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IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species' Vulnerability to Climate Change

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IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species' Vulnerability to Climate Change I s u CN s IsuCN s C Guidelines C Gu idelines for for assessing species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change a ss essing editors: Wendy B. Foden and Bruce e. Young s pe cies’ Vulnerability Climate Change to INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE World Headquarters rue Mauverney 28 1196 Gland, switzerland tel: +41 22 999 0000 Fax: +41 22 999 0002 www.iucn.org Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59 IUCN Produced with support from About IUCN IUCN is a membership Union uniquely composed of both government and civil society organizations. It provides public, private and non-governmental organizations with the knowledge and tools that enable human progress, economic development and nature conservation to take place together. Created in 1948, IUCN is now the world’s largest and most diverse environmental network, harnessing the knowledge, resources and reach of 1,300 member organizations and some 15,000 experts. It is a leading provider of conservation data, assessments and analysis. Its broad membership enables IUCN to fill the role of incubator and trusted repository of best practices, tools and international standards. IUCN provides a neutral space in which diverse stakeholders including governments, NGOs, scientists, businesses, local communities, indigenous peoples organizations and others can work together to forge and implement solutions to environmental challenges and achieve sustainable development. Working with many partners and supporters, IUCN implements a large and diverse portfolio of conservation projects worldwide. Combining the latest science with the traditional knowledge of local communities, these projects work to reverse habitat loss, restore ecosystems and improve people’s well-being. www.iucn.org IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59 IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change Editors: Wendy B. Foden and Bruce E. Young Produced with support from The designation of geographical entities in this document, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN or the organisations of the authors and editors of the document concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of IUCN. Published by: IUCN, Cambridge, UK and Gland, Switzerland Copyright: © 2016 International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. Citation: Foden, W.B. and Young, B.E. (eds.) (2016). IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change. Version 1.0. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59. Cambridge, UK and Gland, Switzerland: IUCN Species Survival Commission. x+114pp. Suggested chapter citation (example) Huntley, B., Foden, W.B., Smith, A., Platts, P., Watson, J. and Garcia, R.A. (2016). Chapter 5. Using CCVAs and interpreting their results. In W.B. Foden and B.E. Young, editors. IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change. Version 1.0. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. pp 33–48. Available online at: http://www.iucn.org/theme/species/publications/guidelines and www.iucn-ccsg.org ISBN: 978-2-8317-1802-6 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.CH.2016.SSC-OP.59.en Cover photo: Polar Bear near Svalbard, Norway. © Josef Friedhuber, Getty Images. All photographs used in this publication remain the property of the original copyright holder (see individual captions for details). Photographs should not be reproduced or used in other contexts without written permission from the copyright holder. Layout by: NatureBureau Printed by: Langham Press Available from: IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature), Global Species Programme, 28 Rue Mauverney, 1196 Gland, Switzerland. Tel: + 41 22 999 0000, Fax: + 44 22 999 0002, www.iucn.org/resources/publications iv Contents Working group ........................................................................................................................................................................... viii Editors and authors ....................................................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................................................ x 1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................................................1 2. Setting the scene ....................................................................................................................................................................5 2.1 Definitions of commonly used terms ................................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Climate change vulnerability assessment approaches ......................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Correlative approaches ............................................................................................................................................. 8 2.2.2 Trait-based approaches ............................................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.3 Mechanistic approaches ........................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.4 Combined approaches ........................................................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Metrics for estimating climate change vulnerability .......................................................................................................... 11 2.3.1 Vulnerability indices and other relative scoring systems ........................................................................................ 11 2.3.2 Range changes ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.3.4 Population changes ................................................................................................................................................ 11 2.3.5 Extinction probabilities .......................................................................................................................................... 11 3. Setting climate change vulnerability assessment goals and objectives ............................................................................13 3.1 Defining your goal .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.1 Why are you carrying out this CCVA? ................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.2 Who is your audience? ........................................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.3 Which decisions do you hope to influence using the results? ................................................................................. 13 3.2 Defining your objectives ................................................................................................................................................. 14 3.2.1 Selecting a taxonomic focus ................................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.2 Selecting a spatial focus ......................................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.3 Selecting a timeframe ............................................................................................................................................ 14 4. Selecting and evaluating CCVA approaches and methods ............................................................................................... 17 4.1 Steps for selecting your CCVA approach and methods ................................................................................................... 17 Step 1. Identify and evaluate existing CCVAs ................................................................................................................ 17 Step 2. Identify CCVA approaches that meet your objectives ......................................................................................... 18 Step 3. Identify the CCVA approaches for which you have sufficient resources .............................................................. 19 Step
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