17.10.2017-23.10.2017 • No: 134 7

EVALUATION OF THE 2017 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN On October 15, 2017, Kyrgyzstan held its sec- approved by the CEC. Two candidates, namely vote (Article 31). Ballots are automatically ond peaceful power transfer leading to delega- Kamchibek Tashiyev and Bakyt Torobayev, counted by precinct count optical scan (PCOS) tion of authority between the members of the withdrew from the elections by submitting ap- machines. During the recent parliamentary Social Democratic Party, which continues to be plications of their own volition. Since their elections, there were cases when voters could the ruling party holding the most parliamentary withdrawal occurred after the ballots were not find themselves in the lists or could not seats. The competition between the two main printed, in accordance with Article 30 of the vote because of technical failures of identifica- candidates running for president resulted in a constitutional law on presidential and parlia- tion equipment. According to the Office for resounding first-round victory of Sooronbai mentary elections in Kyrgyzstan, their names Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of Jeenbekov, the former prime minister and the were crossed out from the ballots. In fact, pres- the Organization for Security Cooperation in chosen candidate of outgoing President of Kyr- idential candidate Azimbek Beknazarov also Europe report, in 3% of polling stations ballot gyzstan , while his main announced his withdrawal from the 2017 pres- scanners had to be replaced due to equipment opponent , the former prime idential race, leaving 10 candidates to run on failures. Moreover, a significant number of minister and the leader of the opposition the election day. However, his name remained Kyrgyz citizens, mainly those residing abroad, Respublika Party, came second. In fact, despite on the ballot since he did not submit an official did not undergo the biometric registration and accusations of foul play from both sides, ar- application. was therefore unable to exercise their right to rests, pressure on the media and other cam- It was expected that there would be a close run- vote. paign violations, the recent elections in Kyr- off between Sooronbai Jeenbekov and According to Almaz Asanbaev, Deputy Chair- gyzstan offered a real political struggle and Omurbek Babanov. However, according to the person of the State Migration Service of choice, which made it hard to predict the elec- preliminary results of the presidential elections Kyzgyzstan, in 2017 over 710,000 Kyrgyz cit- tion results. There was no guarantee that the published by the CEC, Jooronbai Jeenbekov, a izens work abroad, including 616,000 in Rus- ruling party’s candidate would win the elec- 58-year-old political ally of incumbent Presi- sia, 30,000 in Kazakhstan and Turkey each, tions with an overwhelming majority. Both dent Almazbek Atambaev, gained 54.28%, or and 15,000 in South Korea. However, the Min- leading contenders, until the last minute, ex- 919,654, of votes, while his main opponent istry of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan in- pected to obtain a majority of votes, which is Omurbek Babanov, a 47-year-old wealthy en- formed that only 18,580 of voters staying an unprecedented situation for Central Asia. trepreneur, was the second leading candidate abroad were registered at the consulates. As a Indeed, Kyrgyzstan has had a turbulent politi- with 33.41%, or 566,188, of votes. Neverthe- result, the vast majority of labor migrants cal history since becoming independent in less, the gap between the top two leading can- working in Russia and other countries could 1991. First Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev didates appears to narrow in comparison with not vote because they did not submit biometric was overthrown in the 2005 Tulip Revolution, the 2011 presidential election results with data and failed to register with a relevant Kyr- while his successor was Almazbek Atambaev achieving an almost 50% gyz embassy or consulate in time. ousted in 2010. As a result, until recently, the advantage (62.52% vs. 14.77%) over his near- It is worth mentioning that despite intense only example of a peaceful power transit in the est rival. Other three leaders among the candi- competition neither of the leading candidates country was the post-revolution elections won dates include Adakhan Madumarov (6.42%, or showed intention to change Kyrgyzstan’s geo- by Almazbek Atambayev in 2011 following 110,174, of votes), (2.54%, or political course, with the country firmly in the brief interim presidency of Roza Otunba- 43,157, of votes), and Talatbek Masadykov Russia’s political and economic orbit com- yeva. (0.63%, or 10,728, of votes). The “against all” bined with the membership in the Eurasian According to the new Constitution developed option received nearly 0.72%, or 12,114, of Economic Union. In fact, the recent changes under the interim administration and approved votes. made in the constitution have weakened the of- by the referendum in June 2010, any Kyrgyz The turnout during the presidential elections fice of the president in favor of the Parliament citizen who is above the age of 35 and under reached 55.93%, meaning that 1,692,423 vot- and the prime minister. Therefore, presidential the age of 70, fluent in the state language and ers out of 3,025,770 million people who were powers in influencing the country’s foreign has been living in Kyrgyzstan for at least 15 eligible to vote took part in the elections at policy and determining priorities in trade and years in aggregate has the right to run for pres- 2,375 polling stations. It appears that despite defense will be limited by the Parliament, idency (Article 62). The same person cannot be the growth of the population from 5.5 million which makes it difficult for President-elect elected as the president twice to serve a six- in 2011 to 6.1 in 2017 the voter turnout, as the Jeenbekov to significantly change the geopolit- year term (Article 61). As a result, incumbent percentage of those registered, was lower than ical landmarks shaped under Atambayev’s six- President Almazbek Atambayev was barred at the 2011 presidential elections where year term even if he wanted to. from running for a second term. Since the num- 1,858,632 out of 3,032,666 registered voters It should be concluded that the incumbent pres- ber of candidates for president is not limited participated in the voting process. This may be ident invested great efforts in Jeenbekov’s vic- (Article 62), and the right to nominate candi- due to the introduction of the technology of bi- tory and even accused Kazakhstan of attempt- dates belongs to both citizens through self- ometric verification of voters, which was ap- ing to influence the elections results, which led nomination and political parties, there were 59 proved in 2014 and tested during the 2015 par- to the rise in tensions with Astana. As a result, people who had declared their intention to run liamentary elections. it could be expected that the incoming presi- for presidency. However, after the completion According to the current Kyrgyz election leg- dent together with recently appointed Prime of the necessary registration process, which in- islation, citizens could not be included in voter Minister would carry on in At- cludes the state language exam and the submis- lists without passing the biometric registration ambayev’s footsteps searching for opportuni- sion of at least 30,000 signatures in support, the in the Unified State Population Register (Arti- ties to improve relations with the closest neigh- Central Election Commission (CEC) shortened cle 14). After a voter’s identity is verified by bor. However, there is still a risk that the polit- the final list of candidates to 13 people, includ- polling officials, he/she gets a special printed ical tandem of Jeenbekov and Isakov will not ing three former prime ministers. For compari- cheque, which should be given to another poll- work properly being influenced by some third son, in 2011, 83 candidates submitted applica- ing official in return for a ballot. If his/her iden- power and creating potential for competition tions to run for presidency, but only 16 were tity is not confirmed, a voter is not allowed to and conflict. Written by Lidiya Parkhomchik, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan

Politics, Foreign Affairs and Security took part in the Unbreakable Brother- ($28.03 billion) of the GDP will ac- hood-2017 military exercises of the count for the non-oil sector, which  During their official visit to Tbilisi, Collective Security Treaty Organiza- will grow to 2.9% next year. Defense Minister of Azerbaijan, tion (CSTO) at the Ilyisky training  According to the Kazakh national Colonel General Zakir Hasanov, and ground in Kazakhstan. The drills are railway company, Kazakhstan Temir Chief of the General Staff of Turkey, aimed to practice the post-conflict Zholy, the first million tons of cargo General Hulusi Akar, discussed with settlement involving CSTO peace- was sent to the Azerbaijan’s port of Chief of the General Staff of Georgia, keeping forces. Baku from Kazakhstan’s port of Major General Vladimer Chachibaia,  According to the spokesman of Rus- Kuryk on the Caspian coast. It was the development of cooperation in the sia’s Pacific Fleet, Captain 2nd Rank noted that Kazakh grain, coal, oil trilateral format and the role of armed Nikolai Voskresensky, the Indra- products, fertilizers, chemicals, as forces in ensuring regional stability. 2017 Russia-India drills took place in well as transit cargo coming from The sides also exchanged views on Vladivostok. It was noted that the China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, the implementation of practical activ- 2017 joint Indo-Russian military drill were exported via the Kuryk ferry ities in ensuring the security of re- included army, navy, and air force el- complex.

gional projects. ements for the first time. . Society and Culture  During his official visit to Astana, Economy, Finance and Energy Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan Sapar  According to Ministry of Transport, Isakov discussed with his Kazakh  According to the state-owned Russian Communications and High Technolo- counterpart Bakytjan Sagintayev bor- gas producer, Gazprom, more than gies of Azerbaijan, the country is ne- der issues, including transport, phyto- 1,095 kilometers of the Power of Si- gotiating with relevant authorities of sanitary and veterinary control, cus- beria natural gas pipeline, or 50.7% of Turkey, Iran, Qatar and Ukraine on toms and tax administration. The the total length from the Cha- the mutual recognition of electronic sides also agreed on creation of a yandinskoye gas field to the city of signatures. It was noted that currently, working group co-chaired by the first Blagoveshchensk, has been con- work is underway to develop e-ser- deputy prime ministers of Kazakhstan structed. vices and e-commerce in the country and Kyrgyzstan to prepare a joint  According to Federal Service for Vet- with the support of the European Un- road-map for bilateral economic rela- erinary and Phytosanitary Surveil- ion (EU), and as part of this project, tions. lance of Russia, Rosselkhoznadzor, standards are being prepared in the  During his official visit to Tehran, the country announced about its plans field of the EU regulation on elec- tronic identification and trust ser- Minister of Foreign Affairs of Uzbek- to authorize deliveries of agricultural vices. istan Abdulaziz Kamilov together products from 24 pomegranate and 7 with his Iranian counterpart Javad Za- aubergine planting companies from  According to Igor Komarov, the Head rif signed a cooperation plan between Turkey, which conform to Russian re- of State Space Corporation of Russia, the Foreign Ministries of the two quirements, starting from October 30, Roscosmos, the Russian side received countries for 2018-2019. 2017. an agreement in principle from Na- tional Aeronautics and Space Admin-  During his official visit to Ashgabat,  According to Finance Ministry of istration to jointly develop the Deep State Secretary and Deputy Foreign Azerbaijan, the European Bank for Space Gateway lunar program with is Minister of Russia Grigory Karasin Reconstruction and Development intended to create a near-Moon plat- discussed with Foreign Minister of (EBRD) allocated a $500 million loan form in 2024-2026. Turkmenistan Rashid Meredov pro- for the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas spects for further cooperation in the Pipeline (TANAP) project develop-  The United Nations Development political, trade, economic and cultural ment to the Azerbaijani state-owned Program together with the govern- spheres. The parties also expressed company, Southern Gas Corridor. ment of Uzbekistan launched a $1.2 their commitment to further expand- The loan is issued for a period of 18 million project on public administra- ing relations within the framework of years, and is guaranteed by the gov- tion reforms and digital transfor- international organizations. ernment of Azerbaijan. mation for 2017-2020 aimed at assist-  During the fifth meeting of the Minis-  According to the new draft law on the ing Uzbekistan in carrying out re- forms in the field of public admin- ters of Justice of the Shanghai Coop- state budget for 2018 of Azerbaijan, eration Organization member states the revenues and expenditures of the istration and providing quality public services. held in Tashkent, the parties dis- state budget in the country are fore- cussed further intensification of coop- cast at 20.127 billion manats ($11.85  According to the Statistics Commit- eration to ensure rule of law, protect billion) and 20.905 billion manats tee of Ministry of National Economy the rights and legitimate interests of ($12.31 billion), respectively. The of Kazakhstan, as of 1st September citizens, as well as exchange of rele- maximum deficit of the state budget 2017, the population of the country vant experience. was determined at the level of 778.7 amounted to 18.074 million, which is million manats ($458.48 million). 232,500 people or 1.3% more than as  According to Defense Ministry of Ka- of 1st September 2016. It was re- zakhstan, about 1,500 troops, 200  According to the Government of ported that the urban and rural popu- pieces of armament, military and spe- Azerbaijan, in 2018 the country’s real lations reached 10,367,400 (57.4%) cial hardware and over 25 aircraft GDP growth is forecasted at 1.5% or and 7,706,700 (42.6%) people, re- from Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, 69.4 billion manats ($40.86 billion). spectively. Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan At the same time, 47.6 billion manats

Prepared by Lidiya Parkhomchik, Dauren Aben, Daniyar Nurbayev