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Edited by Vice Admiral Pradeep Chauhan Captain (Dr.) Gurpreet S Khurana MARITIME PERSPECTIVES 2017 Edited by Vice Admiral Pradeep Chauhan and Captain (Dr.) Gurpreet S Khurana First Published in 2018 Copyright © National Maritime Foundation ISBN: 978-81-932998-5-2 Rs. 600.00 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission of the editors and the publisher. The views expressed in this volume are of the individual contributors and do not represent the official policy or position of the National Maritime Foundation, the Indian Navy, or the Government of India. Published by: NatiONAL MARITIME FOUndatiON Varuna Complex, Airport Road, NH-8, New Delhi-110 010 Printed by: Alpha Graphics 6A/1, Ganga Chambers, W.E.A., Karol Bagh, New Delhi-110005 Mobile : 9312430311 Email : [email protected] Foreword The seas around us are gaining new-found importance as each day goes by, and I have no doubt that the current century is the ‘Century of the Seas’. As India once again turns to the seas in her quest to emerge as a resurgent maritime nation, the environment in the Indian Ocean Region, and the larger Indo-Pacific, is characterised by an unusual complexity. At the National Maritime Foundation (NMF), we seek to unravel and understand the multiple threads that run across our maritime neighbourhood, with a view to promoting the continued constructive and peaceful use of the maritime domain. The NMF’s ever-growing community of contributors, write on strategic maritime issues, and analyse the implications of larger geopolitical game plays in the Indo- Pacific Region, which has emerged as the world’s centre of gravity in the maritime domain. This is manifested in numerous Commentaries, Issue Briefs and Policy Briefs, and Reports on the many dialogues and discussions that we participate in, throughout the year. ‘Maritime Perspectives’ collates the best of these contributions, aiming to review the challenges and opportunities, and fill as many spaces in the large maritime jigsaw puzzle in the region and beyond. In consonance with India’s sustained maritime reach, the NMF is also constantly seeking to expand its horizons, through collaborative efforts with partners all over the world, and in seeking academic contributions from varied sources. The 2017 edition of ‘Maritime Perspectives’, is an apt representation of this aspect, and I am confident that it will contribute immensely to our understanding of the many developments, the inferences therein, and their impact across the global commons. Admiral RK Dhowan PVSM, AVSM, YSM (Retd.) Chairman National Maritime Foundation Contents Foreword 5 BLUE ECONOMY & MARINE ENVIRONMENT IMOs Views on Shipping and India’s Sagarmala: Examining the Convergences 15 G. Padmaja Ballast Water Management (BWM) Convention: Late Implementation, Huge Impact 23 Kapil Narula Analysis of the Union Budget 2017: The Maritime Context 27 Vasudha Chawla Blue Economy: A Catalyst for India’s ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ 30 Adarsh Vijay India-Bangladesh Maritime Trade: Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade (PIWTT) 33 Vasudha Chawla Implementing SDG 14: Takeaways from the Ocean Conference 41 Kapil Narula Domestic Cruise Tourism in India: An Assessment 45 Vasudha Chawla One Trillion Tons: The Iceberg, Antarctica and Climate Change 53 Sanjay Misra 7 CHINA, US AND DEVELOPMENTS IN PACIFIC-ASIA CPEC Drives China-Pakistan Naval Cooperation 59 Manpreet S Chawla China - Sri Lanka Strategic Hambantota Port Deal 62 Anjelina Patrick China’s 12th National People’s Congress (NPC) 2017: Matters ‘Maritime’ and ‘One Belt One Road’ 69 Dolma Tsering Djibouti: A Roadway to China’s “Indian Ocean Dream” 72 Amrita Jash China’s “Blue Partnership” through the Maritime Silk Road 75 Amrita Jash Melaka Gateway Port: An Analysis 83 Anjelina Patrick Revival of Quadrilateral: A shift in India’s Policy towards China? 92 Dinesh Yadav ‘Indo-Pacific’ was always about China? Yes, but let’s not cross the ‘Red Line’ 96 Gurpreet S Khurana Will Donald Trump Rebalance The ‘Rebalance’? 100 Gurpreet S Khurana The South China Sea Dispute: moving towards a Military Showdown? 103 Prakash Gopal Pivot, Rebalance, Et Cetera: What Next? The Future of US Engagement in Asia 106 Sanjay Misra The North Korean Crisis: A Geopolitical Analysis 113 Shahana Thankachan Duterte’s Foreign Policy Shift: Bandwagoning with China? 121 Jyotishman Bhagawati 8 MARITIME SECURITY AND LAW Piracy in the Gulf of Aden: Isn’t it time already for the Warships to head home? 131 Dinesh Yadav Illegal Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing in Palk Bay: Issues and Challenges 134 R. S. Vasan Rohingya Crisis: A Potential Maritime Quagmire for India 140 Dinesh Yadav Maritime Dimension of Hybrid Warfare – The Indian Context 144 Gurpreet S Khurana Retrieving Kachchatheevu for India: A Non-Starter? 148 Alyona Seth Right of Innocent Passage for Fishing Vessels: Issues and Challenge 156 RS Vasan Proposed Chinese Law on Maritime Traffic Safety: Interpretations and Implications 159 Prakash Gopal Lessons from Recent Spate of Collisions at Sea: Back to Basics? 162 RS Vasan NAVAL POWER The Indian Navy and India’s Overseas Citizens: Operations Sukoon and Rahat 169 Bhargav Acharya China’s Aircraft Carrier: ‘Dreadnought’ or ‘Doctrinal Dilemma’? 176 Gurpreet S Khurana Coral Sea to the China Seas: The Carrier as a Constant 179 Sanjay Misra 9 The Changing Contours of Underwater Maritime Warfare in the South China Sea 185 R.S. Vasan Strategic Salience of Andaman and Nicobar Islands: Economic and Military Dimensions 188 Pranay VK ‘Beyond Hardware and Technology’: The Intangibles of China’s Naval Power (Part 1) 196 Gurpreet S Khurana ‘Beyond Hardware and Technology’: The Intangibles of China’s Naval Power (Part 2) 205 Gurpreet S Khurana ‘Beyond Hardware and Technology’: The Intangibles of China’s Naval Power (Part 3) 212 Gurpreet S Khurana Missing Argentine Submarine ‘San Juan’: Issues and Inferences 223 RS Vasan INDIA: COMPREHENSIVE MARITIME ENGAGEMENT 227 The ‘Indo-Pacific’ Concept: Retrospect and Prospect 229 Gurpreet S Khurana Significance of Civilizational Nautical Narratives in India’s Maritime Diplomacy 237 G. Padmaja Australian Prime Minister’s visit to India: An Assessment in the Maritime Context 246 Eshita Rudra Sheikh Hasina’s Visit to India: Consolidating Maritime Cooperation 250 G. Padmaja 10 The Rohingya ‘Refugees’ : Regional Responses and Ramifications 258 Anjelina Patrick India-Japan Asia Africa Growth Corridor: An Assessment 266 Shahana Thankachan Re-converging India-Indonesia ‘Strategic Tridents’: Economics, Security and Geopolitics 273 Surbhi Moudgil India and Mauritius: Cooperating to Ensure Collective Maritime Security 281 G. Padmaja India’s Plan for Tsunami Warning System in South China Sea: An Analysis 290 Yudhajeet Sinha A new beginning for ‘Code of Conduct’ in South China Sea: Is one required for the Indian Ocean 297 Gurpreet S Khurana BIMSTEC: Where India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘ Act East’ meet 301 G. Padmaja Indian President’s visit to Djibouti: Fulfilling a Strategic Necessity 311 G.Padmaja 11 Blue Economy & Marine Environment IMOs Views on Shipping and India’s Sagarmala: Examining the Convergences G. Padmaja Introduction having ratified the convention which established IMO.3 The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has selected - ‘Connecting Ships, According to the United Nations Ports and People’- as the World Maritime Conference on Trade and Development Day theme for 2017.1The theme for (UNCTAD), around 80 per cent of 2016 was - ‘Shipping: indispensable to global trade by volume and 70 per cent the world’.2 The purpose of selecting of global trade by value are carried by these themes is to spell out the manner sea and handled by ports worldwide. in which shipping impacts the everyday This is because shipping is the most lives of ordinary people all over the cost-effective method of transportation world; highlight the contribution of of most goods. There are more than all individuals involved in the shipping 50,000 merchant ships trading industry; and to enhance awareness of internationally transporting every kind the role of IMO as the international of cargo. These ships are registered in regulatory body for international over 150 nations and over a million shipping. sea-fearers from almost every country are employed. Thus, in this globalised The IMO is a United Nations world, shipping facilitates commerce and specialized agency. Its primary role is thereby contributes to socio-economic to create a regulatory framework which development of nations.4 will ensure a safe, secure and efficient international shipping industry. India has In the above context, this issue acceded to about 32 of the Conventions/ brief spells out some of the regulatory Protocols adopted by IMO. It joined frameworks formulated by IMO for IMO as a member state in 1959, after the shipping industry; IMOs views 15 on shipping being indispensable to 1982. The IMO Convention entered the world; and the relevance of IMO’s into force in 1958.6 views on the present Indian narrative The purposes of the IMO, as regarding the critical role of shipping in summarized by Article 1(a) of the a nation’s development. This essay argues Convention, are “to provide machinery that given the growing interdependence for cooperation among Governments in between activities on sea and wealth the field of governmental regulation and created on land; and similarly, activities practices relating to technical matters of on land and safe shipping that takes all kinds affecting shipping engaged in place on sea - the sharp dividing line international trade; to encourage and in policies for land-based and sea-based facilitate the general adoption of the activities will soon be blurred. Secondly, highest practicable standards in matters there is a convergence in the IMOs and concerning maritime safety, efficiency of the Indian development narratives, for navigation and prevention and control both opine that the maritime strength of marine pollution from ships”.7 The of a country is crucial for its socio- Organization is also empowered to deal economic development.5 with administrative and legal matters International Maritime related to these purposes.
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