 WRZ5 Fenland 71 WRZ6 North Norfolk Coast 75 WRZ7 Norfolk Rural 80 WRZ8 Norwich & the Broads 84 WRZ9 Cambridgeshire & East Suffolk 88 WRZ10 East Suffolk & Essex 93 WRZ11 Ruthamford 99 WRZ12 Hartlepool 104 5. Our Proposed Water Resources Plan 107 Abbreviations, Acronyms and Terms 115 Appendix List of Consultees 117 Draft Water Resources Management Plan April 2008== = = EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. The preparation of a Water Resources Management Plan (WRMP) is a new statutory process. It allows for consultation on this Draft WRMP, our publication of a Statement of Response to representations received later in 2008, prior to the submission of a Final WRMP to Defra in April 2009 for its approval. Defra is advised by the Environment Agency throughout the process. We have worked with the Environment Agency’s water resource planners in the preparation of this report. 2. The Main Report is accompanied by a Summary Report for readers wanting an overview of the WRMP and the strategy that it describes, without the detail of the analytical tools given in Chapter 3 of this report. The Summary Report provides a regional overview of our strategy for the management of water resources, where Chapter 4 of this report provides a more detailed description of the supply-demand balance in each of the 11 Water Resource Zones that make up our supply area in the Anglian region plus the Hartlepool area. 3. The challenges we face as a company are detailed in our Strategic Direction Statement (SDS) published in December 2007. In particular the impact of housing growth, environmental pressures, climate change and customer expectations have a strong bearing on this plan. 4. Our strategic priorities identified that we will increase the resilience of our water and wastewater services, secure and conserve water resources, anticipate and invest for growth in our region and mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts. 5. Figure 1, taken from our SDS, shows the linkages between the challenges we face, our key priorities and our company strategy for the next 25 years Figure 1 Strategic direction = Page 1 of 117 Draft Water Resources Management Plan April 2008== = = 6. The WRMP is required to address the challenges to water supplies from growth, climate change and environmental legislation. We operate in one of the fastest growing regions in the country, we operate in the driest region of the country and therefore have vulnerability to drought, and we have more water- dependent, European-designated conservation sites in our supply area than any other water company. 7. We have reviewed and updated the methodologies and processes that we used to develop our Water Resources Plans produced in 1999 and 2004. We concluded that these provide a sound basis for the analysis of the supply- demand balance and the derivation of the assumptions that need to be made when looking forward over 25 years from 2010 to 2025. In particular we have carried out detailed analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources following the guidance provided by the Environment Agency. 8. Our analysis shows that although we have historically developed sufficient water resources to provide supplies to meet the demand for water today we will need to invest to maintain secure supplies in the future. The need for investment will be detailed in our Draft Business Plan submission to Ofwat in August 2008 that will be used to set charges for water services for the period 2010 to 2015. The potential deficit of 246 Ml/d at average and 196 Ml/d at peak demand in 2035 compares with the current quantities of water available for use of 1375 Ml/d at average and 1816 Ml/d at peak demand. 9. An important factor in defining the potential deficit in the availability of water supplies to meet forecast demand is the need for a planning allowance, or target headroom, to address the risks and uncertainties in our calculation of the supply-demand balance. Using the industry standard methodology we require a margin of 5 per cent to maintain the security of supplies in the current year and have allowed for an increase to 15 per cent during the planning period. The extent to which headroom has been used to address an imbalance of water available for use against our demand forecast is reviewed and reset every five years for a new WRMP. 10. The main drivers for headroom are the uncertainties over population growth and the level of water consumption by domestic customers. Our demand forecast assumes that the population served will increase by up to 18 per cent or some 850,000 people between 2010 and 2035. We have also assumed a decline in measured water consumption to 129 l/h/d by 2030. This recognises Government expectations as outlined in its recent strategy ‘Future Water’1. We plan to continue to promote water efficiency initiatives, but equally water savings are achieved through customer behaviour and effective regulation, particularly for the construction of water-efficient new homes. A further driver for headroom is the uncertainty associated with the impact of climate change on water resources. 11. In developing the Draft WRMP we have followed the ‘twin-track approach’ of using demand management alongside water resource development. We have already successfully achieved a high level of meter penetration, a low level of leakage from our water mains and our customers’ current level of water consumption compares favourably with the rest of the country. Our demand forecast assumes that water consumption by our metered customers will ============================================ 1 ‘Future Water: The Government’s water strategy for England’, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, 2008 = Page 2 of 117 Draft Water Resources Management Plan April 2008== = = decline as a result of the planned continued promotion of water efficiency and that leakage from our water mains will be held at around 210 Ml/d. This represents a significant reduction in terms of losses per kilometre of water mains and per property served. 12. We have included demand management proposals in our supply-demand balance analysis through further targeted leakage control, enhanced metering, pressure reduction schemes, the installation of water-efficiency devices and water audits. These options are normally selected in preference to larger resource development options. 13. We have allowed for an increase in the number of our customers paying water charges by a meter from the current level of 60 per cent to 90 per cent by 2035 in our baseline forecast. The supply-demand balance analysis includes the option for targeted metering to address local supply deficits. We have also integrated enhanced metering in our supply schemes for areas with high growth, such as Colchester and the large towns in the west of our region. This follows the model of our recent project in Ipswich where we installed meters at all homes where installation is practical. Customers can then choose to pay measured water charges by opting to switch and will be subject to paying measured charges by moving to an existing metered home. Both targeted and enhanced metering accelerate the water savings we have included in our baseline forecast, but do not increase them. 14. In developing the WRMP we have considered the use of compulsory metering as required following the designation by Defra of the Anglian region as an area of serious water stress, using the methodology developed by the Environment Agency. In reviewing our metering policy we have taken into account a range of issues, including its success to date, the cost and benefits of blanket compulsory metering and issues of affordability. We have concluded that compulsory metering of our remaining unmeasured customers is not appropriate at this stage but could be reviewed in 2015. Our 90 per cent penetration on domestic water meters by 2035 will be achieved by the continued metering of all new homes built and proactive customer campaigns. 15. We have committed significant resources over the last two years to evaluate all options available to develop additional water resources, including unconstrained options. These are described in detail in Chapter 4 with those selected following supply-demand balance modelling summarised in Chapter 5. The selected resource development schemes fall into five main categories: i. transfer an available surplus to an area of potential deficit ii. re-use of water that is currently discharged to tidal waters iii. use our currently unused licensed quantities iv. development of groundwater resources, where available v. transfer or reallocation of abstraction licences 16. Our supply-demand balance model analyses for a surplus or deficit in each of 85 planning zones throughout the 25-year planning period. It identifies where there is a reliable surplus available and will allocate this for transfer to adjacent zones. Similarly the development of a new water resource will be shared between zones using the existing trunk main and distribution network