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Iresm INITIATIVE: UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS for CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION and ADAPTATION U.S. Midwest Region

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Iresm INITIATIVE: UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS for CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION and ADAPTATION U.S. Midwest Region PNNL-20104 Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 iRESM INITIATIVE: UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION U.S. Midwest Region J. Rice R. Moss P. Runci K. Anderson October 2010 PNNL - 20104 iRESM INITIATIVE: UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION U.S. Midwest Region J. Rice R. Moss P. Runci K. Anderson October 2010 Prepared for The U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington 99352 iii Abstract The increasing interest in regional modeling of climate change and associated decisions regarding mitigation and adaptation highlights the need to address the uncertainties that persist in projecting future climate change. Decision makers need tools and information to evaluate the implications of uncertainty for decisions that must be made before uncertainties can be reduced or resolved. Through its integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM) initiative, PNNL is developing a modeling framework to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and related uncertainties. This framework is intended as a research tool for the scientific community to explore regional mitigation and adaptation decisions, constraints, and opportunities under alternate climate policy and climate change futures. The initiative is also intended to encompass research into regional decision makers‘ needs for information and analysis regarding mitigation and adaptation in the context of uncertainty. This research will help guide the development of iRESM‘s capabilities and the communication of its results. This paper presents the results of the initial research into decision support needs for the first iRESM pilot region: the US Midwest. The region is defined to include the following 14 states: Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. The research includes interviews with regional stakeholders and a review of the published literature on mitigation and adaptation alternatives in the Midwest. The findings show that researchers as well as decision and policy makers in the Midwest are concerned about climate change impacts across a wide range of human and environmental systems and are focused on understanding the primary mitigation and adaptation opportunities and challenges within the region. The primary systems of concern for adaptation are in the areas of water resources, urban infrastructure, agriculture, recreation, ecosystems, forest management, and transportation. Potential adaptations include infrastructure modifications, technological developments, institutional changes, and ecosystem protection, enhancement, and manipulation. In the area of mitigation, the primary issues and uncertainties generally are related to: a. differential state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) b. the relative economics of technologies that reduce or eliminate GHG emissions compared to traditional technologies c. the viability of carbon storage alternatives (in both geological formations and terrestrial ecosystems). The findings demonstrate a need for better information on the interactions of socioeconomic development, climate change, natural resources, and adaptation and mitigation options. To support policy, investment, and risk management decisions, models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale such as iRESM need to be developed to better integrate climate, ecosystem, and energy- economic processes. iv Acronyms and Abbreviations CCS Carbon Capture and Sequestration CDP Carbon Disclosure Project CH4 Methane CO2 Carbon Dioxide CSO Combined Sewer Overflows DOE Department of Energy GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information System GTSP Global Technology Strategy Project IGCC Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change iRESM integrated Regional Earth System Model M&A Mitigation and Adaptation MRCSP Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory RPS Renewable Portfolio Standards SEIMF Spatially Explicit Integrative Modeling Framework v Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. iv Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... v 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1.1 2.0 Review of Stakeholder Engagement Methods .............................................................................. 2.1 2.1 Consultation with Stakeholder Engagement Professionals .................................................. 2.1 2.2 Literature Review of Stakeholder Engagement Methodologies ........................................... 2.2 3.0 Summary of Findings from Discussions with Midwest Decision-Makers ................................... 3.1 3.1 Mitigation Decision-Making in the Midwest ....................................................................... 3.1 3.1.1 The Implications of Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards .................................... 3.2 3.1.2 The Role of Midwest Agriculture in Climate Change Mitigation ............................. 3.3 3.2 Adaptation Decision-Making in the Midwest ...................................................................... 3.3 3.2.1 Managing Water Resources in an Uncertain Climate ............................................... 3.4 3.2.2 Adaptation Challenges for Ecosystems ..................................................................... 3.5 3.2.3 Adaptation to Rising Temperatures ........................................................................... 3.5 4.0 Review of Literature on Climate Change and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in the Midwest ........................................................................................................................................ 4.1 4.1 Mitigation Literature ............................................................................................................ 4.1 4.2 Adaptation Literature ........................................................................................................... 4.4 5.0 Synthesis of Findings and Implications for iRESM Model Development and Demonstration. ... 5.1 5.1 Implications for Model Development .................................................................................. 5.1 5.1.1 Mitigation Alternatives and Associated Uncertainties .............................................. 5.1 5.1.2 Adaptation Alternatives and Associated Uncertainties ............................................. 5.4 5.2 Implications for Model Demonstration ................................................................................ 5.6 Appendix A ........................................................................................................................................... A.1 Appendix B ........................................................................................................................................... B.1 Appendix C ........................................................................................................................................... C.1 Appendix D ........................................................................................................................................... D.1 vii Figures Figure 1.1. iRESM Midwest Region ................................................................................................... 1.3 Figure 4.1. Mitigation Literature Review Results – Study Breakdown ............................................... 4.2 Figure 4.2. Adaptation Literature Review Results – Study Breakdown .............................................. 4.5 Tables Table 2.1. Selected Stakeholder Engagement Tools: Objectives and Methodologies/Media ............ 2.2 Table 3.1. iRESM Midwest Stakeholder Institution Contacts, Chicago, Illinois, July 2010 ............. 4.3 Table 4.1. Literature Review Results – Energy Sector – Mitigation Alternatives, Key Issues and Uncertainties ...................................................................................................................... 4.3 Table 4.2. Literature Review Results – Other Sectors – Mitigation Alternatives, Key Issues, and Uncertainties ...................................................................................................................... 4.3 Table 4.3. Literature Review Results – Potential Midwest Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses ...................................................................................................... 4.6 Table 5.1. Midwest Mitigation Alternatives ....................................................................................... 5.4 Table 5.2. Midwest Adaptation Alternatives ...................................................................................... 5.5 Table 5.3. Key Uncertainties in the Midwest Region ......................................................................... 5.6 Table 5.4. Intersection of Key Midwest Issues and iRESM Science Questions ................................ 5.7 viii 1.0 Introduction The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental
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