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TITAGARH WAGONS a I D Steady Quarter s p RESULT UPDATE a c d i M TITAGARH WAGONS a i d Steady quarter n I India Equity Research| Infrastructure - Railways Titagarh Wagons’ (TWL) Q2FY20 standalone revenue jumped 62% YoY to EDELWEISS RATINGS INR3bn driven by ramp up in execution in the wagons & coaches Absolute Rating BUY segment. This led to PAT surging 137% YoY to INR123mn. The company’s Investment Characteristics Growth performance could have been even better, but for issues in wheel sets availability, which impacted delivery of wagons to Indian Railways (IR); management expects the issue to be resolved by Q3FY20-end. Taking MARKET DATA (R: TITW.BO, B: TWL IN) cognizance of this, we trim FY20/21E earnings 4%/3%. Maintain ‘BUY’ CMP : INR 42 with revised SOTP‐based target price of INR61 (INR64 earlier) as we roll Target Price : INR 61 forward the valuation to March 2021E. 52-week range (INR) : 87 / 31 Share in issue (mn) : 115.6 M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 5 / 68 Future order inflow key for domestic businesses Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE (‘000) : 525.1 TWL received its maiden order for metro coaches in India worth INR10.6bn; this order from Pune Metro pertains to delivery of 36 trainsets. Including this, the company’s SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) order book stands at INR26bn (book-to-bill of 2.1x). Incremental order inflow from Current Q1FY20 Q4FY19 wagons (IR tender of about 10,000 wagons due to open in December 2019) and Promoters * 45.7 45.7 45.7 coaches (TWL targeting bids for metro rail projects) is a key catalyst for the stock, in MF's, FI's & BKs 9.8 10.1 10.1 our view. FII's 2.6 3.1 3.1 Corporate guarantee overhang in AFR; Firema outlook positive Others 41.8 41.1 41.0 * Promoters pledged shares : NIL A French court has approved the transfer of subsidiary AFR’s business and assets to (% of share in issue) another bidder and ordered its liquidation. As a result, TWL is no longer in control of AFR; its entire investment in AFR was written-off in Q4FY19. The ~INR325mn corporate PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) BSE Midcap Stock over guarantee given by TWL for AFR’s liabilities remains an overhang though. Management Stock Index Index expects FY20 revenue to be flat YoY in Firema; though top line will improve in FY21. 1 month 7.7 2.2 (5.5) Outlook and valuation: Well placed; maintain ‘BUY’ 3 months 8.6 21.3 12.7 12 months (0.8) (41.0) (40.2) Burgeoning investments in the railway space and thrust on wagon procurement in FY20 budget (refer to, 'Railways - Union Budget FY20: Railways chugging along) are key positives for TWL. That said, issues regarding availability of wheel sets has prompted a cut in our FY20/21E earnings by 4%/3%. Incremental order intake from IR, momentum in private sector orders and turnaround at Firema are key variables for the stock. We maintain ‘BUY’ with revised SOTP-based TP of INR61 as we roll forward the valuation to March 2021E. Financials (Standalone) (INR mn) Year to March Q2FY20 Q2FY19 % change Q1FY20 % change FY19 FY20E FY21E Parvez Akhtar Qazi Revenues 2,982 1,838 62.3 3,287 (9.3) 9,101 13,165 15,691 +91 22 4063 5405 EBITDA 237 112 110.7 283 (16.4) 538 1,103 1,330 [email protected] Adj. profit 123 52 136.9 137 (9.8) 441 519 627 Archit Ranka Dil. EPS (INR) 1.1 0.5 136.9 1.2 (9.8) 3.8 4.5 5.4 +91 22 4063 5523 P/BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.5 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 12.0 6.1 4.6 ROAE (%) 5.2 6.2 7.1 November 8, 2019 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Infrastructure - Railways Other highlights Consolidated order book break-down: INR51.6bn, of which INR23bn orders are in Firema, ~INR15bn are wagon orders in TWL standalone & Cimmco, ~INR10.6bn pertains to Pune Metro; balance belongs to EMU/MEMO/loco shells/ship building. While TWL dispatched 850 wagons during the quarter (950 in Q1FY20 and 864 in Q4FY19), Cimmco dispatched 250 wagons (300 in Q1FY20 and 262 in Q4FY19). Management indicated that the dispatch was affected by lack of availability of wheel sets from the Rail Wheel Factory, which is the sole supplier of wheel sets to the industry. Management mentioned that it has received permission to import wheel sets for private wagon orders and has received the first consignment as well. Besides, IR will soon start importing axles and hence, the issue should be resolved by end-Q3FY20; post this, monthly wagon production should improve from 280-300 to 450-500 wagons. Chart 1: Wagon dispatch shows signs of improvement Wagon dispatch 4,000 3,200 2,400 1,600 800 (No of wagons dispatched) wagons of (No 0 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY13 FY14 H1FY20 Source: Company, Edelweiss research Received Pune Metro order worth about INR10.6bn: TWL, along with Firema, has won the INR10.6bn tender floated by Maharashtra Metro Rail Corporation (Maha-Metro) for the design, manufacture and supply of 102 metro coaches for Pune Metro Rail. As per tender documents, the first three-car prototype trainset is required to be supplied in 78 weeks and the balance 33 trainsets in several phases over 160 weeks. This is the first-ever contract for aluminium coaches in the Indian metro rail system. Management indicated that this contract will be a game changer for the company. It mentioned that bulk of the revenue will start flowing in after supply of the prototype train and margins in this project are on a par with those in domestic wagons and coaches business. Design and prototype work on these coaches has already started in Italy. IR wagon tender: IR tender for ~10,000 wagons is likely to be finalised by end- December 2019. Incremental order inflow for the company from this tender is a key catalyst for the stock, in our view. DFC: Management expects wagon procurement for the Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) to begin in Mar-Apr 2020. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Titagarh Wagons AFR: TWL announced that the Commercial Court of Paris has approved a plan for the transfer of business and assets of AFR to another bidder and has ordered its liquidation. As a result, w.e.f. June 4, 2019, TWL is no longer in control of AFR. The entire investment in AFR was written off in Q4FY19 and starting Q1FY20, results of AFR are no longer being consolidated with TWL’s accounts. However, the company had given a Corporate Guarantee of about INR325mn in favour of a bank regarding a secured working capital limit sanctioned to AFR. We have considered this amount of about INR325mn i.e. INR2.8/share as a negative contribution in TWL’s SOTP-based valuation. Firema: Firema has turned in positive EBITDA for H1FY20 and has almost broken even at the cash level. Management expects Firema’s revenue to be flat YoY in FY20 before an improvement in FY21. As far as the INR17.4bn order for Catania Railway is concerned, work will start in FY21 with majority of the revenue likely to be booked in FY22/23. Management stated that existing orders of INR23bn in Firema have 7-8% EBITDA margin. Debt: Net debt at the consolidated level increased to INR8.2bn (INR7.6bn at end-FY19). 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Infrastructure - Railways Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q2FY20 Q2FY19 % change Q1FY20 % change YTD20 FY20E FY21E Net revenues 2,982 1,838 62.3 3,287 (9.3) 6,269 13,165 15,691 Staff costs 77 68 14.0 77 (0.6) 154 335 399 Direct costs 2,112 1,299 62.5 2,466 (14.3) 4,578 10,988 13,079 Other expenses 556 359 55.1 461 20.8 1,017 740 882 Total expenditure 2,745 1,726 59.1 3,004 (8.6) 5,749 12,063 14,361 EBITDA 237 112 110.7 283 (16.4) 520 1,103 1,330 Depreciation 31 34 (9.8) 26 18.9 56 137 185 EBIT 206 79 162.6 258 (19.9) 464 965 1,145 Interest 96 51 85.8 101 (5.1) 196 435 492 Other income 52 43 20.4 33 55.8 86 171 194 Add: Prior period items Add: Exceptional items Profit before tax 163 70 131.3 190 (14.4) 353 701 847 Provision for taxes 39 18 115.4 53 (26.1) 93 182 220 Reported net profit 123 52 136.9 137 (9.8) 260 519 627 Adjusted Profit 123 52 136.9 137 (9.8) 260 519 627 Equity capital 231 231 231 231 231 231 Diluted shares (mn) 116 116 116 115 116 116 Adjusted Diluted EPS 1.1 0.5 136.9 1.2 (9.8) 2.3 4.5 5.4 As % of net revenues Direct costs 70.8 70.7 75.0 72.9 83.5 83.4 Other expenses 18.7 19.5 14.0 16.4 5.6 5.6 EBITDA 7.9 6.1 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.5 Reported profit 4.1 2.8 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 Tax rate 24.2 26.0 28.1 26.2 26.0 26.0 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited Titagarh Wagons Company Description Incorporated in 1998, TWL is a reputed player in India’s railway sector.
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