UNIVERSITY COLLEGE UNIVERSITY of NEW SOUTH WALES AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE ACADEMY SFRATLY8: M AREA of FUTURE GOJ^FL^GT ©R PEACE
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UNIVERSITY COLLEGE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE ACADEMY SFRATLY8: m AREA OF FUTURE GOJ^FL^GT ©R PEACE ? BY ARUJUNAN NARAYANAN NOVEMBER 1989 A SUB-THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF DEFENCE STUDIES I CONTENTS PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT. MAPS. ABBREVIATIONS. GLOSSARY. 1. INTRODUCTION. 2. THE SPRATLYS. 3. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ISLANDS. (a) Strategic significance. (b) Economic significance. 4. THE CLAIMANTS, AND THE BASIS OF THEIR CLAIMS. (a) Peoples' Republic of China. (b) Republic of China. (c) Socialist Republic of Vietnam. (d) Philippines. (e) Malaysia. 5.ASSESSMENT0F EACH CLAIM. 6. FUTURE PROSPECTS. (a) Reemergence of the PRC as a maritime power in the South China Sea. (b) Possibility of maintaining the status quo. (c) Possibility of cooperation amongst the other contestants against the PRC (d) Super power intervention. (e) Emergence of Malay regionalism. (f) Reemergence of Japan as a military power. (g) Joint authority. (h) Negotiation & settlement II 7. CONCLUSION. BIBLIOGRAPHY. APPENDIX. 111 DEDICATED TO: MY FATHER NARAYANAN FOR TEACHING ME THE VALUE OF WORK. MY MOTHER VEERAMAH WHO TAUGHT ME TO LOVE HUMANITY. MY WIFE ANGAMAH FOR HER PATIENCE. IV Preface and acknowledgement. This sub-thesis is the result of assistance given by many good-hearted individuals. Without their help, it would not be possible for me to pursue the study and to complete the work within the given time. At the University College, Australian Defence Force Academy, I was fortunate to have Dr. Carlyle A. Thayer, to whom the credit, if any, should go. His encouragement, advice and guidance were of great help. Without his help, I doubt, I could have finished this work. I am equally grateful to a few in Malaysia. I am thankful to Datuk Nasruddin bin Bahari (Secretary-General, Ministry of Defence Malaysia), Mr. Abdul Hai bin Haji Zawawi (Undersecretary, Policy Division), Mr. Abdul Rahim bin Daud (Principal Assistant Secretary, Policy Division), Mr. Ramli bin Johari (Principal Assistant Secretary, Training Branch) and the members of the Selection Committee at the Ministry, for giving me an opportunity to pursue my study at the University College, Australian Defence Force Academy. I deeply appreciate their kindness and support. My sincere thanks also go to Professor John McCarthy, Dr. Hugh Smith and Dr. Roger Thompson, at the University College, for their contribution to my knowledge in defence matters. I am equally grateful to Captain John Mould, who did much to make my study and stay pleasant. I also take the opportunity to thank my friend, Captain (Navy) Juan De Leon for encouraging me to write the sub-thesis. I deeply appreciate the staff at the Library, Department of Politics, the Computer Centre, especially Mr. Phillip Berrie and the Administration for their generous help. My thanks also go to the Australian Government, particularly the Department of Defence, for sponsoring my study and the stay of my family in Canberra. It made us to appreciate and to learn the Australian way of life. V My thanks also go to my children, Dharmashaktini and Saravanan, who were deprived of my love and care, during the period of my study. Above all, my thanks go to my brother, Mr. Subramaniam Narayanan for educating me with much sacrifice. University College Arujunan Narayanan. University of New South Wales Australian Defence Force Academy Canberra. November, 1989. VI MAPS. 1. The Southern Seas (785-1644). 2. The Southern Seas (1844). 3. Islands of the South China Sea. 4. The Spratly Islands (2 maps). 5.Conflicting claims. 6. The Kalayaan Island Group and location of Kalayaan 7. Oilfield Flashpoints. 8. PLA Navy deployments. VI I Abbreviations ASW Anti-submarine Warfare. ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian nations. BC Before Christ. BR Beijing Review. CE Christian Era. COCC Coordinated Operations Control Committee. COCOM Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls. COMECON Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. COMELEC Commission of Election (of Philippines). DRV Democratic Republic of Vietnam (1954-75). ECAFE Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East. EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone. FBIS-EAS Foreign Broadcast Information Service-East Asia. PEER Far Eastern Economic Review. ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile. JDW Jane's Defence Weekly. OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. PDR Pacific Defence Reporter. PRC People's Republic of China. PRG RVN Provisional Revolutionary Government, Republic of South Vietnem. ROC Republic of China. RVN Republic of Vietnam (1955-75). SLOC Sea Lanes of Communication. SRV Socialist Republic of Vietnam. SSBN Ballistic Missile Submarine, Nuclear-Powered. SWB Summary World Broadcast. yiii UNCLOS United Nations Conference on the Laws of the Sea. UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation. US United States. USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. VTOL Vertical Takeoff and Landing. IX GLOSSARY Atoll a circular or almost circular coral reef, the crest lying at a low height above sea level, sometimes interrupted, enclosing a central lagoon. Bank an elavation in the floor of a river or a shallow sea, usually of sand, mud, gravel (not of solid rock or coral). Cay a bank or reef of sand. Coral a hard calcareous, rock-like substance formed either by the continuous skeleton or fused skeletons of members of a group of sedentary marine animals that live in colonies- only in clear, warm shallow seas, or by the skeleton or fused skeletons together with polyps that secrete it/them. Island a piece of land entirely surrounded by water. Isle a small island. Islet very small island. Reef a mass of rock or coral, sometimes of shingles or sand, occuring in the sea, usually covered at high tide, but often partly exposed at low tide. X Shoal a shallow part of a river, sea or lake; an accumulation of sand mud, pebbles creating such shallow water and in many cases dangerous to navigation. Introduction The South China Sea is a large expanse of water, 648,000 square nautical miles in area,'' that links the Pacific Ocean with the Indian Ocean. Its main axis stretches from Singapore in the south-west to Taiwan, a distance of 1,500 nautical miles wide. The shortest axis is from Vietnam to Sabah and is about 480 nautical miles. It is linked to the Indian Ocean, by the Straits of Malacca, Singapore, Sunda and the Lombok. With the Pacific it is linked by the Straits of Balabac, Formosa, Luzon and Mindoro. Its water washes the coasts of 11 states - the People's Republic of China (PRC), Republic of China (ROC), Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV), Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei, Hong Kong, Thailand and Macao. It carries the most important sea lane that links the Far East with Southeast Asia, Middle East and Europe. For centuries this route has been used by traders of many nations - Chinese, Malays, Indians and others. The Spratlys gained in strategic importance after the Cold War, as the United States (US) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), began to deploy their Pacific Fleets in this region. Sino-Soviet rivalry in 1969, added further to the strategic significance of this region. In early 1970, the forecast of potential hydrocarbon resources also added to an important economic factor to the strategic equation. All this led to the scramble for the few island groups that lie in the South China Sea. In 1975 the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) moved closer to adopting the 200 miles territorial sea limit. Presently, with the extension of jurisdiction to 200 nautical miles, almost all the area is claimed by different states and in certain areas the claims overlap (Figure 1). This has brought the claims of different nations bordering the South China Sea into conflict with each other. This may threaten the innocent passage of ships.^ Figure 1 Conflicting Claims 2 In the South China Sea, there are four important archipelagoes -the Pratas, Macclesfield Banks, Paracels and the Spratlys (Figure 2). They lie within a semi-tropical zone with average annual temperature ranging from 18° C in January (Pratas Island) to 2>2^ C in July (Spratly Island). The region is a major catchment area for the summer monsoon and rainfall averages from 1750 mm in the north to 2500 mm in the south. Most of the islets are covered with brush, grass, coconut palms and in some, mangrove swamps. Fresh water can also be found on most of the principal islands.^ Among these four island groups, the jurisdiction of Pratas and the Macclesfield was never a point of contention and were accepted as part of China unlike the Paracels and the Spratlys,.^ (a^ Pratas Islands and Reef (Tuno-sha chun-tanV It is located 190 miles southeast of Hong Kong and 250 miles southwest of Taiwan. It consists of Pratas Island which is four miles long and about one mile wide, and two submerged sand bars.^ (b) Macclesfield Bank (Chung-sha chun-taoV It is an area of submerged coral reefs about 90 miles long and 40 miles wide and lies 190 miles east-southeast of the Paracels. No part of the bank reaches closer to the surface than nine metres. The area may have oil potential. It is considered possible that new islands could be formed here.^ (c) Paracels fXisha QuandaoV It is a group of 120 islands within an area 125 miles long and sprinkled over 200 km wide of water. It lies 135 miles southeast of Hainan and 215 miles east of Vietnam. A group of 15 low lying coral reefs and tiny islands, covers in total only 3 square km of land. About 300 km by 150 km 100° 100 100 200 300 <100 500 Miles Chinese claim area 0 100 200 300 400 500 Kilometres Figure 2 Islands of the South China Sea Source: Marwyn S.